'King-maker' Ohio final stop before poll
President Barack Obama and Mitt
Romney stormed into the final day of campaigning before Election Day, on 6
November, once again visiting the toughest battleground state of all - Ohio. The industrial
Midwestern state has picked the winner of the last 12 electionNationwide polls
show the two locked in one of the closest, and most expensive, presidential
races in recent US history.But a majority of polls in the battleground states especially
in Ohio and other Midwestern states of Iowa and Wisconsin show Obama with a
slight advantage. That gives him an easier path to the 270 electoral votes
needed for victory. No Republican has won the White House without carrying
Ohio, and it was possible that Romney would make a last-minute visit to the
state on Election Day.Under the US system, the winner is not determined by the
nationwide popular vote but in state-by-state contests, making nine
"battleground" states that don't consistently vote Republican nor
Democratic extremely important in such a tight race. Winning a state gives
Romney or Obama that state's electoral votes, which are apportioned to states
based on a mix of population and representation in Congress.This year's tight
race raises the possibility of a replay of the chaotic 2000 election, when
Republican George W Bush won the presidency with an electoral vote majority while
Democrat Al Gore had a narrow lead in the nationwide popular vote.Both Obama
and Romney say this year's winner will be determined by which of their
campaigns can get the most supporters to the polls. "This is going to
be a turnout election," the president declared in an interview airing on
Monday. Obama needs the support of blacks and Hispanics to counter Romney's
support among while men, but his campaign knows that the feeling of making
history by electing America's first black president that fired up the 2008
campaign, has cooled.Rock legend Bruce Springsteen and rapper Jay-Z were
joining Obama for Ohio events on Monday."We have one job left," and that's getting
people out to vote, Romney told a Florida crowd on Monday
morning. The crowd chanted, "One more day!"The cost of the
presidential campaign has surged past $2bn.Romney, who described himself as
"severely conservative" during the Republican primary campaign, has
shifted sharply in recent weeks to appeal to the political centre and
highlights what he says was his bipartisan record as governor of Democratic leaning
Massachusetts. He continues to insist that his experience as a businessman would help
fix the still-weak US economy a top issue with voters.Obama has come back from
a weak performance in his first of three debates with Romney last month and
hammered at Romney's shifting positions.The final national Wall Street
Journal Poll, released on Sunday, showed Obama with the support of 48% of
likely voters, with Romney receiving 47%. The poll had a margin of error of
2.55 percentage points.The final national poll from the Pew Research Centre
found Obama with a three-point edge over Romney, 48% to 45% among likely
voters, an improved showing that indicates the president may have benefited
from his handling of the response to last week's Superstorm Sandy. Obama
suspended three full days of campaigning to deal with the East Coast disaster. The
Pew poll had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.If the election were
held now, an Associated Press analysis found that Obama would be all but
assured of 249 electoral votes by carrying 20 states that are solidly
Democratic or leaning his way and the District of Columbia. Romney would lay
claim to 206, from probable victories in 24 states that are strong Republican
ground or tilt toward the Republicans.Up for grabs are 83 electoral votes
spread across Colorado, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Of
those, Republicans and Democrats alike say Obama seems in slightly better shape
than Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney appears to be performing
slightly better than Obama or has pulled even in Virginia and Florida.With
Obama sustaining his lead in Ohio, Romney has made a surprise, last-minute move
in neighbouring Pennsylvania. The state has voted Democratic in the last five
presidential elections and has long been counted in the Obama column. Romney
made his first visit of the fall campaign on Sunday.The theme from the movie
Rocky blared from the loudspeakers as he stepped to the podium in a Philadelphia suburb. "The
people of America understand we're taking back the White House because we're
going to win Pennsylvania," Romney told a large crowd on a cold night.Obama's
campaign said Romney's move in Pennsylvania showed the Republican's desperation
over his diminished chances in Ohio. And the Obama campaign announced that former
president Bill Clinton Obama's most powerful surrogate would make four campaign
stops in Pennsylvania on Monday.About 30 million people have already cast
ballots in 34 states and the District of Columbia, although none will be
counted until Election Day on Tuesday.Storm-hit New York and New Jersey hurried
to make voting accessible in a region where more than 1 million remain without
power. The states, however, are considered by both campaigns to be heavily for
Obama.
Obama and Romney in final voter appeals
The Democratic incumbent, appearing
in Madison, Wisconsin, drew a large crowd that was warmed up by Bruce
Springsteen."Wisconsin, tomorrow you have a choice to make," he said.
"It is a choice between two different visions for America."On the defensive throughout the year for presiding over
persistently high unemployment, Obama said the choice was between the
Republicans' "top-down policies that crashed our economy" and his own
approach to moving the country forward.Romney was in Lynchburg, Virginia, telling voters:
"One final push is going to get us there."We're only one day away
from a fresh start, one day away from the start of a new beginning," he
said.Obama was making stops in three swing states and Romney was hitting
four.Their goal was to piece together the 270 Electoral College votes needed
for victory in the state-by-state battle for the presidency.All eyes were on
the Midwestern state of Ohio, whose 18 electoral votes could be decisive.After
voting early in his home state of Massachusetts, Romney was considering a
last-second visit to Ohio on election day to try to drive turnout,
aides said.The election's outcome will impact a variety of domestic and foreign
policy issues, from the looming "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and
tax increases that could kick in at the end of the year to questions about how
to handle illegal immigration or Iran's nuclear ambitions.The balance of power
in Congress also will be at stake, with Obama's Democrats now expected to
narrowly hold their Senate majority and Romney's Republicans favoured to retain
control of the House of Representatives.In a race where the two candidates and
their party allies raised a combined $US2 billion , the most in US history,
both sides have pounded the heavily contested battleground states with an
unprecedented barrage of ads.The close margins in state and national polls
suggested the possibility of a cliffhanger that could be decided by which side
has the best turnout operation and gets its voters to the polls.In the final
days, both Obama and Romney focused on firing up core supporters and wooing the
last few undecided voters in battleground states.Romney reached out to
dissatisfied Obama supporters from 2008, calling himself the candidate of
change and ridiculing Obama's failure to live up to his campaign
promises."He promised to do so very much but frankly he fell so very
short," Romney said at a rally in Cleveland on Sunday.Obama, citing
improving economic reports on the pace of hiring, argued in the final stretch
that he has made progress in turning around the economy but needed a second
White House term to finish the job."This is a choice between two different
versions of America," Obama said in Cincinnati.Obama will close his
campaign with a final blitz across Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa - three Midwestern
states that, barring surprises elsewhere, would be enough to get him more than
the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.Polls show Obama has slim advantages
in all three. His final stop on Monday night will be in Iowa, the state that
propelled him to the White House in 2008 with a victory in its first-in-the
nation caucus.Romney will visit his must-win states of Florida and Virginia
where polls show he is slightly ahead or tied along with Ohio before concluding
in New Hampshire, where he officially started his presidential run last
year.The only state scheduled to get a visit on Monday US time from both
candidates is Ohio, the most critical of the remaining battlegrounds -
particularly for Romney. He has few paths to victory if he cannot win in Ohio,
where Obama has kept a small but steady lead in polls for months.One in every
eight jobs in Ohio is tied to car manufacturing and Obama has been buoyed in
the state by his support for a federal bailout of the auto industry.Ohio also
has a strong state economy with an unemployment rate lower than the 7.9%
national rate.That has undercut Romney's frequent criticism of Obama's economic
leadership, which has focused on the persistently high jobless rate and what Romney
calls Obama's big-spending efforts to expand government power.Romney, who would
be the first Mormon president, has centered his campaign pitch on his own
experience as a business leader at a private equity fund and said it made him
uniquely suited to create jobs.Obama's campaign fired back with ads criticising
Romney's experience and portraying the multimillionaire as out of touch with
everyday Americans.Obama and allies said Romney's firm, Bain Capital, plundered
companies and eliminated jobs to maximize profits. They also made an issue of
Romney's refusal to release more than two years of personal tax returns.
States that will decide White House race
The White House race
has narrowed to a fight over less than 10 states ahead of Tuesday's tight
election between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.Obama's strategy, with
a final day of campaigning to go, is to solidify his last line of defence in
the industrial Midwest, and to try to pluck away several insurance states from
Romney's target list elsewhere.The Republican challenger trails the president
in polls in many of the battleground states but retains a narrow and plausible
path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.Romney's camp also
argues that the challenger may not even be behind, claiming that state polls
are based on unrealistic assumptions of the size of the Democratic slice of the
electorate and underplay Republican enthusiasm.Here is the state of play in
swing states that will decide whether Obama wins a second term, or Romney
recaptures the White House for Republicans.
The number of electoral votes each state has is in brackets.
Obama's last line of defence
If Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and avoids any upsets on his turf, he is all but certain to become only the second Democrat to win two White House terms since World War II.
Romney spent months trying to tear the president's Midwestern "firewall" but was hampered by an Obama advertising blitz hammering him as a wealthy plutocrat who disdains the middle class.
- Ohio (18)
In most recent polls, Obama led Ohio between two and five points, an ominous sign for Romney, as no Republican since the Civil War has lost the state and gone on to win the White House.
Obama touts his bailout of the indebted auto industry in 2009 and Romney's opposition to it, as one-in-eight jobs in the state are linked to the sector.
His team believes that Romney has undermined his hopes in Ohio by running an ad warning that Chrysler will outsource production of its Jeep vehicles to China, a charge the company's CEO has said is false.
Obama leads an average of polls in Ohio by the website by 2.8%.
- Wisconsin (10)
Wisconsin has been solid Democratic territory for years: the last time a Republican won the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
But Republicans, who managed to repel an attempt by Democrats to oust Governor Scott Walker in a recall election this year, have a solid ground game in the state, and Romney's running mate Paul Ryan is a local boy.
The president leads average by 4.2%.
- Iowa (6)
Where it all started for Obama. The president built his grass roots operation in the agricultural heartland state and believes that after carving out an advantage in early voting, he has the edge on Romney.
Obama leads average in Iowa by 2.5%.
Up for grabs
- Florida (29)
The Sunshine State, the largest electoral battleground, is often decisive in presidential elections, but may not be the kingmaker this time. But Obama is competing fiercely there because if he wins, it is all but impossible for Romney to take the White House.
A punishing foreclosure crisis and an unemployment rate higher than the national average have many analysts expecting Florida to swing to Romney.
Obama has led several recent polls however, and if he can get a bumper turnout in Democratic strongholds in the southern part of the state, he could pull off a surprise.
Romney leads average by 1.4%.
- Virginia (13)
Neither side seem to know whether the state will revert to Republicans after Obama became the first Democrat to win there since 1964. Obama needs to maximize turnout among students, and African American voters around the cities of Richmond and Norfolk.
Romney will count on old school conservatives in rural areas of the state and look to cut down on Obama's margins with educated middle class voters in the Washington DC suburbs.
Currently, Romney leads average by 0.3%.
- North Carolina (15)
The most likely state to move from Democratic to Republican because Obama won it by only 14 000 votes in 2008. Romney aides are certain their man will win, but the Obama camp has mobilised a massive early voting effort, which it says will keep the president competitive into election day.
Romney is up 3.8% in scoreboard.
- Colorado (9)
Romney's best chance to grab a western swing state. Obama is relying on women and Hispanic voters to keep him in the game here and currently heads the RCP average by 0.6%.
- New Hampshire (4)
The flinty northeastern state with an independent streak knows Romney well after he served as governor of neighbouring Massachusetts.
Obama won this state, in 2008 and leads average this year by 1.5%.
May be over
- Nevada (6)
The Obama campaign says it has a substantial lead after early voting which means Romney needs to win big in election day voting.
Obama has a powerbase among Hispanic voters, and his trip to the bowels of a vast Las Vegas casino hotel to greet culinary workers a few weeks ago looks to have paid off.
Obama leads Nevada by 2.8% in average.
Romney's last stand
- Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10)
Romney will make a late swoop into Pennsylvania on Sunday after ignoring the Keystone State for much of the campaign. Democrats say his move shows desperation and recognition that he cannot get to 270 electoral votes elsewhere. Obama leads the RCP average by 3.9%.
Republicans have also made big advertising buys in Democratic states Minnesota, where Obama is up by 5.8 five points, according to RCP and in Michigan where Obama leads by 3.8% in the averages.
Obama aide David Axelrod is so confident that he has offered to shave his trademark moustache if Romney wins any of the trio.
