NEWS,07.08.2013

BoE looks forward to help UK recovery

The Bank of England overhauled its policy strategy on Wednesday, saying it planned to keep interest rates at a record low until unemployment falls to 7% or below, something unlikely for another three years.
Barely a month after Canadian Mark Carney took over as governor, the central bank said it would keep interest rates at 0.5 percent unless inflation threatened to get out of control or there was a danger to financial stability.
Carney said a recovery in Britain's fragile economy was underway and it appeared to be broadening but he warned that it had a long way to go before it was on solid ground.
"This remains the slowest recovery in output on record," he told his first news conference since taking over at the Bank. "We're not at escape velocity right now."
The pound rallied after an initial fall on the announcement and British government bond prices were lower as the BoE's commitment on interest rates fell short of some expectations of a more aggressive plan to revive growth.
"It looks like rates are not going to rise in the next three years, though they could, as Carney has stressed they are not pre-committed, so again this is a rather valueless bit of 'forward guidance' as is the case with the ECB," said Mark Ostwald at Monument Securities.
The Bank of England followed the US Federal Reserve's approach by setting an unemployment target rather than committing to keeping rates low for a set period of time but included get-out clauses.
BoE policymakers said they stood ready to buy more government bonds if additional stimulus was needed and would not reverse existing purchases while unemployment was too high.
The central bank said inflation was forecast to stay above its 2% target until the second half of 2015 based on market rate expectations.
"Attempting to return inflation to the target too quickly risks prolonging the period over which the nation's resources are underutilised," it said.
A growing number of major central banks are providing so-called forward guidance to help nurse their economies back to health after the damage of the financial crisis.
For the BoE, the challenge is to hold off a premature rise in British borrowing costs at a time when signs of economic recovery at home and the US Federal Reserve's decision to phase out stimulus are pushing up market interest rates.
Last month its Monetary Policy Committee took a step towards guidance by saying that a rise in British market rates was not justified by economic fundamentals, and it reiterated that point on Wednesday.
Markets already did not expect the BoE to start to raise interest rates until late 2015 at the earliest.
Three years' grace?
The BoE said Britain's economy had strengthened over the past three months. But output still remains more than 3 percent below its pre-crisis peak, a much weaker recovery than in the United States or Germany.
It now forecasts the economy will grow 0.6% during the current quarter  the same as between April and June, and that growth will reach an annual rate of 2.6% in two years' time, compared with 2.2% forecast three months ago, assuming interest rates stay on hold.
Unemployment is forecast to fall only slowly from its current level of 7.8% of the workforce, with the central bank expecting it to average 7.1% in the third quarter of 2016, the end of its forecast horizon.
This implies that the BoE expects to keep interest rates unchanged until at least that time, unless one of three conditions is breached before then.
The BoE will consider raising interest rates if their low level poses a threat to financial stability, if the public's medium-term inflation expectations rise dangerously high or if it forecasts that inflation in 18-24 months will be at 2.5% or higher.
It said that if those thresholds or the 7% unemployment rate are reached, the MPC would consider the case for interest rate rises on a month-by-month basis.
"There is therefore no presumption that breaching any of these knockouts would lead to an immediate increase in Bank Rate or sale of assets," it said.
Inflation is forecast to average 2.9% in the last three months of this year  close to its current level and a lower peak than previously thought  and then to fall roughly as predicted three months ago.
Finance minister George Osborne named Carney in November to succeed King, impressed by the Canadian's reputation for innovative thinking and applying forward guidance while he led Canada's central bank.
Osborne welcomed the plan and said it was consistent with the government's "absolute commitment" to Britain's 2% inflation target.
Carney has previously stressed the importance of reassuring ordinary people and businesses that their debt costs are not going to rise any time soon in order to give them more confidence about spending which would help the economy.
The new governor also signalled he was not concerned about signs of a fast recovery in the housing market in some parts of Britain, especially London.
"The housing market is starting to recover and actually the overall level of housing activity relative to GDP is a couple of percentage points lower than where it was prior to the crisis," Carney said at the news conference.

China fines baby formula makers $110m

China fined six companies including Mead Johnson Nutrition, Danone  and New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra a total of $110m following an investigation into price fixing and anti-competitive practices by foreign baby formula makers.

The other three penalised were Abbott Laboratories, Dutch dairy cooperative FrieslandCampina and Hong Kong-listed Biostime International Holdings, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Wednesday.

The fines, announced just over a month after the NDRC said it was conducting the antitrust review, coincide with separate pricing investigations into foreign and local pharmaceutical firms as well as companies involved in gold trading. Those probes have yet to conclude.

The official Xinhua news agency said the fines were a record for China, although it did not elaborate.

Foreign infant formula is coveted in China, where public trust was damaged by a 2008 scandal in which six infants died and thousands of others were sickened after drinking milk tainted with the toxic industrial compound melamine. 

Foreign brands account for about half of total sales and can sell for more than double the price of local formula. The infant milk market in the world's second biggest economy is set to grow to $25bn by 2017.

The NDRC said in a statement the fines were for restricting competition, setting curbs on minimum prices for distributors and for using a variety of methods to disrupt market order. 

Swiss giant Nestle, Japan's Meiji Holdings  and Zhejiang Beingmate Scientific Technology Industry and Trade Co were not punished because "they cooperated with the investigation, provided important evidence and carried out active self-rectification", Xinhua said, citing the NDRC.

The commission fined Mead Johnson 203.8m yuan ($33.29m); Danone 172m yuan; Biostime 162.9m yuan; Abbott 77m yuan; FrieslandCampina 48m yuan and Fonterra m yuan.

Mead Johnson, Biostime, Abbott and Fonterra said they would not contest the penalties. Officials at French food group Danone and FrieslandCampina were not immediately available to comment. 

After the NDRC probe was announced, a number of companies including Mead Johnson, Danone and Nestle cut prices on their baby formula in China by up to 20%.

Analysts said the probe was possibly part of a broader Chinese plan to boost consumption of local infant milk products.

But they said the fines were unlikely to damage the reputation of the affected companies. If anything, foreign infant formula makers might increase their market share because of the price cuts.

"It will have an impact on domestic brands over the long term as the prices of high-end premium brands come down. Customers will tend to buy the foreign brands as the price gap between domestic and foreign brands narrows," said Jacqueline Ko, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Research.

Fonterra, the world's biggest dairy exporter, said it would give additional training to sales staff and review its distributor contracts in the wake of its fine. 

"We believe the investigation leaves us with a much clearer understanding of expectations around implementing pricing policies," Kelvin Wickham, president of Fonterra Greater China and India, said in a statement.

Fonterra is embroiled in a separate milk powder contamination scare that has led to product recalls in China, Hong Kong and elsewhere in Asia. 

    

Powerful commission

A source with direct knowledge of the China investigation said the NDRC was concerned with manufacturers suggesting retail prices to distributors and then offering incentives if these were met, believing this was tantamount to dictating retail prices.

The agency also told the firms they had inhibited fair competition by setting up regional distributors and discouraging them from selling outside their territories, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak to the media.

The commission is one of China's most powerful government bodies, with a role in overseeing prices as well as broad economic policies.

The milk sector is still relatively young in China, with consumption of dairy products growing at an annual compound rate of 20%, a contrast to US and European markets where demand has been shrinking in the past decade.

Some analysts also said the pricing investigation could result in tougher rules governing imports.

Indeed, the China Food and Drug Administration is proposing tightening conditions for the granting of licences for milk powder production, including requiring producers to have their own controlled milk sources and research and development capabilities. 

In a statement late on Tuesday, the regulator said it was seeking public comment on the proposals, which also include requirements for license holders to strengthen hygiene practices and management standards.

Mead Johnson said its fine would reduce its full-year earnings by about 12 cents per share, but it reiterated its 2013 earnings forecast for profit, excluding one-time items, of $3.22 to $3.30 per share. 

Shares of Biostime, which has a market value of $3.3bn, were up 5.3% at midday, beating a 0.3% drop in the benchmark index. It shares resumed trading after being suspended the day before. 

Obama cancels Putin meeting over Snowden

US President Barack Obama is cancelling a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for next month in Moscow, the White House said on Wednesday.
The Obama administration has repeatedly expressed disappointment after Moscow granted temporary asylum to former US spy agency contractor Edward Snowden, rejecting US pleas to hand him over to face criminal charges including espionage.
The White House, in a statement, said it valued "achievements made" between Russia and the United States, but cited a "lack of progress" on a host of other issues "such as missile defence and arms control, trade and commercial relations, global security issues, and human rights and civil society."
"Russia's disappointing decision to grant Edward Snowden temporary asylum was also a factor that we considered in assessing the current state of our bilateral relationship," the statements said.
Obama plans to add a stop in Sweden as part of this travels to the G20 summit in early September, a White House official said.
On Tuesday, Obama confirmed that he would go to Russia this autumn for a G20 summit in St Petersburg, Russia, but said he was "disappointed" with Moscow's decision on Snowden.
Senator Charles Schumer praised Obama's decision to cancel the bilateral summit with Putin.
"The President clearly made the right decision. President Putin is acting like a school-yard bully and doesn't deserve the respect a bilateral summit would have accorded him," the New York Democrat said in a statement.

NKorea lifts ban on joint factory ops

North Korea said Wednesday it is lifting a ban on operations at a jointly run factory park shuttered since Pyongyang pulled out its 53,000 workers in April amid tensions with South Korea, and the rivals agreed to meet next week for talks meant to restart the complex.
The agreement revives hope for the resumption of production at the Kaesong complex, the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation from an earlier period of detente.
The industrial park combined South Korean initiative, capital and technology with cheap North Korean labour.
It was also a rare source of hard currency for North Korea, though the economically depressed country chafed at suggestions that it needed the money Kaesong generated.
North Korea said it will lift its ban on operations at the complex, including restrictions on the entry of South Korean managers.
But the two countries must reach a formal accord on their differences before production can resume, and six past meetings on the park's fate remained deadlocked.
The statement by the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, which is responsible for dealings with Seoul, appeared to accept a demand that South Korean negotiators had made in the deadlocked sessions: That North Korea won't unilaterally close the industrial complex, just north of the heavily armed border, should tensions between the rivals rise again.
The fate of Kaesong
Ahead of Wednesday's statement, which North Korea described as "bold and magnanimous", there was unease in Seoul about the fate of Kaesong. The statement came after 10 days of silence from Pyongyang on a South Korean demand for "final talks."
It also came about an hour after Seoul said it would begin insurance payments to 109 South Korean businesses shut out of Kaesong, which some saw as a step toward closing the park.
South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles relations with North Korea, accepted the North's proposal for talks on 14 August, a day before a holiday in both Koreas that celebrates independence from Japan's 1910-1945 colonial rule.
Seoul expressed hope the meeting would resolve differences on Kaesong.
South Korean businesses with operations at Kaesong welcomed the development. The park had survived previous periods of tension between the rivals, including attacks blamed on Pyongyang that killed 50 South Koreans in 2010, and the shutdown of other big cooperation projects.
North Korea banned South Korean managers from crossing the border to their jobs in Kaesong and then withdrew its workers from the park during a torrent of warlike threats it made in March and April, including vows of nuclear strikes on Washington and Seoul.
Military drills
Pyongyang said it was angry over annual US-South Korean military drills and UN sanctions over North Korea's February nuclear test - the country's third such test since 2006.
There have been recent attempts at tentative diplomacy by the Koreas, but tensions could rise again this month as South Korea and the United States are scheduled to begin a joint military exercise on 19 August.
Starting on Thursday, South Korean companies that had signed up for insurance were to receive payments to help cover investments in constructing production lines and buildings at Kaesong.
Both countries should ensure that operations at the complex continue normally regardless of external matters, the North's statement said.
North Korea also said it will guarantee the safety of the South Korean managers and property at Kaesong, and start sending North Korean workers to the park once South Korean businesses are ready to resume operations.
After breaking ground in 2003, earlier South Korean governments paved roads and erected buildings at Kaesong, which lies in a guarded, gated complex on the outskirts of North Korea's third-largest city.
By the end of 2012, South Korean companies had produced a total $2bn worth of goods during the previous eight years.
Pyongyang needs to reach out to Seoul and resume operations at Kaesong to resolve its huge economic problems, said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea studies professor at Korea University in Seoul.
North Korea is estimated to have received $80m in workers' salaries in 2012, an average of $127 a month per person, paid in US dollars, according to the Unification Ministry.
For South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, the complex was more than a business opportunity and a source of cheap labour it was a symbol representing the possibility of eventual unification.
Before April, the Kaesong industrial complex was the only place for South Korean entrepreneurs to collaborate with North Korean workers.

Talks will fail, say most Israeli Jews

Israel's Jewish population is overwhelmingly of the opinion that negotiations with the Palestinians will fail to achieve peace, according to a poll published on Wednesday.

About 80% of Israeli Jews said the chances of success of US-brokered talks, which resumed on 29 July after a three-year hiatus, were "low", against only 18% who said they were "high".

The survey, conducted by Tel Aviv University, interviewed 602 Israelis between 28 and 30 July and has an error margin of 4.5%.

Most of those interviewed  64%  believed Palestinian leaders were not genuine in wanting to resume talks, but 63% believed the Israeli government did want peace.

They were mostly unwilling, however, for the government to concede on issues deemed crucial to achieving an agreement.

Almost 63% opposed a return to the 1967 lines that existed before Israel occupied the West Bank - a key Palestinian demand  and 58% opposed the evacuation of Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territory, even if the largest settlements were allowed to remain.

Arab population more optimistic

The previous round of talks in September 2010 collapsed when Israeli refused to stop its settlement building.

About 77% on those interviewed also opposed the right of return for Palestinian refugees exiled after the Jewish state's creation in 1948 and the 1967 Six Day War.

And half the Jewish respondents opposed the partition of Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as capital of their future state.

Israel's Arab population were more optimistic about the chances of peace.

Around 47% of Israeli Arabs thought talks were likely to achieve a peace agreement, against 41% who said the chances were low.

A vast majority 85%  believed the Palestinians genuinely wanted talks to succeed.