NEWS,02.11.2012

How many presidential campaign ads is too many?

It's 6:10pm on a Thursday in October, just days before the US elections. Before the clock hits 6.29pm, 11 political ads will have aired on the local NBC channel in Columbus, Ohio.One tells voters that Democratic President Barack Obama has not proposed a legitimate economic plan for the country.Another suggests that policies of Republican candidate Mitt Romney would undermine the future for America's children.Yet another says Romney would effectively deny many women crucial cancer screenings by proposing cuts to Planned Parenthood.The very next ad calls Obama an extremist on abortion who supports leaving babies "out to die."Ohio is being inundated with such dueling ads in the final days before the November 6 presidential election, as Obama and Romney both look to the state's 18 electoral votes as a crucial step toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.The presidential race is now a fight in eight or so politically divided "swing" states, but nowhere more so than Ohio.Amid the chaos of the campaign's closing days, the state has become an arena for credibility-stretching banter, and a testing center for the growing science of political advertising.New research predicts that total spending in this election could reach $US6 billion , making it the most expensive in US history.The campaigns and free-spending independent groups have poured close to $US1 billion into political ads - many of those ads directed at Ohio - and have given analysts a high-profile chance to examine some simmering questions about such ads.Among them: How many ads is too many, before viewers tune them out? And what do campaign ads lead voters to do, exactly?Election-year political ads are a meticulously studied subject, and increasingly are used to target specific groups and encourage specific outcomes.Some research, for example, suggests that pro-Democrat ads are particularly effective at swaying voters' opinions, while pro-Republican ads typically are more effective at getting party supporters to show up at the polls.For all the analysis that has been done on campaign ads, academic and commercial research has yielded few answers on the precise impact that ads have in determining who wins an election.That is especially true, analysts said, in the type of advertising free-for-all that Ohio residents are seeing on their televisions now - wave after wave of ads with overlapping and similarly dark, daunting messages.Campaign ads became tiresome long ago for many Ohio residents, but some viewers figure that the ads must be working, or the campaigns wouldn't keep running them."I think poorly of those ads and don't think they work, but there are so many of them I think it must be not so," said JoAnne Harvey, a Columbus small business owner who, as an undecided female voter, is much coveted by both campaigns.In a reflection of how so many ads can essentially nullify one another, Harvey and another dozen Ohioans interviewed generally could not recall the details of a single campaign ad that stood above the others.Those who could acknowledged that they weren't sure which side the ad was meant to benefit.Political advertising has become a multibillion-dollar market that some television station sales managers predict soon could be a year-round category of advertising.It has become increasingly sophisticated in "micro-targeting," the art of going after specific groups of viewers.For example, Democrats have been found to be more frequent television watchers than Republicans, and Democrats candidates in 2008 ran more than twice as many ads as Republicans during science-fiction shows, reality dating programs and telenovelas, according to research by Washington State University professor Travis Ridout and others.Those programs as well as talk shows and court shows tended to skew Democratic in viewership while crime and sports programs skewed Republican, Ridout's study found.But does the science of political advertising work?One study completed last month found Obama's ads moving voters away from Romney, while Romney's ads were much more likely to encourage Republicans to vote, rather than shift preferences among voters.The findings were based on a survey of more than 2,300 registered voters who said they were independents or not deeply committed to one party.They were shown one or several of the campaigns' ads by the research software company Qualtrics and the research firm Evolving Strategies."Romney doesn't seem to have a lot of ability to have people moving in and out of the independent pool, but he has a lot of room to change the equation in determining who turns out to vote," said Adam Schaeffer of Evolving Strategies.If the targets of this year's ads are any guide, the presidential election will be decided by middle-aged and older white women, according to a survey of more than 1,000 buying agencies done by STRATA, a software firm whose systems help air some $US50 billion worth of ads a year.The question is whether the barrage of ads - the vast majority of them attacking a candidate, rather than promoting one will become so overwhelming that they provoke a backlash.Such ads "did work on me at first, and then I became a lot more cynical and realized that a lot of it is political warfare," said Harvey, who added that she voted for Obama in 2008 but was leaning toward Romney now."It seems almost epidemic; they can't stop now that they've started."A rule of thumb in advertising is that an ad needs to be viewed at least three times and up to 10 to be effective, said STRATA Chief Executive John Shelton."There's no question that once you start to go over (10), you start to, well, at least bore people," he said. "Then they might tune out. Then they might actually get ticked off."Barbara Berry, a healthcare professional and Obama supporter from Columbus, said she pre-records TV programs and skips ads."I don't pay attention anymore," she said.Since late August, more than 915,000 presidential campaign ads have aired on broadcast and national cable TV, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. In Columbus during October, ads by the campaigns and outside groups aired more than 7,000 times."Some of them just disappear in the noise," said Dan Bradley, general manager at the Columbus NBC affiliate WCMH-TV.Each presidential campaign has been producing about a dozen new ads a week, basing them on daily news events a practice that ensures that most of the ads have a short shelf life.Romney in particular tends to place and replace ads at the spur of the moment, often in response to the news of the day.Obama's campaign runs two ad tracks: one that changes every one or two days, the other every couple of weeks.Ads this year "just seem to be rushed," said John Geer, a political ad researcher at Vanderbilt University.It's "almost like they've fallen prey to the fact that the campaigns have so much money, and the ability to make all these ads."

New York fuel 'panic' grows even as ports open

A third day of "panic buying" of gasoline among Sandy-struck New York area motorists on Friday has prompted action from authorities.The US government waived the Jones Act barring foreign-flagged vessels from carrying fuel between US ports in a bid to boost supplies from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he would temporarily lift tax and registration requirements on tankers docking in the New York Harbor, which had just reopened to oil vessels.While the waivers sent benchmark New York gasoline futures 2% lower, they will do little to address the biggest obstacle to getting fuel to consumers: the power outages that have shut nearly two-thirds of the service stations in the New Jersey and New York City area and are still hindering service at major oil terminals and refineries along the harbour.Faced with the prospect of another day of hunting for fuel or losing out on business, New York City cab driver Mohammad Sultan parked his yellow taxi at a Hess station on Coney Island Avenue, Brooklyn at midnight on Thursday so he could be first in line when a rumoured fuel shipment arrived at 6 am.At 9 am with 180 vehicles behind him, the pumps were still empty. Officials said the number of cabs on the road by Friday morning was down 24% from last week."Because of the gas problem, there are thousands of yellow cabs sitting around wasting time and money," Sultan said.There were some signs that the complex New York Harbor network of storage tanks and pipelines was finally returning to service after Sandy dealt it a direct hit, crippling the ability to fuel the nation's most dense consumer population.The region's biggest pipeline, Colonial, restarted much of its northern line, and an oil tanker carrying 2 million gallons of gasoline docked overnight in Newburgh, New York, 60 miles north of New York city. Other ships were finally offloading cargoes in the harbor after being stuck at anchor for the past week.But those measures were cold comfort for residents stuck in hours-long queues, often with no guarantee that supplies would be available when they got to the front of the line or that enough power would be restored to get more stations open.The situation is wearing on New Yorkers. Juliana Smith, a full-time student, spent 2-1/2 hours in line to fill two five-gallon containers on Friday, an hour more than on Thursday."It's psychotic," she said. "People are angry. We have no power. No heat. We need gas for the generator and our Ford Explorer, which is a monster."Prices at the pump have remained steady despite the shortages, motorist group AAA said, averaging just below $4 a gallon in New York City, 2 cents lower than last week.However, on Long Island, where only a third of all stations were working, average gasoline prices jumped 5 cents from a day earlier.But online, Craigslist users started offering gasoline at as much as $15 a gallon to motorists and homeowners not wishing to brave the lines.There were signs the situation could improve in the coming days as wholesale markets begin to work again.Colonial Pipeline, a 5,500-mile (8,900-km) network that runs from the Gulf Coast refining center up the eastern seaboard, said late on Thursday it had resumed fuel deliveries at its Linden facility in New Jersey, the terminus of the line.It expects to pump around 700,000 barrels a day into the area, which is a normal volume, spokesman Steve Baker said.Fuel barge shipments into New York Harbor will be allowed on Friday, the Coast Guard said, if they have a place to offload.Environmental Protection Agency waivers for clean diesel and gasoline specifications, granted earlier this week, should make it easier for suppliers to meet demand in the days ahead.News of the Jones Act waiver sent NYMEX gasoline prices sharply lower. The December RBOB contract fell 6 cents, or 2.3%, to close at $2.5736 a gallon, just below where it was trading last week prior to Sandy's arrival.Rates to charter fuel tankers to the Northeast nearly doubled as traders scrambled to sell to the region, where supplies were constricted by the closure of two New Jersey refineries that make up one-third of the region's capacity.The Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, known as "the gasoline machine" by oil traders, may be shut for weeks due to flood damage, although the company has said internally it is "optimistic of restarting soon," a source familiar with operations said. The company has said that a decision on when to reopen will be made "once all assessments are complete."Phillips' Linden fuel terminal was supplying only emergency response vehicles as of Friday afternoon.

Obama, Romney return to attack

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney went back on the attack on Thursday, breaking a storm-induced campaign truce to hit the road and pound home their closing messages in the final stretch of a tight battle for the White House.With five days left until Tuesday's election, Obama received an endorsement from New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, resurrected his 2008 "change" slogan and said he was the only candidate who had actually fought for it.Romney criticised Obama as a lover of big government who would expand the federal bureaucracy.National polls show the race deadlocked, and Obama and Romney will spend the final days in eight swing states that will decide who wins the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.Obama made Wisconsin the first stop on a four-state swing on Thursday that also took him to rallies in Nevada and Colorado before going to Ohio for the night. Romney had a full day of campaigning across Virginia."You may be frustrated at the pace of change, but you know what I believe, you know where I stand," Obama told a crowd of 2 600 people on an airport tarmac in Wisconsin, a state that is a vital piece of his electoral strategy. "I know what change looks like because I've fought for it."At a rally in Doswell, Virginia, Romney criticised Obama's comment that he would like to consolidate government agencies that deal with business issues in a new department under a secretary of business."I don't think adding a new chair to his Cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street," Romney said.Jobs will again be the focus of fierce debate on Friday when the government releases the unemployment figures for October. Any big change from the 7.8% number in September could potentially sway voters.Obama and Romney had put campaigning on hold for several days as the historic storm Sandy pounded the eastern seaboard, leaving a trail of destruction and forcing Obama to turn his attention to storm relief.That pause produced some unexpected political benefits for Obama, who won warm praise from Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Romney supporter, and he spent days directing federal relief efforts in a show of presidential leadership that largely sidelined Romney.New York's Bloomberg a Republican-turned-independent who did not back a candidate in 2008 endorsed Obama and cited the Democrat's record on climate change, an issue that has gained more attention since the storm.Bloomberg said Obama had taken significant steps to reduce carbon consumption, while Romney had backtracked on earlier positions he took as governor of Massachusetts to battle climate change. Obama said he was "honoured" by the backing of Bloomberg, who flirted with White House runs in the past.On their first day back on the trail, both Obama and Romney returned to political attacks but struck a slightly more positive tone than usual in trying to woo undecided voters and push their own supporters to vote.In Doswell, Romney proclaimed his faith in the future and said, "The American people have what it takes to come out of these tough times."In Wisconsin, Obama drew distinctions with Romney but dropped his usual reference to "Romnesia" the term he uses to describe what he calls Romney's tendency to shift positions.Obama has a somewhat easier path to 270 electoral votes than Romney, fueled primarily by a small but steady lead in the vital battleground of Ohio a crucial piece of any winning scenario for either candidate - and slight leads in Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.Barring any surprises elsewhere, Obama can win a second term by capturing the Midwestern bastions of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and his schedule was aimed at shoring up his safety net there.Obama plans to visit Ohio on each of the last four days of the campaign, and plans two more trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. He will conclude his campaign on Monday night with rock singer Bruce Springsteen in Iowa, where a 2008 caucus win launched his run to the presidency.So far, Obama has planned just one visit each in the final days to Florida and Virginia, where most polls give Romney a slight lead. Romney will hit Wisconsin and Ohio on Friday, and New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado on Saturday.Romney plans to finish up his campaign on Monday night in New Hampshire, the state where he launched his bid last year.Romney's campaign has aired ads in recent days in the Democratic-leaning states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, hoping to put them in play after polls showed the races tightening but Obama still ahead.The campaign said Romney would visit Pennsylvania on Sunday, marking his first campaign visit since the nominating convention to one of his new target states. A win in Pennsylvania would be a crippling blow to Obama, but most public polls still show Obama leading there.Romney aides said the moves into those three new states were a sign of their growing momentum, although Obama aides described them as a desperate ploy to find new paths to 270 electoral votes.A  online poll on Thursday showed the race remained effectively deadlocked, with Obama at 47% to Romney's 46%. Most national polls showed roughly similar results.Most swing-state polls have found Obama clinging to slender leads in five of the eight most heavily contested states - Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. In most polls, Romney has a slight lead in Florida, while Virginia and Colorado were effectively tied.Online poll on Thursday showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Virginia, and 2-point leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida. Romney led by 1 point in Colorado in the polls.

NEWS,21.10.2012

Britain set to officially exit recession

Britain was this week set to confirm its official exit from a deep recession, although a return to growth would fail to signal a rosy future for the country's fragile economy, according to analysts.Economists' consensus forecast is for Britain, which is not part of the eurozone, to have returned to growth in the third quarter, or July-September period, after falling into a double-dip recession in late 2011.Positive retail sales data published last week added to market belief that British gross domestic product (GDP) had turned positive heading into 2013.All will be revealed on Thursday, when the Office for National Statistics publishes its first estimate of third-quarter GDP."The release of the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter should see the UK officially exit recession after three quarters of contraction," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight research group.But he warned: "The UK still has a very tough job in developing significant sustainable growth given tighter fiscal policy, ongoing serious problems in the eurozone and generally soft global growth."In addition, there are still significant pressures facing consumers that are likely to limit the upside for their spending for some time to come," Archer added, citing rising inflation on higher energy and food prices and an uncertain jobs outlook despite recent positive employment figures as some of the reasons.British annual inflation slowed to almost a three-year low at 2.2% in September, recent official data showed, but analysts warned that recent domestic energy price hikes would reverse the decline over the coming months.With inflation falling for now, the Bank of England has left the door open for more stimulus in the form of quantitative easing (QE).The bank's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has underpinned the British economy with a total of £375bn in new money since March 2009."With any recovery currently looking feeble and fragile, we lean towards the view that a majority of MPC members will decide to give the economy a further helping hand in November through more quantitative easing," said Archer.Under QE, the central bank creates new cash which is used to purchase assets such as government and corporate bonds to increase lending by retail banks and boost economic activity.Double-dip recessionBritain escaped a deep downturn in late 2009 but fell back into recession at the end of 2011. The recent London Olympics and celebrations to mark Queen Elizabeth II's Diamond Jubilee on the British throne failed to deliver a major boost to growth."The economy is likely to continue to underperform in coming quarters, with roughly zero real GDP growth over 2012-13 combined," said Citi analyst Michael Saunders.The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government blames Britain's economic ills on the debt crisis in main trading partner the eurozone and on the high level of debt inherited from the previous Labour administration.But the main opposition Labour party claims that Britain's downturn is mainly a result of rapid and hefty cuts to state spending by the coalition that have resulted in thousands of job losses across the civil service.British GDP contracted by 0.4% in the second quarter after shrinking by 0.3% in the first - and by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2011."The UK data week ahead may well prove to be noteworthy with UK third-quarter GDP figures... set to have a plus sign in front of them for the first time since the third quarter of 2011," said Victoria Clarke, an analyst at Investec financial group."Indeed, we expect that the forthcoming release... to show UK GDP having risen by 0.6% on the quarter, its strongest showing since the third quarter of 2010."

Troubles grow in Spain banking rescue

Spain seems condemned to pay for its own banking rescue after Germany flatly refused to let the eurozone's future bank supervisor do so, analysts say.That is bad news for Spain's soaring public debt.But it is only one of a series of concerns now emerging from a eurozone bailout of Spain's banks, which have been bogged down with bad loans since a 2008 property crash, diplomatic sources and analysts say.Madrid had battled for a eurozone banking supervisor to be allowed to pump capital directly into its weak banks as part of a planned banking union for the 17-member single currency bloc.That would have relieved Spain of the need to pay back an estimated €40bn it plans to use from a €100bn eurozone credit line.But German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who faces general elections next year, left no room for doubt about her position on direct recapitalisation for banks that have already been bailed out."There will not be a retroactive direct recapitalisation," she said on Friday after a European Union summit, which agreed to work on setting up a eurozone banking union with supervisory powers during 2013.A French government source said the question of direct aid for Spain's banks was not settled.But after the EU summit, a European diplomat was clear: "Spanish banks won't be recapitalised before the end of 2013, probably in 2014."That would leave Spain holding the bill for the rescue loan, which was agreed with the eurozone in June and signed in July."Spain is going to ask for about €40bn from the liquidity line," said Daniel Pingarron, analyst at Spanish brokerage IG Markets. "That means the Spanish public debt grows automatically."In fact, Spain's 2013 budget already takes into account a payment of €30bn for the banking fix, pushing the level of public debt to 90.5% of gross domestic product from an expected 85.3% this year.But the banking rescue is also running into other serious problems, analysts say.Another European diplomatic source said Madrid was balking at the eurozone's insistence that investors in stricken banks' subordinated debt and preference shares take losses before any bailout.'There's a stalemate'This is particularly sensitive in Spain where the banks sold billions of euros in preference shares to ordinary customers, many of whom believed the complex instruments were a form of savings."There is a stalemate here," said Edward Hugh, an economist based in Barcelona.Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative government and the eurozone authorities were at odds over the preference shares because of Madrid's reluctance to force the bank clients to lose their savings, he said.At the same time, the two sides seemed to be struggling over the implementation of a "bad bank", created to mop up the bad assets held by commercial banks and then to sell them to investors, he said.Latest data show more than one in 10 Spanish bank loans has gone bad, a new record.The Spanish bad bank is set to launch on November 19 under the name of SAREB with a formal ceiling of €90bn in so-called toxic assets, an economy ministry official said.But the key unresolved question is how to value the bad assets.The lower the price, the easier it is to attract investors. But a low price also could push up bank losses and force the Spanish government to pump in yet more money.With the cost of the bailout being added to Spanish debt under the existing accords, Madrid is trying to handle the bailout "on a shoestring," Hugh said."Europe is pressing them obviously for a lower price and is pressing them to do the preference shares but Spain seems to telling them to go and walk," the analyst said.In any case, Hugh said, the final cost of the banking bailout is likely to rise."At some stage there is obviously going to be more," he said.Indeed, Moody's Investors Service estimated this month that the Spanish banks would require between €70bn and €105bn.If the cost of the banking bailout was €40bn, or four percent of Spanish GDP, then Spain may be able to handle it, Hugh said. But more capital eventually will be needed, he warned."The story has not ended yet."

Wealthy Presidential Campaign Donors Driving The Election

 

Individual donors to U.S. presidential candidates can contribute up to $2,500 for the state-by-state party nominating contests and another $2,500 for the general election. But independent groups called Super PACs have no limits on what they can raise from individuals, corporations or labor unions.

Here is a look at wealthy individuals who have contributed at least $1 million to the major "super" political action committees as disclosed to the Federal Election Commission.


RESTORE OUR FUTURE

Total raised as of Sept. 30: $110.5 million

(Supports Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney)

* Bob Perry - Houston builder who was a major donor to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a group that helped undermine 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by attacking his Vietnam War record. Total donations: $10 million

* Sheldon Adelson - billionaire Las Vegas casino magnate who built the Venetian hotel and casino. Donation: $5 million

* Miriam Adelson - Sheldon's wife. Donation: $5 million

* Bill Koch - brother of conservative financiers David and Charles Koch. He runs Oxbow Carbon, a Florida-based firm that is also a donor and shares its address with another contributor, Huron Carbon. Total donations, including through firms: $4 million

* Steven Lund - runs Nu Skin, a Utah skin care and cosmetics company whose former executives have been linked to two other firms that share an address in Provo, Utah, and donated to the Super PAC: F8 LLC and Eli Publishing. Lund's wife Kalleen is also a donor. Total donations from the Lunds and firms: $3 million

* Julian Robertson - hedge fund industry legend at Tiger Management. Total donations: $1.3 million

* Crow Holdings - Dallas-based investment firm managing the wealth of the family of the late Dallas real estate mogul Trammell Crow, whose sons Harlan and Trammell S. Crow are also donors. Total Crow Holdings and Crow donations: $1.3 million

* Harold Simmons - billionaire Dallas banker and CEO of Contran Corp who has contributed to PACs supporting Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Donations: $1.3 million

* Frank VanderSloot - Idaho businessman who runs the nutritional and cosmetics company Melaleuca. The firm and its subsidiaries have also donated. Total donations: $1.1 million

* The Villages of Lake Sumter - a community in Florida run by billionaire Gary Morse, who is also a donor alongside his wife Renee and their several children. Along with the Morse family, thirteen companies controlled wholly or partially by Morse that share an address in The Villages have also contributed. Total donations of all: $1.7 million.

* Kenneth Griffin - Chicago-based hedge fund manager and CEO of Citadel LLC. Total donations: $1.1 million

* Bob Parsons - billionaire founder of web hosting giant Go Daddy. Donation: $1 million

* Jim Davis - chairman of New Balance Athletic Shoes Inc. Donations: $1 million

* Stanley Herzog - CEO of Missouri-based Herzon Contracting Corp. Donation: $1 million

* Bruce Kovner - billonaire hedge fund manager at Caxton Alternative Management. Donation: $1 million

* Rocco Ortenzio - Pennsylvania healthcare executive and founder of Select Medical Corp. Total donations: $1 million

* John Childs - founder of private equity firm J.W. Childs Associates LP in Florida. Donation: $1 million

* Edward Conard - a New York investor and former executive at Bain Capital, a private equity firm co-founded by Romney. Donation: $1 million

* John Kleinheinz - Texas hedge fund manager for Kleinheinz Capital Partners Inc. Donation: $1 million

* J.W. Marriott Jr. - chairman and CEO of Marriott International, brother of Richard. Total donations: $1 million

* Richard Marriott - chairman of Host Marriott International. Total donations: $1 million

* Robert McNair - owner of the Houston Texans football team. Donation: $1 million.

* Robert Mercer - New York hedge fund manager at Renaissance Technologies. Donation: $1 million

* John Paulson - a prominent New York hedge fund manager at Paulson and Co. Donation: $1 million

* Rooney Holdings Inc - private investment firm formed in 1980s to acquire the Manhattan Construction Co. and has since expanded into many areas. Total donations: $1 million

* Paul Singer - hedge fund manager who helped fund efforts to legalize gay marriage in New York. Donation: $1 million

* Paul and Sandra Edgerly - Paul Edgerly of Brookline, Massachusetts, is an executive at Bain. The Edgerlys each have given $500,000. Total donations: $1 million

* Steven Webster - private equity executive at Avista Capital in Houston. Total donations: $1 million

* Robert Brockman - executive at Reynolds and Reynolds, a Dayton, Ohio-based car dealership support company that shares a P.O. Box with CRC Information Systems Inc, Fairbanks Properties LLC and Waterbury Properties LLC, which split the donation three ways. Total donations: $1 million

* Miguel Fernandez - chairman of MBF Healthcare Partners, a private equity firm. MBF Family Investments also donated to the Super PAC. Total donations: $1 million

* Renco Group Inc. - owned by New York billionaire Ira Rennert, another frequent contributor to Republicans this year. Donation: $1 million

* OdysseyRe Holdings Corp - reinsurance underwriting company in Stamford, Connecticut that is a U.S. subsidiary of Toronto-based Fairfax Financial. Donation: $1 million


PRIORITIES USA ACTION

Total raised as of Sept. 30: $50.1 million

(Supports Democratic President Barack Obama)

* James Simons - billionaire hedge fund manager, founder of Renaissance Technologies Corp. Donation: $3.5 million

* Fred Eychaner - founder of Newsweb Corp. Donation: $3.5 million

* Jeff Katzenberg - chief executive of DreamWorks Animation. Donation: $3 million

* Steve Mostyn - Houston attorney. Donation: $2 million

* Irwin Mark Jacobs - former CEO of Qualcomm Inc. Donation: $2 million

* Jon Stryker - billionaire activist and heir to the medical supply company fortune of his grandfather. Donation: $2 million

* Anne Cox Chambers - billionaire daughter of James M. Cox, founder of Cox Enterprises. Total donations: $1.5 million

* National Air Traffic Controllers Association - union representing more than 16,000 workers. Donation: $1.3 million

* S. Daniel Abraham - billionaire creator of Slim-Fast brand, chairman of S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace. Donation: $1.2 million

* Barbara Stiefel - retiree in Coral Gables, Florida. Donation: $1.1 million

* United Auto Workers - Donations through various funds: $1.1 million

* Kareem Ahmed - chief executive at Landmark Medical Management in California. Donation: $1 million

* David Boies, Jr - New York lawyer. Donation: $1 million

* Morgan Freeman - Hollywood actor. Donation: $1 million

* Amy Goldman - writer and heiress to the New York real estate fortune of Sol Goldman. Donation: $1 million

* Franklin Haney - owner and CEO of FLH Company, a Washington-based real estate company. Donation: $1 million

* Bill Maher - stand-up comedian. Donation: $1 million

* Mel Heifetz - real estate developer and gay activist. Donation: $1 million

* Michael Snow - Minnesota lawyer. Donation: $1 million.

* Steven Spielberg - film director. Donation: $1 million.

* Ann Wyckoff - Seattle philanthropist. $1 million.

* Service Employees International Union Committee on Political Education - union representing more than 2 million workers. Donation: $1 million.

* United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry - union representing some 340,000 workers. Total donations: $1 million


AMERICAN CROSSROADS

Total raised as of Sept. 30: $68 million

(Supports Republican candidates for federal offices)

* Harold Simmons - Total donations together with Contran Corp: $15.5 million

* Bob Perry - Total donations: $6.5 million

* Robert Rowling - an Irving, Texas, businessman and a conservative and active Republican donor. His company, TRT Holdings Inc, which runs Omni Hotel and Gold's Gym chains, is also a donor. Total donations: $4 million

* Joe Craft - billionaire coal executive from Tulsa, Oklahoma, and CEO of Alliance Holdings, which is also a donor. Total donations: $2.1 million

* Jerry Perenchio Living Trust - a trust of billionaire television tycoon A. Jerrold Perenchio, who is a former chairman of Spanish-language broadcaster Univision. Donation: $2 million

* Crow Holdings - Dallas-based real estate investment firm. Total donations: $1.5 million

* Weaver Holdings and Weaver Popcorn - Indiana-based company specializing in popcorn. Total contributions: $1.9 million

* Stephens Inc - a Little Rock, Arkansas, broker dealer. Total donations: $1.3 million

* Armstrong Group - telecommunications conglomerate in Pennsylvania. Donation: $1.3 million

* JWC III Revocable Trust - Donatoin: $1.3 million

* Robert Brockman - executive at Ohio-based Reynolds and Reynolds. Similarly to Restore Our Future, three firms sharing a P.O. Box - CRC Information Systems Inc, Fairbanks Properties LLC and Waterbury Properties LLC - split the donation three ways. Total donations: $1 million

* Whiteco Industries - Indiana-based company involved in advertising, construction, entertainment and hotels. Donation: $1 million

* The Mercury Trust - entity linked to California private equity firm of Saul Fox. Donation: $1 million

* Clayton Williams Energy Inc - Midland, Texas-based drilling company. Donation: $1 million

* Jay Bergman - of PETCO Petroleum Corporation. Donation: $1 million

* Kenneth Griffin - Citadel Investment Group chief executive. Total donations: $1 million

* Wayne Hughes - Founder of Public Storage. Total donations: $1 million

* John Childs - Chairman and CEO of Boston-based JW Childs Associates. Total donations: $1 million

* Philip Geier - New York executive. Total donations: $1 million

* Irving Moskowitz - a Florida bingo magnate who runs a charity in California and is known for his support of Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem. Donation: $1 million

* Robert Mercer - co-CEO of hedge fund Renaissance Technologies. Donation: $1 million (Reporting by Patrick Temple-West, Alexander Cohen and Alina Selyukh; editing by Todd Eastham)

NEWS,23.08.2012

Global economy slips into dire straits

The eurozone is on track for its second recession in three years, China's once booming manufacturing sector is contracting at a faster pace than previously reported, and the United States is widely seen as struggling to keep up its pace of growth.Business surveys released on Thursday painted a global picture of economic malaise from Beijing to Berlin.The eurozone economy will shrink around 0.5% in the current quarter as the economic rot is even spreading through Germany, the region's largest and strongest economy, Markit's Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) suggested.It came on the heels of the HSBC Flash China manufacturing PMI falling to 47.8 for August, its lowest level since November and well down from July's final figure of 49.3.Growth in the United States manufacturing sector is also expected to have slowed in August. U.S. data due at 12:58 GMT."The indicators taken as a whole indicate a material slowdown in the pace of the world economy," said economist Philip Shaw at Investec.The eurozone composite PMI, which measures manufacturing and services together, was actually slightly better than a month earlier, nudging up to 46.6 and just pipping forecasts for it to hold steady at July's 46.5. But was still its seventh month in a row below 50, the dividing line between contraction and growth."August's flash eurozone PMI does nothing to challenge the notion that the single currency area is now firmly in recession," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.More worryingly, the downturn in smaller eurozone economies is clearly taking root in the core. The flash composite PMI for Germany fell to a three-year low, a fourth straight month of contraction.German economic growth slowed to 0.3% in the second quarter on a sharp drop in investment, adding to evidence that it can no longer be relied on to pull the eurozone out of a deep slump, data showed earlier on Thursday. "Another reminder that a chronic lack of economic growth in the eurozone will continue to impede efforts to bring the debt crisis to an end," Loynes said.The eurozone economy shrank by 0.2% in the three months to June, according to official data. Economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a similar outcome for the current quarter, with no growth until the start of next year. Falling demand from debt-ridden Europe, China's single biggest export market, has put the Chinese economy under pressure, with the ripples now being felt across the world."It's very hard to put a positive spin on anything within the (China) data. Bottom line - a very poor update," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank In Sydney.Japan said on Wednesday that exports slumped the most in six months in July as shipments to Europe and China tumbled. Exports from Taiwan, a key part of the global technology supply chain, fell for a fifth straight month in July and South Korea, home to major car makers, computer chip and flat-screen producers, recorded its sharpest export fall in July in nearly three years.Six consecutive quarters of slowing Chinese growth have also taken a toll on commodities markets, with falling prices and an uncertain outlook prompting miner BHP Billiton to shelve a $20bn expansion project in Australia."Today's PMI report is a clear reminder that the slowdown is not yet over and that the Chinese economy is still too shaky to recover without ongoing policy stimuli," said Nikolaus Keis at UniCredit. "The pressure on the Chinese authorities to further step up their policy accommodation is therefore growing."China has been fine tuning policies to keep growth on track without releasing curbs on the property sector.In contrast central banks in the developed world have slashed interest rates to near zero and injected trillions of dollars into the money supply in efforts to support growth.The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.5% when it meets next week, but analysts say that will do little to stimulate lending. The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another round of monetary stimulus "fairly soon" unless the economy improves considerably, minutes from the U.S. central bank's latest meeting suggested.

Venezuela Elections 2012: Chavez Has Money Edge In Presidential Race

Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles typically runs his presidential campaign by jogging through Venezuela's small towns, reaching out to supporters with both hands and climbing aboard the back of a flatbed truck to speak to hundreds of people.By contrast, President Hugo Chavez brings large sound trucks, a production team and a fleet of buses that carry supporters and government employees to plazas to cheer him on by the thousands.A little more than a month ahead of Venezuela's Oct. 7 election, Chavez enjoys clear advantages over his challenger in campaign funding and media access. While neither campaign has revealed how much it's spending, Capriles says he is in a "David vs. Goliath" contest, facing a well-financed incumbent backed by an even richer government."We're fighting against two checkbooks. There's no way to compete economically speaking," said Rafael Guzman, who is in charge of finances for the opposition coalition. He accused the government of using money from the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, and a separate development fund, Fonden, to support Chavez's campaign and bankroll projects aimed at boosting his support.Chavez's allies say Capriles is being backed by business tycoons including fugitive bankers who have fled the country and oppose the president. Chavez's camp hasn't provided details of those accusations.The law does not limit individual campaign contributions, though Guzman says the Capriles campaign caps donations it receives at a maximum of 2,000 bolivars ($465), even though people can make many such donations. He said all have come from individuals, none from companies."We aren't receiving anything from businesses," Guzman said.So far, Capriles' campaign doesn't look like it's rolling in wealth. It has even taken to holding raffles, fundraising dinners and weekend street fairs selling used clothes and donated food.Judith Beltran recently browsed through stands selling landscape paintings, handbags, underwear and used baby clothes at Caracas' Petare slum, holding a bagful of clothes she'd just purchased."I came because they're selling everything cheap and also to help out Capriles," she said.Meanwhile, Chavez's face smiles down from innumerable billboards and signs festooned on lampposts throughout Caracas and other cities, far more than Capriles' campaign has managed.There's no spending limit on such advertising, but the law limits campaigns to just three minutes of paid TV ads a day, and Capriles' backers say there's no clear line between Chavez's campaign ads and the much more frequent government promotional spots showing the president doling out apartments to the needy.The law doesn't prevent Chavez from using his power as president to take over programming on all of the country's TV channels and radio stations for his speeches, something he does regularly.Chavez and his allies say he's merely governing, not wielding any campaign edge that could be considered unfair."Hugo Chavez's advantage (is) in his power of communicating with his people," his campaign manager, Jorge Rodriguez, said last month.Rodriguez on Wednesday also denied that Chavez has an edge in airtime, saying much of the coverage by private TV channels and radio stations favors Capriles.In a recent televised appearance for the opening of a state-run supermarket, Chavez tried to differentiate his roles as president and candidate. "I'm complying with an obligation to inform the public," he said."I am going to say what I'm going to say very carefully. It shouldn't be interpreted as campaigning," Chavez said. Chavez then responded to criticism by Capriles and other adversaries that he is giving away Venezuela's oil wealth through preferential deals with allies.Chavez's socialist party, for its part, insists it uses no public funds and gets its money from supporters. It held a raffle last week with prizes that included a new car, motorcycles and appliances. Some Chavez opponents called for electoral officials to investigate that raffle, saying public employees had reported that they were forced to buy tickets.Venezuelan election law requires candidates to provide detailed monthly financial reports to electoral officials, but the National Electoral Council generally doesn't publicly release financial figures during the campaign.Neither the Chavez nor Capriles campaign revealed how much money they've raised when asked. Chavez's campaign didn't respond to requests for comment, and officials in Capriles' campaign said it was unable to provide a figure.Venezuelan election law also prohibits campaign donations from government entities, foreign donors and companies that are contracted to provide public services.Venezuela is atypical in Latin America in that it doesn't provide public financing for campaigns or political parties, said Jennifer McCoy, director of the Americas program at the Carter Center. She has directed past election-monitoring missions in Venezuela and other countries."Because there's no regulated public financing, then that means that all of the sources of money are private or undisclosed, and so it's very difficult to assess how much each side is spending and where the money comes from," McCoy said in an interview during a visit to Caracas."I really have no idea how much each side is spending," she said, "but in terms of the opportunities particularly for the media presence and the opportunities for providing benefits to voters, certainly an incumbent government – and this incumbent government – has an advantage."The opposition has complained that Chavez has abused his presidential authority by taking over the airwaves, but the National Election Council has taken no action on the matter. Four of the council's five members are Chavez allies or widely perceived as favoring the president.Vicente Diaz, the one council member often openly critical of the government, said in an interview that a candidate such as Capriles is essentially running "against the state.""It's not fair," Diaz said, but added that "the popular will is respected, and the one who has the votes is going to win."