Showing posts with label euro zone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label euro zone. Show all posts

Sunday, March 31, 2013

NEWS,31.03.2013



Pope appeals for peace


Pope Francis used his first Easter Sunday address to call for peace in the world and appealed for a diplomatic solution to the crisis on the Korean peninsula.In his first "Urbi et Orbi" (to the city and the world) message, Francis also called for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, an end to the civil war in Syria, and political solutions to conflicts in several African countries.The former Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina, who has made defence of nature an early hallmark of his pontificate, also condemned the "iniquitous exploitation of natural resources" and urged everyone to be "guardians" of creation.Francis delivered his message from the central balcony of St Peter's Basilica - the same spot from where he first appeared to the world as pope after his election on 13 March - to a crowd estimated by the Vatican at at least 250 000 people."Peace in Asia, above all on the Korean peninsula: may disagreements be overcome and a renewed spirit of reconciliation grow," he said, speaking in Italian.State of warNorth Korea said on Saturday it was entering a "state of war" with South Korea. Tensions have been high since the North's new young leader Kim Jong-un ordered a third nuclear weapons test in February, breaching UN sanctions and ignoring warnings from North Korea's sole major ally, China, not to do so.Francis, who has brought a more simple and personal style to the papacy, said the message of Easter is that faith can help people transform their lives by letting "those desert places in our hearts bloom"."How many deserts, even today, do human beings need to cross! Above all, the desert within, when we have no love for God or neighbour, when we fail to realise that we are guardians of all that the creator has given us and continues to give us," he said.Earlier, at a Mass in a square bedecked by more than 40 000 plants and flowers, the pope wore relatively simple white vestments, as opposed to his predecessor Benedict, who preferred more elaborate robes.The huge crowd spilled out of St Peter's Square and into surrounding streets and included many who had come to see a pope they hope could give a new start to a Church that has been marred by scandals involving sexual abuse of children and allegations of corruption."It's a new pope and new beginning," said Tina Hughes, 67, who came to Rome with her family from Nottingham, England to see the pope. "I think he brings something special. He connects with people. I feel good about him."Message of peaceFrancis, who took his name in honour of St Francis of Assisi, who is revered as a symbol of austerity and the importance of the natural world, said:"Peace in the whole world, still divided by greed looking for easy gain, wounded by the selfishness which threatens human life and the family, selfishness that continues in human trafficking, the most extensive form of slavery in this 21st century."Peace to the whole world, torn apart by violence linked to drug trafficking and by the iniquitous exploitation of natural resources! Peace to this our Earth! May the risen Jesus bring comfort to the victims of natural disasters and make us responsible guardians of creation."Easter Sunday, the day Christians believe Jesus was resurrected from the dead three days after his crucifixion, was the culmination of four hectic days of activity for the pope, during which he instituted several novelties.On Holy Thursday, two women were included among the 12 people whose feet he washed and kissed during a traditional ceremony that had previously been open only to men.Francis is still living in the same Vatican guesthouse where he stayed during the conclave that elected him the first non-European pope in 1 300 years, instead of moving into the regal papal apartments in the Vatican's Apostolic Palace.He has also been inviting ordinary people to his morning Mass at the guesthouse, including Vatican street sweepers and gardeners.

North Korea Calls Nuclear Weapons 'The Nation's Life,' Won't Trade Them For 'Billions Of Dollars'


A top North Korean decision-making body issued a pointed warning Sunday, saying that nuclear weapons are "the nation's life" and will not be traded even for "billions of dollars."The comments came in a statement released after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presided over the plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party. The meeting, which set a "new strategic line" calling for building both a stronger economy and nuclear arsenal, comes amid a series of near-daily threats from Pyongyang in recent weeks, including a vow to launch nuclear strikes on the United States and a warning Saturday that the Korean Peninsula was in a "state of war."Pyongyang is angry over annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and a new round of U.N. sanctions that followed its Feb. 12 nuclear test, the country's third. Analysts see a full-scale North Korean attack as unlikely and say the threats are more likely efforts to provoke softer policies toward Pyongyang from a new government in Seoul, to win diplomatic talks with Washington that could get the North more aid, and to solidify the young North Korean leader's image and military credentials at home.North Korea made reference to those outside views in the statement it released through the official Korean Central News Agency following the plenary meeting.North Korea's nuclear weapons are a "treasure" not to be traded for "billions of dollars," the statement said. They "are neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings to be presented to the place of dialogue or be put on the table of negotiations aimed at forcing (Pyongyang) to disarm itself," it said.North Korea's "nuclear armed forces represent the nation's life, which can never be abandoned as long as the imperialists and nuclear threats exist on earth," the statement said.North Korea has called the U.S. nuclear arsenal a threat to its existence since the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula still technically at war. Pyongyang justifies its own nuclear pursuit in large part on that perceived U.S. threat.While analysts call North Korea's threats largely brinkmanship, there is some fear that a localized skirmish might escalate. Seoul has vowed to respond harshly should North Korea provoke its military. Naval skirmishes in disputed Yellow Sea waters off the Korean coast have led to bloody battles several times over the years. Attacks blamed on Pyongyang in 2010 killed 50 South Koreans.The plenary statement also called for strengthening the moribund economy, which Kim has put an emphasis on in his public statements since taking power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in late 2011. The United Nations says two-thirds of the country's 24 million people face regular food shortages.The statement called for diversified foreign trade and investment, and a focus on agriculture, light industry and a "self-reliant nuclear power industry," including a light water reactor. There was also a call for "the development of space science and technology," including more satellite launches. North Korea put a satellite into orbit on a long-range rocket in December. The United Nations called the launch a cover for a banned test of ballistic missile technology and increased sanctions on the North.The central committee is a top decision-making body of the North's ruling Workers' Party. The committee is tasked with organizing and guiding the party's major projects, and its plenary meeting is usually convened once a year, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry. South Korean media said the last plenary session was held in 2010 and that this was the first time Kim Jong Un had presided over the meeting.The White House says the United States is taking North Korea's threats seriously, but has also noted Pyongyang's history of "bellicose rhetoric."On Thursday, U.S. military officials revealed that two B-2 stealth bombers dropped dummy munitions on an uninhabited South Korean island as part of annual defense drills that Pyongyang sees as rehearsals for invasion. Hours later, Kim ordered his generals to put rockets on standby and threatened to strike American targets if provoked.

Markets Sending Unusual Signals

The U.S. equity market had a great finish to a wonderful first three months of 2013. In logging its best first-quarter performance since 1987 (11 percent), the Dow set yet another all-time high. For its part, the S&P surged 10 percent, ending above its previous (2007) record close.The rally reflects slowly-improving economic conditions, relatively robust corporate profitability and anticipation of stronger domestic and foreign inflows into the equity market. Yet this is far from the whole story.Investors need only look at where some other benchmarks ended the quarter to get a feel for the unprecedented and artificial nature of today's capital markets. Few would have predicted that the impressive equity performance would be accompanied by a 10-year U.S. Treasury rate as low as 1.85 percent, a 10-year German government bond (bund) rate as low as 1.29 percent and gold as high as $1,596 an ounce. Think of this as the markets' way to signal to investors some key issues for the quarters ahead. The persistence of this unusual combination of bond, equity and gold prices speaks to how central banks around the world and the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in particular have fueled risk taking in the face of rather sluggish economic growth, recurrent concerns about European disruptions and lingering worries about geopolitical risk.In the weeks ahead, we will get a sense of central banks' willingness to continue to support asset prices pending a stronger and more comprehensive recovery in economic growth.I suspect that, notwithstanding some internal opposition, they will signal continued resolve as a way to enhance via the wealth effect and animal spirits prospects for growth and jobs. Indeed, the willingness call is a relatively easy one. The much more difficult call relates to the sustained ability of central banks to maintain control over the range of competing and conflicting forces.Investors are unable to refer to historical precedents or reliable models to predict confidently what lies ahead as:

1. The scope and scale of central bank policy experimentation are already unprecedented.
2. The imposition of capital control by a euro zone country (as occurred this week in Cyprus) was deemed so remote as to be essentially unthinkable.
3. And particularly with what is happening in Afghanistan, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria even the most experienced analysts struggle with some of the world's most volatile areas.

Looking ahead, the validation of prices in risk markets needs the fuller engagement of healthy balance sheets and more robust economic activity, including what my PIMCO colleague Saumil Parikh refers to as the transition from "assisted growth" to "genuine growth."While there is reason to expect that this will continue to occur gradually in the U.S. absent political/policy disruption), it will unfortunately not happen in Europe for quite a while. Effective central bank intervention remains critical to the well being of the equity market in the quarters ahead. Actions need to be strong enough to offset Congressional dysfunction and headwinds from abroad. But if too strong, they would damage for a long time the functioning and integrity of markets.Central banks did a good job in striking this balance in the first quarter. The hope, going forward, is that they remain not just willing to do so but also able.

Enlist the Enlightened Super-Rich!


You often hear progressives bemoaning the massive war chests of the right-wing funders, particularly after their successful backing of the boisterous Tea Party movement. But a common mistake made by the left is not adequately focusing on cultivating their own likeminded super-rich to provide the necessary resources to advance their own noble causes. It would only take a few enlightened mega-billionaires to provide the major funding needed to shift power from the few to the many and to get the ball rolling on long overdue, fundamental solutions to our country's biggest problems.History shows a precedent. The greatest civil rights struggles in American history were bankrolled by wealthy, enlightened benefactors. Gerrit Smith, Joshua Bowen Smith, Arthur and Lewis Tappan and James G. Birney were some of those who funded the abolitionist movement using their resources to create organizations like the Anti-Slavery Society and the Liberty Party, an independent, antislavery third party. Louisine Havemeyer, Carrie Chapman Catt, Alva Belmont and Julia Ward Howe contributed their finances to the women's suffrage movement. Catt, the wife of a wealthy engineer, contributed a million dollars (about $25 million today) to send out information to newspapers and magazines and to mobilize activists during the final push to gain the women's right to vote in 1917-1918.In 2013, we need to tap into that fervor which led to such great progressive victories. With adequate resources, it is possible to build powerful new constituencies to make government open and honest and reflective of the prevailing public sentiment.The difference between charity and justice must be made clear. Soup kitchens are a vital and humane charity. Justice, on the other hand, looks to the root of the problem, and asks why the wealthiest places on Earth, such as the United States, have any starving or hungry people at all. It's true that many wealthy people donate substantially to charity presently, most philanthropy does go to charity. But by directing billions of dollars to preventing deprivation in the first place, the impact could be much greater.A society with more justice needs less charity. This practical approach has been proven again and again in the areas of public health and safety. Think of seat belts, clean air and safe vaccines. Furthermore, more resources are needed in the much neglected area of corporate accountability. Wall Street and other commercial interests have met too little resistance to their wrongdoings for too long. The public sentiment is there, what is needed is the fuel.A vast frontier of opportunity exists for our political economy to serve the needs of the many, especially our children, and not just the overpaid executives of massive corporations. Justice needs financial resources to spread its embrace. Enlightened, senior super-rich have the power to give our citizens much needed organization in communities around the country. As an example, back in 2003, hundreds of retired military, diplomatic and national security officials publically and separately challenged George W. Bush's drumbeats to invade Iraq. The commercial media and Congress even the Democratic leadership refused to hear these numerous experienced and credible antiwar voices.What difference could a wealthy backer have made to the antiwar movement? Look to George Soros, the wealthy philanthropist and progressive-cause supporter. During the lead up to the second Iraq War, his voice was one amongst the opposition. He accurately predicted the quagmire the United States would find itself in as a result of its march to war. His criticism received some media coverage, but like the others, it wasn't sustained enough to counter the months-long propaganda campaign of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld. What Soros failed to do was devote some of his considerable resources to creating an equal-footed coalition to oppose the warmongers. Soros could have used that nucleus of three hundred or so retired officials and expanded upon it with a backup secretariat that coordinated a mass media campaign and placed full-time organizers in congressional districts to directly challenge senators and representatives to assert their constitutional duties. To Soros, the $200 million cost of such a campaign would have been a small part of his annual income. The potential payoff could have saved billions of dollars, millions of lives and injuries and avoided the sociocide of Iraq.My book, "Only the Super-rich Can Save Us!" laid out a blueprint for such a movement by the enlightened super-rich that could actually happen. Using 17 real-life wealthy Americans in fictional roles, led by Warren Buffett, a massive, well-funded campaign is launched to galvanize millions of Americans to organize themselves and restore their problem-solving sovereignty over their government and the massive corporations that have co-opted too much power and influence in Washington, D.C. for too long.One thing is clear -- we can't enact great change without making a serious commitment to civic engagement. Such a commitment can be jumpstarted right now by a few of our wealthiest citizens -- only they have the immediate resources necessary to turn the tide against the corporate oligarchy. Who among them will step forward?

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

NEWS,12.12.2012



UN condemns North Korean missile launch


The UN Security Council has condemned North Korea's missile launch and will continue discussions on how to respond to Pyongyang's violations of a UN ban on North Korean ballistic missile development, the council president said."Members of the Security Council condemned this launch, which is a clear violation of Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874," Moroccan UN Ambassador Mohammed Loulichki, president of the Security Council this month, told reporters."Members of the Security Council will continue consultations on an appropriate response," he said after a closed-door meeting on the North Korean missile launch.Loulichki recalled the council's April 2012 warning to Pyongyang that the council would act in the event of any further rocket launches.UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also strongly condemned the launch as a "provocative act" in breach of Security Council resolutions banning Pyongyang from developing ballistic-missile and nuclear technology.Several council diplomats said they hoped the 15-nation body would consider adopting a binding resolution, possibly expanding existing UN sanctions against Pyongyang."We support a strong reaction by the council, it's a clear violation," French UN Ambassador Gerard Araud told reporters before the council meeting. "But we have to see what our friends want.""We do consider it logical to sooner or later have a resolution," he added.British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant echoed that sentiment: "In our view (the council) should react, it should react quickly, and it should react strongly to this provocation."A senior Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity that the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea were among those who would like to see UN sanctions expanded.That could include adding more entities to the UN blacklist, banning travel and freezing assets of individual North Korean officials and tightening the cargo-inspection regime.Whether or not the council can agree a resolution - with or without expanding the sanctions will depend largely on China and its diplomatic ally on the Security Council, Russia. Both nations have veto powers and tend to support each other and vote the same way on issues important to either of them.China traditionally acts as the protector of neighbouring North Korea on the Security Council."Exactly what the Chinese will be prepared to accept in form and substance is not yet clear," the diplomat said. He hoped they could have a resolution agreed by the end of next week.North Korea successfully launched a rocket on Wednesday, boosting the credentials of its youthful new leader, Kim Jong-un, who took power a year ago, and stepping up the threat the isolated and impoverished state poses to opponents.The rocket, which North Korea says put a weather satellite into orbit, has been labelled by the United States, South Korea and Japan as a test of technology that could one day deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting targets as far away as the continental United States.It was Japan that first appealed to the Security Council to take up the issue of North Korea's missile launch.Ban, a former South Korean foreign minister, expressed concern that the launch could negatively impact prospects for peace and security in the region.A statement issued by his office said the launch was "a clear violation of Security Council resolution 1874, in which the Council demanded that the DPRK not conduct any launch using ballistic-missile technology."The statement said Ban had urged North Korea's leaders not to launch a missile but "instead to build confidence with its neighbours while taking steps to improve the lives of its people.""The Secretary General is concerned about the negative consequences that this provocative act may have on peace and stability in the region," the statement said, adding that Ban was in touch with "concerned" governments.North Korea followed what it said was a similar successful launch in 2009 with a nuclear test that prompted the UN Security Council to stiffen sanctions that it originally imposed in 2006 after Pyongyang's first nuclear test.

Euro zone recovery hopes fade further into 2013


Chances of a recovery for the euro zone economy have faded further into 2013, according to a poll of economists who say the recession has deepened over the last three months. Huge questions over the health of some of the region's biggest economies make any kind of major rebound for the euro zone extremely unlikely next year. That may have to wait until 2014, and quite possibly later. The currency union will see no better than stagnation early next year, before finally achieving paltry growth of around 0.2% in the second quarter, today's poll of more than 70 economists showed.The outlook represents a new low since started polling on the 2013 outlook in January. No economist in the survey now believes the euro zone economy grew in the current quarter.Overall, economists expect a full year average growth rate of zero for next year.The region as a whole is reliant on Germany as the biggest driver of economic growth, and the signs from there have been ominous."Key German surveys have shown few signs of recovery in Q4 so far and industrial production collapsed by 2.6% in October," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, in a research note."Hence the upturn is further away than seemed to be the case and we have slashed our 2013 euro area GDP forecast to -0.4% from 0.3% previously."Economists now believe the economy has shrunk this quarter by 0.3% rather than the 0.2% forecast last month, which would mean the recession has deepened from the 0.1% decline reported for the third quarter.Despite a clear consensus on the poor health of the economy, respondents were split right down the middle over what else the European Central Bank will do about it, if anything.Thirty-nine economists think it will hold its main refinancing rate at its current record low of 0.75% through the first quarter of next year, while 38 believe the ECB will cut it to 0.5%.That analysts are so divided is little wonder as the ECB's Governing Council members are similarly split."At least one member of the Governing Council has voted for a rate cut, which ECB President Mario Draghi said could happen if the outlook deteriorates further," said Azad Zangana, economist at Schroders, who thinks the ECB is more likely to stay on hold.Whatever the ECB eventually decides to do, inflation looks unlikely to stand in its way.The poll showed inflation falling beneath the bank's 2% target ceiling in the second quarter next year, where it looks set to stay through to midway next year.Economists put only a median 25% chance on Greece leaving the euro zone next year, echoing the findings of an October poll which found that just eight of 34 fund managers foresaw such an event.

IEA sees sluggish oil demand in 2013


Global oil demand will be sluggish throughout 2013 as economic expansion remains tepid and oil supply levels comfortable, which could alleviate oil price pressures on consumers, the West's energy agency said on Wednesday."Global demand growth is expected to stay relatively sluggish through 2013, based on the continued assumption of tepid global economic expansion," the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report.It forecast global oil demand growth for 2013 at 865 000 barrels per day, 110 000 bpd higher than in its previous report, taking consumption to an average of 90.5 million bpd.On the supply front, the IEA said spectacular growth in US production on the back of a boom in shale oil will be one of the top developments for the market in 2013.The United States will contribute around two thirds of an aggregate increase of 890 000 bpd in non-OPEC output in 2013, for  a total of 54.2 million bpd, IEA said."If confirmed, this would be the fourth-largest annual growth for nonOPEC supplies in the last decade. In fact, growth could exceed expectations in the US if prices remain high and if producers of light tight oil are able to find economic transport options for their incremental barrels," it said.The IEA also said its estimate of demand for OPEC oil was unchanged for 2013 at 29.9 million bpd, much lower than the group's current production of 31.22 million in November.It said, however, that it did not expect OPEC ministers, who were meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, to decide on any production cuts but that they would probably roll over their current 30 million bpd target, given relatively robust oil prices."Indeed, Brent futures prices are on track to surpass 2011 record levels this year, buoyed by heightened political risks in key producing countries, both in OPEC and nonOPEC countries," it said.The IEA said it believed Iranian production had edged lower in November, down 20 000 bpd to 2.70 million bpd, and that preliminary shipping data indicated volumes may fall further in December due to international sanctions.Shipments of Iranian crude, based on arrival data, fell to multi-year lows of 1.07 million bpd in September but recovered to 1.3 million in November as reduced oil buying from China and India was offset by a rise in purchases from Malaysia, Taiwan and the UAE, the IEA said."Iranian crude exports are expected to turn lower next month and into the New Year - reaching a level closer to 1 million bpd - as EU and Asian countries reduce further their crude imports from Iran in order to secure continued access to the US financial system," it said.The IEA expected top global exporter Saudi Arabia to cut shipments in coming months due to increased demand for crude supplies at its domestic and international refinery operations.It said it believed Saudi Arabia's output edged higher in November, by 100 000 bpd to 9.9 million, significantly higher than data given by Saudi Arabia to OPEC earlier this week showing output of 9.49 million.The IEA said that, although on the surface the oil market appeared calm, recent data showed radical structural changes including an apparent acceleration in the eastward shift of global oil demand growth.In the third quarter of 2012, European oil demand went through its steepest year-on-year contraction since the 2008/2009 financial crisis, while Asian oil demand remained robust.Oil demand by the European members of the OECD plummeted by 895 000 bpd in the quarter to 13.8 million bpd due to a combination of near record product prices and a weak economy."The last time European oil demand nosedived as it did this summer, international oil prices had been in freefall. Not only are crude prices holding up, but European consumer prices hovered near record highs this summer, buoyed in part by a weakening currency. This was likely part of the reason for the dip in demand," the IEA said.It also noted that five of the world's top 10 oil consumers were now nonOECD countries. While the United States still leads the top 10, Brazil, Russia, India, China and Saudi Arabia together took five of the next six spots, the IEA said.


Eurozone recovery hopes fade further


Chances of a recovery for the eurozone economy have faded further into 2013, according to a poll of economists who say the recession has deepened over the last three monthsHuge questions over the health of some of the region's biggest economies make any kind of major rebound for the eurozone extremely unlikely next year. That may have to wait until 2014, and quite possibly later.The currency union will see no better than stagnation early next year, before finally achieving paltry growth of around 0.2% in the second quarter, Wednesday's poll of more than 70 economists showed.The outlook represents a new low since started polling on the 2013 outlook in January. No economist in the survey now believes the eurozone economy grew in the current quarter.Overall, economists expect a full year average growth rate of zero for next year.The region as a whole is reliant on Germany as the biggest driver of economic growth, and the signs from there have been ominous."Key German surveys have shown few signs of recovery in Q4 so far and industrial production collapsed by 2.6% in October," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, in a research note."Hence the upturn is further away than seemed to be the case and we have slashed our 2013 euro area GDP forecast to -0.4% from +0.3% previously."Economists now believe the economy has shrunk this quarter by 0.3% rather than the 0.2% forecast last month, which would mean the recession has deepened from the 0.1% decline reported for the third quarter Despite a clear consensus on the poor health of the economy, respondents were split right down the middle over what else the European Central Bank will do about it, if anything. Thirty-nine economists think it will hold its main refinancing rate at its current record low of 0.75% through the first quarter of next year, while 38 believe the ECB will cut it to 0.5%.That analysts are so divided is little wonder as the ECB's Governing Council members are similarly split."At least one member of the Governing Council has voted for a rate cut, which ECB President Mario Draghi said could happen if the outlook deteriorates further," said Azad Zangana, economist at Schroders, who thinks the ECB is more likely to stay on hold. Whatever the ECB eventually decides to do, inflation looks unlikely to stand in its way.The poll showed inflation falling beneath the bank's 2% target ceiling in the second quarter next year, where it looks set to stay through to midway next year.Economists put only a median 25% chance on Greece leaving the eurozone next year, echoing the findings of an October poll which found that just eight of 34 fund managers foresaw such an event


China's drugs market to grow by $165bn


Drug companies are spending record amounts on acquisitions in emerging markets, with China the most attractive target nation, reflecting sharply rising sales of western medicines in the country.Overall expenditure by both overseas and domestic pharmaceutical companies in emerging markets has reached $20bn so far this year, up two-thirds on the 2011 total, according Thomson data. An analysis of year-to-date deals by law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, published on Wednesday, showed China accounted for $6.8bn of the total.Spending by overseas acquirers alone in key growth markets is running at $3.5bn so far this year, an increase of 95% on 2011.The sharp upturn in emerging market activity contrasts with an overall decline in pharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions (M&A) worldwide to $146bn from $225bn last year.After a flurry in 2011, which took deal-making back to pre-recession levels, drug companies been wary of hitting the takeover trail in a big way in Western markets in 2012."Instead, pharma investments in fast growing economies are gathering steam," said Freshfields corporate partner Jennifer Bethlehem. "While M&A is an expensive remedy, 'pharmerging' markets are obvious investment choices for cash-rich drug companies." Emerging markets are expected to account for the bulk of growth in the global pharmaceuticals market in the next few years, as sales in Europe and United States slow due to a wave of patent expiries. China's drugs market, in particular, is forecast to grow by 15-18% annually to between $155bn and $165bn by 2016, making it the world's second-largest market after the US, according to consultancy IMS Health.Freshfields said it expected investment in China's pharmaceuticals sector to pick up further in 2013, following a smooth transition of political leadership in the country.



Mild pick-up for US economy next year


The US economy is expected to remain sluggish next year, despite widespread expectations for more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday, a poll showed. Most consensus forecasts for the first half of 2013 were downgraded to their lowest since began polling for this period more than a year ago. The forecast for the current quarter was slashed again.That underscores a very fragile world economic outlook, given sharp slowdowns in many big emerging economies such as Brazil and India and only a tentative sign of re-emergence of China's economic growth engine."Too much of the global economy is stumbling to support export demand," said Carl Riccadonna, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank. "It's Europe, it's recession in Japan, (and) softer growth out of China for much of the year.""US exports are likely to pose a drag on growth in the current quarter, which is something we haven't see since the collapse in trade during the recession," he said.Much depends on whether politicians can sort out a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff", a series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts next year. Uncertainty around that has already damaged business confidence and curtailed hiring.Indeed, the poll showed growth is expected to have slowed to just 1.2% on an annualised basis in the quarter that ends this month, down sharply from 1.6% in the November poll, and well below the economy's potential.Weak exports have dragged on growth, not to mention superstorm Sandy, which hit the US east coast in October and shut down most of New York City and surrounding area for days, damaging business and infrastructure.The outlook for all of 2013 has been chopped to 1.9%, far below the Fed's September prediction of 2.5%-3.0%, and also the lowest consensus for 2013 polled so far this year.Despite a third round of bond purchases from the Federal Reserve to boost the jobs market, employment expectations remained tepid. The consensus for average monthly non-farm payrolls growth was mostly unchanged at 127 000 for the first three months of 2013.That comes despite a strong majority of forecasters, 47 of 51, expecting the central bank to buy more US Treasuries when its Operation Twist program expires at the end of December.The Fed is expected to buy $45bn of Treasuries every month in addition to the already-announced purchases of $40bn every month in mortgage-backed securities. But these new purchases will further expand the Fed's balance sheet. The poll also showed the Fed is likely to continue its monetary stimulus for at least a year, making for an additional $1 trillion of purchases. The Fed has bought bonds worth $2.3 trillion in two prior rounds of quantitative easing.A majority, 31 of 49, also expect the Fed eventually to adopt numerical thresholds for inflation and unemployment, similar to results of a survey taken last week.So far, markets have been sanguine that Washington will avoid the fiscal cliff. US stocks have erased all their losses after the November 6 presidential election and the S&P 500 is up almost 1% so far this month.But signs from lawmakers have been mixed with nothing concrete to indicate a deal will be reached by the end-of-the-year deadline.US House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner offered no signs of progress on Tuesday but said he remains hopeful that both sides would reach an agreement.But Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid said it would be difficult to get a deal before Christmas.If a deal is not reached it could lead to $600bn being sucked out of the economy in 2013 in what is essentially a self activating austerity program built into current law.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

NEWS,06.12.2012



Obama tough on fiscal cliff


President Barack Obama and Republicans crept closer to negotiations on avoiding a recession-threatening package of automatic tax increases and spending cuts, but the White House reaffirmed it would not budge on demands for higher taxes on the wealthy.With a new AP-GFK poll showing clear support for Obama's position and dwindling backing for cutting government services to curb the climbing US budget deficit, the president and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner spoke by telephone on Wednesday for the first time in days about a way to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff which would occur on 1 January.The telephone contact, disclosed by a Boehner spokesperson, raises the possibility that negotiations could soon resume on heading off what some economists warn could be a serious blow to an economy still recovering from the Great Recession.So far, Republican leaders have said they would only agree to higher tax revenues by closing loopholes or reducing tax breaks, not by raising rates as demanded by Obama. The opposition has struggled, however, to remain united and find its footing in talks with a president emboldened by his November election victory and unified congressional Democrats.While insisting that tax rates go up on the top 2% of American earners, Obama, too, has called for government spending cuts but by less than the Republicans want.Obama, addressing business leaders on Wednesday, said the White House and Republicans could reach an agreement "in about a week" if the Republicans drop their opposition to raising taxes on families making more than $250 000 a year."If we can get the leadership on the Republican side to take that framework, to acknowledge that reality, than the numbers actually aren't that far apart," Obama said.Administration officials are hardening their warnings that Obama is willing to risk going over the cliff. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that the Obama administration is "absolutely" ready for that risky step.Geithner said in an interview on CNBC the administration thinks budget deficits are so large that they can't be closed without boosting tax rates on the wealthiest 2% of Americans. He also said that the administration would reject a budget plan that didn't include an increase in the federal borrowing limit, which is expected to expire early next year. However, Geithner said he still thinks progress is being made in the budget negotiations and that the outlines of an agreement are becoming clearer."They look inevitable," he said.Speaking to business chieftains Wednesday, Obama warned Republicans not to inject the threat of a government default into negotiations over the fiscal cliff as a way of extracting concessions on spending cuts. "It's not a game I will play," he said, recalling the brinkmanship of last year in which a budget standoff pushed the Treasury to the edge of a first-ever default and led to a downgrade of the US credit rating.While saying he is willing to accept some reductions in government programs such as Medicare, the highly popular federal health insurance programmes for older Americans, he flatly rejects Republican contentions that they can raise about $800bn in additional government revenue over a decade by closing loopholes and narrowing tax deductions on the wealthy, rather than raising income tax rates. The opposition argues increasing rates from 35% to 39.6% as Obama wants would impose a particularly harmful impact on the economy and job creation at a time when the country is still struggling to recover fully from the deepest recession in decades.The White House has ridiculed the Republican plan as "magic beans and fairy dust."

 

US jobless claims fall


The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a third straight week last week, dropping back to their pre-superstorm Sandy range.Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 25 000 to a seasonally adjusted 370 000 in the week ended Dec. 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday.Last week's drop brought them back to their pre-storm's 360 000-370 000 range, which economists said suggested there had been no marked weakening in the labor market. They had forecast claims falling to 380 0000."We could reasonably assume there is no underlying deterioration or acceleration in the labor market before the storm," said Pierre Ellis, senior global economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York."We should still have a relative poor payroll reading tomorrow, but we should have some confidence that payrolls would bounce back in December."The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 2 250 to 408 000, reflecting the impact of the late October storm. That was the highest level since October last year.Last week's claims data has no bearing on Friday's employment report. Economists estimate the monster storm, which slammed into the densely populated East Coast, could subtract between 25 000 and 75 000 jobs from November's nonfarm payrolls.The closely watched report is expected to show payrolls increased only 93 000 last month after advancing 171 000 job in October, according to survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.9%.A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data, but noted claims tend to post their largest percentage increase in the last week of November, catching up from the Thanksgiving holiday.In addition, seasonal layoffs in sectors like construction, start picking up this time of the year. This will make claims a less useful gauge of labor market conditions in the weeks ahead.A separate report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed planned layoffs at US firms rose nearly 20% in November to their highest level in six months.The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 100 000 to 3.21 million in the week ended Nov. 24.

 

ECB cuts euro-zone growth for 2013


The euro weakened against the US dollar and the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro-zone was expected to stay in recession next year, reversing an earlier forecast for a recovery in economic growth.The downgrade to the outlook for gross domestic product came as the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.75%.Draghi said that there had been wide discussion on interest rates within the ECB, which taken together with the weaker growth track has stoked speculation the central bank may cut rates next year.The euro fell 0.9% to $1.2954 and dropped 1% to 106.64 yen after the statement."By the second part of the next year, we should see the beginning of a recovery" in Europe, as the global economy picks up pace, Draghi said.The ECB forecasts the region's economy will shrink 0.5% this year, worse that the 0.4% contraction it forecast three months ago. The economy would shrink 0.3% in 2013, compared to an earlier forecast of 0.5% growth.The ECB lowered its forecast for inflation in 2013 to 1.6% from 1.9% and said inflation would be even weaker in 2014 at 1.4%. Separately, the Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low 0.5% while maintaining its quantitative easing programme.Euro-zone GDP shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, the European Union confirmed, following a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter."The underlying reason for euro weakness is still there, and the ECB's warnings of continued weakness over the next year could be the catalyst for a continued euro drop," Neal Gilbert, market strategist at GFT. The ECB's first monetary policy decision in 2013 "could include another cut in interest rates."Equity markets were broadly stronger across Europe, though sentiment was driven by optimism the US Congress will find a way to avert the fiscal cliff which could plunge the US economy back into recession next year.Germany's DAX 30 rallied 1.1% to 7,534.54, the highest since January 2008, as figures showed factory orders in Europe's biggest economy jumped 3.9%, seasonally adjusted, in October. The Economy Ministry revised the previous month's decline to 2.4% from 3.3%.France's CAC 40 rose 0.3%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7% to its highest close since May last year.Cracks are showing within Republican ranks over hiking taxes for the wealthiest Americans, a move that House Speaker and senior Republican John Boehner has refused to budge on in negotiations with President Barack Obama.Some 80 members of the US Congress, including Republicans and Democrats, have signed a letter calling for an exploration of "all options" in to end a deadlock between Obama and Boehner, Bloomberg reported, citing a spokeswoman for Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, a republican who has signed the letter.US stocks were little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15 and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 0.025. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%.

ECB depicts bleak 2013


The euro zone economy is likely to shrink next year as it has in 2012, the European Central Bank predicted on Thursday, sharply downgrading its outlook after holding interest rates at a record low 0.75%.The bank's new staff projections put gross domestic product in a range of falling by 0.9% to growing by just 0.3% next year, suggesting contraction is far more likely than not. ECB President Mario Draghi said downside risks prevailed.In September, the ECB's staff had pencilled in a significantly higher range of -0.4% to +1.4% for the euro area economy."Economic weakness in the euro zone is expected to extend into next year," Draghi told a news conference after the central bank's monthly policy meeting."Later in 2013, economic activity should gradually recover as global demand strengthens and our accommodative monetary policy stance and significantly improved financial market confidence work their way through the economy."The Governing Council's decision to leave its main interest rate unchanged matched economists' expectations, which also showed opinion was split down the middle over the chances of a cut early next year."The Governing Council continues to see downside risk to the economic outlook for the euro area," Draghi said. "These are mainly related to uncertainties about the resolution of sovereign debt and governance issues in the euro area."A political impasse over the United States' fiscal policy, which could presage steep tax hikes and budget cuts if a deal is not reached, could also dampen sentiment for longer, he said.The level of uncertainty was reflected in the ECB's first attempt to forecast 2014, for which it pencilled in growth of between 0.2% and 2.2%. The midpoint forecast for 2012 was pushed slightly lower to -0.5%.Draghi said rates were not lowered because of high indirect taxes and increasing energy prices in some euro zone countries."There was a wide discussion ... but the consensus was to leave the rates unchanged," he said, a hint that opinions differed about what course to take.He also said the policymakers discussed setting a negative rate on the ECB's deposit facility in an attempt to encourage banks not to hoard cash at the ECB but lend it into the real economy instead.German Bund futures rose in response to that and the euro came under pressure.The ECB will also continue to supply eurozone banks with all the liquidity they ask for in the central bank's refinancing operations at least until July 2013, Draghi said.While financial markets have calmed since the European Union and the International Monetary Fund put in place further steps to help Greece, and the ECB promised to do what it takes to preserve the euro, the bloc's economy has sunk into recession from which it shows few signs of emerging soon.An inflation forecast of 1.1% to 2.1% next year compared with the ECB's target of close to but below two percent there would appear to be plenty of room to cut rates further.But recent policymakers' comments have suggested the ECB is unlikely to do so in the near future and the central bank is wary of taking any action that could see the bloc's governments soft-pedal on budget consolidation efforts.Also, market interest rates vary greatly across the 17-country bloc and the ECB is focused on fixing what it calls the 'transmission mechanism' for passing on its rates to all corners of the euro area before contemplating lowering official borrowing costs.The most obvious mechanism for doing that would be the ECB's yet to be used new bond-buying scheme, which could drive down government borrowing costs.The ECB has not yet bought any sovereign debt under its new programme dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) because Spain, which is seen as most likely to become the first country to make use of the new support measure, has not yet fulfilled the precondition of asking for help from the euro zone's rescue fund.Pressure for the ECB to intervene is building.Spain auctioned fewer bonds than it hoped to on Wednesday as investors fret over the timing of an expected aid request by the government.



Europe needs to tackle tax avoidance


European governments should coordinate their efforts to root out tax avoidance costing them around €1 trillion every year, the European Union's executive body said on Thursday.The European Commission said member states need to share information better, introduce an EU-wide tax identification number and devise common criteria for blacklisting tax havens.The proposals were part of an action plan detailed by EU taxation policy commissioner Algirdas Semeta on Thursday to deal with inventive and increasingly common tactics used by big companies and others to reduce their tax bills."Tax competition must not open the door to fraudulent or abusive tax practices," Semeta said. A new framework would result in profits being taxed in the state where the "actual economic activity takes place".The Commission intends to present its action plan to EU finance ministers next year but is not aiming to persuade member states to pass binding legislation.The impetus to deal with the problem has grown as several European countries try to increase tax revenues and cut spending to rein in heavy debts.A number of high-profile examples have hit headlines in recent months, including one involving coffee chain Starbucks .A recent examination of Starbucks' accounts showed that the company had reported 13 years of losses at its UK unit, even as it told investors the operation was profitable and among the best performing of its overseas markets.The chain's UK unit paid no corporation tax on its income in the last three years for which figures were available.Starbucks said on Thursday it could pay up to $32.18m more in tax as it announced plans to change its accounting practices, surrendering to criticism from lawmakers, campaigners and the media.Examination of Amazon's accounts showed how the world's biggest online retailer had minimised corporate taxes by setting up in Luxembourg, and channelling sales through its units there.In effect, Amazon used inter-company payments to form a tax shield for the group, behind which it has accumulated $2bn to help finance its expansion. Amazon declined to answer questions about its tax affairs.BusinessEurope, the lobby group that represents companies, said it supported the Commission's initiative, but also called for a simplification of the tax system across European Union.Semeta suggested part of the blame lay on tax regimes "artificially designed to steal tax bases or encourage aggressive tax planning".He rounded on non-EU state Switzerland as one country whose policies encourage aggressive tax avoidance."I can openly say that we consider that several tax regimes in Switzerland, according to our estimations, do not meet criteria of the code of conduct on business taxation," he said.



Prada shrugs off slowdown concerns


Italian fashion house Prada SpA beat forecasts with a 30% rise in third-quarter net profit, shrugging off concerns about a slowdown in demand for luxury goods.The Hong Kong-listed company, popular for its coloured Miu Miu dresses and leather handbags and shoes, has outperformed its sector so far, helped by its retail expansion in new markets."The group has continued to grow at a rate that has exceeded our expectations but great care has still been paid to cost control and working capital management," Patrizio Bertelli, chief executive, said in a statement.The company, led by trend-setting designer Miuccia Prada and her husband Bertelli, posted a net profit of €122.1m in the third quarter, boosted by wealthy spenders from Asia and other emerging markets.That compares with an average forecast from analysts SmartEstimate of €110m and with €93.6m a year earlier.Wealthy tourists from Asia and Russia have shielded the fashion house from a sluggish growth in Italy, being felt by domestic peers such as Tod's.Milan-based Prada also says it still has plenty of room for growth because it has a limited presence in fast-growing markets including Asia, compared with rivals such as LVMH and Salvatore Ferragamo.Prada shares have soared 80% so far this year, outperforming the benchmark Hang Seng Index which is up 21% over the same period.Global sales of luxury goods are expected to grow 5% this year, stripping out currency effects, from 13% last year, according to a report by Bain and Italy's luxury goods trade body Altagamma.


Brazil launches port investment program


Brazil's government launched a $26bn port investment program on Thursday to reduce the high costs and notorious delays in shipping goods in and out of the major commodities exporter.The plan to modernize port infrastructure announced by President Dilma Rousseff seeks to increase investment in Brazil's ports through partnership with private companies.The bidding process that will open next year will favor tenders that offer the lowest tariffs for handling the greatest volume of cargo, moving away from a prior model of granting concessions to the highest bidder."Our objective is the greatest movement of cargo possible at the lowest possible cost," Rousseff said."We want to increase the efficiency of Brazilian ports with this partnership, which will make our exports more competitive and increase production," she said. "We want an explosion of investment through this partnership with the private sector."The bulk of the investment would be made between 2014 and 2017, Ports Minister Leonidas Cristino said.The ports slated for modernization include Santos, which is Latin America's largest port by value of goods moved, Rio de Janeiro, Paranagua, Porto Alegre, Espiritu Santo, Itaqui, Pecem and Suape. Rousseff said Brazil's ports handle 95% of Brazil's foreign trade. The country is the world's top exporter of coffee sugar and citrus and a major grains exporter. It is also one of the world's biggest exporters of iron ore used to make steel.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

NEWS,05.12.2012



Euro zone downturn eases slightly


The euro zone's economic slump was a little less pronounced in November than previously thought, although there are few signs the region will emerge from recession any time soon, business surveys showed on Wednesday. Markit's Euro zone Composite PMI, which gauges business activity across thousands of companies, rose in November to 46.5 from 45.7 in October markedly higher than the preliminary reading of 45.8 reported 10 days ago.The PMI has lingered below the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for all but one of the last 15 months and with no economic stimulus in the pipeline, there is little reason to expect a rebound.Survey compiler Markit said there was no single reason for the upward revision to the PMI from the mid-month flash estimate, which could simply be down to a stronger end to the month for businesses.France, Spain and Italy were the biggest drags on the euro zone economy through last month. Germany performed better. Overall, however, the survey still pointed to a deepening recession this quarter, following the economy's 0.1% decline in the third quarter."The (upward revision) is good news as it might be a sign that activity has bottomed out in Q3," said Annalisa Piazza, economist at Newedge Strategy in London."Nevertheless, we see no signs of improvement that suggest that the EMU economy might recover any time soon. Further contraction in GDP remains our baseline scenario at least until Q1 2013."The euro hit a seven-week high on Wednesday and European shares continued their recent rally, although that was mainly due to comments from China's new leader which boosted expectations for global growth. Monday's manufacturing PMI's told a similar story to Wednesday's composite and services numbers. The composite new orders index saw a sharp upward revision to 45.0 from 44.1 in the preliminary data but still showed company order books declining at a fast rate.Service sector businesses like banks, hotels and restaurants that account for the vast bulk of the euro zone's private economy, also saw activity decline at the slowest rate in three months.The final services PMI was revised up a full point from the flash reading, to 46.7 and compared with October's 46.0.Prices charged for products fell again in November, at a similar rate to the previous month, giving further weight to the view that inflation would pose little impediment to the European Central Bank if it wanted to further ease monetary policy.The ECB ends its monthly policy meeting on Thursday. While only a handful of economists polled by Reuters think it will cut interest rates at the meeting, overall they are split on whether the bank will do so early next year. "The improvement in the services sector purchasing managers' survey further reduces the likelihood that the ECB will cut interest rates on Thursday," said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight."Nevertheless, we believe a cut from 0.75% to 0.50% remains likely in the early months of 2013 as the euro zone continues to struggle to grow and underlying inflationary pressures are muted."

EU imposes record cartel fine on Philips


The European Commission imposed the biggest antitrust penalty in its history on Wednesday, fining six firms including Philips, LG Electronics and Samsung SDI a total of €1.47bn for running two cartels for nearly a decade.The Commission said executives from the European and Asian companies met until six years ago to fix prices and divide up markets for TV and computer monitor cathode-ray tubes, technology now mostly made obsolete by flat screens.Between 1996 and 2006 they met in Paris, Rome, Amsterdam and in Asia for "green meetings", so-called because they often ended in a round of golf.The EU antitrust regulator imposed the biggest penalty, of €313.4m, on Dutch-based Philips for its role in fixing prices and carving up markets. LG Electronics of South Korea must pay the second biggest fine, set at €295.6m."These cartels for cathode-ray tubes are 'textbook cartels': they feature all the worst kinds of anti-competitive behaviour that are strictly forbidden to companies doing business in Europe," EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said in a statement. Taiwanese firm Chunghwa Picture Tubes blew the whistle on the cartels in TV and computer monitors and escaped a fine.The Commission also fined Panasonic €157.5m, Samsung SDI €150.8m, Toshiba €28m, and French company Technicolor €38.6m.A joint venture between Philips and LG Electronics was penalised €391.9m while two Panasonic joint ventures were also sanctioned. Almunia said the violations were especially harmful for consumers, as cathode-ray tubes accounted for 50% to 70% of the price of a screen.Cathode-ray tubes have largely been replaced by more advanced display technologies such as liquid-crystal display (LCD), plasma display and organic light-emitting diodes. Philips said it would make a provision of €509m in the fourth quarter for the fine, but Chief Executive Frans van Houten also said the group would challenge what he called the disproportionate and unjustified penalty. Philips sold off the business which committed the infringement in 2001.ING analyst Fabian Smeets told ANP-Reuters that the sanction was significant, but expected. Philips' shares were down 0.2% to €20 in mid-session, erasing earlier gains after news of the fines. Technicolor said the fine, which will be booked as an exceptional item in its second-half accounts, would not affect its 2012 earnings and free cash flow targets.Until now, the Commission's biggest antitrust penalty had been a €1.38bn fine imposed on participants in a car glass cartel in 2008.The Commission's sanctions followed a total fine of €128.74m levied last year against four producers of the glass used in cathode-ray tubes.Chunghwa Picture Tubes, Samsung Electronics, LG Display and three other LCD companies were penalised a total €648m two years ago for taking part in a cartel.


Fiscal watchdog sees a million jobs lost


Britain's fiscal policy watchdog said on Wednesday that more than one million jobs would now be cut from the public sector by 2018 because of further government spending cuts.The independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces forecasts that underpin the government's economic policy, said gross domestic product would grow much more slowly than it forecast in March. According to the OBR, about 1.1 million general government jobs would be lost in total from the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition's austerity plans, which got underway in mid-2010, "reflecting the additional year of spending cuts pencilled in for 2017-18".In March, it had expected about 730 000 public sector jobs to be cut across the full period of austerity. There are roughly five and half million people employed in Britain's public sector.The watchdog predicted a 0.1% fall in GDP in the fourth quarter followed by growth of 0.3% in the first three months of 2013. In March, it had expected growth of 0.3% in the final three months of this year.It has also cut longer-term forecasts sharply. The economy will grow 1.2% next year and 2% in 2014, while 2015 and 2016 forecasts were revised down to 2.3% and 2.7% respectively.


Senate approves $631bn defence budget


The US Senate unanimously passed the Pentagon's 2013 budget on Tuesday, despite a political impasse over debt reduction that could see huge cuts to military spending next year.After months of negotiations, lawmakers voted 98-0 to approve the $631bn National Defence Authorisation Act for Fiscal Year 2013, which began on 1 October.The sweeping measure, passed after five days of debate and hundreds of amendments, would tighten sanctions on Iran, restrict the president's authorisation in handling terrorism suspects, and prohibit the military detention of US nationals.The bill must be reconciled with a version passed earlier this year in the House of Representatives before going to President Barack Obama's desk for his signature, though the White House has threatened a veto.The two versions have major differences, but both Senate Armed Services Committee chairperson, Carl Levin, and ranking Republican, John McCain, expressed confidence in reaching consensus in conference.The administration "strongly objects" to sections of the bill that would, among other things, impose restrictions on the use of funds to transfer detainees held at the US Naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba to foreign countries; and to the proposed trimming of civilian and contract workers."If the bill is presented to the president for approval in its current form, the president's senior advisers would recommend that the president veto the bill," the Office of Management and Budget said last week. Obama had sought $614bn, of which $89bn would go to the war in Afghanistan.The Senate however, hiked the total figure by $17bn, even as lawmakers and the president grapple with how to avoid hundreds of billions of dollars in automatic spending cuts that kick in next month if no deficit reduction deal is reached. Tuesday's legislation saw more than 140 amendments added to the bill, including a ban on the US government detaining American citizens or US permanent residents without charge, and tough new economic sanctions on Iran aimed at stalling the Islamic republic's nuclear programme.It also includes an amendment requiring the administration to report to Congress on the US military options available for degrading Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's use of air power against his own people, although it does not expressly authorise the use of US military force and is not to be construed as a declaration of war against Syria.The bill also provides a 1.7% pay raise for military personnel, strengthens the Pentagon's anti-sexual assault programmes, and improves the care and management of wounded warriors, McCain said.The bill also approves funding for the deployment of additional US forces to protect American embassies and diplomatic missions abroad a reaction to the September 11 attack on the consulate in Benghazi, Libya.Four Americans including ambassador Christopher Stevens were killed in the attack by Islamist militants, and several investigations are under way to determine possible security lapses that contributed to the incident.Tuesday's vote marked a rare moment of cooperation between the two parties. Democrats and Republicans are engaged in fierce negotiations on deficit reduction for the next 10 years; they have until the end of the month to forge a compromise, but as of Tuesday, the discussions seemed stalled."Our efforts demonstrate that when it comes to addressing the issues important to the men and women in uniform, the Senate can work together in a bipartisan manner," McCain said.


Saudi businesses fear impact of new fees


Glancing through the newspapers one morning last month Saudi Arabian businessperson Ihsan al-Naeem was stunned by a government announcement that he fears will threaten the survival of his family's 30-year-old contracting business.In the latest and most aggressive of a series of labour reforms, the government has started imposing fees on companies that hire more foreign than local workers. The requirement covers everyone from expat professionals to hospital workers and labourers on construction sites and is in addition to quotas already in place to limit foreign staff numbers.The new rule is aimed at reducing unemployment of 10.5% among Saudi nationals by getting them into jobs now performed by 8 million expatriates in the country, a long-term Saudi goal given fresh impetus by the uprisings in Arab countries last year that were partly driven by high unemployment. Labour Minister Adel al-Fakeih said in January that the largest Arab economy needed to create 3 million jobs for Saudi nationals by 2015 and 6 million by 2030, partly through "Saudi-ising" work now done by foreigners. However, in an economy in which imported labour fills nine in 10 private sector jobs, according to central bank data, many companies fear the new fees will hit their businesses hard by adding to their costs and shrinking the pool of available workers."There are no Saudis who can drill or operate heavy machinery ... Where will they work in the construction industry?" said Naeem, who employs more than 1,000 foreign labourers working on 17 government contracts. As of November 15, Naeem and other private sector employers who hire more foreigners than Saudis must pay a fee of 2 400 riyals ($640) a year for each additional expatriate when they renew an expat's one-year residency permit.The rule does not cover foreigners with Saudi mothers or nationals of other Gulf states. Businessmen protested outside Labour Ministry offices after the decision, threatening to raise their fees to cover the additional labour costs o r terminate existing government contracts. A Labour Ministry spokesperson said there were no plans to reverse or amend the decision. "The decision is based on detailed studies of the market mechanisms and it will hopefully increase the competitiveness of our local youth in a market that has no mercy, which has eight foreigners in every 10 employees of the private sector, who compete with our youth for their livelihood," the spokesperson, Hattab Alenezi, said. Businesses say the new system will not address the problem of Saudis unwilling to work in the private sector. Wages are much lower than in government jobs and in many cases people are better off on unemployment benefit, which pays 2 000 riyals a month for up to a year. A security guard in the private sector, for example, earns only around 1 500 riyals a month. After the 1970s oil boom, which propelled many Saudis into a lifestyle of wealth and luxury, locals viewed jobs requiring manual labour as menial and imported cheap foreign labour to build their cities and service their offices. Construction labourers from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines form the biggest group of foreign workers." I have never come across a Saudi willing to work as a labourer," Naeem said, estimating his medium-sized company will have to pay around 2.4 million riyals in annual fees. Businesses complain that the fees on foreign workers were introduced with immediate effect with no warning or consultation, and that they appear to contradict other recent reforms to encourage "Saudi-isation" that take account of different industries' requirements. Last year the Labour Ministry overhauled a crude quota system for Saudi and foreign employees to take account of a company's size and sector. Those who do not comply with the quotas, known as Nitaqat, face hiring restrictions. Before the overhaul the local quota was a flat rate of 30%. Now the rate varies depending on what sector a company is in and what size it is. A small construction company is allowed more foreigners than a large bank, for instance. The impact of the Nitaqat reform is not yet clear but some economists fear the introduction of fees on foreign staff fit an old pattern of ineffective measures that add costs for companies." I think that (the fee) is going to be treated as a tax by some companies rather than an incentive to employ additional Saudis. It doesn't really address the supply issue which is that Saudis need to be incentivised to take private sector jobs," said James Reeve, a senior economist at Samba Financial Group. There is no formal minimum wage despite government efforts to raise pay for Saudis in private companies. Under Nitaqat rules, construction and transport businesses only need employ one Saudi for 19 expatriates and fear the new fees will hit them particularly hard."Saudis can work in the administration, but there are only a few jobs there," said Mahfooz Bin Mahfooz, who owns a transport company and said he cannot find Saudis to work for him as truck drivers." I want a job in the field that I studied for. I did not go to college so I can work as a driver," said a 22-year-old unemployed Saudi in Jeddah w i th a computer science degree. Not all businessmen disagree with the fee. Some say it is important to achieve the kingdom's long-term goal of getting more Saudis into work. Mohammed al-Agil, head of the kingdom's largest listed retailer Jarir Marketing Co, said about 40 percent of his employees are Saudi although he accepted that it was easier to find local workers in his sector." I think it is a good initiative but I think they should have given enough notice," he said. Many newspaper commentators, however, have voiced vehement opposition."The first to be harmed by it are local business owners, and secondly consumers who will no doubt bear the brunt of rising prices," said Essam al-Ghafaily, a columnist in al-Watan daily newspaper. Even the price of bread could rise by as much as 7 percent as bakers expect to transfer the cost of the new fees onto consumers, said Ali al-Shehri, head of the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce bakers' committee, in remarks printed by al-Watan newspaper.Naeem, the contractor, said he feared missing out on important tenders because the price of his bids will have to rise."Coming from a medium-sized company I'm getting exhausted ... my activities internally may change and I may even look to shift business a b road," he said.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

NEWS,15.11.2012



Gaza rocket lands near Tel Aviv as death toll rises


Two rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have landed close to Tel Aviv raising the stakes in a military showdown between Israel and the Palestinians that is moving towards all-out war.
It was the first attack on Israel's biggest city in 20 years.
Earlier, a Hamas rocket killed three Israelis north of the Gaza Strip, drawing the first blood from Israel as the Palestinian death toll rose to 16.
On the second day of an assault that Israel said might last many days and culminate in a ground attack, its warplanes bombed targets in and around Gaza City.
Plumes of smoke and dust furled into a sky laced with the vapour trails of outgoing rockets over the crowded city, where four young children killed yesterday were buried.
The sudden conflict, launched by Israel with the killing of Hamas's military chief, pours oil on the fire of a Middle East already ablaze with two years of revolution and an out-of-control civil war in Syria.
In brief:
  • Israel has launched a major offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip
  • It says the attack is in response to Palestinian rocket strikes
  • One air strike killed Hamas's military chief Ahmed Al-Jaabari
  • Two rockets have landed near Israel's biggest city - Tel Aviv
  • Some 270 rockets have been fired at Israel since its operation started
  • At least 16 people (including five children) have been killed in the Gaza Strip
  • Three Israelis have also been killed in the town of Kiryat Malachi
Egypt's new Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, viewed by Hamas as a protector, led a chorus of denunciation of the Israeli strikes by Palestinian allies.
Mursi's prime minister, Hisham Kandil, will visit Gaza on Friday local time with other Egyptian officials in a show of support for the enclave, an Egyptian cabinet official said.
Israel promised that the delegation would come to no harm.
Israel says its attack is in response to escalating missile strikes from Gaza.

Tel Aviv
Israel's bombing has not yet reached the saturation level seen before it last invaded Gaza in 2008, but Israeli officials have said a ground assault is still an option.
Israeli police said three Israelis died when a rocket hit a four-story building in the town of Kiryat Malachi, some 25km north of Gaza, the first Israeli fatalities of the latest conflict to hit the coastal region.
Air raid sirens sent residents running for shelter in Tel Aviv, Israel's commercial centre. A security source said the rocket - claimed by Islamic Jihad - landed in the sea.
The second was said to have landed in an uninhabited area of the Tel Avivi suburbs.
Tel Aviv residents said an explosion could be heard.The Tel Aviv metropolitan area holds more than three million people - more than 40% of Israel's population.
In remarks broadcast after rockets were fired at Tel Aviv, Israel's Defence Minister Ehud Barak said: "This escalation will exact a price that the other side will have to pay."
He also announced he had ordered the military to enlist more reservists "so that we can prepare for any development".
'Double war crime'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hamas was committing a double war crime, by firing at Israeli civilians and hiding behind Palestinians civilians.
"I hope that Hamas and the other terrorist organisations in Gaza got the message," he said. "If not, Israel is prepared to take whatever action is necessary to defend our people."
Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said Israel would pay a heavy price "for this open war which they initiated".
After watching powerlessly from the sidelines of the Arab Spring, Israel has been thrust to the centre of a volatile new world in which Islamist Hamas hopes that Mursi and his newly dominant Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt will be its protectors.
Hamas's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, urged Egypt to do more to help the Palestinians.
"We call upon the brothers in Egypt to take the measures that will deter this enemy," he said.
Instability
The new conflict will be the biggest test yet of Mursi's commitment to Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel, which the West views as the bedrock of Middle East peace.
"The Israelis must realise that this aggression is unacceptable and would only lead to instability in the region and would negatively and greatly impact the security of the region," Mursi said.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which brought Mursi to power in an election after the downfall of autocrat Hosni Mubarak, has called for a "Day of Rage" in Arab capitals on Friday.
The Brotherhood is seen as the spiritual mentors of Hamas.
Al-Jabaari
The Israeli offensive "Pillar of Defence" began on Wednesday when a precision Israeli airstrike killed Hamas military mastermind Ahmed Al-Jaabari. Israel then began shelling the enclave from land, air and sea.
The 15 killed in Gaza included Jaabari and six Hamas fighters plus eight civilians, among them a pregnant woman with twins, an 11-month old boy and three infants, according to the enclave's health ministry. Medics reported at least 130 wounded.
The Israeli army said 156 targets were hit in Gaza, 126 of them rocket launchers.
It said 200 rockets had struck Israel since the start of the operation, 135 of them since midnight local time.
Israel's Iron Dome interceptor system has so far shot down more than 80 rockets headed for residential areas, the military said.
Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets in Gaza telling residents to stay away from Hamas and other militants.


Euro zone falls into recession


The euro zone fell into a recession in July-September, the second since the global financial crisis in 2009, as French resilience could not make up for a slump across Europe and the three-year debt crisis slowed Germany to a crawl.Economic output in the 17-country euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, following a 0.2% drop in the second quarter.Those two quarters of contraction put the euro zone's 9.4 trillion euro ($14.7 trillion) economy officially in recession, although Italy and Spain have been contracting for a year already and Greece is suffering an outright depression.Germany and France, the euro zone's biggest economies, could not save the bloc from a double-dip recession even though both countries managed 0.2% growth in the quarter.Large countries like Italy, Spain and the Netherlands all contracted and Belgium, a big exporter, stagnated.Protests against cuts Millions of people across Europe protested against government spending cuts that EU policymakers say are crucial to ending the debt crisis but which others blame for the economic contraction."We are now getting into a double dip recession which is entirely self-made," said Paul De Grauwe, an economist with the London School of Economics."It is a result of excessive austerity in southern countries and unwillingness in the north to do anything else," he said.Not everyone shares that view and the European Commission says labour costs are falling and exports are rising for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, arguing that austerity is a necessary evil to bring down unsustainable budget deficits.The European Commission sees a 0.4 % contraction for the euro zone in all of 2012.Demand for goods drying up Hopes for a recovery next year are also fading, with the European Commission saying the economy will grow just 0.1% in 2013.A rebound in the euro zone could be vital for the rest of the world as the United States and China struggle with the impact of the crisis on their companies' ability to grow and prosper.In one positive sign, Eurostat said separately that the euro zone's annual inflation fell to 2.5% in October from 2.6% in September, suggesting an end to a run of stubborn inflation that has contributed to the difficult environment.But after months of resilience, Germany, Europe's largest economy, is seeing its companies unnerved by the crisis and demand for its goods in the euro zone and abroad is drying up.While German gross domestic product expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter, it slowed to 0.3% in the second and weakened again in the third quarter.Economists expect a worse performance in the fourth quarter.

Wall Street down

Wall Street dropped today, after Wal-Mart's profit outlook disappointed.Shares of Wal-Mart fell, last down 3.7%, after the retail giant predicted that its fourth-quarter profit will drop."Current macroeconomic conditions continue to pressure our customers," Charles Holley, Wal-Mart's executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in a statement.There was plenty of evidence of that pressure, exacerbated by the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Applications for unemployment benefits jumped more than expected, rising 78,000 to 439,000 in the week ended November 10, according to Labor Department data. A worrying sign indeed. "We will likely see a step back in job growth," Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, told Reuters.Separately, data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank and the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that indexes of manufacturing shrank in those regions this month. The latest data only add to the need for President Barack Obama and lawmakers to find a way to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, a mix of tax increases and spending cuts that will kick in automatically on January 1 and risk hampering the already-fragile economy.In afternoon trading in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.38%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index each shed 0.48%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index ended the day with a 1% slide from the previous close. The FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX each dropped 0.8%. France's CAC 40 shed 0.5%. There was more bad news for the euro zone economy. The latest data showed that the region's gross domestic product dropped 0.1% in the quarter, after a 0.2% decline in the second quarter.A  poll of more than 70 economists predicted the bloc's new recession will extend until the end of the year and 2013 promises little better than stagnation. Conducted before today's data were released, the consensus was for a 2012 contraction of 0.5% and only 0.1% growth next year."The euro zone as a whole has slipped back into recession," Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News. "Europe's economic downturn has not only deepened, it has also broadened with the core of the euro zone now much more affected. The bleak economic data out of Europe will further undermine sentiment," according to Spiro.In other news, BP said it reached a settlement with the US government to pay US$4.5 billion in penalties, settling all criminal charges and resolving securities claims relating to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.