Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts

Friday, May 10, 2013

NEWS,10.05.2013



Gang steals $45m worldwide through ATMs


A worldwide gang of criminals stole $45m in a matter of hours by hacking their way into a database of prepaid debit cards and then draining cash machines around the globe, federal prosecutors said and outmoded US card technology may be partly to blame.

Seven people were under arrest on Thursday in the
US in connection with the case, which prosecutors said involved thousands of thefts from ATMs using bogus magnetic swipe cards carrying information from Middle Eastern banks.

The fraudsters moved with astounding speed to loot financial institutions around the world, working in cells including one in
New York, Brooklyn US Attorney Loretta Lynch said.

She called it “a massive 21st-century bank heist” carried out by brazen thieves.

One of the suspects was caught on surveillance cameras, his backpack increasingly loaded down with cash, authorities said.

Others took photos of themselves with giant wads of bills as they made their way up and down
Manhattan.

Here's how they did it:

Phase 1: Card processor network intrusion. Using malware, hackers breached the worldwide processors for Rakbank in the United Arab Emirates and the Bank of
Muscat in Oman.

Phase 2: The criminals override security protocols and hunt for the prepaid debit card systems and delete limits on the accounts. It takes months to penetrate the systems, prosecutors said.

Phase 3: Access codes are created. Data is loaded onto any plastic card with a magnetic stripe an old hotel key card or an expired credit card would do as long as it carried the account data and correct access codes.

Phase 4: Cells around the globe fan out and begin to make repeated cash machine withdrawals. In
New York City alone, 750 transactions were made in two hours and 25 minutes from 140 different ATMs totaling $400,000, prosecutors said.

Phase 5: Hackers maintain unauthorized access to the banks to monitor the cashout, keeping withdrawals rolling until the breach is discovered and the systems shut down.

Phase 6: Cash is laundered and organizers are paid.

It appears no individuals lost money.

The thieves plundered funds held by the banks that back up prepaid credit cards, not individual or business accounts, Lynch said.

She called it a “virtual criminal flash mob,” and a security analyst said it was the biggest ATM fraud case she had heard of.

There were two separate attacks, one in December that reaped $5 million worldwide and one in February that snared about $40m in 10 hours with about 36 000 transactions.

The scheme involved attacks on two banks, Rakbank in the United Arab Emirates and the Bank of
Muscat in Oman, prosecutors said.

The plundered ATMs were in
Japan, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Colombia, Britain, Sri Lanka, Canada and several other countries, and law enforcement agencies from more than a dozen nations were involved in the investigation, U.S. prosecutors said.

The accused ringleader in the
U.S. cell, Alberto Yusi Lajud-Pena, was reportedly killed in the Dominican Republic late last month, prosecutors said. More investigations continue and other arrests have been made in other countries, but prosecutors did not have details.

An indictment unsealed Thursday accused Lajud-Pena and the other seven
New York suspects of withdrawing $2.8m in cash from hacked accounts in less than a day.

Such ATM fraud schemes are not uncommon, but the $45 million stolen in this one was at least double the amount involved in previously known cases, said Avivah Litan, an analyst who covers security issues for Gartner Inc.

Middle Eastern banks and payment processors are “a bit behind” on security and screening technologies that are supposed to prevent this kind of fraud, but it happens around the world, she said.

“It’s a really easy way to turn digits into cash,” Litan said.

Some of the fault lies with the ubiquitous magnetic strips on the back of the cards. The rest of the world has largely abandoned cards with magnetic strips in favour of ones with built-in chips that are nearly impossible to copy. But because
U.S. banks and merchants have stuck to cards with magnetic strips, they are still accepted around the world.

Lynch would not say who masterminded the attacks globally, who the hackers are or where they were located, citing an ongoing investigation.

The
New York suspects were US citizens originally from the Dominican Republic, lived in the New York City suburb orf Yonkers and were mostly in their 20s. Lynch said they all knew one another and were recruited together, as were cells in other countries.

They were charged with conspiracy and money laundering. If convicted, they face 10 years in prison.

Arrests began in March.

Lajud-Pena was found dead with a suitcase full of about $100
000 in cash, and the investigation into his death is continuing separately. Dominican officials said they arrested a man in the killing who said it was a botched robbery, and two other suspects were on the lam.

The first federal study of ATM fraud was 30 years ago, when the use of computers in the financial community was growing rapidly. At the time, the Bureau of Justice Statistics found nationwide ATM bank loss from fraud ranged from $70 and $100m a year.

By 2008, that had risen to about $1bn a year, said Ken Pickering, who works in security intelligence at CORE Security, a white-hat hacking firm that offers security to businesses.

He said he expects news of the latest ring to inspire other criminals.

“Once you see a large attack like this, that they made off with $45m, that’s going to wake up the cybercrime community,” he said.

“Ripping off cash, you don’t get that back,” he said. “There are suitcases full of cash floating around now, and that’s just gone.”


Cars made in Brazil 'deadly'


The cars roll endlessly off the local assembly lines of the industry's biggest automakers, more than 10 000 a day, into the eager hands of Brazil's new middle class. The shiny new Fords, Fiats, and Chevrolets tell the tale of an economy in full bloom that now boasts the fourth largest auto market in the world.
What happens once those vehicles hit the streets, however, is shaping up as a national tragedy, experts say, with thousands of Brazilians dying every year in auto accidents that in many cases shouldn't have proven fatal.
The culprits are the cars themselves, produced with weaker welds, scant safety features and inferior materials compared to similar models manufactured for US and European consumers, say experts and engineers inside the industry. Four of Brazil's five bestselling cars failed their independent crash tests.
Unsafe cars, coupled with the South American nation's often dangerous driving conditions, have resulted in a Brazilian death rate from passenger car accidents that is nearly four times that of the United States, according to an Associated Press analysis of Brazilian Health Ministry data on deaths compared to the size of each country's car fleet. In fact, the two countries are moving in opposite directions on survival rates - the US recorded 40% fewer fatalities from car wrecks in 2010 compared with a decade before. In Brazil, the number killed rose 72%, according to the latest available data.
Dr. Dirceu Alves, of Abramet, a Brazilian association of doctors that specializes in treating traffic accident victims, said poorly built cars take an unnecessary toll.
"The gravity of the injuries arriving at the hospitals is just ugly," he said, "injuries that should not be occurring."
Automakers in Brazil point out that their cars meet the nation's safety laws. Some said they build even tougher cars for the country because of its poorly maintained roadways and rejected any notion that cost-cutting in production leads to fatalities.
But the country's few safety activists perceive a deadly double standard, with automakers earning more money from selling cars that offer drivers fewer safeguards - a worrisome gap for new middle-class households, whose surging spending power has outpaced consumer protections taken for granted in more developed countries. The problem extends beyond Brazil, with economic forecasts showing the majority of global growth in auto sales taking place in emerging-market nations as the world's auto fleet doubles to 1.5 billion by 2020.
"Entry-level cars in Brazil are incredibly dangerous, it can't be denied. The death rate from accidents is far too high," said Maria Ines Dolci, coordinator of the Rio de Janeiro-based consumer defence group Proteste. "The manufacturers do this because the cars are a little cheaper to make and the demands of the Brazilian consumers are less; their knowledge of safety issues is lower than in Europe or the US."
Manufacturers earn a 10% profit on Brazilian-made cars, compared with 3% in the US and a global average of 5%, according to IHS Automotive, an industry consulting firm.
Only next year will laws require frontal air bags and antilock braking systems on all cars, safety features that have been standard in industrial countries for years. The country will also have new impact regulations on paper, at least; Brazilian regulators don't have their own crash-test facility to verify automakers' claims about vehicle performance, nor are there independent labs in the country.
Experts say those requirements alone are not sufficient to meet basic safety standards. Some models sold in Brazil, like the Chinese-made JAC J3, scored only one star in a recent crash test despite having air bags and antilock brakes.
An independent pilot effort known as the Latin New Car Assessment Program has run initial tests of Brazil's most popular car models, and the results are bleak.
The cheapest models of four of the five top-selling cars, made by General Motors, Volkswagen and Fiat, received a one-star rating, out of five stars, while other top sellers also scored poorly. Such a rating means cars provide little protection in serious head-on wrecks, compared to four- or five-star rated cars, which are virtually the minimum that consumers in the US and Europe buy.
"The difference is you're talking about somebody dead in the vehicle or dying very quickly, or somebody being able to get out of the vehicle themselves," said David Ward, director general of the London-based FIA Foundation for auto safety, which supports the Euro and Latin NCAP programs. "It's definitely a difference between life and death."
The squat Ford Ka hatchback sold in Europe scored four stars when it was tested by Euro NCAP in 2008; its Latin American version scored one star.
Ford acknowledged that particular Ka is built on an outdated platform, and said it cannot be compared with the European version of the same name - it's that different. The company said it aims to have all its cars produced in Brazil built on updated, global platforms by 2015.
The Mexico-produced Nissan March compact sold in Latin America received a two-star rating from Latin NCAP, while the version sold for about the same price in Europe, called the Micra, scored four stars. The crash tests found the Latin American model had a weak, unstable body structure that offered occupants little protection in even non-serious wrecks.
In an emailed statement, Nissan said the March sold in Brazil is "practically the same model" offered in Europe. "The difference in the results achieved in Europe and Latin America is due to variations in the NCAP tests applied in different parts of the world."
Not so, said Alejandro Furas, technical director for the Global NCAP crash test programs.
"We perform the frontal crash test exactly in the same way as the Euro NCAP," he said. "The March and Micra were tested in the same lab, with the same type of crash test dummies, under the same conditions with the same people running the laboratory."
The Euro NCAP tests are more complete. They include side-impact and other tests, while the Latin American version only records front-impacts. Each type of impact test is individually scored on a 16-point scale.
The March sold in Brazil obtained a 7.62 rating in its frontal-impact test. The Micra fared much better, 12.7 points.
Italian automaker Fiat said in an emailed statement that "in general, Brazilian projects receive more reinforcements" within the cars' bodies to fortify them against the nation's "harsher roads and terrain."
However, NCAP tests found that Fiat's best-selling car in Brazil, called the Novo Uno, had an unstable body structure and scored it just one star.
Crash-test footage shows the front of the car folding up like an accordion, giving it a 2.0 point rating, the second lowest of the 28 cars NCAP has examined. Consumers purchased nearly 256 000 Novo Uno's last year - the second-most popular car in the country.
Renault's safety standards also vary. The French company builds its Sandero in Brazil, selling 98 400 cars last year. That car scored one star on the Latin NCAP test, but the model sold in Europe, made by Renault's Romanian subsidiary Dacia, scored three stars.
Renault said the safety record of the Sandero and its other cars were on par with autos of the same class in Brazil.
One of those is the VW Gol, Brazil's best-selling car for the last decade.
Volkswagen said it strives to maintain a global standard for body strength, putting the same number of welds on the same models regardless of where they're produced, and using high-strength steel in Brazilian cars. It added that since 1998 it's given Brazilian consumers the option of buying a car with air bags - its Gol Trend model with two frontal air bags scored three stars, while the same model without air bags scored one star.
The company didn't respond to requests for figures on how many consumers requested air bags.
"Structural integrity during a crash is a global standard for Volkswagen," the company said in an emailed statement. "The passenger compartment for the Gol remained stable and thus guarantees survival space for occupants."
Latin NCAP has tested three VW models. The Gol and the Polo had stable bodies. The Bora sedan, however, was rated as unstable, though other factors helped it score three stars.
And then there are the cars the companies do not market outside Latin America, such as the Celta by GM. Celta is Brazil's No. 5 car in terms of sales, with 137 615 sold last year. It received one star after its door unhinged and the passenger cabin roof bent into an inverted V shape during its crash test.
General Motors had no comment other than to say that its cars in Brazil are legal.
An engineer for a major US automaker, speaking only on condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job, said he has watched for years as his company failed to implement more advanced safety features in Brazil, simply because the law did not require them.
""The automakers are pleased to make more profitable cars for countries where the demands, whatever they may be, are less rigorous," he said. "It happens everywhere - India, China and Russia, for example."
Car crashes
About 40 million Brazilians moved into the middle class during the past decade with more income than ever to buy their first car. The growth potential is enormous: One out of every seven Brazilians owns a car, while the US vehicle fleet covers nearly every American.
But as auto sales boom in Brazil, so have the number of accidents and deaths.
An analysis of Health Ministry data shows that 9 059 car occupants died in vehicle crashes in Brazil in 2010, according to the most recent statistics available. That same year, 12 435 people in the US were killed in car crashes, though the US passenger car fleet is five times larger than Brazil's. The result: Brazilian automobile crash victims died at four times the rate as those in the US.
The dangers come down to basics, engineers said: the lack of body reinforcements, lower-quality steel in car bodies, weaker or fewer weld spots to hold the vehicles together and car platforms designed decades before modern safety advances.
"The electricity used in building a car is about 20% of the cost of the structure," said Marcilio Alves, an engineering professor at Brazil's premier University of Sao Paulo and one of the few independent researchers in the nation looking at car safety.
"If you save on electricity, you save on cost. One way to save electricity is either reducing the number of spot welds or using less energy for each spot weld made. This affects structural performance in the event of a crash."
In a car with no air bags and an unstable body structure, a driver's biggest danger is the steering wheel.
A weak body structure and fragile steering column make it easier for the wheel to slam into the driver's chest and abdomen in frontal crashes, the deadliest and most common, causing serious damage to vital organs.
Ward talks of steering wheels that break off and "float" during wrecks in poorly made cars - moving around the cabin in the driver's area. That means that even if an air bag is deployed, the steering wheel may go around or under it and directly hit the driver.
Many Brazilian car bodies also don't contain crumple zones, areas that absorb energy during wrecks. The omission endangers occupants' lower limbs, as foot wells rip off and expose feet and legs to car parts slamming into them from the front.
"If a car's body cannot absorb the energy of a crash, it will logically result in more damage, more injuries to passengers," said Alves, the doctor who specialises in traffic accident victims.
One auto engineer described the situation by sketching two car body designs with identical perimeters, but one depicted internal gaps -missing body reinforcements.
He worked three decades for Volkswagen and spent the last 10 years as an independent engineering consultant for big automakers. He asked that his name not be published for fear of losing contracts and benefits.
"The secret of a car's body being able to withstand the crash test are the weld spots," he said.
"Let's say this is a German car," he pointed to the gapless sketch. "It's really sophisticated. Nothing is missing."
Then he pointed at the car made in Brazil, full of incomplete ink strokes.
"The Brazilian version looks the same from the outside, but its missing pieces," he said. "In one version they include the reinforcement, in the other they don't. What's of interest is the final shape. What's inside, nobody can see."
No lawsuits
In 2008, Carlos Alberto Lopes, then a 23-year-old waiter, was riding in a one-star car travelling about 50 mph on a rainy highway in the south-eastern Brazilian state of Minas Gerais when the road curved smoothly left. The car hydroplaned, skidded into an embankment and rolled several times down a long incline. Of the four occupants, Lopes was the only one with serious injuries, leaving him paralysed from the waist down.
Lopes says the three-point seatbelt he was wearing didn't lock his body in place, allowing him to repeatedly hit the collapsing roof as the car rolled. He suffered a crushed vertebra.
"If the seatbelt had locked when the car rolled I wouldn't have hit my back. None of this would have happened," Lopes said.
A study by a chain of Brazilian rehabilitation centres where Lopes is being treated found that in 2011, 40% of the patients it worked with in Sao Paulo with serious spinal injuries were hurt in traffic accidents.
Lopes never considered a lawsuit. In fact, in more than a dozen interviews with accident victims left paralysed after crashes, not one considered taking legal action against vehicle manufacturers.
That's in part a reflection of the lack of police investigations into car accidents, the majority of which, like Lopes', only result in simple "occurrence bulletins" that include minimal information.
But it's also indicative of the deference Brazil's new middle class consumers show to automakers and most other industries.
"We're 20 years behind the US and Europe in terms of consumer awareness," said Dolci, coordinator of the Proteste consumer defence group. "The new, emerging middle class entering the market has little information on car safety. They think little of automobile security. It's this very class of consumer the automakers are targeting and to whom they're selling a mountain of cars."
Accidents like Lopes' involve more than a poorly built car.
Drivers fail to obey traffic laws, which many of the region's governments notoriously don't enforce. Cars must navigate crumbling roads and poorly designed highway systems that all but make gridlock and accidents unavoidable. And many drivers simply value perks such as alloy wheels and sound systems over unseen crumple zones.
In 1965, there were 47 089 motor vehicle fatalities in the US. That same year, consumer activist Ralph Nader's famous indictment of the auto industry was published, Unsafe at Any Speed. The book ignited a national discussion on auto safety and ultimately led to reforms that dramatically refashioned the industry's standards, helping lead to a 32% drop in deaths by 2011.
Nader said halting the growing number of auto deaths in Brazil would take "a public uproar, product liability lawsuits, selective boycotts by motorists or by mandatory Brazilian law equalising safety standards with the safest engineering required in other countries."
"These responses in the past have worked in other countries confronted by auto industry double standards for protecting lives on the highway. Such actions are long overdue but now Brazilians know the truth in more detail," he said.
The Brazilian government says its new laws mandating frontal air bags and anti-lock brakes will dramatically improve safety, as will new impact standards. But because there are no independent crash-test centres in Brazil, companies will not face the same scrutiny as elsewhere. They will run the impact tests themselves and present the results to the government for approval. Because there is no "conformity of production" clause in the Brazilian legislation, cars won't be spot-checked to ensure they meet safety laws.
Alexandre Cordeiro, the top government minister overseeing auto safety laws, acknowledged that the government doesn't have its own crash-test centre - but said Brazil will monitor crash tests conducted outside the country.
"Regarding front- and rear-end crash tests, our cars are as secure as European or American cars," Cordeiro said.
However, when asked about the stark differences in performance that the NCAP tests document between Brazilian and European cars, Cordeiro acknowledged improvements need to be made, saying "we need to evolve and we're working on it."
Over the years Ward said he has watched the same battles play out over auto safety - the only thing that changes is the location.
"The sad thing is, this has been the experience in the 1960s in the US, in the 1990s in Europe and now in Latin America," Ward said. "The industry does the least it can get away with until they're forced to do something different. It's maddening." 

Obama vows to boost jobs, economic growth


President Barack Obama pledged on a trip to Texas on Thursday to take steps to accelerate economic growth, turning his attention to job creation after concentrating on gun-control legislation and immigration reform in recent months.
Obama was kicking off events he has scheduled across the country to draw attention to his efforts to boost economic growth through jobs that benefit the middle class, White House officials said.
"Watching cable TV sometimes, you might get to thinking nothing's going right. But the truth is there's a lot of reasons for us to feel optimistic about where we're headed as a country," he told students and staff at Manor New Technology High School outside Austin.
The first trip on his jobs tour comes as a poll shows that what Americans want most from politicians in Washington is job creation and action to help the economy grow.
But the president's economic efforts face opposition from congressional Republicans who remain set on cutting federal spending and shrinking the size of government as a path to stronger economic growth.
Republicans have wasted no opportunity to blame Obama for an economy where the unemployment rate remains a relatively high 7.5% four years after the end of the deep 2007-2009 recession.
The office of Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry - who was one of the president's greeters on arrival - said in a tweet, "Obama should have focused on jobs and opportunity five years ago."
At the Texas school he visited, Obama praised efforts to expand science and math education and watched students operate robots they had built.
"You look like some serious engineers," he told them.
The president's visit also included stops at Applied Sciences, a maker of semiconductors and other technology, and meetings with business people and ordinary citizens, including a visit to Stubb's Bar-B-Q restaurant.
Obama has suffered some recent policy setbacks. He failed to persuade Congress to accept expanded background checks for gun buyers following the December shootings of 20 children and six adults at a school in Newtown, Connecticut.
He also is at an impasse with congressional Republicans over a deficit reduction deal he insists should include higher tax revenues, which Republicans oppose.
While the president appears to be making headway in reforming immigration laws, final legislation is months off.
Sparring over the economy
White House officials on Thursday criticised congressional Republicans for reviving plans to use the debt ceiling as leverage to extract spending cuts and tax reductions, as well as for allowing deep spending cuts known as "sequestration" to remain in place.
"The status quo doesn't serve any of the long-term objectives of job growth or competitiveness," White House National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling told reporters during a conference call.
"Those who are serious about our economic recovery, our economic stability, our economic standing, should not be contemplating putting our economy at risk of default," he said.
A Gallup poll released on Tuesday found 86% of those surveyed this month ranked creating jobs as their top priority for action by Congress and Obama, tied at 86% with helping the economy grow.
Lower on the priority list were reducing the federal deficit at 69%, reforming the tax code at 59%, reducing gun violence at 55% and reforming immigration at 50%.
Obama in his speech on Thursday pointed to signs of economic recovery, such as improved corporate profits, a resurgence in the auto industry and a boom in energy.
A top Republican attacked Obama, however, for failing to generate stronger economic growth with his policies.
"That's the Obama economy," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said. "I hope the president is traveling to Austin today because he's finally serious about turning that around - about changing course and implementing policies that might actually work to get the economy moving again."
McConnell singled out Obama's signature healthcare legislation as an obstacle to hiring.
The White House announced a competition for locations to house three manufacturing institutes where businesses, government and educational institutions will get funding to develop new technologies.
The president also issued an executive order requiring that newly released government data be made freely available in easily readable formats.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

NEWS,10.11.2012



Obama 'open to compromise' to avoid cuts


Newly re-elected President Barack Obama has offered to deal with Republicans to avert a looming US fiscal calamity but insisted a tax increase for the very rich must be part of the bargain.Obama reminded Republicans that his approach to avoiding steep tax hikes and spending cuts due in January, which could trigger another recession, had just won the backing of Americans at the polls.He spoke just hours after John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, had repeated his party's commitment not to raise anyone's tax rates as part of a deal to address the fiscal crisis.In his first event at the White House since beating Republican Mitt Romney in Tuesday's election, Obama called on Congress to work with him to produce a plan and invited congressional leaders to meet with him next week."I'm not wedded to every detail of my plan. I'm open to compromise. I'm open to new ideas," he said.The "fiscal cliff" of steep government spending cuts and tax increases due to be implemented under existing law in early 2013 is Obama's most pressing challenge after winning a second term.Aimed at cutting the federal budget deficit, the planned measures could take an estimated $600 billion out of the economy and severely hinder economic growth.While striking a conciliatory tone toward the Republican House majority, Obama said voters supported his ideas, including raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans."I just want to point out, this was a central question during the election. It was debated over and over again. And on Tuesday night we found out that the majority of Americans agree with my approach," he said.Earlier, Boehner called on Obama to play a more active role in addressing the issue and urged the president to take the lead in negotiations."This is an opportunity for the president to lead. This is his moment to engage the Congress and work towards a solution that can pass both chambers," Boehner told a news conference.While disagreeing on immediate measures to avert the looming crisis, Obama and Republicans may find common ground in calls for enactment over the next six months of a larger package of deficit reduction measures, including a rewrite of US tax laws.The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office reiterated on Thursday that if left unaddressed, the abrupt fiscal tightening would knock the economy back into recession, with unemployment rates soaring back to about 9%. The rate is now 7.9%.But it also warned of a crisis ahead if the United States does not stem the growth of its exploding deficit.Partisan squabbling over the budget crisis will also harm the US economy, according to a strong majority of economists polled after Tuesday's presidential election.


Chavez On Obama Reelection: President Should Forget Global Wars, Fix Domestic Problems

 

The U.S. government's chief antagonist in Latin America, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, has advised newly re-elected U.S. President Barack Obama to avoid further entanglement in international conflicts and concentrate on fixing internal problems."He should reflect first on his own nation, which has a lot of economic and social problems. It's a divided, socially fractured country with a super-elite exploiting the people," the socialist president said late on Thursday in his first reaction to Obama's victory this week.The maverick Chavez, who has inherited Fidel Castro's mantle as Latin America's most voluble challenger of U.S. power and policy, said it was time Obama pulled back from global affairs."He should dedicate himself to governing his country and forget dividing and invading other nations," added Chavez, who has constantly criticized U.S. involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan and other hot spots around the world.To the disappointment of the U.S. government, Chavez was re-elected for another six-year term in October, providing a continued platform to implement his self-styled socialist revolution and keep railing against Washington.The 58-year-old Chavez, a quieter figure these days after a year of debilitating treatment for two bouts of cancer, had backed Obama over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the White House.Nevertheless, he does not disguise his disappointment in Obama, accusing him of perpetuating the same aggressive foreign policies as his predecessor, George W. Bush.Since his Oct. 7 presidential election victory over opposition challenge Henrique Capriles, Chavez has been relatively subdued, only popping up on state television once or twice a week in meetings with ministers.He has made no major new policy announcements, beyond promising more efficiency in government and a widening of socialist "communes" across Venezuelan society.Many Venezuelans expect a devaluation of the bolivar currency in coming months the black market rate is three times the official one and perhaps more nationalizations in an economy where Chavez has radically increased state ownership.Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Chavez made light of nationalization concerns, urging businesses not to fear him."Come and invest! Don't believe the fairy tale that we're going to expropriate you," he said in comments on state TV.Earlier in the week, Chavez plied the same line, espousing a supposed new moderation toward private business that critics scoff at as hypocritical and barely believable."It's totally false that I have a plan to expropriate everyone," he said then. "Don't be deceived by that tale of 'here comes the wolf.' Lies. I'm urging you to come and work."He was less conciliatory in his view of Venezuela's upcoming state elections on Dec. 16, casting them in his Thursday appearance as a continuation of the state's battle against "counter-revolutionary" candidates of "the bourgeoisie.""We have to keep fighting this ideological confrontation," he urged his candidates for governorships in the 23 states.The most closely watched vote is in Miranda state, where incumbent governor Capriles aims to hold off a challenge from Elias Jaua, a heavyweight Chavez ally and former vice president.Should Capriles lose, it would dent his status as Venezuela's main opposition leader and deal another blow to the coalition of anti-Chavez parties already demoralized by their failure to oust him from the presidency.However, pollster IVAD put Capriles way ahead this week, with 55 percent of voter intentions versus 34 percent for Jaua. The opposition currently holds seven states.


A Trade Policy for President Obama's Second Term

 

President Obama's trade policy in his first term included working with Congress to pass free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, continuing negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and expanding it to include Canada and Mexico. Moreover, Obama set a goal of doubling exports by 2014, established a trade enforcement council and increased WTO dispute settlement to enforce existing international trade laws. He also effectively managed the complex U.S.China economic relationship, getting China to more effectively protect US intellectual property rights and ending China's so-called indigenous innovation policies. During the next four years the president should build on this progress and develop a comprehensive trade policy that does three things: 1) builds greater cooperation with China 2) pursues comprehensive and high quality free trade agreements; and 3) articulates a vision for moving the WTO Doha Round forward.The size of U.S.-China trade makes building this bilateral relationship key to achieving Obama's goal of doubling exports and for making progress on broader U.S. goals on an international level. But the size and growing trade deficit - which in 2011 was $295 billion and is on track to be even larger in 2012 - feeds concerns about unfair Chinese business practices and American economic and manufacturing decline, which ultimately makes advancing the economic relationship with China rather difficult.The challenge for Obama is that the size of trade deficit is unlikely going to change much in the next four years because of China's role in global supply chains as the major assembly point for goods made from components sourced from South East Asia, Europe, the U.S. and Japan. In this light, the U.S.-China trade deficit is the accumulation of declining U.S. trade deficits with countries like Japan, South Korea and Malaysia as businesses in these countries have shifted production to China. This shift to more efficient and cost-effective production conditions has led to significant decreases in the prices of these imported goods to American businesses and consumers. One way to reduce the bilateral trade deficit would be to address China's undervalued currency. An undervalued renminbi (RMB) has the effect of making Chinese imports cheaper and American exports to China more expensive. Therefore a revaluation would reduce the deficit by increasing U.S. exports to China and reducing imports from China. The dispute about China's undervalued currency has also negatively affected broader U.S. trade goals, such as concluding the WTO Doha Round since the undervalued RMB caused developing country to resist further reductions in tariffs due to concerns about competition from cheap Chinese imports. That said, the net economic impacts of China's undervalued currency for the U.S. are unclear as a lower RMB also leads to cheaper goods for American consumers and businesses. While an appreciating RMB will likely lead businesses to relocate to lower cost countries and thereby reduce the U.S.China trade deficit, it will not lead to a decrease in the overall U.S. trade deficit.But reducing these US concerns about the RMB and the trade deficit, other areas for cooperation with China like clean energy should open up. President Obama supports developing green energy in the U.S. and China's 12th Five Year Plan includes ambitious domestic renewable energy goals. These goals could be complimentary with the U.S. specializing in high-end green technologies and services and China manufacturing components like solar photovoltaic cells. A liberalized trading regime in green energy would underpin this outcome, leading to the most efficient allocation of resources and reducing the costs of renewable energy in both countries. But concerns in the U.S. about Chinese subsidies for renewable energy and a U.S. focus on developing green manufacturing capacity has already led to WTO litigation. Both countries should instead use the trading system to support this common goal and build on the recent agreement in APEC to reduce tariffs on a range of environmental goods by expanding the list of environmental goods and addressing other trade barriers affecting green energy goods and services.Currently, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is the only significant free trade agreement (FTA) the U.S. is pursuing and completing the negotiations should certainly be a priority for the next Obama administration. The main outstanding issue is whether Japan will join the current negotiations. While Japan's participation would slow down the talks, it would secure Japan's support for the trade and investment rules that the U.S. wants for the Asia-Pacific region and provide economic heft to the TPP. All this would increase the incentive for other countries to join the TPP and create further momentum toward an Asia-Pacific FTA, reinforcing Obama's broader strategic "pivot" towards Asia.A big potential new FTA is with the EU the US's largest bilateral trading partner. Most tariffs between the US and the EU are already low, so improving market access will require addressing so-called behind the border regulatory measures such as on genetically modified organisms, vehicle safety standards and pharmaceutical health and safety laws. Prior experience addressing trade barriers in the Transatlantic Economic Council suggests that making progress on these issues will not be easy. However a US-EU FTA would certainly deliver economic benefits for the U.S. and European Union.President Obama can be expected to continue to efforts to conclude parts of the WTO Doha Round, focusing on a services agreement, expansion of the international technology agreement and trade facilitation. However, only multilateral trade liberalization will deliver the largest economic benefits for the U.S. and globally, and the U.S. as the necessary leader and largest beneficiary of the multilateral trading system should develop a strategy for concluding the WTO Doha Round during the next four years.

Friday, October 26, 2012

NEWS,26.10.2012



If Obama Wins, Clinton Will Stay At His Side: Countdown Day 11


Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are turning into the most watchable buddy-buddy road show since "Starsky and Hutch." All they're missing are platform shoes and a Gran Torino Next week they will travel together to Florida, Ohio and Virginia, as Clinton tries to infuse his explanatory magic into Obama's campaign-trail pitch in the final days of a grueling 2012 race.But as attention turns even before Election Day to the dreaded "fiscal cliff" looming at year's end, it's becoming clear that Clinton's sidekick duties will not be over on November 6 if Obama wins.If the current president gets the chance to try to fashion a post-election deal, he'll need Clinton's help in selling it to fellow Democrats.White House staffers are already working overtime on the details of various potential deals; corporate America is begging for demanding prompt action to avoid massive tax increases and draconian "sequestered" spending cuts on January 2.Administration officials argue that they will be in a better position to make a deal with the post-election Congress than a Romney proto-presidency would be.Obama long ago signaled willingness to take on his own party by countenancing entitlement cuts. Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), are irrevocably committed to not raising income tax rates on anyone, and not raising the overall tax burden.Since the essence of any deal would be concession on both sides of the ledger, Romney's first act as president-elect would require picking a tax fight with the Tea Party and perhaps Ryan.Meanwhile, Obama's staff and advisers inside and outside the White House many of them former staffers for Bill Clinton are looking at options. If their boss wins, talks will begin immediately."I don't see Clinton sitting in on the negotiations," said a source who is very close to both men. "Budget talks are incredibly detailed and exhausting. You have to be totally immersed, and the president has to take the lead. I don't see Clinton in that process."But if we get a tentative agreement, I expect that the former president will be asked to help sell it, and I am sure that he will," said the source, who asked for anonymity to frankly discuss both men. "Nobody could do it better."Clinton has done it before. In December 2010, Obama was forced to accept an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts in exchange for a deal to extend unemployment insurance, an extension of the payroll tax cut and other items on the Democrats' agenda.As it happened, a meeting with Clinton was already on the president's schedule that day. After the two met privately in the Oval Office, Clinton suggested off-the-cuff that they both go to the briefing room, where Clinton gave a ringing defense of the deal.A planned and elaborate version of the same thing could happen this December, if the president is reelected and can fashion a tentative agreement.Obama would need the help. He is not on good terms with members of Congress in general even, if not especially, with members of his own party, some of whom regard him as aloof to the point of condescension. There are some key Democrats in the House with whom he has never had a serious and extended conversation.The president has already indicated and indicated again recently in his interview with the Des Moines Register editorial board hat he is open to a deal that would include substantial new cuts to entitlement programs, an idea that is anathema to much of his party.Selling that part of the deal to constituencies such as labor, the Congressional Black Caucus and teachers groups, to name a few, would be Clinton's brief. As for family self-interest, there would be plenty. Most economists and business experts think that a real, substantive budget deal one that, for example, would save the $4 trillion suggested by the Simpson-Bowles Plan would boost both the psychology and reality of the American, and thus the global, economy.Four good years of Democratic-led U.S. economic growth would set things up nicely for current Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.There's never been a TV show like it, but "The Good Husband" might sell.

 

Powell endorsed Obama


An outspoken surrogate for Mitt Romney's White House campaign suggested late on Thursday that race was a factor in former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement of President Barack Obama.Former New Hampshire governor John Sununu told CNN that the re-endorsement of Obama by Powell - a Republican who served in both Bush presidencies but backed Obama in 2008 - was possibly due to both men being African-Americans."Frankly, when you take a look at Colin Powell you have to wonder whether that's an endorsement based on issues or whether he's got a slightly different reason for preferring President Obama," Sununu told CNN host Piers Morgan."When you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the United States, I applaud Colin for standing with him."The remarks by Sununu, a prominent and often flamboyant supporter of Romney, could inject race into a campaign the Republican challenger has tried to keep focused on the sluggish US economy.The remarks came just two days after Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, explaining his anti-abortion stance, sparked controversy by saying that pregnancies caused by rape are "something God intended to happen".Distracting from Republican argumentThose remarks threatened to slow Romney's progress in winning over vital women voters in key swing states and gave Obama an opening to brand Republicans as extremists when it comes to women's rights.Sununu's remarks could prove less damaging as Obama already enjoys overwhelming support among African-American voters but may further distract from Republicans' central argument against the president's economic policies.The two presidential candidates are locked in a virtual tie less than two weeks ahead of the 6 November election, with Romney enjoying a slight lead in national polls but Obama holding a narrow edge in vital battleground states.Powell, who served as chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President George H W Bush and secretary of state under President George W Bush, is a moderate Republican once seen as a promising presidential prospect.In his re-endorsement of Obama on Thursday, Powell credited the president with recent improvements in the economy and praised him as a steely commander-in-chief who had wound down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

US consumers boost economic growth


US economic growth picked up in the third quarter as a late burst in consumer spending offset the first cutbacks in investment in more than a year by cautious businesses.The stronger pace of expansion, however, fell short of what is needed to make much of a dent in unemployment, and offers little cheer for the White House ahead of the closely contested November 6 presidential election.Gross domestic product expanded at a 2% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, accelerating from the second quarter's 1.3% pace. A pace in excess of 2.5% is needed over several quarters to make substantial headway cutting the jobless rate.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9% growth pace in the third quarter. The report comes a little more than a week before the election in which President Barack Obama is trying to fend off Republican challenger Mitt Romney.Since climbing out of the 2007-09 recession, the economy has faced a series of headwinds from high gasoline prices to the debt turmoil in Europe and, lately, fears of US government austerity. It has struggled to exceed a 2% growth pace and remains about 4.5 million jobs short of where it stood when the downturn started. Consumers, however, largely shrugged off the impending sharp cuts in government spending and higher taxes, which are due at the start of the year absent congressional action. Indeed, they went on a bit of a shopping spree as the quarter wound down, buying a range of goods - including automobiles and Apple's iPhone 5.Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, grew at a 2% rate after increasing 1.5% in the prior period.Spending despite income squeezeHigh stock prices and firming house values have made households a bit more willing to take on new debt, supporting consumer spending. However, incomes were squeezed in the last quarter, causing households to save less to fund their purchases.The amount of income available to households after accounting for inflation and taxes rose at a tepid 0.8% rate in the third quarter, slowing for a brisk 3.1% pace the prior period. The saving rate slowed to a 3.7% rate after increasing 4% in the second quarter.The faster pace of spending was achieved despite a spike in inflation pressures as gasoline prices rose. A price index for personal spending rose at a 1.8% rate, accelerating from the second quarter's 0.7% pace. But a core inflation measure that strips out food and energy costs slowed to a 1.3% rate after rising 1.7% in the prior quarter, suggesting the increase in overall price pressures will be temporary. With about 23 million Americans either out of work or underemployed, there are fears the current pace of spending will not be sustained, especially if gasoline prices maintain their recent upward march and families get a higher tax bill in 2013.The automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts, known as the "fiscal cliff," will drain about $600bn out of the economy next year absent congressional action.Fiscal cliff fears have already hammered business spending, which dropped at a 1.3% pace in the third quarter, falling for the first time since the first three months of 2011.Part of the drag in business investment, which had been a source of strength for the economy, came from equipment and software, where outlays were the weakest since the second quarter of 2009.Spending on nonresidential structures contracted after five straight quarters of growth.In contrast, home building surged at a 14.4% rate, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve's ultra accommodative monetary policy stance, which has driven mortgage rates to record lows.Inventories were a drag on growth because of a drought in the country's Midwest, which has decimated crops. Farm inventories cut 0.42 percentage point from GDP growth. In addition, slowing global demand, particularly weakness in Europe and China, caused US exports to contract for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. That left a trade deficit that weighed on GDP growth.But there was surprisingly good news on government spending, which snapped eight straight quarters of declines on a strong rebound in defense outlays.


China: $4 Trillion in Dirty Money Should Worry Us All

Global Financial Integrity's new report on illicit financial flows from China showed some of the worst numbers that we've ever estimated. Crime, corruption, and tax evasion cost the world's largest country and second-largest economy $3.79 trillion from 2000-2011. To make matters even darker, illicit capital flight is intensifying. In 2011 alone, China lost over $600 billion more than any other single country lost over a ten year period when Global Financial Integrity estimated illicit financial flows from 2000-2009.At first glance, these numbers are so big that it can be difficult to wrap your head around them. Even for a country the size of China, $3.79 trillion is a lot of money. What does this look like in the concrete example? A story in The New York Times this morning reported that close family members of Wen Jiabao, the outgoing Premier of China, have accumulated $2.7 billion in wealth much of it housed offshore. His immediate family was awarded tremendous amounts of money in government contracts. This comes not long after The Wall Street Journal exposed that the wife of Bo Xilai, a rising star governor who was on the verge of being promoted to China's powerful Politburo, was responsible for the murder of a British citizen who helped her family smuggle as much as $1 billion to offshore tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions.Illicit financial flows on a massive scale as captured in the GFI study are how these corrupt billionaires hoard their money. Global Financial Integrity's new report found that in 2010 alone, $213.7 billion of foreign direct investment flowing into China was officially reported to come from the British Virgin Islands population 28,000. This is likely the result of round tripping where Chinese elites launder money through secrecy jurisdictions and back into China in order to disguise its source and is what you would expect wealthy Chinese elites to do if their wealth was earned illegally. However, massive amounts of money are indeed leaving China and not returning. Our report found that of the $2.83 trillion that flowed out of China since 2005, almost $600 billion wound up as deposits or liquid assets in tax havens.This has tremendous implications for the Chinese economy. Our report found that illicit financial flows are increasingly driving inequality in China, and may reflect recent concerns about Chinese elites wishing to leave the country. At some point, something has to give. Crime, corruption, and tax evasion will threaten China's economy, and as a result, the global economy if this trend continues. In the words of our Lead Economist, Dev Kar, "[China's] social, political, and economic order is not sustainable in the long-run given such massive illicit outflows."China has seen massive, world-changing, economic growth over the past three decades. However, corruption is undermining much of this growth. The infrastructure that China is building right now should drive growth, and therefore raise living standards for the Chinese people for a century to come. However, many of the brand new bridges, roads, and modern buildings in China have been plagued by shoddy quality and massive amounts of corruption. Our research suggests that much of this money is flowing out of China.I spent most of my professional life as an entrepreneur in Nigeria, and lived there for 15 years. Despite massive oil wealth and a vibrant, young population, 45% of the population lives below the poverty line. Per-capita GDP has barely risen since I first set foot there in the 1960s. I know far too many people living worse off today than they did decades ago. This is not because the Nigerian economy lacks promise it has huge oil exports, and the country is filled with good, ambitious,entrepreneurial people but because crime, corruption, and tax evasion have torn the country apart.When China is growing at close to 10% every year, China's median citizen sees their life improving despite endemic corruption and illicit outflows. However, there are serious questions for the political and social stability of China's economy if growth slows. Will the median citizen continue to tolerate obvious and tragic corruption on the scale that we are seeing when more modest growth is not improving their living standards? When we say that illicit flows drive inequality, it is because money moved illegally out of the economy hurts your average person. That money can't be spent on schools, infrastructure or basic services. To make matters worse, our prior research finds that illicit flows drive underground economies, resulting in more organized crime, smuggling, and other factors that undermine the Chinese economy.A recent Pew poll suggests the average citizen may be getting restless.  The study released last week found that roughly half of the Chinese public now see corruption and inequality as "very big problems" in their country, a significant spike from 2008 when the poll was last conducted.Still, the world needs to do something about this. Potential political unrest in China affects us all. We make it far too easy for wealthy elites all over the world to stash their money in tax havens, including the United States. The world cannot afford to let China collapse into a pit of corruption and civil unrest.  The result would be a disaster.