NEWS,29.01.2013

RBS faces £500m fine over Libor scandal

Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland could face a £500m ($786m, €585m) fine from British and US authorities for its role in the Libor rate-rigging affair, media said Tuesday.The Wall Street Journal, citing people briefed on negotiations, added that US authorities were pushing for a settlement of allegations that would result also in an RBS division pleading guilty to criminal charges.The newspaper said that the deal could be completed within the next fortnight and added that RBS was resisting any guilty plea amid fears it would lose clients and spark costly litigation.A spokesperson for the state-rescued bank would not be drawn on the article, simply saying: "Discussions with various authorities in relation to Libor setting are ongoing."We continue to co-operate fully with their investigations," he added in a statement.Investors meanwhile took flight at Tuesday's development. RBS shares sank 5.98% to finish at 345.80 pence on London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares, which ended 0.71% higher at 6 339.19 points.The Edinburgh-based lender is 82% owned by the British government after a vast bailout during the global financial crisis.The Libor affair erupted in June 2012 when Barclays bank was fined 290m by British and US regulators for attempted manipulation of Libor and Euribor interbank rates between 2005 and 2009.In December, Swiss banking giant UBS was slapped with fines totalling $1.5bn after a major probe by Swiss, British and US regulators revealed evidence of massive misconduct."It cannot be said that this comes as a surprise given that it was well flagged that authorities will chase RBS following the successful takedowns of Barclays and UBS," said analyst Ishaq Siddiqi at trading group ETX Capital."However, it does serve to remind us just how careless and brazen traders at these banks were, taking excessive risk to manipulate rates."The response in markets may be somewhat muted in the sessions ahead as over the months we have learnt just how deep this corruption ran through the Libor market and instead, investors are likely to breathe a sigh of relief as these charges will remove an overhang in the stock price."The Libor rate is used as a benchmark for global financial contracts worth about $300 trillion. However, the system was found to be open to abuse, with some traders lying about borrowing costs to boost trading positions or make their bank seem more secure.The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, is a flagship instrument used all over the world, affecting what banks, businesses and individuals pay to borrow money. Euribor is the eurozone equivalent.

Global tourism peaked in 2012 - UN

International tourist arrivals exceeded one billion for the first time last year, with the Asia-Pacific region posting the biggest increase in foreign visitors, and numbers will rise further in 2013, a UN body said on Tuesday. The number of international tourist arrivals grew by 4.0% to 1.035 billion in 2012, up from 996 million in 2011, the Madrid-based United Nations World Tourism Organisation said in an annual survey."2012 was a year of constant economic instability in the entire world, especially in the euro zone. Despite this international tourism managed to maintain its course," the body's Secretary General Taleb Rifai told a news conference.The organisation forecasts international tourist numbers will grow in 2013 although at a slightly lower rate of 3.0%  4.0%.Global tourism figures were hit hard by the 2008 global financial crisis, with the rise in international arrivals that year slowing to 2.1% after jumping 6.6% in the previous year.Arrivals plunged by 3.9% in 2009, its worst performance in 60 years, as the outbreak of the swine flu virus contributed to cash-strapped consumers' decision to stay home.But international tourism arrivals bounced back the following year, rising 6.6% in 2010 and by 5.0% in 2011 even though global economic crisis had not yet ended. The Asia-Pacific region posted the largest growth in visitor arrivals last year with the number of foreign tourists up by 14 million or 6.5% to 233 million.Growth in the number of foreign visitors was highest in Southeast Asia, with the number of arrivals up by 8.7% over 2011.Tourist numbers climbed 4.1% in emerging economies compared with a 3.6% rise in advanced economies.The only region to report a decline in tourist numbers compared with 2011 was the Middle East with 2.0% fewer arrivals because of political instability in popular tourist spots such as Egypt and Syria.But the drop in the number of visitors to the region was smaller than the decline of 7.0 posted in 2011, the UN body said.Asia and Africa are expected to post the greatest growth in tourist numbers this year.The agency predicts tourist arrivals will increase by 5.0%-6.0% in the Asia-Pacific region this year and by 4.0%-6.0% in Africa.The Middle East will see the number of foreign visitors to the region rise by 0 and 5.0% this year while Europe will post growth of 2.0%-3.0%.The forecast of continued growth in international tourist arrivals next year comes a week after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the global economy will grow slightly less in 2013 than expected.The IMF projects global gross domestic product annual growth of 3.5% this year, a dip of 0.1 point from its October forecast owing largely to weakness in the eurozone, and 4.1% in 2014.The UN World Tourism Organisation predicts international tourist arrivals will rise by an average of 3.8% each year between 2010 and 2020 and will reach 1.8 billion in 2030.

Japan to approve $1.02 trillion budget

Japan's cabinet was Tuesday set to approve a $1.02 trillion annual budget with boosts in defence and public works spending amid a festering territorial row with China and a renewed assault on deflation.The cabinet is expected to approve a ¥92.61 trillion budget for fiscal 2013, with revenue estimated at ¥43.10 trillion and new bond issuance at ¥42.85 trillion - the first time in four years revenue will have been greater than new bond issuance, local reports have said.The budget is down from the ¥92.9 trillion allocated in the fiscal 2012 initial budget, the first decrease in seven years, they said.But the defence budget is up by ¥40bn or about 0.8% from the previous year to ¥4.75 trillion, the first rise in 11 years, at a time Japan is embroiled in a row with China over a chain of islands in the East China Sea.Beijing has repeatedly sent vessels to the disputed waters, prompting calls in Japan for more measures to defend the Tokyo-controlled islands, called the Senkakus in Japan but known as the Diaoyus in China.Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera has said the military will add nearly 300 personnel to help defend the disputed islands.Meanwhile, public works spending rises for the first time in four years, growing by ¥710bn to ¥5.29 trillion, reports said.Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who took office in December, has pledged to pull Japan out of years of deflation by active government spending coupled with aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.Abe's government announced a $226.5bn stimulus package earlier this month.In the fiscal 2013 budget, the issuance of new government bonds decreases by ¥1.4 trillion from the preceding year to ¥42.85 trillion, Jiji Press said.The government is planning an $86bn bond sale to pay for the stimulus, stoking fears about spending by Tokyo, which already owes creditors cash equal to twice the size of its economy.

 

Japan, China set to boost economic ties

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday he was open to a meeting with Chinese leaders to rebuild ties damaged by a territorial dispute but said there was no room for negotiations on their row over a group of small islands.The remarks came after China's Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping, told a Japanese envoy sent to Beijing last week that he was committed to developing bilateral ties and would consider holding a summit meeting.Relations between the world's second- and third-largest economies plunged after the Japanese government bought three disputed islands from a private owner last September, sparking anti-Japan protests across China.Some Japanese businesses were looted and Japanese citizens attacked."It is precisely because we have a problem that we should hold the summit between leaders and have high-level talks," Abe said on a television programme, "I would like to consider a top-level summit if circumstances allow."The conservative prime minister has just increased the defence budget for the first time in 11 years and swept back to power in a December election calling for the protection of Japan's "beautiful seas".He reiterated Japan's stance on the islands, which it controls. Japan calls them the Senkaku while China calls them the Diaoyu."The Senkaku Islands are our land and China has taken provocative steps against them ... we have been clear that there is no room for negotiation on this matter," he said."But on top of that, there's an economic relationship. Japan invests in China and reaps benefits from exporting its goods there while China creates job places thanks to Japanese investment," said Abe, adding that maintaining strong economic ties were vital for both countries."If top-level meeting was necessary to achieve that, we should do it and from that point on rebuild our relationship."

NEWS,20.11.2012

Seven And A Half Things To Know: Fiscal Cliff Spurs Super-Rich Panic

Thing One: Super-Rich Super Panic: Rich Americans likely have the most on the line as we near the fiscal cliff, the New York Times notes. Their tax rates would rise under the President's plan or if lawmakers don’t reach a deal. Some are taking action in advance. The Walton family, which founded Walmart, may save as much $180 million in taxes thanks to the company’s decision to push up its dividend payout to December from January so investors can count the income for this year, according to The New York Times. If Obama and Congress fail to reach a deal this year the tax rate on dividend income could more than double. But as The NYT notes in a separate article, under Obama’s plan, rich is defined rather broadly. It could mean the super-wealthy Waltons or an individual or small business owner making more than $200,000 per year.Meanwhile, corporations also stand to lose: More than $150 billion over 10 years in tax breaks, according to the Financial Times. Some business leaders say they would graciously agree to help America by giving up their corporate tax breaks so as long as they come with more complete corporate tax reform next year. Still, it’s likely what business leaders want the most is for lawmakers to reach a solution. Stock indexes rose to their best day in two months on Monday on optimism that lawmakers would agree to a deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. There’s at least one CEO out there claims he’s willing to give up tax breaks for a solution, NASDAQ head Robert Greifeld said politicians need to worry less about “winning” and admitted that “broadening the tax base” may be necessary to get the necessary deal done. Thing Two: Walmart's Thanksgiving May Be Ruined: As Walmart’s founders are looking for ways to skirt higher taxes, some of their employees are protesting the company’s decision to make them work on Thanksgiving. More than 30,000 people have already signed an online petition protesting the company’s decision to open on Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that labor officials are trying to decide as soon as possible whether to seek an injunction on behalf of Walmart to stop planned protests at 1,000 of its store locations on Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year. Walmart claims the protests are an illegal disruption of business. Thing Three: The Twinkie Is Saved: Twinkie enthusiasts calm down, you’ll still be able to relive the tasteless 1950s as often as you’d like. Hostess Brands, the makers of Twinkies, agreed to mediation, with the Bakers Union, the group the company claimed was forcing them to liquidate. But don’t stop hoarding Cup Cakes and Ding Dongs just yet, the company isn’t positive it will reach a solution, a Hostess spokesman told the Financial Times. The two sides will meet with the bankruptcy judge that ordered the mediation Tuesday in an aim to reach a new contract and save 18,500 jobs, according to the Wall Street Journal. If they can’t reach a deal, Hostess will be able to move forward with its plans to liquidate.Thing Four: Eurozone Crisis Still Not Over: The European crisis rages on and yes, leaders are still fighting about what exactly to do. European finance ministers are racing to find a fix after deciding last week to give Greece two extra years to cut its budget deficit creating a $19 billion hole in the country’s finances and angering the IMF, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, France, one of the region’s stronger economies isn’t faring too well. Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating and slammed President Fancois Hollande’s attempts to fix the economy, according to the Wall Street Journal.Thing Five: Ex-Trader Found Guilty Of Losing Lots Of Money: In the continuing saga of finding others to blame for banks’ risky behavior, ex-UBS trader Kweku Adoboli was convicted of one count of fraud for losing the bank $2.3 billion, according to Reuters. In defending himself Adoboli had said that his managers encouraged him to push the risk limits, adding that his huge loss came “in pursuit of the goals set by our leadership.”Thing Six: Credit Suisse 2.0: Apparently when one of your rivals cuts 10,000 jobs it makes you consider a few things. Credit Suisse is splitting off its investment bank unit outside Switzerland from its global wealth bank, Swiss investment banking and wealth management units in an aim to meet the “new regulatory reality,” according to the Financial Times. The move comes just a few weeks after rival UBS slashed 10,000 jobs in its investment banking unit. The move will likely keep the bank less vulnerable to the whims of international markets and corporate finance. The bank might also get another thing added to its plate soon. The New York Attorney General’s office is planning to file a lawsuit against Credit Suisse, alleging that the bank misled investors on the quality of its mortgage-backed securities in the lead up to the financial crisis, according to Reuters. Thing Seven: People Still Don't Like PCs: The death of the PC claims another victim. Intel CEO Paul Otellini announced yesterday that he’s stepping down from his post early after not successfully shifting the chipmaker from a PC-based business to a mobile business, according to Bloomberg. The unexpected announcement may indicate the depth of the company’s woes, Intel is typically known for careful succession planning and Otellini could have stayed on for another three years, according to the Financial Times.Thing Seven And A Half: Your Favorite Thanksgiving Moments Revealed: Just two more days for Thanksgiving and the best holiday of the year can’t come soon enough. Here are the 15 best moments of Thanksgiving (many in gif form) via Buzzfeed to get you through these last 48 hours of work.

 

China escalates subsidies spat with US

China is to ask the World Trade Organisation to rule on its latest commercial spat with the United States, the WTO said on Tuesday, hoping it will back Beijing's complaint that punitive US tariffs imposed on a raft of Chinese goods are illegal.In a move that deepened the dispute, China will ask the WTO to set up a three-person dispute panel at a meeting on Nov. 30. If China wins the case and any subsequent appeal Washington could be forced to drop the tariffs it levied on 31 Chinese products which it said were being traded unfairly.The US tariffs affected photovoltaic cells and modules used in solar power, various steel products, off-road tyres, aluminium goods as well as towers for windfarms.Such capital-intensive and cyclical commodity products have frequently been at the centre of trade disputes as national industries have asked governments to step in and stop foreign competition from destroying profits and jobs.Steel products have frequently been involved, as more recently have solar power components, with the oversupplied global solar industry struggling to maintain its profit margins.The United States has been a fierce critic of what it says are clandestine Chinese subsidy programmes, but Beijing says Washington's efforts to tackle suspected wrongdoing have gone beyond the rules.China's complaint targets Public Law 112-99, which was signed by President Barack Obama in March, as well as US steps taken against suspected export-distorting subsidies between Nov. 20 2006 and the passage of the contested law.In a WTO filing, China said the US law had broken the rules because it applied retroactively to suspected Chinese subsidies as far back as 2006.The United States was also at fault, China said, because it used "double remedies" against China between 2006 and March this year.Double remedies means targeting the same Chinese exports twice over - once for being subsidised and once for being "dumped", or sold at unfairly cheap prices.China launched the complaint in September, just hours after the United States lodged a similar complaint against China's support for car exports.Under WTO rules a country accused of breaking the rules has 60 days to try to resolve the complaint, after which the complainant can ask the WTO to set up a panel of adjudicators to judge the merits of the dispute. The WTO's ruling is likely to be made public in mid-2013.

Watchdog investigates lending practices

Britain's consumer watchdog has launched investigations into several payday lenders over aggressive debt collection and expressed its concern about general poor practice within the sector.Payday lenders offer short-term loans, which are intended to be paid back when borrowers receive their wages. Britons have increasingly turned to these loans as mainstream banks have tightened their criteria for granting short-term credit."We have uncovered evidence that some payday lenders are acting in ways that are so serious that we have already opened formal investigations against them," David Fisher, the Office of Fair Trading's (OFT) director of consumer credit, said on Tuesday."It is also clear that, across the sector, lenders need to improve their business practices or risk enforcement action."The OFT identified issues around debt-collection practices, the adequacy of affordability checks made by lenders, the number of loans not repaid on time and the lack of forbearance shown by some lenders when borrowers get into financial difficulties.Wonga.com, which offers individuals short-term loans of up to 1 000 pounds, more than trebled its earnings last year. Like other payday lenders, the company has faced criticism that its annual percentage rate (APR), listed on Wonga.com as 4 214%, takes advantage of the financially vulnerable.The OFT is reviewing the whole sector and has said that some firms will face enforcement action if they do not improve their practices.Wonga said that it welcomed the OFT's review. "We provide a valued, transparent service to more than a million customers and want to see rogue practices rooted out across all financial services," it said.The OFT will publish a full report next year and state whether wider action is needed to tackle problems in the sector.

NEWS,19.11.2012

Global shadow banking hits $67 trillion

The system of so-called shadow banking blamed for aggravating the global financial crisis grew to $67 trillion globally last year, a new high, amid calls from the world's top policymakers for greater control of the sector.A report by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on Sunday appeared to confirm fears among policy makers that shadow banking is set to thrive, beyond the reach of a regulatory net tightening around traditional banks and their activities.Officials at the European Commission in Brussels see closer control of the sector as important in preventing a repeat of the financial crisis that toppled banks over the past five years and rocked the euro zone.The study by the FSB, set up by the world's top economies (G20) to police global finance, said shadow banking around the world more than doubled to £62 trillion in the five years to 2007 before the crisis struck.But the size of the total system had risen to $67 trillion in 2011, more than the total economic output of all the countries in the study.The multi-trillion dollar activities of hedge funds and private equity companies are often cited as examples of shadow banking.But the term also covers investment funds, money-market funds and even cash-rich firms that lend government bonds to banks, and which in turn use them as security when taking credit from the European Central Bank Even the man credited with coining the term, former investment executive Paul McCulley, gave a catch-all definition.McCulley said he understood shadow banking to mean "the whole alphabet soup of levered up non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures", such as the special investment vehicles that many blamed for the financial crisis.The United States had the largest shadow banking system, said the FSB, with assets of $23 trillion in 2011, followed by the euro area with $22 trillion and the United Kingdom at $9 trillion.The US share of the global shadow banking system has declined in recent years, the FSB said, while the shares of the United Kingdom and the euro area have increased.The FSB warned that tighter rules that force banks to hoard more capital reserves to cover losses could bolster shadow banking.It advocates better controls, although cautions that shadow banking reforms should be dealt with carefully because the sector can also be a source of credit for business and consumers.Forms of shadow banking can include securitisation, which can transform bank loans into a tradeable instrument that can then be used to refinance credit, making it easier to lend.In the run-up to the crisis, however, banks such as Germany's IKB stored billions of euros of such instruments in off-balance sheet vehicles, which later unravelled. Another example is a repurchasing agreement, or repo, where a player such as a hedge fund could sell government bonds it owns to a bank, agreeing to repurchase them later.The bank may then lend those bonds onto another hedge fund, taking a position on the government debt. Such agreements are used by banks to lend and borrow. A risk could arise if one of the parties in the chain collapses.The European Commission is expected to propose EU-wide rules for shadow banking next year.

 

Stocks, commodities rise on fiscal cliff hopes

World share markets and commodities surged yesterday as traders focused on politicians' indications that they are ready to compromise to avoid the US "fiscal cliff".Wall Street stocks climbed more than 1%, extending a rally that began on Friday, while crude oil was up more than 2%.US lawmakers indicated compromises were possible in negotiations to avert US$600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January - the "fiscal cliff" that threatens to send the US economy back into recession.Democratic Senator Dick Durbin said on CNN: "What I hear is a perceptible change in rhetoric from the other side."Also appearing on CNN, Republican Representative Tom Price said: "Every member of our caucus appreciates that this fiscal crisis, this challenge that we have, is ever closer."Opinion polls show that Republicans would shoulder more of the blame if the country goes over the fiscal cliff.MSCI's world equity index jumped 1.8%, in one session erasing the 1.8% drop it posted last week. Monday was the best day for the index since September 14."Stocks could rise substantially if US policymakers can negotiate a 'grand bargain' that credibly addresses long-term tax, spending, and entitlement reforms," said Jonathan Golub, strategist at UBS in New York.The Dow Jones industrial average was up 160.54 points, or 1.28% , at 12,748.85. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index was up 21.22 points, or 1.56%, at 1,381.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 46.39 points, or 1.63%, at 2,899.52.Optimism in Europe over the prospects of a deal this week to release much-needed aid for Greece also lent support.European officials are expected to discuss a two-year funding plan for Athens at a meeting on Tuesday, which would postpone any longer-term solution until after a September 2013 German general election.European Central Bank policymaker Joerg Asmussen said last weekend that the ministers were likely to agree to the deal and leave resolution of a longer-term debt stabilisation plan for Greece, at the heart of a disagreement with the IMF, until later.The euro rose 0.56% to $1.281, well above the two-month low of $1.2661 hit last week and near the top end of its recent range, suggesting the foreign exchange market expects an agreement on Greece."This message from the ECB would tell me that, yes, what we are heading to this week is an agreement that would keep Greece out of trouble for the next year or so," said Gilles Moec, senior European economist at Deutsche Bank.European share markets rebounded from last week's lows, mainly on the growing optimism over the US political negotiations.The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 2.3% higher, led by sectors tied to the pace of economic growth. Banks climbed 3.6% , with US shares of Barclays up 5.6% to $15.82.In the region's main centres, London's FTSE 100, was up 2.4%, while Frankfurt's DAX and Paris' CAC-40 rose more than 2%.Safe-haven bond markets reflected the stronger risk appetite, with the 10-year US Treasury down 10/32 to yield 1.6165%.The 10-year German government bond fell and its yield rose to 1.362% from 1.326% on Friday. Traders said there was room for yields to rise if euro zone policymakers reached an agreement at their meeting on Tuesday.In the currency markets, the dollar briefly extended its gains against the yen on expectations a new Japanese government will push the central bank to taking aggressive monetary stimulus measures to boost growth after next month's elections.The greenback was slightly lower against the yen at 81.24. Earlier, it rose to its highest level since April 25.The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting on Monday but was not expected to take any new policy steps before the December 16 vote.The rising hopes of a deal on closing the US budget gap, which has clouded the outlook for global growth, spread through commodity markets, lifting oil, copper and gold.Copper rallied 2.6% to $7,803.5 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, and gold rose $19.52 to $1,733.2 an ounce.A 0.5% drop in the dollar index, which had eased from a two-month high hit on Friday, added to demand by making commodities priced in the greenback more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel as the escalating violence between Israel and the Palestinians fuelled concern about supplies from the Middle East.Investors fear the conflict may draw in other countries and possibly disrupt energy exports from the region, which supplies more than a third of the world's crude.Brent crude for January delivery was up 2.5% and U.S. crude futures added 2.8%.

 

European stocks make biggest rebound in 10 weeks

European equities have rebounded from multi-month lows to post their biggest daily gain in 10 weeks, thanks to signs of progress in US talks to avoid a budget crisis.Leading Democratic and Republican lawmakers voiced confidence over the weekend that a deal would be reached to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of some US$600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts which threatens to plunge the United States into recession in 2013.An unexpected rise in US existing home sales for October added to the brighter sentiment towards the world's biggest economy on Monday, which has become a significant source of growth for European companies as their domestic region stagnates."The news about the fiscal cliff over the past few days has been much more positive," said Donald Huber, portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investments, which has about US$750 billion in assets under management.The FTSEurofirst 300 index provisionally closed up 2.3% to 1,091.50 points, while the EuroSTOXX 50 rose 2.8% to 2,495.19 points -- both posting their biggest one-day gain since early September and rebounding from multi-month lows.The rebound comes after EuroSTOXX 50 dipped into technically oversold territory on the seven-day relative strength index (RSI) on Friday for the first time in nearly two months.Then, a big rally followed but ran out of steam after two sessions, and this time too analysts were doubtful about the sustainability of the gains unless the fiscal cliff problem is actually resolved rather than just postponed."We had the lows and the market is oversold... so it is just short-covering," said Vincent Guenzi, chief strategist at Cholet Dupont."That [progress in negotiations] was the catalyst for the short-term gain of the market. That could help the market maybe gain 1% or 2% more, but to really have the end of the downtrend of the last weeks we need something real."Monday's broad-based rally took all the STOXX 600 sector indexes into positive territory, led by economically sensitive ones like autos, banks, construction, technology and basic resources.Healthcare, which is less dependent on economic cycles for demand, lagged with a rise of 1%.Nokia was a top gainer among individual stocks, with reports of its Lumia 920 selling out in Germany fuelling hopes of strong demand for the new smartphone.Shares in the Finnish cellphone maker added 9% on Monday, but are still down 39% since the start of 2012.Nokia is the most shorted company in EuroSTOXX 50, with 19.7% of outstanding shares on loan according to data from Markit, potentially making it vulnerable to sharp short-covering rallies on any sentiment improvement or positive news.That gives Nokia a utilisation rate - shares borrowed versus the total number available for loan - of 93.5%, against just 6.2% for EuroSTOXX 50 as a whole.

NEWS,07.11.2012

How Obama won

US President Barack Obama confounded political logic by triumphing over a sluggish economy to win a second term in office.A gruelling and often unpleasant campaign yielded, in the end, a decisive victory, built on the strong foundations laid down months ago by his crack campaign team.Here are some of the keys to Obama's win over Republican Mitt Romney.The economy, despite tepid growth rates and high unemployment, was not bad enough to doom Obama, and he appears to have finally received belated credit for halting the slide into a second Great Depression.When he took office in January 2009, the economy was losing 700 000 jobs a month, and while Americans are still dissatisfied with the economy, exit polls suggest they still blame ex-president George W Bush as much as Obama.Obama endured months of grisly monthly unemployment numbers, which told a tale of an economy struggling to gain steam.He got a break over the last few months, as the unemployment rate dipped below the psychological barrier of eight percent.Consumer confidence and optimism began to rise along with the stock market, and Americans began to feel a bit more optimistic as house prices finally began a slow rise, despite a lingering foreclosure crisis.Often criticised as aloof and professorial, Obama, in the final days of his campaign, his voice hoarse, finally seemed to strike a chord with blue collar workers who enrich the Democratic coalition in the rustbelt.In a twist of political history, Obama was helped by the embrace of his former Democratic antagonist, ex-president Bill Clinton, who buried the hatchet after Obama's defeat of his wife Hillary in the 2008 Democratic primary.Clinton, remembered for leading an era of economic prosperity, often made the case for Obama better than the president himself.The two Democratic giants will now stand together in history as the only two Democrats to win a second term since World War II.The Obama campaign made a gamble soon after Romney captured the Republican primary to go negative.Searing Obama ads and rhetoric branded the former investment manager a corporate vulture, who bought and sold firms for his own profit and heartlessly put good Americans out of work or shipped their jobs overseas.The plan was to define Romney in a harsh light before he had the chance to introduce himself to Americans with a multi-million dollar blitz of television advertising in the swing states, like Ohio, which would decide the election.Romney's limp defence of his record as head of Bain Capital, and his missteps - including a refusal to divulge his complicated offshore tax arrangements and a video in which he was seen decrying 47% of Americans as freeloaders who paid no income taxes played into the stereotype.By the time of Romney's stellar performance in the first presidential debate in October, the damage had been done.The killing of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in a daring Navy SEAL raid in 2011 did not win Obama re-election.But it bolstered the image of the president as a steely commander-in-chief who kept Americans safe and defused the classic Republican attack that Democrats are weak and cannot be trusted on national security.Kudos Obama won with the Bin Laden raid, not to mention a ruthless drone war against terror suspects abroad, may have also insulated the president against a late-election furore over the killing of the US ambassador to Libya in Benghazi.For the second election running, Obama's campaign team has reinvented the way presidential elections are won.In 2008, Obama's political brain trust, led by the intense David Plouffe, outwitted the political machine of Bill and Hillary Clinton with a delegate collection strategy that redefined the way primary campaigns are won.This time around, they defied the strong headwinds of a slowly growing economy and re-elected their president in the face of ferocious Republican opposition.The path to victory lay in the most sophisticated voter targeting and turnout machine in history, which reached all the way down to neighbourhoods and was constructed over several years.Way back in October 2011, Obama's political high command insisted to sceptical journalists that the president, smarting from a drubbing in mid-term congressional elections, could and would win re-election.The strategy: position Obama as a populist warrior for the middle class, and brand his opponent as a rich plutocrat oblivious to the suffering of regular Americans.Obama's team insisted all along that his coalition of young voters, Hispanics and African Americans, as well as the educated white middle class, would show up for him in 2012, just as they did in 2008.Republicans scoffed, but they were proven wrong.According to exit polls, 93% of African Americans backed Obama, along with 69% of Latinos and 70% of Jewish voters, and he was able to limit his losses among white voters.Obama also won an important victory among unmarried women voters, 68% of whom backed him.

 

Obama has little time to savour election triumph

Fresh from a decisive re-election win, President Barack Obama returns from the campaign trail today with little time to savour victory, facing urgent economic challenges, a looming fiscal showdown and a still-divided Congress able to block his every move.Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney last night in a gruelling presidential race and used his acceptance speech in front of a huge cheering crowd in Chicago to strike a conciliatory note toward his political opponents.But in the cold light of the 2012 election's morning-after, it was clear that even though voters have endorsed a second Obama term, the president will have a hard time translating that into a mandate to push forward with his agenda.Obama need to get back to work straight away "because he's got major problems with the economy".The "fiscal cliff" a combination of expiring tax cuts and automatic across-the-board reductions in federal spending due to come in at the end of the year could take out over half a trillion dollars from the US economy.The fact that Obama won the popular vote as well as getting more than 300 Electoral College votes meant "he's got that mandate I guess that power a little bit behind him - where he can push on."However, Americans chose to preserve the status quo of divided government in Washington.Obama's fellow Democrats retained control of the Senate and Republicans kept their majority in the House of Representatives, giving them power to curb the president's legislative ambitions on everything from taxes to immigration reform.This is the political reality that Obama - who won a far narrower victory over Romney than his historic election as the country's first black president in 2008 - faces when he returns to Washington later on Wednesday.But that did not stop him from basking in the glow of re-election together with thousands of elated supporters in his hometown of Chicago early yesterday."You voted for action, not politics as usual," Obama said, calling for compromise and pledging to work with leaders of both parties to reduce the deficit, to reform the tax code and immigration laws, and to cut dependence on foreign oil.Obama told the crowd he hoped to sit down with Romney in the coming weeks and examine ways to meet the challenges ahead though the president may be more in need of mending fences with Republican congressional leaders who wield clout in Washington.The problems that dogged Obama in his first term, which cast a long shadow over his 2008 campaign message of hope and change, still confront him. He must tackle the $US1 trillion annual deficits, rein in the $US16 trillion national debt, overhaul expensive social programs and deal with the split Congress.The immediate focus for Obama and US lawmakers will be to deal with the "fiscal cliff," a mix of tax increases and spending cuts due to extract some $US600 billion from the economy at the end of the year barring a deal with Congress. Economists warn it could push the United States back into recession.House Majority Leader John Boehner moved swiftly on the fiscal cliff issue, saying he would issue a statement on it today citing "the need for both parties to find common ground and take steps together to help our economy grow and create jobs, which is critical to solving our debt."Concern about US fiscal problems after Obama's re-election contributed to a decline in global financial markets.World shares turned lower and Wall Street stocks, which had been expected to rise on relief over the clear election outcome, opened lower partly due to fears over economic weakness in Europe.Obama also faces international challenges like the West's nuclear standoff with Iran, the civil war in Syria, the winding down of the war in Afghanistan and dealing with an increasingly assertive China.Romney, a multimillionaire former private equity executive, came back from a series of campaign stumbles to fight a close battle after besting Obama in the first of three presidential debates.But the former Massachusetts governor failed to convince voters of his argument that his business experience made him the best candidate to repair a weak US economy.The nationwide popular vote remained extremely close with Obama taking about 50% to 49% for Romney after a campaign in which the candidates and their party allies spent a combined $US2 billion. But in the state-by-state system of electoral votes that decides the White House, Obama notched up a comfortable victory.Yesterday, Obama had 303 electoral votes, well over the 270 needed to win, to Romney's 206. Florida's close race was not yet declared, leaving its 29 electoral votes still to be claimed.Romney, 65, conceded in a speech delivered to disappointed supporters at the Boston convention centre. "This is a time of great challenge for our nation," he told the crowd. "I pray that the president will be successful in guiding our nation."He warned against partisan bickering and urged politicians on both sides to "put the people before the politics."In Boston there would be "plenty of soul-searching for the Republicans over the next few weeks to find out exactly what when wrong".The party is expected to look particularly closely at how it has alienated Hispanic voters, an important constituency in Obama's victory."The fact is Republicans are going to have to do a lot of rethinking at the presidential level," Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker who lost the Republican nominating race to Romney. In the election aftermath, there were indications that partisan gridlock would persist in Washington.Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell gave no sign that he was willing to concede his conservative principles, signalling potential confrontations ahead."The voters have not endorsed the failures or excesses of the president's first term, they have simply given him more time to finish the job they asked him to do together with a Congress that restored balance to Washington after two years of one-party control," McConnell said.Obama's win puts to rest the prospect of wholesale repeal of his 2010 healthcare reform law, which aims to widen the availability of health insurance coverage to Americans, but it still leaves questions about how much of his signature domestic policy achievement will be implemented.Obama, who took office in 2009 as the ravages of the financial crisis were hitting the US economy, must continue his efforts to ignite strong growth and recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. An uneven recovery has been showing some signs of strength but the country's jobless rate, currently at 7.9%, remains stubbornly high.Obama's re-election puts him in the company of three of his past four predecessors whom voters granted a second term. He now faces the need to reshuffle his cabinet, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton planning to step down soon.In keeping control of the 100-member Senate, Democrats seized Republican-held seats in Massachusetts and Indiana while retaining most of those they already had, including in Virginia and Missouri.The Republican majority in the 435-member House means that Congress still faces a deep partisan divide as it turns to the fiscal cliff and other issues."That means the same dynamic. That means the same people who couldn't figure out how to cut deals for the past three years," said Ethan Siegel, an analyst who tracks Washington politics for institutional investors.British Prime Minister David Cameron also said Britain and the United States should make finding a way to solve the Syrian crisis a priority following Obama's re-election.

What to expect in Obama's second term

US President Barack Obama is expected to pursue an active trade agenda during his second term, centred on tough final negotiations of a new free trade pact in the Asia-Pacific region and continued challenges posed by China.

Here is a glimpse of what's ahead:

Trans-Pacific partnership agreement

Talks on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership pact date back to the administration of Republican George W. Bush, but the Obama administration relaunched negotiations in March 2010 and has overseen their expansion to 11 countries: the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Chile, Peru, Brunei, Canada and Mexico.A final deal could come in 2013, with negotiators just now beginning to grapple with the most politically sensitive issues. For the United States, the pact could require opening up protected sectors like dairy, sugar and textiles in exchange for new US export opportunities.Other countries such as Japan and South Korea could join the talks.

US-EU trade agreement

The United States and the 27-nation European Union are expected to announce a decision by the end of this year to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk, who is a member of the president's Cabinet, and EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht have led an effort over the past year to explore how to expand the already huge US-EU bilateral trade and investment relationship to create new jobs and economic growth.They are expected to release recommendations in December. Negotiations on the landmark agreement would likely start in early 2013 and take one to two years to complete.

China

Trade with China is expected to remain contentious during Obama's second term, with US manufacturers irritating Beijing by filing additional petitions for anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese products.The Obama administration is likely to file more cases against China at the World Trade Organization, and will likely face continued pressure from US companies to confront growing competition from China's state-owned and state-supported enterprises.Early this year, Obama created a trade enforcement unit to bring together resources from across the executive branch to make sure China and other countries follow the rules.The Obama administration has filed eight WTO cases against China since January 2009, compared with seven by Bush in the previous five years.Obama is likely to continue to put pressure on China to allow its currency to rise more rapidly in value, but stop short of taking any provocative move like declaring China a currency manipulator or authorizing the use of countervailing duties against undervalued currencies.

Trade promotion authority

Trade Promotion Authority, also known as "fast-track" trade legislation, allows the White House to negotiate trade agreements it can submit to Congress for straight up-or-down votes within 90 days and with no amendments.The Bush administration used fast-track authority to negotiate trade deals with 16 countries in Latin America, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region before it expired in June 2007.Obama has not sought to renew the legislation, which is generally considered essential to encouraging other countries to make their best offers in trade talks with the United States.For four years, administration officials have said they would seek the authority "at the appropriate time." While the business community would like Obama to make an early push to renew the legislation, union groups oppose it and the White House has yet to signal when it might move forward.

Obama’s plans to fix US economy

President Barack Obama, who has convinced Americans to give him another four years in office, now faces the tough task of getting the US economy to grow more quickly.Gross domestic product has struggled to expand by more than 2% a year since the 2007-09 recession and unemployment remains high at 7.9%. About 23 million Americans are either unemployed, working part-time because they can’t find full-time work, or want a job but havegiven up the search.Here are Obama’s key plans for the economy:Obama has said his jobs plan would strengthen manufacturing, help small businesses, improve the quality of education and make the country less dependent on foreign oil.He envisions 1 million new manufacturing jobs by 2016 and more than 600 000 jobs in the natural gas sector, as well as the recruitment of 100 000 math and science teachers.Repairing and replacing old roads, bridges, airport runways and schools are part of his plan to put Americans back to work. Half of the money saved from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be used to fund infrastructure projects.Unlike at the start of his first term, when a Democrat-run Congress approved Obama’s $840bn in stimulus, the president will struggle to get any new major spending plans approved by the House, which remains under Republican control.Obama has proposed cutting the government budget deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade by allowing tax cuts for upper-income Americans enacted during the George W Bush administration to expire, and by eliminating loopholes. The goal is to balance the budget down the road.Obama backs cutting the top corporate income tax rate to 28% from 35%. He has offered a long list of corporate tax breaks to end, ranging from inventory accounting to interest on overseas profits and tax provisions benefiting oil and gas companies. He wants to eliminate tax breaks for companies that send jobs and profits overseas.Half of the money saved from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be used to reduce the deficit.Obama may want to offer Ben Bernanke a third term in charge of the central bank but Fed watchers say the former Princeton professor has probably had enough after eight grueling years in the job. Bernanke’s term as chairperson expires on January 31, 2014.Fed vice-chairperson Janet Yellen is viewed as a leading candidate to succeed Bernanke and would be at least as ready to keep monetary policy ultra-stimulative until the labour market has improved substantially. Obama is likely to stick to the path he laid out in his first term, which included a broad reform of Wall Street in response to the financial crisis that blew up in 2008. Regulators are due to put in place the small print of the so-called Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Obama has promoted efforts to help troubled borrowers refinance their mortgages and benefit from record low interest rates but far fewer American homeowners have been helped than originally planned.Obama has locked horns with the regulator of government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Edward DeMarco, failing to convince him to allow the mortgage finance firms to reduce principal for borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. Resolution of the standoff is unlikely any time soon.Democrats and Republicans agree that the government’s outsized presence in the US mortgage market through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needs to be curtailed. Fannie and Freddie account for about 60% of the mortgage market.

 

Re-elected Obama faces fiscal cliff

 

Barack Obama won re-election on Tuesday night, but the US president faces a fresh challenge confronting the "fiscal cliff," a mix of tax increases and spending cuts due to extract some $600bn from the economy barring a deal with Congress. At stake are two separate issues  individual tax cuts due to expire at year's end and tens of billions of dollars in across-the board federal spending cuts due to kick in the day after New Year's Day. Failure to prevent a dive off the cliff could rattle US markets, and push the US economy into a recession, which could have global implications. How Obama fares with a familiar set of challenges most notably a Republican-controlled House of Representatives could colour his second term.Obama, who defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney based on television projections, will want to strike a deal with Washington lawmakers before December 31 or risk a recession in the first half of 2013, budget experts and Democratic aides say.His backers say his win gives him a mandate for an elusive "grand bargain" he sought in his first four-year term. Such a pact would raise new revenue, make changes to popular programs like the Medicare health program for the elderly and pare the federal deficit. "They have signalled that they want a big deal and I think Obama will be aggressive about getting it," said Steve Elmendorf, a former House Democratic senior adviser and now a lobbyist.Obama and most Democrats are at odds with Republicans in Congress over the stickiest issue  whether to let low tax rates for the wealthiest Americans expire on December 31.The president and most Democrats want to raise taxes on income earned above $250 000; Republicans want to extend the current low rates for all income levels. Financial markets and the business community crave long-term certainty and that is what a major deal envisioned by Obama is intended to tackle.A big X-factor is how congressional Republicans will respond to an Obama win. The hard line against raising revenue taken by many Republicans in the House may not abate after the election.House Speaker John Boehner said this week that his Republicans would stand firm on their position opposing any tax increases, even for millionaires, though he was speaking before the election results.Republicans kept control of the House, as expected, and Democrats were projected to maintain control of the Senate.An Obama victory "takes a lot of air out of the room for Republicans", Jim Walsh, a former Republican representative, who retired in 2009, predicted before the election. The odds of a grander deal with increased revenue though not in the form of higher tax rates goes up with an Obama victory, he said.Former Democratic representative Bart Gordon was unsure whether more conservative elements of the party, associated with the Tea Party movement, would go along so easily. "Those folks don't need much of a reason to fight," Gordon said.

Violence erupts in Athens over austerity measures

Greek police fired teargas and water cannons to disperse thousands of protesters who flooded into the main square before parliament today in a massive show of anger against lawmakers due to narrowly pass an austerity package.The violence erupted as a handful of protesters tried to break through a barricade to enter parliament, where Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is expected to barely eke out a win for the belt-tightening law despite opposition from a coalition partner.But the parliamentary session was briefly interrupted when parliament workers went on strike and opposition lawmakers walked out of the chamber in protest. Outside parliament, loud booms rang out as protesters hurled petrol bombs and police responded with teargas and stun grenades. Smoke and small fires could be seen on a street next to parliament.That came after a sea of Greeks braved a steady downpour holding flags and banners saying "It's them or us!" and "End this disaster!" stood before riot police guarding parliament.In all, nearly 100,000 protesters - some chanting "Fight! They're drinking our blood" - packed the square and side streets in one of the largest rallies seen in months, police said.Protesters held aloft Italian, Portuguese and Spanish flags in solidarity with other southern European nations enduring austerity."These measures are killing us little by little and lawmakers in there don't give a damn," said Maria Aliferopoulou, a 52-year-old mother of two living on 1000 euros a month."They are rich, they have everything and we have nothing and are fighting for crumbs, for survival."Public transport was halted, schools, banks and government offices were shut and garbage was piling up on streets on the second day of a two-day nationwide strike, called to protest against the vote.Backed by the leftist opposition, unions say the measures will hit the poor and spare the wealthy, while deepening a five-year recession that has wiped out a fifth of the country's output and driven unemployment to a record 25%.

NEWS,30.09.2012

Wall Street: Spain, central bankers, US jobs

Wall Street will open October with a busy week, highlighted by low expectations for global manufacturing data and the US jobs report. Any positive surprises may help lift the market.Spain is the wild card. And if it's played well, then the bulls might dance.The S&P 500 finished its third positive quarter in the last four on Friday, despite suffering its largest weekly percentage decline since June. For the past three months, the S&P 500 gained 5.9% - its best third quarter since 2010. In contrast, the index was down 1.3% for the week.The benchmark S&P 500 earlier this month reached its highest level since late 2007. Yet uncertainty remains over whether stocks can hold their gains against the headwinds of a struggling economy. That explains, in part, the retreat over the last several days.The S&P 500 hit a high of 1474.51 in mid-September before pulling back by a bit more than 2%. A run at 1500 seems possible, but the flurry of economic and world events ahead probably will prevent a major advance in the coming week.Bulls are betting that last week's Spanish budget proposals will be a preamble to a bailout request by Mariano Rajoy's government. The move would be seen as a first step to get the finances of the euro zone's fourth-largest economy in order and would clear some of the market uncertainty regarding the euro zone crisis.Monetary policy is also on the list of market catalysts this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak today and the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting are set for release on Thursday. The week's agenda includes meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said he believes "we could see a rebound" this week "if we get some of the stars aligning and have Spain ask for a bailout, the ECB announcing favourable terms for that bailout, and if we see the Bank of Japan announce further monetary intervention."If Spain and the ECB don't deliver, we could set ourselves up for a further lateral move in the markets," Jacobsen added. "A negative would be if Rajoy flat-out denies that they need a bailout."The ECB and BOJ are set to meet on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan's meeting extending until Friday.Factories, jobs and the US election Chinese factory and business conditions data will kick off a numbers-heavy calendar for markets. Manufacturing PMI, due on Monday, is expected to show a second straight month of contraction.A snapshot of US manufacturing activity will be provided today when the Institute for Supply Management releases its September index. The September ISM reading is expected to show another month of contraction, but at a slightly slower pace than in August. On Wednesday, the ISM will release its US services-sector Purchasing Managers' Index, which could show a slight deceleration in the pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector."We have Chinese economic data over the weekend, and we'll see how markets react on Monday," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at San Antonio, Texas-based USAA Investment Management."It seems like the market is bracing for bad numbers, meaning if they're not as bad, it could be market-positive," Latif said.Non-farm payrolls for September, due on Friday, are forecast to gain 115,000, while the US unemployment rate is seen ticking up 0.1% from August to 8.2% in September.The jobs data will come on the heels of the first of three US presidential debates, scheduled for Wednesday night.With just one month to go before election day on November 6, Wall Street will watch the economic data more closely than it usually does. In a year when the incumbent president is campaigning for a second term, the country's economic numbers tend to become more positive as election day approaches.The US stock market also tends to gain in years when incumbents are re-elected, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.For the year, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 10%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 14.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 19.6%.Recent poll numbers point to a strengthening lead by President Barack Obama, but a weak payrolls reading could give some hope to Republican challenger Mitt Romney."If Romney doesn't turn the ship with a very strong (debate) performance, the president is going to win," said Jack de Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.He said the trend in the polls has taken away some of the market uncertainty regarding the presidential election. He added that an ECB- or Spain-related headline out of Europe on Thursday could overcome almost anything that would happen Wednesday night during the debate."I think the market is coming to terms with the fact the president is ahead, and unless something significant changes, (he) will prevail.

France's Hollande faces protests over EU fiscal pact

Thousands have marched through Paris to protest against a European fiscal pact, the first major display of public anger to face President Francois Hollande since his May election.The march organised by the Left Front coalition drew trade unionists, far-left sympathisers and other opponents of the EU accord, two days before lawmakers start to debate a draft law of the budget pact in the lower house of parliament.The budget discipline pact, which Hollande supports, is expected to pass in both houses of parliament thanks to support from Socialist lawmakers helped by advocates of fiscal discipline in the centre-right opposition.But the vote has exposed rifts in Hollande's ruling coalition, with far-left allies and Greens planning to vote against it in a challenge to the increasingly unpopular Socialist leader's authority.If Hollande has to rely on opponents to pass the pact, the vote could deepen the rift in his alliance and embolden left-wing allies seeking a change of course from strict adherence to European deficit targets."To him (Hollande), this vote was a formality that simply needed to be rushed through," said Jean-Luc Melenchon, a fiery leftist orator who ranked fourth in an April presidential vote."Now he will understand this is not the case, that in France and in the rest of Europe there is an organised opposition to this pact and to all austerity policies."Wearing his signature red scarf, Melenchon marched at the head of protesters among giant banners bearing slogans such as "Francois Hollande, We Don't Want Your Treaty" and "In Greece and in France, Let's Fight Against Finance".It was the latest in a series of protests across southern Europe this week as tens of thousands took to streets in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal to voice their anger over hardship imposed by austerity policies.For Hollande, the outcry from many people who voted him into power highlights the difficulty of pleasing a largely left-wing support base even as he shuns painful cuts to welfare programmes.A 2013 budget unveiled on Friday shaves 30 billion euros off the public deficit, largely through tax increases on big businesses and the wealthy. But it avoids the type of painful austerity measures imposed elsewhere in Europe.Efforts to preserve the generous public safety net have done little to preserve Hollande's approval rating, which has plummeted since his election, hitting a low of 43 percent in one poll last week."This treaty will considerably worsen the situation in the European Union and in France," said one protester, Pierre Khalfa. "We can already see that austerity policies in Europe are leading to recession, so we need to start a movement against these policies, which will lead our country into a wall."Left Front organisers said some 40,000 people joined the Paris protest. Police declined to provide an estimate.

Economic protests in Spain, Portugal

Tens of thousands of Spaniards and Portuguese rallied in the streets of their countries' capitals on Saturday to protest enduring deep economic pain from austerity measure, and the demonstration in Madrid turned violent after Spaniards enraged over a long-lasting recession and sky-high unemployment clashed with riot police for the third time in less than a week near Parliament.The latest violence came after thousands of Spaniards who had marched close to the Parliament building in downtown Madrid protested peacefully for hours. Police with batons later moved in just before midnight to clear out those who remained late because no permission had been obtained from authorities to hold the demonstration.Some protesters responded by throwing bottles and rocks. An Associated Press photographer saw police severely beat one protester who was taken away in an ambulance.Spain's state TV said early on Sunday that two people were hurt and 12 detained near the barricades erected in downtown Madrid to shield the Parliament building. Television images showed police charging protesters and hitting them with their batons, but the violence did not appear as severe as a protest on Tuesday when 38 people were arrested and 64 injured.Earlier, the boisterous crowds let off ear-splitting whistles and yelled "Fire them, fire them!" referring to the conservative government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and venting their anger against tax hikes, government spending cuts and the highest unemployment rate among the 17 nations that use the euro currency.Freezing salariesOn Friday, Rajoy's administration presented a 2013 draft budget that will cut overall spending by $51.7bn, freezing the salaries of public workers, cutting spending for unemployment benefits and even reducing spending for Spain's royal family next year by 4%.Pablo Rodriguez, a 24-year-old student doing a master's in agricultural development in Denmark, said the austerity measures and bad economy mean most of his friends in Spain are unemployed or doing work they didn't train for.He doubts he will put his education to use in Spain until he is 35 or 40, if ever, will probably get job abroad and stay."I would love to work here, but there is nothing for me here," Rodriguez said. "By the time the economy improves it will be too late. I will be settled somewhere else with a family. One of the disasters in Spain is they spent so much to educate me and so many others and they will lose us."Madrid authorities put the number of protesters at 4 500 though demonstrators said the crowd was larger. In neighbouring Portugal, tens of thousands took to the streets of Lisbon on Saturday afternoon to peacefully protest against even deeper austerity cutbacks than Spain has imposed.Retired banker Antonio Trinidade said the budget cuts Portugal is locked into in return for the nation's $101bn bailout are making the country's economy the worst he has seen in his lifetime. His pension has been cut, and he said countless young Portuguese are increasingly heading abroad because they can't make a living at home.Robbing the people"The government and the troika controlling what we do because of the bailout just want to cut more and more and rob from us," Trinidade said, referring to the troika of creditors -the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. "The young don't have any future, and the country is on the edge of an abyss. I'm getting toward the end of my life, but these people in their 20s or 30s don't have jobs, or a future."In Spain, Rajoy has an absolute majority and has pushed through waves of austerity measures over the last nine months - trying to prevent Spain from being forced into the same kind of bailouts taken by Portugal, Ireland and Greece. But the country has an unemployment rate of nearly 25%, and the jobless rate is more than 50% for those under age 25.Investors worried about Spain's economic viability have forced up the interest rate they are willing to pay to buy Spanish bonds.Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro said on Saturday that the budget cuts for next year were necessary to ease market tensions and try to bring down high interest rates Spain must pay to get investors to buy its bonds.

NEWS,29.06.2012

European leaders' breakthrough defied expectations

Europe's leaders finally rose to the challenge of a debt crisis that has hobbled economic growth and threatened the global financial system.Markets roared their approval after leaders of the 27 European Union countries backed bold ideas to help weak countries cope with rising debt levels and frail banks.For the first time in 19 summits since the start of the crisis, the EU leaders defied low expectations Friday by announcing plans to:

—    Bail out banks, without putting any financial burden on strapped governments.

—    Ease borrowing costs on Italy and Spain, the euro region's third and fourth largest economies.

—    Seek stronger, centralized regulation to European banks.

—    Rescue floundering countries, without forcing them to make painful budget cuts if they've already made economic reforms.

—    Tie their budgets, currency and governments more tightly.

Europe's leaders trumpeted the agreement. The prime minister of Ireland  one of the five euro countries that has required emergency funds  said the plans marked a "seismic shift in European policy." British Prime Minister David Cameron said that "for the first time in some time we have actually seen steps ... to get ahead of the game."The Dow Jones industrial average recorded one of its biggest gains of the year, and stocks advanced even further in Europe  in strong and weak countries alike. The benchmark stock index in Germany rose 4.3 percent, by far its best performance this year. Germany has the healthiest economy in Europe, and a warm reaction there was a crucial sign of approval for the plan. Prices for oil and other commodities shot higher.The decisions made at the European Union summit in Brussels won't end the crisis that has gripped Europe for nearly three years. Plenty of questions remain about how the bank bailouts would work, whether there's enough money committed to rescue banks and governments and whether impoverished, indebted Greece will be forced out of the euro club.But for EU leaders who have consistently underwhelmed their exasperated publics and nervous financial markets, Friday's plans marked a breakthrough.At first it looked like the summit would produce little more than a modest plan to stimulate growth in Europe. But Italy and Spain, whose borrowing costs have soared to dangerous levels, refused to sign off on a $150 billion spending plan unless something was done to ease their financial burdens.So the leaders signaled a willingness to expand the use of Europe's two rescue funds. The money could be used to buy bonds to drive down a country's borrowing costs. Or it could be loaned directly to troubled banks, which would EU leaders said would help break "the vicious cycle" in which weak banks and weak governments threaten to drag each other down.Before the summit, European leaders insisted that bailout funds be used only to rescue governments  like Ireland, Portugal and Greece. If money was going to be used for banks, it had to first go to a government, which then funneled it to the troubled banks. But that added to the debt on a government's books because it was responsible for repaying the money.So efforts to help the banks ended up raising fears about governments. That is why Spain's borrowing costs rose dramatically after the eurozone countries agreed to lend it $125 billion to rescue its banks.The EU plans also call for a single regulator probably the European Central Bank to oversee Europe's banks. Currently, banks are regulated by their national governments such as Spain's, which have been slow to recognize loan problems and shut down the worst banks.As part of a broad "banking union" the new regulator will likely get power to close failing banks if their national regulators won't do it. The plan is also expected to include deposit insurance across Europe. Individual European countries now insure bank deposits within their borders. But bank failures could overwhelm those national funds.The bank overhaul is supposed to be completed by the end of the year.The leaders said they were committed to linking their countries closer together economically and politically. But they put off the hard work of closer integration, which is likely to require countries to give up some of their taxing and spending powers to a European budget authority.Most analysts cheered the EU plans but worried about the questions left unanswered. And they said the bailout funds are too small to handle the tasks that could be thrown at them.Europe's two bailout funds have a combined $625 billion in lending power; up to $125 billion of that is already committed to helping Spain bail out its banks. The remaining $500 billion looks small compared to $3.1 trillion in Spanish and Italian bonds outstanding.The solution hovering in the background, say some economists, is the European Central Bank. The ECB could buy any necessary amount of government bonds, backed if need be by the bank's theoretically limitless power to create new money. So far the bank has been unwilling to take this step, which could risk running afoul of its mandate to fight inflation and a ban on central bank financing governments. The ECB's next policy meeting is Thursday in Frankfurt.The summit deal leaves out crucial details of just how any bank bailouts would work. Would bank creditors have to take a loss on their investments, or would taxpayers foot the whole bill? The deal didn't specify.If the banking regulator and a rescue fund take ownership stakes in failed banks, manage those stakes in the taxpayer interest while forcing losses on shareholders and creditors, it could be positive, said Clemens Fuest, an expert in public finance at Oxford University's Said Business School.Otherwise, simply charging taxpayers could be "a huge burden on growth in Europe for a very long time," Clemens said.

German lawmakers OKs fiscal pact, euro fund

German lawmakers on Friday approved Europe's new budget-discipline pact as well as the eurozone's permanent €500 billion ($623 billion) rescue fund, hours after Chancellor Angela Merkel defended concessions she made to financially troubled European nations at a summit.A solid majority of more than two-thirds of all lawmakers of Parliament's lower house endorsed the two sets of legislations in a late night session, following urgent calls by Merkel to back the projects deemed crucial to stabilizing the 17-nation currency zone.Merkel said supporting the fiscal pact and rescue fund sent "a signal of unity and determination, domestically and abroad; a signal toward overcoming the European government debt crisis sustainably, and a signal that for us Europe means our future.""With these agreements, we are taking irreversible steps toward a sustainable stability union," she said.The plans had support from Germany's two main opposition parties. A two-thirds majority was needed for the fiscal pact because it involves an internationally binding commitment to keep Germany's deficit low.Parliament's upper house, which represents Germany's 16 states, is expected to approve both plans later in the evening, but its approval doesn't mean that the legislation will take effect immediately.Germany's Federal Constitutional Court has asked President Joachim Gauck not to sign it into law immediately after Friday's parliamentary votes so that it has time to decide on expected calls for injunctions blocking the legislation. A decision could take as much as a few weeks.Lawmakers voted 491-111 Friday with six abstentions to back the discipline pact  the so-called fiscal compact to which 25 of the European Union's 27 members have signed up.Lawmakers also voted 493-106 in favor of the rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, with five abstentions.The fund is meant to be operational next month, which required lawmakers to pass the legislation at the latest on Friday. Germany must pay about €22 billion in capital to underwrite the fund, and it guarantees about a third of its lending capacity.Merkel noted that, in the future, countries will have to implement the fiscal pact to be eligible for aid from the ESM. "There is a legal link between solidity and solidarity, and I consider that very important," she said.In her speech a few hours after returning from the summit in Brussels, Merkel defended concessions she had made there. She assured lawmakers that help to struggling countries and banks will still come with strings attached and insisted that some decisions were misunderstood.Merkel had been opposed, at least in the near term, to some of the measures that she and the other 16 leaders of the euro countries agreed upon Friday. They include allowing Europe's bailout fund in the future to give money directly to a country's banks, without imposing strict austerity conditions on the government.German media headlines immediately after the summit portrayed the outcome as a political defeat, but Merkel said her tough-love approach was intact.Merkel told Parliament it was a "sensible decision" to allow countries that pledge to implement reforms demanded by the EU's executive Commission to tap rescue funds without having to go through the kind of tough austerity measures demanded of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. It was a concession to Italy and Spain in particular.Merkel insisted it was only about helping countries whose financial stability is threatened by high interest rates but don't need to be taken off markets all together.She said there will always be conditions and a time frame, which will be supervised, and told lawmakers they should read the EU Commission's current economic policy recommendations for Italyand Spain  "they are tough conditions.Heading in to the Thursday-Friday summit in Brussels, Merkel had appeared thoroughly uncompromising  insisting on the importance of getting budgets in order and improving eurozone strugglers' competitiveness while brushing aside talk of shared debt liability in Europe.But in a victory for Spain and Italy, she agreed that funds set up to bail out indebted governments could be allowed to funnel money directly to stressed banks, once an "effective single supervisory mechanism" for banks is set up.Merkel said that it was a matter of "several months or perhaps a year" but that having an effective supervisor that could set and enforce conditions "changes the conditions for the question of how we can deal with banks in the eurozone."