NEWS,01.06.2013

Turkey Protests: Erdogan Calls For Immediate End To Demonstrations As Clashes Flare

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan made a defiant call for an end to the fiercest anti-government demonstrations in years on Saturday, as thousands of protesters clashed with riot police in Istanbul and Ankara for a second day.

The unrest was triggered by government plans for a replica Ottoman-era barracks housing shops or apartments in Istanbul's Taksim Square, long a venue for political protest, but has widened into a broader show of defiance against Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Police fired teargas and water cannon down a major shopping street as crowds of protesters chanting "shoulder to shoulder against fascism" and "government resign" marched towards Taksim, where hundreds were injured in clashes on Friday.

A police helicopter buzzed overhead as groups of mostly young men and women, bandanas or surgical masks tied around their mouths, used Facebook and Twitter on mobile phones to try to organise and regroup in side streets.

"If this is about holding meetings, if this is a social movement, where they gather 20, I will get up and gather 200,000 people. Where they gather 100,000, I will bring together one million from my party," Erdogan said in a televised speech.

"Every four years we hold elections and this nation makes its choice ... Those who have a problem with government's policies can express their opinions within the framework of law and democracy," he said.

Police later pulled back from Gezi Park in Taksim, where the demonstration started peacefully on Monday with people pitching tents in protest at trees being torn up for the redevelopment.

Waiters scurried out of luxury hotels lining the square, on what should be a busy weekend for tourists in one of the world's most visited cities, ferrying lemons to protesters, who squirted the juice in their eyes to mitigate the effects of tear gas.

"People from different backgrounds are coming together. This has become a protest against the government, against Erdogan taking decisions like a king," said Oral Goktas, a 31-year old architect among a peaceful crowd walking towards Taksim.


MODERN-DAY SULTAN

Stone-throwing protesters also clashed with police in the Kizilay district of central Ankara as a helicopter fired tear gas into the crowds. Riot police with electric shock batons chased demonstrators into side streets and shops.

Protests also broke out in the Aegean coastal city of Izmir late on Friday.

Erdogan said the redevelopment of Gezi Park was being used as an excuse for the unrest and warned the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which had been given permission to hold a rally in Istanbul, against stoking tensions.

But the protests included a broad spectrum of people opposed to Erdogan and were not organised by any political party.

CHP officials called on its members not to take party flags with them to the protests, apparently concerned they would be held responsible for the violence, and party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan of behaving like a dictator.

"Tens of thousands are saying no, they are opposing the dictator ... The fact that you are the ruling party doesn't mean you can do whatever you want," he said.

Erdogan has overseen a transformation in Turkey during his decade in power, turning its once crisis-prone economy into the fastest-growing in Europe.

He remains by far the country's most popular politician, but critics point to what they see as his authoritarianism and the religiously conservative government's meddling in private life in the secular republic, accusing him of behaving like a modern-day sultan.

Tighter restrictions on alcohol sales and warnings against public displays of affection in recent weeks have also led to protests. Concern that government policy is allowing Turkey to be dragged into the conflict in neighbouring Syria by the West has also sparked peaceful demonstrations.


REASONABLE FORCE

Residents hung out of windows and balconies banging pots and pans in support of the protesters in the streets below.

Medics said around 1,000 people had been injured in the clashes in Istanbul. At least four lost their eyesight after being hit by gas canisters, while four more were being treated for fractured skulls, the Turkish Doctors' Association said.

The U.S. State Department said it was concerned by the number of injuries while Amnesty International and the European parliament raised concern about excessive use of police force.

Erdogan acknowledged mistakes had been made in the use of tear gas and said the government was investigating, but said the police reserved the right to use reasonable force and vowed that the redevelopment plans for Taksim would go ahead.

"Taksim Square can't be a place where extremist groups hang around," Erdogan said of a location which has long been a venue for mass demonstrations.

First-Ever Study of Global Economic Inequality: Richest 8% Earn 50% of Earth's Incomes

The lead research economist at the World Bank, Branko Milanovic, will be reporting soon, in the journal Global Policy, the first calculation of global income-inequality, and he has found that the top 8% of global earners are drawing 50% of all of this planet's income. He notes: "Global inequality is much greater than inequality within any individual country," because the stark inequality between countries adds to the inequality within any one of them, and because most people live in extremely poor countries, largely the nations within three thousand miles of the Equator, where it's already too hot, even without the global warming that scientists say will heat the world much more from now on.
For example, the World Bank's list of "GDP per capita (current US$)" shows that in 2011 this annual-income figure ranged from $231 in Democratic Republic of Congo at the Equator, to $171,465 in Monaco within Europe. The second-poorest and second-richest countries respectively were $271 in Burundi at the Equator, and $114,232 in Luxembourg within Europe. For comparisons, the U.S. was $48,112, and China was $5,445. Those few examples indicate how widely per-capita income ranges between nations, and how more heat means more poverty.
Wealth-inequality is always far higher than income-inequality, and therefore a reasonable estimate of personal wealth throughout the world would probably be somewhere on the order of the wealthiest 1% of people owning roughly half of all personal assets. These individuals might be considered the current aristocracy, insofar as their economic clout is about equal to that of all of the remaining 99% of the world's population.
Milanovich says: "Among the global top 1 per cent, we find the richest 12 per cent of Americans, ... and between 3 and 6 per cent of the richest Britons, Japanese, Germans and French. It is a 'club' that is still overwhelmingly composed of the 'old rich'," who pass on to their children (tax-free in the many countries that have no estate-taxes) the fortunes that they have accumulated, and who help set them up in businesses of their own - often after having sent them first to the most prestigious universities (many in the United States), where those children meet and make friends of others who are similarly situated as themselves.
For example, on 22 April 2004, The New York Times headlined "As Wealthy Fill Top Colleges, Concerns Grow Over Fairness," and reported that 55% of freshman students at the nation's 250 most selective colleges and universities came from parents in the top 25% of this nation's income. Only 12% of students had parents in the bottom 25% of income. Even at an elite public, state, college, the University of Michigan, "more members of this year's freshman class ... have parents making at least $200,000 a year [then America's top 2%] than have parents making less than the national median of about $53,000 [America's bottom 50%].'"
Most of the redistribution that favors more than just the top 1% has occurred in the "developing" countries, such as China. However, a larger proportion of the world's population live in nations of Central and South America, Africa, etc., where today's leading families tend overwhelmingly to be the same as in the previous generation. They, too, near the Equator, are members of the "club," but there are fewer of them.
Milanovic finds that globally, "The top 1 per cent has seen its real income rise by more than 60 per cent over those two decades [1988-2008]," while "the poorest 5 per cent" have received incomes which "have remained the same" - the desperately poor are simply remaining desperately poor. Maybe there's too much heat where they live.
This study, in Global Policy, to be titled "Global Income Inequality in Numbers: In History and Now," reports that economic developments of the past twenty years have caused "the top 1 per cent to pull ahead of the other rich and to reaffirm in fact - and even more so in public perception - its preponderant role as a winner of globalization."

Europe: A Leaning Tower of Babel

The eurozone today has become a leaning Tower of Babel. The sovereign debt crisis and the high social costs of austerity have severely weakened its foundation. Whether this tottering edifice designed to thread diversity through the needle eye of a single currency finally collapses and falls, or is able to right itself, will depend on re-founding a European narrative for the 21st century.
The project of European unity was born out of the fear of war, which devastated the continent twice in the 20th century, and the promise of prosperity. Precisely because of the last few decades of step-by-step integration, war is no longer a danger -- and thus has lost its force as the compelling raison d'etre of unity. On the other hand, if, as the current situation suggests, integration means more pain than gain, the "lost generation" of youth facing a jobless future can be forgiven for asking, "why Europe?"
At the recent town hall meeting organized in Paris by the Berggruen Institute, French President Francois Hollande called for a "new narrative" for Europe that would appeal to the "post-crisis" generation of today as the "post-war" narrative appealed to the generation that founded the European Union. Jacques Attali, the former top aide to Francois Mitterrand and mentor to Hollande, told the students of Sciences Po, where the town hall meeting was held: "Young people today are faced with three options if the current eurocrisis is not resolved -- leaving Europe, staying in Europe without hope or going into politics and starting a revolution."
As Attali's comment suggests, the despair of youth today is destroying their faith in the promise of Europe, as we see with the success of the left-populist blogger-comedian Beppe Grillo in Italy. Right-wing movements across Europe from the True Finns to the neo-fascist Golden Dawn in Greece yearn for the days before globalization, Muslim immigration, gay marriage and the Growth and Stability Pact.
The great danger is that the despair and alienation over the failure of Europe to deliver a future for its next generation will conjoin with the backward-looking, reactionary right in one great anti-European eruption. That would finally bring the historical project of European integration crashing to the ground.
In this context, pro-Europeans need to heed a truth of the human condition that Charles de Gaulle fully understood: Identity is rooted in the nation that is, belonging to a unique way of life; what Johann Gottfried Herder called "volksgeist." Papering over this truth with a currency managed (or mismanaged) by distant bureaucrats with functional acronyms in Brussels only suppressed this reality, not diminished it.
Unless de Gaulle's "certain idea of France" and its equivalent in other nations is replaced with an "a certain idea of Europe," the whole thing will shatter into shards of a once-vibrant dream.
The challenge for pro-Europeans is not to dismiss national sentiment, but seek to forge a common identity that leaves plenty of room for diversity while delivering opportunity and security through a strong but limited European government.
At the Berggruen Institute meeting in Paris, students from Sciences Po, the London School of Economics and the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin proposed a narrative for their post-crisis generation founded in "freedom and solidarity." The European identity for their generation, they argued, would be bound up with the founding idea of European civilization -- the universality of reason and the free individual combined with a social model that doesn't let fellow citizens fall into the cracks as Europe faces the competitive winds of globalization.
It remains to be seen if such a narrative is convincing. Many fear that the 2014 European Parliament elections will become a platform that will give full voice to the nationalist and populist anti-European backlash. Perhaps such an eventuality ought to be welcomed, not feared, because it would force a strong redefinition of the pro-European identity in the face of an existential challenge.
When al-Qaeda took down the Twin Towers in New York in 2001, Samuel Huntington, the Harvard theorist who wrote "The Clash of Civilizations," argued that the attacks had "given back to the West its common identity." The same dynamic will take place if the European idea is thoroughly challenged in 2014.
Whether or not "a certain idea of Europe" triumphs, however, will be determined by how quickly and effectively the present European leaders and institutions stem the current crisis. The announcement in Paris of a concerted "offensive" against youth unemployment by the French, German, Spanish and Italian governments is a propitious start.
What matters now is whether they will deliver hope through concrete action instead of more empty promises between now and the 2014 election. The fate of Europe is in their hands.

 

Facing the Climate Crisis

On May 9th, NOAA reported a significant milestone: CO2 emissions had crossed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level not seen for three million years. Although this figure has since been revised to 399.89 ppm, even this lower number paints a grim picture. Heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase 50 percent by 2050, primarily due to a 70 percent growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. Average global temperature is expected to rise by 3-6 °C by the end of the century, exceeding the internationally agreed upon goal of limiting it to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The Global Warming Potential of methane, the second most prevalent greenhouse gas after CO2, is expected to be more than 50 times greater than that of carbon dioxide over the next 20 years. The primary source of methane is industrial animal agriculture, which supports global meat consumption. Meat production has tripled during the last 40 years, up by 20 percent in the last decade alone.
Scientists warn that if current patterns of energy use continue, planetary biophysical systems could be destabilized, triggering "abrupt or irreversible environmental changes that would be deleterious or even catastrophic for human well-being." Yet even as the climate crisis intensifies, minimal efforts to address climate change through the Kyoto Protocol the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have been derailed by international economic competition. The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009 failed to extract a binding agreement to limit emissions of greenhouse gases from even a single country. The 117 countries that endorsed the target of 350 ppm were the poorest and most vulnerable countries, not rapidly industrializing countries like India and China or the "rich, powerful, and deeply fossil-fuel addicted" countries of the Global North. Developing countries want these industrial juggernauts to take the lead in sharply reducing emissions. Conversely, fearing the erosion of their competitive advantage, developed countries are retreating from earlier targets and obligations. The United States has never been a member to the Kyoto Protocol. Canada, Japan, and Russia will not take part in the second commitment period of the Protocol starting in 2013. Australia and New Zealand also remain uncommitted.
About 80 percent of the world's environmental damage is attributed to the wealthiest 20 percent of the world's population the "overconsumers" of the industrialized North, whose lives are "organized around [individually owned] cars, meat-based diets, use of packaged and disposable products." At the bottom is the poorest 20 percent, who live predominantly in the Global South in "absolute deprivation," travelling mostly by foot, eating nutritionally poor diets, drinking contaminated water, using local biomass, and producing negligible wastes. The overconsumption of the top rung and the under consumption of the bottom are both unsustainable. The middle rung, the 60 percent also living mostly in the Global South -- who travel mostly by bicycle and public surface transportation, eat healthy diets of grains, vegetables and some meat, use unpackaged goods, and recycle wastes -- represent a balanced middle that should become the global norm. Unfortunately, however, more and more countries are adopting the Western model of development and its accordant hyperconsumerism.
Renewable, clean sources of energy and solar, wind, and biomass technologies must become the means for economic growth. The average person in the developed world must "cut meat consumption in half by the year 2050" to meet the emissions reduction targets set by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Political will is necessary to effect such sweeping changes in production and consumption. However, as Dr. James Hansen, the NASA scientist who is leading the effort to reverse climate change states, "greenwash" is a "near universal response of politicians to the climate change issue." As he goes on to point out, energy lobbyists in Washington receive handsome payouts from energy companies.
At the crux of the problem is the dualism of self and other. Ultimately, all of us, self-absorbed individuals pursuing narrow self-interest over environmental sustainability and human well-being are accountable for the climate crisis to varying degrees. If we are seriously concerned about planetary survival, and thus human survival, we need to reflect more deeply on our uncritical internalization of dominant values and worldview.
Although current environmental and social collapse are attributable largely to the excesses of modern technology and economic growth, the roots of these crises go all the way back to the pre-capitalist era and the psychological and social evolution of hierarchy and domination. Over the course of history, a way of viewing reality and guiding social action defined by human domination of nature and each other has intensified; in fact, it is now being realized on a global scale. Sustainability and well-being require a shift from the prevailing system of domination and extremism to a global consciousness and a socioeconomic system based on interdependence and partnership. Adoption of appropriate technology, rational allocation of resources, and balanced and equitable consumption require a partnership ethic based on cultivating the values of moderation, tolerance, nonviolence, and compassion.

NEWS,27.11.2012

OECD: Eurozone crisis to hamper recovery

The OECD cut growth forecasts for most countries in the European Union's eastern wing on Tuesday and urged Hungary to do a deal with international lenders even as most analysts give such a deal less than even odds of happening.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said the euro zone crisis and austerity drives by emerging Europe's governments would sap recovery in most of the region.In a regular report, the group said the economies of Poland, Slovakia, and Estonia would grow both this year and next.It said inflationary pressure implied monetary easing was on the cards for Poland, but interest rate cuts in Hungary could destabilise price stability and undermine policy credibility.

Hungary

The OECD said closing an aid deal with the European Union and IMF was "critical to growth" because it would lower Budapest's borrowing costs, improve investor confidence and boost domestic lending.Under the assumption that a deal will materialise, the organisation forecast economic contractions of 1.6% this year and 0.1% in 2013.In May, the OECD forecast shrinkage of 1.5% for 2012 and growth of 1.1% next year. Analysts give only a 30% chance that Prime Minister Viktor Orban will sign a deal.The OECD said the fiscal deficit would narrow from 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 2.7% in 2013 and 2014.It said recent interest rate cuts by the central bank risked upsetting price stability and undermining policy credibility, and it added that rate setters should ease monetary policy only once inflation fell back below the bank's 3% target."Failure to conclude a financial agreement with the multilateral organisations could undermine already weak confidence, endanger fiscal sustainability and destabilise the exchange rate," the OECD said.

Poland

The weak European economy and fiscal consolidation will hit Poland, according to the OECD, which cut its growth forecast for the region's biggest economy to 2.5% this year, from 2.9% in May. It saw growth of 1.6% in 2013.It said headline inflation would fall to the lower end of the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target band. Along with the slowdown in growth, that implies that rate setters should ease policy to support the economy, the OECD said.The fiscal deficit should fall to 3.5% of gross domestic product  in line with the government's target  before falling to 2.9% next year.The organisation also said the government should push on reforms to sell state owned assets, improve the tax structure, reduce red tape for businesses, end special pension schemes and reform farmers' health and pension systems to boost growth.

Czech Republic

The OECD deepened its forecast for a Czech economic contraction to 0.9%, from an estimate of 0.5% in May. It sees a recovery emerging in 2013 with 0.8% growth, expanding to 2.4% in 2014.The organisation said the public finance deficit should stagnate at 3.3% of gross domestic product this year and next, above the European Union's 3% ceiling.It will fall to 2.7% of GDP in 2014, it said, because of structural improvements in the budget and stronger growth.

Estonia

Estonia should lead EU OECD countries with growth of 3.1% in 2012, the OECD said, raising its forecast from 2.2% in May. That should accelerate to 3.7% next year.The country's public finances should fall into a deficit of 1 percent of GDP this year, but then creep closer to a balanced result over the next two years.

Slovakia

The OECD sees Slovakia's car-export-driven economy expanding by 2.6% this year, unchanged from a May forecast. It said a weak labour market and fiscal retrenchment would squeeze growth to just 2% in 2013, down from an earlier estimate of 3%. The following year, however, growth should pick up to 3.4%, the OECD said.

Slovenia

Austerity measures and deleveraging by foreign-owned banks and companies will hit Slovenia's economy next year, the OECD said, predicting a contraction of 2.1%. It saw the fiscal deficit hitting 4.3% of GDP in 2012 and falling to the EU's 3% ceiling only by 2014.

Israel

The OECD said growth should slow from 3.1% this year to 2.9% in 2014, while an acceleration in price growth that should begin in the second quarter of next year would require monetary tightening.It added that the government's deficit targets of 3% and 2.75% for 2013 and 2014 would be hard to hit, and instead forecast shortfalls of 4.1% and 4%.

 

OECD warns of downward spiral in Portugal

Portugal's economy will contract twice as much as previously expected in 2013 and the bailed-out country risks falling into a fiscal and financial downward spiral, the OECD said on Tuesday.The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development also warned in its economic outlook that further budget tightening will "likely" be needed to meet deficit targets set out under the €78bn EU/IMF bailout.The OECD now forecasts a 1.8% contraction in 2013, more than the 0.9% it forecast in July and far more than the -1% predicted by the Portuguese government."If the demand effects of the required fiscal retrenchment turn out higher than expected, this could lead the economy into a downward spiral of worsening economic, financial and fiscal conditions," the OECD wrote.It said Portugal will only return to growth late next year as export growth eventually offsets weak domestic demand.The economy contracted 1.7% last year and is expected to fall 3.1% in 2012, marking debt-burdened Portugal's worst recession since returning to democracy in 1974.Lisbon has slashed spending and raised taxes since it received the bailout last year but economists have warned of a recessive spiral which could mean the country needs more aid.The Portuguese face the biggest tax hikes in their modern history in 2013, which the OECD said could drag on growth and private consumption, which it forecast would fall by 3.5% next year, more than the 2.2% the government estimates."Compliance with the headline deficit targets of 4.5% and 2.5% of GDP for 2013 and 2014, respectively, are likely to require additional consolidation measures due to the weak economy," the OECD wrote.Record unemployment will also rise further, it said.Besides updating its macroeconomic scenario, the OECD said deleveraging of Portugal's financial sector was inevitable but that it should work to prevent credit from contracting too fast."The economy will remain sensitive to a further deterioration in credit conditions and worsening conditions in other euro area economies," it said.

 

Parking spots become latest investment

Ivestors looking for new places to park their cash in Hong Kong are driving up prices for parking spaces, sparking fears of a bubble in the Asian financial center.Prices for parking spots in Hong Kong are nearing historic highs, the side effect of government curbs to cool the housing market amid worries of overheating following the latest round of monetary stimulus in the US two months ago.There are "a lot of speculators in the market, especially for car parks," said Buggle Lau, senior analyst with Midland Realty. A bubble is "definitely forming."Over the weekend, a developer sold about 500 parking spots at a new suburban apartment complex at prices up to 1.3 million Hong Kong dollars ($167 000) per space.In a commercial building near the city's financial district on Hong Kong Island, an investor has put 34 parking spaces on sale for HK$100m ($12.9m), according to a report last week in the Ming Pao newspaper. A parking spot in the exclusive Repulse Bay neighborhood sold for HK$3m, the paper also said, citing Land Registry data.On Thursday, a single parking spot in a building in the popular Mid-Levels residential neighborhood will be auctioned off with the opening bid at HK$680 000.Second-hand parking spaces changed hands in the third quarter for an average of HK$640 000. That's up 16.4% over the year before, according to research by property company Centaline. It's also not far off the record HK$660 000 in the fourth quarter of 1997, shortly before the city's property market collapsed.The rising prices are a side-effect of recent measures to cool Hong Kong's housing prices, which have doubled since the end of 2009 and are among the highest in the world.Hong Kong's government has introduced three separate sets of curbs on property purchases since the summer in a bid to cool the market. US policymakers' continuing efforts to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates at an ultralow level and buying tens of billions in bonds each month has raised concerns in Hong Kong about money flooding into the southern Chinese city, pushing asset prices higher as investors chase profits in the property market.The latest curbs don't cover nonresidential properties such as parking spots so investors have been piling in as they look for higher returns. Hong Kong had the world's third-highest monthly parking charges last year, according to real estate company Colliers International."In some car parks, especially in urban areas where supply is limited, the sales price of some car parks can be as high as two to three million (Hong Kong) dollars" each, said Lau of Midland Realty.Nearly 8 400 parking spaces worth HK$5.6bn changed hands in the first 10 months of this year, compared to 8 300 such transactions worth HK$5.4bn for all of 2011, according to Land Registry data compiled by Midland.Some of that increase comes from developers like Cheung Kong Holdings, Sun Hung Kai Properties and Chinachem Group selling off parking spaces at their apartment complexes. It's a break from the usual practice of renting them out to residents, and is a sign that the developers realize it's a "pretty good time" to sell because of the prices they can get, Lau said.Because Hong Kong's currency is pegged to the US dollar, policymakers cannot take conventional measures to cool property prices like raising interest rates.So the government tightened restrictions on property purchases, including bringing in a new stamp duty on foreign buyers. But parking spots and other non-residential property are exempt."The latest overseas buyers' stamp duty will just put some fuel onto that fire, and is making the whole parking space investment market go out of control," said Josh Wong, whose Hong Kong City Parking owns about 200 parking spots at eight lots around Hong Kong.Many investors who buy spaces rent them out to car owners. Wong said he typically looks for an annual yield, or return, of 5% to 6%, but because prices have risen, yields have been falling to about 4% to 5%. He said has even heard of investors making as little as 1.8% on their investment.Wong, who also runs Parkinghk.com, a website for buyers and sellers of parking spots, said the market was heating up because investors didn't need a lot of money to get started."One million Hong Kong dollars ($129 000) cannot buy anything in Hong Kong. You cannot buy a shop, you cannot buy anything except car parking and that would help the car park investment go even more crazy," he said.

 

French unemployment hits 14-year high

The number of people out of work in France soared again in October to hit its highest level in 14 and a half years, piling pressure on Socialist President Francois Hollande who has promised to halt the relentless rise by the end of 2013.Labour Ministry data showed the number of jobseekers in mainland France rose by 45,400, or 1.5%, to hit 3.103 million, marking the 18th consecutive monthly increase and taking the total to its highest level since April 1998.The increase was only slightly smaller than in October which saw the biggest jump in jobless rolls since April 2009, showing the deterioration in the job market is accelerating as recession in the broader euro zone hits demand.France's 1.9 trillion euro ($2.99 trillion) economy has been virtually stagnant since grinding to a halt at the end of last year, and many economists expect it to contract in the months ahead despite a surprise 0.2% rise in the third quarter.With the economy still struggling, the Labour Ministry said there was a risk the figures could get even worse.But it noted that new measures to bolster company investment and the youth job market that will kick in from next year have yet to produce results."This run of negative figures on employment only increases our resolve to do something to reverse the trend between now and the end of next year," Labour Minister Michel Sapin said in a statement.Hollande won power in May on a pledge to cut unemployment, but has since had to grapple with a wave of layoff announcements that have damaged his popularity and sapped public morale.The government unveiled a set of measures at the start of November, including sweeping tax rebates for companies, aimed at boosting industrial competitiveness and safeguarding jobs.French business newspaper Les Echos said Hollande was now planning a faster rollout of the rebates so that they reach full speed within two years instead of the three year build-up initially envisaged.Meanwhile, Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg has been increasingly vocal in his criticism of companies mulling job losses. He shocked steelmaker Arcelor Mittal this week, fanning tensions over two threatened blast furnaces, by saying its CEO was no longer welcome in France.With the pace of job losses rising steadily, surveys show the public wants more than promises to save the economy, and economists want deeper structural reforms.The Labour Ministry data is the most frequently reported domestic jobs indicator for France, although it is not prepared according to widely used International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards nor expressed as a rate of the number of job seekers compared with the total work force.

Thousands march in Rio over oil dispute

As many as 200 000 people demonstrated in Rio de Janeiro on Monday to urge Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to veto a bill that local officials say could cost Rio state billions of dollars in lost oil revenue and cripple plans to host the World Cup and Olympics.Late on Monday, a person familiar with the president's plans said Rousseff is planning to veto at least part of the bill, particularly a portion that redefines royalty payments for existing oil production in Brazil. The president, the person added, instead will propose that Rio and Espirito Santo, the two states with most of Brazil's oil output, continue to get a level of royalties from current production similar to what they received last year. The partial veto would not change parts of the bill that redefine oil royalties from production at new fields.For Rousseff, the protest raised the stakes on what may be the most sensitive decision she has faced in her nearly two-year-old government: How to distribute tens of billions of dollars in expected revenues from a massive offshore oil field that Brazil discovered in 2007.The bill, passed by Congress this month, would spread the windfall more evenly to Brazil's 26 states and federal district. As submitted for her approval, however, it would also alter royalties on existing production, angering Rio and other southeastern states where most of Brazil's oil is located.Rousseff has until Friday to veto the bill, but is expected to decide on the partial veto on Thursday, the person said.Monday's event had attracted about 200 000 demonstrators by early evening, according to police calculations.The protest began with a march through Rio's colonial centre and was followed by a series of speeches, concerts, and impromptu revelry that at times gave it a festive air. In recent days, state officials plastered streets and buildings with banners advertising the protest in large black and white lettering and a command in red for the president: "Veto, Dilma."Rio is spending tens of billions of dollars to build stadiums and other infrastructure for the 2014 soccer World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics - two marquee events expected to attract hundreds of thousands of visitors.Rio Governor Sergio Cabral, an ally of the president, led the protest. He has cast the debate in dire language that analysts say may exaggerate the financial stakes but has nonetheless intensified political pressure on Rousseff.The bill "would devastate the state budget and compromise the future of Rio. The state would be inviable," Cabral told journalists after the protest.He urged Rousseff to veto parts of the bill dealing with royalties for existing production, which he said would cost producer states and cities 6.5bn reais ($3.1bn) in 2013 alone.Approving the bill could hurt Rousseff's relations with Cabral's PMDB party, a large and ideologically shape-shifting group that is a linchpin of the broad coalition that supports her ruling Workers' Party.Rousseff has vowed to further Brazil's efforts to reduce poverty, in part by redistributing the windfalls from its growing commodity exports - from oil and iron ore to foodstuffs.Throughout the day on Monday, police had cordoned off large swaths of Rio's centre, along the river-like bay that gives the city its name. State and municipal officials facilitated attendance by waiving subway and ferry fees and providing buses from far-flung towns outside the capital.

NEWS,12.11.2012

Brazil Violence: At Least 140 Murdered In Sao Paulo Over Past Two Weeks

 

At least 140 people have been murdered in South America's biggest city over the past two weeks in a rising wave of violence, Sao Paulo's Public Safety Department says.Killings in Sao Paulo began sharply increasing in September, a month in which 144 people were killed, the department's website says. It says a total of 982 homicides took place in the city during the first nine months of the year.The victims included 90 police officers, most of them gunned down while off duty.A Public Safety Department official said Saturday that the killings of police have been ordered by imprisoned leaders of an organized crime group called the First Capital Command in reprisal for a crackdown on the drug trade. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.The First Capital Command is one of Brazil's most notorious organized crime groups. Based in Sao Paulo state prisons, the group allegedly was behind several waves of attacks on police, government buildings, banks and public buses in 2006. Those assaults and counterattacks by police in the slums killed more than 200 people.With the latest violence, shops and schools in some Sao Paulo districts closed early this past week as rumors of gang-imposed curfews spread. "In view of the wave of violence in the city's south zone, the school's directors decided to send staff and students home early so as to assure their safety," Eliane Valerio de Souza, administrative assistant at a professional training school, told the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.Sao Paulo state authorities last week said incarcerated leaders of the First Capital Command suspected of using smuggled cellphones to order attacks and coordinate drug sales, murders of rival gang members and the purchase of weapons, would be transferred to a maximum security federal prison outside the state.On Thursday, one of the gang's lower echelon leaders was sent go a federal penitentiary in northern Brazil. Others are expected be transferred by the end of the month.

Greece Racist Attacks Increase Amid Financial Crisis

 

The attack came seemingly out of nowhere. As the 28-year-old Bangladeshi man dug around trash bins one recent afternoon for scrap metal, two women and a man set upon him with a knife. He screamed as he fell. Rushed to the hospital, he was treated for a gash to the back of his thigh.Police are investigating the assault as yet another in a rising wave of extreme-right rage against foreigners as Greece sinks further into economic misery. The details vary, but the cold brutality of each attack is the same: Dark-skinned migrants confronted by thugs, attacked with knives and broken bottles, wooden bats and iron rods.Rights groups warn of an explosion in racist violence over the past year, with a notable surge since national elections in May and June that saw dramatic gains by the far-right Golden Dawn party. The severity of the attacks has increased too, they say. What started as simple fist beatings has now escalated to assaults with metal bars, bats and knives. Another new element: ferocious dogs used to terrorize the victims."Violence is getting wilder and wilder and we still have the same pattern of attacks ... committed by groups of people in quite an organized way," said Kostis Papaioannou, former head of the Greek National Commission for Human Rights.As Greece's financial crisis drags on for a third year, living standards for the average Greek have plummeted. A quarter of the labor force is out of work, with more than 50 percent of young people unemployed. An increasing number of Greeks can't afford basic necessities and healthcare. Robberies and burglaries are never out of the news for long.With Greece a major entry point for hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants seeking a better life in the European Union, foreigners have become a convenient scapegoat.Some victims turn up at clinics run by charities, recounting experiences of near lynching. Others are afraid to give doctors the details of what happened and even more afraid of going to the police. The more seriously hurt end up in hospitals, white bandages around their heads or plaster casts around broken limbs."Every day we see someone who complained of (some form) of racist violence," said Nikitas Kanakis, president of the Greek section of Doctors of the World, which runs a drop-in clinic and pharmacy in central Athens that treats the uninsured.Racist attacks are not officially recorded, so statistics are hard to come by. In an effort to plug that gap and sensitize a population numbed by three years of financial crisis, a group of rights groups and charities banded together to document the violence.They registered 87 cases of racist attacks between January and September, but say the true number runs into the hundreds."Most of the time the victims, they don't want to talk about this, they don't feel safe," Kanakis said. "The fear is present and this is the bigger problem."Frances William, who heads the tiny Tanzanian community of about 250 people, knows the feeling well."People are very, very much afraid," he said, adding that even going next door to buy bread, "I'm not sure I'll be safe to come back home."The community's cultural center was attacked several weeks ago, with amateur video shot from across the street showing a group of muscled men in black T-shirts smashing the entrance. Earlier that day, children standing outside during a birthday party were threatened by a man brandishing a pistol, William said.The recent elections showed a meteoric rise in popularity of the formerly marginalized Golden Dawn, which went from less than half a percent in 2009 elections to nearly 7 percent of the vote and 18 seats in the country's 300-member parliament in June.Campaigning on a promise to "clean up the stench" in Greece, the party whose slogan is "blood, honor, Golden Dawn" has made no secret of its views on migrants: All are in the country illegally and must be deported. Greece's borders must be sealed with landmines and military patrols, and any Greeks employing or renting property to migrants should face punishment.The party vehemently denies it is involved in racist attacks."The only racist attacks that exist in Greece for the last years are the attacks that illegal immigrants are doing against Greeks," said Ilias Panagiotaros, a burly Golden Dawn lawmaker who divides his working time between Parliament and his sports shop, which also sells military and police paraphernalia.His party is carrying out a "very legitimate, political fight . through parliament and through the neighborhoods of Athens and of Greece," he said.The party's tactics handing out food to poor Greeks, pledging to protect those who feel unprotected by the police are working. Recent opinion polls have shown Golden Dawn's support rising to between 9 and 12 percent.In late August, the conservative-led coalition government began addressing the issue of illegal immigration by rounding up migrants. By early November, they had detained more than 48,480 people, arresting 3,672 of them for being in the country illegally.Rights groups also warn that what started as xenophobic attacks is now spreading to include anyone who might disagree with the hard-right view. Greek society must understand that the far-right rise doesn't just concern migrants, said Kanakis."It has to do with all of us," he said. "It's a problem of everyday democracy."

U.S. To Become World's Largest Oil Producer, Exceeding Saudi Arabia, By 2020: International Energy Agency

 

The United States will become the world's largest oil producer by around 2020, temporarily overtaking Saudi Arabia, as new exploration technologies help find more resources, the International Energy Agency forecast on Monday.In its World Energy Outlook, the energy watchdog also predicted that greater oil and natural gas production thanks partly to a boom in shale gas output as well as more efficient use of energy will allow the U.S., which now imports around 20 percent of its energy needs, to become nearly self-sufficient around 2035. That is "a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries," the Paris-based IEA said in its report. "Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America and the energy sector."Rebounding U.S. oil and gas production is "steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade," the IEA said.For example, oil exports out of the Mideast will increasingly go to Asia as the U.S. becomes more self-sufficient. That will increase the global focus on the security of strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. Tensions between Iran and Western powers have raised concerns that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could be blocked in a potential conflict over Tehran's alleged plan to develop nuclear weapons.The IEA added that global trends in the energy markets will be influenced by some countries' retreat from nuclear power, the fast spread of wind and solar technologies and a rise in unconventional gas production.The agency concluded that despite the rising use of low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels "dominant in the global energy mix.""Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path," the IEA said.Global energy needs are forecast to increase by a third by 2035, with 60 percent of the additional demand coming from China, India and the Middle East.

NEWS,22.10.2012

Iran Policy and the 50th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis

The unrepentant neo-cons and backbenchers on Mitt Romney's foreign policy team, such as Dan Senor and Cofer Black, always advise their candidate to attack signs of "weakness" coming from President Obama. The Administration's announcement of direct talks between the U.S. and Iran should be welcomed as good news by those who don't wish to see yet another bloodbath in the Middle East but Romney can be counted on to condemn the diplomatic breakthrough as insufficiently hawkish. The news that Obama has chosen dialogue over saber-rattling gives Romney the opportunity to vent his criticism at the sole foreign policy debate that falls on the 50th anniversary of the night when President John F. Kennedy first made public the existence of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. Fifty years ago, President Kennedy, after being informed that Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev had deployed intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Cuba, was able to move beyond his knee jerk reaction to bomb and invade the island. Fortunately, over the course of days Kennedy tempered his response by adding statesmanship to his brinkmanship. The idea of bombing Cuba followed by a ground invasion was sidelined in favor of more incremental pressures: seeking multilateral assistance while enforcing a Naval "quarantine" of Soviet vessels to give negotiations more time.As the United States tries to assess the danger of Iran becoming a nuclear power the lessons of JFK's dealing with the Soviets over the change in the nuclear status quo is more relevant than ever.The bluster and war mongering of repeating the mantra "all options are on the table" needlessly heightens tensions and makes war more likely if it is not accompanied by face-saving ways out of the crisis. The U.S.'s adversary du jour, (in this case the fallible clerics who run the Islamic Republic of Iran), typically do not respond well to military threats of air strikes, "red lines," or "axis of evil" rhetoric (thank you David Frum). These kinds of intimidating tactics coming from a nuclear power that can lay waste to Iran, although favored by the neo-cons who brought us the disastrous war in Iraq, if devoid of any links to a pathway out of the confrontation amount to little more than bullying and belligerence. In the case of Iran, the threat of "the use of force" after years of George W. Bush's calamitous policies in the region do nothing to dissuade the Ayatollahs from continuing their nuclear enrichment program.Iran remains a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has safeguards and allowances for the civilian uses of nuclear power. The best U.S. intelligence analyses conclude that Iran is not building an atomic bomb. If President Kennedy could offer an off-ramp from disaster to Nikita Khrushchev, who was at the time the U.S.'s most bombastic ideological foe who possessed a nuclear arsenal big enough to do serious damage, then a sitting U.S. president today can give Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (a far weaker adversary) a similar face-saving way out of the current "crisis." Through secret backchannels, Kennedy offered Khrushchev sweeteners in the form of offering to remove the U.S.'s Jupiter missiles from Turkey and pledging not to invade the island in exchange for the Soviets agreeing to take their missiles out of Cuba. Any public ultimatum ("red line") against Iran absent of private offers of concessions amounts to nothing more than war mongering. A wiser policy toward Iran more akin to the one Kennedy applied to Cuba during the missile crisis would be to take the military option "off the table," quiet down the noise level from actors in the U.S. and in the region (such as Bibi Netanyahu) who are screaming for a war, and deal with Iran on terms of mutual respect and a realist recognition of shared interests. This dual-track policy appears to be where President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton are heading. It is the only policy that can defuse the "crisis." There is no military solution. Let's not forget that in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks Iran offered to help the United States track down Al Qaeda and has assisted in stemming the drug traffic out of Afghanistan. And let's also not forget that the Reagan Administration armed the government of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the mid-1980s in an attempt (according to Reagan) to open up a "dialogue." And let's not further forget that it was the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency that in August 1953 overthrew the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mossadegh and installed the Shah Reza Pahlavi. The CIA coup d'état, organized from within the U.S. embassy in Tehran, re-wrote that nation's history denying Iran in the early 1950s what might be called today a "Persian Spring." There has never been an adequate American acknowledgement that the U.S. was responsible for propping up a dictatorship in Iran under the Shah for 25 years, which set the stage for the 1979 revolution that brought the clerics to power in the first place. The recent history of American-Iranian relations, which has been a lengthy series of underhanded and failed policies, must be taken into account. A little humility on the American side could go a long way.In October 1962, President Kennedy's sobering experience during the missile crisis led directly to his American University speech of June 1963 where he called for an end to the demonization and brinkmanship of the Cold War. The crisis also put the Atmospheric Test-Ban Treaty on the front burner of his priorities and Kennedy spent considerable political "capital" in prodding the U.S. Senate to ratify the treaty. Had Kennedy decided to bomb and invade Cuba it would have been popular with the hardliners around him and with American public opinion. But it is also highly likely that one of the 98 tactical nuclear bombs on the island would have been detonated over the heads of U.S. marines. (There had been good cause for politicians and other residents of Washington to begin readying bunkers and bomb shelters.) On October 22, 1962, in announcing the existence of the missiles President Kennedy chillingly told the world that any detonation of a nuclear device in the Western Hemisphere would be considered "an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union." Yet he understood that Khrushchev would have to brush back the hardliners inside his own government. Imposing a U.S. Navy "quarantine" of Soviet ships heading for Cuba and bringing in the United Nations and allies to help find a way out of the crisis was the least pugnacious of the military options and it bought time for negotiations. Robert F. Kennedy was sent as his brother's emissary to privately talk to the Kremlin-connected journalist, Georgi Bolshakov, and to Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin. The U.S. offered to dismantle its Jupiter missiles in Turkey and agreed not to try to topple the Castro regime. In late 1963, Kennedy even sent out feelers to the Cuban government that normalizing U.S. relations might be a possibility if Castro agreed to certain conditions, such as limiting the Soviet military presence. Although these efforts were cut short by Kennedy's assassination they illustrate that he was willing to make substantial concessions and push against the Cold War orthodoxy of the period that took as gospel that the Soviets only respected threats of massive violence.With the ongoing partisan attacks against President Obama when facing challenges in a more complicated world than existed a half century ago, along with his ill-advised escalation of drone attacks that only increase tensions and create new enemies, the last thing this country needs is to blunder itself into another misguided war. What's needed when dealing with Iran and its nuclear program is the cautious pragmatism and willingness to bend and make concessions that characterized President Kennedy's strategy 50 years ago.During the missile crisis the United States and the Soviet Union sidelined regional actors who called for military actions that would be in nobody's interest (including those demanding it). And like the crisis of 1962 the tensions with Iran in 2012 can be lessened with a greater willingness to compromise, the offering of concessions, and a recognition that war will only bring added misery and hardship to the people in that part of the world who have already endured enough. Romney will no doubt go on the offensive against Obama's new Iran initiative decrying it as "weak" and not aligned with his neo-con proclivities. The Right's echo chamber will denounce the timing of the announcement of talks with Iran as an "October Surprise." But we mustn't allow their shrill, politicized whining about sensible diplomatic overtures drown out the crucial need for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Unfortunately, neither candidate today could make the kind of speech that President Kennedy delivered in June 1963 without enduring considerable political fallout. Kennedy said in his American University address: "History teaches us that enmities between nations, as between individuals, do not last forever. However fixed our likes and dislikes may seem, the tide of time and events will often bring surprising changes in the relations between nations and neighbors. So let us persevere. Peace need not be impracticable, and war need not be inevitable. By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we can help all people to see it, to draw hope from it, and to move irresistibly towards it... For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's futures. And we are all mortal .We shall  do our part to build a world of peace where the weak are safe and the strong are just. We are not helpless before that task or hopeless of its success. Confident and unafraid, we must labor on not towards a strategy of annihilation but towards a strategy of peace."

 

Romney and Obama in last chance debate

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney face off in front of the cameras for a final time this afternoon as opinion polls show their battle for the White House has tightened to a dead heat.With 15 days to go until the November 6 election, the two candidates turn to foreign policy for their third and last debate.The stakes are high. The two candidates are tied at 46% each in the Reuters/Ipsos online daily tracking poll, and the debate will likely be the last time either candidate will be able to directly appeal to millions of voters.Though few voters cite the war in Afghanistan or other national-security topics as a top concern, Obama can point to a number of successes on his watch, from the end of the Iraq war to the killing of Osama bin Laden.Romney will use worries about the prospect of a nuclear Iran and turmoil in Libya to try to amplify concerns about Obama's leadership at home and abroad."Many voters are ready to fire Obama if they see Romney as an acceptable alternative," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Center at Southern Illinois University."Foreign policy has not been a big driver of this campaign but I think Romney could add some icing to his cake if people say, 'Hey, this guy is on top of world affairs.'"Impact of debates Presidential debates have not always been consequential, but this year they have had an impact.Romney's strong performance in the first debate in Denver on October 3 helped him recover from a series of stumbles and wiped out Obama's advantage in opinion polls.Obama fared better in their second encounter on October 16, but that has not helped him regain the lead.The Obama campaign is now playing defense as it tries to limit Romney's gains in several of the battleground states that will decide the election.Romney could have a hard time winning the White House if he does not carry Ohio, and a new Quinnipiac/CBS poll shows Obama leading by 5 percentage points in the Midwestern state.Last-chance More than 60 million viewers watched each of their previous two debates, but the television audience this time could be smaller as it will air at the same time as high-profile baseball and football games.Much of the exchange, which takes place at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, will likely focus on the Middle East. Other topics such as trade with China and the debt crisis in Europe could allow the candidates to circle back to the economic concerns that are topmost on voters' minds.Campaigning in Canton, Ohio, Vice President Joe Biden on Monday reminded voters of Obama's pledge to pull troops out of Afghanistan in the next two years and pointed out that Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan have made no such guarantees."They said, quote, it depends. Ladies and gentlemen, like everything with them, it depends," Biden said. "It depends on what day you find these guys."Romney accuses Obama of presiding over a weakening in US influence abroad, but he has to assure voters he is a credible alternative to the president on the world stage. The former Massachusetts governor's July trip to London, Jerusalem and Poland was marked by missteps.Libya attack The two men at their second debate last week clashed bitterly over Libya, a preview of what is to come in today's debate.They argued over Obama's handling of the attack last month on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, in which Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were killed.The Obama administration first labeled the incident a spontaneous reaction to a video made in the United States that lampooned the Prophet Mohammad.Later, it said it was a terrorist assault on the 11th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks.This shifting account, and the fact that Obama went on a campaign trip the day after the attack, has given Romney ammunition to use at the Florida debate."The statements were either misleading by intention or they were misleading by accident. Either way, though, he's got to get to the bottom of this," Romney adviser Dan Senor said on NBC's "Today" show.'Leading from behind' Obama and his allies charge that Romney exploited the Benghazi attack for political points while officials were still accounting for the wellbeing of US diplomats.Regarding foreign policy overall, Obama's allies accuse Romney of relying on generalities and platitudes."It is astonishing that Romney has run for president for six years and never once bothered to put forward a plan to end the war in Afghanistan, for example, or to formulate a policy to go after al Qaeda," US Senator John Kerry, the Democrats' 2004 presidential nominee, wrote in a memo released by the Obama campaign on Monday.Romney has promised to tighten the screws over Iran's nuclear program and accused Obama of "leading from behind" as Syria's civil war expands.He also has faulted Obama for setting up a politically timed exit from the unpopular Afghanistan war, and accused him of failing to support Israel, an important ally in the Middle East.The Republican challenger is likely to bring up a New York Times report from Saturday that said the United States and Iran had agreed in principle to hold bilateral negotiations to halt what Washington and its allies say is a plan by Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.The 90-minute debate, moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS, will be divided into six segments: America's role in the world; the war in Afghanistan; Israel and Iran; the changing Middle East; terrorism; and China's rise.

'Fit' Fidel Castro appears in public

Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro has reappeared in public, meeting at a Havana hotel with a Venezuelan politician - quashing swirling rumours that the former leader was on his death bed.Castro - who led Communist Cuba for almost five decades before illness sidelined him - "is very well", Venezuela's former vice president Elias Jaua said on Sunday after meeting the bearded revolutionary icon.The 86 year-old Castro "is very well, very lucid", Jaua, a loyal supporter of leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whose government keeps the cash-strapped Cuban regime afloat with cut-rate oil and aid - told reporters.After the five-hour meeting on Saturday, Castro accompanied Jaua back to the posh Hotel Nacional, where the visitor was staying, and then posed wearing a straw farmer's hat for pictures with hotel staff."We are going to have Fidel with us for a long time," said hotel manager Antonio Martinez, who posed with Castro for a picture, in which Jaua also flashes a broad smile.Martinez said the former Cuban president was accompanied by his wife Dalia Soto del Valle during the visit to the hotel.Jaua, who is currently a candidate for Miranda state governor for Venezuela's ruling party, said he spoke with Castro about agriculture, history and international politics.Castro, who rose to power after the 1959 revolution, ceded the presidency to his younger brother Raul, 81, in July 2006 for health reasons.Castro had not been seen in public since 28 March, when Pope Benedict XVI paid a landmark visit to Cuba, and again briefly the following week on 5 April with Chilean student leader Camila Vallejo. Serious intestinal surgeryThat fuelled rumours his health had worsened, that he was dead or on his death bed - particularly since Castro also had not published one of his usually frequent editorials in official state media since 19 June.In the past five years since falling ill after serious intestinal surgery, Castro has penned about 400 editorials as well as books about the revolution, and welcomed a few international leaders in private events.Last week, he sent a letter of congratulations to medical school graduates which was picked up in state media, but he did not appear in public at the time.With rumours about Castro's health rife abroad, one of his sons, photographer Alex Castro, said last week at an exhibit in Guantanamo of pictures he took of his father after 2010 that Castro "was in good shape, doing his daily activities, exercising, reading and taking care of himself".The re-election of Chavez, 58, in Venezuela this month likely brought huge sighs of relief in Havana. For now, it can continue to count on Caracas' critical economic support, as Cuba presses its quest for its own oil to fund the Americas' only Communist regime in the future.Meanwhile, President Raul Castro, sporting his general's uniform, was out early on Sunday at a polling station to cast his ballot in one-party municipal elections, state TV showed. Fidel Castro cast his vote by absentee ballot, as those with physical ailments are allowed to do.