Showing posts with label economist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economist. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

NEWS,10 AND 11.06.2013



New London finance jobs rise 20%


The number of job vacancies in London's financial services sector rose 20% between April and May as employers took comfort from more stable financial markets, a recruiter said on Monday.
Job vacancies in one of the world's top financial centres rose to 6 426 last month, up from 5 355 in April, according to Morgan McKinley's London Employment Monitor.
London's banks and financial services companies have slashed thousands of jobs in recent years following a wave of banking scandals and a protracted period of economic weakness. However, the sector still employs over 1 million people in Britain and contributes almost 10% of gross domestic product, according to TheCityUK, which promotes UK financial services.
The May employment monitor results showed confidence about the potential for business growth was steadily returning, Hakan Enver, operations director at Morgan McKinley Financial Services, said in a statement.
"As we approach the mid-year point, we have seen less volatility both in the financial markets and also in the wider global economy. Although the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic issues, sentiment has slowly been improving since the start of the year," Enver said.
However, the number of job opportunities appearing in May was almost 60 percent lower than in May 2012. Enver said this reflected the impact of the large scale redundancies made last year, which have outweighed the number of roles becoming available, and a trend for filling vacancies internally.
The survey, based on Morgan McKinley's weekly records of new permanent and temporary job vacancies and new candidates registering with the firm for employment, also found that the number of job seekers rose by 7% month-on-month in May as job security became less of a concern.
On average, workers moving to new roles last month pocketed an 8% pay rise versus a 12% gain in April.
The smaller pay rise was down to firms having spent some of their hiring budgets earlier in the year, feeling less pressure to snap up top candidates as markets calmed and people returning to work after a period of redundancy.

Saudi prince sues Forbes - report


Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal has sued Forbes magazine for libel in a British court, alleging its valuation of his wealth at $20bn was short of the mark by $9.6bn, Britain's Guardian newspaper reported on Friday.
The prince, a grandson of Saudi Arabia's founder and nephew of King Abdullah, had attacked the US magazine's ranking of world billionaires as flawed and biased against Middle Eastern businesses after he was ranked number 26 in this year's list.
An official at the High Court in London confirmed that Prince Alwaleed had filed a defamation suit against Forbes, its editor Randall Lane, and two of its journalists on April 30. Details of the claim were not immediately available.
Through his Kingdom Holding Company, Prince Alwaleed owns large stakes in Citigroup, News Corp and Apple Inc, among other companies. He is also owner or part-owner of luxury hotels including the Plaza in New York, the Savoy in London and the George V in Paris.
This year's Forbes World Billionaires list was published on March 4, and the following day Kingdom Holding said the valuation process used "incorrect data" and "seemed designed to disadvantage Middle Eastern investors and institutions".
The public spat attracted a lot of comment, but Forbes stuck by its estimate of Prince Alwaleed's wealth and published an in-depth article in its March 25 issue entitled "Prince Alwaleed and the curious case of Kingdom Holding stock".
The article gave details about how Forbes had arrived at the figure of $20 billion and criticised what it described as a lack of transparency by Kingdom Holding in detailing its assets.
The article also described Prince Alwaleed's marble-filled, 420-room Riyadh palace, his private Boeing 747 equipped with a throne, and his 120-acre resort on the edge of the Saudi capital with five homes, five artificial lakes and a mini-Grand Canyon.
The High Court official in London said the two journalists named in the defamation claim were Kerry Dolan, the author of the article, and Francine McKenna, who was credited with additional reporting.
No date has been set for a court hearing in the case, which is in its very early stages, the official said.
The law firm Kobre & Kim, which the Guardian said was acting for Prince Alwaleed in the suit, declined to comment. New York-based Forbes could not immediately be reached for comment.
The Guardian article quoted the magazine as saying: "We're very surprised at claims that Prince Alwaleed has decided to sue Forbes, particularly if he has done so in the United Kingdom, a jurisdiction that has nothing whatsoever to do with our recent story which raised questions about his claims about his wealth."
Media lawyer Jonathan Coad, of the London firm Lewis Silkin, said London was seen as a more attractive place than New York to bring defamation suits because US libel law made higher requirements of claimants.
"In the US, a high-profile claimant has to prove firstly that the article was untrue and secondly that the publisher knew that the article was untrue, which is what we call malice. Those are two hurdles that a UK libel action does not present," said Coad, who is not involved in the Prince Alwaleed case.
Under British libel law, a claimant has only to prove that a publication was defamatory. Then the burden of proof passes to the defendant, who has several possible defences, including that the publication was true.

Obama to name Furman as chief economist


President Barack Obama on Monday will nominate longtime adviser Jason Furman to be his new chief White House economist, an administration official said.
Furman, who will replace economist Alan Krueger as chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and has advised Obama since his 2008 election campaign.
"Furman has been a key adviser to the president and has contributed to most every major proposal on jobs and the economy," said the White House official who declined to be identified. Obama will announce the appointment at 14:10.
Krueger, who was confirmed as CEA chair in November 2011, is returning to his professor post at Princeton University, from which he has been on leave. He had to return to the school by this fall in order to maintain his tenure, according to one source.
Furman is currently assistant to the president for economic policy and principal deputy director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), which is run by Gene Sperling, and was an economist in the Clinton administration.
The CEA advises the president on domestic and international economic policy based on data and economic research. The chairman is a cabinet member and requires Senate confirmation.
Former colleagues said Furman would be effective because of his good relationship with the president and White House staff.
The appointment is likely a sign that budget and tax fights with Congress will continue to play a high-profile role in White House economic policy. It could also raise the profile of the CEA within the White House itself.

 

Opec keeps oil demand forecast steady


Opec kept its world oil demand forecast for 2013 virtually unchanged in its latest update on Tuesday, but tipped downward revisions given the deteriorating economic climate.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said it expected world demand this year to reach 89.65 million barrels per day (mbpd), a slight drop from the forecast of 89.66 mbpd in its previous monthly report.
This would represent a rise of 780,000 bpd from 2012 oil demand, said the cartel which pumps about 35% of the world's crude.
Most of the increased demand is due to China and other countries not in the OECD club of advanced economies.
But Opec warned "the current forecast is subject to downward revisions not only in the OECD but also in emerging economies."
The latest Chinese manufacturing and export data raised concerns about a slowdown in Chinese growth, while growth in advanced economies is also expected to be lower than initially expected.
The Opec report noted that oil demand from debt crisis-wracked Europe declined for the 20th straight month in April.
"General expectations for the region's oil consumption during 2013 have once more weakened since last month's projections," said Opec.
Despite concerns about weakening global demand for oil, the cartel decided at its latest ministerial meeting at the end of last month to keep its output ceiling unchanged at 30 mbpd as the price per barrel of crude has hovered around $100.
However it warned it stood ready to act to support the price of oil.
The report, citing non-Opec sources, noted that international sanctions were having an impact on Iran's oil output, which fell to 2.64 mbpd in May, down from a level of 3.63 mbpd in 2011.
The International Energy Agency, the energy analysis arm of the 34-nation Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), releases its updated oil market forecasts on Wednesday.

US approves a nearly $1trn farm bill


The US Senate approved a sweeping, $955bn farm bill late Monday that sets out agriculture policy for the next five years, including expansion of crop insurance and reduction of food stamps.
The bill, which allocates some $955bn on nutrition and conservation programs, commodities and other agriculture spending, passed 66-27 with broad bipartisan support, and goes to the House of Representatives for consideration.
It slashes some $24bn from the federal deficit compared with the previous farm bill, a consideration Democrats hope will beef up the likelihood of passage in the Republican-led House where members have expressed intent to cut even more.
Agriculture is among the biggest US industries, accounting for at least 16 million jobs, and Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, chair of the Agriculture Committee, has called passing the farm bill this year a top priority.
"It's been a long road," she said on the Senate floor, referring to how last year's farm bill passed by the Senate was not taken up by the Republican-controlled House, causing the Senate version to expire at the end of 2012.
"I'm very optimistic we will get this done" and on to President Barack Obama's desk for his signature.
Stabenow accused House Republicans of having "walked away from rural America last year," but "this year it looks like it's going to be different."
House Speaker John Boehner suggested as much Monday in a statement saying the House will begin "vigorous and open debate" on its version of the farm bill later this month.
But Boehner hinted at a potential showdown, particularly over dairy provisions from last year that Boehner opposes, but that were kept in the 2013 bill.
"I oppose those provisions and will support efforts on the House floor to change them appropriately," he said, but he urged House members to come forward with possible solutions.
"Let's have the debate, and let's vote," he said.
By far the largest part of the bill, some $760.5bn over 10 years - the chunk of time over which the costs are calculated - addresses nutritional programs including food stamps, which the legislation cuts by some $4bn.
House lawmakers have called for even deeper cuts in the food stamp program as part of their goal of slashing a further $15bn from the overall bill.
It also marks a major transition from direct payments to farmers, a decades-old policy that helps shield growers from risk, to a market-based crop insurance system.
The new crop insurance plan would cost $89bn over 10 years.

Snowden: Russia will consider asylum


Russia would consider granting asylum to the American who has exposed top-secret US surveillance programmes, if he were to ask for it, President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson said on Tuesday.
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stopped short of saying Moscow would accept Edward Snowden, but pro-Kremlin lawmakers spoke out in favour of the idea, tapping into a lingering Cold War rivalry with the United States and a vein of anti-American sentiment Putin has often encouraged.
"Promising Snowden asylum, Moscow takes upon itself the defence of people persecuted for political reasons," Alexei Pushkov, chairperson of the international affairs committee in the lower house of parliament, said on Twitter.
"There will be hysteria in the United States. They recognise this as their right alone," he said.
Putin and other Russian officials have often accused the United States of hypocrisy, saying it tries to impose standards of human rights, freedom and democracy on other nations while falling far short of them itself.
Snowden, who provided the information for reports that revealed broad monitoring of phone call and Internet data by the US government, fled to Hong Kong and has said he hopes that Iceland might grant him asylum.
He is not known to have mentioned the possibility of asylum in Russia, but Peskov was quoted in Russian daily Kommersant as saying Moscow was open to such an approach.
Asked whether Russia would be inclined to grant an asylum request, the spokesperson said: "It is impossible [to say] now. No one has applied yet. If he says: I request [political asylum], then we will consider it".


US assesses damage after NSA leak


The Obama administration has launched an internal review to assess damage to US national security from last week's leak of top-secret details of National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance programmes, a senior US intelligence official said.
The review is separate from an initial criminal investigation into the leak opened by the justice department, the official told.
The administration's review will examine the extent of damage to national security programs from the disclosures by Edward Snowden, of details of NSA's collection of phone call and e-mail data, the official said.
It will be co-ordinated by the National Counter-intelligence Executive (NCIX), a branch of the director of national intelligence's office, the official said.
Snowden, who had been working at the NSA as an employee of contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, went public in a video released on Sunday by Britain's Guardian newspaper.
In the interview, he described being disturbed by the NSA's broad monitoring of phone call and internet data from large companies such as Google and Facebook.
The company said on Tuesday that it had terminated Snowden's employment on Monday for violations of its code of ethics and policies.
It said he had been an employee for less than three months and had a salary of $122 000.
Snowden's revelations have prompted a broad national debate about the balance of American's privacy rights and national security measures, especially as they have developed since the 11 September 2001, attacks in the United States.
A team of national security, law enforcement and intelligence officials was scheduled to brief House of Representatives members later on Tuesday about the NSA's surveillance programmes. The Senate will be briefed on Thursday.
Snowden "a traitor"
House Speaker John Boehner defended the NSA programmes and their congressional oversight, saying he had been briefed on the programmes and that Americans were not "snooped on", unless they communicated with a terrorist in another country.
"He's a traitor," Boehner said of Snowden in an interview.
"The disclosure of this information puts Americans at risk, it shows our adversaries what our capabilities are, and it's a giant violation of the law."
Many other lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans, have also called for swift punishment.
But Senator Rand Paul, a Republican popular with the Tea Party movement that campaigns against intrusive government, said he was reserving judgment on Snowden.
He said such civil disobedience happened when people felt like they had no other options.
"I think most Americans don't want this surveillance," Paul said

Cyber-snooping backlash builds in Berlin


German outrage over a secret US internet spying programme is building before a visit by Barack Obama next week, with senior members of Chancellor Angela Merkel's government demanding a full explanation from the president when he lands in Berlin.

Merkel's spokesperson has said she will raise the issue with Obama in talks next Wednesday. That could cast a cloud over the visit, designed to celebrate US-German ties on the 50th anniversary of a famous speech in which President John F Kennedy declared: "Ich bin ein Berliner".

Government surveillance is an extremely sensitive topic in
Germany, where memories of East Germany's feared Stasi secret police and its extensive network of informants are still fresh in the minds of many citizens.

In a guest editorial for Spiegel Online on Tuesday, Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger said reports the
United States could access and track virtually all forms of internet communication were "deeply disconcerting" and potentially "dangerous".

"The more a society monitors, controls and observes its citizens, the less free it is," she said.

"The suspicion of excessive surveillance of communication is so alarming that it cannot be ignored. For that reason, openness and clarification by the
US administration itself is paramount at this point. All facts must be put on the table."

Germans still enamoured of Obama

Opposition parties have jumped on the issue, keen to put a dampener on the Merkel-Obama talks and prevent them from boosting the chancellor as she gears up for a September parliamentary election in which she is seeking a third term.

"This looks to me like it could become one of the biggest data privacy scandals ever," Greens leader Renate Kuenast told.

Obama is due to land in
Berlin on Tuesday night, hold talks and a news conference with Merkel on Wednesday and then give a speech in front of thousands at the Brandenburg Gate.

It is his first trip to the German capital since he passed through in 2008 during his first campaign for the presidency, giving a speech at the Victory Column in the Tiergarten park that attracted 200 000 adoring fans.

Five years on, Germans are still enamoured of Obama: A poll last week showed 82% view him favourably.

But his failure to close the Guantanamo Bay military prison, extensive use of drones to kill suspected al-Qaeda militants and the latest revelations about the secret surveillance programme, codenamed Prism, have tempered enthusiasm.

Grounds for 'massive concern'

According to documents leaked to the Washington Post and Guardian newspapers, the programme gave US officials access to e-mails, web chats and other communications from companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter and Skype.

Obama has defended it as a "modest encroachment" on privacy and reassured Americans that no one is listening to their phone calls.

But
US law puts virtually no eavesdropping restrictions on the communications of foreigners, meaning in theory that Washington could be delving into the private Internet communications of Germans and other Europeans.

Peter Schaar, the German official with responsibility for data privacy, said this was grounds for "massive concern" in
Europe.

"The problem is that we Europeans are not protected from what appears to be a very comprehensive surveillance programme," he told the Handelsblatt newspaper. "Neither European nor German rules apply here, and American laws only protect Americans."

Swiss want answers on US spy claims


Switzerland on Tuesday revealed that it has asked the United States to explain an alleged CIA blackmail operation to spy on the Alpine country's banks, exposed by whistleblower Edward Snowden.
The Swiss foreign ministry told AFP that it was aware of media reports about the issue and that it had sent the US embassy in the capital Berne a diplomatic note seeking "clarification".
The ministry also confirmed that Snowden was accredited as a diplomatic attaché at the US permanent mission to the United Nations in Geneva from March 2007 to February 2009.
"The role of members of permanent missions in Geneva is to represent their country at international organisations based in Switzerland," the ministry said.
"In line with the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, Switzerland expects members of diplomatic missions in Berne and permanent missions in Geneva to respect the laws and rules of the country," it added.
Snowden, a 29-year-old technology expert and US government contractor, has turned whistleblower to reveal Washington's so-called PRISM programme.
The programme enables the National Security Agency to issue directives to internet firms such as Google or Facebook to gain access to emails, online chats, pictures, files and videos uploaded by foreign users.
Snowden has said that it was in Geneva - where his diplomatic role was a cover for his work for the US intelligence agency, the CIA - that he first considered going public.
Disillusioned
"Much of what I saw in Geneva really disillusioned me about how my government functions and what its impact is in the world," he told the British newspaper The Guardian.
"I realised that I was part of something that was doing far more harm than good," he added.
Snowden claimed there was an operation in which an agent made friends with a banker, got him drunk so he was stopped for driving while intoxicated, and then helped him escape legal action.
In exchange, the man allegedly spied on Swiss banks to garner data for US tax authorities on money stashed abroad by Americans.
Speculation is raging in Switzerland's media over the banker's identity, amid a debate over a take-it-or-leave-it deal proposed by Washington to fine Swiss banks that allegedly abetted such tax evasion.
Discharged from the army after an accident in 2003 just before he could deploy to Iraq, Snowden worked at the National Security Agency for various outside contractors, including Dell and Booz Allen Hamilton.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

NEWS,03.04.2013



Economist warns of radical climate change


The author of an influential 2006 study on climate change warned on Tuesday that the world could be headed toward warming even more catastrophic than expected but he voiced hope for political action. Nicholas Stern, the British former chief economist for the World Bank, said that both emissions of greenhouse gas and the effects of climate change were taking place faster than he forecast seven years ago.Without changes to emission trends, the planet has roughly a 50% chance that temperatures will soar to five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages in a century, he said."We haven't been above five degrees Centigrade on this planet for about 30 million years. So you can see that this is radical change way outside human experience," Stern said in an address at the International Monetary Fund."When we were at three degrees Centigrade three million years ago, the sea levels were about 20 some meters above now. On sea level rise of just two meters, probably a couple of hundred million people would have to move," he said.Stern said that other effects would come more quickly including the expansion of deserts and the melting of Himalayan snows that supply rivers on which up to two billion people depend.Even if nations fulfill pledges made in 2010 at a UN-led conference in Cancun, Mexico, the world would be on track to warming of four degrees (7.2 Fahrenheit), he said.Stern's 2006 study, considered a landmark in raising public attention on climate change, predicted that warming would shave at least five percent of gross domestic product per year.Despite the slow progress in international negotiations, Stern saw signs for hope as a number of countries move to put a price on greenhouse gases."My own view is that 2013 is the best possible year to try to work and redouble our efforts to create the political will that hitherto has been much too weak," Stern said.Stern said that French President Francois Hollande was keen for nations to meet their goal of sealing an accord in 2015 in Paris.Stern also voiced hope that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, long a prominent voice on climate change, would become more active after this year's elections.US President Barack Obama has vowed action on climate change after an earlier bid was thwarted by lawmakers of the rival Republican Party, many of whom reject the science behind climate change.Emissions have risen sharply in recent years from emerging economies, particularly China.

Minister vows to revive Cypriot economy


The new finance minister of cash-strapped Cyprus vowed on Wednesday to do "whatever it takes" to sort out the EU country's teetering finances and put the economy back on track for growth. Haris Georgiades was speaking hours after President Nicos Anastasiades swore him in, warning of "difficult days ahead" for an island struggling to recover from a near financial meltdown and the need for a crippling eurozone bailout.Anastasiades said this would entail "firstly, collectivity and, secondly, consistency and fiscal discipline and all those measures that will contribute to kick-starting the economy as soon as possible."The new minister, a 40-year-old British-educated economist, vowed to implement the terms of the bailout "fully... we shall meet all time frames and meet all targets"."We... shall do whatever it takes to fix our public finances and put our economy back on track for growth.""Even though today's circumstances might be bleak, the medium- and long-term prospects remain excellent. We have received a blow but I'm absolutely confident we shall overcome," said Georgiades.Under the terms of the bailout, Cyprus will drastically reduce the size of its bloated banking sector, raise taxes, downsize the public sector workforce and privatise some state-owned firms.Cyprus is already in recession, with unemployment at around 15% and expected to grow sharply this year and next.Forecasts before the deal was agreed saw GDP contracting by 3.5% this year.On Tuesday, outgoing finance minister Michalis Sarris said "2013 will be a very difficult year, and the beginning of 2014 will also be difficult. Beyond this I believe the prospects are positive".Georgiades, who became labour minister when Anastasiades was elected in February, was appointed after Sarris stepped down on Tuesday.Sarris had been chairperson last year of failed Laiki Bank, whose collapse was a major contributor to the crisis. He said he was resigning to cooperate with a panel of judges appointed to investigate the causes of the crisis.His departure came as the government wrapped up talks with the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank that will open the way for Cyprus to receive a €10bn ($12.8bn) bailout.The deal will see Cyprus receiving the loan with an interest rate of between 2.5 and 2.7%, repayable over 12 years after a grace period of 10.On Wednesday, International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said the IMF's contribution would be approximately €1bn."This is a challenging programme that will require great efforts from the Cypriot population," Lagarde said in a statement, but it "provides a durable and fully financed solution to the underlying problems facing Cyprus and provides a sustainable path toward a recovery".Under the final deal, Cyprus won a two-year extension, from 2016 to 2018, to get its public finances in order.Cyprus should get the first payment from the bailout next month after the rescue accord is formally ratified, the European Commission said.Also sworn in on Wednesday was Zeta Emilianidou, who becomes the first woman in the cabinet and replaces Georgiades at the labour ministry.Anastasiades told her: "The ministry you are undertaking certainly requires great sensitivity. It is a ministry that deals with the government's social policy for vulnerable groups" and with industrial relations.Banks have been operating under stringent capital controls since they reopened last Thursday, after a near two-week lockdown prompted by fears of a run on deposits.The central bank has been progressively easing these restrictions, and has now raised the limit on business transactions from €5 000 to €25 000 and allowing people to write cheques of up to €9 000.Thus far, there has been no labour unrest in Cyprus, but bank workers union ETYK called a two-hour stoppage for Thursday over fears that pension funds at Laiki and Bank of Cyprus are not being protected under the bailout.Last week, Anastasiades said every effort would be made to preserve provident (pension) funds at Laiki and Bank of Cyprus.

March US job gains worse-than-expected


The US private sector added 158

  • jobs in March, sharply below February's growth as the jobs market slowly recovers, payrolls firm ADP said on Wednesday.The worse-than-expected March reading followed February's upwardly revised figure of 237

  • new jobs, from an initial estimate of 198

  • Analysts on average had forecast 197

  • new jobs were added last month. The March number was well below the first quarter's average monthly gain of 191

  • jobs and marked the smallest increase since October.The massive US services sector continued to generate the greatest job growth, adding 151

  • posts in March from February.Goods-producing employment rose by 7

  • jobs, the slowest growth in six months.Manufacturing gained 6

  • jobs.Construction added no jobs, after three months of average gains of 29

  • "Construction employment gains paused as the rebuilding surge in the wake of Superstorm Sandy ended," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, referring to the devastating storm that battered the Northeast at the end of October."The job market continues to improve, but in fits and starts," he said.The ADP report came ahead of the government's closely watched jobs and unemployment data Friday.The labour department was expected to report that the United States gained 192

  • jobs in March, slowing significantly from growth of 236

  • in February, and the jobless rate was unchanged at 7.7%.

IMF set to provide €1bn to Cyprus


The International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide approximately €1bn to the €10bn rescue plan for cash-strapped Cyprus, managing director Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday.This would be through a three-year 891 million Special Drawing Rights (about €1bn) loan, Lagarde said in a statement, adding that she expects the deal to go to the IMF executive board for approval in early May.The IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank agreed with Cyprus on Tuesday the terms of a programme that will see the country drastically downsize its bloated banking sector and put state finances in order."The Cypriot authorities have put forward an ambitious, multi-year reform programme to address the economic challenges they face," Lagarde said, describing it as "resolute.""The overarching goals are to stabilise the financial system, achieve fiscal sustainability and support the recovery of economic activity to preserve the welfare of the population."As part of the deal, Cyprus agreed last week to shut down bankrupt Laiki (Popular) Bank, transferring its deposits under €100 000 to the country's largest lender, Bank of Cyprus, which will be recapitalised.Deposits over €100 000 at Bank of Cyprus will be subject to a still-undetermined haircut which could reach 60% of their value. At the same time, the government imposed capital controls to prevent a run on banks.Lagarde said efforts will now "focus on completing the financial sector recapitalisation process, gradually restoring normal financial flows and facilitating the restructuring of banks' impaired loans".Cyprus has also committed itself to raise taxes, rein in spending and carry out structural reforms in the public sector to put its public finances in order.Lagarde said "this is a challenging programme that will require great efforts from the Cypriot population," but that it "provides a durable and fully financed solution to the underlying problems facing Cyprus and provides a sustainable path toward a recovery."She added that the measures adopted "seek to distribute the burden of the adjustment fairly among the various segments of the population and to protect the most vulnerable groups. The IMF, together with its European partners, will continue to support the efforts of the Cypriot people".

Dodging taxes 'second nature' in India


In a country long defined by its poverty, it's easy now to find India's rich.They're at New Delhi's Emporio mall, where herds of chauffeur-driven Jaguars and Audis disgorge shoppers heading to the Louis Vuitton and Christian Louboutin stores. They're shopping for Lamborghinis in Mumbai. They're putting elevators in their homes and showing off collections of jewel-encrusted watches in Indian luxury magazines. They're buying real estate in comfortable but unpretentious neighborhoods neighborhoods thought of as simply upper-middle-class just a couple years ago where apartments now regularly sell for millions of dollars.They're just about everywhere. Unless it's income tax time. Then, suddenly, they barely exist.The reality is simple: "There are very few people who are paying taxes," said Sonu Iyer, a tax expert at Ernst & Young in New Delhi. And tax dodging is everywhere. "It's rampant - rampant."If the generalities of that have long been known here, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram stunned the country in late February when he proposed a new tax on India's top earners. The surprise wasn't the temporary 10% surcharge on those earning more than 10,000,000 rupees, or about $185 000, per year, but the number of Indians who fall into that category.That number? Just 42 800 people."Let me repeat," Chidambaram told Parliament in his budget speech, making sure no one thought he had misspoken, "only 42 800" people say they earn that much.In a country of 1.2 billion people, a country where years of staggering economic growth annually create tens of thousands of new millionaires and a recent slowdown has done little damage to a thriving luxury goods market, far less than one ten-thousandth of the population admits they are in the top tax bracket.With so few Indians willing to come clean, the perennially cash-starved government has to scrabble every year for revenue.Among the rich, dodging taxes has become second nature, said Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial, a Mumbai-based financial consulting firm. About 158,000 Indians are thought to be dollar millionaires, according to a 2012 Credit Suisse estimate, though some analysts believe the number is far higher."It's just taken as the reality" that most wealthy Indians are cheating, he said, adding that he pays everything he owes. India's top tax rate is currently 30%.It's not just the rich evading their taxes. Less than 3% of Indians file income tax returns at all, and officials say only about 1.5 million taxpayers say they earn more than 1,000,000 rupees per year about $18 000.Most of those not paying have legitimate reasons. Well over half the population earns so little they don't have to pay income taxes. Despite its ever-growing population of nouveau riche, more than 400 million Indians still live below the poverty line.Millions more people are exempt because regulations exclude agricultural income from taxes, no matter how much is earned. Since India has hundreds of millions of small farmers, and a powerful bloc of wealthy farmers, that's a tax break few politicians dare challenge. Various other tax breaks legally keep many more people off the tax rolls.The bulk of those paying income taxes, experts say, are salaried employees whose companies are responsible for making their tax payments. While those taxpayers can fudge their numbers to an extent, using inflated receipts to magnify tax breaks on expenses like housing, it's extremely difficult for them to completely escape tax authorities.But most everyone else from the barons of family-owned businesses to doctors, lawyers and small traders operate in largely cash economies that enable them, if they want, to hide most of their income.The size of India's underground economy and the amount of lost taxes is widely debated, but even the lowball figures are immense in a country with a nearly $2 trillion GDP. In recent studies, experts estimated that anywhere from 17% to 42% of the economy operates beneath the official radar.Billions of dollars are widely thought to be hidden in Switzerland, Singapore and other tax havens.Then there is the strange case of Mauritius. More than 40% of foreign direct investment in India comes through this tiny island in the Indian Ocean. In part, that statistic reflects an India-Mauritius tax treaty that legally eases the flow of investment funds into India. But, experts say, it also allows Indians to launder vast amounts of untaxed wealth by sending their illegal cash to Mauritius, then "round-tripping" it back to India in the form of legal investments.If it would take concerted effort to shut down complex, international money-laundering operations, catching at least some of India's high-end tax dodgers should be ridiculously simple. This is, after all, a country where flaunted wealth often seems as common as traffic jams.How about targeting the buyers of the 25 000 luxury cars sold last year in India? Or the buyers and sellers of big-budget apartments? What about the people racking up thousands of dollars a month in credit card bills? Maybe tax investigators could go to those high-end malls, looking to see who is buying all the expensive shoes.While the government says it recently has begun targeting some big spenders, mailing notices to tens of thousands of people they say may have underpaid their taxes, few believe officials have truly become aggressive."It's not really that difficult to chase down the tax dodgers," said Mecklai, the consulting firm CEO. "It's just a matter of putting the machinery in place."So why isn't the government doing that?The answers range from sheer incompetence to corrupt tax bureaucrats to a political class accustomed to making vast wealth on the side, and unlikely to do anything that might jeopardize its ill-gotten gains.Certainly the Indian public sees official corruption as a major part of the equation."Of course I don't pay all my taxes," said a New Delhi businessman who spoke on condition he not be named because he was admitting to breaking the law. "Why should I pay my taxes while the politicians are getting richer and richer every day?"Such talk is, experts say, the most commonly heard rationale for tax evasion, one entrenched by decades of political corruption and waves of official scandals.But it doesn't explain everything. Iyer, the Ernst & Young tax expert, notes that the culture of tax-avoidance runs deep in India. She points particularly to the way buyers and sellers of real estate openly discuss how much of the price will be paid in "white" declared money, and how much will be paid under the table in "black.""No one thinks of it as something to be ashamed about," she said. "In a country of holier-than-thou's, no one thinks that it's a blatant lie" to cheat on your taxes.Embarrassment, she said, may be what India needs most of all."The moment this society establishes a stigma to it, I think you'd see a change."

Cyprus to swear in new FM


Cyprus's new finance minister was due to be sworn in Wednesday following his predecessor's resignation hours after a probe was launched into how the island was pushed to the verge of bankruptcy. Haris Georgiades, a 40-year-old economist who had been serving as labour minister, will formally take up his new post a day after Michalis Sarris said he was stepping down to cooperate with judges investigating the failure of Laiki Bank, where he was chairman for much of last year.The bank's collapse was a major contributor to the island's near financial meltdown and need for a crippling eurozone bailout.President Nicos Anastasiades said on Tuesday he had accepted Sarris's resignation with "sadness" and lauded his "high political ethos" for stepping down.Sarris said he believed stepping down was "the right thing" to do to facilitate the investigators' work.His departure came as the government wrapped up talks with international lenders that will open the way for Cyprus to receive a €10bn bailout, said government spokesperson Christos Stylianides."Today we have completed the forming of the memorandum, which is a precondition for the loan agreement," with the period to implement the deal extended by two years to 2018 to "ease pressure on the economy", he said.It "should have taken place a lot sooner, under more favourable political and financial circumstances," he said, but added: "Even with this delay, the situation is now normalising, stabilising and the conditions to restart the economy are created."Cyprus is already in recession, and as he resigned Sarris said that "2013 will be a very difficult year, and the beginning of 2014 will also be difficult. Beyond this I believe the prospects are positive."

Ex-Goldman trader guilty in $118m scandal


A former trader with US banking giant Goldman Sachs has pleaded guilty to wire fraud.Matthew Marshall Taylor entered the plea Wednesday in federal court in Manhattan.Taylor admitted he took a trading position 10 times larger than he would have been allowed. He wanted to score profits that would enhance his reputation and boost his bonuses.The judge who accepted the plea said he was miffed that the government is holding Taylor responsible for only up to $2.5m in losses.Taylor was arrested on Wednesday on criminal charges of fraud linked to a scheme to hide an $8bn futures bet, officials said. Matthew Marshall Taylor "was in FBI custody as of early this morning," a source familiar with the government's case told AFP on condition of anonymity.The federal prosecutor's office in Manhattan said Taylor was due to appear before a judge on the charges "in connection with a scheme to accumulate and conceal an unauthorized $8bn position in a trading account that he managed at Goldman Sachs".In November, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission filed a civil suit accusing Taylor of defrauding his employer "by intentionally concealing... the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated"."On or about December 13 2007, Taylor's scheme culminated in his concealment of an approximately $8.3bn long (S&P 500) e-mini futures position," the watchdog said, alleging that Taylor ended up defrauding Goldman Sachs of $118.4m.In December last year, the CFTC ordered Goldman Sachs to pay $1.5m in a fine for the actions of its trader, saying "it failed to diligently supervise its employees for several months in late 2007".The central bank eased restrictions imposed last week to prevent a bank run, raising the limit on business transactions from €5 000 to €25 000 and allowing people to write cheques of up to €9 000.With public anger mounting, Anastasiades said no one would be immune from the new judicial inquiry into the banking collapse, and called on the commission headed by former Supreme Court judge George Pikkis to investigate him and his relatives with "extra vigour".This is seen as a move to counter so far unsubstantiated allegations that family members used privileged information to get money out of the country before deposits were locked down.Other leading politicians and business figures have also been accused of taking advantage of their positions to protect their assets from a hit on bank deposits imposed by EU-led creditors last week.Under the bailout deal with the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, those with savings larger than €100 000 in the Bank of Cyprus face losing up to 60% of their deposits over that amount.Those in second lender Laiki will have to wait years to see any of their money over €100 000 as the bank is shuttered.Central bank official Yiangos Demetriou told state radio on Tuesday that Bank of Cyprus savers would now be able to access 10% of their deposits over €100 000.But he added the "troika" of bailout creditors had asked for more information before agreeing to release the full 40% of deposits over that threshold that savers can be sure of retaining.Banks have been operating under stringent capital controls since they reopened on Thursday, after a near two-week lockdown prompted by fears of a run on deposits.Central Bank of Cyprus governor Panicos Demetriades said the remaining controls would be eased in stages."I can't really tell you if it will be seven or 14 days before capital controls end," he told the Financial Times. "We have to lift them gradually."

Strike halts train, sea travel in Greece


Tens of thousands of travellers were stranded across Greece on Wednesday as seamen and train conductors called a 24-hour strike to protest austerity measures.Ferries were moored at ports across the country, and train services were disrupted as employees protested cutbacks, including the abolition of collective labour contracts that safeguard wage levels and other benefits.Dock workers were demanding back pay from ship owners and an end to undocumented and uninsured employees. The workers also want the government to cancel a plan to regulate the minimum number of dock workers required in each crew, saying it would lead to layoffs.Air traffic was also expected to be disrupted on Thursday as air-traffic controllers were to hold a 24-hour walkout.Greek unions have held dozens of strikes over the past three years to protest public sector pay cuts and tax hikes. The heavily indebted government passed the measures to secure bailout loans.

Italy seizes €1bn in Mafia-linked assets


Italian police on Wednesday said they had seized assets worth €1.3bn from a Sicilian renewable energy developer in the biggest ever seizure of Mafia-linked assets.The assets, including 43 wind and solar energy companies, 98 properties and 66 bank accounts, belonged to Vito Nicastri, a 57-year-old businessman dubbed the "Lord of the Wind" for his prominent role in the business."This is a sector in which money can easily be laundered," Arturo de Felice, head of Italy's anti-Mafia agency, told news channel SkyTG24."Operating in a grey area helped him build up his business over the years," De Felice said.The anti-Mafia agency said in a statement that it was the biggest seizure of mafia-linked assets.The assets had been frozen in 2010 and Nicastri is on probation under orders not to leave his town of Alcamo in western Sicily during the investigation.Nicastri had "numerous and high-level contacts with mafia figures," the anti-mafia agency said, adding that this had been confirmed by messages found during the arrest of two local Mafia bosses.The businessman was also linked to Matteo Messina Denaro, a fugitive who is considered the godfather of the Sicilian mafia, the statement said.The seizure "impacts in a significant way on the economic power of Matteo Messina Denaro, who is considered the lord of that land," it added.Italy's renewable energy sector has been heavily infiltrated by the mafia because of once-generous state subsidies and lax controls, as well as the availability of land in areas of southern Italy with a strong Mafia presence.

Monday, September 24, 2012

NEWS,24.09.2012



Putin could go 'overnight' without reforms, says economist


Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces the biggest protests of his 12-year rule, could lose power overnight if the oil price sinks and he fails to reduce corruption, a leading Russian economist said today.Sergei Guriev, Rector of the New Economic School in Moscow, said the former KGB spy was in little danger in the near future if the price of oil, Russia's main export commodity and a vital revenue source, remained over US$100 per barrel.But he said political upheaval could follow swiftly if the oil price sank and Putin, back in the Kremlin since May, failed to improve the investment climate or tame the corruption and bureaucracy that have plagued Russia for centuries."We all lived through the Soviet Union - which was forever until it was no more... These systems change very quickly," Guriev told the Reuters Russia Investment Summit, recalling that few predicted the Soviet empire's sudden demise two decades ago."The regime may fall apart overnight, and in a way that we don't know. It may be in a peaceful way, it may be in a bloody way," said Guriev.Putin, 59, has dominated Russia since he was first elected president in 2000 and an oil-fuelled economic boom helped keep him popular during his first two four-year terms.He remained Russia's paramount leader when he stepped aside to become prime minister in 2008 because of constitutional term limits, and won almost two-thirds of the votes in a presidential election in March despite the protests in big cities.Guriev is an active player in an "open government" initiative set up by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that is pushing a business-friendly reform agenda, but also has ties to one protest leader, lawyer and blogger Alexei Navalny.He said he thought Putin would heed the warnings before it was too late but must urgently improve the investment climate to keep credibility with the business community.Corruption fight is key Large capital outflows, which reached US$80 billion last year, highlighted Russian investors' pessimism and the protests showed the dissatisfaction of the emerging middle class, he said.Opinion pollsters say Putin's traditional support is holding up in the provinces but Guriev said: "I think (Putin) has already written off the Moscow middle class ... But the general public outside Moscow is also losing patience.""If he didn't care, we wouldn't see all this repression," he said, referring to new laws that increase potential fines for protesters, tighten controls on the Internet and force lobby groups that receive funding from abroad to register with the authorities as foreign agents and undergo additional checks.An anti-corruption drive would be a more effective way for Putin to disarm the opposition, which has made fighting graft a top demand, and help shore up his own popularity, Guriev said."If Putin fights corruption successfully, the opposition is gone," he said. "If Putin doesn't fight corruption, he's gone, and a new government will fight corruption."Underlining the importance of economic growth to Putin's political fortunes, he forecast growth of 3% in 2013 - a relatively low level compared with recent years - but said that even this rate would depend on the oil price. Were the price to fall to $60 per barrel, fiscal reserves would run out in two years, causing a crisis in the government's finances, he said.The oil price at which Russia's budget balances has risen to above $100 per barrel, from $50-55 per barrel five years ago."The government is popular (with ordinary Russians) because it spends more and more and more," he said. "If the oil price were $55, and the government could spend only what it can afford at $55, I think Putin would be gone."


World powers call for new Iran sanctions


Britain, France and Germany have officially called for new European Union sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, diplomats said Sunday.The foreign ministers of the three countries wrote to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton last week calling for tougher measures as the showdown with Tehran becomes more tense, a European diplomat said on condition of anonymity.The EU is working on more sanctions as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seeks to counter the pressure on his country at this week's UN General Assembly in New York.Ahmadinejad met UN leader Ban Ki-moon on Sunday as the EU foreign policy chief held talks on Iran and other topics with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in New York.Details of the new EU measures are still being worked on but foreign ministers from the 27-nation bloc will discuss the move at a meeting in Brussels on October 15.The United States and its European allies say that Iran is working toward a nuclear bomb. Iran says its research is for peaceful energy purposes. There has been mounting speculation in recent months that Israel is planning a military strike on Iran's bunkered nuclear facilities.The United States, Britain and France warned at the UN Security Council last week that time is running out for a negotiated solution with Iran."It is necessary that we sharpen the sanctions," said a second western official, confirming the request by foreign ministers William Hague of Britain, Laurent Fabius of France and Guido Westerwelle of Germany."We think there is still time for a political solution, a diplomatic solution, and this is what we are working for. But we cannot accept nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran," said the official, also speaking on condition of anonymity.Ashton is to chair a meeting in New York on Thursday of the six nations - the EU three, plus the United States, Russia and China - who have been seeking to negotiate a solution with Iran.The international community has pursued a dual track of pressure through sanctions while seeking to negotiate. But the US and European nations say Iran is refusing to talk.UN chief Ban "urged Iran to take the measures necessary to build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program," said a UN spokesperson, Vannina Maestracci.Ban and Ahmadinejad also discussed the war in Syria and the protests in the Muslim world against a US-made film that mocks Islam.The showdown with Iran is one of the key topics at the UN assembly where Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also scheduled to speak.Ahmadinejad, who will address world leaders on Wednesday, is probably making his last appearance at the UN assembly where he has become a controversial figure.Western nations regularly walk out of his speeches in protest at his anti-Israeli comments.


German business mood worsens for fifth straight month


German business sentiment dropped for a fifth straight month in September, raising fears of recession as companies struggled with what they said was the worst economic outlook since mid-2009.Germany's relative resilience to the euro zone debt crisis has been steadily fraying as its firms see falling demand for their products from European partners and signs of a slowdown in other markets.The European Central Bank's plan for potentially unlimited government bond-buying has raised hopes on financial markets of an end to the most acute phase of the crisis, but that optimism has not spread to company boardrooms.The Munich-based Ifo institute's monthly sentiment index reached its lowest since early 2010 and Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe told Reuters the outlook was the worst since May 2009."Today's Ifo index shows that German companies remain sceptical about the economic impact of (ECB president) Mario Draghi's magic," ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski said."Despite fears of a looming Eurozone break-up clearly fading away, German businesses are downscaling their expectations. The German economy could see a contraction in the third quarter."Ifo said its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7000 firms, fell to 101.4 in September from 102.3 in August.In its monthly report, the Bundesbank said the domestic economy was robust, but added it saw signs of "weaker dynamics" and "great uncertainty".Foreign trade could be hit more strongly than before by developments in the euro area, the central bank added, also pointed to the labour market, where the rise in employment is slowing as companies become less willing to hire.Dutch business confidence also fell in September to -6.7 points from -4.6 in August, other data showed on Monday, adding to signs that the euro zone's stronger "core" economies are succumbing to the downturn.While they have not been punished by debt markets like much of the euro's southern half, both Germany and the Netherlands have slashed public spending to secure the future of public finances."The drop in Ifo business confidence is a potent reminder that the outlook for the German and Eurozone economies still hangs in the balance," said Holger Schmieding, German economist at investment bank Berenberg."Further policy steps to contain the Euro crisis may be needed for the Eurozone to turn the corner."Tough cuts While the German economy steamed ahead in the first three months of the year, saving the euro zone from recession by growing 0.5%, it lost momentum in the second quarter, with growth slowing to 0.3%.Dragging on the Ifo index in September was a sharp decline in sentiment among manufacturers, although companies in retailing and wholesaling reported a slightly brighter mood. Last week's ZEW survey also showed German analyst and investor morale picked up in September.Industrial group Bosch and steelmaker ThyssenKrupp , have announced plans to introduce "Kurzarbeit" or government-subsidised short-time work at German plants.The index would have fallen further had it not been for a ruling by Germany's constitutional court on Sept 12 in favour of the ratification of Europe's permanent bailout fund.Half of the responses in the survey came after the ruling.The Finance Ministry warned in its monthly report last Friday that data pointed to weaker growth in the remainder of the year. Many economists are now predicting a contraction for the third and possibly the fourth quarters.Another forward-looking indicator, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), last week showed Germany's private sector shrank for a fifth month, and a separate index for the euro zone showed that the ECB's bond-buying plan had so far failed to inspire any major improvement in business at ailing euro zone companies.However, economist Gerd Hassel said he believed news of the ECB's bond-buying plan had yet to fully sink in."I'm optimistic that the Ifo climate index will rise again in the coming months," he said.