NEWS,25.11.2012

Thousands of Italians rally against austerity

Tens of thousands of students and workers rallied across Italy today, to protest against austerity measures imposed by Prime Minister Mario Monti's technocrat government.Appointed a year ago when Italy came close to a Greek-style debt crisis, Monti has pushed through painful tax increases and spending cuts to try to rein in public finances at a time when schools and universities say they desperately need more support."We need to fight for our rights. This government doesn't represent us and these austerity measures and all the cuts they've introduced are totally anti-democratic," said student protester Tommaso Bernardi, attending a rally in Rome.Far-right group Casapound marched through the capital Rome later on Saturday, chanting "Monti, go away!". Anti-fascists staged a counter-demonstration in another part of town."This government is making the nation starve and is destroying the social welfare system," said Casapound president Gianluca Iannone. "The weakest are hit hardest - the disabled, students and single-income families."Police organised different routes and times for the rallies to reduce the risk of violence after scuffles broke out between police and demonstrators during protests on November 14 that saw the police criticised for heavy-handed tactics.Several thousand students and workers also rallied in other cities including Naples, Florence and Catania.No clashes were reported but the widespread protests highlighted the scale of discontent in the recession-hit country ahead of parliamentary elections next year."We need to change this country, starting from investments in schools, universities and culture," said Michele Orezzi, a university union coordinator, adding that Italy's education system was "crumbling into pieces".With youth unemployment at about 35%, more than three times the national average, and Monti's austerity policies biting into education spending, school pupils and university students have taken an active role in anti-government protests.Much anger is focused on an education reform bill going through parliament that would give schools more autonomy and allow them to accept other sources of funding than the state. Protesters believe this is intended to encourage privatisation.Students have occupied schools around Rome in recent weeks to express their anger and frustration at repeated funding cuts, chaining gates shut and camping inside classrooms.Monti has defended his austerity plan, saying he believes his technocrat government will be remembered for having helped Italy pull itself out of a deep economic crisis without needing to resort to external aid.Italy has been the European Union's most sluggish economy for more than a decade, fuelling investor concerns about its ability to bring down public debt of around 126% of output.

World Week Ahead: Deal or no deal for Greece?

Two deals might help extend last week's momentum on equity markets in the US and Europe -one that helps the US avoid its fiscal cliff and a second that would end the immediate threat of Greece defaulting on its debt.Optimism was fuelled on both fronts last week, though the timing for an agreement by US lawmakers on preventing automatic tax increases and spending cuts worth about US$607 billion set to kick in on January 1 remains more open-ended. Officials from the White House and Congress will resume negotiations this week.US President Barack Obama said on November 18 he was "confident" a new US budget deal would be reached. Meanwhile, EU commissioner Olli Rehn on Thursday said he saw no reason a deal on Greece could not be concluded tomorrow when euro-zone finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank meet again.Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras expressed confidence that the IMF would ease earlier deficit targets imposed on the debt-stricken nation, thus opening the door to the transfer of more funds."It's a done deal," Stournaras told reporters in Brussels on Friday after meeting with EU officials and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Bloomberg reported.Commitment to resolving budgetary and debt issues that risk hampering both US and European economies bolstered stocks last week.In the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week in the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3%, the Standard & Poor's 500 advanced 3.6% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 4%.In the past five days, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 4%. It is the first time the gauge has gained every day of the week since July 1, 2011, according to Bloomberg.The advance in European stock prices came even though EU leaders struggled to see eye to eye in talks about the next seven-year budget for the region and a two-day meeting late last week ended in failure.European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said they decided to abandon the special summit on the 2014-2020 EU budget, worth about 1 trillion euros, and would try to reach a compromise early next year, according to Reuters.On the US economic front in the days ahead, investors will eye the latest reports on durable goods orders and consumer confidence on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and personal income and outlays on Friday. The Federal Reserve's beige book is due on Wednesday.Also, three reports on the housing market might confirm the recent data indicating strength and optimism in this industry's pace of recovery.The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September, due Tuesday, is expected to show the eighth straight month of increases, while new home sales for October, due Wednesday, and October pending home sales data, due Thursday, are also expected to show a stronger housing market.The US Treasury is set to auction US$35 billion of two-year notes on Tuesday, US$35 billion of five-year securities Wednesday and US$29 billion of seven-year debt on Thursday.The first clues on how retailers fared on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, will also provide a helpful indicator on the state of the American consumer. The National Retail Federation predicts sales during the holiday season to increase 4.1% this year, down from last year's 5.6% growth.On Friday, Europe offered some surprisingly good economic news. The Ifo institute's business climate index unexpectedly rose, climbing to 101.4 in November from 100 in October, the first increase in eight months.That helped the euro finish what had already been a good week on an even more positive note, rising 1.8% against the greenback and climbing 3.2% against the Japanese yen in the past five days."Certainly sentiment towards euro has changed," Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, told Bloomberg News. The euro "rallied slightly again after we got German confidence numbers, which highlighted better-than-expected business sentiment."

International arbitration for tax disputes

The United States is undefeated in the nearly two years since it began settling corporate tax disputes with Canada through a winner-takes-all process popularly known as baseball arbitration.Tax lawyers and accountants in both countries said the US Internal Revenue Service had won three of the binding decisions and Canada none. They said the IRS had collected a significant sum of money, possibly in excess of $100m.Launched in December 2010, the arbitrations follow the rules for resolving salary disputes between Major League Baseball players and their teams. In the tax game, however, the companies forced to pay and the payments remain confidential. The United States has had similar agreements with France since 2004 and Belgium and Germany from 2006, but no cases involving them have gone to baseball arbitration, the tax experts said.Baseball arbitration plans are in pending tax treaties with Hungary, Luxembourg and Switzerland. Future treaties with the United Kingdom and Japan may have the same provisions, tax experts said.The arbitration process arises often in tax questions involving a multinational company's transfer pricing taxes, where two countries disagree over which of them should collect corporate taxes. The winning country gets the tax revenue. The loser goes home empty-handed. Companies like the baseball arbitration provision because it lends certainty to their tax bills. Companies can request that countries go to arbitration if revenue agents cannot settle their tax disputes in two years.Aiming too high?The arbitration panels are made up of three experts, one chosen by each country and the third by the other two experts. Revenue agents from each country submit a tax bill number to the panel. The panel picks the number it thinks is closest to the right answer. Tax experts on both sides said Canada had lost all three disputes because it was trying to hit home runs  seeking too much in taxes during arbitration."Canada has lost three in a row," said Dale Hill, a former manager of Canada's cross-border tax negotiations with the United States and a partner with Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP in Ottawa. "Maybe Canada has been more aggressive," Hill said.David Rosenbloom, a Washington, DC-based US tax lawyer at Caplin & Drysdale, said: "The Canadian Revenue Agency has developed over the years a habit of taking really extreme and unwarranted positions. It's almost as though they're unaware arbitration is in the treaty." Richard McAlonan, who directs the IRS negotiating program,his month that the agency had resolved a "handful" of the cases. He declined further comment. The Canadian Revenue Agency said in a statement that it prefers to resolve its tax disputes with the United States "at the negotiating table". Going to arbitration "would be the last resort", the CRA said. It declined to comment on the cases, citing confidentiality rules in the treaty. Canada's losses may mean its revenue agents will be more cautious in tax negotiations with the United States. The countries negotiate 75 to 100 cases a year, Hill said. "It's going to get tougher for Canada to negotiate," he said. Treaties pending The tax treaties with Hungary, Luxembourg and Switzerland passed the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 2011. But Republican Senator Rand Paul has so far prevented all three treaties from going before the full Senate.A spokesperson for Paul could not be reached for comment. Paul has previously objected to the treaties' provisions that require more sharing of US taxpayer information. New treaty arbitration provisions with Switzerland and the UK would especially benefit the pharmaceutical industry, while auto companies would appreciate the provision in a Japanese treaty, said Lorraine Eden, a professor at Texas A&M University.Companies in both sectors have a lot of transfer pricing tax uncertainty and can face double taxation if unable to force countries into binding arbitration, she said.UK-based GlaxoSmithKline reached a $3.4bn transfer pricing settlement with t he IRS in 2006. But the UK did not accept the US settlement, and Glaxo faced UK taxes on the same profits, Eden said."Would they like the opportunity to go to binding arbitration and settle this? Absolutely," Eden said.

NEWS,22.11.2012

Summit fatigue leads to bad decisions

The European Union may have won the Nobel Peace Prize this year, but to many EU leaders, officials, diplomats and even journalists, it can feel more like a torture chamber.Increasingly, Europe is governed at night by leaders in an advanced state of exhaustion, disregarding scientific evidence that this can lead to bad decisions, or non-decisions.Over the past three years, the EU has held 25 summits to try to tackle its debt crisis and related economic turmoil, with few of those meetings ending before 3 or 4 am, usually after 12 hours or more of near-fruitless negotiation. Add to that more than 40 finance ministers' meetings, the most recent of which ended at 5 am on Wednesday, again without agreement, and it is easy to see how a set of institutions designed to foster peace and stability in Europe can end up delivering frustration, angst and head-numbing pain."I'll put it this way: I woke up at 5 am or 5:30 am yesterday and we ended in the morning around 4 am," Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico complained after the last, largely unsuccessful summit in October. "This is how all of us operate, we adopt very serious decisions under pressure," he said, referring to the EU's increasingly weary heads of state and government. The EU's 27 leaders gathered for another summit on Thursday and Friday, this time to try to hammer out an agreement on around €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) of spending over the next seven years. It promises to be a bruising clash of national interests rather than the model of reconciliation and harmony commended by the Nobel committee, although it will still be "jaw, jaw" rather than "war, war". Gatherings to negotiate the long-term budget only happen every 6 or 7 years and are notorious for running over deadline and for being extremely hard-nosed and ill-tempered affairs. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair described his experience of it in 2005 as the most difficult negotiation he handled while in office, tougher even than the 1998 Northern Ireland peace talks that led to the Good Friday agreement. Already EU officials are warning that these budget talks could run into Saturday and Sunday, making it what is known in diplomatic circles as a "four-shirt" summit.Staff at the European Council in Brussels, where EU leaders meet, have been told to be ready to work into Saturday at least. British Prime Minister David Cameron has cleared his schedule for the entire weekend, a spokesperson said. French President Francois Hollande has done the same. Journalists, around 1 500 of whom are accredited to cover the meeting, took up residence in the vast glass and steel entrance hall on Thursday morning and will stay encamped there until a deal is done, or negotiations break down. The effect on the EU's public image among its 500 million citizens is unedifying."It's not exactly glamorous and some would say it's downright torture," said one EU diplomat, a veteran of at least 30 EU summits. "Everyone gets extremely fed up."Sweden has organised extra bedding for its diplomats to take a rest in their delegation room if necessary.Bad decision making? The larger issue, though, is whether the pressure-cooker atmosphere and endlessly drawn-out negotiating schedule is conducive to good decision-making.Everyone knows that drivers should take a rest after four or five hours at the wheel to avoid accidents. Shouldn't the leaders of nation states take the same precaution lest they take a bad decision that might run their country off the road?A study published by three academics in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States last year showed that a judge's willingness to grant parole can depend to a large extent on how tired he or she is and when they last ate.The study examined more than 1 000 parole decisions made by experienced judges over a 10-month period. It found that the more decisions judges have to make, the more difficult it becomes to stay consistent, they get decision fatigue."The theory determines that decision-making capacity is a limited resource, and when many decisions are made in sequence, the mental capacity diminishes," Professor Shai Danziger of Ben-Gurion University, one of the authors, said at the time.That could be a lesson for EU leaders and the political advisers, diplomats and hangers-on who have to help them make the right decisions time and again for days in a row.One experienced EU ambassador, a veteran of multiple foreign postings in high-pressure places, said a lesson could be drawn from how Israel handles Middle East talks.When the Oslo peace accords were being negotiated with the Palestinians in the mid-1990s, Israel would change its negotiating team every six hours or so to avoid fatigue and the risk of mistakes."No one can negotiate at full capacity for more than six hours at a time, you just can't concentrate that long," the ambassador said. "They wanted to make sure they had a fresh team that was at its sharpest."China has employed similar tactics in business and trade negotiations, officials say.By contrast, EU leaders will have at least 12 straight hours of negotiation on each of the next two days and more if the meeting drags on into the weekend.And if that isn't enough, there's another meeting of finance ministers starting on Monday evening.

Lessons of the Gaza War

Now that the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has begun to take effect (at least for now), it's time to begin to assess the outcome of the war, and where we go from here.

1. The big star and game changer is the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. Without it, there would have been many more Israeli casualties, and the Netanyahu government would undoubtedly have sent ground troops into Gaza. Look for the immediate hot topic in security circles to be anti-missile defense systems, and look for American aid to Israel to increase on this front. President Obama has already indicated his support.
2. Israel often has a hawkish reputation, but it is amazing that it has watched as Hamas and Hezbollah on its southern and northern borders gradually escalated missile capabilities. We Americans wouldn't have done that if some group developed much less of a capability on our Canadian or Mexican borders, let alone both. Look for Israeli hawks and doves to both argue that their analysis was correct, and recommend policies accordingly.
3. Hamas is a big winner. Even in the last hours of the conflict, it was still capable of attacking Israel. Look for an enhanced Hamas prestige among Palestinians and in the Arab world. More troubles for the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinian Authority.
4. But, at least in the short term, look for a longer term truce and the dramatic reduction of missiles from Gaza raining on Israel, and therefore a limit on Israeli retaliations. Look for both sides to declare victories; greater standing for Hamas, and enhanced deterrence for the Israelis.
5. The new Islamist Egyptian government performed well in becoming the main sponsor of the cease-fire agreement, but the Sinai -- the conduit for arms to Gaza -- has become more lethal than ever. Look for pressure to increase on Egypt to do something about Sinai, and for quiet discussions calling for the addition of western advisers to help to regain Cairo's control. Egypt's role in the cease-fire and its weakness in Sinai could and should actually enhance the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty if it is handled properly.
6. Iran is a big winner. It managed to provide the missiles to Hamas via Sudan and through the Sinai that had the greatest psychological impact on both Israelis and Arabs alike by seeming to threaten Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem.
7. At the same time, the confrontation with Iran becomes more complex, as there will be mixed interpretations of the meaning of the Gaza War. On the one hand, there will be less enthusiasm for an attack on its developing nuclear weapons program among the already wary Israeli public and a significant number of security specialists, reinforced by American and European caution. On the other hand, others will argue that the Hamas arsenal suggests that a nuclear Iran would be even more dangerous. Look for intensified disputes in the months to come about a possible attack on Iran, even tougher sanctions, and more pressure on President Obama to both try to reach a negotiated settlement on that front and to consider American action.
8. Similarly, as suggested in the cease-fire agreement, there will be alleviation of the already-diminished Israeli blockade of Gaza. Look for much greater flexibility on civilian goods entering Gaza and much more attention to the passage of Libyan and Iranian arms (through Sudan to Egypt) to Hamas.
9. The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas is a big loser. It will be more difficult than ever to bolster the Fatah leadership on the West Bank as Hamas grows in stature. The United States will be challenged to provide more economic aid and more diplomatic activity on the peace process. Look for much more attention to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process than at any time since mid-2011, when President Obama's initiative at the time quickly fizzled.
10. American efforts will be more complicated than ever because of the imminent Palestinian bid to become a non-member observer state at the UN. At least in the short term, membership will strengthen Abbas, but the missile war with Israel strengthens the possibility of Hamas leadership. The U.S. cannot afford Hamas, an ally of Iran, potentially representing Palestine at the UN, should Abbas weaken further. Look for the U.S. to try to square the circle by increasing its opposition to the Abbas UN initiative, and simultaneously attempting to strengthen Abbas through economic aid and the resumption of diplomacy on the peace process front. That might have the chance of some success if the conflict over the UN bid, now presumed to trigger diminished aid to Abbas, can somehow be resolved.

During the Gaza War, President Obama was traveling in Southeast Asia, as part of the administration's vaunted "pivot" to Asia. It's a good policy, but the Middle East followed him there. As the president contemplates new appointments in the foreign policy arena, he will have to consider that just as the U.S. necessarily begins to pay more attention to the Asian front, the conflicts and problems of the Middle East will stubbornly remain. We will be stuck with a very complex region we cannot ignore for a very long time to come.

NEWS,16.08.2012

Beyond Money

The hole was too deep; these words couldn't fill it. But there they remain, floating on the regret, vibrant with the possibility of a different kind of world. We've always been in the process of building that world, but the process has lacked a central cohesion... a god, if you will, to bless it and keep it. Antonis Perris, an unemployed musician from Athens, found himself at age 60 living in a world where the love of his community didn't matter and probably wasn't even noticeable: He had lost his means to earn a living. Until Europe's economic crisis hit, he had sustained himself and his elderly mother performing at local taverns. He had done well. Then business dried up. Finally, he reached a point where he saw no way to keep on living. The brief story of his death last May one more "economic suicide" was reported recently in the Post:” The next morning, Perris took the hand of his ailing 90-year-old mother. They climbed to the roof of their apartment building and leapt to their death."Europe has had thousands of economic suicides in the last few years. They always shock the community. In Greece, which has been reeling in economic crisis for five years now, "The suicide notes left in coat pockets or on desks," the Post writes, "... are being passed around on the Internet and studied like the final treatises of revered scholars."Everyone loved him," a local café owner said. People would have helped him out, and helped his mother, who suffered from Alzheimer's. But they didn't know how badly the two were doing. Now their deaths are a gash across the community, across the country and perhaps all of Europe and perhaps large parts of the so-called First World, where the middle class is crumbling. The poverty and despoliation the dark side of capitalism are no longer contained, relegated to the Third World and the Third World pockets of the First.The situation has gotten so bad that the idea of debt forgiveness is gaining mainstream cachet. Erik Kain, writing last October in Forbes, brought up "the old biblical idea of a jubilee  a national cancellation of private debts.” In many ways," he observed, "rather than creating a sustainable economy built around steadily rising middle and working class wages, we've built an unsustainable economy built on consumer debt. That debt has propelled the growth we've seen in recent years, acting as a sort of perpetual Keynesian injection into the economy. Now we're paying the price.” While I see debt forgiveness as a move in the right direction -- an acknowledgment that debt isn't simply a moral failing, and that the wealth of creditors, who have in so many ways rigged the game in their favor, isn't all the matters I wince at the provincialism of those who limit their concern to the American middle class, or would do no more to fix the system than increase wages for the working and professional classes. Better wages that are the result of devastated environmental regulations or that come at the expense of the Third World or future generations? The economic crisis is global in nature and the flaws of the system are deep and profound. "The economy's only valid purpose is to serve life," David Korten wrote this month in Yes! Magazine. The economy should not be an end in itself, an irresistible force that we fail to serve at our peril yet that's the conventional attitude. The economic suicides of Europe and, indeed, of every country on the planet, are testimony to the prevalence of this belief. We serve money as though it were God. When it disappears from our life, the most honourable alternative, as we stare into the abyss, is suicide. We live within an economic system that is cruel and impersonal, divorced from gratitude, empathy, compassion, love and nurturance. (Money, whatever else it is, is the root of all cynicism.) This system is also voracious. It's eating the planet: eating, i.e., privatizing and selling back to us, what was once the human and environmental commons, the context of all life. "Real capital assets," writes Korten in his excellent essay, "have productive value in their own right and cannot be created with a computer key stroke. The most essential forms of real capital are social capital (the bonds of trust and caring essential to healthy community function) and bio system capital (the living systems essential to Earth's capacity to support life). We are depleting both with reckless abandon.” Trapped within the present economic system, so many people have limited patience for what they value most deeply, e.g., the happiness and loving growth of children, the glorious fecundity of the earth, the peace that passes all understanding. Who has time? We all loved him, but...As the system crashes; we have the opportunity to look beyond it. Let's dig deeply to establish the foundation of its replacement. 

 

How One Disappearance Case May Prove China's Commitment to Rule of Law Post-Transition

 

A key question about the Chinese government's leadership transition later this year is whether as a rising power China can achieve internationally agreed-upon standards to respect and implement the rule of law for the benefit of its people. For all of the attention paid to the Bo Xilai scandal and circumstances involving government critics Ai Weiwei and Chen Guangcheng, one ongoing, largely unnoticed case may serve as a barometer for China's future in this area.Gendun Choekyi Nyima was just six years old in 1995 when he and members of his family were detained in Tibet and taken into "protective custody" by the Chinese government. Earlier that year the Dalai Lama declared the child to be the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama, the second-most influential leader in Tibetan Buddhism, following the death of the previous Panchen Lama in 1989.His whereabouts remain a closely guarded state secret. No reliable outside source knows where he is or what his condition is, apart from a few cryptic statements issued over the years by China's government, who most recently claimed Gendun Choekyi Nyima now 23 is in mainland China and doesn't want to be disturbed. "It's a reminder about how exceptionally efficient and capable the Chinese state is when it has a security priority, when it wants to hide someone away or keep something secret," said Robert Barnett, director of Columbia University's Modern Tibetan Studies program. The Panchen Lama, like the Dalai Lama, is a crucial figure to Tibetans, and plays a key role in identifying candidates to be the next Dalai Lama. Lobsang Nyandak Zayul, the Dalai Lama's representative for the Americas, expressed to me that the whereabouts and condition of Gendun Choekyi Nyima "are of great concern to the Tibetan people," whose right to interact with their spiritual leader has been taken away. Soon after detaining Gendun Choekyi Nyima and his family, China's government identified another Tibetan boy as the "official" Panchen Lama, whose rare and carefully managed public appearances to date have been punctuated with public statements supportive of China and state stability. Why did the Chinese government, which is officially atheist, get involved in a case of religious leadership succession? China views the Dalai Lama spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism and, until last year, head of Tibet's government in exile as a separatist threat. Less about religion, according to the Economist, "China has its eyes on a complex struggle that will play out" once the current aging Dalai Lama dies. "With the endorsement of its own Panchen Lama, China wants to choose a successor to the current Dalai Lama and seek to control him." Beijing is concerned that the Dalai Lama and his exile supporters will support another candidate perceived as Tibetans' spiritual leader. It’s a complicated story rooted in China's claims of historic sovereignty over Tibet. The implications are enormous, but the basic facts are simple: The Chinese government detained a six year-old and his family 17 years ago and nobody has seen them publicly since. By virtually any national or international standards this is illegal and morally outrageous. What does it say about the rule of law in China if people can be disappeared so easily? Meanwhile, circumstances for Tibetans worsen. Chinese authorities aggressively put down major riots in 2008, and in the last 18 months 45 Tibetans monks, nuns, and ordinary people have self-immolated in protest of China's harsh policies. Earlier this year China installed government monitors in nearly every monastery in Tibet in an effort to prevent separatist activities, and last month Human Rights Watch reported restrictions on news and information accessible by Tibetans inside China, to prevent views about the Dalai Lama and his followers not controlled by the Chinese government. According to Columbia's Barnett, "This is much deeper than just the issue of how to control the mechanics of appointing the next Dalai Lama," explaining that in attempting to establish stability in Tibet, on the one hand the "Communist Party recognizes that it can't win over Tibetans just by argument, ideology, or economic benefit. They believe they have to have a major traditional or religious leader as a puppet figure who will endorse their claims to the Tibetan people.” The greater political value for the Chinese government in having a quasi-official Panchen Lama is that he can be paraded around "not for Tibetan audiences but for Chinese audiences," Barnett said. The government, ever concerned with stability, "can use the army to control or suppress the six million or so Tibetans if they don't agree with China's choice for the Dalai Lama, but they can't use an army to force a billion Chinese to agree.” According to Michael Davis, visiting professor of law at Hong Kong University, China appears to believe "the Tibet problem will just go away if they grind down the Tibetans." But the unrest will continue because "Tibetans will continue to mobilize opposition to the Chinese policies and China will continue to bear foreign policy cost.” He added, "People figure if China treats its border Tibetan community like this, how will it treat other neighbours it dominates?” A spokesperson for China's United Nations mission in New York did not respond to repeated requests for comment, and calls to Beijing's embassy in Washington, D.C. went unanswered. While no one with whom I spoke had any information about the condition of Gendun Choekyi Nyima, it is possible the Chinese government may view him as a bargaining chip in stalled talks with Tibet's government in exile.” It would be extraordinary for China not to realize that they need to have that missing boy alive in order to get more concessions out of the exiles, if they ever go so far as to have serious talks," said Barnett. "But at the same time, they'll have to make some kind of compromise with the Tibetans' Panchen Lama, which would mean recognizing him in some secondary role.” What’s in it for China?” I think the upside is enormous," said Davis. The Dalai Lama, who has called for autonomy for Tibet but not independence from China, "is surely the most reasonable representative of the Tibetan community they are likely to encounter," he said. "They should take advantage of this while they can. The Dalai Lama is also peculiarly suited to gain popular Tibetan support for any settlement.” From the exiles' perspective, Lobsang Nyandak Zayul noted that "most of us have given up hope with the present administration in Beijing." Reengagement with the Chinese government may be possible "once they have established the next generation of leaders," he said. If Gendun Choekyi Nyima is alive and well, one of the following moves by China post-transition could send strong signals to its people, its neighbours, and to outside powers: Unconditionally release Gendun Choekyi Nyima, as the Dalai Lama's representatives have called for. Or at least allow a neutral party to actually meet with him and verify his well-being. The new leadership in China could seize an opening and signal a policy shift on talks with exiles, and quietly raise whether Gendun Choekyi Nyima could be released as a possibility in any talks. Of course, sustained media focus on the case could make China consider reputation impacts abroad. Broader factors involved in China's treatment of its peripheral communities unsettles China's neighbours, as well as powers like the United States and the EU, so the status quo seems to carry significant costs. If China is ready to assume its role as a major power on the world stage, with new political leadership it should accept the associated responsibilities -- including respect for the rule of law at home. China can start with credible information about Gendun Choekyi Nyima.

NEWS,15.08.2012

U.K. Recession Drives More Than 1,000 To Suicide: Study

 

A painful British economic recession, rising unemployment and biting austerity measures may have driven more than 1,000 people in England to commit suicide, according to a scientific study published on Wednesday.The study, a so-called time-trend analysis which compared the actual number of suicides with those expected if pre-recession trends had continued, reflects findings elsewhere in Europe where suicides are also on the rise."This is a grim reminder after the euphoria of the Olympics of the challenges we face and those that lie ahead," said David Stuckler, a sociologist at Cambridge University who co-led the study, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ).The analysis found that between 2008 and 2010 there were 846 more suicides among men in England than would have been expected if previous trends continued, and 155 more among women.Between 2000 and 2010 each annual 10 percent increase in the number of unemployed people was associated with a 1.4 percent increase in the number of male suicides, the study found.The analysis used data from the National Clinical and Health Outcomes Database and the Office of National Statistics.Keith Hawton, a professor at the Centre for Suicide Research at Oxford University who was not involved in the study, said its findings were "of considerable interest and certainly raise concerns", but that they must be interpreted carefully."It is also important that they are not over-dramatised in a way that might increase thoughts of suicide in those affected by the recession," he said in an emailed comment.Stuckler, who worked with researchers from Liverpool University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, stressed while this kind of statistical study could not establish a causal link, the power of the associations was strong. Its conclusions were strengthened by other indicators of rising mental health problems, stress and anxiety, he added.He also pointed out the study showed a small reduction in the number of suicides in 2010 which coincided with a slight recovery in male employment.A survey of 300 family doctors published by the Insight Research Group on Tuesday found that 76 percent of those questioned about the effects of the economic crisis said they thought it was making people unhealthier, leading to more anxiety, abortions and alcohol abuse.Data this month from the government's Health and Social Care Information Centre showed the number of prescriptions dispensed in England for antidepressants rose 9.1 percent in 2010.A study published last July, also by Stuckler, found that across Europe, suicide rates rose sharply from 2007 to 2009 as the financial crisis drove unemployment up and squeezed incomes.The countries worst hit by severe economic downturns, such as Greece and Ireland, saw the most dramatic increases in suicides.In Britain, there's little doubt times have been getting harder. The economy has shrunk for the last nine months and now produces 4.5 percent less than before the economic crisis.Many Britons have had the worst squeeze in living standards for 40 years and the crisis has hit young people hard, with youth unemployment soaring above 20 percent.Stuckler's BMJ study found that the number of unemployed men rose on average across Britain by 25.6 percent each year from 2008 to 2010, a rise associated with a yearly increase in male suicides of 3.6 percent."Much of men's identity and sense of purpose is tied up with having a job. It brings income, status, importance..." Stuckler said in a telephone interview."And there's also a pattern in the UK where men are three times more likely to commit suicide than women, while women are much more likely to report being depressed and seek help."Hawton noted that increases in suicides at times of economic recession had been reported before - for example in the Great Depression of the 1930s and in the economic downturn in South-east Asia during the 1990s.The World Health Organisation estimates that every year, almost a million people die from suicide - a rate of 16 per 100,000, or one every 40 seconds. It also estimates that for every suicide, there are up to 20 attempted ones.

HSBC gives US staff details for tax probe

Global bank HSBC has handed over details of current and former employees to the US authorities, it confirmed today, as part of a tax probe that almost sank rival bank UBS in 2009.As a result the bank could now face legal action from individuals whose details have been revealed, lawyers representing them said.In a letter to them seen by Reuters, the bank said it had passed on documents, in which their names appear, on the request of US authorities looking to hunt down US citizens with untaxed money held in Swiss accounts.After passing on a first set of documents earlier this year, HSBC has sent the new batch to the US Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission in an effort to reach a settlement over the investigation.HSBC lawyer Lenz & Staehelin has told lawyers acting for these employees that the documents included the minutes of executive, board and audit committee meetings, client visit reports, emails and other correspondence "We have submitted further information to the US authorities but it concerns the initial enquiry from December 2011. Client information has clearly not been submitted," HSBC Private Bank spokesman Medard Schoenmaeckers said by telephone.Banks including HSBC, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer have already passed on about 10,000 employee names in an attempt to avoid the fate of private bank Wegelin, which broke up in January under threat of indictment, bank employees and lawyers said.Credit Suisse said its cooperation with the US authorities was also in the interests of the bank and its employees. Baer declined to comment.Lawyer Douglas Hornung, who has filed a complaint against HSBC on behalf of its former chief legal counsel, said banks who handed employee names to US authorities infringed the criminal code and Swiss privacy laws.HSBC has avoided breaching strict Swiss banking secrecy laws by redacting from the documents any information that could lead to the identification of clients, said Lenz & Staehelin in a letter to lawyers acting for current and former employees of the bank.In 2009 the Swiss authorities reached a deal for UBS to pay a fine of $780 million to avert criminal charges, and ultimately agreed to allow the bank to reveal details of around 4,450 clients.Hornung said banks that hand over employee data to US officials are hoping to reduce the potentially huge fines they might face if they are found to have helped US clients avoid tax."HSBC could face a much higher fine than UBS, $1.3 to 1.4 billion would be logical. In cooperating HSBC can expect the fine to be lowered significantly," said Hornung.The benefit of such a reduction for cooperating would far outweigh anything the banks would have to pay for breaching obligations to employees in Switzerland, where the maximum fine is 5 million Swiss francs ($5.15 mln) and there are no punitive damages, Hornung said.A spokeswoman for the Swiss Attorney General confirmed that a legal complaint against HSBC had been received and said it was considering whether to open an investigation.A former HSBC employee, who asked not to be named, told Reuters he had never dealt with US clients and only realised US officials had his name during a background check when he was shortlisted for a new banking job.He was not offered the job."It can be difficult to inform former employees because as a company we don't keep records of their whereabouts. If they contact us, then we do inform them," Schoenmaeckers said.But Hornung, a partner at Geneva-based Hornung Avocats, said allegations of professional damage might be hard to prove."I have spoken to five or six people in the same situation, which means there is some chance of demonstrating a direct link between being on the list and difficulties in finding further employment," said Hornung.Bruno Seeman, a lawyer from small but locally renowned Zurich law firm Anwaltsbuero Landmann who is representing another former HSBC employee, said those wishing to sue the bank were unlikely to get any help from the largest law firms."The big five in Switzerland are all employed by the large banks, all the big commercial law firms with the capacity and know-how to act against big Swiss organisations cannot do so because it would be a conflict of interest," Seemann said."The effect is to prevent employees from approaching them because these law firms can't act against existing clients."

NEWS,15.04.2012.

Kim Jong Un's makes first public speech

 

Pyongyang - North Korea's new leader addressed his nation and the world for the first time on Sunday, vowing to place top priority on his impoverished nation's military, which promptly unveiled a new long-range missile.The speech was the culmination of two weeks of celebrations marking the centenary of the birth of his grandfather, national founder Kim Il Sung - festivities that were marred by a failed launch on Friday of a rocket that generated international condemnation and cost North Korea a food aid-for-nuclear-freeze deal with Washington.Kim Jong Un's speech took North Koreans gathered at Kim Il Sung Square and around televisions across the country by surprise. His father, late leader Kim Jong Il, addressed the public only once in his lifetime.Appearing calm and measured as he read the 20-minute speech, Kim Jong Un covered a wide range of topics, from foreign policy to the economy. His speech, and a military parade that followed, capped the carefully choreographed festivities commemorating Kim Il Sung's birthday.It was the best look yet the outside world has had of the young Kim, who is believed to be in his late 20s.Punctuating Kim's message that the North will continue to pour funds into its military, the parade culminated with the unveiling of a new long-range missile, though it's not clear how powerful or significant the addition to the North Korean arsenal it is. Some analysts suggested it might have been a dummy designed to dupe outside observers.Although the rocket launch on Friday was a huge, costly embarrassment for the new leadership, Kim's address was seen by analysts as an expression of confidence by the young leader and meant to show that he is firmly in control."Superiority in military technology is no longer monopolised by imperialists, and the era of enemies using atomic bombs to threaten and blackmail us is forever over," Kim said.His message suggested no significant changes in national policy - the "Military First" strategy has long been at the centre of North Korea's decision-making process.But there was strong symbolism in the images of the new leader addressing the country on state TV and then watching - and often laughing and gesturing in relaxed conversation with senior officials - as the cream of his nation's 1.2 million-strong military marched by.Outside analysts have raised worries about how Kim, who has been seen but not publicly heard since taking over after his father's December death, would govern a country that has a nuclear weapons programme and has previously threatened Seoul and Washington with war.At the celebration of Kim Il Sung, he appeared to clear his first hurdle.The speech was a good "first impression for his people and for the world," said Hajime Izumi, a North Korea expert at Japan's Shizuoka University. "He demonstrated that he can speak in public fairly well, and at this stage that in itself - more than what he actually said - is important. I think we might be seeing him speak in public more often, and show a different style than his father."Kim said he will strengthen North Korea's defences by placing the country's "first, second and third" priorities on military might. But he said he is open to working with foreign countries that do not have hostile policies toward his nation, and said he would strive to reunify Korea.He also stressed the importance of national unity, calling his country "Kim Il Sung's Korea" rather than North Korea."That suggests to me that they want to let the country, and the world, know that this is a 'new' country," said Han S Park, a University of Georgia professor who works frequently with top US and North Korean officials, after watching the events in Pyongyang.Despite his youth, Kim has been groomed since his teens to step into this role, Park said, citing conversations with North Koreans with knowledge of the leader's personal history.Cha Myong Hui, a journalist with the government-run Minju Joson newspaper, said she was struck by how much he resembles his father and grandfather."I can tell you every person in my country cried when they heard his voice," she said.The young leader said he will aggressively pursue economic growth to improve people's daily lives. North Korea has suffered decades of economic hardship following a famine in the mid-1990s and the loss of aid from the Soviet Union. Kim Jong Un's formal three-year succession has coincided with a push to improve the economy by employing modern technology.Kim made no direct mention of the rocket failure. But North Korea's state media made an extraordinary announcement hours after the launch, saying that the attempt to send a satellite into space had flopped. It still claims past launches succeeded, which international experts deny.Concerns remain high that North Korea may now feel itself under pressure to make up for the botched rocket launch with a nuclear test - as it did in 2006 and 2009.The finale in Sunday's military parade added to the worries over North Korea's military. But analysts in Japan and South Korea said further examination is needed to determine whether it's a new intercontinental ballistic missile that North Korea reportedly has been building.Narushige Michishita, a North Korea military expert at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the missile appeared to be new, but strongly resembled the rocket used on Friday and also the long-range Taepodong-2, which North Korea first launched, unsuccessfully, in 2006.He said it probably has three stages but did not appear to be big enough to have the 15 000km range needed to effectively attack the United States, which would be the goal of an ICBM for the North."I don't think this is a serious ICBM," Michishita said. "Putting it on display has a psychological impact, and that would have been greater if Friday's launch had worked. But North Korea has a very bad record with long-range missiles. It think this is more a propaganda ploy than a military advance."

Ex-dictator admits 'disappearances'

 

Buenos Aires - Former Argentine dictator Jorge Videla admitted for the first time in a new book that "7 000 or 8 000 people" disappeared under his regime between 1976 and 1981.Caferino Reato, author of the book called Final Disposition, says Videla admitted the disappearances during 20 hours of interviews in the federal military prison where he is held."Let's say there were 7 000 or 8 000 people who had to die to win the war against subversion," the book quotes Videla as saying.Sentenced to life in prison for crimes against humanity, the former dictator, 86, also admitted he decided on "the disappearance of the bodies to avoid provoking protests inside and outside the country," according to the book by Reato, who is a journalist and political scientist."Each disappearance must certainly be understood as a way to hide, to conceal a death," Videla is quoted as saying in excerpts published on the website of publisher Random House Mondadori.Videla was the first president of the last Argentine dictatorship, which ran from 1976 to 1983.He said insurgents compelled him to take action that ended in their disappearances and deaths."There was no other alternative," Videla said. Military leaders "were in agreement that it was the price that must be paid to win the war against subversion and we needed that it not be obvious so society would not realise it. It was necessary to eliminate a large group of people who could not be brought to justice nor shot either," he said.The author drew the name of the book, Final Disposition, from a comment made by Videla."Final Disposition" was the phrase used. They are two very military words and they mean to take something out of service that is useless. When, for example, you're talking about a piece of clothing that you no longer use or is no good because it's worn out, it goes to final disposition."The former general said that two months before the 24 March 24 1976 coup, military leaders began drawing up lists of people they thought should be arrested immediately after the overthrow of Isabel Peron, who was president from 1974 to 1976."There are no lists with the fate of the disappeared," Videla said. "There might be partial lists, but they're messy."He added that "from a strictly military point of view, we did not need the coup. It was a mistake."Humanitarian organisations estimate that about 30 000 people disappeared during the dictatorship, most of them in about 600 clandestine detention centres.The Argentine government continues to prosecute some of the accused human rights violators of the military dictatorship. There were 84 new convictions in 2011 and 843 more trials are pending.

NEWS,15.3.2012

China removes top leadership contender Bo from post

 

 

Ambitious Chinese Communist Party leadership contender Bo Xilai has been toppled from his post as head of the inland city of Chongqing, in a move risking a backlash from backers of his controversial vision of socialist growth. His abrupt downfall, announced on Thursday by the official Xinhua news agency, exposes ideological divisions as a new generation prepares to take power in China later this year, and may stir tensions between supporters of his more traditional, state-dominated version of socialism, and liberal critics, who saw him as a dangerous opportunist. Bo was removed as party boss of Chongqing, a sprawling region in the southwest that he turned into a bastion of Communist revolutionary-inspired "red" culture and egalitarian growth, a day after being rebuked by Premier Wen Jiabao in a news conference broadcast live across the country. The telegenic Bo had been a contender for top leadership, but his prospects suffered a blow after Vice Mayor Wang Lijun, previously his long time police chief, went to ground in February in the U.S. consulate in nearby Chengdu until he was coaxed out and placed under investigation.Xinhua said Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang will replace Bo, but gave no further details. It also said Wang had been removed from his vice mayor post. When announcing Bo's dismissing, the head of the party's powerful organisational department, Li Yuanchao, said the move was made "in light of the serious political repercussions of the Wang Lijun incident," according to Chinese news reports that cited a Chongqing television report. Vice Mayor Wang had earlier been a key figure in a drive against organised crime that garnered Bo nationwide attention. While Bo might be kept on in some role until the Communist Party leadership succession this autumn, his hopes for promotion to a top job were finished, said Chen Ziming, an independent scholar in Beijing who follows party politics.” Now it looks like Wen Jiabao's comments yesterday represented the leadership's collective view that Bo needed to go," said Chen, referring to the premier's pointed rebuke of Bo."This will affect the leadership politics for the 18th Congress, because this opens up new uncertainties about who is in contention," said Chen.The 18th Party Congress late this year will see China's biggest leadership transition in nearly a decade, with Party Chief Hu Jintao and other elders due to retire and hand power to a younger generation headed by Vice President Xi Jinping.Unlike Bo, Xi has shied away from the limelight. Both are "princelings", the term for children of current, retired or late revolutionary leaders."The fact that the Xinhua announcement did not stress that Bo will be placed in another post means that he's probably going to be put under investigation, and there won't be any conclusion on his future until the end of that," said one source, a journalist with extensive contacts among central and Chongqing officials. He spoke on condition of anonymity to protect himself and his contacts.Bo's fall from a confident defence of his policies at a news conference last week to dismissal this week has come while central authorities push forward with an investigation into Wang's flight to the U.S. mission.Bo has plenty of fans, attracted to the idea of a "Chongqing model" of development that promises greater equality. Some were riled by his sudden departure."The removal of Bo Xilai is a real shock to me. We don't know whether it's because of his personal errors or is an attack on the Chongqing model," said Sima Nan, a leftist writer and broadcaster in Beijing who has praised Bo."If this amounts to a negation of the Chongqing model, then I can't agree with this decision."Wen added to the cloud hanging over Bo on Wednesday by scolding Chongqing for the scandal and obliquely warning against nostalgia for the Mao Zedong era."Well, the good news, I guess, is that the risks of leftism and extremism in Chinese politics have just taken a nose dive," said David Zweig, a scholar of Chinese politics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology."I guess nobody really knew what he believed in, except self-promotion, and now the self-promotion has done him in, which is good," said Zweig.Bo's removal quickly became one of the most talked about topics on China's Twitter-like microblogging site Weibo, with the normal censorship of discussion on top leaders strangely absent. Many people expressed support for Bo."With the anti-mafia heroes Bo and Wang both gone, what are we going to do now?" wrote Jin Zhiheng.The man who takes in Chongqing, Vice Premier Zhang, studied economics in North Korea and is a former party boss in the export-dependent southern province of Guangdong. Unusually, he retains his vice premiership despite his new position.Xinhua did not mention whether Bo could lose his seat in the Politburo, a central decision-making body that sits under the more powerful Standing Committee. The Politburo itself would have to make that decision.The mayor of Chongqing, Huang Qifan, widely seen as the brains behind the city's elaborate growth plans, appeared to survive the fall of Bo, at least for now.Huang said he would "resolutely support the handling of the Wang Lijun incident, and the adjustment of the municipal leadership," the news reports said, citing the Chongqing television broadcast.