06.01.2013

The Israeli Elections: The Left in Search of Identity

 

All the polls taken in Israel ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections indicate a static situation, so far as the division between right and left is concerned. The only significant changes are inside the two main blocks, that of the current coalition and that of the opposition. So far as the coalition is concerned, this blog already relayed the meteoric rise of Naftali Bnnett and his Jewish Home party at the expense of Likud. Altogether, the parties comprising the current Netanyahu coalition maintain their 65-68 seats, as opposed to the 52-55 seats held by the current opposition parties. A dramatic, and as yet unforeseen, change should take place for this electoral map to turn around, dethrone Netanyahu and bring in a new leader for Israel. Never say never, particularly in reference to Israeli politics, and to what happens in a country which prides itself with having never a dull moment, yet this is a dull campaign, henceforth the expectation for a last-minute upheaval may most likely remain an expectation, not a reality. Right and left in Israel are terms which do not correspond with the accepted European and to a large extent also American definitions of right and left, nor in regard to the class divisions, nor concerning attitudes towards socioeconomic issues. Every American reader equates support for Obamacare with the left, but in Israel, it was a Likud, a right-wing government, which instituted a state-run health insurance legislation. American readers also automatically put unions and their membership in the left-wing column, but in Israel it is different. One of the main power brokers of the Likud party, MK Haim Katz, is also the chairman of the union of the Israel Aircraft Industries, the largest public industrial employer in Israel; and this is just one, though prominent, example. Grover Norquist would be terrified to find out that in Likud, whose leader PM Netanyahu likes to compare himself to conservative Republicans, there are many who openly call for more taxation, particularly on the rich, as a way of paying for the welfare state that they want Israel to be.So, in order to have a better sense of the otherwise confusing world of Israeli politics, we can go by one definition of left versus right, and this is the attitude towards the conflict with the Palestinians, the notion of a two-state solution and the attitude towards settlements. Here, too, the picture is somewhat murky and unclear. There are five parties competing for about 40 seats, as about 10-12 go to the three Arab parties. The fact that the Arab-Israeli vote goes mainly to Arab parties, and less and less to center and center-left Jewish parties, is one of the ringing failures of parties in Israel which claim to present an inclusive political platform, one that could provide a political home for many Israeli Arabs. Those who want to combine support for Palestinian national aspirations with a drive to better their lot in the State of Israel, with its built-in Jewish majority and character. There are Arab candidates in the parties of the center and left, but these people seem to have no troops behind them. This is just one of the failures of the center and left, in terms of broadening their electoral base. Three other big blocks of voters continue to be firmly in the right-wing column, and out of reach for the center and left; Sepharadic voters, Jews from the former Soviet Union, and religious voters. These three blocks constitute the backbone of the right-wing coalition, and they continue to be impregnable to the Israeli left. This is not good news to the five parties of the center and left, better news to Netanyahu, but still potentially troubling for him, because the current polls show him losing ground to the right-wing religious parties, something which will greatly curtail his freedom of action after the elections. Here there is a potential opportunity for the center left, but one which is being sadly wasted. The Labor leader, Shelly Yechimovitz, who competes with Bennett for the no. two slot after Likud is committed not to join a coalition led by Netanyahu, and so is the marginal Meretz party. The movement of former FM Livni, Yesh Atid we have a future of Yair Lapid and what is left of the Kadima party under Shaul Mofaz are ready to join Netanyahu, but without the religious right wing. Confused? You ought to be, and so are many Israeli voters who otherwise would have liked to vote against Netanyahu, but feel that under current circumstances their vote will be to no avail. One of them is Yuval Diskin, a former head of the General Security Service and a fierce critic of Netanyahu from the left, who called for likeminded people to abstain from voting altogether. Clearly, sweet music to the ears of Netanyahu and Lieberman. With the center and left so fragmented over their priorities, unable to find the minimal workable common denominator, Netanyahu cruises ever more easily towards another term. So, on January 23rd the all too familiar ritual of soul-searching and self-blame, so familiar to the Israeli center and left, is expected to commence in full force.

Israel's Election (and Settlements) Are Killing the Two-State Solution

 

Israel's upcoming Jan. 22 parliamentary election had been expected to be a status quo affair leading to an easy victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead, it's turned into a race to the extreme right that is threatening to kill the two-state solution. And Washington seems oblivious. The latest polls still show Netanyahu emerging as the next prime minister, but in a weakened position atop a coalition filled with politicians adamantly opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state. This new configuration will narrow Netanyahu's freedom of action and ability to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians. On the Palestinian side, moderates President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad have both lost popular support to Hamas, which rejects Israel's existence. How much longer can the moderates hang on, absent some progress toward a Palestinian state, before the Islamic winds blowing through the Arab world sweep them away?It's a major headache for President Obama, who no longer has the luxury of non-engagement in the Middle East. Without swift, firm and decisive action to reignite a meaningful peace process and to push for a swift deal, the two-state option may disappear forever, leaving Israelis and Palestinians alike facing a future of endless conflict in a region already racked with instability. Obama has been hanging back during the Israeli election campaign and until he can put together his national security team for his second term. But the need is now urgent. He needs to rally his Quartet partners -- the EU, the UN and Russia -- and put together a concrete plan and timetable for a solution. Obama should consider an early trip to the Middle East to get things back on track. Whatever tactics he adopts, the president urgently needs to use political capital and diplomatic muscle to get the parties back to the table and then make the no doubt difficult concessions necessary for a deal because the alternatives are truly frightening.The parameters of such a plan remain clear: an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 lines with some small land swaps; secure borders for Israel; an equitable deal on Jerusalem and, of course, statehood for the Palestinians.We're now past the point of apportioning blame for a diplomatic deadlock that is almost two-and-a-half years long. Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but the overriding fact is that Israeli settlements are fast eating away at possibility of ever establishing a Palestinian state and Israel's lurch to the political right is accelerating that process. New Israeli plans to build in the East Jerusalem settlement of Givat Hamatos would cut Bethlehem off from Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, while proposed new settlements in an area known as EI east of Jerusalem would drive a massive wedge between the north and south of the West Bank.Israeli politicians have been indulging in what can only be described as a settlement frenzy. As Netanyahu's Likud-Beitenu block has slipped back in the polls, the story of the election has been the meteoric rise of the extreme right-wing HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) Party whose leader, Naftali Bennett, advocates the immediate annexation of 60 percent of the West Bank. Bennett looks like he is emerging as the leader of the third and possibly even the second largest party in the new Knesset with up to 18 seats, the same as is projected for the opposition Labor Party which once dominated Israeli politics. Netanyahu's own ranks now include figures like Moshe Feiglin, a firebrand who wants to rebuild a Jewish Temple on the Temple Mount where the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosques now stand the third holiest site in Islam. He was arrested there this week trying to pray, a deliberately inflammatory act. Past attempts to encroach on what Muslims call the "Noble Sanctuary" have been met by outrage and violent resistance. In September 2000, a visit to the site by then Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon surrounded by hundreds of riot police was the spark that ignited what became known as the Second Intifada which, in the next five years, took the lives of an estimated 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis. Feiglin also found time to address a "one-state solution" conference in Jerusalem where he outlined a plan to pay Palestinian families $500,000 each to emigrate. Because of the low birth rates in Western nations, they will welcome immigrants who "know how to build," he said. This is the same man who told The Atlantic Monthly's Jeffrey Goldberg nine years ago: "You can't teach a monkey to speak and you can't teach an Arab to be democratic. You're dealing with a culture of thieves and robbers. Muhammad, their prophet, was a robber and a killer and a liar. The Arab destroys everything he touches. "Several other Likud parliamentarians attending the conference, including Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Minister Yuli Edelstein, who said Israel should move toward the gradual or total annexation of the West Bank while scrapping the Oslo Peace Accords of 1993, which still provide the framework for an eventual peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.Last week, Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who is No. 3 on Netanyahu's election slate, said "two states for two peoples was never part of Likud's election platform." Knesset Member Tzipi Hotovely, No. 15 on the list, said Netanyahu had only adopted the policy to "placate the world." Without vigorous U.S. leadership at the highest level, we may soon be looking at a Middle East in which both sides are governed by extremists who reject the other's right to exist on the land. That's not a future anyone should want to see.

Ten New Year's Resolutions for U.S. Policy Towards Latin America

 

U.S. policy towards our Latin American neighbors is, as usual, in need of a few New Year's resolutions. Here goes:Ban assault weapons. Three months before the murders of 20 children and six adults in Newtown, Connecticut, 110 victims of violence and advocates from Mexico traveled across the United States calling on us to take action to stop the violence that has claimed over 100,000 lives in Mexico during the last six years. They asked us to ban the assault weapons that arm Mexico's brutal cartels. Some 70 percent of assault weapons and other firearms used by criminal gangs in Mexico come from the United States. The United States should reinstate and tighten the assault weapon ban and enforce the ban on the import of assault weapons into our country, which are then smuggled into Mexico. Do it for Newtown. Do it for Aurora. Do it for Mexico's mothers and fathers who have lost their children to senseless violence. Deliver comprehensive immigration reform. Democrats and Republicans alike should heed the message delivered by the Latino vote in 2012 and provide a path to citizenship for the eleven million people living in the shadows in the United States and build a flexible, sensible legal immigration system for the future. This historic step would help families and the economy in the United States and Latin America, and would do more to improve U.S.-Latin American relations than any other single action. And right now, the Obama administration should protect the rights of migrants and border communities by stopping deportation practices that send migrants back to dangerous areas to be preyed upon by cartels, and by ensuring U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents are held accountable for abuses. Support peace in Colombia, with justice. In 2013, there's a real chance to end the longest-running conflict in the Americas. The Obama administration sensibly backs Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos' negotiations with the FARC guerrillas. But we should also be listening to the voices of families of the disappeared and kidnapped, and the mothers of children murdered by Colombia's army, who are calling for justice along with peace. There must be accountability and truth for the murder, torture, forced displacement and rape perpetrated by all actors: the paramilitaries, the guerrillas and the country's own armed forces. The sad truth is that the Santos administration is moving backwards in accountability for army abuses. Without full truth and a strong measure of justice, there cannot be a lasting peace.Try this on for size: a rational policy towards Cuba. The United States should launch a serious dialogue that aims at lifting the failed, 50-year embargo. We know this won't happen overnight. For starters, we should end the travel ban that divides us from our neighbors just off the Florida coast. The Obama administration should also take Cuba off the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism; there is no earthly reason it belongs there in 2013. The accusation of giving shelter to Colombia's guerrillas was one of the few rationales for Cuba's inclusion; now Cuba is lauded by Colombia's government for hosting peace negotiations. If we support peace in Colombia, how can we not recognize Cuba's contribution?End the militarized approach to drugs. Latin American presidents of all political persuasions are telling us: we must rethink the "War on Drugs," which has brought suffering without results. For starters, we should stop the tactics that cause the most harm while doing the least good: counternarcotics campaigns that bring Latin American armies into the streets; aerial spraying, which destroys food as well as drug crops. And we should focus on the public health approaches here and abroad that do the most good and the least harm: providing treatment when and where addicts need it; evidence-based prevention campaigns; youth employment and building resilient communities.Focus on aid that helps people, not guns and military aid. As we face another battle on budget cuts, why not put military aid to Latin America on the chopping block. There's no war anywhere in the region, if Colombia's peace talks succeed. Focus on aid that actually helps people: disaster assistance, including reconstruction aid for Haiti; aid for health care, education, micro-loans, improving justice systems, and community development. Ensure that aid programs are consulted with the people they intend to benefit.Speak up for human rights. While the United States isn't perfect, as our Latin American friends readily tell us, our government should speak up for human rights in this hemisphere. But do it fairly. When a left-wing government restricts freedom of the press, the United States should speak against this. When governments the U.S. favors  like Colombia and Mexico fail to prosecute human rights abuses committed by their militaries, the United States should press for justice, including by suspending military aid when needed. Decisively support human rights in Honduras. Honduras is in crisis. Since the June 2009 coup in Honduras, human rights protections, never strong, have been severely weakened. Human rights defenders, LGBT community members, leaders in poor farming communities, and opposition activists have been threatened and killed, in crimes for which there is no justice. Military, police and private security guards are unaccountable. The United States should suspend military and police aid to Honduras while using aid and tough diplomacy to help Honduras strengthen the failing justice system. Support the Inter-American human rights system. To its credit, the Obama administration has actively supported the Inter-American human rights system, including the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, which many Latin American governments of left, right and center have recently sought to weaken. 2013 will be an important year to join with civil society groups across the Americas to ensure reforms strengthen, not weaken, this system's role as the last recourse for victims who fail to attain justice in their countries. Finally, clean up our own act. The United States' voice on human rights will be stronger, of course, if our government sticks to human rights principles in its own actions. Drone strikes that kill civilians, rendition, indefinite detention and complete lack of due process for terror suspects weaken U.S. credibility in Latin America as well as in other regions of the world. Now, if we could keep these resolutions, 2013 would be a banner year for U.S.-Latin American relations.

NEWS,27.10.2012

Economic report not all bad for Obama

Republican challenger Mitt Romney used a government report showing tepid economic growth to hammer President Barack Obama less than two weeks before Election Day, but the report also had some good news for the president.With the Commerce Department reporting a modest 2% growth rate unlikely to make a big dent in unemployment, Romney said Obama inherited a bad situation when he took office and "made the problem worse." He criticised Obama for failing to reduce borrowing and spending, protect entitlement programs or reach deals with Republicans.The report also provided ammunition for Obama: It showed the economy grew for the 13th straight quarter at a rate that - though modest - beat expectations. Obama claims progress during his term on fixing the economy, though conceding it hasn't been fast enough, and says Romney's policies would only make matters worse.The economy remains the race's dominant issue. But voters who are still undecided aren't likely to be swayed by Friday's mixed report from the Commerce Department, experts said.Growth in the July-September quarter climbed slightly but was still too weak to stir significantly more hiring. The pace of expansion increased to a 2% annual rate from 1.3% in the April-June quarter, led by more consumer and government spending. This year's third-quarter growth is slightly below the 2.2% average pace since the recession ended in June 2009."For the average American, I don't think changes in quarterly GDP" make a big difference in their perception of the economy, said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Centre. "It's certainly good for the president that the number is not bad because that would resonate."With 11 days until the election, the economy is being kept afloat by revitalised consumer spending and the early stages of a housing recovery. But more than three years after the Great Recession ended, the US continues to struggle because businesses are reluctant to invest, and slower global growth has cut demand for American exports. The recovery is still the slowest since World War II.The latest report did exceed expectations in GDP growth and showed some progress in consumer spending, which drives 70% of economic activity.Obama took office during the worst downturn since the Great Depression and says his policies stabilised the economy later that year. He argues that his massive stimulus package and auto bailout helped it grow in 2010.

 

US economic growth accelerating

US economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as a last minute spurt in consumer spending and a surprise turnaround in government outlays offset the first cutback in business investment in more than a year.Even so, the stronger pace of expansion fell short of what is needed to make much of a dent in unemployment, and it offered little cheer for the White House ahead of the closely contested Nov. 6 presidential election.Gross domestic product grew at a 2% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its first estimate of the third quarter, a pick-up from the second quarter's 1.3% pace. But to make substantial headway cutting the jobless rate, the economy needs to grow by more than a 2.5% pace over several quarters.The growth was a bit better than economists had expected, in part because of a surge in government defence spending, which was not expected to last. defence spending rose at its fastest pace in three years, and combined with the rise in household consumption and a jump in home building to strengthen domestic demand."The economy still has only weak forward momentum," said Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington Massachusetts. "Some underlying fundamentals are improving, but uncertainty at home and abroad is holding back the business sector."US stocks ended the day little changed, with corporate earnings holding greater sway over market sentiment, while Treasury debt prices rose. The dollar was flat against a basket of currencies.Since climbing out of recession, the US economy has faced a series of headwinds ranging from high gasoline prices to the debt turmoil in Europe and, lately, fears of US government austerity. The economy has struggled to exceed a 2% growth pace and remains about 4.5 million jobs short of where it stood when the downturn started.White House adviser Alan Krueger said the GDP report underscored the need to extend tax cuts for the middle class and small businesses, as President Barack Obama has proposed. Obama's Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, described it as evidence of the president's failed policies.In the third quarter, consumers shrugged off the impending sharp cuts in government spending and higher taxes that are due early next year and went on a bit of a shopping spree, buying automobiles and snapping up Apple Inc's iPhone 5.Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, grew at a 2% rate after increasing 1.5% in the second quarter.A separate private-sector report showed consumer sentiment rose this month to its highest point in five years, another sign households are little worried by the looming fiscal cliff at year end that will raise income taxes and is estimated to drain about $US600 billion from the economy next year unless Congress acts.High stock prices and firming home values have made households a bit more willing to take on new debt, supporting consumer spending even in the face of higher gasoline prices.An inflation gauge in the government's GDP report rose at a 1.8% rate, up from the second quarter's 0.7% pace. But a core measure that strips out food and energy costs slowed to a 1.3% rate, suggesting the rise in overall inflation will be temporary.Even so, with about 23 million Americans either out of work or underemployed, consumers might have to cut back, especially if they get slapped with a higher tax bill in 2013.Incomes were squeezed in the third quarter rising just 0.8% after accounting for inflation and taxes and households slowed their saving to ramp up their spending.Government spending, which snapped eight straight quarters of declines, accounted for 0.7%age point of GDP growth. defence outlays jumped at a 13% annual rate, the most since the second quarter of 2009, after dropping for three consecutive quarters. The surge was mainly in defence services installation, and support for both weapons and personnel.Fears of the fiscal cliff hammered business spending, which dropped at a 1.3% pace, the first decrease since the first quarter of 2011."We are being really cautious about (the) kinds of investments we make and the kinds of risks we are taking in this environment," the chief executive of consumer products maker Newell Rubbermaid Inc, Mike Polk, told on Friday.Worries over slower global growth have weighed on the corporate sector, which has issued a series of disappointing third-quarter earnings reports. According to Thomson Reuters data, 63% of companies have posted revenues below analysts' expectations; several have also announced job cuts.Slowing global demand, particularly weakness in Europe and China, caused US exports to contract for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. Exports declined by 1.6%, outstripping a 0.2% decline in imports, marking the first drop in imports for three years.Another spot of weakness in the GDP report were inventories, which were squeezed by a drought in the US Midwest. Farm inventories cut 0.42%age point from GDP growth and could remain a drag in the fourth quarter.Home building, which has been a weak spot in the economic recovery, surged at a 14.4% rate, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve's ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance, which has driven mortgage rates to record lows.Economists say housing  the epicentre of the last recession  will contribute to growth this year for the first time since 2005.

Rightwing 'Big Bang' hits Israeli politics

The rightwing alliance between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his foreign minister has polarised political forces in Israel ahead of next January's parliamentary election.Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman's surprise announcement late on Thursday that their respective Likud and Yisrael Beitenu parties would run on a joint ticket was dubbed "the rightwing Big Bang" by the Israeli press.Alongside the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu, the premier's right-wing Likud - already predicted to win the vote would be able to form a broad nationalist bloc leaning strongly to the right.Such a move would also allow Netanyahu to overcome, to some degree, the chronic instability of past coalition governments in the country."Israel needs a strong coalition government based on a political list based on genuine cooperation," Netanyahu said on Thursday evening."We ask the people to support strengthening the state, and I want a clear mandate so I can take care of the basic" issues.Israeli media quoted a survey by an adviser to Lieberman, according to which the joint list would receive 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, or parliament, when the votes are cast on January 22.Other polls, however, predict an outcome of less than 42 seats, the current combined number of Likud (27) and Yisrael Beitenu (15), the third largest political force in the Knesset."We are not worried about the polls, what interests us is the construction of a broad nationalist camp," Lieberman said at a news conference on Friday."Israel must move away from a reality of many parties to a system of larger parties. We will probably never reach two, like in the United States, but must achieve a system of four or five parties to ensure governmental stability," he added.Assuming his expected victory takes place, Netanyahu is certain to remain premier.But the Likud has vehemently denied a report of a premiership rotation deal with Lieberman, a populist authoritarian certain to receive a key position in the future cabinet.The leaders of the political centre and left denounced the "nationalist" and even "racist" Likud.Lieberman, a settler who was chief of Netanyahu's staff during his first term as prime minister in the late 1990s, is famous for his anti-Arab and nationalistic statements."The demon is out of its nationalistic closet. Netanyahu has removed his mask," the leader of the centre-right Kadima party Shaul Mofaz told public radio, calling on the centre to unify. "Bibi" Netanyahu and Lieberman's together might "encourage the centre-right parties to announce close cooperation in a national salvation front," wrote Yossi Sarid, former Knesset member for the left-wing Meretz party in a column in left-leaning daily Haaretz.Such a front would have "but a single mission: no to 'Biberman'."Speaking on public radio, Labour chief Shelly Yachimovich called for the creation of a "centre-left bloc, consisting of the centrist parties and moderate members of the Likud."In recent weeks media have noted the ambitions of potential candidates, such as former prime minister Ehud Olmert and former foreign minister Tzipi Livni, to head a centrist bloc to compete with Netanyahu.The Likud-Yisrael Beitenu alliance also threatens the orthodox parties, which could lose the pivotal role they have wielded in past coalitions, and they could even be excluded from the next one.According to commentators, Netanyahu's pact with Lieberman implies the adoption of at least some of Yisrael Beitenu's platform.Its policies include military conscription of rabbinic seminary (yeshivot) students and reducing the power of the Chief Rabbinate on matters such as conversions.The Israeli parliament decided earlier this month that the election would be held on January 22, 2013, nine months before its scheduled date.

EU lawmakers cancel Iran visit

A planned visit to Iran by five Euro MPs was called off on Saturday after Tehran refused to let them meet with a jailed activist lawyer and a filmmaker, just a day after the two were awarded a prestigious European human rights prize."The five MEPs were about to leave for Tehran when delegation chair (Tarja) Cronberg received a phone call from the Iranian ambassador to the EU, saying they would not be allowed to meet with the two Sakharov Prize winners," jailed lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and filmmaker Jafar Panahi, a European Parliament source said.Sotoudeh, 47, who is serving an 11-year jail sentence for conspiring against state security, and Panahi, 52, who is under house arrest and has been banned from making films for 20 years, were awarded the 2012 Sakharov Prize on Friday."The Islamic Republic of Iran categorically rejected any pre-conditions. Therefore this visit has been cancelled," the Young Journalists Club, an affiliate of the state broadcaster, reported on its website.The Isna news agency quoted Hossein Sheikholeslam, international affairs advisor to the speaker of parliament, as saying that Iran had "rejected a pre-condition set by the European parliamentary delegation to meet with two prisoners".EU sanctions"If the delegation agrees to visit Iran under the initially agreed conditions and agenda, then there is no objection to the visit... But we cannot accept the current pre-condition."Iran has cracked down on both since its disputed June 2009 presidential election.Sotoudeh is a leading human rights campaigner known for her work as a lawyer representing opposition activists, while Panahi has been acclaimed at international festivals for his gritty, socially critical movies.The human rights and democracy prize "is a message of solidarity and recognition to a woman and a man who have not been bowed by fear and intimidation and who have decided to put the fate of their country before their own", Parliament President Martin Schulz said on Friday.Schulz had also warned that the visit would be cancelled if the delegation was unable to meet Sotoudeh and Panahi.The rights award comes on the heels of tough new EU sanctions against Iran aimed at forcing a breakthrough in talks between global powers and Tehran on its disputed nuclear programme.After a biting oil embargo took effect in July, EU foreign ministers last week tightened the economic noose by targeting dealings with Iran's banks, shipping and gas imports.The last visit by a European parliamentary delegation to Iran was in 2007.