NEWS,21.08.2012

Israel's Posturing: Behind Netanyahu and Barak's Threats to Attack Iran

Successive Israeli governments have consistently inhibited in the past any public discussion about Iran's nuclear program and what Israel might do to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In recent weeks however, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak have been openly discussing the issue while intimating their readiness to take whatever actions necessary to eliminate the Iranian threat. The question is why Netanyahu and Barak have chosen to "advertise" their deep concerns now and why they have such an urgency to act at this particular juncture, both of which have prompted newspaper reporters and bandits to speculate about what the real intentions are behind this public exposure and what is to be expected. Meanwhile, former and current officials, including President Peres, have expressed pointed objections to taking any unilateral military strikes against Iran, insisting that if such action became necessary, it must certainly be led by the U.S. to shield Israel from being singled out and blamed for the potentially disastrous regional consequences.Having concluded that sanctions and diplomacy have failed as Iran is either technologically nearing the point of no return or achieving a zone of immunity that will make their most advanced nuclear plants at Fordo (near Qom) impregnable to air attack, the Netanyahu government has decided on a new strategy designed to achieve multiple purposes. While Israel's determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has not changed, the new strategy is meant to strongly convey that Israel is not bluffing. Israel's groundwork for the new strategy is as follows: Israel will alert its closest ally, the U.S., alarm its European friends, credibly threaten Iran and gather more information, warn other enemies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, test the private sentiments and public reactions of the Sunni Arab states, and will finally prepare the Israeli public while laying in wait for the right moment to strike, should everything else fail.The Netanyahu government has already expressed its displeasure with the strategy the Obama administration has adopted to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Whereas many Israelis believe that President Obama's credibility is on the line and he will act militarily should it become necessary, others, including Netanyahu and Barak, are not so sure. They are concerned that Obama may eventually have to choose between preventing or containing Iran and will settle on the latter by providing Israel and other Arab allies in the region with some kind of security umbrella.Netanyahu and Barak are troubled by the fact that Obama has relied excessively on a diplomatic solution knowing full well that the Iranians are masters of playing for time. Moreover, he chose to impose gradual sanctions to which the Iranian government was able to adjust instead of inflicting real, crippling sanctions, especially after the failure of the first few sets of negotiations, which could have forced Tehran to change course. This approach, from the Israeli perspective, played into Iran's hand while engaging the P5+1 (the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China plus Germany) in futile negotiations that have never stood a chance of success.By asking the P5+1 to declare that the talks with Iran have failed, Netanyahu is alerting the U.S. that time is of the essence and challenging Obama to take more decisive actions against Iran. Netanyahu's rationale is that since Obama seeks to prevent an Israeli attack in an election year, he will be under immense pressure from his presidential rival, Mitt Romney, not only to adopt a final set of truly crippling sanctions but tobe clear about his willingness to use force against Iran before it reaches the point of no return or enters the zone of immunity.Netanyahu's message of alarm is directed against the EU, Turkey and China, which will be the most affected by the potential disruption of oil supplies should the Strait of Hormuz become imperiled. Netanyahu and Barak are convinced that the EU in particular is engaged in wishful thinking, believing that continuing diplomatic efforts coupled with stiffer sanctions will force the Mullahs to come to their senses. The EU clearly view Netanyahu as overzealous about Israel's national security, are extremely worried about an Israeli attack and are convinced that the repercussions will be catastrophic. Thus, for them, no attack should be contemplated as long as Iran is willing to continue to talk.Using the repeated Iranian existential threat against Israel, and while observing the Western powers' ineptitude in the past in dealing with the genocide in Bosnia, Sudan and now the wholesale slaughter in Syria, Netanyahu has little faith in what the EU can, or will, do to bring Iran to a halt. The EU, from Netanyahu's perspective, could have done a great deal more to cripple Iran economically but it still has yet to do so. At the same time, the EU refuses to declare Hezbollah, Iran's prime surrogate but Israel's staunchest enemy, as a terrorist organization while it continues to allow Hezbollah to freely raise tens of millions of dollars in Europe, when much of it is used for buying armaments to target Israel.The direct threat against Iran is based on Netanyahu and Barak's calculation that although public discussion about the potential attack on Iran provides Tehran more time to prepare for the worst, it will provide Israel with certain advantages. Fear of an imminent Israeli attack will force the Iranian authorities to take additional security measures to protect their nuclear facilities, which will reveal Iran's preparedness and capabilities, and expose its weaknesses and how much of its boastings of a damaging counter-attack against Israel are in fact accurate. Importantly, Israel will also be in a position to better assess the Iranian public's reaction and whether the rumors of an imminent attack will precipitate panic, which may reveal how the Iranian authorities react and pacify the public. More than anything, Israel wants Iran to take its threats seriously, which explains why Netanyahu and Barak openly stated that when it comes to Israel's national security, Israel must, in the final analysis, rely only on itself. Netanyahu's and Barak's exposé is also intended to warn all those who might think of coming to Iran's aid by engaging Israel on another front (in particular with groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas) that they should think twice before they dare to provoke Israel. By openly discussing their intentions, Netanyahu and Barak want these groups or states to assume that Israel would not have discussed such a sensitive national security matter had it not taken into full consideration their potential involvements. The message to Hezbollah is clear: there will not be a repeat of the 2006 war, Israel will break its back and that this time around no one will come to its aid considering Syria is in shambles and Iran is under intense economic pressure and too busy to deal with the potentially catastrophic effects of an Israeli attack.The other target of Israel's open discourse on attacking Iran is to test the Sunni Arabs, especially the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia. There have been ongoing tacit discussions between Israel and the Gulf States about the potential Israeli strike and how that might affect both their public reactions and their private interests and concerns. There is no doubt that all Sunni Arab states would prefer to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons peacefully. But after failing to do so by diplomatic means, they would support an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, whether the attack is carried out by Israel, the U.S. or through a joint effort. Saudi Arabia in particular sees the conflict between Shiites verses Sunnis in terms of regional domination with a focus on the Gulf, and views Iran with nuclear weapons as a nightmarish scenario that must be prevented at all costs. Finally, Netanyahu's and Barak's message was intended for the Israeli public not only to prepare them for a potential Iranian counter-attack but to begin psychological and logistical preparations ( including the distributions of gas masks, stocking underground shelters with food and water) to avoid public panic and rally the nation around the government's prospective actions. Although the Netanyahu government is not dismissive of the voices of the Israelis who consider a unilateral attack as ill-conceived and extremely risky, Netanyahu and Barak want to demonstrate unshakable resolve in the face of an existential threat and that the public can ultimately trust their judgment. Moreover, such an exercise, even if a strike is avoided either because of the United States or because of Netanyahu's/Barak's readiness to act, will be good for Israel and good for the entire region as long as Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.Israel has time and again stated in the past that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons or the technology to quickly assemble such arsenals. The Israelis insist that whatever repercussions arise from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities will be far less ominous than allowing Iran to obtain nuclear capabilities, which will have far more reaching geopolitical and security implications that will adversely affect every state in the region.In the final analysis, an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities may not come as soon as many predict. The strike can and may well happen but it is very unlikely that such an incredibly ominous undertaking will occur without a minimum of U.S. acquiescence, if not outright support and direct involvement. Regardless of how much Netanyahu and Barak may be sure of themselves and Israel's military capabilities, they cannot afford to make any mistakes or miscalculations because Israel's future is on the line.Yet, exactly because of that, no one should think for a moment that Israel is bluffing. Netanyahu and Barak have concluded that diplomacy has run its course and only extraordinary, crippling and immediate sanctions may still have a slim chance of success. Once Israel determines that Iran has either achieved the point of no return or is about to reach the zone of immunity and the U.S. is not prepared to take military action, Israel will attack Iran singlehandedly and no consequences of such an attack, from the Israeli perspective, will fare against such an existential threat.

China's scramble for patents

China's ambitious drive to produce millions of new patents in the next few years as part of a switch from a "made in China" to "designed in China" economic model will curtail innovation standards, a European study warned today.China is seeking to transform itself from being the world's factory floor into a global pioneer by setting ambitious state-mandated patent targets -- a goal that has already resulted in it surpassing the United States last year in patent filings.The European Union Chamber of Commerce said in a report that China filed more than 1.6 million patent applications in 2011, but only 32% met the highest threshold for patent quality - new inventions.The study noted that while China's innovation potential is "impressive", its actual innovation is "overhyped"."This explosion (of patent applications) has come with a price in terms of the quality and mix of patents. This is not in the right direction," European Chamber Secretary General Dirk Moens said.In some cases, financial incentives and performance evaluations for state-owned firms, officials and academics drive the filing of low-quality patents as they seek to meet quotas - 2 million annually by 2015 under one national plan.In addition to inventions, China also gives patents for designs and "utility models", incremental developments that can advance an existing product but rarely result in technological breakthroughs.The United States does not use utility model patents, though some developed countries, such as Germany, do.Sixty-five percent of patent applications filed by medium and large-sized Chinese state-owned enterprises in recent years have been for the lower end design or utility model patents, making them among the country's least effective innovators, the study said."One cannot drive or 'force' creativity, but only nurture it, whereas creativity leading to breakthroughs of the type that typically produce the highest quality patents at best comes in spurts," it said, noting that at least 20 countries have greater innovation potential than the world's second largest economy.But Elliot Papageorgiou, an intellectual property expert at Rouse Legal in Shanghai, said utility model patents are good for China."In developing economies, you're not going to get a new wheel, you're going to get an improved or cheaper wheel," Papageorgiou.Indigenous rules rile foreigners Experts say weak intellectual property rights (IPR) have scared off some foreign firms from transferring technology or filing patents in China. Last year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner lamented Beijing's lax controls that made possible the "systematic stealing" of American innovations.China has said it would drop some of its "indigenous innovation" rules that have riled foreign companies who say access to government equipment and technology orders hinge on their transferring patents and other intellectual property to Chinese firms or partners.But the EU Chamber study said indigenous intellectual property ownership was still a requirement for firms to access some Chinese government financing and subsidies, with the language writ large into many of the country's more than 10 national and 150 sub-national patents target plans."The essence of the IIP (indigenous innovation policy) system, in terms of setting forth controversial IPR requirements with financial incentives, appears very much still in force," the study said.

NEWS,28.07.2012

Olympics open with pageant for next generation

Queen Elizabeth declared the London Olympics open after playing a cameo role in a dizzying ceremony designed to highlight the grandeur and eccentricities of the nation that invented modern sport.Children's voices intertwining from the four corners of her United Kingdom ushered in an exuberant historical pageant of meadows, smokestacks and digital wizardry before an audience of 60,000 in the Olympic Stadium and a probable billion television viewers around the globe.Many of them gasped at the sight of the 86-year-old queen, marking her Diamond Jubilee this year, putting aside royal reserve in a video where she stepped onto a helicopter with James Bond actor Daniel Craig to be carried aloft from Buckingham Palace.A film clip showed doubles of her and Bond skydiving towards the stadium and, moments later, she made her entrance in person."In a sense, the Olympic Games are coming home tonight," IOC President Jacques Rogge told the crowd."This great, sports-loving country is widely recognised as the birthplace of modern sport."To underline the point, Bradley Wiggins, crowned five days earlier as Britain's first winner of the Tour de France and hoping to add more road cycling gold in London, tolled the world's largest tuned bell to begin the ceremony.In one moment of simple drama, the stadium fell silent as five giant, incandescent Olympic rings, symbolically forged from British steel mills, were lifted serenely out of the stadium by weather balloons, destined for the stratosphere.And at the climax of an evening that had children centre-stage, seven teenage athletes were given the honour of lighting the Olympic cauldron that will burn for the duration of the Games, in keeping with the theme of "Inspire a Generation".More than 10,000 athletes from 204 countries will compete in 26 sports over 17 days of competition in the only city to have staged the modern Games three times.Most of them were there for the traditional alphabetical parade of the national teams, not least the athletes from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen competing in their first Olympics since their peoples overthrew autocrats in Arab Spring revolutions.Brunei and Qatar were led in by their countries' first ever female Olympians and so, along with Saudi Arabia, ended their status as the only countries to exclude women from their teams.At a reception, the queen spelled out the role played by her family after the Olympics were revived in Athens in 1896."This will be the third London Olympiad. My great grandfather opened the 1908 Games at White City. My father opened the 1948 Games at Wembley Stadium. And, later this evening, I will take pleasure in declaring open the 2012 London Olympic Games at Stratford in the east of London," she said."Over recent months, many in these islands have watched with growing excitement the journey of the Olympic torch around the United Kingdom. As the torch has passed through villages and towns, it has drawn people together as families and communities."To me, this spirit of togetherness is a most important part of the Olympic ideal. And the British people can be proud of the part they have played in keeping the spirit alive."The opening show, costing an estimated 27 million pounds, was inspired by William Shakespeare's play The Tempest, his late-life meditation on age and mortality.But it was children who set the tone, starting from the moment when live pictures of junior choirs singing in the landscapes of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were beamed into the stadium's giant screens, four traditional songs woven together into a musical tapestry of Britain.Oscar-winning film director Danny Boyle began his sweep through British history by grassing over the arena in a depiction of the pastoral idyll mythologised by the romantic poet William Blake as "England's green and pleasant land".Idyll turned swiftly to inferno as the Industrial Revolution's "dark Satanic mills" burst from the ground, before those same mills forged the last of five giant Olympic rings that rose into the sky.At the end of a three-hour extravaganza, David Beckham, the English soccer icon who had helped convince the IOC to grant London the Games, stepped off a speedboat carrying the Olympic flame at the end of a torch relay that inspired many ordinary people around Britain.Past Olympic heroes including Muhammad Ali, who lit the cauldron at the 1996 Atlanta Games, and British rower Steve Redgrave, the only person to win gold at five successive games, welcomed the flame into the stadium.Yet it was not a celebrity but seven teenage athletes who lit a spectacular arrangement of over 200 copper 'petals' representing the participating countries, which rose up in the centre of the stadium to converge into a single cauldron.Moments later, a balloon-borne camera relayed live pictures of the earlier-released interlocked rings gliding through the stratosphere against the curved horizon of the planet below.The performance included surreal and often witty references to British achievements, especially in social reform and the arts, and ended with former Beatle Paul McCartney singing Hey Jude.Many sequences turned the entire stadium into a vast video screen made up of tens of thousands of "pixels" attached to the seats. One giant message, unveiled by Tim Berners-Lee, British inventor of the world wide web, read "This is for Everyone".Until the last few days, media coverage had been dominated by the security firm G4S's admission that it could not provide enough guards for Olympic venues. Thousands of extra soldiers had to be deployed at the last minute, despite the company's multi-million-dollar contract from the government.Suicide attacks that killed 52 people in London in July 2005, the day after it was awarded the Games, ensured that security would remain a worry. And this year the Games mark the 40th anniversary of the 1972 Munich massacre, when 11 Israeli Olympic team members were killed by Palestinian militants.Although no medals will be awarded until Saturday, the women's soccer tournament started on Wednesday, and on Friday South Korean archers set the first world records of the Games.Im Dong-hyun, who suffers from severe myopia and just aims at "a blob of yellow colour", broke his own 72-arrow world record with a score of 699 out of a possible 720, leading his two colleagues to a record combined score as well.The Games' first medals will be decided in the women's 10 metres air rifle final on Saturday, with the big action coming in the men's cycling road race, where world champion Mark Cavendish is favourite to become Britain's first gold medallist.In the evening, Americans Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte are scheduled to line up for a classic confrontation in the men's 400 metres individual medley final.Phelps, competing in seven events after winning a record eight gold medals four years ago in Beijing, is bidding to become the first swimmer to win gold in the same discipline three times in a row."This is going to be a special race," said Gregg Troy, head coach of the American men's team. "I can't imagine a better way to promote our sport than a race like this on the first day."

 

Iran expands oil tanker insurance

Iran is expanding its insurance on its fleet of 47 oil tankers through a multi-billion-dollar line of credit as it seeks to get around EU sanctions crimping its crude exports, reports said on Saturday."Iran is ready to give total insurance for the transport of its oil... and the commitments by Iranian insurers are no different from those by Western insurers and therefore all risks and dangers are insured," Iran's Opec representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, was quoted as saying by the state-run newspaper Iran.The Fars news agency cited an "informed source" it did not identify as saying that the government had given the central state insurance agency, Bimeh Markazi, a line of credit worth several billion dollars to insure the tankers. It said 10% of the money had already been transferred.The measure, apparently aimed at any buyer of Iranian crude worldwide, expands on a promise of insurance for deliveries of its oil using Iranian tankers to major customers China and India. South Korea is also mulling joining the offer.Iran is suffering a cut in oil sales abroad of up to 40%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), because of an EU embargo on Iranian crude imports and a related ban on European insurers providing cover for deliveries of Iranian oil anywhere in the world.European insurers accounted for 90% of coverage for Iran before the EU sanctions took effect on 1 July.Iran, which is striving to maintain a semblance of business as usual over its oil exports, is attempting to fill the insurance gap itself, but it faces several obstacles.US sanctions targeting Iranian financial transactions make it unclear how Iran could pay out any claims arising from accidents involving its tankers.Oil tankers are typically insured for up to $1bn because of the risk of oil spills.A European analyst in Tehran noted that the 40 tankers in Iran's fleet owned by the NITC, formerly known as the National Iranian Tanker Company, each had a long-distance capacity of up to two million barrels of oil.Iran, before the EU sanctions, exported around 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. The IEA estimates that has now been cut to around 1.5 million barrels per day.Several of the NITC vessels were being used in June to store Iranian offshore crude that Tehran has not been able to sell because of the sanctions, according to industry specialists.Iran has announced plans to quickly expand its onshore storage capacity, which has been saturated, including by subcontracting to private firms. Tehran has also ordered 12 new supertankers from China and should receive the first in December.

Pass tax proposal - Obama urges

US President Barack Obama urged Republicans in the House of Representatives on Saturday to pass his proposal calling for extending tax cuts for everybody but the richest Americans."Now it comes down to this," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address. "If 218 Members of the House vote the right way, 98% of American families and 97% of small business owners will have the certainty of knowing that their income taxes will not go up next year."On 1 January, a tax cut adopted under former president George W Bush and extended under Obama is set to expire. But Democrats and Republicans strongly disagree over how to extend it.While Obama favours higher taxes for the rich, Republicans argue it would undercut the nation's fragile economic recovery.This past week, the Democratic-controlled Senate passed a tax cut extension for American families earning less than $250 000 a year, but Republicans in the House are staunchly opposed to this bill, arguing that all Americans, including the wealthy ones, should benefit from the extension.The president noted that he fundamentally disagreed with those who believed that the best way to create prosperity in America was to let it trickle down from the top."I know they're wrong because we already tried it that way for most of the last decade. It didn't work," Obama said."We're still paying for trillions of dollars in tax cuts that benefited the wealthiest Americans more than anyone else; tax cuts that didn't lead to the middle class jobs or higher wages we were promised and that helped take us from record surpluses to record deficits."The president said the country could not afford more of top-down economics. He said America needed policies that would grow and strengthen the middle class, help create jobs and make education and training more affordable.