NEWS,10.07.2013

Surge in growth for online mobile ads

Global spending on mobile internet ads surged 82.8% to $8.9bn in 2012, an industry survey showed this week.
The Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) said the figures highlight "a strong positive growth story taking place across mobile advertising formats".
"Mobile is coming into its own as a powerhouse advertising medium," the IAB's Anna Bager said.
"The massive and continuing acceleration of mobile's international impact provides new and exciting frontiers for content and communication."
More than half of spending was for search ads, or paid ads linked to web search queries; display ads accounted for 38.7% and messaging ads 8.5%, the IAB said.
The survey said the Asia-Pacific region accounted for some 40.2% of revenues, compared to 39.8% for North America and 16.9% for Western Europe,
A key factor for mobile advertising growth is the adoption of advanced fourth-generation mobile networks, which encourage people to spend more time using the internet on mobile devices.
A separate report last month by the research firm eMarketer said Google captured more than half of the mobile Internet advertising revenues worldwide last year and is expected to boost its share in 2013, and that Facebook's share is growing rapidly

Pentagon - WikiLeaks a journalistic site

The US military viewed anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks as a news gathering operation before Private First Class Bradley Manning leaked a trove of classified files to it, a Harvard professor testified at Manning's court-martial on Wednesday.
Yochai Benkler, a Harvard University law professor and expert on media law, testified for the defence that a 2008 Defence Department report on WikiLeaks had said that a US enemy could theoretically use the site to gather information.
But the Pentagon report, which had been based on publicly available material, said there was no sign that that had happened, said Benkler, the co-director of the Berkman Centre for Internet and Society.
The Pentagon report came out before Manning, 25, is alleged to have leaked more than 700 000 classified files, combat videos and State Department cables while serving as an intelligence analyst in Iraq in 2009 and 2010.
Benkler is the 10th witness called by chief defence lawyer David Coombs since he started his case on Monday. Coombs has not divulged a customary list of witnesses, but Benkler could be the last called by the defence.
The 21 charges against Manning include espionage, computer fraud and, most seriously, aiding the enemy by disclosing material that could be used by the al-Qaeda extremist network.
Manning, a native of Crescent, Oklahoma, could face life in prison without parole if convicted of aiding the enemy.
In other testimony, a specialist at the Centre for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, said in a sworn statement that the centre had not recommended changes, such as in training or tactics, because of the WikiLeaks disclosures.
The centre, which focuses on adapting operations to changing conditions, also had not been requested to do so, said the witness, whose name was not disclosed.
The defence has sought to portray Manning as a naive but well-intentioned soldier who wanted to show Americans the reality of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Defence lawyers also have contended that much of the material Manning is charged with leaking had been available from public sources before the WikiLeaks disclosure.
The prosecution rested last week after five weeks of testimony, some in closed session. The trial is scheduled to end by 23 August.

Snowden not afraid, no regrets

Fugitive US intelligence leaker Edward Snowden is not afraid and has no regrets about his revelations of US espionage activities, the reporter who first published the secret documents said Wednesday.
Glenn Greenwald, an American journalist for Britain's Guardian newspaper, also said in an interview with AFP that Venezuela seems like a "logical" asylum destination for Snowden.
"He's anxious about the next step... but feels really good about the debate he provoked," said Greenwald.
"I hadn't spoken to him in two weeks since he got out of Hong Kong until Saturday, when I spoke to him and then again yesterday Tuesday," he added.
"He's very calm, without any fear and definitely happy about the choices that he made," said the journalist, who lives in Rio de Janeiro.
Currently stranded in Moscow, Snowden has applied for asylum in more than two dozen countries in a bid to evade US espionage charges over his disclosure of US initiatives to gather Internet and phone data.
The 30-year-old former National Security Agency contractor has gained a sympathetic ear from some leftist Latin American countries. Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua have all offered him asylum.
Greenwald said he did not know which country would eventually accept the US fugitive, but suggested Venezuela was the most likely.
"I didn't spend any time talking about his asylum plans. I don't really know what he's planning on doing in terms of that," the 46-year-old US blogger said.
"To me, Venezuela seems like the most logical choice because it's bigger and stronger than the other two countries that offered asylum and will be able to protect him," he added.
I use encryption
On Tuesday, the WikiLeaks anti-secrecy website said that Snowden had not yet formally accepted asylum in Venezuela as was claimed by a top Russian lawmaker in a Twitter posting that was later deleted.
Pro-Kremlin lawmaker Alexei Pushkov sparked confusion when he tweeted on Tuesday that Snowden had agreed to an offer from Caracas. He deleted the posting after about 30 minutes.
Greenwald spends much of his time in Brazil, where he lives with a Brazilian partner who was unable to join him permanently in America due to legal restrictions.
New York-born and Florida-raised, he specialised in litigating constitutional and civil rights cases before shifting in 2005 towards blogging, book-writing and what he calls "adversarial journalism".
In four best-selling books, most recently With Liberty and Justice for Some: How the Law Is Used to Destroy Equality and Protect the Powerful, he has sought to expose threats to freedom of information.
He entered journalism through his own blog, Unclaimed Territory. He later wrote for Salon.com before contributing to The Guardian in August 2012.
Greenwald said he had many more stories to write based on Snowden's documents.
"I just wrote with O Globo three stories about massive [US] spying first in Brazil and then Latin America," he noted.
"There's a lot more stories like that, big stories about what the NSA is doing inside the United States. These stories take time, but there's a lot more coming."
He said he is fully aware that the US government is keeping him under close surveillance.
"I always assume that I'm being monitored and when I use computers or anything like that, I make sure I use encryption and I'm very careful," he said.
Even though some US politicians have called for Greenwald's arrest on grounds his reporting amounted to a "crime", he insisted: "I have never been directly threatened".
Asked whether he viewed Snowden as more than a source, Greenwald replied: "He is a source, but I have been very clear about the fact that I have a lot of admiration for what he did, a lot of respect.
"I think what he did was heroic. I care about him as a person and hope for the best for him."

Mudslide from flood buries dozens in China

Flooding in western China, the worst in 50 years for some areas, has triggered a landslide that buried up to 40 people and destroyed a high-profile memorial to a devastating 2008 earthquake.

There was no immediate word on the chances of survival for the 30 to 40 people buried in the city of Dujiangyan, but rescue workers with search dogs had rushed to the area, the official Xinhua News Agency said.
Mudslides and flooding are common in China's mountainous areas, killing hundreds of people every year. Deforestation has led to soil erosion and made some parts of China prone to mudslides after strong rains.
In nearby Beichuan county, flooding destroyed buildings and destroyed exhibits at a memorial for the earthquake five years ago in Sichuan province that left 90 000 people dead or missing.
The quake left the Beichuan county seat unliveable. The town was abandoned and 27 square kilometers of ruins was turned into a memorial and museum.
The flooding also caused the collapse of an almost 50-year-old bridge in a neighboring county, sending six vehicles into the raging waters and leaving 12 people missing.
Since Sunday, flooding in Sichuan has affected 360 000 people, damaging or destroying 300 homes, and forcing at least 6 100 emergency evacuations, state media reported.

NEWS,23. AND 24.02.2013

Italians vote in cliffhanger elections

Voting was underway in Italy's general election on Sunday, amid uncertainty about who will prevail and signs of mounting support for a radical protest party which advocates a referendum on the country's eurozone exit.Polling stations opened at 8am (07:00 GMT) and were to close at 10pm. A second day of voting takes place on Monday, from 7am to 3pm, with exit polls due immediately thereafter.A total of around 50 million Italians are eligible to vote, but analysts predict abstention rates of around 30%. Snow in northern Italy was expected to hold some voters back.According the Ministry of Interior, voter turnout stood at 14.6% by noon, down from 16.3% at the last general elections in 2008.The frontrunner in the contest is centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani, but his "Italy Common Good" coalition risks falling short of a majority in the upper house of parliament, the Senate.Negotiations to form a government may be complicated by the likely success of comedian Beppe Gril, whose anti-establishment Five Star Movement drew hundreds of thousands of people for its final rally on Friday in Rome.Pollsters say the movement could emerge as the third or second-largest single party in parliament. Grillo is not standing himself, but has pledged to act as the party's "spokesperson."The other main contenders are scandal-prone former premier Silvio Berlusconi, whose conservative coalition was trailing the centre-left before an opinion polls blackout came into force on February 8, and outgoing premier Mario Monti.Monti's centrist alliance is seen as the most likely coalition partner for Bersani were he not to secure a solid majority but the prospective deal is hindered by policy differences between Monti and Bersani's leftist ally, Nichi Vendola.All the leaders except Grillo had cast their vote by Sunday morning.

Britain clings to austerity

British finance minister George Osborne insisted on Saturday that he would not abandon his deficit-cutting drive after Moody's stripped the country of its coveted triple-A debt rating.The opposition lashed Osborne, saying his plan for the economy was shot through, while analysts said that although it was an embarrassment for him, the downgrade would have a limited impact in the markets.In an expected rebuff to London's hopes that sharp spending cuts would both gradually eliminate the deficit and revive growth, Moody's rating agency cut Britain's grade by one notch to Aa1 on Friday.Osborne said it was a "loud and clear message that Britain cannot let up in dealing with its debts, dealing with its problems, cannot let up in making sure that Britain can pay its way in the world."What is the message from the ratings agency? Britain's got a debt problem. I agree with that. I've been telling the country for years that we've got a debt problem, we've got to deal with it."What do they also say? That if we abandon our commitment to deal with that debt problem, then our situation would get very much worse and I'm absolutely clear that we must not do that."Asked if he had broken his commitment to protecting Britain's credit rating, he said the true test of credibility was whether Britain could borrow money."At the moment we can do that very cheaply with very low interest rates precisely because people have confidence that we have got a plan," he said.Moody's said government debt was still mounting and that growth was too weak to reverse the trend before 2016.It described the British economy as constrained both by turgid global growth and the drag from businesses and the government rapidly slashing their debt burdens.Calling it a "humiliating blow", Labour opposition finance spokesperson Ed Balls said Osborne had failed in his chief stated mission of retaining Britain's AAA status."The reality is an economy which is not growing, a deficit which is getting bigger, families in real stress and a government which is ploughing on regardless with a plan which is not working," he told BBC television."Saying 'the medicine is not working, let's increase the dose of the medicine' that is completely crazy economics."However, Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight research group, said that the market had been anticipating the downgrade for some time, though Britain's pound sterling currency may be vulnerable."It does focus attention on the UK economy's extended and ongoing serious problems," he said."The loss of the AAA rating certainly puts pressure on Mr Osborne to come up with more initiatives in the (March 20) budget to try and boost growth."While an embarrassment for the government and a cause for piqued pride, we suspect that the loss of the AAA rating will have only a limited negative impact for the UK economy." Mark Littlewood, director general of the Institute of Economic Affairs free-market think-tank, said: "The damaging impact of ballooning national debt, public spending raging out of control and tax rises should not be underestimated."Taking immediate action to tackle the deficit must now be the priority. George Osborne should focus on making sufficient savings in public spending to implement a substantial programme of tax reductions."Meanwhile Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at stockbrokers BGC Partners, said the downgrade was not a reason for an economic policy change."Any amount of manipulation by attempted false stimulation of the economy in an attempt to create 'artificial' growth would in my view make an already bad deficit problem even worse," he said."We have all lived beyond our means for far too long."If the UK deficit is to be brought down and the task of reducing the debt mountain begun, Mr Osborne has no option but to stick to his guns."We are light years away from returning to growth."

Indian tycoon donates $2bn to charity

Indian software tycoon Azim Premji said Saturday he has given $2.3bn to an education charity that he controls, reportedly the biggest charitable donation in the country's recent history.It is his second recent big donation after giving almost $2bn to the charity in 2010, and came shortly after he joined the Giving Pledge club set up by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and billionaire investor Warren Buffet.In Saturday's donation, the chairman of software firm Wipro transferred shares worth $2.3bn from the company to a trust which controls the education charity Azim Premji Foundation, a company statement said.The billionaire, who inherited a cooking oil company and transformed it into India's third-biggest outsourcing services firm, said the trust will use the funds to scale up the foundation's activities "significantly". The charity seeks to boost the quality of India's overstretched education system by improving teacher quality and setting up model schools.The Business Standard newspaper and other media reported it was the biggest one-off donation to charity in India in modern times.The media-shy tycoon is India's third wealthiest individual with a net worth of some $16bn, according to a 2012 Forbes rich list.Premji, whose trust funds initiatives including rural education and teacher training, has long promoted education as a way to tackle India's deep poverty.He told a recent World Economic Forum in Davos that "education is perhaps the most powerful enabler of human life and equity".A few days ago, he became the first Indian to join the Giving Pledge club, which encourages the world's wealthiest to donate at least half their fortunes to charity.Those who are "privileged to have wealth should contribute significantly to try and create a better world for the millions who are far less privileged," Premji said when joining the club.The billionaire's donation comes amid growing disquiet in India about the yawning divide between the country's burgeoning wealthy class and the hundreds of millions still living in deep poverty.A 2012 report on philanthropy by global consultancy Bain noted a "striking imbalance" in India, noting it was home to one of the world's fastest-growing wealthy populations but also one in three of the world's malnourished children.While the report noted that philanthropy was on the rise, it added there was "significant room for improvement if India is benchmarked against the US, one of the world's leaders in private giving".With Premji's latest donation, his educational charitable trust's shareholding in Wipro will go up to nearly 20%.

Horsemeat scandal: Now health fears

Horsemeat containing a drug potentially harmful to humans has likely entered the food chain, France said on Saturday, adding health concerns to the food scandal raging across Europe.A spokesperson for the French agriculture ministry told AFP several horse carcasses containing the drug Phenylbutazone have probably ended up being eaten by consumers.Phenylbutazone is an anti-inflammatory treatment for horses which is potentially harmful to humans and by law is supposed to be kept off plates.Britain alerted Paris that six tainted carcasses had been exported to France in January, but the meat had already been processed by the time the warning came.Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll said that although some of the meat had been recalled, the equivalent of three carcasses had "probably" made it to consumers, but added there was "no health risk" since the traces of phenylbutazone found in the meat were "extremely weak".The minister underscored that the find was in no way connected with the wider horsemeat scandal however, since the meat had not been disguised as beef.But the announcement still added a new dimension to the scandal over mislabelled meat that erupted in Europe in January after horsemeat was initially found in so-called beef ready-made meals and burgers in Britain and Ireland. Since then, supermarkets across the continent have pulled prepared meals from their shelves, with effects felt as far away as Hong Kong, where an imported brand of lasagne has been withdrawn from stores. On Saturday, Italy joined the long list of countries that have been hit by the fraud, reporting its first case of horsemeat-contaminated lasagne. The horsemeat was found in tests on six tons of mincemeat and 2 400 "lasagne bolognese" packages produced by a central Italian company that had used meat from suppliers based in the northern part of the country.The tests were carried out as part of sweeping checks by police on 121 brands across the country.French President Francois Hollande said on Saturday that he would push for mandatory labelling of meat in ready-made meals."I want there to eventually be mandatory labels on the meat contained in prepared meals," Hollande said while visiting an agricultural show in Paris."Until then, I will support... all initiatives for voluntary labelling" so that "consumers know the origin of the products they are consuming, especially meat".French firm Spanghero has been at the heart of the scandal after it allegedly passed off 750 tons of horsemeat as beef, with the product eventually finding its way into 4.5 million "beef" products sold across Europe.French authorities had initially suspended the company's sanitary license, but following protests from 300-odd workers allowed the company to resume production of minced meat, sausages and ready-to-eat meals.The company was banned, however, from stocking frozen meat.In Ireland, authorities on Friday suspended production at a meat processing plant after investigators found it was selling horsemeat labelled as beef.B&F Meats, a small company licenced to debone beef and horsemeat in Carrick-on-Suir in County Tipperary, was found to be sending horsemeat to a customer in the Czech Republic, the Irish agriculture ministry said in a statement.The label in the Czech language refers to beef, it added.

North Korea ups readiness, tensions

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has overseen a military drill, state media said on Saturday, his third such inspection in as many days as tensions run high following Pyongyang's third nuclear test.Accompanied by top military commanders, Kim watched a flight exercise and a paratrooping drill by the Korean People's Army, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said."He called on the KPA service personnel to put spurs to making preparations for going into action, keeping themselves at maximum alert at all times."Once the enemies make a provocation, you should give full play to the inexhaustible combat capability to deal deadly blows at them ... and blow up their strongholds of aggression," he was quoted as saying by KCNA.The state news agency did not to give the date of the visit but it was believed Kim's latest trip was on Friday.KCNA said on Friday Kim had also inspected a tactical attack exercise combined with live shell firing.On Thursday, KCNA reported he had visited KPA Unit 323, which is believed to be an anti-air missile unit.North Korea on 12 February carried out its third nuclear test in seven years in what it says was a riposte to the US hostility shown in the widening of existing UN sanctions following its satellite launch in December last year.World powers on the UN Security Council united to condemn the nuclear test, and the US led calls for tougher sanctions.But Pyongyang has threatened still stronger action, defying warnings of United Nations measures.North Korea is already under international sanctions for conducting two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, which both came after long-range rocket launches.

Hundreds pray for Hugo Chavez

Hundreds of Venezuelans held a candlelight vigil Friday for President Hugo Chavez, praying for their leader while he remained in a hospital undergoing cancer treatment.Chavez's supporters gathered on a wide stairway in a hillside park near the presidential palace. They lit candles at sunset and sang along with a recording of a healthy Chavez belting out the national anthem.Some wiped away tears. Others closed their eyes and prayed.Some said they felt sad, yet still hopeful that Chavez might be able to survive."We're praying for the president, for him to get through all of this," said Ana Perez, a seamstress holding a candle and shielding her flame from the breeze with a piece of paper.Her eyes filled with tears as she talked about Chavez. "There is no other president like this one. He's unique," she said, wiping a wet cheek."He's going to come out of all of this, and he's going to get better," Perez said. "He's survived many hard things. He's strong."A group of indigenous people wearing colourful dresses, beads and feathers danced around a bonfire at the base of the stairs. One man blew on a conch shell, while others shook maracas as they danced around the flames.Chavez hasn't been seen since he returned to Venezuela on Monday from Cuba, where for 10 weeks he was recovering and fighting complications following his latest cancer surgery on 11 December.Vice President Nicolas Maduro said on Friday night that he and other officials had met with Chavez at the military hospital. Maduro said Chavez is continuing to undergo treatment for "respiratory insufficiency" and is breathing through a tracheal tube, which hinders speech."He communicated with us through various written ways to give us his guidance," Maduro said, speaking on television alongside other aides at the hospital. Maduro said Chavez was smiling and in an energetic mood, "with an immense strength of will."He said they talked with Chavez in three sessions lasting about five hours. "We came out filled with his strength," Maduro said.During the vigil, some in the crowd held photos of Chavez while a preacher spoke from a stage, saying: "The president is going to be healthy!"Lissette Cordero, who stood holding a candle next to her 5-year-old son, said she's grateful to Chavez for creating government-funded neighbourhood councils and inexpensive state-run food stores.Her son, who also held a candle, looked up at the stage where the minister was speaking and asked, "Is that Chavez?""No," his mother replied with a smile."I have faith he's going to recover. It's hard," she added. "I love him."The government has not given details about the treatment Chavez is undergoing, and hasn't identified the type or exact location of the tumours that have been removed from his pelvic region.Venezuela's opposition has demanded the government provide more specific information about Chavez's condition, and has criticized a decision by lawmakers last month that indefinitely postponed his swearing-in ceremony for a new six-year term.Two prominent Venezuelan jurists asked the Supreme Court on Thursday to determine whether Chavez is fit to remain in office. Former Supreme Court President Cecilia Sosa Gomez and professor Jose Vicente Haro called for the court to appoint a board of medical experts to determine whether Chavez is in physical and mental shape to remain president.They argued that if Chavez is fit to be president, the court should proceed to hold a public swearing-in.Government officials insist Chavez remains in charge and has been communicating with government officials about policy decisions and signing documents.Foreign Minister Elias Jaua read a lengthy letter from Chavez on Friday to a gathering of African and South American leaders in Equatorial Guinea.In the letter, which ran for about 1, 00 words, Chavez said he was sorry not to be able to attend the meeting. Chavez denounced Western military intervention in countries such as Libya in recent years, and called for more "South-South co-operation."The letter ended with the words: "We will live and be triumphant!"Prayer gatherings for Chavez this week have included a ceremony where indigenous shamans danced on Thursday, attended by Guatemalan indigenous activist Rigoberta Menchu.Menchu, who received the 1992 Nobel Peace Prize, said she had come to Venezuela "as one of the Maya spiritual guides" with knowledge of medicinal traditions."I'm completely sure that President Hugo Chavez has received the cosmic energies. He has received the strength of our Mother Earth. ... He is going to overcome big obstacles," Menchu said Friday at a televised event where she spoke alongside Maduro.As for Chavez, she said, "He has to have sufficient rest so that he can recover the strength of his vital energies as soon as possible."

NEWS,19.1.2013

Obama kicks off inauguration weekend

President Barack Obama on Saturday was heading up a national day of service, kicking off a whirlwind weekend of inauguration events that mark the end of his historic first term and the start of his second. Obama added the day of service projects in 2009 and hopes it will become a tradition for future presidents. He and first lady Michelle Obama planned to volunteer in the Washington area, as did Vice President Joe Biden and his wife, Jill.The president will be officially sworn in for his second term on Sunday in a small ceremony at the White House. He'll take the oath of office again on Monday before hundreds of thousands of people on the National Mall, followed by the traditional parade and formal balls. Thousands of workers and volunteers were making final preparations for the celebration. Hotels and government buildings along the parade route were adorned with red, white and blue bunting. White tents, trailers and generators lined the Mall.Yet there is decidedly less energy surrounding Obama's second inauguration than there was in 2009. That history-making event drew 1.8 million people for the swearing-in of the nation's first black president. This time, Obama takes the oath of office following a bruising presidential campaign and four years of partisan fighting. He's more experienced in the ways of Washington. He has the gray hair and lower approval ratings to show for it.For at least the inauguration weekend, the fiscal fights and legislative wrangling will be put aside in favour of pomp and circumstance.The White House did not say in advance what Obama's service project would be. In 2009, he helped spruce up a shelter for homeless teens in one of Washington's porter neighbourhoods then visited wounded soldiers at Walter Reed Army Medical Centre.In an effort to expand the day of service, former first daughter Chelsea Clinton was headlining a volunteer summit on the Mall. The inaugural committee organised volunteer events in all 50 states.

The Re-emergence of Europe: Why Exiting the Euro Is a Bad Idea

At the height of Europe's debt and banking crisis it seemed temptingly easy to simply jettison the euro altogether and opt for national devaluation. Sometimes, if a country's currency is overvalued in real terms and it looks like the current account is going to be in deficit for the foreseeable future, devaluation can make sense. But the fallacy put about was that this process would be relatively easy and could be done without too much collateral damage to the rest of Europe. This fallacy only served to exacerbate the crisis in 2010 and 2011, creating unnecessary, time-wasting and distracting noise around the policy options. An overwhelming number of economists, international civil servants and policy-makers argue that a fragmentation of the Eurozone would cause a new depression and massive wealth destruction around the world. It would also end the period of economic integration that has characterized world politics since the end of the Cold War. All banks that have looked at the implications of a euro break-up reach roughly similar conclusions. For example, Swiss bank UBS estimates that it would cost each southern European economy up to 40 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) in the first year. And ING predicts that the Eurozone as a whole, including Germany, could see a 9 percent drop in GDP in the first year following break-up. In short, the cost of devaluation would far exceed the supposed benefits. Here is why:If even one country, large or small, were to leave the euro, the Eurozone would effectively rupture. The important founding notion of solidarity would be broken. Old rivalries could be reignited. If a highly productive economy such as Germany were to exit, it would mark the end of a 60-year commitment to a stable Europe. If a less productive economy exited, it would almost instantly become a pariah, exporting its pain to its neighbours.Switching back to an old currency would also be a technical challenge and have to be done quickly. Who would set the exchange rate? New coins would have to be minted, new currency printed and new interest rates set by the central bank. Everything that was paid in euros from national debt to teachers' salaries would have to be switched back as quickly as possible to avoid financial chaos. Unravelling a system that took three years to put in place would be much harder than people think. There would probably be a run on the banks, as depositors stampeded to withdraw their money, fearing for the value of their savings. Governments would be forced to impose withdrawal limits. Legal challenges and a likely credit crunch would follow, if Argentina's forced devaluation in 2002 is anything to go by. Investors would sell off assets and dump the country's bonds.In addition, the government would almost certainly default on its foreign euro-denominated debt, leading to possible bank collapses at home and across the rest of Europe; such is the interdependence of the banking system. Access to international capital markets would be denied possibly for years forcing the country to bring its budget into balance immediately. The one potential advantage is that its debt, now redenominated in the new currency, might be significantly lower. But while a devalued currency might make exports cheaper and therefore more attractive to foreign buyers, imports would become more expensive and cause a decrease in real incomes. It may improve the current account position temporarily, but it will not necessarily lead to longer term growth. Devaluation does not address the fundamentals of competitiveness. Restructuring the economy over the long term cannot be avoided.Apart from all this, there is no legal framework for a member country to re-establish its own currency or for one member to expel another. Leaving would have far-reaching implications for a country's politics, finances, economy, society and future.

Maduro active in Chavez's absence

Venezuela's vice president stepped into the shoes of ailing President Hugo Chavez in a flurry of public events on Friday, working to maintain an image of government continuity after more than five weeks of unprecedented silence from the normally garrulous president.Vice President Nicolas Maduro and other Cabinet ministers have striven to assure a nervous public that Chavez's administration is firmly in charge even as the opposition challenges its legitimacy. Chavez has been out of sight in Cuba since undergoing cancer surgery on December 11.Among three televised events held nationwide on Friday, Maduro helped opened a school in Chavez's home state of Barinas alongside the president's elder brother, Adan, who is the state's governor."We're all Chavez. We have to feel that way," Maduro said during the school visit. "We all love Chavez from our hearts."The vice president, whom Chavez designated last month as his chosen successor, also visited an agricultural training centre in Lara state, where he insisted on the importance of "socialist efficiency". He then spoke to National Guard troops in western Zulia state, blaming materialistic values for exacerbating crime. A day earlier on Thursday, Maduro presided over the inauguration of a housing project in Caracas.Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez gave an update on the government's efforts to build new public housing for the poor, saying more than 400 000 homes are currently under construction nationwide. "All the programmes of the revolution continue and will continue," Ramirez told reporters on Friday. "The revolutionary government hasn't stopped, not one minute. "Opposition leaders have said the government violated the constitution by indefinitely postponing Chavez's swearing-in past January 10, a stance that has been dismissed in a ruling by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, a president known for speaking and singing on television for hours at a time has not uttered a word or appeared on television since December 10. Even his popular and normally busy Twitter account has gone dark since early November. Maduro and other government leaders don't enjoy anywhere near the level of public adoration that Chavez does, but the president's followers have still embraced him as his anointed stand-ins. Critics note that while many Venezuelans remain on edge awaiting news of Chavez's condition, the government faces serious challenges ahead. The opposition newspaper Tal Cual headlined an editorial by journalist Fernando Rodriguez on Monday saying Venezuela is now a "headless country"."Who's in charge in this country?" Rodriguez asked. He noted that Venezuela is being battered by 20 percent inflation, shortages of some types of food and that hundreds were murdered last month during the holidays.Rodriguez wrote that as he sees it, "The country is standing still."

NEWS,01.01.2013

'Fiscal cliff' plan goes to Republican House

A legislative fix to patch up America's fiscal crisis will be taken up by lawmakers in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Tuesday after passing the Senate overnight.The White House and top Republicans struck a deal after dramatic 11th-hour negotiations to avert huge New Year tax hikes and postpone automatic spending cuts that had threatened to send the US economy back into recession.If the legislation passes the House as expected, it will represent a win for President Barack Obama as it raises taxes on the richest Americans albeit above an income threshold higher than he and other Democrats had wanted.But the victory will be hollow as it fails to tackle the deep spending cuts needed to resolve America's austerity crisis, setting up the prospect of another bitter Washington battle at the start of Obama's second term.After months of agonising over the crisis, weeks of debate about a possible solution, and days of intense, closed-door bartering, the US Senate voted overwhelmingly 89-8 early Tuesday to pass a controversial bill that averts the so-called "fiscal cliff".Hiked tax ratesAlthough the midnight deadline was technically missed, any serious impact on the world's biggest economy will be avoided as long as legislation passes the House of Representatives in the coming days.Obama issued a statement shortly after the 02:00 (07:00 GMT) Senate vote, urging lawmakers in the Republican-controlled House to "pass it without delay." A vote could come as early as Tuesday.If the measure is agreed by both chambers of Congress, tax rates will be hiked on households earning over $450 000 a year but remain where they are for everyone else.While not matching Obama's campaign threshold of $250 000, it would represent a major concession from Republicans who have stuck solidly to a pledge of no higher taxes since then president George HW Bush failed to win re-election in 1992 after breaking a promise not to raise rates"While neither Democrats nor Republicans got everything they wanted, this agreement is the right thing to do for our country and the House should pass it without delay," Obama said in his statement.he deal puts off $109bn in budget cuts across the government for two months, setting the stage for a new showdown between Obama's Democrats and Republicans in dysfunctional Washington at the end of February, just weeks after the president is sworn in for his second term.Winning over RepublicansHad no deal been struck, experts warned that the fragile US economy could have been sent spinning back into recession due to the $500bn combined whack of spending cuts and tax hikes.It remains for Republican House Speaker John Boehner to rally his restive conservative coalition around the pact, which will likely need some Democratic votes in the House to pass.For two decades, Republicans have fought any attempt to raise taxes. So White House officials will see vindication in a deal that enshrines one of Obama's top pledges in his re-election campaign.In a terse statement, Boehner said his chamber would pick up the legislation if it passed the Senate."Decisions about whether the House will seek to accept or promptly amend the measure will not be made until House members and the American people have been able to review the legislation," he said.‘Deal better than the alternative’Democrats suggested that the deal, like many congressional bargains, was not perfect, but that it was preferable to the alternative."It's not that this proposal is regarded as great or is loved in any way. But it's a lot better than going over the cliff," Senator Chuck Schumer told reportersWorld stock markets, expected to be thrown into turmoil by a failure to beat the deadline, are closed New Year's Day, so lawmakers have a few extra hours of breathing room to get the deal concluded.The legislation will also extend tax credits for clean energy firms and unemployment insurance for two million people that had been due to expire.And it includes an end to a temporary two percent cut to payroll taxes for Social Security retirement savings - meaning all Americans will pay a little more - and changes to inheritance and investment taxes.Relief seemed to course through the Senate during and after the vote, but both sides were already gearing up for the next legislative showdown, over the need to lift the government's statutory borrowing limit of $16.4trillion, reached on Monday.The Treasury will take extraordinary measures to keep the government afloat for an undisclosed period of time until the ceiling is raised. Republicans are already demanding spending cuts in return.That fight will now be doubled as it is likely to coincide with the new deadline for the two-month sequester postponement set up by the fiscal cliff agreement.

Activists release anti-North Korea leaflets

South Korean activists launched balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border on Tuesday as North Korea joined a global party by greeting the New Year with fireworks.About 30 activists released seven balloons carrying 28 000 leaflets in the northern border town of Gwanjeonri in Cheorwon County, shouting "Down with North Korea's dynastic dictatorship!"The launch sparked scuffles with ten local residents who voiced fear of North Korean reprisals, but there were no injuries thanks to quick intervention by police.The launch went ahead despite repeated threats from Pyongyang of military strikes against such exercises.The leaflets launched on Tuesday urged North Koreans to rise up against their new leader Kim Jong-Un and included pictures of overthrown strongmen like Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.Kim, in his late 20s, came to power after his father and long-time leader Kim Jong-Il died in December 2011.In Pyongyang, the new leader started the New Year by watching a musical performance and fireworks, according to the official Korean Central News Agency."Fireworks were displayed to beautifully decorate the nocturnal sky above Pyongyang and bells rang on the New Year," it said.

Venezuelans pray as Chavez health worsens

Backers of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez prayed and called off New Year's Eve festivities on Monday as the cancer-stricken leftist leader took a turn for the worse, fuelling doubts about his political future.Venezuelans prayed in church and a downtown square after the government announced that Chavez suffered "new complications" from a respiratory infection following his fourth cancer-related surgery on 11 December in Cuba.His vice president and political heir, Nicolas Maduro, broke the news from Havana on Sunday night, saying the condition of the 58-year-old leader was delicate and that he faced an uphill battle.Maduro decided to stay in Cuba for "the next few hours" to check on the ubiquitous "Comandante," the face of the Latin American left and fierce critic of the United States who has led the oil-rich nation for 14 years.RumoursJorge Arreaza, Venezuela's science and technology minister as well as the president's son in law, took to Twitter to try to tamp down rampant social media speculation that the end might be near, or had already come."My fellow countrymen: do not believe ill-intentioned rumours. President Chavez has spent the day calmly and stable, with his children at his side," said Arreaza who is in Cuba with other family members.Back in Caracas, crews took down the stage of a downtown concert site while Information Minister Ernesto Villegas invited Venezuelans to gather at Plaza Bolivar to "pray with joy and optimism" for Chavez."I deeply love him and would give my life for him. There should be millions like Chavez," Haydee Dominguez, a 50-year-old secretary, said at the gathering led by Villegas.Others teared up at the San Francisco church while several ministers attended a special mass for Chavez at the Miraflores presidential palace at midday.At a meeting point for Chavez followers in Plaza Bolivar, "Chavistas" choked up as they contemplated the health of their leader."We are all praying for the health of our comandante," said Miriam, one of the people gathered at the square. "There can't be any party here."Election Chavez had declared himself cancer free in July, more than a year after being diagnosed with the disease in the pelvic region. The exact nature of the cancer has never been made public.He was re-elected in October but announced a relapse earlier this month and rushed to Cuba for another operation.On Monday on Twitter, hashtags translating into expressions such as "Chavez will live and conquer" and "I love Chavez" were numerous, while others speculated about his health.One of the people discussing Chavez's health was Jose Rafael Marquina, a Venezuelan doctor who lives in the United States and has claimed in the past to have reliable sources informing him about the president."The respiratory failure continues without any improvement and the kidney function continues to deteriorate," he wrote on Twitter.The government has denied such rumours.OppositionChavez is scheduled to be sworn in on January 10 but the government has indicated that the ceremony could be postponed if the president is not fit by then.Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chavez in the 7 October election, predicted on Monday that there would be "big changes" in 2013.The opposition coalition, Democratic Unity Table, called for dialogue with the government to deal with what it called an "emergency".Veppex, a Miami-based association of 25 000 Venezuelans living outside their country as refugees or political exiles, insisted the constitution must be respected verbatim and new elections held if Chavez is indisposed.Under Venezuela's constitution, a presidential election must be held within 30 days if the head of state is incapacitated or dies before his inauguration or within the first four years of his term.Swearing inThe government is trying to work out how to "resolve that obstacle", said Luis Vicente Leon, head of pollsters Datanalisis, who said it was clear now that Chavez was in a critical condition.As the constitution says he must be sworn in on 10 January, "anything else will be hard to sell without it being construed as an institutional coup", Leon said.But Maduro and parliament speaker Diosdado Cabello have left the door open for Chavez to be sworn in at a later date by the Supreme Court.Cabello has even said that new elections will not be convened on 10 Januar, nor will he himself take over temporarily, as the constitution stipulates, if Chavez is out of the picture.

NEWS,05.10.2012

Venezuela's Chavez faces cliffhanger election

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez faces the toughest election of his 14-year rule on Sunday in a vote pitting his charisma and oil-financed largesse against fresh-faced challenger Henrique Capriles' promise of jobs, safer streets and an end to cronyism.Chavez, 58, staged a remarkable comeback from cancer this year and wants a new six-year term to consolidate his self-styled socialist revolution in the OPEC nation.Capriles, a boyish 40-year-old state governor, has run a marathon eight-month campaign of house-by-house visits that have galvanised the historically fractured opposition and set up its best shot at the presidency since Chavez's election in 1998.Defeat for Chavez would defenestrate Latin America's leader of anti-US sentiment while potentially boosting oil companies' access to the world's largest crude reserves.Victory would allow Chavez to continue a wave of nationalisations and consolidate control over the economy, though a recurrence of his cancer would weaken his leadership and possibly give the opposition another chance.In torrential rain, red-shirted supporters of the president filled much of downtown Caracas on Thursday for his final rally."Chavez will not fail the Venezuelan people," the president said, soaked to the skin in a dark raincoat, on a stage before a sea of fans. "You know that my loyalty to the people almost brought me to the point of death. This is my path."The former military officer, who survived a short-lived coup in 2002, has developed a near cult-like following by casting himself as a messianic reincarnation of 19th century liberation hero Simon Bolivar while pushing billions of dollars in oil revenue into social programmes.Most best-known pollsters put Chavez in front. But two have Capriles just ahead, and his numbers have edged up in others.The opposition leader has had more momentum in the final days of the campaign and he is confidently predicting victory."The time has come to leave the past behind," the opposition leader told a cheering crowd on Thursday, wrapping up a grueling months-long series of rallies across the country.The vote is also a cliffhanger for other left-wing governments in the region, from Cuba to Ecuador, who depend on Chavez's discounted oil sales and generous financial assistance.Emotional ties Seamlessly flipping from jocular prankster to blustering anti-capitalist crusader, Chavez's stories of his poor but happy childhood in a small village have helped him create an emotional bond with poor Venezuelans who see him as one of the family.For nearly a decade, he has won over voters with free health clinics, subsidized groceries and new universities.Over the last year he launched programs to give pensions to the elderly, stipends to poor mothers, and tens of thousands of new homes were handed over on live TV to tearful supporters.Everywhere Chavez has gone on the campaign trail, supplicants have shouted to him asking for help getting a home or a job, or thrust hand-written letters at his staff."I work for the state and I'm offended that the loser (Capriles) says we're made to attend and made to wear red!" said Paulo Garralaga, at Thursday's giant rally in Caracas. "I came to support Chavez and to tell him I'm going to vote for him."Yet day-to-day issues are overshadowing ideological fervor.Nationalisations have weakened private enterprise and given party apparatchiks growing control over jobs. Weak law enforcement, dysfunctional courts and plentiful arms have made Venezuela more violent than some war-zones. Frequent blackouts are an annoying reminder of squandered oil income."Each one of you should make a list of the problems that you have, and ask yourself, how many of those problems has this famous revolution solved for you?" the wiry and sports-loving Capriles intoned at one of his final rallies.The business-friendly law graduate easily won an opposition primary election in February and has united anti-Chavez parties like no one before him. His rallies have been notably more energetic and swollen with ecstatic fans in the final weeks.Sporadic violence has dogged the campaign, with three Capriles activists shot dead last weekend, demonstrating the volatile atmosphere and potential for violence around the vote.Capriles has promised to shed Chavez's doctrinaire vision of a state-led economy for a pragmatic balance between social welfare and free enterprise. He calls himself an admirer of Brazil's market-friendly left, which has pulled close to 35 million people into the middle class over a decade.Chavez has made ample use of state resources to bolster his campaign, speaking for hours about the virtues of socialism in "chain" broadcasts that all public access channels are required to run. The electoral authority has demurely declined to regulate such broadcasts, calling them "institutional" messages.Despite complaints of Chavez's advantages, opposition leaders say they see little risk of fraud during the electronic balloting itself. There will be no formal international observation of the vote, though local groups will be present and voting centers will have witnesses from both sides.Chavez's frequent vote victories over the last 14 years have undermined shrill opposition criticism that he is a dictator.But he has never had to hand over power. Though he accepted defeat in a 2007 referendum on his proposed overhaul of the constitution, in less than a year he used special decree powers to make many of the changes that voters had rejected.A win for Chavez could prompt a sell-off of Venezuelan bonds, which have risen steadily since June and jumped in recent weeks as investors bet on a possible Capriles win.Venezuela's heavy borrowing has made its debt among the most actively traded emerging market bonds - creating an odd romance between Wall Street and one of the world's most virulent critics of capital markets.Capriles is promising to improve the country's finances by cutting wasteful expenditures and halting politically motivated gifts to allied left-wing and anti-American nations."President Chavez, I thank you for what you have been able to do," the opposition leader said at his final campaign rally, in Lara state, in a rare direct use of his opponent's name."With the greatest respect: the time has come to move forward, and you will not be able to stop the people's advance."

Washington Doesn't Like Democratic Elections in Venezuela, Because of the Result

On May 30, Dan Rather, one of America's most well-known journalists, announced that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez would die "in a couple of months at most." Four months later, Chávez is not only alive and campaigning but widely expected to win re-election on Sunday. Such is the state of misrepresentation of Venezuela it is probably the most lied-about country in the world  that a journalist can say almost anything about Chávez or his government and it is unlikely to be challenged, so long as it is negative. Even worse, Rather referred to Chávez as "the dictator"a term that few, if any, political scientists familiar with the country would countenance.Here is what Jimmy Carter said about Venezuela's "dictatorship" a few weeks ago: "As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we've monitored, I would say that the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world."Carter won a Nobel Prize for his work through the election-monitoring Carter Center, which has observed and certified past Venezuelan elections. But because Washington has sought for more than a decade to de-legitimize Venezuela's government, his viewpoint is only rarely reported. His latest comments went unreported in almost all of the U.S. media.In Venezuela, voters touch a computer screen to cast their vote and then receive a paper receipt, which they then verify and deposit in a ballot box. Most of the paper ballots are compared with the electronic tally. This system makes vote-rigging nearly impossible: to steal the vote would require hacking the computers and then stuffing the ballot boxes to match the rigged vote.Unlike in the United States, where in a close vote we really have no idea who won (see Bush v. Gore, 2000), Venezuelans can be sure that their vote counts. And also unlike the U.S., where as many as 90 million eligible voters will not vote in November, the government in Venezuela has done everything to increase voter registration (now at a record of about 97 percent) and participation.Yet the U.S. foreign policy establishment (which includes most of the American and Western media) seethes with contempt for Venezuela's democratic process. In a report timed for the elections, the so-called "Committee to Protect Journalists" says that the government controls a "media empire," neglecting to inform its readers that Venezuelan state TV has only about 5-8 percent of the country's television audience. Of course, Chávez can interrupt normal programming with his speeches (under a law that pre-dates his administration), and regularly does so. But the opposition still has most of the media, including radio and print media -- not to mention most of the wealth and income of the country. The opposition will most likely lose this election not because of the government's advantages of incumbency  which are abused throughout the hemisphere, including the United States. If they lose, it will be because the majority of Venezuelans have dramatically improved their living standards under the Chávez government. Since 2004, when the government gained control over the oil industry and the economy had recovered from the devastating, extra-legal attempts to overthrow it (including the 2002 U.S.-backed military coup and oil strike of 2002-2003), poverty has been cut in half and extreme poverty by 70 percent. And this measures only cash income. Millions have access to health care for the first time, and college enrollment has doubled, with free tuition for many students. Inequality has also been considerably reduced. By contrast, the two decades that preceded Chávez were one of the worst economic failures in Latin America, with real income per person actually falling by 14 percent from 1980-1998.In Washington, democracy has a simple definition: does a government do what the State Department wants them to do? And of course here, the idea of politicians actually delivering on what they promised to voters is also an unfamiliar concept. So it is not just Venezuela that regularly comes under fire from the Washington establishment: all of the left and newly independent governments of South America, including Argentina, Ecuador, and Bolivia are in the cross-hairs (although Brazil is considered too big to get the same treatment except from the right). But the State Department tries to keep its eyes on the prize: Venezuela is sitting on 500 billion barrels of oil, and doesn't respect Washington's foreign policy. That is what makes it public enemy number one, and gets it the worst media coverage.But Venezuela is part of a "Latin American Spring" that has produced the most democratic, progressive, and independent group of governments that the region has ever had. They work together, and Venezuela has solid support among its neighbors. This is Lula da Silva last month: "A victory for Chávez (in the upcoming election) is not just a victory for the people of Venezuela but also a victory for all the people of Latin America . . . this victory will strike another blow against imperialism." South America's support is Venezuela's best guarantee against continuing attempts by Washington - which is still spending millions of dollars within the country in addition to unknown covert funds to undermine, de-legitimize, and destabilize democracy in Venezuela.

The Lifeline for Damascus and Tehran Is in Putin's Hands

The collapse of the Iranian currency by one-third of its value over a week will leave an impact on Iran's nuclear and strategic ambitions - especially through the gateway of Syria. Russia may thus find itself in need of salvaging its Iranian ally for numerous reasons, among them, its need for Iran in its battle against the United States in its Muslim neighborhood, in the wake of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. There are three schools of thought on where things are going in the relationship between the United States and Iran, and what it entails in terms of indications and repercussions in the Middle East and for Russia.The first states that President Barack Obama - who is likely to win a second term  will not bomb Iran no matter what and that the Islamic Republic of Iran will therefore obtain military nuclear capability, and perform a nuclear test within a year or two.The second states that there is no escaping a military confrontation between the United States and Iran, which would start with an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear sites, followed by Iranian retaliation against economic locations in Arab countries in the Gulf region. Finally, the third states that sanctions are leading Iran to collapse from within, and that the deterioration in the value of the currency and the economy at large will lead to reducing Tehran's ability to fund the regime in Damascus and Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the end of the day, it is purported, Russia will not be able to bankroll Iran and save it at the economic and nuclear levels.Each of those schools of thought advances detailed and noteworthy scenarios. What they have in common is that the Russian-Chinese-Iranian alliance with the regime in Damascus will not be able to maintain President Bashar Al-Assad in power, no matter how long it takes. In addition, prolonging the conflict in Syria will lead to a war of attrition, in a civil war that could lead to dividing Syria in a manner similar to what took place in the former Yugoslavia. Yet opinion is divided over this scenario, with some considering it possible, while others believe otherwise. Another common denominator is the assessment of both US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as both lacking in strategic visions and thinking into long-term interests. Obama is, in the view of some, arrogant and stubborn, as well as an isolationist who lacks the courage to take the initiative and prefers to hide behind the American aversion to further interventions, instead of being a leader who knows where the interest of the United States lies in these times of transitions and new strategic equations. As for Putin, he is, again in the opinion of some, aman of posturing and excessive Russian nationalism, who values himself highly and considers himself to be the leader of a superpower - while Russia remains at the level below. He adopts revenge as a policy in the face of offense, and does not care for the price paid by innocent civilians in return. Vladimir Putin exploited the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) in Afghanistan, then rebelled against it in Libya and is now taking revenge against it over the dead bodies of innocent Syrians. Former US President George W. Bush did favors to both Russia and China in Afghanistan, in his war against terrorism and Islamic extremism. The aim was to eradicate Islamic extremism in Afghanistan before it spreads and reaches the five Muslim republics that surround Russia and come near to China, without Moscow and Beijing participating in covering the exorbitant cost. Barack Obama made the mistake of not satisfying Putin in a so-called "Grand Bargain", including by not granting Russia the port of Tartus. Yet what he is preparing to do in Afghanistan may well unintentionally represent a lethal blow for Vladimir Putin. The withdrawal of the United States within the framework of NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan may well represent the tipping point for Russia to slip into a war against Islamic extremism on its home soil and in its immediate neighborhood in the five Muslim republics. Vladimir Putin will find himself alone in such a confrontation, of which he has sowed the seeds himself in Syria, when he could have done the opposite if he had not made use of his veto for a third time, committing a major strategic blunder in the process.Vladimir Putin may well be forced to wage his own war on terror as George W. Bush had done in the past - and in fact probably believes himself to be doing just that in Syria. Bush summoned Al-Qaeda and groups like it to Iraq and waged the war there in order to keep terrorism away from American cities, as he said. Similarly, Putin contributed to the arrival of jihadists to Syria through the series of vetoes he made use of at the Security Council, in revenge for what NATO did in Libya. He thus encouraged the rise of extremism in Syria, while demonstrations had at the beginning been secular and only demanded reform in Syria. Bush entered into a war with his troops in Iraq. Putin is gathering a budget of around 70 billion dollars to confront the Muslim extremism arriving at his gates. Bush offered Iraq to Iran and played the Shiite-Sunni card based on the fact that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had been the work of Sunnis. Putin is allying himself with Iran on the same confessional basis, but also for reasons connected to his hatred of the United States on the one hand, and of the Arabs on the other. He respects Iran's arrogance and despises the weakness and fragmentation of the Arabs. He also finds a common denominator between himself and Tehran's mullahs in their absolute hatred of the United States and their need to confront it - yet only through proxy wars. This kind of thinking reveals Vladimir Putin's ignorance of both the Arabs and Iran, and it will lead him to take Russia down a slippery slope to collapse, if he does not correct his course quickly before it is too late. What he is doing in Syria is investing against himself in the Muslim republics and in Chechnya. And if he is to correct his course, Syria is the place to start, as it would improve his relations with the leaderships of the Arab Maghreb and would lead him to partner with them, with the Gulf countries and with the United States to eradicate the Jihadist extremism that is spreading in the Arab Maghreb. The interviews conducted by Al-Hayat last week with Libyan President Mohamed El-Magariaf and Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki, show the extent to which this trend has proliferated. There is no use for Russia to be alone in the forefront, and this is what will happen after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, the stronghold of jihadists, as well as the base from which this new jihadist action will be launched against Russia as a result of the stances taken by Vladimir Putin and of his short-sightedness. He will come to regret it. So will China, if it continues to follow the direction into which Putin is taking it. Indeed, it in turn is exposed to this, particularly in Turkestan (Xinjiang), and will suffer after the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan, which will become the center of Russia and China's entanglement with Jihadistextremism. China in turn will foster enmity with the Arabs because of Syria, and will not benefit from allying itself with the losers in Damascus or perhaps in Tehran. Iran will not be among the losers according to the first scenario, adopted by the school that states that it will obtain nuclear capabilities after performing a military nuclear test some say will take place within a year or two. After the test, it will be too late. Then, an arms race will begin in the Gulf region, and there are indications that serious precautionary preparations are being made by some Gulf countries capable of obtaining nuclear capabilities. Then, it will be too late for the United States and for Israel, as they will not be able to rein in Iran or the nuclear arms race in the Arab region. Yet this will not mean salvation for the regime in Damascus, because Iran moving to the level of a nuclear power will make it, in the opinion of some, more cautious and careful not to get implicated in confrontations. Indeed, it will not make use of nuclear weapons even if it obtains them - it will behave like a nuclear power and will avoid proxy wars because it will have no need for them. Thus, according to those who are of this opinion, Tehran will adopt of policy of neglecting the regime in Syria as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, because it will stabilize and position itself at the nuclear level, and rein itself in at the regional level.As for Israel, what is referred to as the "weakness" of its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will lead Iran to move forward at the nuclear level, according to an opinion held by some, especially as the US President will not let himself be dragged into bombing Iran on behalf of Israel. The second scenario is based on the assumption that Israel will direct a military strike against Iranian sites that would implicate the United States and force Obama to intervene militarily, if Iran were to respond to Israel at the military level. Yet there is information indicating that Iran will not take revenge on Israel directly or on American troops in the region, but will rather respond by striking against vital economic locations in Arab countries in the Gulf. Then too, some deem it likely that the United States will not be able to stand idly by and will be forced to strike against Iran, because directing military strikes against such vital economic locations would represent a blow to interests essential to the United States. Thus, according to this scenario, a war between the United States and Iran will take place either way.It is unlikely for Iran's leadership to remain completely silent in the face of an Israeli strike, because this would represent a national offense and would be perceived as weakness at the domestic level. If it does remain silent, this could be because it would have come very close or even become ready to perform a nuclear test. Matters developing in the direction of a war between the United States and Iran will lead to a quicker collapse of the regime in Damascus. Hezbollah could get implicated by using the Lebanese scene as an arena for Iran's revenge on Israel, and thus in turn quickly collapse. Or it could disassociate itself from the issue and choose to reform its ways.The third scenario is based on economic collapse within Iran, which would start with the sharp devaluation of its currency and would go through an economic crisis that would turn the Iranian interior against the leadership in Tehran. Such decay will lead to Tehran being forced to seriously lower the support it is extending to its ally in Damascus, which in turn has entered the cycle of economic erosion and decay. It will also lead to reducing Iranian funding of Hezbollah in Lebanon as well. Indeed, the three of them are subject to economic sanctions that will become increasingly stifling, even if they have tremendous reserves of weapons. No matter how arrogantly they behave, these sanctions will weaken and besiege them. Their lifeline to salvation rests in Putin's hands alone, but he in turn is besieged, after having allowed himself to commit strategic mistakes he may well sorely regret.