NEWS,29.02.2012.

North Korea agreed to stop nuclear testing

North Korea agreed today to stop nuclear tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile launches, and to allow checks by nuclear inspectors, in an apparent policy shift that paves the way for resuming long-stalled disarmament talks. The surprise breakthrough, announced simultaneously by the United States State Department and North Korea's official news agency, makes possible the resumption of six-nation nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang. It followed talks between US and North Korean diplomats in Beijing last week. While analysts cautioned that Pyongyang has backtracked repeatedly on past deals, the moves by North Korea mark a sharp change in course, at least outwardly, by North Korea's reclusive leadership following the death in December of veteran leader Kim Jong-il.The State Department said that in return, the US was ready to go ahead with a proposed 240,000 metric-tonne food aid package requested by North Korea and that more aid could be agreed to based on continued need. Along with halting weapons activities, North Korea said it would allow nuclear inspectors from the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency to visit its Yongbyon nuclear complex to verify the moratorium on uranium enrichment has been enforced."The DPRK, upon request by the US and with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere for the DPRK-US high-level talks, agreed to a moratorium on nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, and uranium enrichment activity at Yongbyon and allow the IAEA to monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment while productive dialogues continue," North Korea's official KCNA news agency said. North Korea is known formally as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)."Today's announcement represents a modest first step in the right direction," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a Congressional panel, noting that Washington continued to have profound concerns over a range of North Korean activities. The IAEA, which withdrew its inspectors from North Korea in 2009, said it was ready to return, calling the moratorium deal "an important step forward.” South Korea and Japan both welcomed the announcement, with the Foreign Ministry in Seoul saying it could form the basis for a broader agreement on North Korea's nuclear program.” It is our assessment that the basis has been set for moving forward on our efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in a comprehensive and fundamental manner," Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Buyung-jae said in a statement. .As part of the deal, Washington reaffirmed that it did not have hostile intentions toward North Korea and was prepared to take steps to improve bilateral ties and increase people-to-people exchanges. The US decision to resume food aid was a gesture toward Pyongyang, which has sought international help to cope with chronic food shortages. The United States halted food aid to North Korea in 2009 amid a dispute over transparency and monitoring, compounding problems that have followed a crippling famine in the 1990s that killed an estimated one million people The surprise announcement was a step forward for Washington's campaign to rein in renegade nuclear programs around the world and comes as the Obama administration steps up pressure on Iran over its nuclear ambitions, which western governments fear are aimed at producing nuclear weapons. Analysts called the deal an important preliminary step and said the return of IAEA inspectors would give the international community an important window into North Korea's nuclear work.” This puts an element of control back on the North Koreans' nuclear development program as well as their existing capabilities that we have not had for almost four years," said Jack Pritchard, a former U.S. negotiator with North Korea who heads the Korea Economic Institute.

But Pritchard said he believed it was unlikely that Pyongyang's young and untested new leader Kim Jong-un was ready to comply with demands that he scrap the entire nuclear program.” How does a 28-year-old give up the only legitimate piece of leverage that he has in dealing with the superpowers to preserve the survivability of his regime? He's not going to do that," Pritchard said. The announcement followed talks between the US and with North Korea last week in Beijing, the first such meeting since Kim Jong-un succeeded his father as leader of the communist state two months ago. Bruce Klingner, a Korea analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said the move did not necessarily represent any fundamental changes in Pyongyang, noting that the deal tracked a draft agreement that US diplomats were nearing at the time of Kim Jong-il's death.” This is the first step in a very long road," he said, saying it may simply provide the framework for additional meetings between the United States and North Korea to haggle over an agenda for any broader nuclear talks. North Korea agreed to curtail its nuclear activities under a an aid-for-denuclearization agreement reached in September 2005 by six-party talks bringing together North and South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.

NEWS,28.02.2012.

Pirate risk for Costa Cruises liner

A crippled cruise ship owned by the company whose giant liner was wrecked off Italy last month is being towed by a French tuna boat to the main island in the Seychelles, its owners say.An engine room fire on the Costa Allegra knocked out the ship's main power supply in the Indian Ocean on Monday, leaving it adrift with more than a thousand people on board in waters vulnerable to pirates.It is being protected by nine members of an anti-piracy unit of the Italian navy, a precaution regularly taken on ships in the Indian Ocean which is prone to attacks by Somali pirates."The ship is not in a high-risk area, but we can't be 100% sure," said Costa Cruises' Giorgio Moretti.While yachts have been seized in the past near Seychelles, pirates have yet to successfully hijack a cruise liner in the Indian Ocean.The ship's Italian owner, Costa Cruises, a unit of US cruise line giant Carnival Corp, said a plan to tow it to the nearer island of Desroches had been aborted because it would have been harder to moor and disembark the passengers there.The Trevignon, a deep sea trawler which sails the oceans for tuna from the Atlantic port of Concarneau, is pulling the Costa Allegra, a vessel many times its size, on a 400-metre cable at a speed of only about six knots, the Trevignon's skipper Alain Dervout told his local French newspaper, Ouest-France.He was joined today by two tugs and a coastguard ship, all from Seychelles, the archipelago's government said. A military aircraft was also flying in support of the operation.The cruise ship was due to arrive at the Seychelles capital of Victoria on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning local time, depending on weather conditions, government spokeswoman Srdjana Janosevic said. Clocks in the Seychelles are four hours ahead of GMT."Helicopters will ensure continuous supply of food, comfort items, flashlights in order to mitigate guests' discomfort given the difficult conditions on board," Costa Cruises spokesman Davide Barbano said in a statement.A team from the Italian coastguard is heading to the Seychelles to investigate the accident, but a spokesman for the agency it would be wrong to make analogies to the Costa Concordia disaster on January 13, in which at least 25 people died and over which a criminal investigation has been launched."They are two different situations, totally different conditions, so they are not related accidents," Cosimo Nicastro.Prosecutors in the Italian city of Genoa have opened an investigation into the fire on the Costa Allegra, judicial sources said.Nicastro said there was no question of the passengers being transferred to other vessels."The safest place for the people is on the ship. There is no reason to put them on another ship or a helicopter. They will remain on the Costa Allegra and we will keep monitoring the situation," he said.An evacuation off Desroches Island would have presented the ship owner and local authorities with a tricky and expensive logistical operation.The 636 passengers and 413 crew would have had to use the ship's lifeboats to land on the exclusive coral-fringed island, where Britain's Prince William and his then girlfriend, now wife, Kate Middleton, stayed a few years ago."Logistics and hotels on the island are not sufficient. It would require ... an immediate transfer from Desroches to Mahe," Barbano, the Costa Cruises spokesman, said.

NEWS,27.02.2012.

Costa Cruises liner adrift after fire on board

 

A liner owned by the same company as the Costa Concordia, on which at least 25 people died when it ran aground off Italy last month, is adrift in the Indian Ocean after a fire in the engine room left it without power. The company, Costa Cruises, said the fire on the 29,000-tonne Costa Allegra had been put out and none of the passengers or crew were hurt. The giant Costa Concordia capsized on January 13 after hitting rocks off the island of Giglio. Divers and rescue workers are still searching for the bodies of seven people who remain missing. The much smaller Costa Allegra, with 636 passengers and 413 crew on board, was sailing some 320 kilometres southwest of the Seychelles when the fire broke out and it sent a distress signal, the company said. The Italian coastguard said in a statement it had alerted authorities on the Seychelles, which was sending rescue vessels. An aircraft had spotted the ship's position. Lieutenant Massimo Maccheroni of the coastguard said two fishing boats had been diverted towards the liner and the first was expected to arrive around 2300 GMTmidday Seychelles tugs were also on the way and would arrive tomorrow afternoon.Maccheroni said the ship had no engine power but was able to steer.Seas in the area were moderate with winds gusting at 25 knots, the coastguard said in their statement. Shares of Carnival Cruises fell slightly in London trading after news of Costa Allegra's difficulties and were down 2%.A spokesman for Costa said the passengers included 130 each from Italy and France, 100 from Austria and 90 from Switzerland.” It’s a fairly positive picture that we are nevertheless continuing to monitor, until the hopefully positive and swift outcome," Italian coastguard spokesman Cosimo Nicastro said. A Seychelles coastguard official confirmed that support vessels were "on their way" but said they would give no further information until authorised by Costa Cruises. The company said the passengers were "all in good health and, having been promptly informed of the situation, were assembled at the muster points as a precaution."Costa Cruises was accused by some passengers of long delays and a lack of organisation in the evacuation of the Costa Concordia.That vessel's Italian captain is under house arrest near Naples accused of multiple manslaughter and abandoning the ship before the 4,200 passengers and crew were evacuated.The Costa Allegra left Diego Suarez in Madagascar on Saturday and had been due to dock in the Seychelles capital of Victoria on Tuesday.

NEWS,26.2.2012

Kim Jong Un threatens retaliation on eve of drills

 
South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened to launch a powerful retaliatory strike against South Korea if provoked, state media said Sunday, a day before the start of annual South Korean-U.S. military drills that Pyongyang calls an invasion rehearsal.South Korean and U.S. officials have said the 12-day, largely computer-simulated war games are defensive in nature. The reported threat came a day after a senior U.S. envoy said ties between the rival Koreas must improve before the United States and North Korea can achieve real progress in their relationship. Kim, supreme commander of the North's 1.2 million-member military, made the comment during a visit to front-line military units, including one that shelled a South Korean island in 2010, according to the official Korean Central News Agency."He ordered them to make a powerful retaliatory strike at the enemy, should the enemy intrude even 0.001 millimeter into the waters of the country where its sovereignty is exercised," KCNA said. It did not say when Kim visited the units. North Korea has regularly issued such rhetoric against joint South Korean-U.S. military exercises.KCNA said fears of a war on the Korean peninsula have heightened due to the drills, which it called a "new war of aggression." North Korea's powerful National Defence Commission threatened Saturday to wage a "sacred war" over the exercises.The units visited by Kim included the army battalion responsible for the 2010 shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island. KCNA said the unit is "well known to the world as it turned Yeonpyeong Island ... into flames," adding that Kim "highly appreciated the feats" by battalion members.The artillery bombardment, which killed four South Koreans, raised fears of a bigger conflict on the Korean peninsula. North Korea says the attack was triggered by South Korea's firing of artillery into its territorial waters, while South Korea says the firing was part of routine drills.On Saturday, U.S. envoy Glyn Davies told reporters in Seoul that he made it clear to North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan in a meeting in Beijing last week that North Korea should improve its relations with South Korea before Pyongyang and Washington can improve their relationship.The meeting, aimed at restarting stalled international nuclear disarmament talks, was the first since Kim's father and longtime leader Kim Jong Il died in December. Kim Jong Un has quickly taken over power by assuming a slew of prominent titles previously held by his father.North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim met with China's chief nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, and Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun separately on Saturday to discuss the stalled six-nation nuclear talks, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Further details were not disclosed.More than three years have passed since the last session of the six-nation talks, which involve the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia.

 

NEWS,25.02.2012.

Gas Prospects for Russia

 Although petroleum is the primary fuel all over the world, natural gas is becoming increasingly competitive  because it is abundant, cheaper, cleaner and more fuel-efficient. In possession of the world's largest gas reserves, Russia is the largest producer and exporter of natural gas. Russian gas constitutes more than a quarter of natural gas consumed by the European Union, which provides Russia a certain degree of leverage to exercise its influence over Europe. Russia's bilateral ties with transit nations like Ukraine and Baltic states also play a determining factor in the continuity of gas supplies to Europe. The Russia-Ukraine gas dispute in early 2009 very well exposed the vulnerability of Europe to resultant disruptions. The Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline, the first leg of which was commissioned recently, is expected to partly allay the European fears of cut-off since it will deliver gas directly from Vyborg, Russia, to Greifswald, Germany, running underneath the Baltic Sea, thus bypassing transit nations and hence evading potential diplomatic attrition. Moreover, the savings from transit fees will add to economies of scale for both sides. While the EU has a reason for contentment owing to assured gas supplies from Nord Stream, for Russia it will not only bring additional revenue, but also take away a bargaining chip from its neighbours who time and again threaten to disrupt supplies. Even though the West is backing the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline, connecting Turkey to Austria, in an effort to reduce European dependence on Russian gas, serious doubts remain on its political feasibility and economic viability, owing to its diverse gas sources such as Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which are fragile regions. Moreover, the pipeline is planned to pass through restive areas of the South Caucasus and Eastern Turkey. Therefore, security is a major hurdle circumscribing the prospects of this project. To further undermine Nabucco's prospects, Russia, along with Italy, has launched a rival South Stream pipeline project. It will transport Russian natural gas via the Black Sea to Bulgaria and further to Greece, Italy and Austria. The project, executed jointly by Russian giant Gazprom and Italy's Eni, is expected to be running by 2015, much before the proposed commissioning of Nabucco in 2017. Even if completed in time, Nabucco will be able to feed only a limited number of European countries. Hence, both Nord Stream and South Stream combined are bound to make Russia the undisputed energy feeder to Europe, making it capable of enjoying an unprecedented influence over the continent at a time when all of its major economies are reeling under serious debt crises.

To quote Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during the launch of Nord Stream, "It marks a significant step in relations between Russia, the E.U., Germany and a number of other countries that participated in the project. In the long run, it will bolster security in Europe, including in the energy sector, particularly amid the current economic difficulties.” Expanding the scope of its energy diplomacy of late, Russia has tried to diversify its gas exports by finding new customers. In this attempt, a pipeline has already been laid to China. Another project, Altai gas pipeline, is on the cards. In addition, Russia has proposed to lay a pipeline to the Koreas , in an effort to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula and give a boost to the impoverished North Korean economy. Plans are also underway to take supplies to maritime neighbor Japan as well as to Southeast Asia. The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is already pumping Russian crude to Japan, China and Korea. Since Asian economies' appetite for energy is huge, this diversification of supplies to Asia-Pacific will ensure guaranteed demand for Russian gas. It will also enable Moscow to have a greater say in the affairs of the region.This is an opportune moment for Russia. By wisely and judiciously making use of its geography, it can establish itself as a strong pole in the emerging global order.

NEWS,24.02.2012.

Thousands gather for Putin's battle cry

Tens of thousands of people have gathered in Moscow in support of presidential hopeful Vladimir Putin.

Tens of thousands of people have gathered in Moscow in support of presidential hopeful Vladimir Putin, with numbers rivalling those of recent mass protests against his 12-year dominance of Russian politics. Bussed in from surrounding towns and cities, the rally was all about proving that Vladimir Putin is still Russia's most popular politician. In a fiery speech he issued a battle cry, loaded with patriotic rhetoric. He said: 'We are all ready to work together for the sake of our great motherland. We are not only ready to work, we are ready to defend it.’ To defend it at all times and forever. We won't allow anyone to meddle in our affairs or impose their will upon us, because we have a will of our own.'On the national holiday known as Defenders Of The Fatherland Day, there was a clear effort to entertain the crowds. Older fur-clad Russians danced to Soviet rock and roll, while buckwheat was served from an old field kitchen.Unlike the anti-Putin demos there wasn't an iPad in sight as some donned traditional Russian costume to take part in a tug of war competition.Some attended the rally with gusto.One man told reporters: 'Putin will be president for this term and the next. Only this will make Russia stable. When we had Tsars for 40 years, Russia was able to rise from it's knees and become a great country.'Others were a little confused over the exact nature of the event. One woman said her employer invited to a music concert - not a pro-Putin rally.Most placards were in Russian and had things like 'For the Motherland, for Stalin, for Putin' written on them. One read, in English, 'In Putin We Trust' - although the man holding it did not know what his banner said as he didn't speak English.Rumours of people being ordered to attend such meetings have been rife.Head teacher Yelena Travina, who lost her job when she refused the order to send her employees to a pro-Putin rally, said: 'I felt horrible, hurt and angered at what happened.'I have only received praise in my job so far and then I got into this purely political conflict. I was belittled in front of other employees and thrown out of work. It was a strong blow.'The effort behind this rally suggests genuine concern over the recent anti-Putin protest movement.In just over a week's time he will almost certainly regain his old job. The doubt lies in just how smooth and successful a tenure it will be.

NEWS,23.02.2012.

America - China Strategy

Forty years ago, on a clear, cold afternoon in Beijing, I followed President Nixon onto the tarmac at Beijing's Capital Airport. I have a belated confession to make. When I tried to sleep on Air Force One on the way to Beijing, I was jolted awake by a nightmare. I dreamed that Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek would be standing there with his old political sparring partner and secret pen pal, Zhou Enlai. In my dream, Chiang stepped forward to greet his former friend and political backer Richard Nixon with a loudly sarcastic "long time, no see!" As we pulled up to the shabby old structure that was then the only terminal at Beijing's airport, I peered anxiously out the window. Others were elated to see Premier Zhou emerge to greet us. I was merely relieved that he was there pretty much by himself. It’s almost impossible today to recall the weirdness of that moment, when an American president who had made a political career of reviling Chinese communism strode without apology into the capital of the People's Republic of China--a state and government the United States did not recognize--to meet with leaders that Chiang Kai-shek--whom we officially viewed as the legal president of all China--called "bandits at the head of a bogus regime." I had entered the foreign service of the United States and learned Chinese because I thought we would eventually have to find a way to recruit China geopolitically. I was thrilled to be the principal American interpreter as our president led an effort to do exactly that. My job was to help him and his secretary of state discuss with China's communists what to do about other, even more problematic communists.Last Tuesday, on the precise anniversary of that February 21, 1972, personal introduction to Beijing, I was back there--not to try to rearrange the world again but to make Chinese financiers aware of specific investment opportunities in the United States. In 1972, it was necessary for the leader of the capitalist world to save China from Soviet communism. In 2012, the world looks to China to save capitalism, and the world's capitalists flock to China in search of funds. How very much was changed by the forces Nixon and Mao put in motion that afternoon forty years ago.There is no more Soviet Union; the bipolar world it helped define is gone, as is the unipolar American moment its collapse created. The famous Shanghai Communiqué of 1972 opened with a long recitation of the irreconcilable differences between the United States and China on almost every major international question of the time. Encounters between Chinese and American leaders now produce far less dramatic laundry lists of relatively minor and entirely manageable frictions as well as grumbles, growls and whines about highly technical issues that lower-level officials in both countries need to work on.China has risen from poverty, impotence and isolation to retake its premodern place atop the world economic order. The People's Republic is now a major actor in global governance. It is fully integrated into every aspect of the international system it once sought to overthrow and, in some ways, more devoted to that system than we are. Forty years ago, China's backwardness and vulnerability were the wonder of the world. Now, the world envies and ponders the strategic implications of China's rapidly growing wealth and power.Reality, unlike ghosts in China, seldom travels in straight lines. But if current trends advance along current lines, as early as 2022 China will have an economy that is one-third to two-fifths larger than that of the United States. If China continues to spend roughly 2 percent of its GDP (or 11 percent of its central-government budget) on its military as it does now, ten years hence it will have a defense budget on a par with ours today. Even with the exchange-rate adjustments that will surely take place by 2022, $600 billion or so is likely to buy a lot more in China than it can here. And all that money will be concentrated on the defense of China and its periphery, whereas our military, under current assumptions, will remain configured to project our power simultaneously to every region of the globe, not just the Asia-Pacific region.What sort of relationship do we want with the emerging giant that is China? The choice is not entirely ours, of course. China will have a lot to say about it. To the extent we pay attention to the views of allies like Japan, so will they. But we do have choices, and their consequences are sufficiently portentous to suggest that they should be made after due reflection, rather than as the result of strategic inertia.Right now, the military-strategic choice we've made is clear. We are determined to try to sustain the global supremacy handed to us by Russia's involuntary default on its Cold War contest with us. In the Asia-Pacific region, this means "full-spectrum dominance" up to China's twelve-mile limit. In effect, having assumed the mission of defending the global commons against all comers, we have decided to treat the globe beyond the borders of Russia and China as an American sphere of influence in which we hold sway and all others defer to our views of what is and is not permissible. This is a pretty ambitious posture on our part. China's defense buildup is explicitly designed to counter it. China has made it clear that it will not tolerate the threat to its security represented by a foreign military presence at its gates when these foreign forces are engaged in activities designed to probe Chinese defenses and choreograph a way to penetrate them. There's no reason to assume that China is any less serious about this than we would be if faced with similarly provocative naval and air operations along our frontiers. So, quite aside from our on-again, off-again mutual posturing over the issue of Taiwan's relationship to the rest of China, we and the Chinese are currently headed for some sort of escalating military confrontation. At the same time, most Americans recognize that our own prosperity is closely linked to continued economic development in China. In recent years, China has been our fastest growing export market. It is also our largest source of manufactured imports, including many of the high-tech items we take pride in having designed but do not make. And we know we have to work with China to address the common problems of mankind.So our future prosperity has come to depend on economic interdependence with a nation we are also setting ourselves up to do battle with. And, at the same time, we hope to cooperate with that nation to assure good global governance. Pardon me if I perceive a contradiction or two in this China policy. It looks to me more like the vector of competing political impulses than the outcome of rational decisionmaking.Of course, no Washington audience can be the least surprised that capitol confusion, intellectual inertia and the prostitution of policy to special interests, rather than strategic reasoning, determine policy. Why should China be an exception to other issues? But even those of us long calloused by life within the Beltway ought to be able to see that we've got a problem. Our approach to managing our interactions with China does not compute.Actually, we have a much bigger problem than that presented by the challenge of dealing with a rising China. We cannot hope to sustain our global hegemony even in the short term without levels of expenditure we are unprepared to tax ourselves to support. Worse, the logic of the sort of universal sphere of influence we aspire to administer requires us to treat the growth of others' capabilities relative to our own as direct threats to our hegemony. This means we must match any and all improvements in foreign military power with additions to our own. It is why our military-related expenditures have grown to exceed those of the rest of the world combined. There is simply no way that such a militaristic approach to national security is affordable in the long term, no matter how much it may delight defense contractors.In this context, I fear that the so-called "pivot" to Asia will turn out be an unresourced bluff. It's impressive enough to encourage China to spend more on its military, but what it means, in practice, is that we will cut military commitments to Asia less than we cut commitments elsewhere. That is, we will do this if the Middle East comes to need less attention than we have been giving it. At best, the "pivot" promises more or less more of the same in the Indo-Pacific region. This would be a tough maneuver to bring off even if we had our act together both at home and in the Middle East. But we do not have our act together at home. Our position in West Asia and North Africa is not improving. And some Americans are currently actively advocating war with Iran, intervention in Syria, going after Pakistan, and other misguided military adventures in West and South Asia.So, what's the affordable alternative approach to sustaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region as China rises? My guess is that it's to be found in adjustments in our psychology. We need to get over World War II and the Cold War and focus on the realities of the present rather than the past.Japan initially defeated all other powers in the Asia-Pacific, including the United States. We then cleaned Japan's clock and filled the resulting strategic vacuum. We found our regional preeminence so gratifying that we didn't notice as the vacuum we had filled proceeded to disappear. Japan restored itself. Southeast Asians came together in the Second Indochina War. ASEAN incorporated Indochina and Myanmar. India rose from its post-colonial sick bed and strode forward. Indonesia did the same.But we have continued to behave as though there is an Asian-Pacific power vacuum only we can fill. And, as China's rise has begun to shift the strategic equilibrium in the region, we have stepped forward to restore it. We seem to think that, if we Americans don't provide it, there can be no balance or peace in Asia. But, quite aside from the fact that there was a balance and peace in the region long before the United States became a Pacific power, this overlooks the formidable capabilities of re-risen and rising powers like Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. It is a self-realizing strategic delusion that powers a self-licking ice-cream cone.If Americans step forward to balance China for everyone else in the region, the nations of the Indo-Pacific will hang back and let us take the lead. And if we put ourselves between them and China, they will not just rely on us to back their existing claims against China, they will up the ante. It cannot make sense to empower the Philippines, Vietnam and others to pick our fights with China for us.The bottom line is that the return of Japan, South Korea and China to wealth and power and the impressive development of other countries in the region should challenge us to rethink the entire structure of our defense posture in Asia. Unable to live by our wallets, we must learn to live by our wits. In my view, President Nixon's "Guam Doctrine" pointed the way. We need to find ways to ask Asians to do more in their own interest and their own defense. Our role should be to back them as our interests demand, not to pretend that we care more about their national-security interests or understand these better than they do, still less to push them aside to take on defense tasks on their behalf.We need to think very differently than we have done over the nearly seven decades since the end of World War II. To be sure, a less forward-leaning American approach to securing our interests in Asia would require painful adjustments in Japan's and South Korea's dependencies on us as well as in our relations with the member states of ASEAN and India and Pakistan. It would almost certainly require an even stronger alliance with Australia. Paradoxically, it would be more than a little unnerving for China, which has come to like most aspects, even if not everything, about the status quo.It is not in our interest to withdraw from Asia. But, more than six decades after we deployed to stabilize Cold War Asia, we should not be afraid to adapt our strategy and deployments to its new post-Cold War realities. Both the strategic circumstances of our times and the more limited resources available to us demand serious reformulation of current policies. These policies cannot effectively meet the evolving challenges of the world the Nixon visit to China--forty years ago this week--helped to create.

NEWS,22.02.2012

Venezuela's Chavez needs another operation

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez speaks with workers at a tractor factory in Barinas 

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez will undergo another operation in the coming days after doctors in Cuba found a lesion in his pelvis where surgeons removed a large cancerous tumor last year, he said.The 57-year-old socialist leader confirmed he travelled to Havana for the tests on Saturday. Rumors of the unannounced trip had prompted a flood of speculation among the opposition and supporters alike that he was at death's door. Chavez’s health is the wildcard ahead of an October 7 presidential election, when he will seek a new six-year term. He has never given many details about his condition so the news he needs more surgery was bound to feed doubts about his recovery.” There is no metastasis, just this small lesion in the same place where they removed the tumor," the president said during a televised tour of a factory in his home state of Barinas on Tuesday.” Because of the growing rumors, I'm obliged to give this information now ... it's a small lesion, about two centimetres across, very clearly visible. This will need to be taken out, it needs more surgery, supposedly less complicated than before.” He said the next operation would take place in the coming days, but that it had not yet been decided where.” No one should be alarmed ... I'm in good physical condition to face this new battle," he said. "It has to be verified whether there is any link with the tumor that was there before.” In a phone call to state TV later, the president added: "No one can say if it (the lesion) is malignant, but there is a high probability because it is in the same place.” He had insisted he was completely recovered, although medical experts had said it was too soon to make such a call. Donning a bright red hard hat to stroll around the proposed site of the giant Veneminsk factory, the president joked with workers and looked to be in reasonable health.A US cancer doctor told  that with such little detail it was impossible to know his real condition, but that the latest turn of events did not look good.” They have always played their cards close to their chest, so you never really know," said the doctor, who has followed the case from afar but asked not to be named.” But a two centimeter lesion in the same space where he had cancer before means there is a high probability of malignancy. This is serious, very significant.” Venezuela’s information minister had earlier denounced a report that Chavez had been rushed back to Havana for emergency treatment as part of a "dirty war by scum," launched by the opposition ahead of the election.A prominent opposition-leaning Venezuelan journalist, Nelson Bocaranda, wrote on Monday that Chavez, who had two operations in Havana last June, had returned unexpectedly to Cuba over the weekend and that some of his relatives had flown there too. Chavez allies were scathing about Bocaranda after the president appeared on television. Deputy Foreign Minister Temir Porras joked on Twitter: "They'll have to take me for an emergency operation in Cuba. I'm dying of laughter!” Local political analyst Luis Vicente Leon said any new "sympathy" bounce in support linked to the president's illness would be lower and short-lasting the second time round."Clearly the tensions within Chavismo will grow because of the uncertainty generated by this announcement," he said.The public's reactions to Chavez's news were mixed."Maybe it's time for a change in the country. Everything points to that," said Elizabeth Gonzalez, a 42-year-old housewife in Caracas. Car park attendant William Perez said the president had looked alright, if a bit swollen-faced.” He didn't appear bad or tired. He's a fighter, and like his motto he'll live and he'll conquer!" he said. Barclays Capital noted that polls show more than three-quarters of Venezuelans believed Chavez had fully recovered."However, if that perception changes it could significantly affect Chavez's re-election chances, not only physically limiting his ability to campaign but also creating doubts about the viability of a new term in office," it said. The opposition is newly united behind one candidate - youthful state governor Henrique Capriles - and see the vote as their best chance to end Chavez's 13 years in power. Recent opinion polls have given Chavez an edge over Capriles, thanks partly to a huge program of new state spending on social projects. But about a third of Venezuelans remain undecided, and competition for their votes will be intense.One medical source close to the team treating Chavez in Venezuela said he had been suffering a tumor lysis, or cell breakdown, which carried symptoms including a high fever.Before Chavez's reappearance on Tuesday, Venezuelan analyst Diego Moya-Ocampos had suggested his absence could well be a strategy by Chavez's campaign team to put the focus back on him and not Capriles, who since winning the opposition primary had been at the center of media and political attention.He said the fact that the latest rumors had spread so fast just underlined the anxiety among loyalists each time Chavez vanished from view for more than a couple of days. Chavez apologised to his supporters on Tuesday, saying he knew the speculation about his health was upsetting for them.” Always these rumors ... There are people who want me dead, who hate me so much," he said. "I am very sorry, because I know that while some people are happy, the majority are suffering.” Venezuela’s widely traded debt was largely flat to slightly higher. Its 2027 Global bond was up 0.56 points in price to bid 80.563, yielding 12.041%, unchanged after Chavez spoke.

NEWS,21.02.2012.

Medvedev hosts Russia’s protest leaders

President Dmitry Medvedev hosted leaders of Russia’s protest movement Monday, in a rare move after an outburst of rallies against Vladimir Putin’s likely return to the Kremlin.Medvedev discussed ideas for reforming Russia’s “far from ideal” political system at a meeting that would have been almost unthinkable before mass opposition protests broke out in the aftermath of December parliamentary polls. Leftist radical Sergei Udaltsov, ex-Cabinet Minister Boris Nemtsov and liberal politician Vladimir Ryzhkov – leaders of the movement that organized mass rallies against the authorities – were all present at the meeting.” Our political system is far from ideal and most of those present here subject it to criticism and sometimes very harsh criticism,” Medvedev said at the meeting at his Gorky residence outside Moscow. “There are people here with different political opinions and that is good because we have to understand in what direction our political system will develop,” he said in comments broadcast on state television.Udalstov, Nemtsov and Ryzhkov – whose faces were virtually invisible in state media in the last few years – were shown on state television attending the meeting along with other leaders of unregistered political parties. However state television had not by Monday evening broadcast any of their comments to the Russian president.Nemtsov said ahead of the meeting that he intended to press Medvedev for the release of 37 “political prisoners” and demand constitutional changes barring all presidents from serving three terms. Russian news agencies said that Medvedev discussed his proposals – already submitted to parliament – to bring back elections for regional governors and simplify the procedures for registering parties. However the demands for the protest movement go far beyond this and its leaders have called for the annulment of fraud-tainted Dec. 4 parliamentary election results and far-reaching political reforms.Putin, president from 2000-08, is seeking to reclaim the Kremlin in a March 4 vote after his four-year stint as prime minister. Medvedev would then become prime minister in a job swap vehemently criticized by the opposition. Opinion polls are predicting that Putin will win the election but the opposition has vowed to hold multiple protests afterward to protest his domination of Russian politics. According to a state pollster, Putin will be elected president in the first round of March’s election with more than half the vote, avoiding a run-off that would dent his authority on the eve of his planned return to the Kremlin’s top job.Putin is likely to win 58.6 percent of the vote, far ahead of his closest rival, said Russia’s Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), which has a history of accurately predicting the results of Russian elections.“Putin will gain victory,” the pollster’s general director, Valery Fedorov, told reporters in Moscow. The forecasts were based on a poll of 1,600 people carried out across Russia this month. Second place will go to veteran Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, who is likely to win 14.8 percent, the pollster said. A mood change against Putin among voters in major cities has stoked speculation that the former KGB spy might face the humiliation of winning less than half of the vote, undermining his claims of majority support and triggering a second round.Putin even conceded this month that he may face a second round, though he warned such a step would stoke infighting and undermine Russia’s political stability. But the poll indicates that though Putin is facing the biggest protests of his 12-year rule, his aides believe the former KGB spy can still bring in enough votes to secure another six years as Kremlin chief.Putin’s former chief of staff, Alexander Voloshin, said the latest forecasts for the elections indicated Putin could win 59-61 percent of the vote. The news, he said on Twitter, would make many “sleep more soundly.”VTsIOM forecast that nationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky would win 9.4 percent followed by billionaire financial whizz kid Mikhail Prokhorov with 8.7 percent and former upper house Speaker Sergei Mironov with 7.7 percent. Opponents such as Communist leader Zyuganov and blogger Alexei Navalny say that the election will not be legitimate as officials are bound to falsify the results in Putin’s favor.Putin was clearly taken aback by the scale of the protests against the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections, initially dismissing opponents as the pawns of the West and even branding them chattering monkeys. But as the seriousness of the challenge became evident, Russia’s most popular politician changed track, reshuffling his team and approving some planned changes to open up the tightly controlled political system he still dominates. During the parliamentary election, VTsIOM forecast Putin’s United Russia party would win 48.5 percent of the vote.

NEWS,20.2.2012

Iranian ships reach Syria, Assad allies show support

Russia, China and Iran showed support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad today, days before an international meeting likely to pile more pressure on him to step down in the face of an increasingly bloody uprising. Assad met a senior Russian politician in Damascus, who reiterated Moscow's support for his self-styled reform programme and spoke out against any foreign intervention in the conflict, Russian and Syrian news agencies reported. China accused Western countries of stirring up civil war in Syria, and two Iranian warships docked at a Syrian naval base, underscoring rising international tensions over the near year-long crisis. Government forces pressed on with their crackdown on the anti-Assad uprising, with opposition activists reporting five people killed in renewed shelling of an opposition-held district of Homs and troops and militia blockading Hama. Both cities have been in the forefront of the revolt.The crisis is entering an important week, with Western and Arab powers due to meet at a conference in Tunisia on Saturday to pressure Assad to give up power, while Assad forges ahead with plans for a referendum on Monday for a new constitution. The referendum, which would lead to multi-party elections within 90 days, is part of what Assad describes as a reform programme to address demands for more democracy. Syria's official SANA news agency said about 14,600,000 people are eligible to take part in the referendum. The West and Syrian opposition figures have dismissed the plan as joke, saying it is impossible to have a valid election amid the continuing repression. Alexei Pushkov, head of the international affairs committee of Russia's lower house of parliament, met Assad in Damascus today and affirmed Russia's support for the plan. Moscow is Syria's main arms supplier and an ally dating back to the Cold War.Pushkov also stressed the need "to continue working for a political solution to the crisis based on dialogue between all concerned parties, without foreign intervention," SANA said.Assad, who shows no inclination to relinquish power, told Pushkov Syria was being targeted by armed terrorist groups supported by foreign elements aiming to destabilize Syria.China, which sent an envoy to Damascus this weekend, also backs Assad's idea of a political solution and has appealed to the government and opposition alike to halt the violence. China’s Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's Daily, took the West to task in a commentary today, saying: "If Western countries continue to fully support Syria's opposition, then in the end a large-scale civil war will erupt and there will be no way to thus avoid the possibility of foreign armed intervention.” The West has so far ruled out any Libya-style military action but the Arab League, led by Saudi Arabia, has indicated some of its member states were prepared to arm the opposition. A more immediate concern for the West is the plight of civilians caught up in the offensive against the opposition and a nascent rebel army. Activists in embattled cities such as Homs say food supplies are running out and doctors lack medicine to treat the wounded. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said in Geneva it was negotiating with Syrian authorities and opposition fighters for a ceasefire to bring life-saving aid to civilians. Diplomatic sources said the ICRC was seeking a two-hour ceasefire in hotspots including Homs.Opposition activists said five people had been killed in government shelling of Homs's Baba Amro district today, adding to a reported death toll of several hundred since the operation began on February 3.Activists in the western city of Hama said troops, police and militias had set up dozens of roadblocks, isolating neighbourhoods from each other."Hama is cut off from the outside world. There are no landlines, no mobile phone network and no internet. House to house arrests take place daily and sometimes repeatedly in the same neighbourhoods," an opposition statement said. Rebel fighters have been attacking militiamen, known as shabbiha, while avoiding open confrontations with armoured forces that had amassed around Hama, a city north of Homs on the Damascus-Aleppo highway. The government restricts foreign media access in Syria, making it hard to independently verify the activists' reports.

BREAKING NEWS,19.02.2012.

Iran halts oil sales to Britain, France

 President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking on TV 

Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said today, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state's lifeblood, oil.” Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped ... we will sell our oil to new customers," spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the ministry of petroleum website. The European Union in January decided to stop importing crude from Iran from July 1 over its disputed nuclear programme, which the West says is aimed at building bombs. Iran denies this. Iran’s oil minister said on February 4 the Islamic state would cut its oil exports to "some" European countries. The European Commission said last week the bloc would not be short of oil if Iran stopped crude exports, as they have enough in stock to meet their needs for around 120 days. Industry sources told Reuters on February 16 Iran's top oil buyers in Europe were making substantial cuts in supply months in advance of European Union sanctions, reducing flows to the continent in March by more than a third - or over 300,000 barrels daily. France’s Total has already stopped buying Iran's crude, which is subject to fresh EU embargoes. Market sources said Royal Dutch Shell has scaled back sharply. Among European nations, debt-ridden Greece is most exposed to Iranian oil disruption. Motor Oil Hellas of Greece was thought to have cut out Iranian crude altogether and compatriot Hellenic Petroleum along with Spain's Cepsa and Repsol were curbing imports from Iran.Iran was supplying more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the EU plus Turkey in 2011, industry sources said. By the start of this year imports had sunk to about 650,000 bpd as some customers cut back in anticipation of an EU ban. Saudi Arabia says it is prepared to supply extra oil either by topping up existing term contracts or by making rare spot market sales. Iran has criticised Riyadh for the offer. Iran said the cut will have no impact on its crude sales, warning any sanctions on its oil will raise international crude prices. Brent crude oil prices were up $1 a barrel to $118.35 shortly after Iran's state media announced last week Tehran had cut oil exports to six European states. The report was denied shortly afterwards by Iranian officials."We have our own customers ... The replacements for these companies have been considered by Iran," Nikzad said. EU's new sanctions includes a range of extra restrictions on Iran that went well beyond UN sanctions agreed last month and included a ban on dealing with Iranian banks and insurance companies and steps to prevent investment in Tehran's lucrative oil and gas sector, including refining. The mounting sanctions are aimed at putting financial pressure on the world's fifth largest crude oil exporter, which has little refining capacity and has to import about 40% of its gasoline needs for its domestic consumption.

NEWS,19.2.2012

Greek cabinet backs extra austerity measures

      

A make-shift devise explodes during an anti-austerity demonstration in central Athens

 

Greece's cabinet has approved a final set of austerity measures sought by the EU and IMF as a condition for a 130-billion euro ($171 billion) rescue package, raising the chances of a deal next week to avert a chaotic default on its debt. The approval was largely a formality after Athens last week unveiled details of the extra budget and public sector wage cuts worth 325 million euros to euro zone partners. Lingering doubts over whether Greece can bring its mountain of debt down to more manageable levels in coming years could still hold up the rescue package. Some officials in the 17-nation currency union warn chances of a deal at a euro zone meeting on Monday are little higher than 50-50."The 325 million euros worth of measures were approved unanimously," said one minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, about the cuts, part of a 3.3-billion-euro package of austerity measures that have triggered riots in Athens. A government official said cabinet had also agreed to launch by March 8 a debt swap for private creditors with the aim of completing it by March 11. The swap is intended to accompany the rescue deal and will mean that creditors take a 70% cut in the real value of their holdings. After months of often acrimonious negotiations, Greek hopes are rising that Monday's meeting in Brussels will endorse the rescue which Athens needs to avoid bankruptcy on March 20 when major debt repayments fall due.” The Greek people have done everything they can and we are determined to make good on our commitments," Public Order Minister Christos Papoutsis said before the meeting. In a statement, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos regretted that extra pension cuts could not be avoided, but said the impact was limited because it would only affect the part of the pension above a monthly threshold of 1,300 euros.” We all agree the immediate support of economic activity is a priority of the government's economic policy," he added, while not detailing what growth measures were under consideration. A survey by pollster MRB for Sunday's Realness newspaper showed 72.7 percent of Greeks want the country to stay in the euro, but only about half believe it will manage to do so. On Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Papademos all voiced optimism about a Greek accord during a three-way conference call, Monti's office said. However, Jean-Claude Juncker, who will chair Monday's meeting of the Euro group in Brussels, made clear that urgent work was still needed to get a programme to reduce Greece's crippling debts back on track. At stake is a target of lowering the debt from the equivalent of 160 percent of annual Greek economic output now to a more manageable 120% by 2020."All the discussions I will have ... until Sunday night will try to move the figure nearer to the target," Junker said. At the moment, EU and IMF officials believe that target - which assumes that Greece will run a budget surplus next year, excluding the massive cost of its debts - will be missed. Under the main scenario of an analysis by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Greek debt will fall to only 129 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, one official said. The euro zone is therefore looking at modifying the deal negotiated over many months with private creditors under which they would accept a cut of around 70 percent in the real value of their Greek bond holdings. Senior euro zone finance officials meet on Sunday to discuss the analysis and find ways to bring the debt closer to the 120% target before the finance ministers gather on Monday.” If you do a number of things you can bring the 129 close to 120," one euro zone official familiar with the document said. These might include changes to interest accrued on privately held bonds, but the EU and its national institutions might also play their part, the official said. Interest rates on EU loans to Greece could be cut, and those national central banks in the euro zone which hold Greek bonds might accept similar terms to the private creditors on some of their holdings. The national central banks own an estimated 12 billion euros of Greek debt. The European Central Bank has refused to take part in the complex deal for the private creditors - involving swapping old bonds for new ones with a lower face value, lower interest rates and longer maturities - and would need to approve the national central bank decision. Officials are also considering a cut in the cash "sweetener" which would be offered to the private creditors in return for accepting the cut in the value of their bond holdings. With Greek morale near rock bottom, the national mood darkened further after armed thieves looted a museum on Friday in Olympia, birthplace of the Olympic Games. They stole bronze and pottery artefacts weeks after the National Gallery was burgled. A Greek newspaper suggested the state could no longer look after the nation's immense cultural heritage. "The Greek state has gone bankrupt, let's face it," the daily Kathimerini said."If the state cannot guard the country's great cultural heritage for financial or other reasons it must find other ways to do it," the conservative daily said."It could, for example, turn to large foundations and ask them to assume the cost of security at the country's important museums in the next two to three difficult years."

NEWS,18.02.2012.

Iran deploys warships to the Mediterranean

 

Iran's Navy Commander Admiral Habibollah Sayari

Iranian warships entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Suez Canal on Saturday to show Tehran's "might" to regional countries, the navy commander said, amid simmering tensions with Israel."The strategic navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed through the Suez Canal for the second time since the (1979) Islamic Revolution," Admiral Habibollah Sayari said in remarks quoted by the official IRNA news agency.He did not say how many vessels had crossed the canal, or what missions they were planning to carry out in the Mediterranean, but said the flotilla had previously docked in the Saudi port city of Jeddah.Two Iranian ships, the destroyer Shahid Qandi and supply vessel Kharg, had docked in the Red Sea port on February 4, according to Iranian media.Sayari said the naval deployment to the Mediterranean would show "the might" of the Islamic republic to regional countries, and also convey Tehran's "message of peace and friendship.” The announcement comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, fuelled by the longstanding dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme and rising speculation that Israel might launch pre-emptive strikes against Iranian facilities. Israeli officials are also accusing Tehran of orchestrating anti-Israeli bombings in India and Georgia as well as blasts in Thailand. Iran denies the allegations. The first Iranian presence in the Mediterranean in February 2011 provoked strong reactions from Israel and the United States, with the Jewish state putting its navy on alert. During the 2011 deployment, two Iranian vessels, a destroyer and a supply ship, sailed past the coast of Israel and docked at the Syrian port of Latakia before returning to Iran via the Red Sea.Israeli leaders denounced the move as a "provocation" and a "powerplay."Iran's navy has been boosting its presence in international waters in the past two years, deploying vessels to the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden on missions to protect Iranian ships from Somali pirates. And Iran sent submarines to the Red Sea last June to "collect data," its first such mission in distant waters, while its naval commanders say they plan on deploying ships close to US territorial waters in the future. Iranian naval forces are composed of small units, including speedboats equipped with missiles, which operate in the Gulf and are under the command of the Revolutionary Guards. The navy, using small frigates, destroyers, and three Russian-made Kilo class submarines, oversees high seas missions in the Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Aden. It now permanently has at least two vessels in those areas to escort merchant ships, and has been involved in more than 100 confrontations with armed pirates, according to the navy commander in December.

NEWS,17.02.2012.

Dutch prince buried in avalanche in critical condition

Dutch prince Johan Friso 

Dutch Prince Johan Friso is in critical condition in hospital after he was buried in an avalanche while skiing off piste in the Austrian Alps Friday, authorities said.Queen Beatrix's middle son was pulled unconscious from the snow 20 minutes after the accident and resuscitated, the mayor of the upscale western resort of Lech told the Austria Press Agency (APA).The prince was skiing with one companion away from marked ski runs when the mass of snow, 30 metres wide and 40 metres long, hit them around midday, APA said. The 43-year-old prince, who gave up his right to the throne a decade ago, was flown to the university clinic in the western city of Innsbruck. His condition was "stable but life threatening," and the queen and his wife were at his side, the Dutch government said in a statement. The Dutch royal family often spends winter holidays in Lech in the province of Vorarlberg - which like other parts of Austria has been blanketed with heavy snow in recent weeks. Many parts of the country have avalanche alerts in effect, but some adventurous skiers still venture off piste. In Lech, the alert level was four on a scale of five at the time."It was in open space, not on a secured piste," a Lech police official said about the place where the accident took place.A second Dutch government statement suggested it could take days before doctors would have a clearer picture of the prince's medical prognosis."The rescue chain functioned perfectly and worked within a short time," the police official in Lech. "After the emergency call, rescue crews were on the scene with rescue helicopters. He could be located immediately and freed," he said, adding the prince had been skiing with a group. A tourism official in Lech told APA the prince was wearing a beeper that helped rescue crews find him quickly and that the companion was able to free himself and call for help. Prince Johan Friso's older brother is Crown Prince Willem-Alexander and his younger brother is Prince Constantijn.Johan Friso gave up his right to the Dutch throne when he married a commoner whose past was considered too tainted for her to become a member of the Dutch royal house. When he asked for official permission in 2003 to marry Mabel Wisse Smit, Dutch media published details of her relationship with mobster Klaas Bruinsma, who was shot and killed in 1991 in front of the Amsterdam Hilton hotel. Following the revelations, the couple decided not to get official permission for their marriage. The London-based royal joined URENCO, a uranium enrichment company, in 2011 as chief financial officer after earlier working at investment bank Goldman Sachs.