Showing posts with label Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Show all posts

Friday, February 8, 2013

NEWS,08.02.2013



Northeast Blizzard Warnings Posted As Region Braces For Up To Several Feet Of Snow


Snow began falling across the Northeast on Friday, ushering in what was predicted to be a huge, possibly historic blizzard and sending residents scurrying to stock up on food and gas up their cars. The storm could dump 1 to 3 feet of snow from New York City to Boston and beyond.Even before the first snowflake had fallen, Boston, Providence, R.I., Hartford, Conn., and other towns and cities in New England and upstate New York towns canceled school Friday, and airlines scratched more than 3,700 flights through Saturday, with the disruptions certain to ripple across the U.S."This one doesn't come along every day. This is going to be a dangerous winter storm," said Alan Dunham, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Taunton, Mass. "Wherever you need to get to, get there by Friday afternoon and don't plan on leaving."The heaviest snowfall was expected Friday night and into Saturday. Wind gusts could reach 75 mph. Widespread power failures were feared, along with flooding in coastal areas still recovering from Superstorm Sandy in October.Boston could get 2 to 3 feet of snow, while New York City was expecting 10 to 14 inches. Mayor Michael Bloomberg said plows and 250,000 tons of salt were being put on standby. To the south, Philadelphia was looking at a possible 2 to 5 inches.Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick banned all traffic from roads after 4 p.m., believed to be the state's first such ban since the blizzard of 1978.In the southeastern Massachusetts town of Whitman, where up to 2 1/2 feet of snow was forecast, public works crews were clearing crosswalk signs, trash barrels and anything else that might impede plows later in the day."We've had instances where they have predicted something big and it's petered out," said Dennis Smith, a public works employee. "I don't think this is going to be one of those times."Smith's partner, Bob Trumbull, sounded a note of optimism, saying the relative lack of snow earlier this winter would make this storm easier to clean up. "At least there is room for this snow. There are no snowbanks so we will have a place to put it," Trumbull said.Snow was being blamed for a 19-car pileup in Maine Friday morning in Cumberland, as 6 inches blanketed the area.A New Jersey town hit hard by Superstorm Sandy issued a voluntary evacuation order for areas that are still recovering from that storm. Residents in flood-prone sections of Brick Township were also urged to move their cars to higher ground by 5 p.m.Amtrak suspended train service between New York and Boston in the afternoon.The organizers of New York's Fashion Week a closely watched series of fashion shows held under a big tent said they will have extra crews to help with snow removal and will turn up the heat and add an extra layer to the venue.Airlines canceled at least 3,775 flights ahead of the storm, according to airline tracking website FlightAware. At New York City's three main airports, most U.S. airlines planned to suspend operations between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., resuming after noon on Saturday, FlightAware said. At Boston's Logan and other New England airports, most airlines were to cease operations between noon and 4 p.m.This is a storm of major proportions," Boston Mayor Thomas Menino said Friday. "Stay off the roads. Stay home."Blizzard warnings were posted for parts of New Jersey and New York's Long Island, as well as portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, including Hartford, New Haven, Conn., and Providence. The warnings extended into New Hampshire and Maine.In New England, it could prove to be among the top 10 snowstorms in history, and perhaps even break Boston's record of 27.6 inches, set in 2003, the National Weather Service said. The last major snowfall in southern New England was well over a year ago the Halloween storm of 2011.Dunham said southern New England has seen less than half its normal snowfall this season, but "we're going to catch up in a heck of a hurry." He added: "Everybody's going to get plastered with snow."Some gas stations in Connecticut ran out of fuel Thursday night during the rush to prepare for the storm. Long lines were reported at many stations.At Stop & Shop supermarket in Mount Vernon, N.Y., on Friday morning, there was a line of shoppers outside when it opened at 7 a.m., and a steady stream followed. Checkout lines were long.Mary Anne DiBello was stocking up her cart as the snow began to fall. She said she hosted a sleepover Thursday night with four 9- and 10-year-olds, including her daughter."Now I think I'm going to be stuck with them until I bring them to school on Monday," she said.The governors of Connecticut and Massachusetts ordered nonessential state workers to stay home Friday and urged travelers to stay home.

Renewed tension between China, Japan


China and Japan engaged on Friday in a fresh round of invective over military movements near a disputed group of uninhabited islands, fuelling tensions that for months have bedevilled relations between the two major Asian powers. China's defence ministry rejected a Japanese allegation that a naval vessel had aimed a weapons-targeting radar at a Japanese military ship in the East China Sea, its first comment on the week-old incident. It said Japan's intrusive tracking of Chinese vessels was the "root cause" of the renewed tension.A Japanese official on Friday dismissed the Chinese explanation for the 30 January incident. He said Beijing's actions could precipitate a dangerous situation in waters around the islets, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan, believed to be rich in oil and gas.His comments came a day after Japan said two Russian fighter jets briefly entered its air space near other, long-disputed islands, prompting Japan to scramble combat fighters. Russia denied the charge.China's defence ministry, in a statement issued late on Thursday, said Japan's remarks "do not match the facts". The Chinese ship's radar, it said, had maintained regular alerting operations and "did not use fire control radar". The ministry said the Chinese ship was tracked by a Japanese destroyer during routine training exercises. Fire control radar pinpoints the location of a target for missiles or shells and its use can be considered a step short of actual firing.Japan, it said, had recently "made irresponsible remarks that hyped up the so-called 'China threat', recklessly created tension and misled international public opinion."... In recent years, Japanese warships and aeroplanes have often conducted long periods of close-range tracking and surveillance of China's naval ships and aeroplanes. This is the root cause of air and maritime security issues between China and Japan."In Tokyo, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Sugatold a news conference on Friday: "We cannot accept China's explanation."Japan's allegations, he said, had been "a result of our defence ministry's careful and detailed analysis. We urge China to take sincere measures to prevent dangerous actions which could cause a contingency situation."Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said this week that the incident could have become very dangerous very quickly, and that use of the radar could be seen as a threat of military force under UN rules.Hopes have been rising in recent weeks for a thaw in ties after months of tension, sparked, in part, by Japan's nationalisation of three of the privately owned islets last September.Fears that encounters between aircraft and ships could degenerate into an accidental clash have given impetus to efforts to improve links, including a possible summit between Abe and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who takes over as head of state in March.

The Role of Psychological Resistance


The most puzzling aspect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that after 65 years of mutual violence, enmity and suffering, it remains unresolved even when coexistence is inevitable and a two-state solution remains the only viable option. Although there are many contentious issues that must be specifically addressed, it is the psychological dimension of the conflict which directly impacts every conflicting issue and makes it increasingly intractable. To mitigate the conflict, we must first look into the elements that inform the psychological dimension and how to alleviate them as prerequisites to finding a solution. This is the first of six articles.On the surface, the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process seems illogical and unsettling. After all, a majority of Israelis and Palestinians realize the inevitability of coexistence and presumably understand the general parameters of a negotiated peace agreement: a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with some land swaps, Jerusalem would remain a united city (but a capital of two states), and the vast majority of Palestinian refugees would be compensated or resettled in the newly-created Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. These fundamental imperatives, coupled with appropriate security guarantees for Israel, represent what was on the negotiating table in 2000 at Camp David and in 2008/2009 in Jerusalem and Ramallah, with each round coming closer to finalizing an agreement yet ultimately failing to do so. The question is: why?The answer lies far beyond the political concessions on the ground and is deeply embedded in the psychological dimension of the conflict, which impacts every conflicting issue between the two parties. This dimension is at play here: biased and selective perceptions, reinforced by historical experience, religion and incompatible ideologies, have locked both sides into immobile positions. The factors that maintain and enhance these patterns include emotions such as fear, distrust and insecurity; the psychological outcome is mutual denial of the narrative of the other and mutual delegitimization. Put together, the operative result is stagnation and polarization. What is therefore needed is a consensus-oriented dialogue at the leadership level, by both officials and non-officials, to resolve the issues of perception a tall order given the current environment that buttresses rather than ameliorates perceptions.There are certain psychological concepts which are relevant to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the concept of illusion is an essential one. In "The Future of an Illusion" (1927), Freud offers the following definition: "We call a belief an illusion when a wish-fulfillment is a prominent factor in its motivation and in doing so we disregard its relations to reality, just as the illusion itself sets no store by its verification." An illusion then is not necessarily an error, unlike a delusion - that is, illusions "need not necessarily be false... unrealizable or in contradiction to reality." What is characteristic of illusions is that: 1) they are derived from deep human wishes, and 2) the belief is held (or would be held) in the absence of any compelling evidence, or good rational grounds, in its behalf.It is impossible to deny that both Israelis and Palestinians are in the grip of very powerful illusions which only serve to prolong the conflict and prevent any mutual understanding. What are some of these illusions, or pipe-dreams, as the great American playwright Eugene O'Neill would call them? Following O'Neill, we can distinguish between pipe-dreams of yesterday and pipe-dreams of tomorrow. For example, the belief shared by many Israelis that they have a biblical right to the land (the ancient biblical lands of Judea and Samaria) and that God gave the Jews this land for all time is undoubtedly an illusion or a pipe-dream of yesterday. It is not affirmed because there is any real evidence for it, but because it satisfies a deep-seated psychological need for a God-given Jewish homeland. The belief that by expanding the settlements Israel will augment its national security is a pipe-dream of tomorrow. It is important to note how these illusions sustain and reinforce one another, and constitute a psychological barrier which is that much more impervious to critical reflection. Israel's illusions have served to create the logic for occupation, ultimately perpetuating the dehumanization of the Palestinians.The Palestinians, for their part, are not without their own illusions. They believe, for example, that God has reserved the land for them, and appeal to the fact that they had inhabited the land for centuries. The presence of the al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem attest to their unmitigated historical and religious affinity to the Holy City. They also cling to the idea that they will someday return to the land of their forebears, as they have and continue to insist on the right of return of the Palestinian refugees, even though this has become a virtual impossibility. The Palestinians cling to their pipe-dreams of yesterday and tomorrow just as blindly and desperately as the Israelis, which leads to resistance to and fear of change.This has contributed to making the Israeli-Palestinian conflict both chronic and intractable, as the various illusions are continuously and consciously nurtured by the daily encounters between the two sides. It would thus appear that the psychological concept of resistance to change is extremely relevant as well. First, a distinction is needed between resistance to persuasion, which is conscious and deliberate, and inner unconscious resistance to change. In his essay, "The Psychological Dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: the Role of Psychological Resistance," David Rabinowitz, one of Israel's leading psychiatrists, observes that an important function of unconscious resistance is that it is protective in nature. In seeking bridging concepts that could link between the domains of psychology and politics in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it could be proposed that a collective mutual resistance to change protects a vulnerable identity. Compared to the stable and mature political identities of the American, British and French nations, the political identities of both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples are, in a way, in their adolescence. Identities in this setting are more vulnerable, and the protagonists are naturally more defensive and resistant to change. By its very nature, the players must find it difficult (if not impossible) to articulate this publically, as to do so is to admit to this vulnerability.The concept of psychological resistance to change may well affect the political setting in general and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular; it is closely connected to perceptions at many levels. Indeed, the psychological resistance provides protection for vulnerable identity formation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is this mindset, strengthened by historical experiences, which transcends the more than nine decades since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict began. The individuals and groups, Israelis and Palestinians alike, have and continue to interpret the nature of the discord between them as "you versus me" in a prejudiced and selective way. In turn, this has stifled any new information and enabled the continuing resistance to change, which could shed new light on the nature and the substance of the conflict and help advance the peace process.The concept of unconscious resistance to change in this setting links well to the view of perceptions driving the polarization in the conflict. Historical experience, which formulates perceptions, serves among other things to enhance the sense of identity of "who we really are," a formative collective assumption that sits at the bedrock of both key players and drives functional and dysfunctional behavior. As Rabinowitz puts it, "the central benefit of this powerful unconscious resistance to change provides is the protection of a relatively vulnerable core identity [primary gains]. Secondary gains, however, are essentially the side-effects of the chronic polarization of this conflict: powerful allies offering material and political support [the US' support of Israel and moderate Palestinians verses Iran's support for Palestinian militants such as Hamas], engaging in alluring narratives, public attention and useful alliances etc." In principle, such a mindset prevents either side from entertaining new ideas that might lead to compromises for a peaceful solution. The paradox here is that majorities on both sides do seek and want peace, knowing full well that this would require significant concessions, but are unable to reconcile the required concessions with imbedded perceptions that have precluded these compromises as a result of resistance to change.Thus, to mitigate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we must first carefully look into the various elements that inform the psychological dimension of the conflict, and discuss how they impact the relationship between the two sides and what it would take to alleviate these psychological impediments as prerequisites to finding a solution.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

NEWS,17.11.2012



Israel Widens Airstrike Assault In Gaza

 

Israel bombarded the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip with about 300 airstrikes Saturday and shot down a Palestinian rocket fired at Tel Aviv, the military said, widening a blistering assault to include the Hamas prime minister's headquarters, a police compound and a vast network of smuggling tunnels.The intensified airstrikes came as Egyptian-led attempts to broker a cease-fire and end Israel's four-day-old Gaza offensive gained momentum. The leaders of Hamas and two key allies, Qatar and Turkey, were in Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials, and the Arab League was holding an emergency meeting.The White House said President Barack Obama was also in touch with the Egyptian and Turkish leaders. The U.S. has solidly backed Israel so far.Speaking on Air Force One, deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said that the White House believes Israel "has the right to defend itself" against attack and that the Israelis will make their own decisions about their "military tactics and operations."The Israeli attacks, which Gaza officials say left 12 dead, came as Palestinian militants fired more than 100 rockets toward Israel, including two aimed at the commercial and cultural center of Tel Aviv. Rocket attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem this week mark the first time Gaza militants have managed to fire rockets toward the cities, raising the stakes in the confrontation.The widened scope of targets brings the scale of fighting closer to that of the war the two groups waged four years ago. Hamas was badly bruised during that conflict, but has since restocked its arsenal with more and better weapons, and has been under pressure from smaller, more militant groups to prove its commitment to fighting Israel.In a psychological boost for the Israelis, a sophisticated Israeli rocket-defense system known as "Iron Dome" knocked down one of the rockets headed toward Tel Aviv, eliciting cheers from relieved residents huddled in fear after air raid sirens sounded in the city.Associated Press video showed a plume of smoke rising from a rocket-defense battery deployed near the city, followed by a burst of light overhead. The smoke trailed the intercepting missile.Police said a second rocket also targeted Tel Aviv. It was not clear where it landed or whether it was shot down. No injuries were reported. It was the third straight day the city was targeted.Israel says the Iron Dome system has shot down some 250 incoming rockets, most of them in southern Israel near Gaza.Saturday's interception was the first time Iron Dome has been deployed in Tel Aviv. The battery was a new upgraded version that was only activated on Saturday, two months ahead of schedule, officials said.Israel opened the offensive on Wednesday with a surprising airstrike that killed Hamas' military chief, then attacked dozens of rocket launchers and storage sites. It says the offensive is meant to halt months of rocket fire on southern Israel.While Israel claims to be inflicting heavy damage on Gaza's Hamas rulers, it has failed to slow the rocket fire. In all, 42 Palestinians, including 13 civilians, have been killed, while three Israeli civilians have died.Maj. Gen. Tal Russo, Israel's southern commander, said Saturday that Hamas had suffered a tough blow."Most of their capabilities have been destroyed," he told reporters. Asked whether Israel is ready to send ground troops into Gaza, he said: "Absolutely."Israel has authorized the call-up of as many as 75,000 reservists ahead of a possible ground operation. Dozens of armoured vehicles have massed along the border with Gaza in recent days.Israeli officials say they have not yet decided whether to send in ground troops, a decision that would almost certainly lead to heavy casualties on both sides.In Saturday's fighting, Israeli aircraft pounded militants' weapons storage facilities and underground rocket launching sites, and went after rocket squads more aggressively.Militants, undaunted, have unleashed some 500 rockets against the Jewish state.Hamas claims that Israeli intelligence is based on a network of collaborators in Gaza. Officials said two Palestinians have been executed by Hamas' military wing for allegedly providing Israel with sensitive information. One man was shot twice in the head. Another body was tossed into a garbage bin with a gunshot wound to the head.The violence has threatened the Mideast with a new war. At the same time, revolts against entrenched regional regimes have opened up new possibilities for Hamas. Islamists across the Mideast have been strengthened, bringing newfound recognition to Hamas, which had previously been shunned by the international community because of its refusal to recognize Israel and renounce violence.A high-level Tunisian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem, drove that point home with a visit to Gaza on Saturday. The foreign minister's first stop was the still-smoldering ruins of the three-story office building of Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas."Israel has to understand that there is an international law and it has to respect the international law to stop the aggression against the Palestinian people," Abdessalem told the AP during a tour of Gaza's main hospital. He said his country was doing whatever it can to promote a cease-fire, but did not elaborate.It was the first official Tunisian visit since Hamas's violent 2007 takeover of the territory. The West Bank is governed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Egypt's prime minister visited Gaza on Friday and a Moroccan delegation was due on Sunday, following a landmark visit by Qatar's leader last month.Israel had been incrementally expanding its operation beyond military targets but before dawn on Saturday it ramped that up dramatically, hitting Hamas symbols of power.Israeli defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential decisions, said military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz personally ordered the scope of the airstrikes to be increased.Haniyeh's three-story office building was flattened by an airstrike that blew out windows in neighboring homes. He was not inside the building at the time.Another airstrike brought down the three-story home of a Hamas commander in the Jebaliya refugee camp near Gaza City, critically wounding him and injuring other residents of the building, medics said.Missiles smashed into two small security facilities and the massive Hamas police headquarters in Gaza City, setting off a huge blaze that engulfed nearby houses and civilian cars parked outside, the Interior Ministry reported. No one was inside the buildings.The Interior Ministry said a government compound was also hit while devout Muslims streamed to the area for early morning prayers, although no casualties were reported.Air attacks knocked out five electricity transformers, cutting off power to more than 400,000 people in southern Gaza, according to the Gaza electricity distribution company. People switched on backup generators for limited electrical supplies.In southern Gaza, aircraft went after underground tunnels militants use to smuggle in weapons and other contraband from Egypt, residents reported. A huge explosion in the area sent buildings shuddering in the Egyptian city of El-Arish, 45 kilometers (30 miles) away, an Associated Press correspondent there reported.The Israeli military said more than 950 targets have been struck since the operation began.On Saturday, more than 120 rockets slammed into Israel, causing damage to houses. About 10 Israelis were injured lightly, among dozens of others wounded since the start of the operation.Despite the violence, Egyptian-led diplomacy was underway to bring an end to the fighting.Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was meeting the leaders of Turkey and Qatar Saturday as well as Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to discuss details of a proposed cease-fire.The Arab League also met Saturday to consider sending its chief Nabil Elaraby and a team of foreign ministers to Gaza in the coming two days to assess the situation and respond to humanitarian needs there, according to a draft memorandum obtained by the AP.Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters Saturday that during discussions with Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin late Friday, he suggested that Turkey, Egypt, the United States and Russia help broker a simultaneous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas."It would be good if we could work on it rapidly to solve the matter within 24 hours, because the death toll is mounting," he said.

Israel-Gaza Conflict Analysis: A Clash Waiting To Happen

 

Since Israel completed a devastating military offensive in the Gaza Strip four years ago, military officials have warned it was only a matter of time before the next round of fighting. Violence erupted this week with little warning, driven by Hamas' ambitions to make its mark on a changing Middle East and an Israeli government reacting to public outcry over rocket attacks just weeks ahead of national elections.It is a clash of wills driven by wildly contradictory narratives nurtured over the years by two deeply antagonistic societies with little in common save a deep-seated sense of historical grievance and victimization.From Israel's perspective, the fact that it withdrew from Gaza in 2005, pulling out all soldiers and settlements after a 38-year occupation, should have been the end of its troubles with the 1.6 million Palestinians there. The continued rocket attacks especially since Hamas militants seized the coastal strip from the more moderate Fatah faction in 2006 are seen as an outrage that justifies extreme measures. No country, Israelis argue, could possibly be asked to tolerate a decade of rocket attacks.That view aligns with a deeper historical grievance: Israelis feel their Zionist movement was fundamentally a return home from two millennia of exile but that it was met from the beginning by Arab rejection and violence. The Holocaust, the World War II slaughter of 6 million Jews by the Nazis even as Jews were building their state-in-waiting, further fed the sense of victimization accompanied by a distrust of the world and an obsession with self-reliance.Hamas, on the other hand, rejects any Jewish connection to the Holy Land and views Israel as a colonial outpost in the heart of the Islamic world that must be destroyed. And among Palestinians, the Gazans' specific sense of victimization stems most directly from the miserable living conditions in a crowded, besieged and impoverished coastal strip a few miles wide. Israel's soldiers and settlers may be gone, but Israel continues to seal off its border with Gaza, blockades its seacoast for fear of weapons imports, and controls the airspace and that, they reason, means that Gaza remains "occupied" and therefore "resistance" retains legitimacy.That narrative aligns with a seething hatred of Israel fed by the fact that roughly three-quarters of the strip's population are refugees or descendants of refugees who lost their homes in what became Israel in 1948. For many, the current predicament is one chapter in a long story that will end with the restoration of historical Palestine to Arab and Muslim control.In that context, the current historical moment takes on particular potential for instability and escalation.The Arab Spring has opened up many new possibilities for Hamas, which has long been shunned by the international community. The changes in the region have strengthened Islamists across the Middle East, bringing Hamas newfound recognition. Last month's visit by Qatar's emir and Friday's solidarity mission by the prime minister of Egypt's new Islamist government illustrated the growing acceptance of Hamas."I say on behalf of the Egyptian people that Egypt today is different than Egypt yesterday and the Arabs today are different that the Arabs of yesterday," Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a member of Hamas' parent movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, said Friday. "I say with all confidence Egypt will not leave Gaza on its own."Such words were hardly imaginable under ousted President Hosni Mubarak, who leaned to the West and whose officials over the years were much engaged in evenhanded mediation between Israel and various Palestinian factions.But Hamas has paid a price in public opinion, especially among its religious and conservative base. The organization rose to power as an armed resistance group, and is considered by not only Israel but also the United States as a terrorist organization. Many in Gaza, ranging from longtime supporters to more radical al-Qaida-influenced groups, have accused it of going soft. Recent attacks on Israel, and this week's confrontation, are meant in part to re-establish Hamas' militant credentials.For Israel, the offensive in Gaza has been brewing for months. After dealing Hamas a heavy blow in an offensive four years ago, Israeli intelligence has carefully watched the group recover and restock its arsenal with more powerful weapons and longer-range rockets. Rocket fire has steadily increased over the past two years, with more than 1,000 launched at Israel this year alone, according to the military. A pair of incidents last week marked a significant escalation in Israel's view. First, Hamas militants blew up a tunnel along the Israeli border in an attempt to attack Israeli troops. Then, Hamas fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli jeep, seriously wounding four soldiers.Israel's unhappiness with Hamas' surging confidence was evident in comments by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. "Hamas mistakenly thought that because of the change in government in Egypt and the election here that we will not respond properly," he said.As rocket fire heated up early this week, there were an increasing number of calls by the Israeli public for a response by the government, which is up for re-election on Jan. 22.Might Israel have decided to escalate or allow itself to be easily provoked – with electoral calculations in mind? Israeli officials dismiss such suggestions, and the army says the objective is solely to halt the rocket fire.Still, historical precedent certainly seems to be there:In June 1981, weeks before a vote he seemed set to lose, Prime Minister Menachem Begin ordered the air force to destroy Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak in faraway Iraq. The strike was successful, Begin won the election by a whisker, and as a bonus the world even came to appreciate the elimination of Saddam's potential nuclear weapons.Fifteen years later the man Begin defeated, Shimon Peres, found himself as caretaker prime minister and saddled with a electorally inconvenient reputation as an overzealous advocate for peace. First, Peres ordered the killing of Hamas' key bombmaker, leading to a series of ferocious revenge bombings that badly sapped his support. And in April 1996, two months before the vote, he ordered a massive air campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon which many considered to be at least partly politically driven. The campaign ended with Hezbollah still in place and Israel halting the operation ignobly after mistakenly killing dozens in a U.N. compound. Peres lost by a whisker.Four years ago the man who defeated Peres then, Benjamin Netanyahu, was staging a comeback after a few years out of office, and surging in the polls. The government of Ehud Olmert, far more moderate than Netanyahu, ordered an operation against Hamas.The reason will be familiar to anyone watching the news today: Israeli public opinion was fed up with rockets from Gaza.

 

The Gaza Fighting: On Strategy and Politics


While the fighting is raging in Gaza and southern and central Israel, it is also in Tehran and Beirut where there are many sleepless military and strategic planners who watch the situation with keen interest and most likely with a growing sense of concern. This is so because the fighting is having implications which are clearly stretching beyond the immediate arena of hostilities.The first operation of the Israeli Air Force was to destroy the medium range Fajr 5 ("dawn" in Arabic) missiles which were supplied to Hamas by Iran in order to serve as a deterrence against an Israeli attack on Gaza, but much more significantly, to be used if and when Israel and/or the U.S. were to attack the Iranian nuclear program. By the IDF accounts, most of these missiles were destroyed, and very few were left, the ones that are being fired now at Tel Aviv.If the IDF account is right, people in Tehran and Beirut can be worried. This is because the Fajrs may have been sacrificed on the wrong cause and prematurely, so far as Iran and the Hezbollah are concerned. They know that it will be next to impossible to rearm Hamas, bearing in mind the reports about the effective aerial activity over Sudan, allegedly by Israel, which seems to have cut off the main Iranian supply route to Hamas. The precision of the intelligence used to destroy the Fajr shelters and the technology used, combined with the ability to effectively act in Sudan, which is further away from Israel than Iran, may all lead to some hectic and urgent discussions in Tehran and Beirut. Hezbollah in Lebanon is making all the expected noises but is not showing, not as yet, at least, any signs of an appetite to be dragged into the fighting. In this case, they and their Iranian masters know better than to put at risk their second strike capacity at the wrong time and in the wrong arena.So, Hamas is pretty much left to its own devices, getting verbal, medical and political support from the Muslim Brotherhood president and government of Egypt, but it is very unlikely that this show of solidarity will evolve into a full-scale military engagement. That is a very distant scenario. Yet the Egyptians do hold a card, that if used properly and prudently by them, could be effective in deterring a large Israeli ground operation, and this is the threat of complete rupture of diplomatic relations with Israel, not just the anticipated, ritualistic recall of the Ambassador from Tel Aviv. PM Netanyahu's government is clearly interested in preventing a complete rupture, something that may cause worry and consternation in the Israeli public.Jordan to the east, is watching the events today, of all days, with trepidation, to be expected in view of the bloody riots which took place there in the last few days, and the likely possibility that the Friday prayers in the mosques will be the flashpoint for a major, out-of-control eruption, fueled by the fighting. It is worth noting that until now, the riots took place in Jordanian-populated towns, rather than among the Palestinians. All hell will break loose if they spread over to these areas.Surely, also Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority is watching the situation with growing sense of alarm. Abbas' control of the situation until now surely adds good points to his resume. This is a point to be taken and considered seriously by PM Netanyahu, and this is where politics and strategy converge.Netanyahu is currently riding high in Israel, not uncommon in the early days of any round of fighting. Some leftists are demonstrating, but the election campaign is at a total standstill, not bad for a sitting and challenged PM. Potential rivals of Netanyahu are suspending an announcement about joining the campaign against him, and may very well abandon their plans altogether. Again, good news for the PM. More good news comes from world leaders, primarily President Obama, President Hollande and PM Cameron, who give strong backing to the Israeli right of self defense. That coupled with Abbas' low profile enables Netanyahu's people to cry "we told you so," in response to concerns voiced, also in this blog, about Israel's international standing, particularly the sour relationships between Netanyahu and Obama.Well, the real test of these relationships is still awaiting. It will be about Iran, and yes, also about the currently moribund peace process with the Palestinian Authority. PM Netanyahu, most likely to remain in this office also after January 22nd (Israel's elections), will still be required to show meaningful readiness to reactivate this process. If at all, Abbas' handling of the current situation will add pressure on Israel, rather than not.And back to Gaza, a ground operation may seem inevitable, but will be fraught with unexpected risks and potential negative unintended consequences, not only with regard to Israel's foreign relations, but also in view of the election campaign. PM Netanyahu is definitely going to have a very tense weekend.