Obama leery of intervention in Mideast
From Egypt to Syria to Iraq and beyond, the Obama
administration is determined to show it will only go so far to help save
nations in chaos from themselves.
President Barack Obama has long made it clear that he favours a foreign policy of consultation and negotiation, but not intervention, in the persistent and mostly violent upheavals across the Mideast. And he appears determined not to deviate this week even to help reverse turbulence in Egypt, one of the United States' most important Arab allies.
US officials say the Obama administration delivered pointed warnings on Tuesday to three main players in the latest crisis to grip Egypt as hundreds of thousands of protesters flooded Tahrir Square in Cairo to demand President Mohammed Morsi's ouster over his hard-line Islamist policies. The powerful Egyptian military appeared poised to overthrow him.
The administration stopped short of demanding that Morsi take specific steps, the officials said, and instead offered strong suggestions that are backed by billions of dollars in US aid to ease the tensions.
The US officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly about the delicate diplomacy that is aimed at soothing the unrest and protecting Egypt's status as a bulwark of Mideast stability. Yet the warnings were unlikely to placate the protesters gathered at the site of Egypt's Arab Spring revolution two years ago, many of whom have accused the US of siding with Morsi.
"The United States is only looking after their interests. They will only bet on the winning horse, and the winning horse is always chosen by the people," an ultraconservative member of the Salafist movement who would only identify himself as Amr, aged 31, said on Tuesday night at Tahrir Square. "At the end of the day it is the people who say that who stays and who goes."
Two thirds opposed to war
It should come as little surprise that Obama, who is grappling with a recovering economy, a war-weary public at home and diminished US status as a global superpower abroad, would not wade into foreign conflicts. Obama campaigned by promising to end the war in Iraq, which he did in 2011; he now plans to withdraw most, if not all, US troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year and inevitably will face pitched pleas from Kabul to reconsider as the deadline nears.
US polls indicate that two-thirds of Americans have opposed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"The burdens of a young century cannot fall on American shoulders alone," Obama wrote in his 2010 National Security Strategy. "Indeed, our adversaries would like to see America sap our strength by overextending our power."
Despite pressure from some in Congress and its allies abroad, the Obama administration refused until last month to give weapons to Syrian rebels who for more than two years have been battling to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad. The arms a tepid show of guns, ammunition and shoulder-fired anti-tank grenades only came after US intelligence concluded that Assad had used chemical weapons against his own people.
Other Sunni-dominated Mideast nations, most notably Qatar, have provided heavier weapons to help the rebels beat back Iranian forces and aid that is flowing to Assad's regime. An estimated 93 000 people have been killed in the fighting.
Rebel commanders have been underwhelmed by the US support, saying they need enough firepower to stop Assad from using chemical weapons again, and to stop his tanks and heavy artillery. The Free Syrian Army, which is made up of some opposition forces, also wants allies to establish a no-fly zone over Syria to prevent Assad's superior air power from crushing the rebels or killing civilians.
Light weapons 'insufficient, insulting'
The White House is, at best, highly reluctant to create such a territory over which warring aircraft are not allowed to fly. The US and international allies have enforced them in several military conflicts over the past two decades.
Even American officials say the help to Syria is not enough.
The light weapons are "clearly not only insufficient, it's insulting", said Senator John McCain, a leading Republican proponent of taking a bigger military role in Syria.
McCain and several other hawkish Republican also have criticised Obama for withdrawing US forces from Iraq, where violence has dramatically escalated since their departure 18 months ago.
The Obama administration agreed to the longstanding 2011 withdrawal deadline, which was set by the Republican administration of President George W Bush, after negotiations fell through to keep some US forces in Iraq. But American officials involved in the negotiations have blamed the White House for making only a weak effort to keep troops in the country and being all too happy when the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad refused to let them stay.
Despite nearly nine years of war that aimed to stabilise Iraq during which nearly 4 500 US troops were killed and about $800bn in taxpayer money was spent near-daily bombings and other attacks continue. And the White House rarely, if ever, discusses Iraq except to pat itself on the back for leaving.
America's role
In June alone, 761 Iraqis were killed and nearly 1 800 wounded in terror-related violence, the UN envoy in Baghdad said in a statement this week. Comparatively, that's about twice as many killed in the deadliest month of 2011 before the American troops left, according to data from the British-based Iraq Body Count.
Tamara Cofman Wittes, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state from late 2009 until early this year, said the White House cannot afford to take its eye off the Mideast even as Obama tries to refocus on Asia and Africa. Even so, the administration's strategy in the Mideast may be a not-so-subtle reminder that the US is no longer willing or able to play either world policeman or peacekeeper.
"One of the things that many Americans questioned in the wake of the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan is whether the United States in fact can be successful in stabilising unstable parts of the world," Wittes, now director of the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute think tank, said on Tuesday.
"The Obama administration has set itself the task not only of closing the chapter on a decade defined by two wars and reorienting not only America and its expectations for its role in the world, but reorienting other countries' expectations for the role America will play," she said.
President Barack Obama has long made it clear that he favours a foreign policy of consultation and negotiation, but not intervention, in the persistent and mostly violent upheavals across the Mideast. And he appears determined not to deviate this week even to help reverse turbulence in Egypt, one of the United States' most important Arab allies.
US officials say the Obama administration delivered pointed warnings on Tuesday to three main players in the latest crisis to grip Egypt as hundreds of thousands of protesters flooded Tahrir Square in Cairo to demand President Mohammed Morsi's ouster over his hard-line Islamist policies. The powerful Egyptian military appeared poised to overthrow him.
The administration stopped short of demanding that Morsi take specific steps, the officials said, and instead offered strong suggestions that are backed by billions of dollars in US aid to ease the tensions.
The US officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly about the delicate diplomacy that is aimed at soothing the unrest and protecting Egypt's status as a bulwark of Mideast stability. Yet the warnings were unlikely to placate the protesters gathered at the site of Egypt's Arab Spring revolution two years ago, many of whom have accused the US of siding with Morsi.
"The United States is only looking after their interests. They will only bet on the winning horse, and the winning horse is always chosen by the people," an ultraconservative member of the Salafist movement who would only identify himself as Amr, aged 31, said on Tuesday night at Tahrir Square. "At the end of the day it is the people who say that who stays and who goes."
Two thirds opposed to war
It should come as little surprise that Obama, who is grappling with a recovering economy, a war-weary public at home and diminished US status as a global superpower abroad, would not wade into foreign conflicts. Obama campaigned by promising to end the war in Iraq, which he did in 2011; he now plans to withdraw most, if not all, US troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year and inevitably will face pitched pleas from Kabul to reconsider as the deadline nears.
US polls indicate that two-thirds of Americans have opposed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"The burdens of a young century cannot fall on American shoulders alone," Obama wrote in his 2010 National Security Strategy. "Indeed, our adversaries would like to see America sap our strength by overextending our power."
Despite pressure from some in Congress and its allies abroad, the Obama administration refused until last month to give weapons to Syrian rebels who for more than two years have been battling to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad. The arms a tepid show of guns, ammunition and shoulder-fired anti-tank grenades only came after US intelligence concluded that Assad had used chemical weapons against his own people.
Other Sunni-dominated Mideast nations, most notably Qatar, have provided heavier weapons to help the rebels beat back Iranian forces and aid that is flowing to Assad's regime. An estimated 93 000 people have been killed in the fighting.
Rebel commanders have been underwhelmed by the US support, saying they need enough firepower to stop Assad from using chemical weapons again, and to stop his tanks and heavy artillery. The Free Syrian Army, which is made up of some opposition forces, also wants allies to establish a no-fly zone over Syria to prevent Assad's superior air power from crushing the rebels or killing civilians.
Light weapons 'insufficient, insulting'
The White House is, at best, highly reluctant to create such a territory over which warring aircraft are not allowed to fly. The US and international allies have enforced them in several military conflicts over the past two decades.
Even American officials say the help to Syria is not enough.
The light weapons are "clearly not only insufficient, it's insulting", said Senator John McCain, a leading Republican proponent of taking a bigger military role in Syria.
McCain and several other hawkish Republican also have criticised Obama for withdrawing US forces from Iraq, where violence has dramatically escalated since their departure 18 months ago.
The Obama administration agreed to the longstanding 2011 withdrawal deadline, which was set by the Republican administration of President George W Bush, after negotiations fell through to keep some US forces in Iraq. But American officials involved in the negotiations have blamed the White House for making only a weak effort to keep troops in the country and being all too happy when the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad refused to let them stay.
Despite nearly nine years of war that aimed to stabilise Iraq during which nearly 4 500 US troops were killed and about $800bn in taxpayer money was spent near-daily bombings and other attacks continue. And the White House rarely, if ever, discusses Iraq except to pat itself on the back for leaving.
America's role
In June alone, 761 Iraqis were killed and nearly 1 800 wounded in terror-related violence, the UN envoy in Baghdad said in a statement this week. Comparatively, that's about twice as many killed in the deadliest month of 2011 before the American troops left, according to data from the British-based Iraq Body Count.
Tamara Cofman Wittes, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state from late 2009 until early this year, said the White House cannot afford to take its eye off the Mideast even as Obama tries to refocus on Asia and Africa. Even so, the administration's strategy in the Mideast may be a not-so-subtle reminder that the US is no longer willing or able to play either world policeman or peacekeeper.
"One of the things that many Americans questioned in the wake of the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan is whether the United States in fact can be successful in stabilising unstable parts of the world," Wittes, now director of the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute think tank, said on Tuesday.
"The Obama administration has set itself the task not only of closing the chapter on a decade defined by two wars and reorienting not only America and its expectations for its role in the world, but reorienting other countries' expectations for the role America will play," she said.
US 'very concerned' about Egypt
The United States said on Wednesday it was "very concerned" about developments in Egypt's political crisis, and urged President Mohammed Morsi to "do more" to address the concerns of protesters.
"We do remain very concerned about what we are seeing on the ground in Egypt," state department spokesperson Jen Psaki said. "We feel there was an absence of significant steps laid out by President Morsi."
Washington believes he "should do more" to address the concerns of the Egyptian people, she told reporters, noting: "Actions speaker louder than words."
Psaki said Morsi's proposal for a unity government was one that had been "made in the past," and which "others in Egypt felt was not sufficient enough".
She, however, was careful to note that it was not up to Washington to judge.
When asked if Washington would consider cutting military aid to Cairo, the spokesperson said: "It would be premature to suggest that we have taken steps or are thinking about taking steps."
President scrambles to save Portugal
Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva on Wednesday took steps to settle a political crisis that threatened to topple the government, after two ministers resigned over austerity policies agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Cavaco Silva was to meet Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho and party representatives on Thursday, the president's office announced.
Before that, the president was scheduled to meet Socialist opposition leader Antonio Jose Seguro.
Cavaco Silva was coming under growing pressure to dissolve parliament and to call early elections after the resignations of the finance minister, Vitor Gaspar, and the foreign minister, Paulo Portas, brought the government to the verge of collapse this week.
Hundreds of demonstrators gathered to demand that Passos Coelho step down. The main trade union confederation, CGTP, has announced a rally for Saturday to demand early elections.
Passos Coelho said Tuesday he would not accept the resignation of Portas, but would try to reach an agreement with the party the foreign minister heads, the conservative-nationalist CDS-PP.
The party is the junior coalition partner of Passos Coelho's Social Democratic Party (PSD). If other ministers belonging to the CDS-PP follow the example of Portas and resign, Passos Coelho will lose his absolute majority in parliament.
That would make it difficult for him to complete the €78bn bailout programme agreed with the EU and the IMF in 2011.
The government crisis has made stock markets plunge, while the yields for Portuguese bonds has gone up.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has warned that "the financial credibility recently built up by Portugal could be jeopardized by the current political instability."
Gaspar, who was the main architect of the austerity policies applied under the bailout programme, justified his resignation by saying he had failed to meet budget deficit targets. He also cited widespread opposition to his spending cuts.
Portas said he was stepping down over the choice of Maria Luis Albuquerque as Gaspar's successor.
The CDS-PP wants to soften the government's austerity policies, while Albuquerque is known as a staunch supporter of Gaspar's budget crackdown.
Spending cuts and economic reforms have helped Portugal reduce borrowing costs and the budget deficit, which went down to 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2012, from 10.1% in 2010.
But the economy has been in recession for two years and is expected to shrink by 2.3% this year. Unemployment has climbed to nearly 18%.
The EU is confident that Portugal can weather its political crisis, an official said in Brussels.
"It's obvious that it would have been our strong preference if the stability of the government had been maintained," the EU official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"But I'm quite relaxed ... Portugal is well-financed. I have no concerns whatsoever for the whole of 2013."
Germany stressed the need for Portugal to adhere to the course of austerity. "The German government is confident that Portugal will stick to the agreed reforms," spokesperson Steffen Seibert said in Berlin.
Eurozone finance ministers are expected to discuss the Portuguese situation when they next meet on Monday in Brussels.
Experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF are then scheduled to launch a review mission to examine the country's economic progress and pave the way for the next stage of its bailout.
The EU official noted that the process would be more difficult if the Portuguese government announced new elections.
Union boss urges French labour reform
The new chief of France's main employers union pressed on Wednesday for a 'Round 2' of labour reform, urging President Francois Hollande for a further overhaul on the day a first, hard-fought deal entered the law books.
Pierre Gattaz's remarks on his first day as MEDEF leader showed a combative chief ready to pile pressure on a Socialist government that many economists have criticised for not going far enough in its structural reform programme.
The 53-year-old is to meet Hollande and Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault this week to discuss upcoming reforms, including an overhaul of an indebted pension system.
"Our companies are terrorised by a labour code that is too complex and stops them from hiring," Gattaz told journalists in an acceptance speech. "This shouldn't last, and it won't last."
France's labour reform deal took effect on Wednesday after months of tense debate and street protests, and it is still disputed by trade unions on the far left. Few public figures have spoken out in favour of any further changes.
Gattaz, chief executive of connector maker Radiall, was the sole candidate to succeed MEDEF chief Laurence Parisot after she lost an internal battle to alter the group's statutes and extend her eight-year term.
The son of a notoriously combative former MEDEF chief, Gattaz took over the powerful group, equivalent to Germany's BDA employer association and Italy's Confindustria lobby, by rallying less well-connected rivals to his camp.
Saying he will bring a "fighting spirit" to talks on reforms to job training and pensions, his hard-charging tone breaks with Parisot's diplomatic approach.
His call to raise the legal retirement age from the current 62, in line with recommendations from the European Commission, also goes against the views of Hollande, who has ruled it out in favour of lengthening the pay-in period.
On labour rules, Gattaz will retain the services of Patrick Bernasconi as chief negotiator after he brokered a landmark deal to loosen regulation in January.
Bernasconi advocates a far-reaching second round of labour reform to end the 35-hour working week and give firms more power to reach in-house wage and work-time deals, he told business daily Les Echos in May.
Portugal's political crisis deepens
Two more Portuguese ministers from the junior ruling coalition party were ready to resign on Wednesday, local media said, deepening turmoil that could trigger a snap election and derail Lisbon's exit from an EU/IMF bailout.
Multiple newspaper radio and television reports said agriculture minister Assuncao Cristas and social security minister Pedro Mota Soares will follow their CDS-PP party leader Paulo Portas, who tendered his resignation on Tuesday.
Party officials were not available to comment as the party's executive commission was in a meeting.
Prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho told the nation late on Tuesday that he did not accept Portas' resignation and would continue to head the government to ensure political stability and work to overcome the stalemate.
Many commentators called the situation "absurd".
With no solution imminent, Portugal's bond and stock prices slumped further. The returns investors demand to hold 10-year bonds surged to above 8.1% for the first time since November and the PSI 20 stock index slumped 6%, led by sharp losses of over 10% in banks' shares.
Coelho's decision to reject his foreign minister's resignation puts the responsibility for the government's survival squarely on the shoulders of Portas. He now has to decide whether to stay in his post or pull his rightist CDS-PP party out of the coalition.
Without the CDS-PP, the centre-right government would lose its majority.
"One thing is certain, the prime minister is going to do everything to stay on, giving all possible concessions to Portas," said political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto.
"Failing that, however, we can hardly avoid an early election."
Portugal is subject to strict budget conditions imposed by a European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. It had been hoping to return to normal debt markets, but rows over continued austerity have now thrown this into question.
"We see early elections as the most likely outcome at this stage, even if we cannot fully rule out support from some CDS MPs and the continuation of the government," Barclays' economist Antonio Garcia Pascual said in a note.
"We consider that the decision of the CDS leader to step down from the government can be explained to a large extent by the fall in popular support for the government coalition."
A day before Portas tendered his resignation, Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar, the architect of spending cuts and tax hikes required by lenders as a condition of their support, stepped down citing an erosion in support for the bailout.
Costa Pinto also said counting on occasional support from CDS-PP in parliament would allow the government to muddle through, but not for long.
Although president Anibal Cavaco Silva is expected to promote a grand coalition government, analysts do not expect the largest opposition party, the moderate centre-left Socialists who lead in opinion polls, to play ball.
Still, while opinion polls indicate Socialists will win a snap election, they would fall short of a majority, which would also require CDS support.
The only two remaining parties in parliament, the Communists and the Left Bloc, have never entered any coalition and are unlikely to do so, analysts said.
"So, it's all in Portas' hands," Costa Pinto said.
Barclays' said a Socialist victory should not represent a radical change in the course of the bailout programme. It also said that even if there are delays in upcoming bailout reviews and disbursements, Portugal has enough funds to meet bond repayments this year.
Use W Cape as African gateway, China told
China should use the Western Cape as an investment gateway into Africa, the provincial agriculture and rural development department said on Wednesday.
Western Cape MEC Gerrit van Rensburg made this invitation to Chinese commerce officials in Beijing on Tuesday, while on a visit to stimulate trade and investment.
Van Rensburg said wine exports from South Africa to China increased by 34% between 2009 and 2012.
He invited Cao Jiachan, the deputy director general for West Asia and Africa commerce, to attend a wine tasting to be hosted by the department in Beijing later this month.
The provincial government would also support a South African wine delegation at the annual Yantai International Wine Exposition in China from July 5.
Van Rensburg said government support of promotional activities and maintaining relationships with government departments was crucial for sustained export growth to China.
North Korea restores hotline with South
North Korea on Wednesday restored its official hotline with South Korea and announced it would let the South's businessmen visit a shuttered joint industrial zone, Seoul officials said.
The move came hours after dozens of South Korean firms threatened to withdraw from the zone at Kaesong in the North, complaining they had fallen victim to political bickering between the two rivals.
"The hotline was restored this afternoon after North Korea accepted our request to normalise it," a South Korean unification ministry official said on condition of anonymity.
After months of tensions and threats of nuclear war, the North restored the hotline in the border truce village of Panmunjom last month for talks on setting up a rare high-level meeting to discuss the fate of the zone.
But it was switched off again after plans for the talks collapsed due to disputes over protocol.
In an unexpected reversal on Wednesday, the North sent a message to the South through Panmunjom saying South Korean businessmen and managers would be allowed to visit the industrial complex.
It said the businessmen could take emergency steps to avert damage to facilities and materials in the complex during the rainy season, according to a unification ministry statement.
South Korea will review the North's proposal and convey its response later, the ministry said.
Established in 2004 as a rare symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, the industrial estate was the most high-profile casualty of months of elevated tensions that followed the North's nuclear test in February.
Operations at the complex just north of the border ground to a halt soon after the North banned entry by southerners on 3 April, amid soaring military tensions with Seoul.
About a week later Pyongyang pulled all its own workers out, prompting Seoul to withdraw its managers and officials soon afterwards.
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