NEWS,24.11.2012

Fiscal Cliff Raises Questions On Reality Of Debt Deal

 

President Barack Obama and leaders of the lame-duck Congress may be just weeks away from shaking hands on a deal to avert the dreaded "fiscal cliff." So it's natural to wonder: If they announce a bipartisan package promising to curb mushrooming federal deficits, will it be real?Both sides have struck cooperative tones since Obama's re-election. Even so, he and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, the GOP's pivotal bargainer, have spent most of the past two years in an acrid political climate in which both sides have fought stubbornly to protect their constituencies.Obama and top lawmakers could produce an agreement that takes a serious bite out of the government's growing $16 trillion pile of debt and puts it on a true downward trajectory.Or they might reach an accord heading off massive tax increases and spending cuts that begin to bite in January that's the fiscal cliff while appearing to be getting tough on deficits through painful savings deferred until years from now, when their successors might revoke or dilute them.Historically, Congress and presidents have proven themselves capable of either. So before bargainers concoct a product, and assuming they can, here's a checklist of how to assess their work:

OVERALL DEFICIT CUTS

The House and Senate have four weeks until Christmas. Their leaders and the president want a deal before then. Bargainers are shooting for a framework setting future debt-reduction targets, with detailed tax and spending changes to be approved next year but possibly some initial savings enacted immediately.Obama has suggested 10-year savings totaling around $4.4 trillion.Passing a framework next month that sets deficit-cutting targets for each of the next 10 years would be seen as a sign of seriousness. But look for specifics. An agreement will have a greater chance of actually reducing deficits if it details how the savings would be divided between revenue increases and cuts in federal programs, averting future fights among lawmakers over that question.Better yet would be including a fast-track process for passing next year's tax and spending bills if they meet the savings targets so they can whisk through Congress without the possibility of a Senate filibuster, in which 41 of the 100 senators could kill a measure they dislike.Another sign of sincerity: An enforcement mechanism that imposes savings automatically if lawmakers gridlock over details. Legislators' efforts now to avert January's combination of automatic tax boosts and spending cuts underscores the effectiveness of forcing them to act.Less impressive would be verbal pledges by the White House and congressional leaders to meet deficit-cutting goals without passing legislation inscribing the figures into law.

TAXES

A deal that specifies where revenue would come from would lay important groundwork for next year's follow-up bill enacting actual changes in tax laws.The biggest clash has been over whether to raise income tax rates on earnings over $200,000 annually for individuals, $250,000 for families. Obama wants to let them rise next year to a top rate of 39.6 percent but has suggested he would compromise. Boehner and other Republicans oppose any increase above today's top marginal rate of 35 percent. Instead, they advocate lower rates and eliminating or reducing unspecified deductions and tax credits. Settling that would resolve the toughest impediment to a deal.Raising money from higher rates, closing loopholes or a combination of the two would create real revenue for the government. The problem is many tax deductions and credits , such as for home mortgages and the value of employer-provided health insurance, are so popular that enacting them into law over objections from the public and lobbyists would be extremely difficult.With the price tags of tax and spending laws typically measured over a decade, delaying the implementation date can distort the projected impact of a change on people and the government's debt.Tax cuts written to expire in a certain year can put future lawmakers under political pressure to extend it. That is what Obama and Congress face today with the January expiration of tax cuts, including many enacted a decade ago under President George W. Bush.Even more questionable are assumptions that overhauling tax laws will boost economic activity and thus produce large new revenues for the government. Many Republicans and ideologically conservative economists contend that's the case, but most economists say there is no sound way to estimate how much revenue can be generated from strengthening the economy by revamping the tax system. Many believe the amount is modest.

SPENDNG

A serious agreement should specify how much savings would come from entitlements, meaning those big, costly benefit programs such as Social Security and Medicare. It also should say how much would come from discretionary spending, which covers federal agency budgets for everything from the military and national parks to food safety inspections and weather forecasts.Why the need for specificity?Because spending for entitlements occurs automatically, accounts for nearly two-thirds of federal spending and is the fastest growing part of the budget. Discretionary spending has been shackled by past budget deals and, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, is moving toward falling below 6 percent the size of the economy by 2022, the lowest level in at least 50 years.A sincere effort to control expenditures would focus on entitlements, the true source of the government's spending problem. An agreement that envisions deep discretionary cuts risks a reliance on savings that future lawmakers could find unbearable and rescind.Savings that come from weeding out waste, fraud and abuse, which sounds good but are difficult to find, or rely on one-time sales of federal assets should be treated with suspicion.Deep cuts that take effect in the future, say after Obama leaves office in 2017, might be better than imposing them now and hurting an already weak economy by reducing spending.But delayed cuts also open the door for Obama's successors and future Congresses to roll them back. In 1997, Congress voted for cuts in Medicare reimbursements to doctors; those cuts have grown so large that lawmakers now vote annually to restore the money.Postponing the implementation of spending increases already scheduled to take effect, such as federal health insurance subsidies under Obama's health care overhaul, saves money upfront but makes no permanent changes that would ease future spending pressures.Another debatable source of deficit reduction would be the hundreds of billions of dollars the Obama administration says the government is saving by winding down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. While there is no question those expenditures are dropping, the government has run huge deficits while those wars were waged, so there's no money being left unspent as those wars end.

Allies help UK's Cameron prevail in EU showdown

British Prime Minister David Cameron has gained allies in his fight against EU spending rises to avoid having to wield a solitary veto that would have further isolated Britain and fuelled questions about its future in the 27-nation bloc.The collapse of talks in Brussels to agree a 1 trillion euro ($US1.30 trillion) budget also meant Cameron for now will avoid having to present a deal to a fractious parliament that defeated him last month in a vote calling for European Union spending cuts.That undermined Cameron's authority and raised doubts about how he would appease anti-EU rebels in his Conservative Party without upsetting partners in Europe, Britain's biggest trading partner.Last December, Cameron angered many EU neighbours when he became the first British prime minister to veto an EU treaty, blocking plans for stricter fiscal rules in the euro zone. He warned he was prepared to do it again.There was talk of the other 26 countries reaching a budget deal without Britain, while the opposition Labour Party said Britain under Cameron risked "sleepwalking" out of the EU."There might have been (attempts) to say let's just put the British in a box over there and do a deal without them," Cameron said after the talks ended."That didn't work because there are other countries that I worked with very closely."Cameron, who wants a budget freeze, said Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark supported tighter spending controls. Attempts to find a 2014-2020 budget will resume early next year.Cameron faced a difficult balancing act. Trailing in opinion polls, he had to appear tough to the growing chunk of voters who would vote to leave the EU, seen by critics as a wasteful super-state that threatens British sovereignty.He also was squeezed by anti-EU Conservatives, a group that unseated former leader Margaret Thatcher and wants to use the euro zone crisis to rethink Britain's EU role.However, Britain had to be careful to avoid upsetting its main trading partner at a time of austerity. London also wants to retain influence before a critical summit next month on plans for a European banking union.Cameron's pro-European coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, had warned him to tone down the anti-EU talk.According to one EU diplomat, Cameron "played it well", defying expectations he would be the "bad guy", and winning the support of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.The Labour-supporting Guardian newspaper said the scale of the divisions among the other countries had helped Cameron."With no one in Europe agreeing on anything, he could strike a moderate tone," it said in an editorial.

 

Thai police fire tear gas in clash with hundreds of protesters

Thai police have fired tear gas in clashes with hundreds of protesters in Bangkok ahead of a rally seeking to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in the largest demonstration yet against her administration.The protest highlights tensions which have been simmering since Yingluck's Puea Thai party swept to victory in July 2011 and could herald another period of unrest in Thailand.Anti-riot police wielding plastic shields fired gas canisters at protesters who tried to climb over cement and barbed wire barriers blocking entry to the rally site. Police said "between 300 and 400 protesters" clashed with police.At least seven police were wounded and up to 132 protesters arrested in the clash near the United Nations headquarters in Bangkok, a stone's throw away from the main rally site.Pitak Siam, a new anti-government group, has attracted the support of various royalist groups including 'yellow shirt' members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) who helped destabilise governments either led or backed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's brother, in 2006 and 2008.Authorities have deployed 17,000 police at the rally site and the government has invoked the Internal Security Act allowing police to detain protesters and carry out security checks and set up roadblocks.Police said they have seized various weapons, including knives and bullets, as protesters arrived at the protest area."We used tear gas because protesters were blocking police and did not comply with the security measures we put in place," police spokesman Piya Uthaya told a local TV station.Thailand has seen frequent bloody street protests in recent years including a rally that lasted more than two months by supporters of the present government in 2010.Those protests sparked a military crackdown that left at least 91 people dead and more than 1700 injured.The royalist Pitak Siam group, led by retired military general Boonlert Kaewprasit, accused Yingluck's government of corruption and being a puppet of former premier Thaksin.Thaksin remains a deeply divisive figure in Thailand. He was ousted in a 2006 military-backed coup and fled the country in 2008 shortly before being found guilty of abuse of power."I'm telling Thaksin that if he wants to return to Thailand he needs to bow before the king and serve his prison sentence," Boonlert told the thousands of protesters at the rally site.Some held pictures of Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej as Boonlert shouted "Yingluck, get out" to cheers of his supporters.Thailand has seen a series of political protests since 2006 with pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin groups taking turns to challenge various administrations' right to rule.

NEWS,22.11.2012

Summit fatigue leads to bad decisions

The European Union may have won the Nobel Peace Prize this year, but to many EU leaders, officials, diplomats and even journalists, it can feel more like a torture chamber.Increasingly, Europe is governed at night by leaders in an advanced state of exhaustion, disregarding scientific evidence that this can lead to bad decisions, or non-decisions.Over the past three years, the EU has held 25 summits to try to tackle its debt crisis and related economic turmoil, with few of those meetings ending before 3 or 4 am, usually after 12 hours or more of near-fruitless negotiation. Add to that more than 40 finance ministers' meetings, the most recent of which ended at 5 am on Wednesday, again without agreement, and it is easy to see how a set of institutions designed to foster peace and stability in Europe can end up delivering frustration, angst and head-numbing pain."I'll put it this way: I woke up at 5 am or 5:30 am yesterday and we ended in the morning around 4 am," Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico complained after the last, largely unsuccessful summit in October. "This is how all of us operate, we adopt very serious decisions under pressure," he said, referring to the EU's increasingly weary heads of state and government. The EU's 27 leaders gathered for another summit on Thursday and Friday, this time to try to hammer out an agreement on around €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) of spending over the next seven years. It promises to be a bruising clash of national interests rather than the model of reconciliation and harmony commended by the Nobel committee, although it will still be "jaw, jaw" rather than "war, war". Gatherings to negotiate the long-term budget only happen every 6 or 7 years and are notorious for running over deadline and for being extremely hard-nosed and ill-tempered affairs. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair described his experience of it in 2005 as the most difficult negotiation he handled while in office, tougher even than the 1998 Northern Ireland peace talks that led to the Good Friday agreement. Already EU officials are warning that these budget talks could run into Saturday and Sunday, making it what is known in diplomatic circles as a "four-shirt" summit.Staff at the European Council in Brussels, where EU leaders meet, have been told to be ready to work into Saturday at least. British Prime Minister David Cameron has cleared his schedule for the entire weekend, a spokesperson said. French President Francois Hollande has done the same. Journalists, around 1 500 of whom are accredited to cover the meeting, took up residence in the vast glass and steel entrance hall on Thursday morning and will stay encamped there until a deal is done, or negotiations break down. The effect on the EU's public image among its 500 million citizens is unedifying."It's not exactly glamorous and some would say it's downright torture," said one EU diplomat, a veteran of at least 30 EU summits. "Everyone gets extremely fed up."Sweden has organised extra bedding for its diplomats to take a rest in their delegation room if necessary.Bad decision making? The larger issue, though, is whether the pressure-cooker atmosphere and endlessly drawn-out negotiating schedule is conducive to good decision-making.Everyone knows that drivers should take a rest after four or five hours at the wheel to avoid accidents. Shouldn't the leaders of nation states take the same precaution lest they take a bad decision that might run their country off the road?A study published by three academics in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States last year showed that a judge's willingness to grant parole can depend to a large extent on how tired he or she is and when they last ate.The study examined more than 1 000 parole decisions made by experienced judges over a 10-month period. It found that the more decisions judges have to make, the more difficult it becomes to stay consistent, they get decision fatigue."The theory determines that decision-making capacity is a limited resource, and when many decisions are made in sequence, the mental capacity diminishes," Professor Shai Danziger of Ben-Gurion University, one of the authors, said at the time.That could be a lesson for EU leaders and the political advisers, diplomats and hangers-on who have to help them make the right decisions time and again for days in a row.One experienced EU ambassador, a veteran of multiple foreign postings in high-pressure places, said a lesson could be drawn from how Israel handles Middle East talks.When the Oslo peace accords were being negotiated with the Palestinians in the mid-1990s, Israel would change its negotiating team every six hours or so to avoid fatigue and the risk of mistakes."No one can negotiate at full capacity for more than six hours at a time, you just can't concentrate that long," the ambassador said. "They wanted to make sure they had a fresh team that was at its sharpest."China has employed similar tactics in business and trade negotiations, officials say.By contrast, EU leaders will have at least 12 straight hours of negotiation on each of the next two days and more if the meeting drags on into the weekend.And if that isn't enough, there's another meeting of finance ministers starting on Monday evening.

Lessons of the Gaza War

Now that the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has begun to take effect (at least for now), it's time to begin to assess the outcome of the war, and where we go from here.

1. The big star and game changer is the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. Without it, there would have been many more Israeli casualties, and the Netanyahu government would undoubtedly have sent ground troops into Gaza. Look for the immediate hot topic in security circles to be anti-missile defense systems, and look for American aid to Israel to increase on this front. President Obama has already indicated his support.
2. Israel often has a hawkish reputation, but it is amazing that it has watched as Hamas and Hezbollah on its southern and northern borders gradually escalated missile capabilities. We Americans wouldn't have done that if some group developed much less of a capability on our Canadian or Mexican borders, let alone both. Look for Israeli hawks and doves to both argue that their analysis was correct, and recommend policies accordingly.
3. Hamas is a big winner. Even in the last hours of the conflict, it was still capable of attacking Israel. Look for an enhanced Hamas prestige among Palestinians and in the Arab world. More troubles for the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinian Authority.
4. But, at least in the short term, look for a longer term truce and the dramatic reduction of missiles from Gaza raining on Israel, and therefore a limit on Israeli retaliations. Look for both sides to declare victories; greater standing for Hamas, and enhanced deterrence for the Israelis.
5. The new Islamist Egyptian government performed well in becoming the main sponsor of the cease-fire agreement, but the Sinai -- the conduit for arms to Gaza -- has become more lethal than ever. Look for pressure to increase on Egypt to do something about Sinai, and for quiet discussions calling for the addition of western advisers to help to regain Cairo's control. Egypt's role in the cease-fire and its weakness in Sinai could and should actually enhance the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty if it is handled properly.
6. Iran is a big winner. It managed to provide the missiles to Hamas via Sudan and through the Sinai that had the greatest psychological impact on both Israelis and Arabs alike by seeming to threaten Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem.
7. At the same time, the confrontation with Iran becomes more complex, as there will be mixed interpretations of the meaning of the Gaza War. On the one hand, there will be less enthusiasm for an attack on its developing nuclear weapons program among the already wary Israeli public and a significant number of security specialists, reinforced by American and European caution. On the other hand, others will argue that the Hamas arsenal suggests that a nuclear Iran would be even more dangerous. Look for intensified disputes in the months to come about a possible attack on Iran, even tougher sanctions, and more pressure on President Obama to both try to reach a negotiated settlement on that front and to consider American action.
8. Similarly, as suggested in the cease-fire agreement, there will be alleviation of the already-diminished Israeli blockade of Gaza. Look for much greater flexibility on civilian goods entering Gaza and much more attention to the passage of Libyan and Iranian arms (through Sudan to Egypt) to Hamas.
9. The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas is a big loser. It will be more difficult than ever to bolster the Fatah leadership on the West Bank as Hamas grows in stature. The United States will be challenged to provide more economic aid and more diplomatic activity on the peace process. Look for much more attention to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process than at any time since mid-2011, when President Obama's initiative at the time quickly fizzled.
10. American efforts will be more complicated than ever because of the imminent Palestinian bid to become a non-member observer state at the UN. At least in the short term, membership will strengthen Abbas, but the missile war with Israel strengthens the possibility of Hamas leadership. The U.S. cannot afford Hamas, an ally of Iran, potentially representing Palestine at the UN, should Abbas weaken further. Look for the U.S. to try to square the circle by increasing its opposition to the Abbas UN initiative, and simultaneously attempting to strengthen Abbas through economic aid and the resumption of diplomacy on the peace process front. That might have the chance of some success if the conflict over the UN bid, now presumed to trigger diminished aid to Abbas, can somehow be resolved.

During the Gaza War, President Obama was traveling in Southeast Asia, as part of the administration's vaunted "pivot" to Asia. It's a good policy, but the Middle East followed him there. As the president contemplates new appointments in the foreign policy arena, he will have to consider that just as the U.S. necessarily begins to pay more attention to the Asian front, the conflicts and problems of the Middle East will stubbornly remain. We will be stuck with a very complex region we cannot ignore for a very long time to come.

NEWS,19.11.2012

Global shadow banking hits $67 trillion

The system of so-called shadow banking blamed for aggravating the global financial crisis grew to $67 trillion globally last year, a new high, amid calls from the world's top policymakers for greater control of the sector.A report by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) on Sunday appeared to confirm fears among policy makers that shadow banking is set to thrive, beyond the reach of a regulatory net tightening around traditional banks and their activities.Officials at the European Commission in Brussels see closer control of the sector as important in preventing a repeat of the financial crisis that toppled banks over the past five years and rocked the euro zone.The study by the FSB, set up by the world's top economies (G20) to police global finance, said shadow banking around the world more than doubled to £62 trillion in the five years to 2007 before the crisis struck.But the size of the total system had risen to $67 trillion in 2011, more than the total economic output of all the countries in the study.The multi-trillion dollar activities of hedge funds and private equity companies are often cited as examples of shadow banking.But the term also covers investment funds, money-market funds and even cash-rich firms that lend government bonds to banks, and which in turn use them as security when taking credit from the European Central Bank Even the man credited with coining the term, former investment executive Paul McCulley, gave a catch-all definition.McCulley said he understood shadow banking to mean "the whole alphabet soup of levered up non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures", such as the special investment vehicles that many blamed for the financial crisis.The United States had the largest shadow banking system, said the FSB, with assets of $23 trillion in 2011, followed by the euro area with $22 trillion and the United Kingdom at $9 trillion.The US share of the global shadow banking system has declined in recent years, the FSB said, while the shares of the United Kingdom and the euro area have increased.The FSB warned that tighter rules that force banks to hoard more capital reserves to cover losses could bolster shadow banking.It advocates better controls, although cautions that shadow banking reforms should be dealt with carefully because the sector can also be a source of credit for business and consumers.Forms of shadow banking can include securitisation, which can transform bank loans into a tradeable instrument that can then be used to refinance credit, making it easier to lend.In the run-up to the crisis, however, banks such as Germany's IKB stored billions of euros of such instruments in off-balance sheet vehicles, which later unravelled. Another example is a repurchasing agreement, or repo, where a player such as a hedge fund could sell government bonds it owns to a bank, agreeing to repurchase them later.The bank may then lend those bonds onto another hedge fund, taking a position on the government debt. Such agreements are used by banks to lend and borrow. A risk could arise if one of the parties in the chain collapses.The European Commission is expected to propose EU-wide rules for shadow banking next year.

 

Stocks, commodities rise on fiscal cliff hopes

World share markets and commodities surged yesterday as traders focused on politicians' indications that they are ready to compromise to avoid the US "fiscal cliff".Wall Street stocks climbed more than 1%, extending a rally that began on Friday, while crude oil was up more than 2%.US lawmakers indicated compromises were possible in negotiations to avert US$600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January - the "fiscal cliff" that threatens to send the US economy back into recession.Democratic Senator Dick Durbin said on CNN: "What I hear is a perceptible change in rhetoric from the other side."Also appearing on CNN, Republican Representative Tom Price said: "Every member of our caucus appreciates that this fiscal crisis, this challenge that we have, is ever closer."Opinion polls show that Republicans would shoulder more of the blame if the country goes over the fiscal cliff.MSCI's world equity index jumped 1.8%, in one session erasing the 1.8% drop it posted last week. Monday was the best day for the index since September 14."Stocks could rise substantially if US policymakers can negotiate a 'grand bargain' that credibly addresses long-term tax, spending, and entitlement reforms," said Jonathan Golub, strategist at UBS in New York.The Dow Jones industrial average was up 160.54 points, or 1.28% , at 12,748.85. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index was up 21.22 points, or 1.56%, at 1,381.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 46.39 points, or 1.63%, at 2,899.52.Optimism in Europe over the prospects of a deal this week to release much-needed aid for Greece also lent support.European officials are expected to discuss a two-year funding plan for Athens at a meeting on Tuesday, which would postpone any longer-term solution until after a September 2013 German general election.European Central Bank policymaker Joerg Asmussen said last weekend that the ministers were likely to agree to the deal and leave resolution of a longer-term debt stabilisation plan for Greece, at the heart of a disagreement with the IMF, until later.The euro rose 0.56% to $1.281, well above the two-month low of $1.2661 hit last week and near the top end of its recent range, suggesting the foreign exchange market expects an agreement on Greece."This message from the ECB would tell me that, yes, what we are heading to this week is an agreement that would keep Greece out of trouble for the next year or so," said Gilles Moec, senior European economist at Deutsche Bank.European share markets rebounded from last week's lows, mainly on the growing optimism over the US political negotiations.The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 2.3% higher, led by sectors tied to the pace of economic growth. Banks climbed 3.6% , with US shares of Barclays up 5.6% to $15.82.In the region's main centres, London's FTSE 100, was up 2.4%, while Frankfurt's DAX and Paris' CAC-40 rose more than 2%.Safe-haven bond markets reflected the stronger risk appetite, with the 10-year US Treasury down 10/32 to yield 1.6165%.The 10-year German government bond fell and its yield rose to 1.362% from 1.326% on Friday. Traders said there was room for yields to rise if euro zone policymakers reached an agreement at their meeting on Tuesday.In the currency markets, the dollar briefly extended its gains against the yen on expectations a new Japanese government will push the central bank to taking aggressive monetary stimulus measures to boost growth after next month's elections.The greenback was slightly lower against the yen at 81.24. Earlier, it rose to its highest level since April 25.The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting on Monday but was not expected to take any new policy steps before the December 16 vote.The rising hopes of a deal on closing the US budget gap, which has clouded the outlook for global growth, spread through commodity markets, lifting oil, copper and gold.Copper rallied 2.6% to $7,803.5 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, and gold rose $19.52 to $1,733.2 an ounce.A 0.5% drop in the dollar index, which had eased from a two-month high hit on Friday, added to demand by making commodities priced in the greenback more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel as the escalating violence between Israel and the Palestinians fuelled concern about supplies from the Middle East.Investors fear the conflict may draw in other countries and possibly disrupt energy exports from the region, which supplies more than a third of the world's crude.Brent crude for January delivery was up 2.5% and U.S. crude futures added 2.8%.

 

European stocks make biggest rebound in 10 weeks

European equities have rebounded from multi-month lows to post their biggest daily gain in 10 weeks, thanks to signs of progress in US talks to avoid a budget crisis.Leading Democratic and Republican lawmakers voiced confidence over the weekend that a deal would be reached to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of some US$600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts which threatens to plunge the United States into recession in 2013.An unexpected rise in US existing home sales for October added to the brighter sentiment towards the world's biggest economy on Monday, which has become a significant source of growth for European companies as their domestic region stagnates."The news about the fiscal cliff over the past few days has been much more positive," said Donald Huber, portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investments, which has about US$750 billion in assets under management.The FTSEurofirst 300 index provisionally closed up 2.3% to 1,091.50 points, while the EuroSTOXX 50 rose 2.8% to 2,495.19 points -- both posting their biggest one-day gain since early September and rebounding from multi-month lows.The rebound comes after EuroSTOXX 50 dipped into technically oversold territory on the seven-day relative strength index (RSI) on Friday for the first time in nearly two months.Then, a big rally followed but ran out of steam after two sessions, and this time too analysts were doubtful about the sustainability of the gains unless the fiscal cliff problem is actually resolved rather than just postponed."We had the lows and the market is oversold... so it is just short-covering," said Vincent Guenzi, chief strategist at Cholet Dupont."That [progress in negotiations] was the catalyst for the short-term gain of the market. That could help the market maybe gain 1% or 2% more, but to really have the end of the downtrend of the last weeks we need something real."Monday's broad-based rally took all the STOXX 600 sector indexes into positive territory, led by economically sensitive ones like autos, banks, construction, technology and basic resources.Healthcare, which is less dependent on economic cycles for demand, lagged with a rise of 1%.Nokia was a top gainer among individual stocks, with reports of its Lumia 920 selling out in Germany fuelling hopes of strong demand for the new smartphone.Shares in the Finnish cellphone maker added 9% on Monday, but are still down 39% since the start of 2012.Nokia is the most shorted company in EuroSTOXX 50, with 19.7% of outstanding shares on loan according to data from Markit, potentially making it vulnerable to sharp short-covering rallies on any sentiment improvement or positive news.That gives Nokia a utilisation rate - shares borrowed versus the total number available for loan - of 93.5%, against just 6.2% for EuroSTOXX 50 as a whole.

NEWS,16.11.2012

Road closures in Israel indicate military build-up

The Israeli army said today it was closing three roads that lead to, or border the Gaza Strip, in an indication of a probable military build-up in the area.Shortly before, political sources said Defence Minister Ehud Barak was seeking government approval to mobilise up to 75,000 reserve troops for Israel's Gaza campaign, in a sign of preparations for a possible ground offensive.Western governments are watching Egypt's response to the attacks for signs of a more assertive stance towards Israel since an Islamist came to power in the Arab world's most populous nation.President Mohamed Mursi is mindful of anti-Israeli sentiment among Egyptians emboldened by last year's Arab Spring uprising but needs to show Western allies his new government is no threat to Middle East peace.His prime minister, Hisham Kandil, visited Gaza today in a demonstration of solidarity after two days of strikes by Israeli warplanes targeting Gaza militants."We see what is happening in Gaza as blatant aggression against humanity," Mursi said in comments carried by Egypt's state news agency. "I warn and repeat my warning to the aggressors that they will never rule over the people of Gaza."I tell them in the name of all the Egyptian people that Egypt today is not the Egypt of yesterday, and Arabs today are not the Arabs of yesterday."The Egyptian foreign minister also spoke to his counterparts in the US, Jordan, Brazil and Italy on Friday to discuss the situation in Gaza, a statement from the foreign ministry said.Mohamed Kamel Amr spoke to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about the necessity of cooperation between the US and Egypt to end the military confrontations. Amr stressed the necessity of Israel ending attacks on Gaza and a truce being rebuilt between the two sides, the statement said.Mursi's toppled predecessor Hosni Mubarak was a staunch US ally who upheld a cold but stable peace with Israel.The new president has vowed to respect a three-decade peace treaty with the Jewish state. But ties have been strained by protests that forced the evacuation of Israel's ambassador to Cairo last year and cross-border attacks by Islamist militants.More than 1000 people gathered near Cairo's al-Azhar mosque after prayers, many waving Egyptian and Palestinian flags."Gaza Gaza, symbol of pride", they chanted, and "generation after generation, we declare our enmity towards you, Israel"."I cannot as an Egyptian, an Arab and a Muslim just sit back and watch the massacres in Gaza," said protester Abdel Aziz Nagy, 25, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.Protesters were marching from other areas of Cairo towards Tahrir Square, the main rallying point for last year's uprising.

Iran ready to double nuclear work in bunker -IAEA

Iran is set to sharply expand its uranium enrichment in an underground plant after installing all the centrifuges it was built for, a United Nations report said, a move likely to increase Western alarm about Tehran's nuclear course.It also showed Iran's stockpile of its most sensitive nuclear material grown and was getting closer to an amount that could be sufficient for a nuclear weapon.The latest quarterly International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran came 10 days after the re-election of US President Barack Obama, which raised hopes for a revival of nuclear diplomacy with Iran following speculation that Israel might attack the nuclear facilities of its arch-enemy soon.But the UN watchdog's findings underlined the tough task facing world powers seeking to pressure Iran to curb atomic activity they fear is aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability, a charge Tehran denies."The report paints the picture of Iran's continued lack of cooperation with the IAEA, and details its continued enrichment and installation of centrifuges in violation of UN Security Council resolutions," a senior Western diplomat said.The Islamic state has put in place the nearly 2800 centrifuges that the Fordow enrichment site was designed for and is poised to double the number of them operating to roughly 1400 from 700 now, according to the confidential IAEA report."They can be started any day. They are ready," a senior diplomat familiar with the IAEA's investigation said.If Iran chose to dedicate the new machines to produce higher-grade uranium, it could significantly shorten the time required for any bid to build an atomic bomb. Iran says it needs to refine uranium to make reactor fuel.In another potentially worrying development for the West, Iran appears to have virtually stopped converting this uranium into making civilian reactor fuel since the previous report.As a result, the stockpile of uranium gas refined to a fissile concentration of 20 percent increased by nearly 50 percent to 135 kg, the latest report said, still below the level of 200-250 kg experts say would be sufficient for an atomic bomb if refined further."This puts added pressure on the West's diplomacy with Iran, which has to operate on a tighter schedule," said research fellow Shashank Joshi at the Royal United Services Institute.Israel has recently signalled that an attack on Iran was not imminent - after months of talk that it might be on the cards soon by pointing to Iran's decision earlier this year to use part of its 20 percent uranium for civilian purposes."As Iran's 20% stockpile approaches around 240 kg, the Israeli sabre-rattling will resume,"

French PM tries to reassure Berlin

France's German-speaking prime minister has offered a worried Berlin reassurances his government would reduce the deficit and prevent France from becoming the next victim of the euro crisis by applying a new economic model.Jean-Marc Ayrault, making his first visit to Berlin since Francois Hollande became president, told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that France would find its own way to reduce spending and boost economic growth and jobs, rather than copying Germany."My challenge, the government's challenge, is to reform what isn't working, to correct what is too weak, but to keep the profound values that make France what it is," he told a joint news conference after talks with the conservative chancellor."The job that is under way is constructing the new French model," said Ayrault, a Socialist.A  report that Merkel's finance minister had asked the German government's economic advisers to consider preparing policy recommendations for France has stirred outrage in Paris.But Merkel said she would never dare to evaluate the decisions of the French government and added diplomatically: "We want a strong France just as France wants a strong Germany, so that together we can become a strong Europe."Ayrault also held a 20-minute meeting with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who emerged saying Germany and France did not "grade" each others' economic policies.But it was clear French pride had been stung. Ayrault told a conference in Berlin organised by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that his host country Germany also had its problems."The German population is ageing quicker than the French, which poses problems for pensions and social security," said the French premier."This sort of understanding for other countries' problems I expect it for my own country too."Paris is under intense pressure to improve French economic competitiveness relative to Germany and southern European countries that have implemented painful reforms to bring down their own debt in the face of a crippling three-year crisis.German officials are worried that without bolder reforms, France could get sucked into the crisis which has forced bailouts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in what would be a crushing setback for the bloc's efforts to stem the turmoil.In response to calls by industrialist Louis Gallois for cuts in labour charges to reverse decades of industrial decline, the French government has now announced plans to grant companies 20 billion euros in annual tax credits to lower labour costs.Ayrault cited this as one example of the "courage" France's Socialist government was showing on economic reforms.His knowledge of Germany and its language may have been one of the reasons for his appointment. Relations between Merkel and the new president are often contrasted with the close partnership - especially on the euro crisis that she enjoyed with Hollande's conservative predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy.Hollande criticised Merkel's focus on austerity for the euro zone during his election campaign and the new Franco-German leadership couple have not got off to the best start."The main thing is to build a personal relationship," Ayrault said, adding that although the two governments belonged to opposing political factions, their relationship had to be "ueberparteilich" the German word for non-partisan.Ayrault and Merkel both rejected suggestions that the French premier's plans to meet Germany's centre-left opposition Social Democrats on Friday - less than a year before federal elections when Merkel will seek a third term undermined this ideal."The important thing is for us to work together well," said Merkel.

NEWS,13.11.2012

Latin America's middle class now rivals poor, study finds

Rapid economic growth and more inclusive social policies in Latin America in the last decade have lifted 50 million people into the middle class, which for the first time rivals the poor in number, the World Bank has said in a new study.Rising income levels have also created a 'vulnerable' class, which at 38% makes up the largest income group.These people hover just above poverty, living on a daily income between $US4 and $US10 per person."As poverty fell and the middle class rose... the most common Latin American family is in a state of vulnerability," the World Bank, the global development lender, said in a report looking at the middle class and economic mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean . The World Bank measures the middle class as people who have economic security, facing less than a 10% chance of falling back into poverty.For the region, that translates into a daily income of $US10 to $US50 ($12 and $61) per person.Roughly 30% of the population now falls into that category, equal to the third of people still in poverty a remarkable shift in a continent that has been known for its vast income inequalities, dominated by the poor and a narrow slice of the rich.With global economic expansion, and redistributive policies in some countries, at least 40 percent of the region's population has moved to a higher economic class between 1995 and 2010.In Brazil, the region's largest nation and the world's sixth biggest economy, booming commodity-led growth and conditional cash transfers helped pull 30 million people out of poverty under left-leaning former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.Across the region, the rise of the middle class has had clear effects, helping countries like Brazil become less reliant on foreign assistance and less amenable to foreign pressure.Latin America is now the only region in the world with narrowing income inequality, the World Bank said in a report last month, though the rich-poor divide remains higher than in most developed countries.It has nudged some countries toward greater democracy, and raised hopes for businesses eager to take advantage of the growing consumer tastes for everything from the Internet to financial services.The question is whether this rapid rise can continue, especially with the global slowdown.While families have improved their situation in the last decade, children are often still bound by the incomes and education of their parents, meaning mobility between generations remains low, the World Bank said.It is unclear whether the middle class's rising expectations can by themselves create a society of more equal opportunities.Traditionally in Latin America the middle class has opted out of public services like education and health if they can afford to do so, creating a fragmented society where the poorest members are stuck with subpar social protection. Low taxation has also exacerbated the problem of low-quality services, the World Bank said."The middle classes may not automatically become the much-hoped-for catalytic agents for reforms," the Bank said.

US re-elected to UN Human Rights Council

The United States was re-elected on Monday to another three-year term on the UN Human Rights Council in the only contested election for the organisation's top human rights body.The US was competing with four countries for three open seats belonging to the Western Group on the council. Germany and Ireland were also elected by the 193-member General Assembly. Greece and Sweden lost out.US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said her country was "pleased and proud to have been re-elected to a second three-year term"."I'm proud to say that, today, the Obama administration's leadership of the Human Rights Council has delivered real results. Today's vote affirms that active US leadership in the Human Rights Council and throughout the United Nations system will continue to pay real dividends for Americans and for the rest of the world," Rice said following the voteGermany's UN Ambassador Peter Wittig also praised the vote, thanking member states for their support."It was a good sign that we had a healthy competition at least in the Western Group, we could explain and promote our human rights agenda and we believe this also should also be an example for other regional groups," Wittig said.African, Asian, Eastern European and Latin American countries put forward uncontested slates, meaning candidates were virtually certain of winning one of the 18 open seats up for grabs in this year's election on the 47-member council.Several human rights groups have criticised a number of the candidates as unqualified, including Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Venezuela.On Monday, Venezuela's UN Ambassador Jorge Valero said his country's efforts to become a member of the council had "unleashed a truly unusual campaign"."It's important to emphasise that Venezuela has committed itself to defend the sovereignty and liberty of people," Valerio said in an apparent allusion to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's comments that Venezuela would oppose any actions or aggressions against allied countries such as Syria or Cuba.The five Western nations competing for seats were all deemed qualified by the rights groups as was Estonia, which was elected from the Eastern Europe groupAlso elected on Monday were Argentina, Brazil, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Gabon, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Montenegro, Pakistan, South Korea, Sierra Leone and the United Arab Emirates. They begin three-year terms on 1 January 2013.Jamil Dakwar, the director of the American Civil Liberties Union's Human Rights Programme, welcomed the US re-election to the council."Despite an imperfect human rights record, US membership on the council helped turn the tide on key issues, especially in the area of LGBT [Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender] rights, freedom of speech and association, and women's rights," Dakwar said in a statement. "Now that the Obama administration has won a second term, human rights at home and abroad should be a high priority." The Human Rights Council was created in March 2006 to replace the UN's widely discredited and highly politicised Human Rights Commission. But the council has also been widely criticised for failing to change many of the commission's practices, including putting much more emphasis on Israel than on any other country and electing candidates accused of serious human rights violations.Former President George W Bush's administration boycotted the council when it was established because of its repeated criticism of Israel and its refusal to cite flagrant rights abuses in Sudan and elsewhere. But in 2009, then newly elected President Barack Obama sought to join the council, saying the US wanted to help make it more effective. Rice said Obama's decision was vindicated on Monday when the US was re-elected to serve on the council with 131 votes."The United States is clearly of the view that the Human Rights Council clearly has its flaws ... including its excessive focus on Israel, but it is also a body that is increasingly proving its value and we've been proud to contribute to some of what we think are some of the finer moments of the Human Rights Council it's approach to Syria, it's approach to Sudan, it's approach he situation in Libya with the commission of inquiry."

Satellite shows N Korea missile activity

Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been testing rocket engines, a sign it continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, a US academic institute said on Monday.The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North launched a rocket from there in a failed attempt to propel a satellite into space in defiance of a UN ban.The analysis on the website of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is called "38 North", said it remains unclear whether the North is preparing another rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013.The analysis underscores the challenges posed by the North's weapons programmes to the United States and its allies as President Barack Obama heads into his second term. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze in the North's nuclear programme and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch that the US regarded as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology.In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and its second nuclear weapon within months of Obama taking office, and the 38 North analysis says North Korea may conduct new tests in the aftermath of presidential elections recently completed in US and due in December in South Korea. That could be viewed as a tactic to exert more pressure on the close allies as the North seeks recognition as a nuclear power.Last month, Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said North Korea continues to prepare for such tests, and the North, angered by Washington's recent agreement to let Seoul possess missiles capable of hitting all of its territory, has recently claimed that the US mainland is within range of its missiles.According to South Korea's Defence Ministry, North Korean missiles are believed to have a range of up to about 6 696km, putting parts of Alaska within reach. But the North is not believed to have mastered the technology needed to hit a distant target and miniaturise a nuclear warhead to mount on a missile. The North has a spotty record in test launches, raising doubts about whether it is truly capable of a long-distance attack.The 38 North analysis concludes that since the failed launch on 13 April of the Unha-3 rocket that disintegrated shortly after takeoff, the North has conducted at least two, and possibly more, tests of large rocket motors at a test site less than a kilometre away. The tests are critical for the development of new rockets."Pyongyang's large motor tests are another clear sign that its missile programme is moving forward. Whether there will be another long-range missile test this spring remains unclear but is a distinct possibility," said Joel Wit, a former US State Department official and editor of 38 North.A 9 April satellite image shows what appear to be dozens of fuel tanks near a stand used for conducting tests of rocket engines. A 17 September image shows the tanks are no longer there, and a flame trench has been stained orange and surrounding vegetation has been burned from the exhaust of an engine. An image from 28 September indicates a further test has taken place.The analysis was written by Nick Hansen, a retired expert in imagery technology with a 43-year experience in national intelligence.He concludes the tests were likely of the first-stage engines of the Unha-3 or the new, bigger KN-08 long-range missile first viewed in a military parade in Pyongyang shortly after the April launch attempt.The capabilities of the KN-08 and whether it could pose a potential threat to the continental United States remains unclear. Some analysts have also questioned whether the half-dozen of KN-08 missiles shown at that parade were genuine or just rigged up for show.The analysis by 38 North says the 28 September images also show construction work on the upper platform of a launch tower at Sohae to enable it to accommodate even larger rockets than the Unha-3 or KN-08.

NEWS,12.11.2012

Brazil Violence: At Least 140 Murdered In Sao Paulo Over Past Two Weeks

 

At least 140 people have been murdered in South America's biggest city over the past two weeks in a rising wave of violence, Sao Paulo's Public Safety Department says.Killings in Sao Paulo began sharply increasing in September, a month in which 144 people were killed, the department's website says. It says a total of 982 homicides took place in the city during the first nine months of the year.The victims included 90 police officers, most of them gunned down while off duty.A Public Safety Department official said Saturday that the killings of police have been ordered by imprisoned leaders of an organized crime group called the First Capital Command in reprisal for a crackdown on the drug trade. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.The First Capital Command is one of Brazil's most notorious organized crime groups. Based in Sao Paulo state prisons, the group allegedly was behind several waves of attacks on police, government buildings, banks and public buses in 2006. Those assaults and counterattacks by police in the slums killed more than 200 people.With the latest violence, shops and schools in some Sao Paulo districts closed early this past week as rumors of gang-imposed curfews spread. "In view of the wave of violence in the city's south zone, the school's directors decided to send staff and students home early so as to assure their safety," Eliane Valerio de Souza, administrative assistant at a professional training school, told the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.Sao Paulo state authorities last week said incarcerated leaders of the First Capital Command suspected of using smuggled cellphones to order attacks and coordinate drug sales, murders of rival gang members and the purchase of weapons, would be transferred to a maximum security federal prison outside the state.On Thursday, one of the gang's lower echelon leaders was sent go a federal penitentiary in northern Brazil. Others are expected be transferred by the end of the month.

Greece Racist Attacks Increase Amid Financial Crisis

 

The attack came seemingly out of nowhere. As the 28-year-old Bangladeshi man dug around trash bins one recent afternoon for scrap metal, two women and a man set upon him with a knife. He screamed as he fell. Rushed to the hospital, he was treated for a gash to the back of his thigh.Police are investigating the assault as yet another in a rising wave of extreme-right rage against foreigners as Greece sinks further into economic misery. The details vary, but the cold brutality of each attack is the same: Dark-skinned migrants confronted by thugs, attacked with knives and broken bottles, wooden bats and iron rods.Rights groups warn of an explosion in racist violence over the past year, with a notable surge since national elections in May and June that saw dramatic gains by the far-right Golden Dawn party. The severity of the attacks has increased too, they say. What started as simple fist beatings has now escalated to assaults with metal bars, bats and knives. Another new element: ferocious dogs used to terrorize the victims."Violence is getting wilder and wilder and we still have the same pattern of attacks ... committed by groups of people in quite an organized way," said Kostis Papaioannou, former head of the Greek National Commission for Human Rights.As Greece's financial crisis drags on for a third year, living standards for the average Greek have plummeted. A quarter of the labor force is out of work, with more than 50 percent of young people unemployed. An increasing number of Greeks can't afford basic necessities and healthcare. Robberies and burglaries are never out of the news for long.With Greece a major entry point for hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants seeking a better life in the European Union, foreigners have become a convenient scapegoat.Some victims turn up at clinics run by charities, recounting experiences of near lynching. Others are afraid to give doctors the details of what happened and even more afraid of going to the police. The more seriously hurt end up in hospitals, white bandages around their heads or plaster casts around broken limbs."Every day we see someone who complained of (some form) of racist violence," said Nikitas Kanakis, president of the Greek section of Doctors of the World, which runs a drop-in clinic and pharmacy in central Athens that treats the uninsured.Racist attacks are not officially recorded, so statistics are hard to come by. In an effort to plug that gap and sensitize a population numbed by three years of financial crisis, a group of rights groups and charities banded together to document the violence.They registered 87 cases of racist attacks between January and September, but say the true number runs into the hundreds."Most of the time the victims, they don't want to talk about this, they don't feel safe," Kanakis said. "The fear is present and this is the bigger problem."Frances William, who heads the tiny Tanzanian community of about 250 people, knows the feeling well."People are very, very much afraid," he said, adding that even going next door to buy bread, "I'm not sure I'll be safe to come back home."The community's cultural center was attacked several weeks ago, with amateur video shot from across the street showing a group of muscled men in black T-shirts smashing the entrance. Earlier that day, children standing outside during a birthday party were threatened by a man brandishing a pistol, William said.The recent elections showed a meteoric rise in popularity of the formerly marginalized Golden Dawn, which went from less than half a percent in 2009 elections to nearly 7 percent of the vote and 18 seats in the country's 300-member parliament in June.Campaigning on a promise to "clean up the stench" in Greece, the party whose slogan is "blood, honor, Golden Dawn" has made no secret of its views on migrants: All are in the country illegally and must be deported. Greece's borders must be sealed with landmines and military patrols, and any Greeks employing or renting property to migrants should face punishment.The party vehemently denies it is involved in racist attacks."The only racist attacks that exist in Greece for the last years are the attacks that illegal immigrants are doing against Greeks," said Ilias Panagiotaros, a burly Golden Dawn lawmaker who divides his working time between Parliament and his sports shop, which also sells military and police paraphernalia.His party is carrying out a "very legitimate, political fight . through parliament and through the neighborhoods of Athens and of Greece," he said.The party's tactics handing out food to poor Greeks, pledging to protect those who feel unprotected by the police are working. Recent opinion polls have shown Golden Dawn's support rising to between 9 and 12 percent.In late August, the conservative-led coalition government began addressing the issue of illegal immigration by rounding up migrants. By early November, they had detained more than 48,480 people, arresting 3,672 of them for being in the country illegally.Rights groups also warn that what started as xenophobic attacks is now spreading to include anyone who might disagree with the hard-right view. Greek society must understand that the far-right rise doesn't just concern migrants, said Kanakis."It has to do with all of us," he said. "It's a problem of everyday democracy."

U.S. To Become World's Largest Oil Producer, Exceeding Saudi Arabia, By 2020: International Energy Agency

 

The United States will become the world's largest oil producer by around 2020, temporarily overtaking Saudi Arabia, as new exploration technologies help find more resources, the International Energy Agency forecast on Monday.In its World Energy Outlook, the energy watchdog also predicted that greater oil and natural gas production thanks partly to a boom in shale gas output as well as more efficient use of energy will allow the U.S., which now imports around 20 percent of its energy needs, to become nearly self-sufficient around 2035. That is "a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries," the Paris-based IEA said in its report. "Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America and the energy sector."Rebounding U.S. oil and gas production is "steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade," the IEA said.For example, oil exports out of the Mideast will increasingly go to Asia as the U.S. becomes more self-sufficient. That will increase the global focus on the security of strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. Tensions between Iran and Western powers have raised concerns that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could be blocked in a potential conflict over Tehran's alleged plan to develop nuclear weapons.The IEA added that global trends in the energy markets will be influenced by some countries' retreat from nuclear power, the fast spread of wind and solar technologies and a rise in unconventional gas production.The agency concluded that despite the rising use of low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels "dominant in the global energy mix.""Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path," the IEA said.Global energy needs are forecast to increase by a third by 2035, with 60 percent of the additional demand coming from China, India and the Middle East.