NEWS, 18.05.2012.

Greece and the Eurozone: What to Expect When You're Expecting the Unknowable

 

More out there today on the possibility of Greece leaving the Eurozone. The New York Times is a bit less pessimistic than the Washington Post, but if you're looking for something new to get nervous about, here you go. Better yet, I'll summarize: we don't know the outcome, but it will be ugly. Of course, it's already ugly, and that's worth remembering.In terms of global reverberations, investors from other countries have been pulling out of Greece for a while. Claims by foreign banks in Greece are now down to below $100 billion, compared to $600-700 billion in Spain and Italy. Of the country's $430 billion in outstanding public debt, well over half is owed to the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and other European institutions. The original worry -- that French and German banks might fail because of large holdings of Greek bonds that might not be repaid -- has been largely erased. Over the past two years those bonds have been sold or the losses on them absorbed when the debt write-down occurred this year.History also has favorable lessons of countries that decoupled from a currency peg and did a lot better than everyone expected, with Argentina the most recent example. After a period of indebtedness and IMF imposed austerity, they broke their dollar peg in 2002 and defaulted on their debt. Their economy suffered deeply for about a year, but the upside was they could now devalue their currency. That helped to set off a solid growth phase, as the Argentine economy grew over 8% per year over the next six years, employing human and physical capital that had been sitting idle during the austerity years. Sound familiar?But the risks here are great and, of course, go well beyond Greece. If global capital decides that bigger, more connected countries like Spain and Italy are next to leave the zone, it will be up to the European Central Bank and the Germans to support them, and Paul Krugman, for one, isn't optimistic.As I noted yesterday, any disaster scenario of what might happen has to take account of the current mess, with punishing levels of unemployment, grueling uncertainty re what tomorrow holds, and the seeds of deep social unrest. There's no happy ending from where we are, and the idea that the euro should be protected at all costs heavily discounts those costs.Which takes me back to my terse summary: we don't know how this bounces. It's good that exposures have been lessened, but over to big Ben (Bernanke) for the last word:"If there is a major financial problem in Europe," Mr. Bernanke told Congress in February, "there will be so many different channels on which that will affect our financial system that I would not want to take too much comfort from" the fact that the financial system has little direct exposure to Greece.

 

 

The Top Ten Myths of Modern China

 

The China hard landing drum is beating louder now than it was at the beginning of the year. Their call from an investment standpoint has been a lucrative one. But fundamentally and over the long haul, China's place as the world's No. 2 economic power is secure. In fact, China is likely to become the economic superpower within a generation. By most estimates from groups like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the U.S. within a decade or two at the latest. Their national per capita income will double, putting once poor, dollar a day China on par with Western nations when it comes to aggregate middle class purchasing power.

China will not implode. Its road to superpower status will be bumpy, even rocky in parts, but the fundamentals of sustained macroeconomic expansion are in place and, for the large part, enduring.

Here are 10 popular misconceptions about China:

Myth No. 1: Popular anger means the party's power is weakening

The communist party, despite its heavy hand, has street cred. Unless growth collapses, citizens will grudgingly support national leaders. The Chinese people crave order. Stability is the platform on which progress will continually be built. In the future, a more Singaporian model may take hold but one thing is certain, the future of China's political system will not be made in America...or Europe.

Myth No. 2: American-style individualism is taking root

China's pop culture is booming and within it sits an array of counter-culture stars and trends, from tattoo parlors to non-conformist lyrics of singers like Jay Chou. But that doesn't mean Chinese society is embracing American individualism. Self expression is not equal to independence of thought. Unlike American society, Chinese society never celebrated the liberation of individual potential. The basic productive unit of society remains the clan, not the individual. The pursuit of happiness is an adolescent fantasy, best forsaken by the time the pressure of marriage, mortgage, mother-in-law, and auto ownership come into play.

Myth No. 3: Contemporary Chinese have no beliefs

Chinese society is not in the throes of an existential crisis. Instead, it is on the threshold of reclaiming values that have always set it apart. The Cultural Revolution did not purge traditional values of the sanctity of family and nation; societal harmony is still a noble goal; anti-individualism is still pervasive; fulfillment of mandate still defines success rather than self-actualization. A new generation will redefine China and is slowly achieving harmony between timeless and "new" China. 

Myth No. 4: The internet will revolutionize China

The internet is changing China and mostly for the good, but revolution is too strong a word. China's digital era remains uniquely Chinese. Beijing allows for a blank canvas of self expression and material gratification, but retains the veto power to control public discourse as it did when it threatened to shut down the Sina Weibo microblogging service over theories about the political dramas surrounding politician Bo Xilai and later with Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng. Internet users may grumble, but they're not ready to rumble.

Myth No. 5: The Chinese market is too much like Europe

China is as unified a country as is the U.S., despite its wide geographical and political differences. The challenges of unifying distribution networks, sales channels, retail presence and sourcing standards remain monumental. But it is operational hurdles that make China a Balkanized economy, not cultural or political differences.

Myth No. 6: The Chinese consumer is inscrutable

Women want to reconcile achievement and traditional feminine grace and therefore prefer to buy diamonds that sparkle, but don't have too much bling. Men want to show they've clawed their way to the top without showing off so prefer an Audi or BMW to a Maserati. Once foreigners appreciate China's unique characteristics, their tastes become easier to understand.

Myth No. 7: The Chinese growth model is in danger

In the short-term, China's economy is not crash landing. In the long term, the current model still has legs. Both the government and the people know real reforms are needed. Yet, reforms have barely just begun, impeded by left wing dogmatic fears of upsetting a middle class whose tax bills would have to rise to fund restructuring and wealth distribution to rural areas. But the world should not underestimate the technocratic savvy of Beijing. When reform does come for all to see, it would have come microscopically incremental, and therefore barely noticeable to outsiders.

Myth No. 8: China Inc. will kill U.S. jobs

It will be decades before Chinese corporations -- even in strategic industries like renewable energy and information technologies -- beat American companies on their own home turf. It might not even happen at all. China is a closed society and so are its corporations. The country lacks the dynamism needed to stimulate new ideas and the collaboration required to monetize them.

Myth No. 9: China will be the lone world superpower

China does not inspire hearts and minds like America does. American dignity for the common good touches hearts. China is chauvinistic by comparison. In ways large and small, its instinct to narrowly defend its self interest is off putting and isolating. China will be an economic power, but not a culture or political power. There will be more than one tiger on this mountain, and the other will be the good ole U.S. of A.

Myth No. 10: China is militarily aggressive

China is ramping up its military, but will never use it to challenge the U.S. or invade its neighbors. For a credible analysis of China's modern fighting force, scour Pentagon briefs. But to get a sense of Beijing's pacifist instincts, come for a visit. The Chinese shield themselves from danger, both real and imagined. This is not a culture itching for war.