NEWS,08.02.2013

Northeast Blizzard Warnings Posted As Region Braces For Up To Several Feet Of Snow

Snow began falling across the Northeast on Friday, ushering in what was predicted to be a huge, possibly historic blizzard and sending residents scurrying to stock up on food and gas up their cars. The storm could dump 1 to 3 feet of snow from New York City to Boston and beyond.Even before the first snowflake had fallen, Boston, Providence, R.I., Hartford, Conn., and other towns and cities in New England and upstate New York towns canceled school Friday, and airlines scratched more than 3,700 flights through Saturday, with the disruptions certain to ripple across the U.S."This one doesn't come along every day. This is going to be a dangerous winter storm," said Alan Dunham, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Taunton, Mass. "Wherever you need to get to, get there by Friday afternoon and don't plan on leaving."The heaviest snowfall was expected Friday night and into Saturday. Wind gusts could reach 75 mph. Widespread power failures were feared, along with flooding in coastal areas still recovering from Superstorm Sandy in October.Boston could get 2 to 3 feet of snow, while New York City was expecting 10 to 14 inches. Mayor Michael Bloomberg said plows and 250,000 tons of salt were being put on standby. To the south, Philadelphia was looking at a possible 2 to 5 inches.Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick banned all traffic from roads after 4 p.m., believed to be the state's first such ban since the blizzard of 1978.In the southeastern Massachusetts town of Whitman, where up to 2 1/2 feet of snow was forecast, public works crews were clearing crosswalk signs, trash barrels and anything else that might impede plows later in the day."We've had instances where they have predicted something big and it's petered out," said Dennis Smith, a public works employee. "I don't think this is going to be one of those times."Smith's partner, Bob Trumbull, sounded a note of optimism, saying the relative lack of snow earlier this winter would make this storm easier to clean up. "At least there is room for this snow. There are no snowbanks so we will have a place to put it," Trumbull said.Snow was being blamed for a 19-car pileup in Maine Friday morning in Cumberland, as 6 inches blanketed the area.A New Jersey town hit hard by Superstorm Sandy issued a voluntary evacuation order for areas that are still recovering from that storm. Residents in flood-prone sections of Brick Township were also urged to move their cars to higher ground by 5 p.m.Amtrak suspended train service between New York and Boston in the afternoon.The organizers of New York's Fashion Week a closely watched series of fashion shows held under a big tent said they will have extra crews to help with snow removal and will turn up the heat and add an extra layer to the venue.Airlines canceled at least 3,775 flights ahead of the storm, according to airline tracking website FlightAware. At New York City's three main airports, most U.S. airlines planned to suspend operations between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., resuming after noon on Saturday, FlightAware said. At Boston's Logan and other New England airports, most airlines were to cease operations between noon and 4 p.m.This is a storm of major proportions," Boston Mayor Thomas Menino said Friday. "Stay off the roads. Stay home."Blizzard warnings were posted for parts of New Jersey and New York's Long Island, as well as portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, including Hartford, New Haven, Conn., and Providence. The warnings extended into New Hampshire and Maine.In New England, it could prove to be among the top 10 snowstorms in history, and perhaps even break Boston's record of 27.6 inches, set in 2003, the National Weather Service said. The last major snowfall in southern New England was well over a year ago the Halloween storm of 2011.Dunham said southern New England has seen less than half its normal snowfall this season, but "we're going to catch up in a heck of a hurry." He added: "Everybody's going to get plastered with snow."Some gas stations in Connecticut ran out of fuel Thursday night during the rush to prepare for the storm. Long lines were reported at many stations.At Stop & Shop supermarket in Mount Vernon, N.Y., on Friday morning, there was a line of shoppers outside when it opened at 7 a.m., and a steady stream followed. Checkout lines were long.Mary Anne DiBello was stocking up her cart as the snow began to fall. She said she hosted a sleepover Thursday night with four 9- and 10-year-olds, including her daughter."Now I think I'm going to be stuck with them until I bring them to school on Monday," she said.The governors of Connecticut and Massachusetts ordered nonessential state workers to stay home Friday and urged travelers to stay home.

Renewed tension between China, Japan

China and Japan engaged on Friday in a fresh round of invective over military movements near a disputed group of uninhabited islands, fuelling tensions that for months have bedevilled relations between the two major Asian powers. China's defence ministry rejected a Japanese allegation that a naval vessel had aimed a weapons-targeting radar at a Japanese military ship in the East China Sea, its first comment on the week-old incident. It said Japan's intrusive tracking of Chinese vessels was the "root cause" of the renewed tension.A Japanese official on Friday dismissed the Chinese explanation for the 30 January incident. He said Beijing's actions could precipitate a dangerous situation in waters around the islets, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan, believed to be rich in oil and gas.His comments came a day after Japan said two Russian fighter jets briefly entered its air space near other, long-disputed islands, prompting Japan to scramble combat fighters. Russia denied the charge.China's defence ministry, in a statement issued late on Thursday, said Japan's remarks "do not match the facts". The Chinese ship's radar, it said, had maintained regular alerting operations and "did not use fire control radar". The ministry said the Chinese ship was tracked by a Japanese destroyer during routine training exercises. Fire control radar pinpoints the location of a target for missiles or shells and its use can be considered a step short of actual firing.Japan, it said, had recently "made irresponsible remarks that hyped up the so-called 'China threat', recklessly created tension and misled international public opinion."... In recent years, Japanese warships and aeroplanes have often conducted long periods of close-range tracking and surveillance of China's naval ships and aeroplanes. This is the root cause of air and maritime security issues between China and Japan."In Tokyo, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Sugatold a news conference on Friday: "We cannot accept China's explanation."Japan's allegations, he said, had been "a result of our defence ministry's careful and detailed analysis. We urge China to take sincere measures to prevent dangerous actions which could cause a contingency situation."Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said this week that the incident could have become very dangerous very quickly, and that use of the radar could be seen as a threat of military force under UN rules.Hopes have been rising in recent weeks for a thaw in ties after months of tension, sparked, in part, by Japan's nationalisation of three of the privately owned islets last September.Fears that encounters between aircraft and ships could degenerate into an accidental clash have given impetus to efforts to improve links, including a possible summit between Abe and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who takes over as head of state in March.

The Role of Psychological Resistance

The most puzzling aspect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that after 65 years of mutual violence, enmity and suffering, it remains unresolved even when coexistence is inevitable and a two-state solution remains the only viable option. Although there are many contentious issues that must be specifically addressed, it is the psychological dimension of the conflict which directly impacts every conflicting issue and makes it increasingly intractable. To mitigate the conflict, we must first look into the elements that inform the psychological dimension and how to alleviate them as prerequisites to finding a solution. This is the first of six articles.On the surface, the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process seems illogical and unsettling. After all, a majority of Israelis and Palestinians realize the inevitability of coexistence and presumably understand the general parameters of a negotiated peace agreement: a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with some land swaps, Jerusalem would remain a united city (but a capital of two states), and the vast majority of Palestinian refugees would be compensated or resettled in the newly-created Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. These fundamental imperatives, coupled with appropriate security guarantees for Israel, represent what was on the negotiating table in 2000 at Camp David and in 2008/2009 in Jerusalem and Ramallah, with each round coming closer to finalizing an agreement yet ultimately failing to do so. The question is: why?The answer lies far beyond the political concessions on the ground and is deeply embedded in the psychological dimension of the conflict, which impacts every conflicting issue between the two parties. This dimension is at play here: biased and selective perceptions, reinforced by historical experience, religion and incompatible ideologies, have locked both sides into immobile positions. The factors that maintain and enhance these patterns include emotions such as fear, distrust and insecurity; the psychological outcome is mutual denial of the narrative of the other and mutual delegitimization. Put together, the operative result is stagnation and polarization. What is therefore needed is a consensus-oriented dialogue at the leadership level, by both officials and non-officials, to resolve the issues of perception a tall order given the current environment that buttresses rather than ameliorates perceptions.There are certain psychological concepts which are relevant to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the concept of illusion is an essential one. In "The Future of an Illusion" (1927), Freud offers the following definition: "We call a belief an illusion when a wish-fulfillment is a prominent factor in its motivation and in doing so we disregard its relations to reality, just as the illusion itself sets no store by its verification." An illusion then is not necessarily an error, unlike a delusion - that is, illusions "need not necessarily be false... unrealizable or in contradiction to reality." What is characteristic of illusions is that: 1) they are derived from deep human wishes, and 2) the belief is held (or would be held) in the absence of any compelling evidence, or good rational grounds, in its behalf.It is impossible to deny that both Israelis and Palestinians are in the grip of very powerful illusions which only serve to prolong the conflict and prevent any mutual understanding. What are some of these illusions, or pipe-dreams, as the great American playwright Eugene O'Neill would call them? Following O'Neill, we can distinguish between pipe-dreams of yesterday and pipe-dreams of tomorrow. For example, the belief shared by many Israelis that they have a biblical right to the land (the ancient biblical lands of Judea and Samaria) and that God gave the Jews this land for all time is undoubtedly an illusion or a pipe-dream of yesterday. It is not affirmed because there is any real evidence for it, but because it satisfies a deep-seated psychological need for a God-given Jewish homeland. The belief that by expanding the settlements Israel will augment its national security is a pipe-dream of tomorrow. It is important to note how these illusions sustain and reinforce one another, and constitute a psychological barrier which is that much more impervious to critical reflection. Israel's illusions have served to create the logic for occupation, ultimately perpetuating the dehumanization of the Palestinians.The Palestinians, for their part, are not without their own illusions. They believe, for example, that God has reserved the land for them, and appeal to the fact that they had inhabited the land for centuries. The presence of the al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem attest to their unmitigated historical and religious affinity to the Holy City. They also cling to the idea that they will someday return to the land of their forebears, as they have and continue to insist on the right of return of the Palestinian refugees, even though this has become a virtual impossibility. The Palestinians cling to their pipe-dreams of yesterday and tomorrow just as blindly and desperately as the Israelis, which leads to resistance to and fear of change.This has contributed to making the Israeli-Palestinian conflict both chronic and intractable, as the various illusions are continuously and consciously nurtured by the daily encounters between the two sides. It would thus appear that the psychological concept of resistance to change is extremely relevant as well. First, a distinction is needed between resistance to persuasion, which is conscious and deliberate, and inner unconscious resistance to change. In his essay, "The Psychological Dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: the Role of Psychological Resistance," David Rabinowitz, one of Israel's leading psychiatrists, observes that an important function of unconscious resistance is that it is protective in nature. In seeking bridging concepts that could link between the domains of psychology and politics in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it could be proposed that a collective mutual resistance to change protects a vulnerable identity. Compared to the stable and mature political identities of the American, British and French nations, the political identities of both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples are, in a way, in their adolescence. Identities in this setting are more vulnerable, and the protagonists are naturally more defensive and resistant to change. By its very nature, the players must find it difficult (if not impossible) to articulate this publically, as to do so is to admit to this vulnerability.The concept of psychological resistance to change may well affect the political setting in general and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular; it is closely connected to perceptions at many levels. Indeed, the psychological resistance provides protection for vulnerable identity formation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is this mindset, strengthened by historical experiences, which transcends the more than nine decades since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict began. The individuals and groups, Israelis and Palestinians alike, have and continue to interpret the nature of the discord between them as "you versus me" in a prejudiced and selective way. In turn, this has stifled any new information and enabled the continuing resistance to change, which could shed new light on the nature and the substance of the conflict and help advance the peace process.The concept of unconscious resistance to change in this setting links well to the view of perceptions driving the polarization in the conflict. Historical experience, which formulates perceptions, serves among other things to enhance the sense of identity of "who we really are," a formative collective assumption that sits at the bedrock of both key players and drives functional and dysfunctional behavior. As Rabinowitz puts it, "the central benefit of this powerful unconscious resistance to change provides is the protection of a relatively vulnerable core identity [primary gains]. Secondary gains, however, are essentially the side-effects of the chronic polarization of this conflict: powerful allies offering material and political support [the US' support of Israel and moderate Palestinians verses Iran's support for Palestinian militants such as Hamas], engaging in alluring narratives, public attention and useful alliances etc." In principle, such a mindset prevents either side from entertaining new ideas that might lead to compromises for a peaceful solution. The paradox here is that majorities on both sides do seek and want peace, knowing full well that this would require significant concessions, but are unable to reconcile the required concessions with imbedded perceptions that have precluded these compromises as a result of resistance to change.Thus, to mitigate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we must first carefully look into the various elements that inform the psychological dimension of the conflict, and discuss how they impact the relationship between the two sides and what it would take to alleviate these psychological impediments as prerequisites to finding a solution.

NEWS,15.11.2012

Gaza rocket lands near Tel Aviv as death toll rises

Two rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have landed close to Tel Aviv raising the stakes in a military showdown between Israel and the Palestinians that is moving towards all-out war.
It was the first attack on Israel's biggest city in 20 years.
Earlier, a Hamas rocket killed three Israelis north of the Gaza Strip, drawing the first blood from Israel as the Palestinian death toll rose to 16.
On the second day of an assault that Israel said might last many days and culminate in a ground attack, its warplanes bombed targets in and around Gaza City.
Plumes of smoke and dust furled into a sky laced with the vapour trails of outgoing rockets over the crowded city, where four young children killed yesterday were buried.
The sudden conflict, launched by Israel with the killing of Hamas's military chief, pours oil on the fire of a Middle East already ablaze with two years of revolution and an out-of-control civil war in Syria.
In brief:

• Israel has launched a major offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip
• It says the attack is in response to Palestinian rocket strikes
• One air strike killed Hamas's military chief Ahmed Al-Jaabari
• Two rockets have landed near Israel's biggest city - Tel Aviv
• Some 270 rockets have been fired at Israel since its operation started
• At least 16 people (including five children) have been killed in the Gaza Strip
• Three Israelis have also been killed in the town of Kiryat Malachi

Egypt's new Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, viewed by Hamas as a protector, led a chorus of denunciation of the Israeli strikes by Palestinian allies.
Mursi's prime minister, Hisham Kandil, will visit Gaza on Friday local time with other Egyptian officials in a show of support for the enclave, an Egyptian cabinet official said.
Israel promised that the delegation would come to no harm.
Israel says its attack is in response to escalating missile strikes from Gaza.

Tel Aviv
Israel's bombing has not yet reached the saturation level seen before it last invaded Gaza in 2008, but Israeli officials have said a ground assault is still an option.
Israeli police said three Israelis died when a rocket hit a four-story building in the town of Kiryat Malachi, some 25km north of Gaza, the first Israeli fatalities of the latest conflict to hit the coastal region.
Air raid sirens sent residents running for shelter in Tel Aviv, Israel's commercial centre. A security source said the rocket - claimed by Islamic Jihad - landed in the sea.
The second was said to have landed in an uninhabited area of the Tel Avivi suburbs.
Tel Aviv residents said an explosion could be heard.The Tel Aviv metropolitan area holds more than three million people - more than 40% of Israel's population.
In remarks broadcast after rockets were fired at Tel Aviv, Israel's Defence Minister Ehud Barak said: "This escalation will exact a price that the other side will have to pay."
He also announced he had ordered the military to enlist more reservists "so that we can prepare for any development".
'Double war crime'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hamas was committing a double war crime, by firing at Israeli civilians and hiding behind Palestinians civilians.
"I hope that Hamas and the other terrorist organisations in Gaza got the message," he said. "If not, Israel is prepared to take whatever action is necessary to defend our people."
Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said Israel would pay a heavy price "for this open war which they initiated".
After watching powerlessly from the sidelines of the Arab Spring, Israel has been thrust to the centre of a volatile new world in which Islamist Hamas hopes that Mursi and his newly dominant Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt will be its protectors.
Hamas's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, urged Egypt to do more to help the Palestinians.
"We call upon the brothers in Egypt to take the measures that will deter this enemy," he said.
Instability
The new conflict will be the biggest test yet of Mursi's commitment to Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel, which the West views as the bedrock of Middle East peace.
"The Israelis must realise that this aggression is unacceptable and would only lead to instability in the region and would negatively and greatly impact the security of the region," Mursi said.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which brought Mursi to power in an election after the downfall of autocrat Hosni Mubarak, has called for a "Day of Rage" in Arab capitals on Friday.
The Brotherhood is seen as the spiritual mentors of Hamas.
Al-Jabaari
The Israeli offensive "Pillar of Defence" began on Wednesday when a precision Israeli airstrike killed Hamas military mastermind Ahmed Al-Jaabari. Israel then began shelling the enclave from land, air and sea.
The 15 killed in Gaza included Jaabari and six Hamas fighters plus eight civilians, among them a pregnant woman with twins, an 11-month old boy and three infants, according to the enclave's health ministry. Medics reported at least 130 wounded.
The Israeli army said 156 targets were hit in Gaza, 126 of them rocket launchers.
It said 200 rockets had struck Israel since the start of the operation, 135 of them since midnight local time.
Israel's Iron Dome interceptor system has so far shot down more than 80 rockets headed for residential areas, the military said.
Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets in Gaza telling residents to stay away from Hamas and other militants.

Euro zone falls into recession

The euro zone fell into a recession in July-September, the second since the global financial crisis in 2009, as French resilience could not make up for a slump across Europe and the three-year debt crisis slowed Germany to a crawl.Economic output in the 17-country euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, following a 0.2% drop in the second quarter.Those two quarters of contraction put the euro zone's 9.4 trillion euro ($14.7 trillion) economy officially in recession, although Italy and Spain have been contracting for a year already and Greece is suffering an outright depression.Germany and France, the euro zone's biggest economies, could not save the bloc from a double-dip recession even though both countries managed 0.2% growth in the quarter.Large countries like Italy, Spain and the Netherlands all contracted and Belgium, a big exporter, stagnated.Protests against cuts Millions of people across Europe protested against government spending cuts that EU policymakers say are crucial to ending the debt crisis but which others blame for the economic contraction."We are now getting into a double dip recession which is entirely self-made," said Paul De Grauwe, an economist with the London School of Economics."It is a result of excessive austerity in southern countries and unwillingness in the north to do anything else," he said.Not everyone shares that view and the European Commission says labour costs are falling and exports are rising for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, arguing that austerity is a necessary evil to bring down unsustainable budget deficits.The European Commission sees a 0.4 % contraction for the euro zone in all of 2012.Demand for goods drying up Hopes for a recovery next year are also fading, with the European Commission saying the economy will grow just 0.1% in 2013.A rebound in the euro zone could be vital for the rest of the world as the United States and China struggle with the impact of the crisis on their companies' ability to grow and prosper.In one positive sign, Eurostat said separately that the euro zone's annual inflation fell to 2.5% in October from 2.6% in September, suggesting an end to a run of stubborn inflation that has contributed to the difficult environment.But after months of resilience, Germany, Europe's largest economy, is seeing its companies unnerved by the crisis and demand for its goods in the euro zone and abroad is drying up.While German gross domestic product expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter, it slowed to 0.3% in the second and weakened again in the third quarter.Economists expect a worse performance in the fourth quarter.

Wall Street down

Wall Street dropped today, after Wal-Mart's profit outlook disappointed.Shares of Wal-Mart fell, last down 3.7%, after the retail giant predicted that its fourth-quarter profit will drop."Current macroeconomic conditions continue to pressure our customers," Charles Holley, Wal-Mart's executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in a statement.There was plenty of evidence of that pressure, exacerbated by the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Applications for unemployment benefits jumped more than expected, rising 78,000 to 439,000 in the week ended November 10, according to Labor Department data. A worrying sign indeed. "We will likely see a step back in job growth," Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, told Reuters.Separately, data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank and the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that indexes of manufacturing shrank in those regions this month. The latest data only add to the need for President Barack Obama and lawmakers to find a way to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, a mix of tax increases and spending cuts that will kick in automatically on January 1 and risk hampering the already-fragile economy.In afternoon trading in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.38%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index each shed 0.48%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index ended the day with a 1% slide from the previous close. The FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX each dropped 0.8%. France's CAC 40 shed 0.5%. There was more bad news for the euro zone economy. The latest data showed that the region's gross domestic product dropped 0.1% in the quarter, after a 0.2% decline in the second quarter.A  poll of more than 70 economists predicted the bloc's new recession will extend until the end of the year and 2013 promises little better than stagnation. Conducted before today's data were released, the consensus was for a 2012 contraction of 0.5% and only 0.1% growth next year."The euro zone as a whole has slipped back into recession," Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News. "Europe's economic downturn has not only deepened, it has also broadened with the core of the euro zone now much more affected. The bleak economic data out of Europe will further undermine sentiment," according to Spiro.In other news, BP said it reached a settlement with the US government to pay US$4.5 billion in penalties, settling all criminal charges and resolving securities claims relating to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

NEWS,13.08.2012

An Impediment or an Opportunity for Peace?

 

There is an ongoing debate in and outside of Israel as to whether or not this is the right time to forge peace with the Palestinians in light of the regional upheavals and instability. The peace process, at this juncture, is hopelessly frozen while the expansion of the Israeli settlements and the continued internal Palestinian strife and factionalism increasingly dims the prospect of reaching an agreement. That said, the Arab Spring, which has triggered the rise of the Arab youth against their governments and has been accompanied by uncertainty, is not an impediment but an opportunity to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution. The reality on the ground strongly suggests that maintaining the status quo will be particularly detrimental to Israel.Those inside the Netanyahu government who suggest that now is not the right time to seek a peace agreement with the Palestinians because of the regional turmoil and the existential threats that Israel now faces are both misguided and disingenuous. On the contrary, given the threats from Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah and the potential consequences of a failed state in Syria, it is a particularly critical moment for Israel to forge peace with the Palestinians. By doing so, Israel would be in a position to focus on the vastly more serious threats emanating from its real adversaries and would prevent the rise of a Palestinian fifth column, should Israel become mired in these regional conflicts. To enhance their positions, those who oppose peace now offer three faulty arguments to justify their stance.First, the Palestinians cannot be trusted and Israel "correctly" points to the precedents of the partial disengagement from the West Bank between 1993 and 2000, the complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 and the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. From the Israeli perspective, all of these moments attest to the Palestinians' inability or unwillingness to forge a permanent peace, despite having ample opportunities.Second, due to Palestinian factionalism and infighting, there is no credible partner with whom Israel can negotiate as the Palestinians have been unable to sustain a unity government. The Netanyahu government is convinced that even if an agreement is reached, it will still prove transient.Third, there are extremist Palestinian groups, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others, along with non-Palestinian factions, including Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, that are vehemently antagonistic toward Israel and remain committed to its destruction.However, none of the three arguments above can pass careful scrutiny. These types of arguments are used as excuses and a cover for the Netanyahu government's deep conviction that the Jews have an inherent right to whole "land of Israel". This remains an indefatigable nonstarter to reaching a peace agreement that requires significant territorial concessions, including the conversion of Jerusalem to the capital of Israeli and Palestinian states. From the Netanyahu government's perspective, the conditions of no peace and no war that currently prevail are preferable to a compromise of the Jews' historical rights and through a strong and determined will, Israel will eventually triumph.In light of the reality on the ground, which both the Israelis and the Palestinians alike must face by virtue of their inevitable coexistence, Israel must act now because the passage of time may well be to its detriment, if not its very existence. There are three critical issues that increasingly work against Israel.Considering Israel's demographic situation, its evolutionary path has shifted radically as emigration from Israel over the past two decades (about one million) is roughly equal to the immigration into Israel for the same period. This, along with low birth rates relative to the Palestinian population, continues to erode the sustainability of Israel's national character as a Jewish state. Should this growing demographic imbalance between the Jewish and Palestinian populations continue, Israel will be forced to either establish a single state (an unacceptable proposition for them as it will instantly make the Jewish population a minority) or resort to apartheid policies that will be vehemently rejected by the international community.In recent years Israel has been fortunate that Gaza and the West Bank were generally quiet with limited resistance to the occupation and only marginal rocket attacks from Gaza that the Israeli military was able to handle with ease. Maintaining the occupation, however, and the continuance of the creeping expansion of the settlements, coupled with the uprisings of Arab youth against their own governments, now make it only a matter of time before the Palestinians will be inspired, if not forced, to rise against the occupation. They will not remain indefinitely passive, as they clearly see that the longer they wait, the more their land will be consumed, resulting in an irreversible reality on the ground that will deny the rise of an independent and viable state.Moreover, Israel will continue to face intensifying pressure from the international community due to the perpetuation of the status quo, which will dramatically increase Israel's isolation. For the United States and the European Union, who continue to be steadfast supporters of Israel, the lack of progress has a destabilizing effect on the region, which directly and indirectly impacts their national strategic interests and undermines Israel's national security. Israel should not be surprised if its closest allies, especially the U.S., decide to advance their own frameworks for peace largely based on prior Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in an attempt to save Israel from charting its own disastrous path.In a broader context, Israel's current enemies, specifically Iran and Hezbollah, will continue to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to their advantage. To counteract this encroaching threat, Israel can at least begin to neutralize its antagonists' positions by taking steps that open the door for a negotiated solution and normalization of relations with the Arab states by accepting the Arab Peace Initiative as a basis for negotiations. While this strategy may not initially and necessarily change the principle objection to Israel's very existence by actors such as Iran and Hezbollah, Israel could shift the geopolitical conditions in the region in its favor. As I was convincingly told time and time again by top Arab officials, the Arab states are prepared to move toward establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel once an Israeli-Palestinian peace is achieved. They cite the changing dynamics in the region in the wake of the Arab spring and the ensuing battle between Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Shiites led by Iran who seeks regional hegemony.Despite the complex situation that Israel finds itself in, the basic question remains: how much longer can it sustain its present course without experiencing horrific and self-inflicted wounds? Israel must face the inevitable now while it is still in a strong position to negotiate an agreement with the Palestinians, a population that has, and can continue to, withstand the test of time. Unlike the precipitous withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza, any agreement with the Palestinians should be made with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and should be based on a quid pro quo that would involve phased withdrawals from the West Bank over a few years in order to foster mutual trust and normalization of relations while ensuring Israel's national security.Set against the context of the Arab Spring, Israel remains an oasis of stability with its economic, military and technological advantages continuing to strengthen over time. The inability of the Palestinians to change the dynamics in their favor has deepened the Israelis' complacency while removing any sense of urgency to solve the conflict, as they remain intoxicated by their military prowess and the deceptive calm before the storm. Simply put, passively waiting for the region to achieve a modicum of stability while Israel further entrenches itself in the territories is a non-starter as the Arab upheavals are not a fading phenomenon and will remain an engine of change for years, if not decades, to come. The Palestinian's turn will come sooner than expected.I must emphasize that the Palestinians, by their own violent actions and hostile public utterances, have directly contributed to the Israelis' skepticism and deepening of their conviction that the Palestinians are not partners to be trusted nor are they a population with whom they can negotiate a lasting peace. That said, it is up to Israel not to allow past experiences to blur its vision for the future and it must now chart its own future course by ending the occupation under specific "rules of disengagement" with the Palestinian Authority. Israel must never abandon the principles of equality and human rights regardless of race, color or religion, as they are the very basis on which the state arose from the ashes of the Holocaust.Netanyahu will eventually have to answer to the Israeli public as to what he has achieved over the past four years. The Israelis must now determine whether or not Netanyahu has made the conflict with the Palestinians considerably worse since he took office in 2009 and what price Israel will have to pay for his misguided and ominous policies.

Greek economy shrinks 6.2%

The Greek economy, struggling in a fifth year of recession, shrank 6.2% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, official data showed on Monday.The economy contracted 6.5% in the first quarter, worse than the initially given 6.2%, according to revised figures issued in June.The Bank of Greece expects the economy to shrink 4.5% for 2012 as a whole, following a 6.9% drop last year.The country is relying on two financial rescue packages backed by the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank worth around €240bn for its economic survival.Last year, private creditors agreed to write-off more than €100bn in debt, roughly half the amount they were owed, as part of a second bailout programme.Harsh austerity measures and economic reforms linked to the aid agreements have taken their toll on the economy, with unemployment hitting record highs.The conservative-led coalition government has yet to finalise spending cuts of about €11.5bn in order to unlock its next aid installment worth some €31bn.

UK tourism slumps during Olympics

The Olympics brought less tourist money to recession-hit Britain than officials promised, a trade group said on Monday, with a majority of businesses reporting losses from last year A survey of more than 250 tour operators, hoteliers and visitor attractions found that tourist traffic fell all over Britain, not just London, said UK inbound, a leading trade association representing British tour operators said. The survey said 88% of British tourism-oriented businesses reported some losses during the games compared with the same period last year. Officials are still tallying up the total number of tourists who came to or avoided  London this summer. The capital normally sees about 1.5 million tourists on average in August, but UK inbound and other trade groups say a significant number have chosen to steer clear of London, and even the rest of Britain because they thought it would be too busy. The official visitor figures won't be available until September. Tourism officials say that international Olympics visitors to London, including athletes, officials and tourists, totalled about 300 000. Domestic spectators from Britain made up the majority of people visiting games venues Restaurants and shops have complained that these games visitors did not spend as much money on food and shopping as typical summer tourists. "The people who came to the Games really didn't do very much sightseeing, didn't do very much shopping, didn't do very much eating out,"said Miles Quest, a spokesperson for the British Hospitality Association.London's hotels have hit about 80% occupancy, not more than typical August rates, Quest added.Visa, the only credit card accepted at the Olympics, reported that international visitors to Britain spent more than £450m ($705m) on their cards during the first week of the games, up by 8% on the same time last year.Around £12.7ms were spent on Visa cards in London restaurants last week, an increase of almost 20% on a year ago.

NEWS,26.03.2012.

Israel sees new advantage in Iron Dome anti-missile system

Israel's newest weapon sits squarely along the border of this southern Israeli town. The Iron Dome, a rocket interception system built by Israel, guards many of the cities that lie within the range of rockets fired by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The system, considered among the most advanced in the world, fires a missile to intercept incoming rockets after it gauges whether a rocket will fall in an area where it can cause damage. It is, according to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a "game changer."When violence flared along the Israel-Gaza border earlier this month, the effectiveness of the Iron Dome was tested, and Israeli officials couldn't have been more pleased.Of the approximately 250 rockets and mortars fired at Israel from Gaza, 166 entered Israel's airspace, officials said. Of those, 74 would have struck civilian areas or buildings. The Iron Dome system intercepted 56 before they could land, a success rate of 75 percent. Israeli officials argue, however, that the Iron Dome also identified rockets that were headed for open areas, such as fields, and let them land harmlessly. Factoring those in, Israeli military officials argue that only 18 of the 166 landed anywhere on target, giving the system a success rate of nearly 90 percent.Israeli military officers and politicians said the success of the system gave Israel "diplomatic maneuverability" that it didn't have previously. Israel Defense Forces chief Benny Gantz described the Iron Dome's impact as a "serious and historical military change."Gantz said the ability to protect Israeli population centers from rocket attacks removed one of the key factors that the military had always seen as a limitation on its operations: what the likelihood was of reprisals.Now, Gantz added, the Israeli military can operate relatively undeterred without concern about rocket attacks. The barrage of rockets earlier this month was triggered by the targeted killing in a drone strike of Zuhair al Qaissi, a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committee, an umbrella group that includes militants from various Palestinian factions.Iron Dome is just the beginning, Gantz said. While it focuses on smaller rockets with a relatively short range, such as those from the Gaza Strip, Israel is installing other systems that are intended to stop larger missiles, fired from farther away.David's Sling, a system built in conjunction with the U.S. military, is designed to intercept medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles, such as those possessed by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Another system, the Arrow, also developed with the United States, would intercept ballistic missiles fired from hundreds of miles away.Israeli military officials said they hoped the systems would deter militants from firing rockets."If they know we have the ability to stop their rockets from hitting their targets, they might abandon this method," said one Israel Defense Forces officer, who spoke to reporters recently on the condition of anonymity. "In the long run we can hope for this."Already though, the impact on Israeli residents of the south has been felt. Writing in The Jerusalem Post, military analyst Yaakov Katz said that, "Israel's political leadership is under less pressure from the public that is under the rocket fire. As a result, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Defense Minister Ehud Barak feel a need to escalate the operation."Meira Cohanim, a 56-year-old resident of Ashkelon, said she felt comforted that the military was trying to intercept missiles from Gaza, even if the system wasn't 100 percent effective."Before, you had this feeling that the rockets were just pounding away," she said. "And they would land wherever they did and your home was hit or it wasn't. Now there is a feeling that something might be changing; we might be protected."Iron Dome, she said, might give the Israel Defense Forces more leeway to operate in Gaza, but she hoped that it wouldn't mean another war."The people in Gaza don't have Iron Dome or even bomb shelters. I know some people here think it's good for us to attack them, but there are innocents and children there, too," she said. "I hope Iron Dome brings peace, not one-sided war."

NEWS,06.02.2012.

Palestinians take step toward unity

After months of wavering, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas took a decisive step Monday toward reconciliation with the Islamic militant group Hamas, a move Israel promptly warned would close the door to any future peace talks.In a deal brokered by Qatar, Abbas will head an interim unity government to prepare for general elections in the Palestinian territories in the coming months. The agreement appeared to bring reconciliation — key to any statehood ambitions — within reach for the first time since the two sides set up rival Palestinian governments in the West Bank and Gaza in 2007.Monday's deal, signed in the Qatari capital of Doha by Abbas and Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal, put an end to recent efforts by the international community to revive long-stalled negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians on the terms of Palestinian statehood. Abbas appears to have concluded that he has a better chance of repairing relations with Hamas, shunned by the West as a terror group, than reaching an agreement with Israel's hardline Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.Netanyahu quickly condemned the Doha deal. "It's either peace with Hamas or peace with Israel. You can't have them both," he said in a warning to Abbas, who has enjoyed broad international support. In moving closer to Hamas, Abbas risks losing some of that backing and hundreds of millions of dollars a year in aid.Qatar, awash with cash from vast oil and gas reserves, assured the Palestinians that it would help limit any political and financial damages, according to Palestinian officials close to the talks.Qatar is willing to spend as much as $10 billion to help repair the damage of the rift, including settling mutual grievances by supporters of Hamas and Abbas' Fatah movement who at the height of tensions fought bloody street battles, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the closed-door meetings with reporters. The figure could not be confirmed independently. Whether the Palestinian Authority loses any of the roughly $1 billion in foreign aid it received each year may partly depend on the interim government's political platform and Hamas' willingness to stay in the background.The new government is to be made up of politically independent experts, according to the Doha agreement. If headed by Abbas, devoid of Hamas members and run according to his political principles, it could try to make a case to be accepted by the West. Abbas aides said they were optimistic they could win international recognition.The Quartet of international Mideast mediators — the U.S., the U.N., the European Union and Russia — has said it would deal with any Palestinian government that renounces violence, recognizes Israel and supports a negotiated peace deal. Abbas has embraced these principles, while Hamas rejects them.Top Abbas aides Nabil Shaath and Azzam al-Ahmed said they are confident the new government will be based on the Quartet principles. In any case, they said, the interim government's focus will be to prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections, not to negotiate with Israel. Such elections won't be held in May, as initially envisioned, they said, but could take place several months later.In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the U.S. was seeking more information about what was agreed, and that reconciliation was an internal matter for Palestinians.” What matters to us are the principles that guide a Palestinian government going forward, in order for them to be able to play a constructive role for peace and building an independent state," Nuland said.” Any Palestinian government must unambiguously and explicitly commit to non-violence," she said. "It must recognize the state of Israel. And it must accept the previous agreements and obligations between the parties, including the road map. So those are our expectations."Nuland declined to say if the Fatah-Hamas arrangement would advance or hurt peace talks with Israel. She also appeared hesitant to address Netanyahu's warning to Abbas that the Palestinians can have "peace with Hamas or peace with Israel.""We maintain that both of these parties ought to stay committed to this process," Nuland told reporters.The European Union offered qualified support Monday, saying it considers Palestinian reconciliation and elections as important steps toward Mideast peace. The EU, a major financial backer of Abbas' Palestinian Authority, "looks forward to continuing its support," provided the new government meets the Quartet demands, said Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Last year, Abbas and Mashaal struck a reconciliation deal that later became bogged down in disagreement over who would head an interim government. Hamas strongly opposed Abbas' initial choice of Salam Fayyad, the head of his Palestinian Authority. Fayyad, an economist who is widely respected in the West, said Monday he welcomed the new deal even though it would cost him a job he has held since 2007.The breakthrough came after two days of meetings between Abbas and Mashaal, hosted by Qatar's emir, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. After the signing, Abbas said that "we promise our people to implement this agreement as soon as possible."Mashaal also said he was serious "about healing the wounds ... to reunite our people on the foundation of a political partnership, in order to devote our effort to resisting the (Israeli) occupation."Abbas and Hamas have had bitter ideological differences, with Abbas pursuing a deal with Israel and the violently anti-Israel Hamas dismissing such talks as a waste of time. The rift deepened with Hamas' 2007 takeover of Gaza, which left Abbas with only the West Bank.However, some of those differences seem to have narrowed in recent months.Abbas has lost faith in reaching a deal, at least with Netanyahu. Low-level Israeli-Palestinian border talks last month — an attempt by the international community to revive formal negotiations after more than three years of paralysis — only highlighted the vast gaps.The Palestinians want the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, with minor border adjustments, for their state. Israel's outline of a border deal, presented last month, meant it wants to keep east Jerusalem and large chunks of the West Bank, not enough concessions to keep Abbas engaged.Mashaal, meanwhile, has been prodding Hamas toward a more pragmatic stance that is closer to that of the group's parent movement, the pan-Arab Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood scored election victories in Egypt and Tunisia in the wake of the pro-democracy protests of the Arab Spring, and has urged Hamas to moderate and reconcile with Abbas.However, Mashaal represents Hamas in exile and appears to have had differences with the movement's more hardline leadership in Gaza, which stands to lose influence and jobs in a reconciliation deal. Some of the Gaza leaders have resisted Mashaal's push for unity and moving closer to the Brotherhood, Hamas officials have said privately.It remains unclear how much resistance Mashaal will now face from the Gaza leaders of the movement. One of the biggest challenges of reconciliation — how to blend the two sides' separate security forces — remains unresolved.Still, a delegation from Gaza was present in Doha for the signing, a possible sign of Qatari pressure on the hard-liners. Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas prime minister of Gaza, said he welcomed the agreement.The agreement calls for rebuilding Gaza, which has been largely cut off from the world as part of an Israeli-Egyptian border blockade imposed after the Hamas takeover. The blockade was eased in the past year, but not enough to revive the Gaza economy, including the vital construction industry, and many large-scale projects remain on hold.Al-Ahmed and Shaath, the Abbas aides, said they expect the composition of the new government to be announced during a Feb. 18 meeting of Palestinian political factions in Cairo.They said Abbas would set an election date 90 days after the Central Elections Commissions has updated voter records in Gaza, a process that could take several weeks. The initial reconciliation pact envisioned elections in May, but this is no longer realistic, the aides said. Shaath said he believes the voting could take place by July.