NEWS,05.11.2012

'King-maker' Ohio final stop before poll

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney stormed into the final day of campaigning before Election Day, on 6 November, once again visiting the toughest battleground state of all - Ohio. The industrial Midwestern state has picked the winner of the last 12 electionNationwide polls show the two locked in one of the closest, and most expensive, presidential races in recent US history.But a majority of polls in the battleground states especially in Ohio and other Midwestern states of Iowa and Wisconsin show Obama with a slight advantage. That gives him an easier path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. No Republican has won the White House without carrying Ohio, and it was possible that Romney would make a last-minute visit to the state on Election Day.Under the US system, the winner is not determined by the nationwide popular vote but in state-by-state contests, making nine "battleground" states that don't consistently vote Republican nor Democratic extremely important in such a tight race. Winning a state gives Romney or Obama that state's electoral votes, which are apportioned to states based on a mix of population and representation in Congress.This year's tight race raises the possibility of a replay of the chaotic 2000 election, when Republican George W Bush won the presidency with an electoral vote majority while Democrat Al Gore had a narrow lead in the nationwide popular vote.Both Obama and Romney say this year's winner will be determined by which of their campaigns can get the most supporters to the polls. "This is going to be a turnout election," the president declared in an interview airing on Monday. Obama needs the support of blacks and Hispanics to counter Romney's support among while men, but his campaign knows that the feeling of making history by electing America's first black president that fired up the 2008 campaign, has cooled.Rock legend Bruce Springsteen and rapper Jay-Z were joining Obama for Ohio events on Monday."We have one job left," and that's getting people out to vote, Romney told a Florida crowd on Monday morning. The crowd chanted, "One more day!"The cost of the presidential campaign has surged past $2bn.Romney, who described himself as "severely conservative" during the Republican primary campaign, has shifted sharply in recent weeks to appeal to the political centre and highlights what he says was his bipartisan record as governor of Democratic leaning Massachusetts. He continues to insist that his experience as a businessman would help fix the still-weak US economy a top issue with voters.Obama has come back from a weak performance in his first of three debates with Romney last month and hammered at Romney's shifting positions.The final national Wall Street Journal Poll, released on Sunday, showed Obama with the support of 48% of likely voters, with Romney receiving 47%. The poll had a margin of error of 2.55 percentage points.The final national poll from the Pew Research Centre found Obama with a three-point edge over Romney, 48% to 45% among likely voters, an improved showing that indicates the president may have benefited from his handling of the response to last week's Superstorm Sandy. Obama suspended three full days of campaigning to deal with the East Coast disaster. The Pew poll had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.If the election were held now, an Associated Press analysis found that Obama would be all but assured of 249 electoral votes by carrying 20 states that are solidly Democratic or leaning his way and the District of Columbia. Romney would lay claim to 206, from probable victories in 24 states that are strong Republican ground or tilt toward the Republicans.Up for grabs are 83 electoral votes spread across Colorado, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Of those, Republicans and Democrats alike say Obama seems in slightly better shape than Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney appears to be performing slightly better than Obama or has pulled even in Virginia and Florida.With Obama sustaining his lead in Ohio, Romney has made a surprise, last-minute move in neighbouring Pennsylvania. The state has voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections and has long been counted in the Obama column. Romney made his first visit of the fall campaign on Sunday.The theme from the movie Rocky blared from the loudspeakers as he stepped to the podium in a Philadelphia suburb. "The people of America understand we're taking back the White House because we're going to win Pennsylvania," Romney told a large crowd on a cold night.Obama's campaign said Romney's move in Pennsylvania showed the Republican's desperation over his diminished chances in Ohio. And the Obama campaign announced that former president Bill Clinton Obama's most powerful surrogate would make four campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Monday.About 30 million people have already cast ballots in 34 states and the District of Columbia, although none will be counted until Election Day on Tuesday.Storm-hit New York and New Jersey hurried to make voting accessible in a region where more than 1 million remain without power. The states, however, are considered by both campaigns to be heavily for Obama.

 

Obama and Romney in final voter appeals

The Democratic incumbent, appearing in Madison, Wisconsin, drew a large crowd that was warmed up by Bruce Springsteen."Wisconsin, tomorrow you have a choice to make," he said. "It is a choice between two different visions for America."On the defensive throughout the year for presiding over persistently high unemployment, Obama said the choice was between the Republicans' "top-down policies that crashed our economy" and his own approach to moving the country forward.Romney was in Lynchburg, Virginia, telling voters: "One final push is going to get us there."We're only one day away from a fresh start, one day away from the start of a new beginning," he said.Obama was making stops in three swing states and Romney was hitting four.Their goal was to piece together the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory in the state-by-state battle for the presidency.All eyes were on the Midwestern state of Ohio, whose 18 electoral votes could be decisive.After voting early in his home state of Massachusetts, Romney was considering a last-second visit to Ohio on election day to try to drive turnout, aides said.The election's outcome will impact a variety of domestic and foreign policy issues, from the looming "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax increases that could kick in at the end of the year to questions about how to handle illegal immigration or Iran's nuclear ambitions.The balance of power in Congress also will be at stake, with Obama's Democrats now expected to narrowly hold their Senate majority and Romney's Republicans favoured to retain control of the House of Representatives.In a race where the two candidates and their party allies raised a combined $US2 billion , the most in US history, both sides have pounded the heavily contested battleground states with an unprecedented barrage of ads.The close margins in state and national polls suggested the possibility of a cliffhanger that could be decided by which side has the best turnout operation and gets its voters to the polls.In the final days, both Obama and Romney focused on firing up core supporters and wooing the last few undecided voters in battleground states.Romney reached out to dissatisfied Obama supporters from 2008, calling himself the candidate of change and ridiculing Obama's failure to live up to his campaign promises."He promised to do so very much but frankly he fell so very short," Romney said at a rally in Cleveland on Sunday.Obama, citing improving economic reports on the pace of hiring, argued in the final stretch that he has made progress in turning around the economy but needed a second White House term to finish the job."This is a choice between two different versions of America," Obama said in Cincinnati.Obama will close his campaign with a final blitz across Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa - three Midwestern states that, barring surprises elsewhere, would be enough to get him more than the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.Polls show Obama has slim advantages in all three. His final stop on Monday night will be in Iowa, the state that propelled him to the White House in 2008 with a victory in its first-in-the nation caucus.Romney will visit his must-win states of Florida and Virginia where polls show he is slightly ahead or tied along with Ohio before concluding in New Hampshire, where he officially started his presidential run last year.The only state scheduled to get a visit on Monday US time from both candidates is Ohio, the most critical of the remaining battlegrounds - particularly for Romney. He has few paths to victory if he cannot win in Ohio, where Obama has kept a small but steady lead in polls for months.One in every eight jobs in Ohio is tied to car manufacturing and Obama has been buoyed in the state by his support for a federal bailout of the auto industry.Ohio also has a strong state economy with an unemployment rate lower than the 7.9% national rate.That has undercut Romney's frequent criticism of Obama's economic leadership, which has focused on the persistently high jobless rate and what Romney calls Obama's big-spending efforts to expand government power.Romney, who would be the first Mormon president, has centered his campaign pitch on his own experience as a business leader at a private equity fund and said it made him uniquely suited to create jobs.Obama's campaign fired back with ads criticising Romney's experience and portraying the multimillionaire as out of touch with everyday Americans.Obama and allies said Romney's firm, Bain Capital, plundered companies and eliminated jobs to maximize profits. They also made an issue of Romney's refusal to release more than two years of personal tax returns.

States that will decide White House race

The White House race has narrowed to a fight over less than 10 states ahead of Tuesday's tight election between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.Obama's strategy, with a final day of campaigning to go, is to solidify his last line of defence in the industrial Midwest, and to try to pluck away several insurance states from Romney's target list elsewhere.The Republican challenger trails the president in polls in many of the battleground states but retains a narrow and plausible path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.Romney's camp also argues that the challenger may not even be behind, claiming that state polls are based on unrealistic assumptions of the size of the Democratic slice of the electorate and underplay Republican enthusiasm.Here is the state of play in swing states that will decide whether Obama wins a second term, or Romney recaptures the White House for Republicans.

The number of electoral votes each state has is in brackets.

Obama's last line of defence

If Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and avoids any upsets on his turf, he is all but certain to become only the second Democrat to win two White House terms since World War II.

Romney spent months trying to tear the president's Midwestern "firewall" but was hampered by an Obama advertising blitz hammering him as a wealthy plutocrat who disdains the middle class.

-    Ohio (18)

In most recent polls, Obama led Ohio between two and five points, an ominous sign for Romney, as no Republican since the Civil War has lost the state and gone on to win the White House.

Obama touts his bailout of the indebted auto industry in 2009 and Romney's opposition to it, as one-in-eight jobs in the state are linked to the sector.

His team believes that Romney has undermined his hopes in Ohio by running an ad warning that Chrysler will outsource production of its Jeep vehicles to China, a charge the company's CEO has said is false.

Obama leads an average of polls in Ohio by the  website by 2.8%.

-    Wisconsin (10)

Wisconsin has been solid Democratic territory for years: the last time a Republican won the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

But Republicans, who managed to repel an attempt by Democrats to oust Governor Scott Walker in a recall election this year, have a solid ground game in the state, and Romney's running mate Paul Ryan is a local boy.

The president leads average by 4.2%.

-    Iowa (6)

Where it all started for Obama. The president built his grass roots operation in the agricultural heartland state and believes that after carving out an advantage in early voting, he has the edge on Romney.

Obama leads average in Iowa by 2.5%.

Up for grabs

-    Florida (29)

The Sunshine State, the largest electoral battleground, is often decisive in presidential elections, but may not be the kingmaker this time. But Obama is competing fiercely there because if he wins, it is all but impossible for Romney to take the White House.
A punishing foreclosure crisis and an unemployment rate higher than the national average have many analysts expecting Florida to swing to Romney.

Obama has led several recent polls however, and if he can get a bumper turnout in Democratic strongholds in the southern part of the state, he could pull off a surprise.

Romney leads average by 1.4%.

-    Virginia (13)

Neither side seem to know whether the state will revert to Republicans after Obama became the first Democrat to win there since 1964. Obama needs to maximize turnout among students, and African American voters around the cities of Richmond and Norfolk.

Romney will count on old school conservatives in rural areas of the state and look to cut down on Obama's margins with educated middle class voters in the Washington DC suburbs.

Currently, Romney leads average by 0.3%.

-    North Carolina (15)

The most likely state to move from Democratic to Republican because Obama won it by only 14 000 votes in 2008. Romney aides are certain their man will win, but the Obama camp has mobilised a massive early voting effort, which it says will keep the president competitive into election day.

Romney is up 3.8% in scoreboard.

-    Colorado (9)

Romney's best chance to grab a western swing state. Obama is relying on women and Hispanic voters to keep him in the game here and currently heads the RCP average by 0.6%.

-    New Hampshire (4)

The flinty northeastern state with an independent streak knows Romney well after he served as governor of neighbouring Massachusetts.

Obama won this state, in 2008 and leads average this year by 1.5%.

May be over

-    Nevada (6)

The Obama campaign says it has a substantial lead after early voting which means Romney needs to win big in election day voting.
Obama has a powerbase among Hispanic voters, and his trip to the bowels of a vast Las Vegas casino hotel to greet culinary workers a few weeks ago looks to have paid off.

Obama leads Nevada by 2.8% in average.

Romney's last stand

-    Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10)

Romney will make a late swoop into Pennsylvania on Sunday after ignoring the Keystone State for much of the campaign. Democrats say his move shows desperation and recognition that he cannot get to 270 electoral votes elsewhere. Obama leads the RCP average by 3.9%.

Republicans have also made big advertising buys in Democratic states Minnesota, where Obama is up by 5.8 five points, according to RCP and in Michigan where Obama leads by 3.8% in the averages.

Obama aide David Axelrod is so confident that he has offered to shave his trademark moustache if Romney wins any of the trio.

NEWS,02.11.2012

How many presidential campaign ads is too many?

It's 6:10pm on a Thursday in October, just days before the US elections. Before the clock hits 6.29pm, 11 political ads will have aired on the local NBC channel in Columbus, Ohio.One tells voters that Democratic President Barack Obama has not proposed a legitimate economic plan for the country.Another suggests that policies of Republican candidate Mitt Romney would undermine the future for America's children.Yet another says Romney would effectively deny many women crucial cancer screenings by proposing cuts to Planned Parenthood.The very next ad calls Obama an extremist on abortion who supports leaving babies "out to die."Ohio is being inundated with such dueling ads in the final days before the November 6 presidential election, as Obama and Romney both look to the state's 18 electoral votes as a crucial step toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.The presidential race is now a fight in eight or so politically divided "swing" states, but nowhere more so than Ohio.Amid the chaos of the campaign's closing days, the state has become an arena for credibility-stretching banter, and a testing center for the growing science of political advertising.New research predicts that total spending in this election could reach $US6 billion , making it the most expensive in US history.The campaigns and free-spending independent groups have poured close to $US1 billion into political ads - many of those ads directed at Ohio - and have given analysts a high-profile chance to examine some simmering questions about such ads.Among them: How many ads is too many, before viewers tune them out? And what do campaign ads lead voters to do, exactly?Election-year political ads are a meticulously studied subject, and increasingly are used to target specific groups and encourage specific outcomes.Some research, for example, suggests that pro-Democrat ads are particularly effective at swaying voters' opinions, while pro-Republican ads typically are more effective at getting party supporters to show up at the polls.For all the analysis that has been done on campaign ads, academic and commercial research has yielded few answers on the precise impact that ads have in determining who wins an election.That is especially true, analysts said, in the type of advertising free-for-all that Ohio residents are seeing on their televisions now - wave after wave of ads with overlapping and similarly dark, daunting messages.Campaign ads became tiresome long ago for many Ohio residents, but some viewers figure that the ads must be working, or the campaigns wouldn't keep running them."I think poorly of those ads and don't think they work, but there are so many of them I think it must be not so," said JoAnne Harvey, a Columbus small business owner who, as an undecided female voter, is much coveted by both campaigns.In a reflection of how so many ads can essentially nullify one another, Harvey and another dozen Ohioans interviewed generally could not recall the details of a single campaign ad that stood above the others.Those who could acknowledged that they weren't sure which side the ad was meant to benefit.Political advertising has become a multibillion-dollar market that some television station sales managers predict soon could be a year-round category of advertising.It has become increasingly sophisticated in "micro-targeting," the art of going after specific groups of viewers.For example, Democrats have been found to be more frequent television watchers than Republicans, and Democrats candidates in 2008 ran more than twice as many ads as Republicans during science-fiction shows, reality dating programs and telenovelas, according to research by Washington State University professor Travis Ridout and others.Those programs as well as talk shows and court shows tended to skew Democratic in viewership while crime and sports programs skewed Republican, Ridout's study found.But does the science of political advertising work?One study completed last month found Obama's ads moving voters away from Romney, while Romney's ads were much more likely to encourage Republicans to vote, rather than shift preferences among voters.The findings were based on a survey of more than 2,300 registered voters who said they were independents or not deeply committed to one party.They were shown one or several of the campaigns' ads by the research software company Qualtrics and the research firm Evolving Strategies."Romney doesn't seem to have a lot of ability to have people moving in and out of the independent pool, but he has a lot of room to change the equation in determining who turns out to vote," said Adam Schaeffer of Evolving Strategies.If the targets of this year's ads are any guide, the presidential election will be decided by middle-aged and older white women, according to a survey of more than 1,000 buying agencies done by STRATA, a software firm whose systems help air some $US50 billion worth of ads a year.The question is whether the barrage of ads - the vast majority of them attacking a candidate, rather than promoting one will become so overwhelming that they provoke a backlash.Such ads "did work on me at first, and then I became a lot more cynical and realized that a lot of it is political warfare," said Harvey, who added that she voted for Obama in 2008 but was leaning toward Romney now."It seems almost epidemic; they can't stop now that they've started."A rule of thumb in advertising is that an ad needs to be viewed at least three times and up to 10 to be effective, said STRATA Chief Executive John Shelton."There's no question that once you start to go over (10), you start to, well, at least bore people," he said. "Then they might tune out. Then they might actually get ticked off."Barbara Berry, a healthcare professional and Obama supporter from Columbus, said she pre-records TV programs and skips ads."I don't pay attention anymore," she said.Since late August, more than 915,000 presidential campaign ads have aired on broadcast and national cable TV, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. In Columbus during October, ads by the campaigns and outside groups aired more than 7,000 times."Some of them just disappear in the noise," said Dan Bradley, general manager at the Columbus NBC affiliate WCMH-TV.Each presidential campaign has been producing about a dozen new ads a week, basing them on daily news events a practice that ensures that most of the ads have a short shelf life.Romney in particular tends to place and replace ads at the spur of the moment, often in response to the news of the day.Obama's campaign runs two ad tracks: one that changes every one or two days, the other every couple of weeks.Ads this year "just seem to be rushed," said John Geer, a political ad researcher at Vanderbilt University.It's "almost like they've fallen prey to the fact that the campaigns have so much money, and the ability to make all these ads."

New York fuel 'panic' grows even as ports open

A third day of "panic buying" of gasoline among Sandy-struck New York area motorists on Friday has prompted action from authorities.The US government waived the Jones Act barring foreign-flagged vessels from carrying fuel between US ports in a bid to boost supplies from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he would temporarily lift tax and registration requirements on tankers docking in the New York Harbor, which had just reopened to oil vessels.While the waivers sent benchmark New York gasoline futures 2% lower, they will do little to address the biggest obstacle to getting fuel to consumers: the power outages that have shut nearly two-thirds of the service stations in the New Jersey and New York City area and are still hindering service at major oil terminals and refineries along the harbour.Faced with the prospect of another day of hunting for fuel or losing out on business, New York City cab driver Mohammad Sultan parked his yellow taxi at a Hess station on Coney Island Avenue, Brooklyn at midnight on Thursday so he could be first in line when a rumoured fuel shipment arrived at 6 am.At 9 am with 180 vehicles behind him, the pumps were still empty. Officials said the number of cabs on the road by Friday morning was down 24% from last week."Because of the gas problem, there are thousands of yellow cabs sitting around wasting time and money," Sultan said.There were some signs that the complex New York Harbor network of storage tanks and pipelines was finally returning to service after Sandy dealt it a direct hit, crippling the ability to fuel the nation's most dense consumer population.The region's biggest pipeline, Colonial, restarted much of its northern line, and an oil tanker carrying 2 million gallons of gasoline docked overnight in Newburgh, New York, 60 miles north of New York city. Other ships were finally offloading cargoes in the harbor after being stuck at anchor for the past week.But those measures were cold comfort for residents stuck in hours-long queues, often with no guarantee that supplies would be available when they got to the front of the line or that enough power would be restored to get more stations open.The situation is wearing on New Yorkers. Juliana Smith, a full-time student, spent 2-1/2 hours in line to fill two five-gallon containers on Friday, an hour more than on Thursday."It's psychotic," she said. "People are angry. We have no power. No heat. We need gas for the generator and our Ford Explorer, which is a monster."Prices at the pump have remained steady despite the shortages, motorist group AAA said, averaging just below $4 a gallon in New York City, 2 cents lower than last week.However, on Long Island, where only a third of all stations were working, average gasoline prices jumped 5 cents from a day earlier.But online, Craigslist users started offering gasoline at as much as $15 a gallon to motorists and homeowners not wishing to brave the lines.There were signs the situation could improve in the coming days as wholesale markets begin to work again.Colonial Pipeline, a 5,500-mile (8,900-km) network that runs from the Gulf Coast refining center up the eastern seaboard, said late on Thursday it had resumed fuel deliveries at its Linden facility in New Jersey, the terminus of the line.It expects to pump around 700,000 barrels a day into the area, which is a normal volume, spokesman Steve Baker said.Fuel barge shipments into New York Harbor will be allowed on Friday, the Coast Guard said, if they have a place to offload.Environmental Protection Agency waivers for clean diesel and gasoline specifications, granted earlier this week, should make it easier for suppliers to meet demand in the days ahead.News of the Jones Act waiver sent NYMEX gasoline prices sharply lower. The December RBOB contract fell 6 cents, or 2.3%, to close at $2.5736 a gallon, just below where it was trading last week prior to Sandy's arrival.Rates to charter fuel tankers to the Northeast nearly doubled as traders scrambled to sell to the region, where supplies were constricted by the closure of two New Jersey refineries that make up one-third of the region's capacity.The Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, known as "the gasoline machine" by oil traders, may be shut for weeks due to flood damage, although the company has said internally it is "optimistic of restarting soon," a source familiar with operations said. The company has said that a decision on when to reopen will be made "once all assessments are complete."Phillips' Linden fuel terminal was supplying only emergency response vehicles as of Friday afternoon.

Obama, Romney return to attack

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney went back on the attack on Thursday, breaking a storm-induced campaign truce to hit the road and pound home their closing messages in the final stretch of a tight battle for the White House.With five days left until Tuesday's election, Obama received an endorsement from New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, resurrected his 2008 "change" slogan and said he was the only candidate who had actually fought for it.Romney criticised Obama as a lover of big government who would expand the federal bureaucracy.National polls show the race deadlocked, and Obama and Romney will spend the final days in eight swing states that will decide who wins the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.Obama made Wisconsin the first stop on a four-state swing on Thursday that also took him to rallies in Nevada and Colorado before going to Ohio for the night. Romney had a full day of campaigning across Virginia."You may be frustrated at the pace of change, but you know what I believe, you know where I stand," Obama told a crowd of 2 600 people on an airport tarmac in Wisconsin, a state that is a vital piece of his electoral strategy. "I know what change looks like because I've fought for it."At a rally in Doswell, Virginia, Romney criticised Obama's comment that he would like to consolidate government agencies that deal with business issues in a new department under a secretary of business."I don't think adding a new chair to his Cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street," Romney said.Jobs will again be the focus of fierce debate on Friday when the government releases the unemployment figures for October. Any big change from the 7.8% number in September could potentially sway voters.Obama and Romney had put campaigning on hold for several days as the historic storm Sandy pounded the eastern seaboard, leaving a trail of destruction and forcing Obama to turn his attention to storm relief.That pause produced some unexpected political benefits for Obama, who won warm praise from Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Romney supporter, and he spent days directing federal relief efforts in a show of presidential leadership that largely sidelined Romney.New York's Bloomberg a Republican-turned-independent who did not back a candidate in 2008 endorsed Obama and cited the Democrat's record on climate change, an issue that has gained more attention since the storm.Bloomberg said Obama had taken significant steps to reduce carbon consumption, while Romney had backtracked on earlier positions he took as governor of Massachusetts to battle climate change. Obama said he was "honoured" by the backing of Bloomberg, who flirted with White House runs in the past.On their first day back on the trail, both Obama and Romney returned to political attacks but struck a slightly more positive tone than usual in trying to woo undecided voters and push their own supporters to vote.In Doswell, Romney proclaimed his faith in the future and said, "The American people have what it takes to come out of these tough times."In Wisconsin, Obama drew distinctions with Romney but dropped his usual reference to "Romnesia" the term he uses to describe what he calls Romney's tendency to shift positions.Obama has a somewhat easier path to 270 electoral votes than Romney, fueled primarily by a small but steady lead in the vital battleground of Ohio a crucial piece of any winning scenario for either candidate - and slight leads in Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.Barring any surprises elsewhere, Obama can win a second term by capturing the Midwestern bastions of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and his schedule was aimed at shoring up his safety net there.Obama plans to visit Ohio on each of the last four days of the campaign, and plans two more trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. He will conclude his campaign on Monday night with rock singer Bruce Springsteen in Iowa, where a 2008 caucus win launched his run to the presidency.So far, Obama has planned just one visit each in the final days to Florida and Virginia, where most polls give Romney a slight lead. Romney will hit Wisconsin and Ohio on Friday, and New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado on Saturday.Romney plans to finish up his campaign on Monday night in New Hampshire, the state where he launched his bid last year.Romney's campaign has aired ads in recent days in the Democratic-leaning states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, hoping to put them in play after polls showed the races tightening but Obama still ahead.The campaign said Romney would visit Pennsylvania on Sunday, marking his first campaign visit since the nominating convention to one of his new target states. A win in Pennsylvania would be a crippling blow to Obama, but most public polls still show Obama leading there.Romney aides said the moves into those three new states were a sign of their growing momentum, although Obama aides described them as a desperate ploy to find new paths to 270 electoral votes.A  online poll on Thursday showed the race remained effectively deadlocked, with Obama at 47% to Romney's 46%. Most national polls showed roughly similar results.Most swing-state polls have found Obama clinging to slender leads in five of the eight most heavily contested states - Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. In most polls, Romney has a slight lead in Florida, while Virginia and Colorado were effectively tied.Online poll on Thursday showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Virginia, and 2-point leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida. Romney led by 1 point in Colorado in the polls.

NEWS,01.11.2012

Bloomberg endorses Obama over climate change

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has endorsed US President Barack Obama for a second term, citing the importance of Obama's record on climate change.The endorsement follows the devastating blow dealt to the New York area by superstorm Sandy."Our climate ischanging,""And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City andaround the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be given this week's devastation should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action."Bloomberg said Obama had taken significant steps to reduce carbon consumption, whereas Republican challenger Mitt Romney had backtracked on earlier positions he had taken as governor of Massachusetts to battle climate change.Obama 'honoured' The nod from Bloomberg, a Republican turned independent, comes after Obama won praise from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a Republican, for his quick reaction to the storm."I'm honored to have Mayor Bloomberg's endorsement," Obama said in a statement."I deeply respect him for his leadership in business, philanthropy and government, and appreciate the extraordinary job he's doing right now, leading New York City through these difficult days."'Divisive populist agenda' But Mayor Bloomberg also criticised Obama in his article, accusing him of embracing a "divisive populist agenda".He also said Obama had "devoted little time and effort to developing and sustaining a coalition of centrists, which doomed hope for any real progress on illegal guns, immigration, tax reform, job creation and deficit reduction".However, Bloomberg concluded that on a number of issues dear to him, Obama stood closer to him than Romney, who he chastised for changing some of his positions - including his policy on climate change."If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him because, like so many other independents, I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing," Bloomberg said.'Work not yet done' Obama returned to the campaign trail for the first time in four days on Thursday, declaring "our work is not yet done" and reviving his successful 2008 campaign slogan: change.The president, who won the White House four years ago thanks in part to his themes of "hope" and "change," had largely avoided the same themes until now.Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, sought to portray himself as the new candidate of change, Obama aimed to reclaim that mantle in a neck-and-neck race with just five days to go before Election Day on November 6."I know what change looks like because I've fought for it," Obama told a crowd of some 2,600 on an airport tarmac in Wisconsin, one of a handful of battleground states that will determine the winner of the election.Obama said Romney's proposals to reduce regulations for banks and cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans were examples of policies that had led to the economic problems that he inherited when he became president in 2009.'Salesman' Romney "Governor Romney has been using all his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly - the very same policies we've been cleaning up after for the past four years - and he is offering them up as change," Obama said."Well, let me tell you Wisconsin, we know what change looks like. And what the governor is offering sure ain't change."The Romney campaign, boosted by their candidate's surge in the polls over the past month, dismissed Obama's arguments."We've said all along this election is a choice between the status quo and real change  change that offers promise that the future will be better than the past," said Romney spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg."President Obama's misguided policies and broken promises have let down millions of Americans, and we can't afford four more years like the last four."Obama conceded that he had not been able to make progress on all the changes he promised in 2008, but he noted as he repeatedly does that he ended the war in Iraq, repealed a policy that prevented gays and lesbians from serving openly in the military, and ordered the US mission that killed Osama bin Laden.Keeping a slightly more positive tone, Obama drew distinctions with Romney without being as aggressive as he has been in recent weeks.He did not mention the word "Romnesia" - the term he has used to delight crowds when describing what he says are Romney's tendencies to shift positions.But he kept up strong criticism of his opponent. Obama portrayed the Republican challenger as someone who would not bring bipartisanship to Washington - a promise Obama also made four years ago and has had trouble keeping.Superstorm Sandy Obama, who has focused his campaign primarily on appealing to middle class Americans, also used a section of his speech to praise the record of former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, who has become the top surrogate for Obama in the final days of the campaign.The remarks were Obama's first at a political event since Sandy devastated parts of the eastern United States earlier this week.The president spent three days off the campaign trail to oversee the response effort.Obama opened his remarks with a nod to the suffering experienced by those affected by the storm, and aides said he would be briefed about the recovery process throughout the day.Meanwhile, Romney returned to campaign attacks against Obama, hitting the Democrat for proposing more governmentbureaucracy.Romney returns to Obama criticism Romney swept into must-win Virginia looking to increase turnout among Republican voters in a conservative area of the state to help offset the Democrats' advantage the northern area.Virginia went for Obama in 2008 but may flip for the Republican this year."Turnout here makes a big difference," Romney told a crowd gathered inside a window and door factory.The former governor of Massachusetts had not mentioned Obama's name in two days of events this week as he toned down campaign rhetoric while Americans along the East Coast reeled from the superstorm Sandy.But with the recovery now under way, Romney resumed his standard campaign fare of singling out the president for criticism.He leaped on a comment that Obama made in an interview aired by MSNBC on Monday in which the president said he would like to create a new government agency headed by a "secretary of business' to try to help businesses create jobs."I've said that I want to consolidate a whole bunch of government agencies. We should have one Secretary of Business, instead of nine different departments that are dealing with things like giving loans to SBA (the Small Business Administration) or helping companies with exports," Obama had said.This comment bolstered Romney's charge that the president wants to expand government rather than boost the private sector."I don't think adding a new chair to his cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street," Romney said.The race for the White House remained effectively tied on Thursday, with Obama backed by 47% of likely voters and Romney supported by 46% in a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll. That margin has been constant in the online poll for three days running and is statistically insignificant.

No fuel as NY pumps run dry

 

Drivers and homeowners scrambled to secure fuel for their cars and generators in the US Northeast on Wednesday as storm-hit petrol stations started to run dry.More than half of all petrol service stations in the New York City area and New Jersey were shut because of depleted fuel supplies and power outages, frustrating attempts to restore normal life, industry officials said.Reports of long lines, dark stations and empty tanks circulated across the region, with some station owners unable to pump fuel due to a lack of power. Others quickly ran their tanks dry because of intensified demand and logistical problems in delivering fresh supplies.The lack of working petrol stations is likely to compound travel problems in the region, with the New York City subway system down until at least Thursday and overland rail and bus services severely disrupted. Homeowners running back-up generators during the power cuts may also run short of fuel.“I don’t have any lights and need this gasoline for my generator,” said Abdul Rahim Anwar at a Getty service station in Gowanus, Brooklyn, as he put two full jerry cans into his trunk.Tempers flared as a queue of at least 30 cars spilled down the street, with drivers blaring horns, shouting and getting out of their cars. Pump attendant Nadim Amid said the station had already run out of regular gasoline and only had a tiny amount of super unleaded and diesel left. One driver, a doctor who asked not to be named, said she had driven from New Jersey, where half of all businesses and homes are still without power. More than 80% of filling stations in the state were unable to sell gasoline as of Wednesday morning, said Sal Risalvato, head of the New Jersey Gasoline, Convenience, Automotive Association.“It’s going to be an ugly few days until we can see both power and supplies restored,” Risalvato said. Petrol stations on New York’s Long Island and the city borough of Staten Island also reported shortages, while lengthy lines were seen in the borough of Queens. Commuters may see higher prices at the pumps in the coming days, though oil traders said it will also dampen demand for fuel and increase stockpiles in the region.A source at the US Environmental Protection Agency said it has received a request from a state hit by the storm to waive a clean gasoline requirement to help ease increase supplies. Gas but no power, power but no gasKevin Beyer, president of the Long Island Gasoline Retailers Association in Smithtown, New York, estimated that less than half of all stations were able to sell fuel from Wednesday morning.“I have gas in the ground but no power. For many others they’re facing the opposite problem, with power but no gasoline. For the few stations that are lucky enough to have both they’ve got huge lines out front,” Beyer said.Beyer estimated it could take until the end of next week to get all fuel stations operating again.The problem is not a severe shortage of fuel in the Northeast, but widespread power outages and the storm-related logistical problems of getting the fuel from refineries and terminals to those who need it.Jenn Hibbs, an account director at marketing firm Marden-Kane in Garden City, Long Island, said there was only one fuel station open within 16km of her house. Friends were sharing tips on Facebook about where they could get fuel, but two lines for gas leading to the service station were both over half a mile long.“It’s making people think about whether they can get to work, whether they have enough gas in the tank to get there and back,” Hibbs said.

Obama, Romney get back to campaigning

President Barack Obama returned to full-force campaigning on Thursday, ending a three-day pause to manage the federal response to the historic storm that battered the East Coast. He holds slim leads in many of the key US battleground states five days before the 6 November election.Polling, however, also shows Obama locked in a tie nationwide with Republican challenger Mitt Romney, who tempered his criticism of the president this week to avoid the appearance of seeking political advantage in the midst of a natural disaster.Both candidates faced a day of trying to strike the right tone in an intensely stressful race.Battleground statesObama's lead in a majority of the nine so-called battleground states could determine the outcome. Those states are neither reliably Republican nor Democratic, giving them outsized importance in the US system for choosing the president. The winner is not the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide but the one who manages to accumulate at least 270 electoral votes in state-by-state contests. Those votes are determined by a combination of a state's population and representation in Congress.Despite a Romney surge nationwide after the three presidential debates, polling shows Obama holding on to leads in enough of the all-important swing states - most notably Ohio - to win at least the necessary 270 electors. No Republican candidate for the White House has ever won the election without capturing Ohio.Both candidates are battling to win over the thin slice of the electorate that remains undecided while ensuring that their supporters go to the polls. SandySuperstorm Sandy was bound to hurt turnout in hard-hit New Jersey and New York, but both are heavily Democratic, and it was unlikely to have a significant effect on results. Election officials were promising every effort to have polls open or direct voters to alternative locations where necessary.This week's storm, and the federal government response to the devastation, could serve to cause voters to make up their minds.The contest between Obama and Romney, at heart, has been an argument over the role of the federal government in the lives of Americans.Obama believes Washington can have a positive effect. Romney believes the government should become much smaller and, therefore, collect much less in taxes.Obama has been given high marks, even from some of his harshest Republican critics, for his handling of this week's storm crisis and the dispatch of massive federal aid to victims. Romney has been forced to answer questions about his earlier campaign statements that the key federal emergency relief organisation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency or Fema, should turn its role over to the states.Heavy travelAs his campaign resumes, Obama will try to make up for lost time with a heavy travel itinerary in the coming days, including rallies on Thursday in Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.Obama spokesperson Jennifer Psaki said the president remains focused on the storm recovery, but must resume campaigning because of the "reality" of Tuesday's election and the need to continue making the case for Americans to give him four more years in the White House.The partisan sniping continued this week from the candidates' surrogates and their running mates. Much of it focused on Romney's new television and radio ads in critical Ohio that suggest automakers General Motors and Chrysler are adding jobs in China at the expense of workers in the Midwestern swing state. Vice President Joe Biden said the spots were "one of the most flagrantly dishonest ads I can ever remember".Obama's campaign planned to keep pressing its criticism of the ads as it seeks to block Romney's prospects for a breakthrough in Ohio and other Midwestern states where the auto industry is deeply important to the economy, the most important issue in the 2012 election.The Republican ticket hasn't backed away from the ad. Running mate Paul Ryan said in a statement that "American taxpayers are on track to lose $25bna s a result of President Obama's handling of the auto bailout, and GM and Chrysler are expanding their production overseas".FactsIn fact, Chrysler is adding 1 100 jobs to its plant in Toledo, Ohio. It's also adding production facilities in China as demand for cars there grows. Because of trade rules, it's easier for companies to build cars for the Chinese market in China. It's also more efficient. Japanese automakers, for example, have plants in the US to meet American demand.Romney was campaigning Thursday in Virginia, while Ryan was appearing at events in Nevada and Colorado.Biden had two events scheduled in Iowa. Obama was starting his day in Wisconsin, making up an event that was cancelled earlier in the week because of the storm. He had a rally planned later in Las Vegas, as well as Boulder, Colorado, a heavily Democratic area.More than 19 million people have already voted in the presidential, either by mail or in person. No votes will be counted until 6 November, but some key states are releasing the party affiliation of those who have voted.Democrats have an edge in votes cast in battleground states Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. Republicans have an advantage in Colorado.

NEWS,26.10.2012

If Obama Wins, Clinton Will Stay At His Side: Countdown Day 11

Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are turning into the most watchable buddy-buddy road show since "Starsky and Hutch." All they're missing are platform shoes and a Gran Torino Next week they will travel together to Florida, Ohio and Virginia, as Clinton tries to infuse his explanatory magic into Obama's campaign-trail pitch in the final days of a grueling 2012 race.But as attention turns even before Election Day to the dreaded "fiscal cliff" looming at year's end, it's becoming clear that Clinton's sidekick duties will not be over on November 6 if Obama wins.If the current president gets the chance to try to fashion a post-election deal, he'll need Clinton's help in selling it to fellow Democrats.White House staffers are already working overtime on the details of various potential deals; corporate America is begging for demanding prompt action to avoid massive tax increases and draconian "sequestered" spending cuts on January 2.Administration officials argue that they will be in a better position to make a deal with the post-election Congress than a Romney proto-presidency would be.Obama long ago signaled willingness to take on his own party by countenancing entitlement cuts. Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), are irrevocably committed to not raising income tax rates on anyone, and not raising the overall tax burden.Since the essence of any deal would be concession on both sides of the ledger, Romney's first act as president-elect would require picking a tax fight with the Tea Party and perhaps Ryan.Meanwhile, Obama's staff and advisers inside and outside the White House many of them former staffers for Bill Clinton are looking at options. If their boss wins, talks will begin immediately."I don't see Clinton sitting in on the negotiations," said a source who is very close to both men. "Budget talks are incredibly detailed and exhausting. You have to be totally immersed, and the president has to take the lead. I don't see Clinton in that process."But if we get a tentative agreement, I expect that the former president will be asked to help sell it, and I am sure that he will," said the source, who asked for anonymity to frankly discuss both men. "Nobody could do it better."Clinton has done it before. In December 2010, Obama was forced to accept an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts in exchange for a deal to extend unemployment insurance, an extension of the payroll tax cut and other items on the Democrats' agenda.As it happened, a meeting with Clinton was already on the president's schedule that day. After the two met privately in the Oval Office, Clinton suggested off-the-cuff that they both go to the briefing room, where Clinton gave a ringing defense of the deal.A planned and elaborate version of the same thing could happen this December, if the president is reelected and can fashion a tentative agreement.Obama would need the help. He is not on good terms with members of Congress in general even, if not especially, with members of his own party, some of whom regard him as aloof to the point of condescension. There are some key Democrats in the House with whom he has never had a serious and extended conversation.The president has already indicated and indicated again recently in his interview with the Des Moines Register editorial board hat he is open to a deal that would include substantial new cuts to entitlement programs, an idea that is anathema to much of his party.Selling that part of the deal to constituencies such as labor, the Congressional Black Caucus and teachers groups, to name a few, would be Clinton's brief. As for family self-interest, there would be plenty. Most economists and business experts think that a real, substantive budget deal one that, for example, would save the $4 trillion suggested by the Simpson-Bowles Plan would boost both the psychology and reality of the American, and thus the global, economy.Four good years of Democratic-led U.S. economic growth would set things up nicely for current Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.There's never been a TV show like it, but "The Good Husband" might sell.

 

Powell endorsed Obama

An outspoken surrogate for Mitt Romney's White House campaign suggested late on Thursday that race was a factor in former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement of President Barack Obama.Former New Hampshire governor John Sununu told CNN that the re-endorsement of Obama by Powell - a Republican who served in both Bush presidencies but backed Obama in 2008 - was possibly due to both men being African-Americans."Frankly, when you take a look at Colin Powell you have to wonder whether that's an endorsement based on issues or whether he's got a slightly different reason for preferring President Obama," Sununu told CNN host Piers Morgan."When you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the United States, I applaud Colin for standing with him."The remarks by Sununu, a prominent and often flamboyant supporter of Romney, could inject race into a campaign the Republican challenger has tried to keep focused on the sluggish US economy.The remarks came just two days after Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, explaining his anti-abortion stance, sparked controversy by saying that pregnancies caused by rape are "something God intended to happen".Distracting from Republican argumentThose remarks threatened to slow Romney's progress in winning over vital women voters in key swing states and gave Obama an opening to brand Republicans as extremists when it comes to women's rights.Sununu's remarks could prove less damaging as Obama already enjoys overwhelming support among African-American voters but may further distract from Republicans' central argument against the president's economic policies.The two presidential candidates are locked in a virtual tie less than two weeks ahead of the 6 November election, with Romney enjoying a slight lead in national polls but Obama holding a narrow edge in vital battleground states.Powell, who served as chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President George H W Bush and secretary of state under President George W Bush, is a moderate Republican once seen as a promising presidential prospect.In his re-endorsement of Obama on Thursday, Powell credited the president with recent improvements in the economy and praised him as a steely commander-in-chief who had wound down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

US consumers boost economic growth

US economic growth picked up in the third quarter as a late burst in consumer spending offset the first cutbacks in investment in more than a year by cautious businesses.The stronger pace of expansion, however, fell short of what is needed to make much of a dent in unemployment, and offers little cheer for the White House ahead of the closely contested November 6 presidential election.Gross domestic product expanded at a 2% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, accelerating from the second quarter's 1.3% pace. A pace in excess of 2.5% is needed over several quarters to make substantial headway cutting the jobless rate.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9% growth pace in the third quarter. The report comes a little more than a week before the election in which President Barack Obama is trying to fend off Republican challenger Mitt Romney.Since climbing out of the 2007-09 recession, the economy has faced a series of headwinds from high gasoline prices to the debt turmoil in Europe and, lately, fears of US government austerity. It has struggled to exceed a 2% growth pace and remains about 4.5 million jobs short of where it stood when the downturn started. Consumers, however, largely shrugged off the impending sharp cuts in government spending and higher taxes, which are due at the start of the year absent congressional action. Indeed, they went on a bit of a shopping spree as the quarter wound down, buying a range of goods - including automobiles and Apple's iPhone 5.Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, grew at a 2% rate after increasing 1.5% in the prior period.Spending despite income squeezeHigh stock prices and firming house values have made households a bit more willing to take on new debt, supporting consumer spending. However, incomes were squeezed in the last quarter, causing households to save less to fund their purchases.The amount of income available to households after accounting for inflation and taxes rose at a tepid 0.8% rate in the third quarter, slowing for a brisk 3.1% pace the prior period. The saving rate slowed to a 3.7% rate after increasing 4% in the second quarter.The faster pace of spending was achieved despite a spike in inflation pressures as gasoline prices rose. A price index for personal spending rose at a 1.8% rate, accelerating from the second quarter's 0.7% pace. But a core inflation measure that strips out food and energy costs slowed to a 1.3% rate after rising 1.7% in the prior quarter, suggesting the increase in overall price pressures will be temporary. With about 23 million Americans either out of work or underemployed, there are fears the current pace of spending will not be sustained, especially if gasoline prices maintain their recent upward march and families get a higher tax bill in 2013.The automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts, known as the "fiscal cliff," will drain about $600bn out of the economy next year absent congressional action.Fiscal cliff fears have already hammered business spending, which dropped at a 1.3% pace in the third quarter, falling for the first time since the first three months of 2011.Part of the drag in business investment, which had been a source of strength for the economy, came from equipment and software, where outlays were the weakest since the second quarter of 2009.Spending on nonresidential structures contracted after five straight quarters of growth.In contrast, home building surged at a 14.4% rate, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve's ultra accommodative monetary policy stance, which has driven mortgage rates to record lows.Inventories were a drag on growth because of a drought in the country's Midwest, which has decimated crops. Farm inventories cut 0.42 percentage point from GDP growth. In addition, slowing global demand, particularly weakness in Europe and China, caused US exports to contract for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. That left a trade deficit that weighed on GDP growth.But there was surprisingly good news on government spending, which snapped eight straight quarters of declines on a strong rebound in defense outlays.

China: $4 Trillion in Dirty Money Should Worry Us All

Global Financial Integrity's new report on illicit financial flows from China showed some of the worst numbers that we've ever estimated. Crime, corruption, and tax evasion cost the world's largest country and second-largest economy $3.79 trillion from 2000-2011. To make matters even darker, illicit capital flight is intensifying. In 2011 alone, China lost over $600 billion more than any other single country lost over a ten year period when Global Financial Integrity estimated illicit financial flows from 2000-2009.At first glance, these numbers are so big that it can be difficult to wrap your head around them. Even for a country the size of China, $3.79 trillion is a lot of money. What does this look like in the concrete example? A story in The New York Times this morning reported that close family members of Wen Jiabao, the outgoing Premier of China, have accumulated $2.7 billion in wealth much of it housed offshore. His immediate family was awarded tremendous amounts of money in government contracts. This comes not long after The Wall Street Journal exposed that the wife of Bo Xilai, a rising star governor who was on the verge of being promoted to China's powerful Politburo, was responsible for the murder of a British citizen who helped her family smuggle as much as $1 billion to offshore tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions.Illicit financial flows on a massive scale as captured in the GFI study are how these corrupt billionaires hoard their money. Global Financial Integrity's new report found that in 2010 alone, $213.7 billion of foreign direct investment flowing into China was officially reported to come from the British Virgin Islands population 28,000. This is likely the result of round tripping where Chinese elites launder money through secrecy jurisdictions and back into China in order to disguise its source and is what you would expect wealthy Chinese elites to do if their wealth was earned illegally. However, massive amounts of money are indeed leaving China and not returning. Our report found that of the $2.83 trillion that flowed out of China since 2005, almost $600 billion wound up as deposits or liquid assets in tax havens.This has tremendous implications for the Chinese economy. Our report found that illicit financial flows are increasingly driving inequality in China, and may reflect recent concerns about Chinese elites wishing to leave the country. At some point, something has to give. Crime, corruption, and tax evasion will threaten China's economy, and as a result, the global economy if this trend continues. In the words of our Lead Economist, Dev Kar, "[China's] social, political, and economic order is not sustainable in the long-run given such massive illicit outflows."China has seen massive, world-changing, economic growth over the past three decades. However, corruption is undermining much of this growth. The infrastructure that China is building right now should drive growth, and therefore raise living standards for the Chinese people for a century to come. However, many of the brand new bridges, roads, and modern buildings in China have been plagued by shoddy quality and massive amounts of corruption. Our research suggests that much of this money is flowing out of China.I spent most of my professional life as an entrepreneur in Nigeria, and lived there for 15 years. Despite massive oil wealth and a vibrant, young population, 45% of the population lives below the poverty line. Per-capita GDP has barely risen since I first set foot there in the 1960s. I know far too many people living worse off today than they did decades ago. This is not because the Nigerian economy lacks promise it has huge oil exports, and the country is filled with good, ambitious,entrepreneurial people but because crime, corruption, and tax evasion have torn the country apart.When China is growing at close to 10% every year, China's median citizen sees their life improving despite endemic corruption and illicit outflows. However, there are serious questions for the political and social stability of China's economy if growth slows. Will the median citizen continue to tolerate obvious and tragic corruption on the scale that we are seeing when more modest growth is not improving their living standards? When we say that illicit flows drive inequality, it is because money moved illegally out of the economy hurts your average person. That money can't be spent on schools, infrastructure or basic services. To make matters worse, our prior research finds that illicit flows drive underground economies, resulting in more organized crime, smuggling, and other factors that undermine the Chinese economy.A recent Pew poll suggests the average citizen may be getting restless.  The study released last week found that roughly half of the Chinese public now see corruption and inequality as "very big problems" in their country, a significant spike from 2008 when the poll was last conducted.Still, the world needs to do something about this. Potential political unrest in China affects us all. We make it far too easy for wealthy elites all over the world to stash their money in tax havens, including the United States. The world cannot afford to let China collapse into a pit of corruption and civil unrest.  The result would be a disaster.

NEWS,24.10.2012

Obama and Israel: The Record, the Facts

 

President Obama has been criticized for being wrong for Israel. Even in the third debate of the Presidential campaign, a lovefest toward Israel, which was mentioned 31 times by the candidates, Governor Romney managed to get in a couple jibes against Obama's Israel policy. "I think the tension that existed between Israel and the United States was very unfortunate." He went on to complain that Obama had not visited Israel, inferred that Obama had a poor relationship with the Jewish State, and accused Obama of wanting "to create daylight between ourselves and Israel." Others opposed to the president have even been known to claim that Obama is the worst president for Israel in American history. But history emphatically tells us otherwise. Many presidents saw Israel as a burden and acted accordingly. Truman recognized Israel's existence six minutes after its birth, but also embargoed arms before and during Israel's War of Liberation. Eisenhower, who doubted whether Israel should have even been created, forced Israel to return its gains in the Sinai and Gaza in 1956 by making a variety of threats, including ending tax-deductible gifts to Israel. Ford set up a reassessment of America's Middle East policy in 1975 because he was angry at the Israelis for refusing a proposed disengagement agreement with Egypt. Carter brokered the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, but otherwise endlessly clashed with Israel. George H.W. Bush's secretary of state told Israeli Prime Minister Shamir publicly to phone the White House when he was ready to talk peace, and later denied Israel critical loan guarantees when refugees from the Soviet Union were arriving. There are no similar episodes in Obama's record. Instead, he established the closest working military and intelligence relationship with Israel in the country's history: joint exercises and training, increased security assistance every year, unprecedented advanced technology transfers, doubling of funding for Israel's missile defense system, and assistance in funding for the Iron Dome system that today intercepts rockets headed for Israel. Indeed, in the debate he was emphatic that Israel "is a true friend and our greatest ally in the region," and went on to say later, "I will stand with Israel if they are attacked. And this is the reason why, working with Israel, we have created the strongest military and intelligence cooperation between our two countries in history."More facts. The Obama administration has opposed efforts to boycott or divest from Israel. It backed Israel on the infamous Goldstone Report, the anti-Israel Durban Conference, the Gaza flotilla incident, Palestinian effort to gain recognition as a state, and others. And the U.S. voted with Israel at the UN 100 percent of the time under this administration, a first in modern history.So what's the problem? Certainly, the poor personal relationship between the Israeli and American leaders does not help. But this is not the first time that an American president found an Israeli leader frustrating, yet managed to enhance U.S.-Israeli relations. Ronald Reagan had a number of diplomatic conflicts with Israel the peace process, the U.S. sale of AWACS jets to Saudi Arabia, Israel's attacks against Iraq's nuclear reactor and the Lebanon War yet strengthened security ties with Israel. Like Reagan, Obama has exponentially enhanced U.S.-Israel security cooperation. But unlike Reagan, Obama did not suspend arms transfers to Israel because of a disagreement with its leaders.Recently, the Israeli-American discord has centered on Iran. The president and prime minister disagreed over setting a red line delineating when military action would be taken. But few noticed when the U.S. and Israel quietly resolved the issue, with Netanyahu agreeing to delay action until next year at the earliest and praising the president at the UN for his efforts.In fact, Obama has supported the toughest sanctions on Iran in history, in pursuit of the goal of preventing Teheran for gaining nuclear weapons. In the foreign policy debate, he stated categorically that "...as long as I'm president of the United States Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. I made that clear when I came into office."His statements and actions are far tougher than anything provided by President George W. Bush. Standing with Prime Minister Olmert in Jerusalem in January 2008, Bush could only offer, "I believe it's incumbent upon the American Presidents to solve problems diplomatically. And that's exactly what we're in the process of doing. I believe that pressure economic pressure, financial sanctions will cause the people inside of Iran to have to make a considered judgment about whether or not it makes sense for them to continue to enrich.''For Obama, opposing Iran's nuclear weapons is part of his longstanding opposition to nuclear proliferation. In 2004, even as he opposed the war in Iraq, Obama told The Chicago Tribune editorial board: "The big question is going to be, if Iran is resistant to these pressures, including economic sanctions, which I hope will be imposed if they do not cooperate, at what point are we going to, if any, are we going to take military action?" Admitting that attacking Iran might hurt America's image in the Arab world, he concluded, "On the other hand, having a radical Muslim theocracy in possession of nuclear weapons is worse." Obama's Iran policies have been working, with intensifying sanctions helping to cause accelerating economic chaos, and protests, in Iran, which is today weaker than four years ago. Tehran may have made advances toward a nuclear force, but the costs of that movement are clearer than ever, and the worldwide opposition more determined and tougher. Iran is paying a heavy price for its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and that price will grow higher. There is no argument between Israel and the U.S. on that score.The critics are simply wrong. Obama has been an exceptional supporter of Israel where it counts on the hard-core security and diplomatic issues that provide assistance and protection in a very dangerous region.

Obama, Romney plunge into final 2 weeks

President Barack Obama set off on a marathon, two-day campaign journey on Wednesday  touching down in five states and making an appearance on a popular late-night television programme as he tries to break out of the neck-and-neck race with Republican challenger Mitt Romney with just 13 days left before voters cast their ballots on 6 November.Obama is hammering Romney over his sudden shift to moderate positions both at home and abroad after months of campaigning as a hard-right conservative. Romney, looking to sustain momentum that grew out his overwhelming victory in the first presidential debate three weeks ago, is bashing Obama as a leader who has failed to bring the economy back to full speed after the Great Recession and warning that re-electing the president is a prescription for continuing hard times.Both men are making extraordinary efforts to sway the small pool of undecided voters while imploring their millions of supporters to vote, particularly in key battleground states such as Ohio and Iowa where early voting is already under way.Casting own voteObama planned a short stop in Chicago on Thursday to cast his own vote - the first time an incumbent president has opted for early voting.In remarks to an Iowa newspaper that were released Wednesday, Obama predicted he'll reach agreement with lawmakers to reduce the US deficit in the first six months and overhaul immigration law within the first year of a second term if he's re-elected.His comments to The Des Moines Register were originally off the record, but Obama's campaign agreed to release a transcript under pressure from the newspaper.On immigration, Obama said he'd be blunt since the interview was off the record. He said if he wins a second term, "a big reason" will be because Republicans have "so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community".Battleground statesThe election map has shrunk to no more than nine of the 50 US states, and that's where both candidates will be spending virtually all of their time in the final days before the election.Residents in those so-called battleground states do not reliably vote either Republican or Democrat. The states assume outsized importance because the president is chosen according to state-by-state contests, not the national popular vote.Obama was planning to cover 8 500km on Wednesday in the most-travelled single day of his re-election bid. He was going from Washington to Iowa, Colorado, California and Nevada, and then overnight to Florida. It was the first time Obama was spending the night flying on Air Force One for a domestic trip but far from unprecedented by incumbents scrambling to keep their job.Obama will break for an appearance on the widely watched The Tonight Show with Jay Leno and make calls to voters from the plane.Pace picking upRomney, too, was picking up the pace. He was campaigning on Wednesday in Nevada and Iowa before a three-stop campaign in Ohio on Thursday.Romney told a crowd of 10 000 supporters on Tuesday that Obama's promise of more of the same is "why he's slipping and it's why we're gaining".Obama's campaign insisted that the president was holding on to a slight lead in most of the nine battleground states - Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire"We have the ball, we have the lead," Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod insisted.Obama's challenge is to convince voters who may be hurting financially that he is better qualified to lead the country back to economic prosperity than Romney, who made a fortune as the head of a private equity firm.TrustworthinessObama is trying to capitalise on polls that show voters see him as more trustworthy than Romney. A Washington Post/ABC News poll last week showed 55% of likely voters said Obama is "honest and trustworthy" compared to 47% who felt that way about Romney.The president has spiced his rhetoric with humour to temper his underlying charge - that Romney is lying about what he would do as president."You know me. You know I say what I mean, and I mean what I say," Obama told an Iowa crowd on Wednesday. "With your help, I've kept the commitments that I made."Obama's remarks came after Monday night's third and final presidential debate, where Romney revealed dramatic shifts to the centre on foreign policy and largely expressed agreement with how Obama has conducted US foreign policy.The Obama campaign responded this week to the complaint that the president had, after more than a year of speeches, failed to articulate his second-term vision.
The campaign produced a 20-page booklet called the Blueprint for America's Future outlining his proposals, including spending more on education, boosting US manufacturing jobs and raising taxes on the wealthy.

Berlusconi calls it a day

Italy's Silvio Berlusconi said on Wednesday that he would not run in elections early next year and hand his People of Freedom party over to a successor, ending months of uncertainty over his candidacy."I will not be presenting my candidacy but I will remain at the side of younger people who can play and score goals," said the media magnate, who founded the party in 2009 and is famous for talking politics in football terms.The 76-year-old tycoon, who owns AC Milan football club and three national television channels as well as several private villas, said in a statement that his successor would be appointed by the end of December following a party vote."I still have good muscles and a head on my shoulders, but my role will be to give advice", he said, adding that the vote may take place on 16 December."For the love of Italy one can do crazy and wise things. Eighteen years ago I came onto the scene, a mad move that did not lack wisdom: I now take a step back," the billionaire said, putting to an end speculation over his return.The move came as his scandal-hit PDL party tries to boost its credibility following a series of investigations into misuse of party funds.The former prime minister had retreated from the political frontlines after handing over power in November 2011 to former European competition commissioner Mario Monti amid a parliamentary revolt and a wave of financial market panic.There had been speculation since then as to whether he would try a comeback.The PDL has suffered a series of local election setbacks and is riven by infighting, and many supporters had been urging Berlusconi to return to lead the party in the upcoming elections, set for April next year.Ruby the Heart StealerBerlusconi said it was now up to the party secretary Angelino "Alfano and a new generation of young people to reproduce the miracle of 1994", when the man famed for his love of wild parties was first appointed prime minister.His decision to step aside revealed fears that he could not hope to muster enough support to lead Italy's centre-right to victory.The former premier, who was seen as a blast of fresh air when he burst onto the scene in the 1990s after a period of political corruption and scandal, has been hit hard by his own fraud and sex scandals and has lost many supporters.The PDL has been unable to persuade smaller centrist parties to join forces with them for the upcoming elections despite several attempts at deal-making.Berlusconi will be hoping that a fresh face at the head of the party can help it regain ground in the polls.The former premier has been fighting legal battles for 20 years. Despite some initial convictions for fraud and lingering accusations of alliances with convicted crooks, all cases against him were won on appeal or have expired.He is currently on trial for fraud, bribery and paying for sex with a 17-year-old prostitute nick-named "Ruby the Heart Stealer".The sex trial was one of the last in a series of scandals that helped precipitate the media tycoon's downfall.