NEWS,17.11.2012

Israel Widens Airstrike Assault In Gaza

 

Israel bombarded the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip with about 300 airstrikes Saturday and shot down a Palestinian rocket fired at Tel Aviv, the military said, widening a blistering assault to include the Hamas prime minister's headquarters, a police compound and a vast network of smuggling tunnels.The intensified airstrikes came as Egyptian-led attempts to broker a cease-fire and end Israel's four-day-old Gaza offensive gained momentum. The leaders of Hamas and two key allies, Qatar and Turkey, were in Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials, and the Arab League was holding an emergency meeting.The White House said President Barack Obama was also in touch with the Egyptian and Turkish leaders. The U.S. has solidly backed Israel so far.Speaking on Air Force One, deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said that the White House believes Israel "has the right to defend itself" against attack and that the Israelis will make their own decisions about their "military tactics and operations."The Israeli attacks, which Gaza officials say left 12 dead, came as Palestinian militants fired more than 100 rockets toward Israel, including two aimed at the commercial and cultural center of Tel Aviv. Rocket attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem this week mark the first time Gaza militants have managed to fire rockets toward the cities, raising the stakes in the confrontation.The widened scope of targets brings the scale of fighting closer to that of the war the two groups waged four years ago. Hamas was badly bruised during that conflict, but has since restocked its arsenal with more and better weapons, and has been under pressure from smaller, more militant groups to prove its commitment to fighting Israel.In a psychological boost for the Israelis, a sophisticated Israeli rocket-defense system known as "Iron Dome" knocked down one of the rockets headed toward Tel Aviv, eliciting cheers from relieved residents huddled in fear after air raid sirens sounded in the city.Associated Press video showed a plume of smoke rising from a rocket-defense battery deployed near the city, followed by a burst of light overhead. The smoke trailed the intercepting missile.Police said a second rocket also targeted Tel Aviv. It was not clear where it landed or whether it was shot down. No injuries were reported. It was the third straight day the city was targeted.Israel says the Iron Dome system has shot down some 250 incoming rockets, most of them in southern Israel near Gaza.Saturday's interception was the first time Iron Dome has been deployed in Tel Aviv. The battery was a new upgraded version that was only activated on Saturday, two months ahead of schedule, officials said.Israel opened the offensive on Wednesday with a surprising airstrike that killed Hamas' military chief, then attacked dozens of rocket launchers and storage sites. It says the offensive is meant to halt months of rocket fire on southern Israel.While Israel claims to be inflicting heavy damage on Gaza's Hamas rulers, it has failed to slow the rocket fire. In all, 42 Palestinians, including 13 civilians, have been killed, while three Israeli civilians have died.Maj. Gen. Tal Russo, Israel's southern commander, said Saturday that Hamas had suffered a tough blow."Most of their capabilities have been destroyed," he told reporters. Asked whether Israel is ready to send ground troops into Gaza, he said: "Absolutely."Israel has authorized the call-up of as many as 75,000 reservists ahead of a possible ground operation. Dozens of armoured vehicles have massed along the border with Gaza in recent days.Israeli officials say they have not yet decided whether to send in ground troops, a decision that would almost certainly lead to heavy casualties on both sides.In Saturday's fighting, Israeli aircraft pounded militants' weapons storage facilities and underground rocket launching sites, and went after rocket squads more aggressively.Militants, undaunted, have unleashed some 500 rockets against the Jewish state.Hamas claims that Israeli intelligence is based on a network of collaborators in Gaza. Officials said two Palestinians have been executed by Hamas' military wing for allegedly providing Israel with sensitive information. One man was shot twice in the head. Another body was tossed into a garbage bin with a gunshot wound to the head.The violence has threatened the Mideast with a new war. At the same time, revolts against entrenched regional regimes have opened up new possibilities for Hamas. Islamists across the Mideast have been strengthened, bringing newfound recognition to Hamas, which had previously been shunned by the international community because of its refusal to recognize Israel and renounce violence.A high-level Tunisian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem, drove that point home with a visit to Gaza on Saturday. The foreign minister's first stop was the still-smoldering ruins of the three-story office building of Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas."Israel has to understand that there is an international law and it has to respect the international law to stop the aggression against the Palestinian people," Abdessalem told the AP during a tour of Gaza's main hospital. He said his country was doing whatever it can to promote a cease-fire, but did not elaborate.It was the first official Tunisian visit since Hamas's violent 2007 takeover of the territory. The West Bank is governed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Egypt's prime minister visited Gaza on Friday and a Moroccan delegation was due on Sunday, following a landmark visit by Qatar's leader last month.Israel had been incrementally expanding its operation beyond military targets but before dawn on Saturday it ramped that up dramatically, hitting Hamas symbols of power.Israeli defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential decisions, said military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz personally ordered the scope of the airstrikes to be increased.Haniyeh's three-story office building was flattened by an airstrike that blew out windows in neighboring homes. He was not inside the building at the time.Another airstrike brought down the three-story home of a Hamas commander in the Jebaliya refugee camp near Gaza City, critically wounding him and injuring other residents of the building, medics said.Missiles smashed into two small security facilities and the massive Hamas police headquarters in Gaza City, setting off a huge blaze that engulfed nearby houses and civilian cars parked outside, the Interior Ministry reported. No one was inside the buildings.The Interior Ministry said a government compound was also hit while devout Muslims streamed to the area for early morning prayers, although no casualties were reported.Air attacks knocked out five electricity transformers, cutting off power to more than 400,000 people in southern Gaza, according to the Gaza electricity distribution company. People switched on backup generators for limited electrical supplies.In southern Gaza, aircraft went after underground tunnels militants use to smuggle in weapons and other contraband from Egypt, residents reported. A huge explosion in the area sent buildings shuddering in the Egyptian city of El-Arish, 45 kilometers (30 miles) away, an Associated Press correspondent there reported.The Israeli military said more than 950 targets have been struck since the operation began.On Saturday, more than 120 rockets slammed into Israel, causing damage to houses. About 10 Israelis were injured lightly, among dozens of others wounded since the start of the operation.Despite the violence, Egyptian-led diplomacy was underway to bring an end to the fighting.Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was meeting the leaders of Turkey and Qatar Saturday as well as Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to discuss details of a proposed cease-fire.The Arab League also met Saturday to consider sending its chief Nabil Elaraby and a team of foreign ministers to Gaza in the coming two days to assess the situation and respond to humanitarian needs there, according to a draft memorandum obtained by the AP.Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters Saturday that during discussions with Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin late Friday, he suggested that Turkey, Egypt, the United States and Russia help broker a simultaneous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas."It would be good if we could work on it rapidly to solve the matter within 24 hours, because the death toll is mounting," he said.

Israel-Gaza Conflict Analysis: A Clash Waiting To Happen

 

Since Israel completed a devastating military offensive in the Gaza Strip four years ago, military officials have warned it was only a matter of time before the next round of fighting. Violence erupted this week with little warning, driven by Hamas' ambitions to make its mark on a changing Middle East and an Israeli government reacting to public outcry over rocket attacks just weeks ahead of national elections.It is a clash of wills driven by wildly contradictory narratives nurtured over the years by two deeply antagonistic societies with little in common save a deep-seated sense of historical grievance and victimization.From Israel's perspective, the fact that it withdrew from Gaza in 2005, pulling out all soldiers and settlements after a 38-year occupation, should have been the end of its troubles with the 1.6 million Palestinians there. The continued rocket attacks especially since Hamas militants seized the coastal strip from the more moderate Fatah faction in 2006 are seen as an outrage that justifies extreme measures. No country, Israelis argue, could possibly be asked to tolerate a decade of rocket attacks.That view aligns with a deeper historical grievance: Israelis feel their Zionist movement was fundamentally a return home from two millennia of exile but that it was met from the beginning by Arab rejection and violence. The Holocaust, the World War II slaughter of 6 million Jews by the Nazis even as Jews were building their state-in-waiting, further fed the sense of victimization accompanied by a distrust of the world and an obsession with self-reliance.Hamas, on the other hand, rejects any Jewish connection to the Holy Land and views Israel as a colonial outpost in the heart of the Islamic world that must be destroyed. And among Palestinians, the Gazans' specific sense of victimization stems most directly from the miserable living conditions in a crowded, besieged and impoverished coastal strip a few miles wide. Israel's soldiers and settlers may be gone, but Israel continues to seal off its border with Gaza, blockades its seacoast for fear of weapons imports, and controls the airspace and that, they reason, means that Gaza remains "occupied" and therefore "resistance" retains legitimacy.That narrative aligns with a seething hatred of Israel fed by the fact that roughly three-quarters of the strip's population are refugees or descendants of refugees who lost their homes in what became Israel in 1948. For many, the current predicament is one chapter in a long story that will end with the restoration of historical Palestine to Arab and Muslim control.In that context, the current historical moment takes on particular potential for instability and escalation.The Arab Spring has opened up many new possibilities for Hamas, which has long been shunned by the international community. The changes in the region have strengthened Islamists across the Middle East, bringing Hamas newfound recognition. Last month's visit by Qatar's emir and Friday's solidarity mission by the prime minister of Egypt's new Islamist government illustrated the growing acceptance of Hamas."I say on behalf of the Egyptian people that Egypt today is different than Egypt yesterday and the Arabs today are different that the Arabs of yesterday," Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a member of Hamas' parent movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, said Friday. "I say with all confidence Egypt will not leave Gaza on its own."Such words were hardly imaginable under ousted President Hosni Mubarak, who leaned to the West and whose officials over the years were much engaged in evenhanded mediation between Israel and various Palestinian factions.But Hamas has paid a price in public opinion, especially among its religious and conservative base. The organization rose to power as an armed resistance group, and is considered by not only Israel but also the United States as a terrorist organization. Many in Gaza, ranging from longtime supporters to more radical al-Qaida-influenced groups, have accused it of going soft. Recent attacks on Israel, and this week's confrontation, are meant in part to re-establish Hamas' militant credentials.For Israel, the offensive in Gaza has been brewing for months. After dealing Hamas a heavy blow in an offensive four years ago, Israeli intelligence has carefully watched the group recover and restock its arsenal with more powerful weapons and longer-range rockets. Rocket fire has steadily increased over the past two years, with more than 1,000 launched at Israel this year alone, according to the military. A pair of incidents last week marked a significant escalation in Israel's view. First, Hamas militants blew up a tunnel along the Israeli border in an attempt to attack Israeli troops. Then, Hamas fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli jeep, seriously wounding four soldiers.Israel's unhappiness with Hamas' surging confidence was evident in comments by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. "Hamas mistakenly thought that because of the change in government in Egypt and the election here that we will not respond properly," he said.As rocket fire heated up early this week, there were an increasing number of calls by the Israeli public for a response by the government, which is up for re-election on Jan. 22.Might Israel have decided to escalate or allow itself to be easily provoked – with electoral calculations in mind? Israeli officials dismiss such suggestions, and the army says the objective is solely to halt the rocket fire.Still, historical precedent certainly seems to be there:In June 1981, weeks before a vote he seemed set to lose, Prime Minister Menachem Begin ordered the air force to destroy Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak in faraway Iraq. The strike was successful, Begin won the election by a whisker, and as a bonus the world even came to appreciate the elimination of Saddam's potential nuclear weapons.Fifteen years later the man Begin defeated, Shimon Peres, found himself as caretaker prime minister and saddled with a electorally inconvenient reputation as an overzealous advocate for peace. First, Peres ordered the killing of Hamas' key bombmaker, leading to a series of ferocious revenge bombings that badly sapped his support. And in April 1996, two months before the vote, he ordered a massive air campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon which many considered to be at least partly politically driven. The campaign ended with Hezbollah still in place and Israel halting the operation ignobly after mistakenly killing dozens in a U.N. compound. Peres lost by a whisker.Four years ago the man who defeated Peres then, Benjamin Netanyahu, was staging a comeback after a few years out of office, and surging in the polls. The government of Ehud Olmert, far more moderate than Netanyahu, ordered an operation against Hamas.The reason will be familiar to anyone watching the news today: Israeli public opinion was fed up with rockets from Gaza.

 

The Gaza Fighting: On Strategy and Politics

While the fighting is raging in Gaza and southern and central Israel, it is also in Tehran and Beirut where there are many sleepless military and strategic planners who watch the situation with keen interest and most likely with a growing sense of concern. This is so because the fighting is having implications which are clearly stretching beyond the immediate arena of hostilities.The first operation of the Israeli Air Force was to destroy the medium range Fajr 5 ("dawn" in Arabic) missiles which were supplied to Hamas by Iran in order to serve as a deterrence against an Israeli attack on Gaza, but much more significantly, to be used if and when Israel and/or the U.S. were to attack the Iranian nuclear program. By the IDF accounts, most of these missiles were destroyed, and very few were left, the ones that are being fired now at Tel Aviv.If the IDF account is right, people in Tehran and Beirut can be worried. This is because the Fajrs may have been sacrificed on the wrong cause and prematurely, so far as Iran and the Hezbollah are concerned. They know that it will be next to impossible to rearm Hamas, bearing in mind the reports about the effective aerial activity over Sudan, allegedly by Israel, which seems to have cut off the main Iranian supply route to Hamas. The precision of the intelligence used to destroy the Fajr shelters and the technology used, combined with the ability to effectively act in Sudan, which is further away from Israel than Iran, may all lead to some hectic and urgent discussions in Tehran and Beirut. Hezbollah in Lebanon is making all the expected noises but is not showing, not as yet, at least, any signs of an appetite to be dragged into the fighting. In this case, they and their Iranian masters know better than to put at risk their second strike capacity at the wrong time and in the wrong arena.So, Hamas is pretty much left to its own devices, getting verbal, medical and political support from the Muslim Brotherhood president and government of Egypt, but it is very unlikely that this show of solidarity will evolve into a full-scale military engagement. That is a very distant scenario. Yet the Egyptians do hold a card, that if used properly and prudently by them, could be effective in deterring a large Israeli ground operation, and this is the threat of complete rupture of diplomatic relations with Israel, not just the anticipated, ritualistic recall of the Ambassador from Tel Aviv. PM Netanyahu's government is clearly interested in preventing a complete rupture, something that may cause worry and consternation in the Israeli public.Jordan to the east, is watching the events today, of all days, with trepidation, to be expected in view of the bloody riots which took place there in the last few days, and the likely possibility that the Friday prayers in the mosques will be the flashpoint for a major, out-of-control eruption, fueled by the fighting. It is worth noting that until now, the riots took place in Jordanian-populated towns, rather than among the Palestinians. All hell will break loose if they spread over to these areas.Surely, also Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority is watching the situation with growing sense of alarm. Abbas' control of the situation until now surely adds good points to his resume. This is a point to be taken and considered seriously by PM Netanyahu, and this is where politics and strategy converge.Netanyahu is currently riding high in Israel, not uncommon in the early days of any round of fighting. Some leftists are demonstrating, but the election campaign is at a total standstill, not bad for a sitting and challenged PM. Potential rivals of Netanyahu are suspending an announcement about joining the campaign against him, and may very well abandon their plans altogether. Again, good news for the PM. More good news comes from world leaders, primarily President Obama, President Hollande and PM Cameron, who give strong backing to the Israeli right of self defense. That coupled with Abbas' low profile enables Netanyahu's people to cry "we told you so," in response to concerns voiced, also in this blog, about Israel's international standing, particularly the sour relationships between Netanyahu and Obama.Well, the real test of these relationships is still awaiting. It will be about Iran, and yes, also about the currently moribund peace process with the Palestinian Authority. PM Netanyahu, most likely to remain in this office also after January 22nd (Israel's elections), will still be required to show meaningful readiness to reactivate this process. If at all, Abbas' handling of the current situation will add pressure on Israel, rather than not.And back to Gaza, a ground operation may seem inevitable, but will be fraught with unexpected risks and potential negative unintended consequences, not only with regard to Israel's foreign relations, but also in view of the election campaign. PM Netanyahu is definitely going to have a very tense weekend.