Showing posts with label scenario. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scenario. Show all posts

Thursday, June 7, 2012

NEWS, 07.06.2012.

Greece pressured to close down banks

The European Commission is pressing Greece to wind down certain banks, possibly including its fifth-largest lender ATEbank, EU sources said.Although it is the responsibility of Greece's central bank to close a struggling lender, the EU's executive also has a say under state-aid rules, which allow it to refuse a request to rescue a bank if the Commission considers it too costly to save - effectively forcing the bank to be wound up.Throughout the crisis, the Commission has rarely used the full extent of its state-aid powers and few European banks have been closed. If it were to use them in Greece, it would mark a more aggressive stance in tackling weak European banks at the heart of the crisis. It could use the same powers to wind up banks in Spain and Portugal, one of the sources said."We are moving into a new phase with Greece, Portugal and Spain," said one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. "Some banks are going to be squeezed. Some are going to be closed down."It is always a balance," the source said, explaining that if a bank is central to a country's financial stability it might need rescuing, but otherwise it may have to be let go."If you have a financial stability component, then you could be prepared to rescue a bank, but we are beyond that point now in a number of countries," the official said. "ATEbank will have to be closed or wound down over time."ATEbank, the Greek central bank and the Greek finance ministry all declined to comment. ATEbank management has in the past proposed merging all state-controlled banks, including the Hellenic Postbank, into one.If ATEbank were shuttered, meanwhile, it would not mean that the whole of Greece's banking system was collapsing. Other key Greek banks are not the same danger and could benefit from any refocused capital.No decision will be taken until after Greece holds elections on June 17. The outcome of the vote, which polls suggest could be won by a far-left coalition opposed to Greece's EU/IMF bailout, could fundamentally change Greece's ties to the EU.Last month, Greece's four biggest banks, National Bank , Alpha, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank , received 18 billion euros in capital under the joint EU/IMF bailout, a 130-billion-euro programme that involved writing down the value of Greece's privately-owned debt, including sovereign bonds held by Greek banks.ATEbank, a state-owned agricultural lender founded in 1929, did not get money under the bailout after failing to present a plan for its own longer-term commercial viability and is now the focus of concern, the sources said.The Greek authorities have started to make early preparations to wind down ATEbank, a process of liquidation that would not mean immediate closure but which is expected to begin in the second half of the year, one of the sources said.A Greek government source said shutting down the bank was a likely scenario, but reiterated the importance of the elections and said it would be some time before a decision was taken.A spokesman for Joaquin Almunia, the EU's competition commissioner, said a restructuring plan for ATEbank, approved last year, envisaged further steps to restore the bank to health. This could include recapitalisation measures."We expect new aid measures to be notified to the Commission. When this is the case we will assess the situation of the bank," the spokesman said.Under any winding up, depositors, who had more than 17 billion euros at the bank as of September last year, would be protected by the country's deposit guarantee scheme, which protects the first 100,000 euros of any deposit.The resources to pay for the winding down, which could include setting up a bad bank for risky loans, would come from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, at least in part. The Hellenic Stability Fund was set up in July 2010 to help restabilise Greece's banking system.Any closure of a bank in Greece, whose future could determine the survival of the euro, would be highly sensitive. None of the country's major banks were wound up in the crisis.But officials believe the money left in the country's aid programme - around 7 billion euros currently, with the possibility of 25 billion more from the EU/IMF bailout funds - is insufficient to recapitalise all banks and that some must be sacrificed to secure the most important lenders.Dire situation Greek banks suffered heavy losses on the government bonds they own when the country negotiated a writedown of its debt, known as private sector involvement (PSI), earlier this year."This is such a dire situation," said another source. "PSI left Greek banks with huge writedowns and many have negative capital as a result. We cannot recapitalise all the banks."Some in the Greek administration fear that closing a bank could send an unwelcome signal."At this particular moment, you have the issue that the closing of a bank can trigger higher depression because of the perception," said one Greek official. "They are going to create even more destabilisation in the economy."ATEbank, which failed a pan-European stress test last July, had customer loans of more than 20 billion euros in September 2011, the most recent records available. The bank, which expanded beyond its agricultural roots into mainstream commercial banking between 2000 and 2009, racked up heavy losses on bad loans to farmers and consumers and suffered a large writedown in the value of its Greek government bond holdings.In the absence of a pan-EU framework to wind down banks, the Commission's power under the state-aid regime, has made it the bloc's de facto resolution authority for troubled lenders.Winding up a bank in Greece would be left chiefly to the country's central bank and the European Central Bank.While the United States has closed hundreds of banks since the subprime mortgage crisis, European countries have been reluctant but there has been a gradual shift in this thinking."In Europe, weak banks one way or another have been taken over by bigger banks," said a central bank source."However, I think there are some cases where this is difficult because the condition of the banks is such that it doesn't make sense to keep the bank alive."Ireland's Anglo Irish Bank and Germany's WestLB are among the rare examples of banks that were shuttered in the crisis. Denmark also closed a number of small lenders.

 

UK retail bosses take bonus cuts

 

The chief executives of major British retailers J Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer have both taken cuts in their bonuses after failing to meet targets and as recession forces them to scale back growth plans.Philip Clarke, head of rival Tesco, last month forewent his annual bonus, paying the price for a weak performance in the UK and heading off an outcry by investors increasingly critical of excessive executive pay.Marks & Spencer's (M&S) annual report published yesterday showed that Chief Executive Marc Bolland has taken the biggest pay cut to date among Britain's leading retailers.M&S, Britain's biggest clothing retailer, said Bolland's total pay and bonus package of just under 1.7 million pounds ($2.6 million) last year was over 60% below the 4.4 million pounds he received the year before.On top of a basic salary of 975,000 pounds, pension contributions and perks such as a car and driver, Bolland received a bonus of 663,000 pounds last year which was roughly a third of his full entitlement of up to 200% of salary.Sixty% of his full bonus entitlement is dependent on profit before tax and he received nothing in relation to this performance measure after a 1.2% drop - the first fall in three years.The cut comes amidst a round of high profile shareholder revolts overexecutive pay at companies like Barclays, Inmarsat and Prudential in a phenomenon dubbed the "shareholder spring".Investor resistance to big pay rises at underperforming firms have also led some executives such as Aviva boss Andrew Moss, and Sly Bailey, head of newspaper group Trinity Mirror, to quit.Even at companies managing to outperform some executives have chosen to err on the side of caution.Sainsbury said Chief Executive Justin King had taken a 9% cut in his overall package, despite the fact Britain's No.3 grocer last month posted 7% rise in full-year profit that came in at the top end of expectations.King's basic salary rose to 920,000 pounds from 900,000 a year earlier but his annual cash bonus, share awards and long-term incentive plan all received haircuts, reducing his total package to just under 3.4 million pounds from 3.7 million a year ago.King had been entitled to a cash bonus of up to 125% of salary but received 55.9% after the remuneration committee at Sainsbury judged that while profit came in on target, sales had been "below threshold".Many of Britain's retailers are struggling as shoppers grapple with higher prices, muted wage growth and government cutbacks; with confidence further undermined by worries over job security, a shaky housing market and the euro zone crisis.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

NEWS,23.05.2012.


Euro zone to prepare for Greek exit scenario say sources

 

Each euro zone country will have to prepare a contingency plan for the eventuality of Greece leaving the single currency, euro zone sources said today.Officials reached the consensus on Monday afternoon during an hour-long teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG).As well as confirmation from three euro zone officials, Reuters has seen a memo drawn up by one member state detailing some of the elements that euro zone countries should consider.The EWG consists of officials who prepare meetings of finance ministers and also form the board of the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).It consists mostly of deputy finance ministers and senior treasury officials."The EWG agreed that each euro zone country should prepare a contingency plan, individually, for the potential consequences of a Greek exit from the euro," said one euro zone official familiar with what was discussed on the call."Nothing was prepared so far on the euro zone level for now, for fear of leaks," the official said.A second official confirmed the EWG agreement. The situation in Greece, which faces elections on June 17, seems certain to be discussed at an EU summit later today.The Greek finance ministry denied in a statement that there was agreement to prepare contingency plans."The Ministry of Finance categorically denies the reports stating that during the teleconference of the Euro Working Group on May 21st 2012, it was agreed that each eurozone country should prepare contingency plans for the potential consequences of a departure of the Hellenic Republic from the single currency area," the statement said.But Belgian Finance Minister Steven Vanackere, asked by reporters ahead of the EU summit, said:"All the contingency plans (for Greece) come back to the same thing: to be responsible as a Government is to foresee even what you hope to avoid.""We must insist on efforts to avoid an exit scenario but that doesn't mean we are not preparing for eventualities. I believe many countries have their contingency plans for the things they want to avoid at all cost, like terrorist attacks, and to say that we don't have a contingency plan would be irresponsible," Vanackere said.The Greek election, the second in two months, is widely seen as a referendum on whether the debt-laden country should stay in the euro zone and undertake painful reforms and austerity, or leave and try its luck with its own currency.Polls suggest the vote could go either way.50-billion-euro goodbye? The document detailed the potential costs to individual member states of a Greek exit and said that if it came about, an "amiable divorce" should be sought.It also said that if Greece were to decide to leave, the EU/IMF could give it up to 50 billion euros to ease its path.The document said Athens would bear huge costs if it decided to abandon the currency, while other euro zone countries would have more limited costs.But the paper said that the risk of knock-on effects that could hit other euro zone countries under market scrutiny now was underestimated."The markets will definitively distrust the euro," the paper said.Germany's Bundesbank said yesterday a Greek exit from the euro would be "manageable".The German central bank also said euro zone states should have a say on further payments of aid to Greece under its 130 billion euro bailout programme.So far the euro zone has disbursed 38.4 billion euros from the second bailout programme to Greece.The emergency lending is linked to conditions of tough reforms, which most Greeks oppose.The euro zone also lent Greece 34.5 billion euros to help Athens complete a debt restructuring in which private investors had to write off almost three quarters of what Greece owed them."Greece is threatening not to implement the reform and consolidation measures that were agreed in return for the large-scale aid programmes," the Bundesbank said."This jeopardises the continued provision of assistance. Greece would have to bear the consequences of such a scenario."