NEWS,06.11.2012

What to watch for on US election night

As Americans troop to the polls to decide between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, here's a guide to what to watch for on election night:

Polls close:

The continental United States covers four times zones from east to west. The first polling stations close at 19:00 Eastern Time (00:00 GMT) in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Polls close in California and several other western states at 23:00 Eastern Time (04:00 GMT). Everyone will be watching for early results in the battleground state of Virginia as a potential bellwether of the night ahead.At 19:30 pm Eastern Time (00:30 GMT) polls close in North Carolina and all-important Ohio. A win for Romney in North Carolina, one of the more conservative swing states, would keep his hopes alive. But no Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio, and a loss there would put Romney in a massive hole.Others will start to fall into place after 20:00 Eastern Time (01:00 GMT), when the most populous swing state, Florida, closes along with most eastern states. An Obama win in Florida would be monumental for his re-election hopes, as polls have shown the Sunshine State leaning to Romney in recent weeks.West Coast states generally close three hours later.

Results:

This year, the nation's broadcast networks ABC, CBS and NBC, plus cable giants CNN and FOX, are conducting exit polls of some 25 000 voters, mainly in key states. Those figures, together with telephone polls and vote counts from precincts, will be used in formulating state predictions, which are made only after polls close.Partial results will be posted by some states, and networks will show such results ahead of predicting the state's winner.

Key states:

A candidate must win 270 of 538 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Eleven states, collectively representing a jackpot of 146 electoral votes, are up for grabs, according to RealClearPolitics. As a measure of how tight the race is this year, Obama won every one of these states in 2008. Of the 11, Obama's campaign says traditional Democrat states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in his column. But Republicans have made late campaign moves there.

The Obama scenario:

Based on recent poll averages, Obama is a lock in 18 states totalling 201 electoral votes. He has notable leads in Michigan (16 electoral votes) Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). If Obama holds those states, he needs just Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) to win re-election. Or just Florida (29).Look for Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) as key early tests; if Obama wins one of them, it'll be a long night for Romney.

The Romney scenario:

The challenger's path to victory is narrower. He is assured 24 states representing 191 electoral votes, leaving him 79 short. If Obama holds Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Romney must win two of the three biggest toss-ups - Florida, Ohio and Virginia - as well as most of the other battlegrounds.Look for New Hampshire (4) as a key early test; it's small, but potentially indicative of how the night may turn for Romney.

Congress:

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 33 seats in the Senate. Republicans are expected to hold the House. The Democrats' 53-47 majority in the Senate is more tenuous. A race to watch is the Massachusetts battle between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. Other key Senate contests are in Indiana, Missouri and Virginia.

Early voting:

More than 30% of Americans are expected to vote before Tuesday - either absentee or in person.

Recount?

Each state has its own recount rules. In the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore, some Florida counties launched recounts while others did not. With the prospect of very close results in some states, phalanxes of lawyers on each side are prepared to bring legal action, raising the potential for final result delays.

The Ohio question:

A nightmare scenario may be brewing in crucial Ohio, where authorities sent absentee ballot applications to every voter. People who applied for such ballots but then decide to vote in person will be required to cast provisional ballots that are sealed until it can be proven that they haven't already voted.Some 200 000 provisional ballots may be cast, and state law does not allow them to be opened until 17 November.Complicating the count are mail-in ballots, which can arrive as late as November 16 so long as they are post-marked by 5 November.And if the results are within 0.5 percentage points, an automatic recount of all ballots is triggered.

US: Voters now have centre stage

 

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney have closed out their hard-fought and deeply negative battle for the White House, yielding centre stage to voters who face a stark choice on Election Day between fundamentally different visions for the country's future.After months of campaigning and billions of dollars spent in the battle for leadership of the world's most powerful country, Obama and Romney were in a virtual nationwide tie ahead of Tuesday's election, an overt symptom of the vast partisan divide separating Americans in the early years of the 21st century.Obama appeared to have a slight edge, however, in some of the key swing states such as Ohio that do not vote reliably Democratic or Republican. That gives him an easier path to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
"I feel optimistic but only cautiously optimistic," Obama said on "The Steve Harvey Morning Show." ''Because until people actually show up at the polls and cast their ballot, the rest of this stuff is all just speculation."

Different American versions

Romney also reached out on Ohio drive-time radio, where he said told voters to remember as they go to the polls that the country is hurting financially under Obama's policies. "If it comes down to economics and jobs, this is an election I should win," Romney told Cleveland station WTAM.Under the US system, the winner of the presidential election is not determined by the nationwide popular vote but in state-by-state contests. The candidate who wins a state - with Maine and Nebraska the exceptions - is awarded all of that state's electoral votes, which are apportioned based on representation in Congress.Both sides cast the Election Day choice as one with far-reaching repercussions for a nation still recovering from the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression and at odds over how big a role government should play in solving the country's problems."It's a choice between two different visions for America," Obama declared Monday in Madison, Wisconsin, asking voters to let him complete work on the economic turnaround that began in his first term. "It's a choice between returning to the top-down policies that crashed our economy, or a future that's built on providing opportunity to everybody and growing a strong middle class."Romney argued that Obama had his chance and blew it."The president thinks more government is the answer," he said in Sanford, Florida. "No, Mr. President, more jobs, that's the answer for America."

Jobs on the line

It wasn't just the presidency at stake Tuesday: All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, a third of the 100 Senate seats, and 11 governorships were on the line, along with state ballot proposals on topics ranging from gay marriage to legalising marijuana. Democrats were expected to maintain their majority in the Senate, with Republicans doing likewise in the House, raising the prospect of continued partisan wrangling no matter who might be president.Obama's final campaign rally, Monday night in Des Moines, Iowa, was filled with nostalgia as he returned to the state which launched him on the road to the White House in 2008 with a victory in its lead-off caucuses over Hillary Rodham Clinton, now his secretaryof state. A single tear streamed down Obama's face during his remarks, though it was hard to tell whether it was from emotion or the bitter cold.

Changing times

There has been little of the euphoria that propelled Obama to the White House four years ago, America's first black president promising hope and renovation to a nation weighed down by war and a near financial meltdown.The economy has proven a huge drag on Obama's candidacy as he fought to turn it around after the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, a downturn that was well under way when he replaced George W Bush in the White House on 20 January 2009.Unable to bridge America's fierce partisan divide, especially on taxes and debt, Obama was thwarted in his efforts to pass aggressive plans for jobs creation and deficit reduction.He ended the war in Iraq and the US intelligence and military tracked down and killed Osama bin Laden, but a new host of Middle East crises - especially the war in Syria and the deadly attack on the US Consulate in Libya - shadowed the last months of the campaign.Obama, making his last run for office at the still-young age of 51, urged voters in Iowa to help him finish what they started four years ago. The president credits his auto-industry bailout, stimulus plan and other policies for ending the recession. He points to recent positive economic reports and a slow but steady drop in the unemployment rate.
"I've come back to Iowa one more time to ask for your vote," Obama told 20 000 supporters at the outdoor rally."This is where our movement for change began."

Romney presidency

Romney, 65, assailed Obama's economic policies amid the recession, and promised to bring change that he asserted Obama had only talked about."Talk is cheap, but a record is real," Romney said before a crowd of about 10,000 in New Hampshire on Monday.If elected, Romney would be the first Mormon US president. At times, the former Massachusetts governor has struggled to connect with the protestant evangelicals who are a core constituency of the Republican Party, especially because of his shifting positions on some social issues such as abortion.Romney, the ultra-wealthy founder of a private equity firm, worked doggedly to keep the race instead focused on the economy, and polls suggest that he succeeded in persuading many Americans he has the right credentials to steer America to better times. His selection of the young Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate put Romney squarely on the side of the conservative Tea Party movement that has been a driving force of the Republican Party in recent years.

Debt, taxes

Obama and Romney have spent months highlighting their sharp divisions over the role of government in Americans' lives, in bringing down the stubbornly high unemployment rate, reducing the $1 trillion-plus federal budget deficit and reducing a national debt that has crept above $16 trillion.Obama insists there is no way reduce the staggering debt and safeguard crucial social programmes without asking the wealthy to pay their "fair share" in taxes. Romney, who claims his successful business background gives him the expertise to manage the economy, favours lowering taxes and easing regulations on businesses, saying this would spur job growth.The final Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, released on Monday, showed Obama with support from 50% of likely voters to 47% for Romney. The poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.More than 30 million absentee or early ballots have already been cast, including in excess of 3 million in Florida.

Battleground states

In surveys of the battleground states, Obama held small advantages in Nevada, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin - enough to deliver a second term if they held up, but not so significant that they could withstand an Election Day surge by Romney supporters. Romney appears to be performing slightly better than Obama or has pulled even in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.The biggest focus has been on Ohio, an industrial state that has gone with the winner of the last 12 presidential elections, which both candidates visited on Monday. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.Both campaigns say the winner will be determined by which campaign is better at getting its supporters to the polls. The president needs the overwhelming support of blacks and Hispanics to counter Romney's big lead among white males."I encourage you to stand in line as long as you have to," Vice President Joe Biden told television cameras at a polling place in his home state of Delaware, where he and his wife were among the first voters.Election Day turnout was heavy in several storm-ravaged areas in New York and New Jersey, with many voters expressing relief and even elation at being able to vote at all, considering the devastation from Superstorm Sandy.

Obama, Tearful, Finishes Campaign In Iowa, Where It Started

 

As sentimentality goes, President Barack Obama hosting the last campaign event of his political career in Des Moines, Iowa, is hard to top. The Hawkeye State launched the then-junior senator from Illinois to national prominence. And there is a movie script-like quality to having such a historic political trajectory emerge out of the frosty cornfields. Speaking just steps from his 2008 caucus headquarters on Monday evening, it seemed at times as if the magic hadn't faded. "I came back to ask you to help us finish what we started because this is where our movement for change began," Obama declared. "To all of you who’ve lived and breathed the hard work of change: I want to thank you. You took this campaign and made it your own ... starting a movement that spread across the country."When the cynics said we couldn't, you said yes we can. You said yes we can and we did. Against all odds, we did," he said.Wiping the occasional tear from his eye, and looking over a crowd of 20,000, Obama concluded with the same story that he told on the last day of his '08 campaign: about the origins of his signature "fired-up-ready-to-go" chant. The arc of his first term in office was seemingly complete. But if anything, the late night rally in Des Moines underscored how different Obama's first and second White House runs have been. For all its poignant undertones, Monday night marked the end of a campaign that had little of the emotional appeal of four years ago. There was no sweeping "hope" narrative, no history-making proposition, no shadows of the Bush years to escape. Instead there was a business-like approach to a daunting task: how to re-elect a president with a slate of accomplishments, but with reduced popularity, a poor economy and no novelty. "The biggest difference between 2008 and 2012 is that the sense of the mission changed," said one Obama campaign adviser who, like nearly everyone, would discuss the campaign's inner workings only on condition of anonymity. "In 2008, there was the sense of optimism and hope around the mission of changing the world. In 2012, the mission is as much the clear-eyed recognition of how important stopping the other side is. It is a grimmer, more realistic sense of mission."How Obama's aides traversed this path is a story that will be told in greater detail in the election post-mortems. But months of conversations and notes kept in documents and notepads tells part of the story. And it shows a team that, while lacking the heartstrings of 2008, stayed true to other guiding principles: data-driven decision-making and solid execution. "There has always been a laser-like focus on the part of the campaign on how to get where they need to be," explained Hari Sevugan, who served as a spokesman for the 2008 campaign. "It was about delegates in 2008 and pathways to 270 Electoral College votes in 2012. "The formula, then and now, was always inspiration and energy at 30,000 feet and a no-nonsense attitude toward numbers and mechanics on the ground."It started in the spring of 2011, when top advisers to the president conducted a series of focus groups to get a clear sense of what was in store. What they found was sobering. Voters were gloomy about their current situation. Worse, they assumed their kids would inherit poorer lots than their own. They didn't all blame the president. In fact, they still liked him. But they had to be convinced of two things: That their lives could get better and that Obama was the person who could affect that. To accomplish those two tasks, the president's aides made a series of decisions. The first was to chart specific maps to 270 electoral votes. The second was to figure how best to operate within the boundaries of that map. The third was to unearth ways to make their campaign cash go further than their opponent's. In December 2011, campaign manager Jim Messina unveiled five pathways to victory during a briefing with a group of reporters. Virtually every state he identified as critical has maintained that distinction, with the exception of Arizona (which, even then, was labeled a longshot). There were some miscalculations. Messina assumed that New Hampshire and Wisconsin would both remain solidly in Obama's camp. He also gave equal weight to paths involving North Carolina (now, a reach) as those involving Ohio (less so). But the paths have largely endured. Meanwhile, aides plotted a comprehensive messaging shift and a media campaign to complement it. In December 2011, the president delivered a speech in Kansas designed to break the conversation away from deficit reduction and the debt ceiling debacle and on to job creation and economic security. The campaign booked $25 million worth of ads for May 2012 alone to build off that message. Again, not everything was pitch-perfect. The first two ads focused on clean energy, which would diminish as an issue outside of a few critical states (Iowa and Colorado). But the groundwork was laid. "It's been a very disciplined campaign, incredibly focused," said former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, one of the campaign's top surrogates. "And they have followed their plan as far as I can tell, without any significant deviation." The campaign began to pinch pennies. Aides booked ad purchases in bulk, instead of week by week. They gave a public okay to super PACs, despite the president's previous opposition. And they decided, like in 2008, to hoard resources, rather than share with other Democratic campaign committees. There was one place they splurged. Aides bet big on a ground game, hoping that direct "persuasion" person-to-person contacts could move the dial a few, critical, notches. "We never set out to run the same campaign and the organizational stuff which the president has always strongly believed in -was born out of a necessity of knowing that these states were going to be one- to three-point races if we were lucky," said one top Obama campaign official. And like 2008, staff members had conviction in their strategy. In the early summer, when a lagging jobs market had top Democrats fretting that Romney could win an election focused on the economy, aides scoffed at the proposition. "They are operating under the Woody Allen theory that 90 percent of life is just showing up," one top campaign official said at the time. "But there is such intense scrutiny in candidates for president. If people don't feel comfortable with who you are, it is very tough. In a race that is all about economics, this guy's profile is not a great profile." The official was right. And yet, when the campaign did put a microscope to the Romney profile launching attacks on his private sector record there were howls again. Once more, the campaign didn't budge. "Predictable for our party," another aide said of the criticism over the Bain attacks, "but stupid and wrong." It was easy, of course, to ignore the second-guessing when the plan was proving fruitful. But after the first debate, the campaign's internal resolve was tested. Publicly, aides projected calm. Privately, some were stoked with anxiety over the president's performance. Internal discussions took place over whether to alter the map or message. They tinkered with the latter "they changed their emphasis," said one top consultant to the campaign, "not giving up on the Romney-extremism but focusing more on the shifting positions." But they struck with the former. "Same map, tighter race," is how the aforementioned Obama campaign adviser put the post-debate mindset. The next month was a dizzying scramble that saw the president restore some of what he gave up that night in Denver. But even after Obama gave one final slap of the lectern and wave to the Iowa crowd on Monday, the final verdict is out on whether the decisions he and his staff made were correct. The campaign is projecting confidence. Part of it is common pre-election preening. A lot of it is faith in numbers. But a good deal of it is because, while it may not have the same feel as 2008, they've been here before. "There is no doubt about it," top adviser David Axelrod told The Huffington Post, when asked whether he felt the campaign had a leg up because of experience. "The experience of having done it helps. The people who are running our operations are the people who have been with us for five years."

NEWS,17.06.2012

Greeks vote in election that could decide euro's fate

Greeks have gone to the polls in an election that could decide whether their heavily indebted country remains in the euro zone or heads for the exit, potentially unleashing shocks that could break up the single currency.In an election fought over the punishing austerity package demanded by international lenders as the price of keeping Greece from bankruptcy, opinion polls showed the radical leftist SYRIZA party, which wants to scrap the deal, running neck and neck with the conservative New Democracy, which broadly backs it.The European Union and International Monetary Fund have insisted that the conditions of the 130 billion bailout accord agreed in March must be accepted fully by a new government or funds will be cut off, driving Greece into bankruptcy.All parties say they will keep Greece in the single currency, but SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras believes the agreement can be renegotiated without Greece having to leave, betting that European leaders cannot afford the turmoil that would be unleashed by cutting a member of the euro zone loose.On the right, establishment heir and New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras says rejection of the EU/IMF bailout would mean a return to the drachma and even greater calamity, although he, too, wants to renegotiate some aspects of the package.Opinion polls show Greeks, weary after five years of deep recession, overwhelmingly favour remaining in the euro, but there is bitter anger over repeated rounds of tax hikes, slashed spending and sharp cuts in wages.Many voters are also furious with New Democracy and the other traditional ruling party, the now severely weakened PASOK, blaming them for decades of corruption, waste and inefficiency."It's the first time I feel depressed after voting, knowing that I voted again for those who created the problem, but we don't have another choice," said 66-year-old English teacher Koula Louizopoulou."I voted for the bailout because these are the terms that will keep us in Europe," she said.A win for Greece's national soccer team in a game on Saturday at the Euro 2012 championships provided some lift for voters but there was little sign of enthusiasm at the polling booths, which close at 7pm. Exit polls will follow soon after voting ends.'Staring into the abyss' "It's obvious the country is now staring into the abyss," leading Greek daily Kathimerini said in a front-page editorial on Sunday, calling for the creation of a New Democracy-led "unity" coalition to keep the country in the euro.The party gaining the most votes wins an automatic 50-seat advantage but neither New Democracy or SYRIZA is expected to win an outright majority and whoever emerges as top party will have to hold coalition negotiations with smaller groups.European leaders weighed in on the eve of the vote - a re-run of an earlier election on May 6 that produced no clear winner - some of them openly urging Greeks to reject SYRIZA or risk undermining the very foundations of the single currency.But whoever wins power may find their tenure is short-lived and, despite the insistence of EU politicians, some adjustment of the bailout terms may be inevitable if Greece is to cut a public debt amounting to 165 percent of gross domestic product."It is a scenario I see as likely and if that is the condition presented for Greece to stay and then move on, I would say it is probably something that should be attempted," Angel Gurria, head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.Central banks from Tokyo to London are readying arsenals to defend banks and national currencies against any post-election turmoil. The result will dominate a meeting of the Group of 20 world economic powers on Monday and Tuesday in Mexico.Finance officials in the euro zone have discussed limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM machines, imposing border checks and introducing euro zone capital controls as a worst-case scenario.Euro zone officials have hinted they might give a new Greek government someleeway on how it reaches debt targets set by the EU/IMF bailout package, but there would be no change to the targets themselves.Euro zone paymaster Germany warned Greeks on Saturday the bailout would not be renegotiated."That's why it's so important that the Greek elections preferably lead to a result in which those that will form a future government say: 'Yes, we will stick to the agreements'," Chancellor Angela Merkel told a party conference of her Christian Democrats.A Greek exit from the single currency would heap further pressure on two far larger European economies - Spain has already received up to 100 billion euros to save debt-riddled banks and Italy could be next to seek a bailout.German warning Anger with the establishment parties New Democracy and PASOK propelled SYRIZA and its youthful leader, a former Communist student protest organiser, from the obscure radical fringe to a shock second place on May 6.The far-right Golden Dawn party also won seats in the first election, underscoring the fragmentation of a stressed society wrestling with unemployment of almost 23 percent and plummeting living standards.Five years of recession and more than two years of acute crisis have started to fray the edges of Greek society, undergoing its severest test since the overthrow of the military dictatorship in 1974.The streets of central Athens are scarred by repeated waves of protests, some hospitals are short of vital medicines and reports of suicides caused by the crisis have become routine.Five opinion polls published before a blackout two weeks ago put New Democracy narrowly ahead. Two other polls had SYRIZA leading.But analysts say Samaras, 61, will find it hard to govern for long with an empowered SYRIZA protesting at the gates. Tsipras, if he wins, will inherit a country on the verge of bankruptcy.He has ruled out a government of national unity and promised to nationalise banks and halt privatisations.Some global businesses and banks are already in retreat.Europe's biggest retailer Carrefour said on Friday it was selling up in Greece, a day after French bank Credit Agricole moved to take direct control of its Albanian, Bulgarian and Romanian units from its Greek bank Emporiki.

NEWS,06.05.2012.

France holds breath ahead of tight vote

 

France held its breath on Saturday on the eve of a presidential election that Socialist Francois Hollande was predicted to win despite incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy closing the gap after wooing the far-right.Political speeches and new opinion polls have been banned since a particularly ferocious campaign ended on Friday night, but the last poll published ahead of the deadline forecast a 52-48 per cent win for Hollande.The Ifop-Fiducial poll said Sarkozy has clawed back six percentage points of voter intentions since the end of last week as he went all-out to enchant those who voted for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the first round.With the Socialist’s lead the narrowest since campaigning began, Sarkozy has vowed a surprise, while Hollande has stressed that nothing can be assumed about a first Socialist presidential victory in over a quarter century.“Everything is possible on Sunday,” admitted the left-leaning Liberation’s headline, while the pro-Sarkozy Le Figaro’s front page stressed that French citizens had a “historic choice”.“Electing a president is not a beauty contest,” warned a Le Figaro editorial, apparently targeting Hollande’s image as a soft and convivial consensus builder without ministerial experience.Liberation skewered Sarkozy for dragging his UMP party ever further to the right as he courted National Front voters, vowing to defend French values, limit immigration and strengthen France’s borders. “Whatever the outcome, the political landscape will remain profoundly, durably and dangerously transformed,” it said. French overseas territories were voting on Saturday, before the mass of some 46 million voters goes to the polls on Sunday.Hollande was spending Saturday with his partner Valerie Trierwiler in his political heartland Tulle in central France, while Sarkozy was with his wife, former supermodel Carla Bruni, and their baby daughter Giulia.Hollande won the April 22 first round with 28.63 per cent of the votes to Sarkozy’s 27.18 percent, and both candidates have been fighting for the votes of those whose candidates failed to make the run-off.Le Pen, who won almost 18 percent in the first round, has said she will cast a blank ballot, and observers expect many of her supporters to do the same.Ifop has forecast however that 55 per cent of her voters would back Sarkozy and 19 per cent Hollande.

 

Cameron hails London mayor win

British Prime Minister David Cameron on Saturday hailed fellow Conservative Boris Johnson's re-election as London mayor but it was the sole bright spot for his party as it took a mid-term beating.In local elections on Friday the opposition Labour party took control of 32 councils and won more than 800 seats at the expense of the Conservatives and their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats."I think it was a very strong campaign by Boris. It was based on his record, on the excellent things he has done out there and I am delighted to congratulate him," said Cameron, standing alongside Johnson at City Hall."It was a campaign the whole Conservative party got behind. I enjoyed campaigning for Boris but now what matters is working together for the good of London, as PM, as mayor, and that is exactly what we are going to do."Eccentric Johnson, famed for his dishevelled blond locks and gift for buffoonery, won 51.5 percent of the vote in a closer-than-expected run-off with rival and predecessor, Labour's Ken Livingstone."It was a very hard-fought long campaign," said Johnson, who will now lead London into the Olympic Games in July."I am grateful to the Conservative Party. They did turn out in large numbers to help me but I think we were able to reach people across the city with a message that resonated with them in tough times."British newspapers said Cameron now faces pressure from the right wing of the Conservative party to ditch policies including support for gay marriage, and bring in more radical tax and spending ideas."Now stand up for Tory values," said the right-leaning Daily Mail newspaper, while the left-leaning Guardian said the "drubbing" also boosted Johnson's own credentials for a possible Conservative leadership challenge.The Conservatives lost 12 councils and more than 400 seats in the local elections while the centrist Lib Dems, led by Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, lost one council and lost more than 300 seats.Capping a bad month for the government after Britain slid back into recession, Cameron's push to create the posts of elected mayors in England's biggest cities was widely rejected in referendums.

NEWS,04.05.2012.

US and China in talks as ties at great risk

 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (L) and China's Vice President Xi Jinping attend a dinner at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on May 3, 2012. Clinton on told China that it cannot deny the "aspirations" of its citizens as she opened talks in Beijing marred by a row over a Chinese dissident.The fourth round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue opened here today, with the two global players expected to boost their strategic mutual trust as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits.The current trust gap between Beijing and Washington stems from continual trade disputes, and more importantly, lack of concrete action on the US side to prove that its strategic shift to the Asia-Pacific region poses no threat to China. As a case in point, recent months have seen Washington moving to forge a closer military relationship with Manila through military assistance, warship sales and joint drills. The development comes at a time when the Philippines has been brazenly challenging China’s sovereignty over Huangyan Island, an integral part of China’s territory since ancient times. Despite US claims that it is not taking sides in the issue, its action speaks a louder truth: It is projecting visible influence, just as is desired by the Philippines. To preserve and promote the hard-earned China-US mutual trust, the United States needs to make more earnest efforts, instead of paying only lip service. In regard to trade disputes, many sober minds have pointed out that the punitive duties the United States has repeatedly slapped on Chinese goods are harmful not only to Chinese industries but to the recovering US economy. It is in the interests of both sides that US decision-makers sit down with their Chinese counterparts and negotiate a solution to their trade frictions, rather than simply resort to protectionist measures. In mid-April, China widened the trading band of its currency against the US dollar, a major step towards further increasing the flexibility of the yuan, which has been appreciating against the greenback since 2005. With China committed to reforming the yuan’s exchange rate regime, it is time that the United States discarded the ill-founded argument that its huge trade deficit with China is caused by the yuan’s “artificially low” exchange rate. In addition, the United States needs to play its due part in re-balancing bilateral trade by, among other things, removing the trade barriers against China. (Xinhua)

Polls show Sarkozy gaining on Hollande

Paris - Two polls released on Friday showed President Nicolas Sarkozy trimming Socialist Francois Hollande's lead for France's presidential runoff vote, the latest surveys to show the incumbent gaining ground after Wednesday's televised debate.A survey by pollster BVA showed Hollande taking 52.5% of the vote in Sunday's final round of the presidential election, down two points from late April, with Sarkozy taking 47.5%, a rise of two points.Separately, TNS-Sofres showed Hollande's score edging down 1.5 points to 53.5% from last week, with Sarkozy rising to 46.5% from 45% previously.A majority in the BVA survey still thought Hollande was most convincing in the televised debate, with 40% believing he gained the upper hand, against 31% who preferred the conservative Sarkozy.Four surveys conducted since the face-off have now shown Sarkozy gaining ground, following similar results from Harris Interactive and CSA on Thursday.A separate poll by OpinionWay carried out half before and half after the debate showed the Socialist frontrunner's lead narrowing to five points.Despite Sarkozy's gains, Hollande still retains a comfortable lead for Sunday's vote, with an average of recent opinion polls putting him six points ahead.The latest polls were also conducted before centrist Francois Bayrou's declaration on Thursday that he would not back Sarkozy in the second round, leaving his supporters to make up their own minds.Sarkozy's best hope of winning the vote hinge on his gaining support from at least 80% of far-rightist Marine Le Pen's voters, and around half of Bayrou's. Bayrou said on Thursday he objected to Sarkozy's recent lurch to the right, and that he himself would vote for Hollande.According to Friday's TNS-Sofres survey, 32% of those who voted Bayrou in the first round would vote for Sarkozy on Sunday while 37% would back Hollande. Meanwhile, 52% of Le Pen voters would choose Sarkozy in round two against 7% for Hollande, with a further 41% abstaining.

NEWS,21.04.2012.

France goes to first round of poll

 

After hectic months ot the hustings, France’s presidential contenders go to the first round ofelections on Sunday to whittle down the field of 10 to two frontrunners.The chances of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy winning look increasingly bleak as Socialist candidate Francois Hollande has notched up a commanding lead over UMP ruling party, according to the latest polls conducted in France ahead of the first round. The polls showed Hollande had opened a five-point lead for the first round of voting and a 16-point lead in voting intentions for the May 6 run-off. With those poll results, the Sarkozy camp was hit with the most damning opinion poll for weeks, but somehow Sarkozy briefly overtook Hollande in polls for round one following the Toulouse murders by an Islamist gunman. All in all, however, Hollande has made steady gains in recent days in most polls, with one survey giving him 29 per cent of the first round vote against 24 per cent for Sarkozy.As if the poll showings were not daunting enough, Sarkozy’s campaign was also hit by a potentially damaging revelation when it was revealed that his top donors met last Sunday at the Hotel Crillon, one of Paris’s most expensive and select venues. That meeting was in many quarters considered a major public relations gaffe given the incumbent’s recent attempts to shed his “president of the rich” tag.“That sums up his presidency,” sneered a jubilant Hollande. “He started in a top restaurant, Le Fouquet’s, and ends up in a grand hotel with the same guests.”Even as Sarkozy’s hopes appeared to crumble, some of his closest right-wing ministers openly came out against him, with Fadela Amara, the former town planning minister and a one-time star of Sarkozy’s ethnically diverse “rainbow” cabinet, becoming the latest leading political figure to desert the embattled incumbent.The incumbent’s popularity had earlier dropped dramatically following assertions that Jacques Chirac would vote for Hollande, a development that reportedly made Sarkozy’s popularity rating drop lower than any other French president seeking re-election.After Amara’s desertion other former ministers close to Chirac followed suit, including Brigitte Girardin, the former overseas minister, who said she wished to “end policies that for five years have weakened the country and divided the French”. At the same time Corinne Lepage, an ecologist environment minister in a previous centre-right government, announced that she would back Hollande, arguing that Sarkozy had veered too far to the right. The avalanche of desertions continued with Azouz Begag, the equal opportunities junior minister and Jean-Jacques Aillagon, the former culture minister joining the list of those jumping ship.

Mass rally against Czech regime

Tens of thousands of protesters gathered for an anti-government rally in Prague’s central Wenceslas Square on Saturday as the centre-right ruling coalition was teetering on the verge of collapse.Unions, pensioners, student associations and others angered by austerity cuts and graft scandals teamed up for what they said would be the biggest protest yet against the cabinet of right-wing leader Petr Necas.“The police estimate about 80-90,000 people are in Wenceslas Square right now,” Prague police spokeswoman Eva Kropacova.Union leader Jaroslav Zavadil put the number of protesters at 120,000 before lambasting the cabinet for “humiliating the powerless with its anti-social reforms.”“They promised budgetary responsibility but instead the government debt is growing. They promised to fight graft but corruption has gripped their parties and the entire society,” he told the crowd.The government — comprised of Necas’s right-wing Civic Democrats and the rightist TOP 09 and centrist Public Affairs parties — has vowed to cut the public deficit under 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2013 from 3.5 per cent expected this year.“As the prime minister... I feel responsible for keeping our country out of the debt trap,” Necas said on Saturday as protesters waved banners saying “down with the government,” “no to corruption,” or “an end to thieves and liars.”But Necas’s plans might vanish into thin air soon as the cabinet has lost its majority of 118 in the 200-seat parliament to find itself scrambling for 101 votes following the split-up of Public Affairs earlier this week.Necas gave the Public Affairs faction still backing his cabinet until Monday to secure the votes, and warned of early elections possibly in June.Recent surveys showed the leftist opposition Social Democrats would dominate an early vote ahead of the Communist Party, while Necas’s Civic Democrats would slump to the third place.Marching to Prague’s centre, Jana Sizlingova, a visibly angry pensioner from Prague, said she was fed up with the government that “doesn’t do anything for ordinary people.”“I’m upset with corruption, non-transparent procurement, the health system, the social system — simply, there’s nothing good about this government,” she said.

NEWS,21.02.2012.

Medvedev hosts Russia’s protest leaders

President Dmitry Medvedev hosted leaders of Russia’s protest movement Monday, in a rare move after an outburst of rallies against Vladimir Putin’s likely return to the Kremlin.Medvedev discussed ideas for reforming Russia’s “far from ideal” political system at a meeting that would have been almost unthinkable before mass opposition protests broke out in the aftermath of December parliamentary polls. Leftist radical Sergei Udaltsov, ex-Cabinet Minister Boris Nemtsov and liberal politician Vladimir Ryzhkov – leaders of the movement that organized mass rallies against the authorities – were all present at the meeting.” Our political system is far from ideal and most of those present here subject it to criticism and sometimes very harsh criticism,” Medvedev said at the meeting at his Gorky residence outside Moscow. “There are people here with different political opinions and that is good because we have to understand in what direction our political system will develop,” he said in comments broadcast on state television.Udalstov, Nemtsov and Ryzhkov – whose faces were virtually invisible in state media in the last few years – were shown on state television attending the meeting along with other leaders of unregistered political parties. However state television had not by Monday evening broadcast any of their comments to the Russian president.Nemtsov said ahead of the meeting that he intended to press Medvedev for the release of 37 “political prisoners” and demand constitutional changes barring all presidents from serving three terms. Russian news agencies said that Medvedev discussed his proposals – already submitted to parliament – to bring back elections for regional governors and simplify the procedures for registering parties. However the demands for the protest movement go far beyond this and its leaders have called for the annulment of fraud-tainted Dec. 4 parliamentary election results and far-reaching political reforms.Putin, president from 2000-08, is seeking to reclaim the Kremlin in a March 4 vote after his four-year stint as prime minister. Medvedev would then become prime minister in a job swap vehemently criticized by the opposition. Opinion polls are predicting that Putin will win the election but the opposition has vowed to hold multiple protests afterward to protest his domination of Russian politics. According to a state pollster, Putin will be elected president in the first round of March’s election with more than half the vote, avoiding a run-off that would dent his authority on the eve of his planned return to the Kremlin’s top job.Putin is likely to win 58.6 percent of the vote, far ahead of his closest rival, said Russia’s Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), which has a history of accurately predicting the results of Russian elections.“Putin will gain victory,” the pollster’s general director, Valery Fedorov, told reporters in Moscow. The forecasts were based on a poll of 1,600 people carried out across Russia this month. Second place will go to veteran Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, who is likely to win 14.8 percent, the pollster said. A mood change against Putin among voters in major cities has stoked speculation that the former KGB spy might face the humiliation of winning less than half of the vote, undermining his claims of majority support and triggering a second round.Putin even conceded this month that he may face a second round, though he warned such a step would stoke infighting and undermine Russia’s political stability. But the poll indicates that though Putin is facing the biggest protests of his 12-year rule, his aides believe the former KGB spy can still bring in enough votes to secure another six years as Kremlin chief.Putin’s former chief of staff, Alexander Voloshin, said the latest forecasts for the elections indicated Putin could win 59-61 percent of the vote. The news, he said on Twitter, would make many “sleep more soundly.”VTsIOM forecast that nationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky would win 9.4 percent followed by billionaire financial whizz kid Mikhail Prokhorov with 8.7 percent and former upper house Speaker Sergei Mironov with 7.7 percent. Opponents such as Communist leader Zyuganov and blogger Alexei Navalny say that the election will not be legitimate as officials are bound to falsify the results in Putin’s favor.Putin was clearly taken aback by the scale of the protests against the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections, initially dismissing opponents as the pawns of the West and even branding them chattering monkeys. But as the seriousness of the challenge became evident, Russia’s most popular politician changed track, reshuffling his team and approving some planned changes to open up the tightly controlled political system he still dominates. During the parliamentary election, VTsIOM forecast Putin’s United Russia party would win 48.5 percent of the vote.