NEWS,04.12.2012

Steel reprieve comes at price for Hollande

Francois Hollande's bid to rescue steel furnaces in France's historic industrial heartland was to be the mark of a president on the side of the workers and a state with the courage to bring a multinational to heel.But the two-month stand-off over steel giant ArcelorMittal's  Florange plant in Lorraine has unnerved investors in the eurozone's second largest economy, confused France's unions and exposed his six-month-old government to international ridicule.The dispute began in September with reports that ArcelorMittal would shut the idled furnaces at the plant, the last survivor in the once bustling northeastern steel region. The government immediately ordered the company to restart the furnaces or put them up for sale. Hollande's Socialist allies have hailed as a victory a late-Friday compromise under which ArcelorMittal agreed to invest €180m to expand the site near the German border over five years and hold off making forced redundancies. But as the European steel sector struggles to cope with over-capacity, the furnaces themselves will remain shuttered for now, and questions remain over the exact fate of the some 630 workers employed there and further funding needed for expansion.With unemployment at 14-year highs of 10% and his popularity ratings at record lows for a president only half a year into his mandate, there was clear political advantage for Hollande to lock horns with Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal.But the result is at best a no-score-draw, and the tactics used - anti-business rhetoric and the threat of nationalisation could damage his wider reform effort.While his pugnacious, micro-managing predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy led from the front, Hollande let his ministers lead the fight, creating confusion over who runs industrial policy.Arnaud Montebourg, the firebrand leftist industry minister who pushed the nationalisation option hardest, declared Mittal a persona non grata in France and revealed he had found an anonymous potential buyer ready to invest in the plant.That was lapped up by international critics including London mayor Boris Johnson, who told executives in New Delhi that the "sans culottes" revolutionaries had taken control in Paris and advised them to bring their investment rupees to Britain.Montebourg later retracted his personal attack on Mittal but then had to watch as aides of Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who announced the final accord, briefed media that his putative investor was neither "credible or solid".Facing opposition calls to resign, Montebourg went on local television on Saturday to announce he had Hollande's support and insist he felt "not betrayed, merely let down" by the outcome.But worse than the damage done to the credibility of one of Hollande's most high-profile ministers, many fear the cacophony further shakes France's image as a place to do business just when it needs all the help it can get to avert recession. "It has been a disaster," a senior French banker said last week as the episode unfolded."Even for sophisticated investors who understand that in France there is a difference between the rhetoric and the reality, this is hugely unnerving."Elie Cohen, economist at the CNRS public research institute, told the commercial i Tele television network that by raising the option of nationalisation, Montebourg risked encouraging copy-cat demands by workers at other struggling sites.It is still too early to say whether the Florange wrangling will hurt foreign investment in France, which Bank of France data show has grown modestly since the 2008/2009 global turndown to hit €30bn or 1.5% of output last year.Barely noticed last week, US online giant Amazon  said it was opening a new distribution centre in northern France that will create up to 2 500 jobs - four times the number at the Florange furnaces and a reminder that 80% of France's economy is now in the services sector.Vital to France's long-term prospects is whether Hollande obtains in coming weeks the overhaul of the country's unwieldy and expensive labour regulations which he has tasked employers and unions to achieve in negotiations by year-end.For that, France's trade unions must make unprecedented concessions to allow business more flexibility in hiring and firing. But the government handling of the Florange tussle has left many labour leaders feeling betrayed."Until the last minute, basically, we were made to believe that temporary nationalisation was essentially a given," Edouard Martin, head of the Florange chapter of France's large CFDT union, told RTL radio. "We did not understand this last-minute fix-up in which Jean-Marc Ayrault unveils an option never before discussed ... We get the feeling he was lying to us all along."A big test now will be whether unions have been riled so much that they stonewall in the labour reform talks. It could also make some more prone to protest if the government makes the extra public spending cuts that analysts say could be needed next year to ensure France hits its deficit-cutting target.For now, both sides hope the battle of Florange is over. ArcelorMittal has welcomed a deal that includes commitments on voluntary redundancies and re-deployment of furnace workers elsewhere in its French activities that go little beyond what it would likely have offered without government intervention.Hollande's office concedes he did not manage to get the furnaces re-opened as he promised during his election campaign,  but argue the deal to expand activity in the current poor economic climate is a victory of sorts.Whether the accord goes ahead in its entirety partly depends on variables outside the two parties' control, including €400m worth of European Commission funding.It may not be quite the end of the story.Referring to the nationalisation threat, one Hollande aide noted: "We are still keeping that revolver on the table."

S Korea, US to 'maximise' bid to stop North

South Korea and the United States will "maximise" diplomatic efforts to stop North Korea's planned rocket launch, Seoul's top nuclear envoy said on Tuesday as he left for talks in Washington. Lim Sung-Nam's US trip will be dominated by Pyongyang's announcement on Saturday that it intends to launch a long-range rocket between 10 and 22 December. The United States and its key Asian allies South Korea and Japan have condemned the move as a disguised ballistic missile test that violates UN resolutions triggered by Pyongyang's two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.Lim told Yonhap news agency that his talks with US officials would seek to "maximise diplomatic efforts and the co-ordination between South Korea and the US to block North Korea's launch". Lim met in Seoul on Monday with ambassadors from China, Russia and Japan other members of the six-party talks on North Korea to discuss a common response. Pyongyang insists the launch is a "peaceful" and purely scientific mission aimed at placing a satellite in orbit. A previous attempt in April failed when the carrier exploded shortly after take-off. During his three-day visit to Washington, Lim will hold talks with his US counterpart, Glyn Davies, and other senior officials. China, the North's closest ally, has expressed "concern" at the launch plan, with the foreign ministry urging "relevant parties to act in a way that is more conducive to the stability of the Korean peninsula". Russia on Monday added its "regret" at Pyongyang's announcement and noted that North Korea was obliged to abide by UN resolutions. Analysts say the international community is running out of options for pressuring the impoverished but nuclear-armed North, which is already under layers of sanctions. The six-party, aid-for-denuclearisation talks have been at a standstill since Pyongyang walked of the forum in April 2009. It staged its second nuclear test a month later.

China's Xi vows to rule by law

China's newly appointed leader Xi Jinping pledged on Tuesday to implement rule of law, in comments that appeared aimed at rising social discontent over government corruption and police brutality.In a speech at the Great Hall of the People that marked the 30th anniversary of China's 1982 constitution, Xi spoke of curbing the near-dictatorial powers of the ruling party.His comments appeared to be the strongest yet by a Chinese leader on the need for legal restraints on the party and come amid a series of graft scandals and reports of the unbridled wealth of China's top communist families."We must firmly establish throughout society the authority of the constitution and the law and allow the overwhelming masses to fully believe in the law," Xi said in comments carried by China Central Television. "To fully implement the constitution needs to be the sole task and the basic work in building a socialist nation ruled by law."Xi was last month named as the head of the ruling Communist Party and is slated to take over the state presidency from current President Hu Jintao in March as part of China's once-a-decade leadership transition.This year's transition was badly rocked by the case of disgraced politician Bo Xilai, whose wife was convicted in August of murdering a British businessman, in a scandal that has revealed rampant graft and lawlessness at the pinnacle of political power.Bo is awaiting trial for corruption and abuse of power after allegedly using police in Chongqing city where he ruled to remove political opponents and dissidents, practices that are routine in China.Since becoming party head, Xi has repeatedly pledged to fight graft and on Tuesday he further vowed to rein in China's top leaders. "We must establish mechanisms to restrain and supervise power, power must be made responsible, power must be supervised, violations of law must be investigated," he said."We must ensure that the power bestowed by the people is constantly used for the interest of the people.""No organisation or individual has the special rights to overstep the constitution and law, any violation of the constitution and the law must be investigated."China's current constitution has enshrined the basic freedoms of speech, press, religious belief and association, but such rights are routinely sanctioned and violated, rights groups say.Xi also appeared to address such alleged rights violations."To ensure the implementation of the constitution, is to ensure the realisation of the basic rights of the people," he said."By defending the dignity for the law, we are defending the will of the party and the people for dignity."

NEWS,03.07.2012

Sarkozy's home raided over link with L'Oreal hieress

 

Police raided the home and offices of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy today as part of a judicial inquiry into financial relations between his political camp and the richest woman in France, L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt.It was Sarkozy's first legal tangle since he was unseated in a May 6 election after five years in office, during which he enjoyed presidential immunity from legal pursuit. That cover expired in mid-June.Sarkozy's lawyer, Thierry Herzog, said the raids a day after his client had left for Canada on holiday would show nothing and that he had already supplied information to investigators that debunked suspicions of secret meetings with Bettencourt."These raids ... will as expected prove futile," Herzog said in a statement.The Bettencourt probe centres on financial relations between Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party and the billionaire heiress of the L'Oreal cosmetics empire. In one strand, investigators are trying to establish whether Sarkozy's 2007 election campaign in particular was funded illicitly.Herzog said magistrates looking into whether Sarkozy had received campaign funds from the now mentally fragile Bettencourt had been supplied with diary details of all Sarkozy appointments in 2007.Those details, he said, "prove that the purported 'secret meetings' with Madame Liliane Bettencourt were impossible".Sarkozy's predecessor, Jacques Chirac, who ruled France from 1995 to 2007, was handed a two-year suspended jail sentence in December after a court found him guilty of misusing public funds for political purposes when he was mayor of Paris.Francois Hollande, who unseated Sarkozy in May, has vowed to change the rules in France under his tenure so that the law no longer treats presidents differently from other civilians regarding matters that predate their time in office.The 57-year-old Sarkozy, who has adopted a low profile since his defeat, faces a number of legal tangles now that he is no longer head of state.Days after his constitutionally guaranteed immunity expired in mid-June, a lawyer announced a formal legal complaint in another affair with a political funding link in which he wants Sarkozy to answer questions.That complaint came from a lawyer acting for victims of a 2002 bombing in Karachi that investigators believe may be linked to a long-running corruption and illegal party-financing case.In the so-called "Karachi Affair", investigators are trying to unravel dealings by middlemen and possible kickbacks linked to France's sale of Agosta class submarines to Pakistan in the 1990s.That contract was negotiated and signed while Sarkozy was a minister and spokesman for a politician who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1995, Edouard Balladur.

 

Britain arms London with missiles in Olympic buildup

Britain will deploy missile defence systems in residential areas of London, including on the roof of a block of apartments, to defend against an aircraft attack on the Olympic Games, the government confirmed today.The plan has angered people leaving nearby who have launched legal action to block the move, which they say will endanger lives due to the possibility of accidents and the prospect that aircraft could be shot down over densely populated areas."This is the biggest sporting event in the world, and with that comes the huge responsibility to deliver it safely and securely," interior minister Theresa May said of the Olympic Games, which begin on July 27.The anti-aircraft missile systems - one large and mounted on a trailer, the other handheld - will be deployed at six locations around the Olympic Park in the east of the capital, including on top of two residential buildings and in parkland.The Stop the Olympic Missiles campaign says the plan will turn the games into a "festival of the global security industry", according to the group's website."The government is ignoring public opinion," said campaigner Chris Nineham."The vast majority of people in east London do not want these missiles. The government decision flies in the face of good sense and our campaign will go on," he told Reuters.Britain's defence ministry said it acknowledged that the defence system would have "implications" for those on the ground, but that missile deployment would be a "last resort option" to minimise casualties and damage from an aerial attack.

NEWS,30.06.2012

Germany agrees to concessions in eurozone pact

 

By the end of a vital two-day summit here, European diplomacy had played out like soccer, with Spain and Italy - the two nations headed to the Euro 2012 finals - emerging victorious and the Germans returning home in shock.After a marathon 14 hours of talks, the deal that came together saw Berlin offer surprise concessions that could aid both Madrid and Rome in their desperate struggle to stave off economic collapse, even as it hinted at new political dynamic in Europe.Amounting to a series of highly technical rule changes, the deal addressed the core of the questions facing Europe: Who will cover the tab for its 2 1/2-year-old debt crisis, and how?Troubled eurozone countries could now have more options for aid, including using a pool of European rescue funds to directly recapitalize ailing banks. That, in turn, could spare governments the humiliation of having to ask for aid themselves to channel to domestic banks, sidestepping the kind of intrusive financial inspections imposed on Greece, Ireland and Portugal.The change could ultimately halt a toxic cycle that, while holding countries accountable for their banks' errors, also saw the balance sheets of indebted nations sink deeper into the red as they took on ever more rescue cash to bail out their financial institutions.The new plan would kick in only once a regional supervisor is established to regulate banks in the 17-nation eurozone - itself a major step that could see regulators based at the European Central Bank override the authority of national governments, bolstering market confidence in the region's financial system. Leaders said they would agree on such a move by the end of the year.In addition, leaders agreed that countries could access bailout funds to buy up their government bonds on open markets - and thus bring down dangerously high borrowing costs - with fewer conditions attached.The compromise reached here Friday fueled new optimism about the region's ability to finally break the diplomatic impasses that have made its debt crisis as much political as economic."We have taken decisions that were unthinkable just some months ago," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.The breakthrough also signaled a reshaping of Europe's political landscape.German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the frugal East German physicist, had laid down the rules for coping with the crisis through her alliance with Nicolas Sarkozy when he was France's president. But with his successor, the intellectual socialist Francois Hollande, leaning more toward the Italian and Spanish leaders' vision of crisis management, a new three-against-one dynamic took hold here.Backed by the French, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, a conservative who is protective of Spanish pride, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, a sober and highly respected former EU official, resorted to brinksmanship. Both leaders vowed to block a $150 billion growth plan, seen as a centerpiece of the forum, if they did not win major concessions. Against their united front, Merkel blinked."The discussions were hard and tense," Monti said Friday. "But it was worth the effort.""This was not France and Germany arriving with a solution, like in the past," added Hollande. "It was France and Germany, along with others, reaching a solution. That's why it took so long and went so far."

 

Angela Merkel: Big Loser Of Eurozone Showdown

 

Angela Merkel was portrayed across Europe as the big loser of a euro zone showdown in Brussels after the German chancellor was forced to accept the crisis-fighting measures championed by countries struggling with their debts.Newspapers in Spain, Italy and France on Saturday toasted the triumph of their leaders - Mario Monti, Mariano Rajoy and Francois Hollande - in pushing Merkel into a U-turn that would long have been unthinkable.Even German newspapers said Merkel had been made to accept demands for the euro zone rescue fund to be able to inject aid directly into stricken banks from next year and intervene on bond markets to support troubled member states."There's no doubt about it - the chancellor was blindsided at the euro summit," wrote influential columnist Nikolaus Blome of Bild, a daily with 12 million readers.The summit ended on Friday with agreement on new steps to try to prevent a catastrophic breakup of the single currency.Popular at home for insisting on austerity measures and tough conditions for those indebted euro zone states getting help, Merkel was quick to put a positive spin on the summit, telling reporters: "We had an interest in finding solutions."There was no sign that the summit had damaged her reputation on Friday as both houses of parliament voted to back the euro zone's permanent bailout scheme. And Merkel does not face any particular political challenge at the moment.But the concessions of "Frau Nein" were far bigger than earlier compromises in the name of saving the euro."Merkel caves in - money for ailing banks," read the headline on Germany's left-leaning Sueddeutsche Zeitung.Bild wrote: "Italy and Spain got what they wanted: It'll be easier to borrow excessively again... It was the first time in more than two crisis years that euro states didn't follow Germany's orders."Footballing comparisons have been widespread after Italy knocked Germany out of the Euro 2012 tournament in a shock 2-1 victory on Thursday."This time it was worse, the defeat was about the euro," said respected Deutschlandfunk radio.'1-0 TO HOLLANDE'In France, left-leaning daily Liberation had a front page splash showing Hollande and Merkel dressed in their national football shirts with "1-0 to Hollande" over the top. It devoted its first four pages to his summit triumph.Liberation said it was the pressure from Hollande, Monti and Rajoy that made Merkel buckle and accept a growth plan and banking union mechanism. It applauded his negotiating prowess."The night the South made Merkel cave in," was the headline over a Liberation report on the Brussels summit.France's right-leaning daily Le Figaro called Spain and Italy the real winners. "Just like in football, it is thanks to Italy and Spain that the dynamics of the match have changed and that Angela Merkel has been forced back against the wall."Italy's leading daily, Corriere della Sera, captured the euphoric mood in Italy. A front-page cartoon "A super Mario in Brussels too" showed Monti in the triumphant clenched-fists pose of Italy striker Mario Balotelli after his second goal against Germany. The diminutive figures of an annoyed-looking Merkel and a meek-looking Hollande watch him."Italy is not just a great team, it's a great country and it may be good to remember it," the paper wrote, giving credit to Monti for making Italy a leading player in Europe again.Left-leaning daily La Repubblica noted that after four years during which Germany had "dictated both the music and the lyrics" at euro zone summits, three of the four main countries had refused to dance to Merkel's beat."Although the Chancellor retains her undisputed primacy at the heart of the Council, she was forced to listen to them."Spanish newspapers saw a victory too - particularly in the fact that inspectors from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank would not put Spain under the same scrutiny as countries bailed out earlier.But El Mundo noted that as Spain gets support for its troubled banks: "the Men in Black... will be atop the Pyrenees watching over everything we do."In bailed-out Portugal, Publico newspaper mocked Merkel's U-turn, saying: "Nein! Non! No! Yes!".In the northern European countries aligned with Germany in demanding tough measures for indebted countries getting help, Merkel was also identified as the loser with the softening of terms for the most indebted."The southern euro countries are taking the north hostage," wrote Dutch financial daily Het Financieele Dagblad.

NEWS, 09.06.2012.

Politics of populism

 

HOW many countries will Germany need to bail out before it has erased the guilt of the Holocaust? That is the provocative question posed by Thilo Sarrazin, a publicity-hungry maverick whose 2010 book attacking immigration shattered Germany's political consensus and sold more than 1 million copies. Recently he returned to the scene of the crime with a new book called Why Europe Doesn't Need the Euro. In a much-quoted passage, he says supporters of eurobonds are driven "by that very German reflex according to which atonement for the holocaust and the world wars will never be complete until we have delivered our entire public interest, and even our money, into European hands". This title has raced to the top of best-seller lists and sent jittery markets into panic. Sarrazin is a narcissist who is more interested in self-promotion than serious analysis. But his views on Europe as well as the political class' reaction to them tell us a lot about how the euro's political travails have come about, as well as how they are likely to unfold.An opinion poll last week provides just the latest proof that Sarrazin has his finger on the national pulse: over half of Germans think their country has suffered by joining the euro, while 79% reject eurobonds as a solution to the crisis. Sarrazin  a former regional politician and Bundesbank governor who was stripped of his official positions because of his views on immigration is not a man to do things by halves. His book breaks not one but two German taboos by linking Holocaust guilt with questions about the sustainability of the euro. (It is designed to be a refutation of Angela Merkel's argument that the breakup of the euro would lead to the breakup of the EU.)
But although  or rather because  Sarrazin is so good at mirroring public opinion, the German political establishment is falling over itself to bury his arguments: Peer Steinbrueck, the former finance minister (and possible candidate for chancellor), described it as "bullshit", while the current Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaueble, described it as "appalling nonsense".The antics of Thilo Sarrazin are a product of the constrained, elitist nature of German politics where after the experience of National Socialism many topics are declared outside the realm of political competition. As a result, all mainstream parties are in favour of Europe, the euro and the Atlantic alliance, and against war, inflation and nationalism. The result is a restricted political sphere where politicians have often been able to act against public opinion without fear of challenge including the decision to replace the über-popular Deutsch mark with the strikingly unpopular euro. But those who dare cross the threshold of political correctness as Sarrazin has repeatedly done tap into a vast reservoir of pent-up popular frustration. And because the establishment cartel turns them into outcasts rather than arguing with their views, this reservoir continues to grow.What is worrying is that Germany's leaders are now trying to treat foreign politicians who question German orthodoxy the same way they treat their own populists. When I was last in Berlin, I asked one of Merkel's aides what he thought her greatest achievements during the crisis were. He replied: "We could teach the neocons a thing or two about regime change." He may have been joking, but the brutal way that Merkel and Sarkozy used markets to topple Berlusconi and Papandreou has been replicated in the treatment of other leaders. First, Angela Merkel tried to dismiss Francois Hollande  not simply saying she disagreed with his views on the fiscal compact but refusing to meet him during the election campaign (the implication since the election is that it is all right to campaign in French, so long as you govern in German). And now they are trying to turn Alexis Tsirpas the firebrand leader of the Greek anti austerity Syriza party into a non person. A chorus of European politicians are trying to scare the living daylights out of the Greek people in the hope that the electorate will give a mandate to the mainstream New Democracy party, which had supported the bailout package. My hunch is that this approach is unlikely to deliver a mandate for New Democracy, and even if it succeeds, it could be undesirable. If European leaders want a sustainable deal that keeps Greece in the euro, they would do better to bind parties like Syriza into an agreement than to tie themselves to an ancien régime that has already lost much of its credibility.One of the ironies of the last few days is that Angela Merkel allegedly asked the Greek prime minister to call a referendum on whether Greece should stay in the euro. Back in December, Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy forced George Papandreou out of office for suggesting just such a referendum. At the time, I believed that allowing the political process to unfold might have given Papandreou a mandate for standing by his agreements with the EU.However, by suspending the political process and imposing a technocratic government, Merkozy did lasting damage to the legitimacy of formal politics in Greece and has created the conditions for populism to flourish.The situation in Greece shows how Europe's technocratic tendency is leading to a strong populist backlash. The traditional "Monnet method"” of European integration  named after the French founder of the EU who tried to turn political issues into bureaucratic ones  has dramatically narrowed the political space in member states without creating any widening of the space for politics at a European level. Telling a politician such as Francois Hollande who has received a mandate to renegotiate the fiscal compact or Alexis Tsirpas in Greece that "there is no alternative" sends a terrible message to European publics: they can change governments but not policies. The markets have a legitimate fear that unless leaders take the necessary steps toward integration, the EU will collapse. But this approach of imposing rules on the grounds that there is no alternative in fact risks creating a full-blown rebellion, making it harder for countries such as Greece to undertake reforms.So far, Germany's willingness to bankroll the European project has kept the show on the road. But the most worrying feature of the Sarrazin story is that it shows how even in Germany, the power of pro European elites is challenged. The rise from nowhere of the Pirate Party  a ragbag collection of internet activists with no political programme to speak of that is now polling in double digits in some regional elections shows how fluid German politics has become. It is unlikely that the anti-charismatic Sarrazin will end up becoming the German equivalent of Holland's Geert Wilders or Austria’s Joerg Haider. But the refusal of mainstream politicians to make the case for European integration or to engage in full-throated political competition with their opponents could pave the way for someone equally undesirable to claim that mantle. It would be a tragic paradox if the German establishment's guilt over past extremism hampers its ability to overcome the populists of the future.

NEWS,19.05.2012

Europe's economic woes dominate G8 gathering

 

US President Barack Obama will press European leaders to ease up on fiscal austerity and focus on economic growth at a summit that will discuss ways to stem turmoil in the euro zone and head off the risk of global contagion.At the wooded Camp David retreat in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains, Obama and leaders from other large economic powers will try to forge a common approach to tackling a crisis that threatens the future of Europe's 17-nation single currency.Though no major policy decisions are expected from the Group of Eight summit, leaders hope they can bridge enough of their differences to soothe rattled financial markets after worries about the risk of a Greek exit from the euro zone sent European stock prices to their lowest level since December."Hopefully we'll get some stuff done," Obama told Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti as he and other summit participants arrived for Friday evening dinner at a lodge at the secluded presidential retreat.Obama earlier in the day aligned himself with Monti and new French President Francois Hollande by urging a solution to the euro zone crisis that combines fiscal belt-tightening measures with a "strong growth agenda."On the other side of the debate is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has pushed fiscal austerity as a means of bringing down huge debt levels that are burdening European economies.Voters in euro zone countries have shown frustration with that approach, ejecting governments such as that of Nicolas Sarkozy, who was defeated by Hollande, a socialist, in the May 6 French presidential election.A draft of the summit communique shown to Reuters will stress an "imperative to create growth and jobs."Also on the summit agenda are concerns about oil and food prices as well as Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and North Korea.Speculation has grown that Obama will use an energy session at the G8 to seek support to tap emergency oil reserves before a European Union embargo of Iranian crude takes effect in July.But with oil prices already sliding, a move by Obama to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - alone or along with other countries - could expose him to criticism that the emergency supply should only be touched in a supply crisis.The Camp David summit kicked off four days of intensive diplomacy that will test leaders' ability to quell unease over the threat of another financial meltdown as well as plans to wind down the unpopular war in Afghanistan.After the Camp David talks wrap up late on Saturday afternoon, Obama will fly to his home town of Chicago where he will host a two-day NATO meeting at which the Afghanistan war will be the central topic.

 

EU, ECB working on Greece exit plans

 

The European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are working on an emergency scenario in case Greece has to leave the eurozone, EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said in an interview published on Friday. The comments would appear to be the first time that an EU official has confirmed the existence of contingencies being taken for a possible Greek exit from the currency bloc. Speculation has been rife about such plans, but their existence has not been confirmed. "A year-and- a-half ago there may have been the danger of a domino effect," he said in an interview with the Belgium's Dutch-language newspaper De Standaard. "But today there are, both within the European Central Bank and the European Commission, services that are working on emergency scenarios in case Greece doesn't make it."He added: "A Greek exit does not mean the end of the euro, as some claim."” The source close to De Gucht said the commissioner was explaining that EU institutions had not been sitting on their hands for the past two years, and that they were now better prepared than they had been. Concern has grown that Greece may decide to leave or be forced out of the 17-country currency bloc after a rise in popular opposition to an EU-International Monetary Fund programme of fiscal austerity and structural reforms undermined attempts to form a government after May 6 elections. Greeks are scheduled to go the polls again on June 17. A victory by the far-left, anti-bailout coalition SYRIZA - which some opinion polls suggest is likely - would increase the possibility of the country leaving the euro. However, one opinion poll on Thursday showed the pro-bailout New Democracy party in first place, several points ahead of the SYRIZA, which has pledged to tear up the bailout agreement. The prospect of SYRIZA winning the election has sent the euro and markets across the continent tumbling this week. Earlier this week, the country's president said Greeks had withdrawn up to €800m from banks as the political uncertainty deepened. In a further blow, the ECB said it had halted liquidity operations with some Greek banks because their capital was too depleted. De Gucht told De Standaard he thought Greece would stay inside the eurozone, but that the crucial question until the next election was what conditions the ECB would set for guaranteeing the liquidity of Greek banks. "The endgame has begun, and how it will finish I do not know," he said. "The question is, can everyone maintain their sangfroid over the coming weeks." Asked earlier this week about any contingency planning for a Greek exit, the spokesperson for the EC replied: "There are many, many questions arising and many questions open about Greece and most answers have to come from Greece and we have to respect the ongoing political process. "Clearly, the future of Greece is in the eurozone. We are working on that."

NEWS,11.05.2012.

Greek parties scramble to avert new election

 

The leaders of Greece's once-dominant political parties make their final effort today to form a coalition and avert a new election, which a poll showed would all but wipe them out and give victory to a radical leftist who rejects an EU bailout.The overwhelming majority of Greeks want to stay in the euro zone but voted last Sunday for parties that reject the severe terms of a bailout negotiated last year.European leaders say Greece will be ejected from the common currency if it turns its back on the package of tax hikes and wage cuts.Socialist PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos, whose party once towered over Greek politics but placed a distant third in the election, will be the last politician given a chance to form a Government.He was due to meet conservative rival Antonis Samaras, whose New Democracy party came first in the election, but who has already failed to form a coalition.If Venizelos fails as well, all parties will have one last chance to try before a new election must be held in the coming three to four weeks.PASOK and New Democracy jointly negotiated the 130 billion euro EU/IMF bailout in a reluctant coalition last year and now are the only parties in Parliament that support it.Enraged voters punished them by reducing their combined share of the vote from 77 % to 32 % at last Sunday's election, leaving them two seats short of forming a coalition Government.Samaras and Venizelos may be hoping Greeks, frightened by the prospect of hasty ejection from the euro, will return to the two traditional mainstream parties if the election is re-run next month.But a new poll showed the main beneficiary of a new vote would be the hardline Left Coalition SYRIZA, whose leader Alexis Tsipras rejects the bailout and has demanded it be torn up.The first opinion poll to be published since the election showed SYRIZA would win with 27.7% of the vote, almost 11 points up on their election result, consolidating votes that had been split among smaller anti-bailout groups.Under a rule designed to make it easier to form a Government, the party that places first gets 50 bonus seats in the 300 seat Parliament.Those seats went to New Democracy on Sunday. If SYRIZA were to win them in a new election, the marginalisation of the once-mighty parties would be complete and it would be impossible to form a Government supporting the bailout.Venizelos's hope of reaching a last-ditch deal have rested with the Democratic Left party, a small moderate splinter group.But its leader, Fotis Kouvelis, insisted on Friday he would not join a coalition with the pro-bailout parties unless anti-bailout parties were also included and the new government pulled out of the loan deal."Our proposal for an ecumenical government seeks to ensure the participation of all those forces that can serve two aims: the gradual disengagement from the loan agreement and staying in the euro zone", Kouvelis told Skai TV.One socialist party official said on Thursday there was a "very slim" chance for a coalition if Kouvelis agreed, "but his party is split right down the middle."The political deadlock has prompted warnings by European leaders that Greece could be thrown out of the euro if it does not stick to the spending cuts and economic reforms required by the bailout.German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Europe and the IMF were still determined to help Greece, but the country could not be helped if it did not help itself.The EU and IMF say they will not give Greece any more money under the bailout until it has a government in place that renews its commitment to the terms agreed last year. Greece could run out of money as soon as the end of June if the loans stop."We do not have an infinite amount of time. Time is flying because there are financing needs, but the first steps have to be taken now from the Greek side," European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny said in Vienna.A senior SYRIZA party official said European leaders were bluffing by threatening to eject Greece from the euro to force it to stick to the bailout terms."Not only can't Greece be kicked out of the euro, they will be begging us to take the money," because if Greece were kicked out the crisis would spread to other European countries and the euro would collapse, said Dimitris Stratoulis.The prospect that Greece might declare bankruptcy and be pushed out of the euro caused panic across the single currency zone last year. But since then, European banks have written off the value of most of their Greek debt, which makes them less susceptible to shock if Greece should default.

Hollande worth $1.9 million

 

Francois Hollande, the Socialist 'Mr Normal' who will be sworn in as French president next week, says he is worth almost $1.9 million, considerably less than his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy.Hollande, who campaigned on a promise to ditch the showbiz style that won Sarkozy the nickname of 'President Bling Bling', says in a declaration published on Friday that his principal asset is a house on France's southern Riviera coast.The declaration shows that Hollande, who rents his apartment in Paris but could now move into the presidential Elysee Palace, has declared assets of 1.17 million euros, primarily the house of 130 square metres in the chic Riviera village of Mougins.Other assets declared are bank accounts worth 8,200 euros, a life insurance contract worth 3,550 euros and 15,000 euros of furniture, said the declaration.The man who used to travel to work by scooter, and described himself as 'Mr Normal' during campaigning, does not own a car, the declaration says.Sarkozy, who hands the reins over to Hollande on May 15 and may go back to work as a lawyer, said in an official declaration in March he was worth about 2.7 million euros, up from 2.1 million when he took power in 2007.Most of that is in life insurance products but Sarkozy also declared a collection of autographs, watches and statuettes worth 100,000 euros, and a joint bank account of 57,000 euros he shares with his wife, the singer and former model Carla Bruni.Hollande's wealth falls just below the threshold that would make him liable to pay wealth tax in France.His French Riviera residence was bought in 1986 for just over half its current declared value and is the place where he spent summer breaks with former partner Segolene Royal, with whom he had four children in a quarter of a century together.He now lives with Valerie Trierweiler, a journalist who says she wants to remain working mother to pay the way for three sons she had before meeting Hollande.Hollande, whose doctor father Georges dabbled in property investment, said in his declaration he had part ownership of two apartments in Cannes that are worth 370,000 euros in all.Among the first measures he says he will implement after he takes over is a 30 percent cut in the presidential salary of more than 19,000 euros a month.

NEWS,09.05.2012.

Germans warn Greece: no cuts, no aid

Leading German politicians have warned Greece that the country would not receive a cent more aid unless it fulfills all the conditions of its international bailout.An election on Sunday in Greece failed to deliver a parliamentary majority for the two big pro-bailout parties, plunging the country into political limbo and increasing the risk that another vote may be required to resolve the impasse.On Tuesday, the leader of the Left Coalition party, which benefited from rising anger over austerity to take second place in Sunday's poll, declared Greece's policy pledges under its EU/IMF rescue null and void.As Europe's largest economy, Germany has contributed the biggest share of the financial guarantees under Greece's bailout, which is paid out in installments on the condition that Athens meets specific savings goals."The agreements must be respected. I don't think we can or should renegotiate," said Martin Schulz, a German politician and president of the European Parliament, on a visit to Berlin.Gerda Hasselfeldt, a senior member of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), echoed Schulz in warning Greece against any backsliding."Our position is unchanged. Aid can only flow if the conditions are met," Hasselfeldt told reporters.Greece must push a new round of spending cuts through parliament next month to qualify for an 11.5 billion euros aid installment that it needs to avoid bankruptcy. The post-election deadlock has raised questions about whether that timeline can be met.The vote in Greece and the victory of Socialist Francois Hollande in a French presidential election at the weekend underscored a growing backlash in Europe against austerity measures favoured by Berlin as the way out of the single currency bloc's debt crisis.France is struggling with weak economic growth, a gaping trade deficit, 10 percent unemployment and strained public finances that prompted ratings agency Standard & Poor's to cut its triple-A credit rating in January.Despite this backdrop, Hollande promised during his campaign to raise the minimum wage, hire tens of thousands of new teachers and dilute the increase in France's retirement age that outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy pushed through against strong opposition from unions and the French left.Hollande has promised to push back against German austerity policies, but many expect him to water down his plans after an audit of state finances that could be completed next month.Peter Altmaier, a leading conservative ally of Merkel, said on Tuesday that a new French government would have very little room to manoeuvre on fiscal policy."The French economy and the country's finances remain in a precarious position," Altmaier, parliamentary whip for Merkel's CDU, told reporters. "Any country that attempts through higher deficits ... to run a supply-driven policy will run foul of the markets very quickly and see its interest rates rise," he added. "There simply isn't any wiggle room."Altmaier said he was hopeful that, once French parliamentary elections are over in June, Berlin could reach a policy consensus with Paris that reaffirmed the path of budget consolidation in Europe "once and for all".Merkel, who publicly supported conservative incumbent Sarkozy in the French race, telephoned Hollande on Sunday after his victory and invited him to Berlin for talks.The two leaders are due to meet next week, after Hollande is sworn in as president, to try to iron out their differences.

Pressure builds on France's Hollande over EU debt plans

Pressure built on president-elect Francois Hollande to stand by France's austerity vows Tuesday, with Germany's Angela Merkel saying Europe was counting on them to resolve the bloc's debt crisis.Elected Sunday on a wave of anti-austerity feeling and pledges to put growth at the heart of European economic policy, Hollande attended his first official function Tuesday at a World War II commemoration ceremony.The Socialist joined his ousted right-wing rival Nicolas Sarkozy in laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier beneath the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, as France marked the anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe.Hollande said the ceremony was a sign of French unity after a fierce campaign that highlighted the country's deep left-right divide and saw him win with 51.6 percent of the vote."There are issues that unite us all, beyond the person of Nicolas Sarkozy or of me," said Hollande, who is due to formally take office on May 15.But outside France divisions came to the fore, as Merkel noted in a letter to Hollande that he was assuming power in the European Union's second-largest economy "at a time full of challenges"."It is up to us to take the necessary decisions for the European Union and the eurozone, to prepare our societies for the future and protect and advance prosperity in a sustainable way," Merkel wrote in the letter released by her office.Merkel said Monday that she would welcome Hollande with "open arms" when he makes his first foreign trip as president to Berlin next week.But she also made clear she had no plans to renegotiate the fiscal pact setting tough budgetary rules for EU states that she spearheaded, despite calls by Hollande to rework it to do more to foster growth.Japan joined those raising concerns about his plans Tuesday, with Finance Minister Jun Azumi warning Hollande to keep France's fiscal discipline in place."We want (France) to do what has been decided so far," Azumi told a regular news conference, according to Dow Jones Newswires."I don't know whether Mr Hollande will immediately act on what he has said in heated debates during the election campaign."But realistically, I think it is impossible (for European nations) to give up on fiscal-rebuilding efforts," he said.Hollande promised cheering supporters Sunday that he would reopen talks to ensure the EU fiscal pact focused on growth rather than simply imposing deficit-cutting austerity rules.EU president Herman Van Rompuy announced Tuesday that the bloc's leaders would meet on May 23 for an informal dinner ahead of an EU summit on June 28 and 29 that is expected to focus on growth.Hollande's transition chief Pierre Moscovici said Tuesday the Socialist would not give up on his plan for "a European project that is more favourable to growth" and that France's partners would budge."We will find a compromise. And I am convinced that things are starting well," Moscovici told RTL radio.The uncertainty generated by Hollande's election and the political turmoil in Greece, where election gains by hard-left and extreme-right parties stripped the ruling coalition of its majority, have riled the markets.

NEWS,07.05.2012.

Putin sworn in as Russia's president

 

Vladimir Putin appealed for unity in Russia after being sworn in as president today, pledging to strengthen democracy in his new six-year term.In a glittering ceremony, was inaugurated before nearly 2000 guests in the Kremlin's St Andrew Hall, before being blessed by the head of the Russian Orthodox Church."I will do all I can to justify the faith of millions of our citizens. I consider it to be the meaning of my whole life and my obligation to serve my fatherland and our people," Putin said in a brief speech."We will achieve our goals if we are a single, united people - if we hold our fatherland dear, strengthen Russian democracy, constitutional rights and freedoms."Putin, who was president of the former Soviet republic from 2000-2008 is returning to Russia's highest office after four years as prime minister, said he and the Russian people had already trodden a "difficult path" together."We believed in ourselves and in our powers, strengthened the country and restored the dignity of our great nation. The world has seen Russia reborn, and this is the result of the efforts of our people - shared, intensive work in which everyone has made a personal contribution."He praised Dmitry Medvedev, the ally he steered into the Kremlin when he faced a bar on a third straight term in 2008 and who is set to become prime minister in a job swap that has angered many Russians who are tired of the same leaders."Today we have everything we need to move forward and create a dynamic and developing state: A stable economic and social basis, an active and responsible civil society," Putin said. "I see in this a great service on the part of Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev.".A few kilometres across Moscow, several thousand people staged a rally supporting Putin, seen by his backers as the only leader capable of defending Russia's interests on the world stage and the guardian of the economy at home.While Putin's critics have tired of a political system that concentrates power in one man, many of his supporters welcome his domination of the country of more than 140 million."Democracy is the power of the majority. Russia is everything, the rest is nothing!" Alexander Dugin, a Kremlin-aligned nationalist, told the pro-Putin crowd.The rival rallies underlined the rifts opened by Putin's return to the Kremlin and protests that were sparked by allegations of electoral fraud but fuelled by many Russians' frustration that one man continues to dominate the country.Although the protests had lost momentum before Sunday's rally, they have given birth to a civil society, two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, that is gradually chipping away at Putin's authority.Putin, who will be 60 in October, grew up in Soviet days and worked as a spy in communist East Germany, is under pressure to show he can adapt to the new political landscape. Few think he has changed much - if at all.Putin has eased up on the choreographed macho antics that burnished his image at his peak in Russia, such as riding horseback barechested and shooting a tiger with a tranquiliser gun.Harder to shake off will be his habit of seeking total control and learning to cope with political opponents and a middle class demanding more political freedom.He has to quell rivalries between liberals and conservatives battling for positions in the new cabinet under Medvedev, who is swapping jobs with Putin. The outcome of the struggle could help determine how far reforms go to improve the investment climate.The $1.9 trillion economy is in better shape than in most European countries but is vulnerable to any change in the price of oil, Russia's main export commodity. The budget is under pressure from Putin's lavish election spending promises.Putin has said he wants to attract more foreign investment by improving the business climate, reduce corruption and red tape, and end Russia's heavy dependence on energy exports. He has not spelled out how he will do this.Putin is likely, as in the past, to use tough anti-Western rhetoric on foreign policy to drum up support if times get tough in Russia. But he has never yielded his strong influence over foreign policy as premier, so a major policy shift is unlikely.

Socialist Hollande ousts Sarkozy in French vote

 

 

Francois Hollande was elected France's first Socialist president in nearly two decades on Sunday, dealing a humiliating defeat to incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and shaking up European politics.The result will have major implications for Europe as it struggles to emerge from a financial crisis and for France, the eurozone's second-largest economy and a nuclear-armed permanent member of the UN Security Council.Hollande won the vote with about 52 percent, according to several estimates from polling firms based on ballot samples, becoming France's first Socialist president since Francois Mitterrand left office in 1995.Joyful crowds gathered in Hollande's adopted hometown of Tulle and in Paris to celebrate his victory."We are rid of a poison that was blighting our society. A normal president! It gives us a lot to dream about," said Didier Stephan, a 70-year-old artist who was among throngs of supporters at Paris's Place de la Bastille.Even before polls closed and broadcasters released estimates, supporters were chanting "President Hollande!" and "We Won!" at the iconic square.Sarkozy urged leaders of his right-wing UMP party to remain united after his defeat, but warned he would not lead it into June's parliamentary elections, according to political sources present at a meeting at his headquarters.Hollande led in opinion polls throughout the campaign and won the April 22 first round with 28.6 percent to Sarkozy's 27.2 percent -- making the right-winger the first-ever incumbent to lose in the first round.Grey skies and rain showers greeted voters across much of France, but turnout was high, hitting 71.96 percent at 5:00 pm (1500 GMT) according to interior ministry figures. More than 46 million people were eligible to vote.The election was marked by fears over European Union-imposed austerity and economic globalisation, and Hollande has said his first foreign meeting will be with German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- the key driver of EU budget policy.The 57-year-old Socialist has vowed to renegotiate the hard-fought fiscal austerity pact signed by EU leaders in March and to make it focus more on growth, but is facing resistance from Merkel.The French vote coincides with an election in Greece, where voters were also expected to punish the incumbent parties for landing the country in its bleak economic state.Anger over sputtering economies has brought down leaders from Ireland to Portugal since the debt crisis washed over the European continent.

NEWS,06.05.2012.

France holds breath ahead of tight vote

 

France held its breath on Saturday on the eve of a presidential election that Socialist Francois Hollande was predicted to win despite incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy closing the gap after wooing the far-right.Political speeches and new opinion polls have been banned since a particularly ferocious campaign ended on Friday night, but the last poll published ahead of the deadline forecast a 52-48 per cent win for Hollande.The Ifop-Fiducial poll said Sarkozy has clawed back six percentage points of voter intentions since the end of last week as he went all-out to enchant those who voted for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the first round.With the Socialist’s lead the narrowest since campaigning began, Sarkozy has vowed a surprise, while Hollande has stressed that nothing can be assumed about a first Socialist presidential victory in over a quarter century.“Everything is possible on Sunday,” admitted the left-leaning Liberation’s headline, while the pro-Sarkozy Le Figaro’s front page stressed that French citizens had a “historic choice”.“Electing a president is not a beauty contest,” warned a Le Figaro editorial, apparently targeting Hollande’s image as a soft and convivial consensus builder without ministerial experience.Liberation skewered Sarkozy for dragging his UMP party ever further to the right as he courted National Front voters, vowing to defend French values, limit immigration and strengthen France’s borders. “Whatever the outcome, the political landscape will remain profoundly, durably and dangerously transformed,” it said. French overseas territories were voting on Saturday, before the mass of some 46 million voters goes to the polls on Sunday.Hollande was spending Saturday with his partner Valerie Trierwiler in his political heartland Tulle in central France, while Sarkozy was with his wife, former supermodel Carla Bruni, and their baby daughter Giulia.Hollande won the April 22 first round with 28.63 per cent of the votes to Sarkozy’s 27.18 percent, and both candidates have been fighting for the votes of those whose candidates failed to make the run-off.Le Pen, who won almost 18 percent in the first round, has said she will cast a blank ballot, and observers expect many of her supporters to do the same.Ifop has forecast however that 55 per cent of her voters would back Sarkozy and 19 per cent Hollande.

 

Cameron hails London mayor win

British Prime Minister David Cameron on Saturday hailed fellow Conservative Boris Johnson's re-election as London mayor but it was the sole bright spot for his party as it took a mid-term beating.In local elections on Friday the opposition Labour party took control of 32 councils and won more than 800 seats at the expense of the Conservatives and their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats."I think it was a very strong campaign by Boris. It was based on his record, on the excellent things he has done out there and I am delighted to congratulate him," said Cameron, standing alongside Johnson at City Hall."It was a campaign the whole Conservative party got behind. I enjoyed campaigning for Boris but now what matters is working together for the good of London, as PM, as mayor, and that is exactly what we are going to do."Eccentric Johnson, famed for his dishevelled blond locks and gift for buffoonery, won 51.5 percent of the vote in a closer-than-expected run-off with rival and predecessor, Labour's Ken Livingstone."It was a very hard-fought long campaign," said Johnson, who will now lead London into the Olympic Games in July."I am grateful to the Conservative Party. They did turn out in large numbers to help me but I think we were able to reach people across the city with a message that resonated with them in tough times."British newspapers said Cameron now faces pressure from the right wing of the Conservative party to ditch policies including support for gay marriage, and bring in more radical tax and spending ideas."Now stand up for Tory values," said the right-leaning Daily Mail newspaper, while the left-leaning Guardian said the "drubbing" also boosted Johnson's own credentials for a possible Conservative leadership challenge.The Conservatives lost 12 councils and more than 400 seats in the local elections while the centrist Lib Dems, led by Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, lost one council and lost more than 300 seats.Capping a bad month for the government after Britain slid back into recession, Cameron's push to create the posts of elected mayors in England's biggest cities was widely rejected in referendums.

NEWS,04.05.2012.

US and China in talks as ties at great risk

 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (L) and China's Vice President Xi Jinping attend a dinner at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on May 3, 2012. Clinton on told China that it cannot deny the "aspirations" of its citizens as she opened talks in Beijing marred by a row over a Chinese dissident.The fourth round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue opened here today, with the two global players expected to boost their strategic mutual trust as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits.The current trust gap between Beijing and Washington stems from continual trade disputes, and more importantly, lack of concrete action on the US side to prove that its strategic shift to the Asia-Pacific region poses no threat to China. As a case in point, recent months have seen Washington moving to forge a closer military relationship with Manila through military assistance, warship sales and joint drills. The development comes at a time when the Philippines has been brazenly challenging China’s sovereignty over Huangyan Island, an integral part of China’s territory since ancient times. Despite US claims that it is not taking sides in the issue, its action speaks a louder truth: It is projecting visible influence, just as is desired by the Philippines. To preserve and promote the hard-earned China-US mutual trust, the United States needs to make more earnest efforts, instead of paying only lip service. In regard to trade disputes, many sober minds have pointed out that the punitive duties the United States has repeatedly slapped on Chinese goods are harmful not only to Chinese industries but to the recovering US economy. It is in the interests of both sides that US decision-makers sit down with their Chinese counterparts and negotiate a solution to their trade frictions, rather than simply resort to protectionist measures. In mid-April, China widened the trading band of its currency against the US dollar, a major step towards further increasing the flexibility of the yuan, which has been appreciating against the greenback since 2005. With China committed to reforming the yuan’s exchange rate regime, it is time that the United States discarded the ill-founded argument that its huge trade deficit with China is caused by the yuan’s “artificially low” exchange rate. In addition, the United States needs to play its due part in re-balancing bilateral trade by, among other things, removing the trade barriers against China. (Xinhua)

Polls show Sarkozy gaining on Hollande

Paris - Two polls released on Friday showed President Nicolas Sarkozy trimming Socialist Francois Hollande's lead for France's presidential runoff vote, the latest surveys to show the incumbent gaining ground after Wednesday's televised debate.A survey by pollster BVA showed Hollande taking 52.5% of the vote in Sunday's final round of the presidential election, down two points from late April, with Sarkozy taking 47.5%, a rise of two points.Separately, TNS-Sofres showed Hollande's score edging down 1.5 points to 53.5% from last week, with Sarkozy rising to 46.5% from 45% previously.A majority in the BVA survey still thought Hollande was most convincing in the televised debate, with 40% believing he gained the upper hand, against 31% who preferred the conservative Sarkozy.Four surveys conducted since the face-off have now shown Sarkozy gaining ground, following similar results from Harris Interactive and CSA on Thursday.A separate poll by OpinionWay carried out half before and half after the debate showed the Socialist frontrunner's lead narrowing to five points.Despite Sarkozy's gains, Hollande still retains a comfortable lead for Sunday's vote, with an average of recent opinion polls putting him six points ahead.The latest polls were also conducted before centrist Francois Bayrou's declaration on Thursday that he would not back Sarkozy in the second round, leaving his supporters to make up their own minds.Sarkozy's best hope of winning the vote hinge on his gaining support from at least 80% of far-rightist Marine Le Pen's voters, and around half of Bayrou's. Bayrou said on Thursday he objected to Sarkozy's recent lurch to the right, and that he himself would vote for Hollande.According to Friday's TNS-Sofres survey, 32% of those who voted Bayrou in the first round would vote for Sarkozy on Sunday while 37% would back Hollande. Meanwhile, 52% of Le Pen voters would choose Sarkozy in round two against 7% for Hollande, with a further 41% abstaining.