NEWS,29.07.2012

The Countries That Will Win the Most Olympic Medals

 

According to a newly released report, the United States is predicted to win the most medals at the London 2012 Olympics. For a country with less than 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. is expected to win 103 medals at the XXX Olympiad, 10% more than the runner up China. This may come as no surprise to some, considering that it has won the most medals in 14 of the 25 Summer Games that it has participated in,including the past five Games.However, based on a report, published by the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, the number of medals a country wins supports the probability that it will win medals in subsequent Olympics. The report’s model predicted the medal count in Beijing in 2008 with 95% accuracy and has been the most accurate predictor of medal distribution among countries since it was unveiled for the Sydney Games in 2000. Based on the report, 24/7 Wall St. identified the ten countries that will win the most Olympics Medals at the London Summer Games.The accuracy of the formula is impressive, given that it only considers four main factors. It includes two economic measures population and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita which it assigns equal weight. The other two factors that it considers are unique to the Olympics and include total medals won, which it accords the most weight, and whether a country is hosting the Olympics, which has been assigned a different weight with each game.According to Emily Williams, author of the report and PhD candidate at London Business School and a recent graduate of Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, when looking at the results “the lagged medal share has the biggest impact and the hosting effect is also pretty substantial.” The model takes into account the total number of medals won by each country in every Olympiad since 1960. China and the U.S. have dominated in recent years, which was factored into their 2012 estimate. Meanwhile, Russia, Australia, and Germany, fell below expectations last year, which has hurt their projections for this year as well.The host effect is considerable and should be a boon to the United Kingdom this summer. “The U.K. stands ready to greatly benefit in terms of its overall medal count and especially its coveted gold medal total,” Williams observes in the report. For the United Kingdom, the model predicts that this advantage will assure third place this summer with 25 golds, up from fourth place in 2008 when it was awarded only 19. It will also increase its total medals won from 47 in 2008 to 62 in 2012.In the 2004 study which the Williams’ report is based on, the authors suggest that the host effect could be the result of diminished costs for athletes from the host nation to participate, the benefit of participating in a home facility or the motivational force of competing before family, friends and fellow countrymen.A look at the countries with the most medals demonstrates the impact that a country’s population can have on the eventual medal count. According to the report, “The larger the population a country has, the more chance it will have an athlete with the extraordinary natural ability necessary to become an Olympic champion.” Of the top ten countries that are predicted to win the most medals this year, seven of the 10 are among the 10 most populous countries in the world. The exceptions are Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh.Neither the population size nor the GDP per capita can be considered in isolation of the other. The U.S. and Germany both do well because they have large populations and considerable wealth. But having an edge in one of these factors can help compensate for a weakness in the other. For instance, China, with its large population, wins more medals than many countries with a higher GDP per capita. Although Australia’s population size ranks just 51st in the world, its GDP per capita ranks seventh, and its standing in the medal count for 2012 is predicted to be seventh.Based on the report, “Jolly Good Show: Who Will Win the 2012 Olympic Games in London?,” by Emily Williams, which relies on the model developed by Dartmouth professors Andrew Bernard and Meghan Busse, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the countries that are likely to win the most medals at the 2012 London Games. To approximate the data which was used to calculate the projections, we considered 2011 GDP and population data from the World Bank for the 28 countries that the model predicts will win 6 or more gold medals. We obtained total Summer Olympics medal counts from the NBC website, also to approximate the data used for the formula. For countries that have not consistently had the same borders, including Germany and Russia, the medal counts for the entire area were included. For example, all medals won by the former USSR were included in Russia’s count.These are the ten countries that will win the most medals in the London Olympic Games.

Aurora Shooting: Mall's Troubled History Of Racism, Crime

Until last week, the Town Center at Aurora seemed like a typical mall.But the 37-year-old shopping center had problems even before July 20, when a gunman opened fire at a midnight screening of "The Dark Knight Rises" in the movie theater that sits adjacent to the mall in its parking lot.In recent years, shoppers have fled the aging mall for fancier centers like nearby Cherry Creek. Management, seeking to weed out what it perceived as undesirable customers, set a curfew for minors and enforced a dress code for shoppers. In 2004, a mall leasing agent was caught on audio tape explaining that the mall wanted to attract more whites and "reduce negative aspects" like "young, black customer(s)." "This is why we don't hang around aurora mall/Century 16," one resident tweeted hours after the shooting. "Aurora mall has always been ghetto, tho" said another.In some ways, Town Center's history follows the same rise and stumble as many American malls. When it opened in 1975, J.C. Penney and Sears fed the shopping appetite of new middle class fleeing Denver for cul-de-sacs and spotless mailboxes. In 1998, Simon Property Group, the largest mall owner in America with 221 U.S. properties and an annual revenue of $4.3 billion in 2011, acquired the mall. Simon rechristened the structure in 2005, calling it Town Center, an appropriate name in Aurora; the sprawling suburb of 325,000 had built its own municipal campus across the highway from the mall in 2003 -- an attempt to manufacture a downtown.When malls were first conceived, they were meant to be utopias. Early mall developer Victor Gruen called them "crystallization points for suburbia's community life." But these days, the rise of online shopping and a lingering economic crisis have sucked away malls' reverie. Many are abandoned, attracting crime and draining municipal budgets; others are losing shops. The average vacancy rate for regional malls is currently at 8.9 percent, according to Reis Inc., a real estate data and analysis firm. Once hovering around 5 or 6 percent in the mid 2000s, the rate nearly doubled over the course of the recession.While Town Center hasn't suffered from fleeing stores, it has coped with crime before. Gang activity surfaced at the mall in the early 2000s and was one factor that led Simon to announce it planned to spruce up the center with a $100 million renovation. In 2005, during the renovations, a woman was shot and killed outside the Champs store. The city of Aurora contributed $15 million in tax incentives to the renovations.At the time, the mall also faced accusations of racism. Before the shooting, a leasing agent was caught on audio tape by one of the mall's tenants saying the planned renovations were in part to attract more white people. After local television station 7NEWS aired the comments in August 2004, Simon suspended the agent, promising to hire more black staff and begin a parental patrol program that paid adults to supervise youth. Three months after the shooting in 2005, Simon also established a curfew for teens. The movie theater, where the shooting occurred Friday, was built in 1998 by Century Theaters now a part of Cinemark in the southeast parking lot of the oval-shaped mall complex. Though unattached, the Century 16 theater has always been considered part of the mall. The theater sits on land registered to Simon Debartolo Group, the former name of Simon Property Group, according to the Arapahoe County assessor database. The theater is owned by Century Theatres.Up until this week, the theater was also listed as a business on Simon's official website for the mall alongside the rest of the stores. But in the days following the shooting, Town Center removed Century 16 from its online directory. A cache of the old listing from July 7 is still available.In a written statement sent to The Huffington Post on Thursday, Simon said, "There is no connection between our operation of the mall and the terrible tragedy which occurred at the theater last Friday morning. Since 2004, we have invested nearly $60 million in Town Center at Aurora and have made it a great shopping venue for our tenants and customers." Les Morris, a spokesman for Simon, refused to answer questions or confirm facts about the mall. Since the shooting, store employees have been told by management not to talk to press, according to a cashier at the mall boutique Luxie.In a statement released on Friday, Cinemark said that it was "deeply saddened about this tragic incident."Locally, there is a history of complaints about racial profiling at the mall. In 1990, the NAACP spoke out about the mall's security guards, provoking then owner Corporate Property Investors to retrain staff and hire more minority guards.In wake of the scandal over the leasing agent's comments, residents hoped the mall's policies might change for good. Alvertis Simmons, 55, a community organizer in Aurora, flew to Simon's headquarters in Indianapolis that year to discuss how the mall could improve its relationship with minorities. He worked with the company to implement its parental patrol program.But Simon never followed through on its promise to hire more black staff, according to Simmons, even though it hired a few contractors during the renovations. "They could do better," he said this week. "Aurora mall would have never changed their culture had they not been taped."The leasing agent is no longer employed at Simon, the company said in its statement Thursday.In 2006, the local chapter of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) conducted a survey of 1,000 mall shoppers on discrimination and identified about 50 minority youth who said they were were profiled by mall security, mostly because of their clothing. "There was no clear demarcation [in the dress code] of what was gang attire and what was urban culture," said Ben Hanna, 31, who worked as head organizer for ACORN at the time. The Simon Property Group code of conduct posted on the websites and in the hallways of many of its malls does not mention "gang apparel" but requires shoppers to wear"appropriate" clothing. "Apparel that may provoke a disturbance or incite violence is prohibited," it states.Cinemark never adopted any of the mall's policies such as the dress code or parental patrol, according to Simmons. Still, the theater's clientele was affected as they also patronized the mall, he said. Freddie Hanns, 60, visits the mall almost every week and worked briefly as a contractor there during the renovations. Hanns, like Simmons, is black. "I think the mall has gotten better," he said. "It couldn't get any worse."But Aurora's racial tensions have mounted in the past decade as downtown Denver gentrifies and minorities move to the suburbs, according to Jeremy Nemeth, chair and professor of urban planning at the University of Colorado Denver. In 2000, Aurora was 13.4 percent black, 19.8 percent Hispanic and 68.9 percent white. In 2010, it was 15.7 percent black, 28.7 Hispanic and 61.1 percent white.Massacres like the one on July 20, however, are generally not caused by shifting demographics. Law enforcement officials call people like Aurora suspect James Holmes "active shooters," individuals who open fire in crowded areas and kill at random. Active shooter incidents are on the rise in shopping centers; besides the one in Aurora, there have been at least nine mall shooting sprees in the United States unrelated to gang or personal disputes since 2005."The mall is a victim of individuals who want to inflict as much carnage and get as much publicity as possible," said Malachy Cavanagh, a spokesman for the International Council of Shopping Centers. Like schools and churches, malls become targets because they draw large crowds and are publicly accessible, he said.In Aurora and many other suburbs, malls are also among the few public places teens can congregate. "Libraries close early. Recreation centers, they don't have them in the vicinity. And it's hot, hot, hot," said Simmons. "All they got is the mall."In the past decade, the Department of Homeland Security has partnered with the retail industry to develop training programs for dealing with active shooters, said Cavanagh.One way to deal with recurring crime like gang violence is to make malls more restrictive, as Town Center attempted to do. Unlike true public spaces, privately owned malls for the most part can expel anyone who looks suspicious; they aren't obliged to give patrons a right to free speech. There are a few exceptions: In five states, one of which is Colorado, courts have established rulings requiring mall owners to permit certain political activities like protesting and collecting ballot signatures."Malls are repressive spaces," said Michael Sorkin, an architect and critic who has written on malls and public space. "They have distorted the nature of the way in which one is able to participate in the life of a city as a citizen." This could make malls a target for violence on the part of those disenfranchised by consumer culture, Sorkin says.Yet few mall policies could have helped catch James Holmes. The 24-year-old graduate student at the University of Colorado grew up in a white, upper middle class family in San Diego as close as it gets to one of Town Center's target customers."It doesn't matter if you have 100 parent patrols at the mall or at the movies," said Simmons. "That guy was going to do what he did."

NEWS,17.07.2012

Olympic security group in tatters, admits CEO

 

The chief executive of G4S admitted that his management of the London Olympics staffing scandal had embarrassed the British government and left the world's biggest security group's reputation in tatters as he fought to save his job on Tuesday.G4S has been at the centre of a political firestorm that has wiped $US1.1 billion ($NZ1.37 billion) off its market value since it announced that it could not provide the promised 10,400 security guards only two weeks before the Games.Shares in the group closed down 5.7% after Chief Executive Nick Buckles appeared before a parliamentary committee, struggling to answer several questions and saying he wished he had never taken on the Olympics contract.At one point, when asked whether his staff would be able to speak fluent English, he responded that he did not know what fluent English was.After being assured that he was speaking English himself, Buckles went on to say that the group still expected to take its 57 million pound ($NZ111.7 million) management fee from the Games.G4S has said that it could lose up to 50 million pounds on the Olympics security contract, worth 284 million pounds.The embarrassing staffing admission has ignited a wider row over the British government's decision to outsource key work to the private sector and left ministers from the Prime Minister down trying to explain how the failure was allowed to develop."Many would take the view that the reputation of the company is in tatters," Buckles was told by one member of the Home Affairs Select Committee after being summoned at short notice to explain the debacle."I think, at the moment, I would have to agree with you," Buckles said, looking uncomfortable and sitting ramrod straight before lawmakers in the ornate wood-panelled room."We have had a fantastic track record of service delivery over many years in many countries, but clearly this is not a good position to be in," he added.The debacle has overshadowed the build-up to the Games only 10 days before the world's biggest sporting event begins, reviving memories of previous embarrassments for the company, such as a string of prisoner escapes and riots.Last year the group left inmates locked up for almost 24 hours at a British jail after losing the keys to cells. In another incident, guards tagged a man's false leg, allowing him to remove it and break a court-imposed curfew."Certainly my view, and the view of the board, is I'm the best person at the moment to take this through," Buckles insisted.To fill the gap left by G4S, the government has called up an additional 3500 soldiers, many of whom had just returned from lengthy deployments in Afghanistan.On Monday it emerged that, as well as extra troops, police officers were being deployed earlier than planned to cover for some G4S staff who had failed to show up for work.The row is a blow for Buckles, who worked his way up through G4S over 27 years with a no-nonsense management style.” Clearly we regret signing the contract, but now we have to get on and deliver it," he said after being asked to answer questions more directly.Only 11 days ago, the managing director of G4S Global Events, Ian Horseman Sewell, told Reuters that the company was so confident about the Olympics that it believed it could stage another similar-sized event at the same time if needed - a line that was repeated numerous times at the committee hearing.In a blow to the group's future earnings, Buckles indicated that the group would now not bid for work at either the soccer World Cup or the next Olympic Games, both to be held in Brazil, a key emerging market for G4S.Buckles said that the company would seek to compensate the police and consider a bonus for police and troops, prompting the chairman of the committee to ask if he was making up plans on the spot. A further 500 troops are on standby in case needed, Buckles said.Espirito Santo analyst David Brockton believes that G4S will come out relatively unscathed in the longer term, though Buckles could pay the price for the company's failures."If G4S can deliver the minimum 7000 (venue guards) that they expect to deliver, then today is the eye of the storm and the vitriol will subside over time and (we) will perhaps see the departure of Nick Buckles after the Olympics."The company's second largest shareholder Invesco, however, said that it thought the market had overreacted and told that Buckles should not be forced to stand down for failures made by local staff.

HSBC linked to Mexican drug trafficking

 

HSBC Holdings Plc told a US Senate panel today that it has dealt head-on with allegations of pervasive money-laundering through bank accounts, saying it has overhauled how it polices transactions, exited lucrative businesses and shaken up executive leadership.HSBC offered up the changes after the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a report accusing the British bank of a "pervasively polluted" culture, underscoring money-laundering problems have been flagged by regulators for nearly a decade.The report said the bank routinely acted as a financier to clients routing funds from the world's most dangerous corners, including Mexico, Iran and Syria.During a hearing on the Senate report, David Bagley, a top compliance executive at HSBC since 2002, said he would step down.The resignation was part of HSBC's effort to apologize and show that it has cleaned up its act, even as the bank faces fresh questions about whether it has really fixed major flaws in catching and stopping money laundering.A  investigation has found persistent lapses in the bank's anti-money laundering compliance since 2010.Senator Carl Levin, who chairs the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, kicked off the hearing by detailing how HSBC's lapses have systematically allowed suspicious actors to access the US banking system."Accountability for past conduct is essential. That's what's been missing here," Levin said, adding that the bank's charter could be at risk if it did not do better.The bank is still facing a Justice Department investigation could soon yield a fine that dwarfs the record $619 million that Dutch bank ING agreed in June to pay to settle similar accusations.Bagley told the hearing that while reforms had been made at HSBC, it was time for him to go."I recommended to the group that now is the appropriate time for me and for the bank, for someone new to serve as the head of group compliance," he said.Bagley also told the Senate panel that the bank would close thousands of Cayman Islands accounts as part of its renewed compliance efforts."That's good news," Levin said.The Senate report said HSBC had little oversight of client accounts housed in a shell operation in the Cayman Islands, well known for offering secret accounts and a limited tax regime. By 2008, the Cayman accounts held $2.1 billion.Bagley was on a panel with other high-level HSBC executives, but the harshest spotlight is expected later when Stuart Levey, who joined the bank in January as chief legal officer, is due to testify.He had been the Treasury Department's top official on terrorism finance from 2004 to 2011 - during which time he was involved in cracking down on HSBC for Iran-related transgressions.In prepared testimony released at the start of the hearing, Levey placed much of the blame on HSBC's rapid expansion, which left in place a decentralized management structure that did not implement consistent standards across the bank and viewed compliance only as an advisory job.Levey said the bank has reorganized its businesses to make the firm better connected to manage risk.The changes Bagley and Levey talked about are coming at a great cost to the bank, as spending on anti-money laundering systems and staff have increased substantially.HSBC Bank USA CEO Irene Dorner, in prepared remarks, said the bank now has 892 full-time anti-money laundering compliance professionals.HSBC shares closed 1.7% lower in London trade. Analysts warned that the bank faced huge financial penalties -- but perhaps worse, was now in the crosshairs of politicians."(The) most important consequence is that the bank is now under the microscope ... at a very bad time where banks are used as scapegoats by politicians globally," analysts at Italian bank Mediobanca said in a research note, adding that they expect HSBC to face a $1 billion fine as well.In a statement to British regulators today, the bank began its mea culpa."We will acknowledge that, in the past, we have sometimes failed to meet the standards that regulators and customers expect," it said.The Senate report detailed how between 2007 and 2008, HSBC's Mexican operations moved $7 billion into the bank's US operations.Both Mexican and US authorities warned HSBC that the amount of money could only have reached such a level if it was tied to illegal narcotics proceeds, the report said.It also examined banking HSBC did in Saudi Arabia with Al Rajhi Bank, which the report said has links to financing terrorism.HSBC will have company in the Senate's harsh spotlight - the report was also highly critical of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a major US bank regulator.In prepared testimony, the OCC acknowledged the need for changes in its oversight of anti-money laundering operations, as called for in the Senate report.The OCC will also testify on the extent of the failings it found in HSBC's money laundering controls, and the orders it issued to the bank to correct them.The exhibits for the hearing also provide new clues about how the Justice Department and regulators developed their probes of HSBC and Mexican drug trafficking.A July 2009 email from an OCC official to the bank relates a call received from the US Attorney's office in Brooklyn.The OCC official said that an assistant US attorney "said that his office is in the early stages of investigating possible money laundering through the repatriation of US currency through accounts at the banknotes division of HSBC-N.Y."The author of the email, Daniel Stipano, is an OCC lawyer scheduled to testify today.Later that day, Stipano told his peers at the OCC, "From what I can tell, this has the makings of potentially being a major criminal case- we need to be all over it."According to the Senate report, the OCC didn't take strong action against the bank until the fall of 2010, after the agency had learned of US law enforcement probes.

NEWS,03.07.2012

Sarkozy's home raided over link with L'Oreal hieress

 

Police raided the home and offices of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy today as part of a judicial inquiry into financial relations between his political camp and the richest woman in France, L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt.It was Sarkozy's first legal tangle since he was unseated in a May 6 election after five years in office, during which he enjoyed presidential immunity from legal pursuit. That cover expired in mid-June.Sarkozy's lawyer, Thierry Herzog, said the raids a day after his client had left for Canada on holiday would show nothing and that he had already supplied information to investigators that debunked suspicions of secret meetings with Bettencourt."These raids ... will as expected prove futile," Herzog said in a statement.The Bettencourt probe centres on financial relations between Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party and the billionaire heiress of the L'Oreal cosmetics empire. In one strand, investigators are trying to establish whether Sarkozy's 2007 election campaign in particular was funded illicitly.Herzog said magistrates looking into whether Sarkozy had received campaign funds from the now mentally fragile Bettencourt had been supplied with diary details of all Sarkozy appointments in 2007.Those details, he said, "prove that the purported 'secret meetings' with Madame Liliane Bettencourt were impossible".Sarkozy's predecessor, Jacques Chirac, who ruled France from 1995 to 2007, was handed a two-year suspended jail sentence in December after a court found him guilty of misusing public funds for political purposes when he was mayor of Paris.Francois Hollande, who unseated Sarkozy in May, has vowed to change the rules in France under his tenure so that the law no longer treats presidents differently from other civilians regarding matters that predate their time in office.The 57-year-old Sarkozy, who has adopted a low profile since his defeat, faces a number of legal tangles now that he is no longer head of state.Days after his constitutionally guaranteed immunity expired in mid-June, a lawyer announced a formal legal complaint in another affair with a political funding link in which he wants Sarkozy to answer questions.That complaint came from a lawyer acting for victims of a 2002 bombing in Karachi that investigators believe may be linked to a long-running corruption and illegal party-financing case.In the so-called "Karachi Affair", investigators are trying to unravel dealings by middlemen and possible kickbacks linked to France's sale of Agosta class submarines to Pakistan in the 1990s.That contract was negotiated and signed while Sarkozy was a minister and spokesman for a politician who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1995, Edouard Balladur.

 

Britain arms London with missiles in Olympic buildup

Britain will deploy missile defence systems in residential areas of London, including on the roof of a block of apartments, to defend against an aircraft attack on the Olympic Games, the government confirmed today.The plan has angered people leaving nearby who have launched legal action to block the move, which they say will endanger lives due to the possibility of accidents and the prospect that aircraft could be shot down over densely populated areas."This is the biggest sporting event in the world, and with that comes the huge responsibility to deliver it safely and securely," interior minister Theresa May said of the Olympic Games, which begin on July 27.The anti-aircraft missile systems - one large and mounted on a trailer, the other handheld - will be deployed at six locations around the Olympic Park in the east of the capital, including on top of two residential buildings and in parkland.The Stop the Olympic Missiles campaign says the plan will turn the games into a "festival of the global security industry", according to the group's website."The government is ignoring public opinion," said campaigner Chris Nineham."The vast majority of people in east London do not want these missiles. The government decision flies in the face of good sense and our campaign will go on," he told Reuters.Britain's defence ministry said it acknowledged that the defence system would have "implications" for those on the ground, but that missile deployment would be a "last resort option" to minimise casualties and damage from an aerial attack.