Monday, May 21, 2012

NEWS, 21.05.2012.

Markets regain ground

 

Markets recovered some ground on Monday on value hunting after last week's heavy losses, but investors remained wary over the eurozone despite world leaders calling for Greece to stay in the monetary union and for Europe to balance austerity with growth. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, buoyed by its technology sector which by far outperformed its peers with a 1.3% gain. Investors scooped cheapened blue chips, helping to lift tech-heavy Korean equity market above a key chart level. The pan-Asian index fell to a 2012 low on Friday, having lost about 6% in the week for its worst weekly performance in nearly eight months. European shares were likely to be even more cautiously traded than Asia, with financial spreadbetters predicting that major European markets would open down as much as 1%. US stock futures were up 0.5%, reflecting a lack of market direction. "Investors saw some attractive valuations in the big tech stocks, which was the most heavily-hit sector during last week's market plunge, but that's about as much additional risk that investors are willing to take on at this point," said Park Suk-hyun, an analyst at KTB Securities. Japan's Nikkei stock average gained 0.4%, after logging a seventh straight week of losses last week, its longest such losing streak since the third quarter of 2011. Leaders of G8 major industrialised nations meeting at the weekend vowed to take steps to combat financial turmoil and revitalise a global economy threatened by Europe's debt crisis, but they offered no specific prescription for debt-crippled Greece which holds fresh elections on June 17. "Today's move is merely a rebound from sharp losses on Friday and it doesn't have momentum to rise strongly. The G8 outcome lacked the punch to give much incentive for markets," said Hirokazu Yuihama, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo. Currently, many market players see the main scenario as Greece staying in the euro and European leaders making some compromises to maintain financial lifelines for the country. But deepening banking sector instability in Spain heightened concerns about contagion from Greek political turmoil, keeping investors' risk-aversion intact at least until the Greek election makes clear whether the nation will stay or leave the euro, traders and analysts said. "There's a lot of talk and no substance. Until you get some certainty about Greece and the fear of contagion eases, the volatility is here to stay," said Savanth Sebastian, an economist at CommSec. Growth and fiscal austerity The euro inched up 0.1% to $1.2793, moving away from a four-month low of $1.2642 reached on Friday, which was not far from its trough of 2012. But investor nervousness prevented the yen, widely perceived as a safe haven, to ease significantly from its three-month high against the dollar of ¥79.001 hit on Friday. The yen stood at ¥79.18 on Monday. With a steadying euro, spot gold added 0.4% to $1 598.46 an ounce, after rising more than 1% on Friday. The G8 suggested mounting global support for highly indebted eurozone economies to be allowed to take less strict austerity measures and put more priority on stimulating growth. Reports also suggested Greece's anti-austerity forces could soften their stance to avoid a catastrophic outcome for the nation. Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole Bank in Tokyo, said the G8 comments were positive, but it did not offer a buying incentive for the euro. Rather, he was eyeing whether the yen would breach its 200-day moving average, currently at ¥78.50, and trigger the yen's further climb. Saito said markets were turning to an upcoming European summit on May 23 and comments about the Greece election. The May 23 summit will focus attention on whether European leaders can strike a new balance between growth and the fiscal reforms deemed vital to fixing the eurozone's debt crisis and regaining market confidence in the single currency. Recent opinion polls show Greek voters are returning to the establishment parties that negotiated its bailout, offering potential salvation for European leaders. Alexis Tsipras, the Greek leftist who polled strongly in the inconclusive May 6 election, says he wants talks to keep Greece in the euro. He is looking to forge ties with likeminded European figures such as French President Francois Hollande. Oil prices recovered on Monday, with US crude up 0.5% at $91.90 a barrel, after falling more than 1% on Friday. Brent crude, which closed at its lowest in 2012 on Friday, rose 0.7% at $107.89 a barrel. China's premier called for additional efforts to support growth on Sunday, raising hopes for more stimulus steps to lift demand in the world's second largest economy. He also vowed to maintain his campaign to cool down its property market."Fear index" rising As risk aversion intensified on Friday, the CBOE VIX Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety that measures expected volatility in the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the next 30 days, rose 2.5% to close above 25 for the first time since mid-December. Asian credit markets stabilised on Monday on short covering after the G8 meeting, but underlying sentiment was defensive, traders said. The spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index was little changed from Friday, when it reached its widest level since early January.

 

France's Hollande steals show in début

 

In his début in international summitry, Francois Hollande has made a splash - and held his ground on some sharply defined positions.France's new leader grabbed attention at both the weekend's Group of Eight summit in Camp David and at the Nato summit in Chicago ending on Monday, parleying his mandate from voters in a May 6 election and showing he has his finger on the pulse of the public back home.An informal European Union summit on Wednesday will cap his whirlwind first week as French president.Hollande first sped to Berlin to meet Germany's chancellor, he then painstakingly formed a Socialist-led French Cabinet. He jetted to Washington, where he mused about his cheeseburger fetish in an Oval Office get-to-know with President Barack Obama that helped replace memories of Hollande's America-friendly predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.Hollande held firm on his two trenchant positions at the summits: His call for pro-growth measures to juice up Europe's lagging economy overshadowed the G-8 meeting, and his promise to break with Nato by pulling French troops out of Afghanistan ahead of other alliance members weighed heavily on the summit in Chicago."There was no embarrassing moment for him, despite the fact that he came right out of the election," said Dominique Moisi, a political analyst with the French Institute of International Relations, IFRI. "The difficulty starts when he comes home... but we all know there won't be any miracles."So far, it's mostly been style over substance. Hollande offered few details about how he would put his plans into practice.The Socialist French president fills a seat that was occupied by Sarkozy, who was often dubbed "Sarko the American" and whose support for a hard line in Iran and Nato's intervention in Libya drew plaudits from US leaders - including Obama. But at home, Sarkozy's brash, in-your-face demeanour in part led to his fall from grace at the ballot box.CharmingSo far, Hollande has ushered in a more inclusive style as French president, and the charm offensive has borne fruit. The timing of the summits also played in his favour: Obama, whose re-election hopes hinge in large part on the American economy's prospects, echoed Hollande's call for pro-growth policies at Camp David on Friday and Saturday.That gave Hollande some momentum going into the Nato summit, where some allies frowned on his early-pullout promises both privately and publicly.Post-electoral honeymoons don't last forever. Much of the questioning that Hollande faced by his trailing press corps centred on his persona, such as his travels in America in 1974 to study a nascent fast food phenomenon and his rapport with other world leaders. Obama playfully teased him for wearing a tie to the casual-dress summit in the Camp David woods and called Hollande his "translator" for French journalists.When one reporter at a French press scrum outside Hollande's Chicago hotel on Monday asked the president if he felt "American," Hollande replied that "I don't know how to take the compliment, if that is one"."But I try to be a Frenchman, who discusses with the Americans - in the hope of making them understand that we have common interests," he said. "I don't try to play the American, and I don't need to play the Frenchman: Be myself."It was aw-shucks charm like that that helped put Hollande, a national lawmaker from rural central France, into the presidential Elysée Palace. Hollande made his name nationally for his quick-witted criticism against a string of conservative governments in France over the last decade, while leader of the Socialist Party.ArticulateAs president, he's morphing from critic to cheerleader. At the summits he subtly claimed credit for France putting on the agenda such ideas as growth, European-supported recapitalisation of ailing Spanish banks or eurobonds to help revive Europe's finances. But he's maintained his sober mindset about Europe's big economic problems.But his personal international rapports are being tested. For all their seeming comity in Berlin last week, Hollande and Chancellor Angela Merkel have lined up against one another politically on both Afghanistan and their prescriptions for European economic health. She champions austerity, he wants pro-growth policies; in Chicago, she reiterated her "in together, out together" mantra for Nato's Afghan mission.Hollande came to the US summits a virtual unknown and benefiting from relatively low expectations. He had first-time introductions to Obama, Merkel, prime ministers Dimitri Medvedev of Russia and Britain's David Cameron all this week. An aide to one of the other G-8 summit attendees, who declined to be identified so as to speak freely about inside details, said that Hollande came across as firm, articulate, and knowledgeable about the agenda items."So far, so good," the political analyst, Moisi, said of Hollande's début on the world stage. "I think what he had to prove was that he was a credible president of France. People had thought that he wasn't: Not just 'Mr Normal'" - an image Hollande campaigned on - "but banal."

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