NEWS,31.03.2013

Pope appeals for peace

Pope Francis used his first Easter Sunday address to call for peace in the world and appealed for a diplomatic solution to the crisis on the Korean peninsula.In his first "Urbi et Orbi" (to the city and the world) message, Francis also called for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, an end to the civil war in Syria, and political solutions to conflicts in several African countries.The former Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina, who has made defence of nature an early hallmark of his pontificate, also condemned the "iniquitous exploitation of natural resources" and urged everyone to be "guardians" of creation.Francis delivered his message from the central balcony of St Peter's Basilica - the same spot from where he first appeared to the world as pope after his election on 13 March - to a crowd estimated by the Vatican at at least 250 000 people."Peace in Asia, above all on the Korean peninsula: may disagreements be overcome and a renewed spirit of reconciliation grow," he said, speaking in Italian.State of warNorth Korea said on Saturday it was entering a "state of war" with South Korea. Tensions have been high since the North's new young leader Kim Jong-un ordered a third nuclear weapons test in February, breaching UN sanctions and ignoring warnings from North Korea's sole major ally, China, not to do so.Francis, who has brought a more simple and personal style to the papacy, said the message of Easter is that faith can help people transform their lives by letting "those desert places in our hearts bloom"."How many deserts, even today, do human beings need to cross! Above all, the desert within, when we have no love for God or neighbour, when we fail to realise that we are guardians of all that the creator has given us and continues to give us," he said.Earlier, at a Mass in a square bedecked by more than 40 000 plants and flowers, the pope wore relatively simple white vestments, as opposed to his predecessor Benedict, who preferred more elaborate robes.The huge crowd spilled out of St Peter's Square and into surrounding streets and included many who had come to see a pope they hope could give a new start to a Church that has been marred by scandals involving sexual abuse of children and allegations of corruption."It's a new pope and new beginning," said Tina Hughes, 67, who came to Rome with her family from Nottingham, England to see the pope. "I think he brings something special. He connects with people. I feel good about him."Message of peaceFrancis, who took his name in honour of St Francis of Assisi, who is revered as a symbol of austerity and the importance of the natural world, said:"Peace in the whole world, still divided by greed looking for easy gain, wounded by the selfishness which threatens human life and the family, selfishness that continues in human trafficking, the most extensive form of slavery in this 21st century."Peace to the whole world, torn apart by violence linked to drug trafficking and by the iniquitous exploitation of natural resources! Peace to this our Earth! May the risen Jesus bring comfort to the victims of natural disasters and make us responsible guardians of creation."Easter Sunday, the day Christians believe Jesus was resurrected from the dead three days after his crucifixion, was the culmination of four hectic days of activity for the pope, during which he instituted several novelties.On Holy Thursday, two women were included among the 12 people whose feet he washed and kissed during a traditional ceremony that had previously been open only to men.Francis is still living in the same Vatican guesthouse where he stayed during the conclave that elected him the first non-European pope in 1 300 years, instead of moving into the regal papal apartments in the Vatican's Apostolic Palace.He has also been inviting ordinary people to his morning Mass at the guesthouse, including Vatican street sweepers and gardeners.

North Korea Calls Nuclear Weapons 'The Nation's Life,' Won't Trade Them For 'Billions Of Dollars'

A top North Korean decision-making body issued a pointed warning Sunday, saying that nuclear weapons are "the nation's life" and will not be traded even for "billions of dollars."The comments came in a statement released after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presided over the plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party. The meeting, which set a "new strategic line" calling for building both a stronger economy and nuclear arsenal, comes amid a series of near-daily threats from Pyongyang in recent weeks, including a vow to launch nuclear strikes on the United States and a warning Saturday that the Korean Peninsula was in a "state of war."Pyongyang is angry over annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and a new round of U.N. sanctions that followed its Feb. 12 nuclear test, the country's third. Analysts see a full-scale North Korean attack as unlikely and say the threats are more likely efforts to provoke softer policies toward Pyongyang from a new government in Seoul, to win diplomatic talks with Washington that could get the North more aid, and to solidify the young North Korean leader's image and military credentials at home.North Korea made reference to those outside views in the statement it released through the official Korean Central News Agency following the plenary meeting.North Korea's nuclear weapons are a "treasure" not to be traded for "billions of dollars," the statement said. They "are neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings to be presented to the place of dialogue or be put on the table of negotiations aimed at forcing (Pyongyang) to disarm itself," it said.North Korea's "nuclear armed forces represent the nation's life, which can never be abandoned as long as the imperialists and nuclear threats exist on earth," the statement said.North Korea has called the U.S. nuclear arsenal a threat to its existence since the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula still technically at war. Pyongyang justifies its own nuclear pursuit in large part on that perceived U.S. threat.While analysts call North Korea's threats largely brinkmanship, there is some fear that a localized skirmish might escalate. Seoul has vowed to respond harshly should North Korea provoke its military. Naval skirmishes in disputed Yellow Sea waters off the Korean coast have led to bloody battles several times over the years. Attacks blamed on Pyongyang in 2010 killed 50 South Koreans.The plenary statement also called for strengthening the moribund economy, which Kim has put an emphasis on in his public statements since taking power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in late 2011. The United Nations says two-thirds of the country's 24 million people face regular food shortages.The statement called for diversified foreign trade and investment, and a focus on agriculture, light industry and a "self-reliant nuclear power industry," including a light water reactor. There was also a call for "the development of space science and technology," including more satellite launches. North Korea put a satellite into orbit on a long-range rocket in December. The United Nations called the launch a cover for a banned test of ballistic missile technology and increased sanctions on the North.The central committee is a top decision-making body of the North's ruling Workers' Party. The committee is tasked with organizing and guiding the party's major projects, and its plenary meeting is usually convened once a year, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry. South Korean media said the last plenary session was held in 2010 and that this was the first time Kim Jong Un had presided over the meeting.The White House says the United States is taking North Korea's threats seriously, but has also noted Pyongyang's history of "bellicose rhetoric."On Thursday, U.S. military officials revealed that two B-2 stealth bombers dropped dummy munitions on an uninhabited South Korean island as part of annual defense drills that Pyongyang sees as rehearsals for invasion. Hours later, Kim ordered his generals to put rockets on standby and threatened to strike American targets if provoked.

Markets Sending Unusual Signals

The U.S. equity market had a great finish to a wonderful first three months of 2013. In logging its best first-quarter performance since 1987 (11 percent), the Dow set yet another all-time high. For its part, the S&P surged 10 percent, ending above its previous (2007) record close.The rally reflects slowly-improving economic conditions, relatively robust corporate profitability and anticipation of stronger domestic and foreign inflows into the equity market. Yet this is far from the whole story.Investors need only look at where some other benchmarks ended the quarter to get a feel for the unprecedented and artificial nature of today's capital markets. Few would have predicted that the impressive equity performance would be accompanied by a 10-year U.S. Treasury rate as low as 1.85 percent, a 10-year German government bond (bund) rate as low as 1.29 percent and gold as high as $1,596 an ounce. Think of this as the markets' way to signal to investors some key issues for the quarters ahead. The persistence of this unusual combination of bond, equity and gold prices speaks to how central banks around the world and the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in particular have fueled risk taking in the face of rather sluggish economic growth, recurrent concerns about European disruptions and lingering worries about geopolitical risk.In the weeks ahead, we will get a sense of central banks' willingness to continue to support asset prices pending a stronger and more comprehensive recovery in economic growth.I suspect that, notwithstanding some internal opposition, they will signal continued resolve as a way to enhance via the wealth effect and animal spirits prospects for growth and jobs. Indeed, the willingness call is a relatively easy one. The much more difficult call relates to the sustained ability of central banks to maintain control over the range of competing and conflicting forces.Investors are unable to refer to historical precedents or reliable models to predict confidently what lies ahead as:

1. The scope and scale of central bank policy experimentation are already unprecedented.

2. The imposition of capital control by a euro zone country (as occurred this week in Cyprus) was deemed so remote as to be essentially unthinkable.

3. And particularly with what is happening in Afghanistan, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria even the most experienced analysts struggle with some of the world's most volatile areas.

Looking ahead, the validation of prices in risk markets needs the fuller engagement of healthy balance sheets and more robust economic activity, including what my PIMCO colleague Saumil Parikh refers to as the transition from "assisted growth" to "genuine growth."While there is reason to expect that this will continue to occur gradually in the U.S. absent political/policy disruption), it will unfortunately not happen in Europe for quite a while. Effective central bank intervention remains critical to the well being of the equity market in the quarters ahead. Actions need to be strong enough to offset Congressional dysfunction and headwinds from abroad. But if too strong, they would damage for a long time the functioning and integrity of markets.Central banks did a good job in striking this balance in the first quarter. The hope, going forward, is that they remain not just willing to do so but also able.

Enlist the Enlightened Super-Rich!

You often hear progressives bemoaning the massive war chests of the right-wing funders, particularly after their successful backing of the boisterous Tea Party movement. But a common mistake made by the left is not adequately focusing on cultivating their own likeminded super-rich to provide the necessary resources to advance their own noble causes. It would only take a few enlightened mega-billionaires to provide the major funding needed to shift power from the few to the many and to get the ball rolling on long overdue, fundamental solutions to our country's biggest problems.History shows a precedent. The greatest civil rights struggles in American history were bankrolled by wealthy, enlightened benefactors. Gerrit Smith, Joshua Bowen Smith, Arthur and Lewis Tappan and James G. Birney were some of those who funded the abolitionist movement using their resources to create organizations like the Anti-Slavery Society and the Liberty Party, an independent, antislavery third party. Louisine Havemeyer, Carrie Chapman Catt, Alva Belmont and Julia Ward Howe contributed their finances to the women's suffrage movement. Catt, the wife of a wealthy engineer, contributed a million dollars (about $25 million today) to send out information to newspapers and magazines and to mobilize activists during the final push to gain the women's right to vote in 1917-1918.In 2013, we need to tap into that fervor which led to such great progressive victories. With adequate resources, it is possible to build powerful new constituencies to make government open and honest and reflective of the prevailing public sentiment.The difference between charity and justice must be made clear. Soup kitchens are a vital and humane charity. Justice, on the other hand, looks to the root of the problem, and asks why the wealthiest places on Earth, such as the United States, have any starving or hungry people at all. It's true that many wealthy people donate substantially to charity presently, most philanthropy does go to charity. But by directing billions of dollars to preventing deprivation in the first place, the impact could be much greater.A society with more justice needs less charity. This practical approach has been proven again and again in the areas of public health and safety. Think of seat belts, clean air and safe vaccines. Furthermore, more resources are needed in the much neglected area of corporate accountability. Wall Street and other commercial interests have met too little resistance to their wrongdoings for too long. The public sentiment is there, what is needed is the fuel.A vast frontier of opportunity exists for our political economy to serve the needs of the many, especially our children, and not just the overpaid executives of massive corporations. Justice needs financial resources to spread its embrace. Enlightened, senior super-rich have the power to give our citizens much needed organization in communities around the country. As an example, back in 2003, hundreds of retired military, diplomatic and national security officials publically and separately challenged George W. Bush's drumbeats to invade Iraq. The commercial media and Congress even the Democratic leadership refused to hear these numerous experienced and credible antiwar voices.What difference could a wealthy backer have made to the antiwar movement? Look to George Soros, the wealthy philanthropist and progressive-cause supporter. During the lead up to the second Iraq War, his voice was one amongst the opposition. He accurately predicted the quagmire the United States would find itself in as a result of its march to war. His criticism received some media coverage, but like the others, it wasn't sustained enough to counter the months-long propaganda campaign of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld. What Soros failed to do was devote some of his considerable resources to creating an equal-footed coalition to oppose the warmongers. Soros could have used that nucleus of three hundred or so retired officials and expanded upon it with a backup secretariat that coordinated a mass media campaign and placed full-time organizers in congressional districts to directly challenge senators and representatives to assert their constitutional duties. To Soros, the $200 million cost of such a campaign would have been a small part of his annual income. The potential payoff could have saved billions of dollars, millions of lives and injuries and avoided the sociocide of Iraq.My book, "Only the Super-rich Can Save Us!" laid out a blueprint for such a movement by the enlightened super-rich that could actually happen. Using 17 real-life wealthy Americans in fictional roles, led by Warren Buffett, a massive, well-funded campaign is launched to galvanize millions of Americans to organize themselves and restore their problem-solving sovereignty over their government and the massive corporations that have co-opted too much power and influence in Washington, D.C. for too long.One thing is clear -- we can't enact great change without making a serious commitment to civic engagement. Such a commitment can be jumpstarted right now by a few of our wealthiest citizens -- only they have the immediate resources necessary to turn the tide against the corporate oligarchy. Who among them will step forward?

NEWS,08.01.2013

Bumpy road for German economy - experts

More evidence of sliding German exports and industry orders on Tuesday compounded concerns that the eurozone crisis may have battered the region's largest economy into contraction at the end of last year.German imports and exports slid in November, narrowing the trade surplus, and industry orders fell more than expected.Imports slid 3.7%, while exports fell 3.4%, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected imports to increase by 0.4% and shipments abroad to drop 0.5%. Seasonally-adjusted industrial orders fell 1.8% in November, due mainly to a sharp fall in demand from non-eurozone countries. That was below a 1.4% drop forecast by a Reuters poll of 29 economists. Germany has served as a pillar of regional strength through the three-year eurozone debt crisis but the economy slowed in the third quarter of last year and economists expect it to have contracted in the last quarter. Although many see Germany escaping a recession and staging a steady improvement this year, Tuesday's data prompted some economists to predict a bumpy road." With a pick-up of global demand, exports could quickly return as the reliable growth driver. However, (the) latest new order data illustrate that the way out of contraction will not necessarily be a straight upward-sloped line," said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING. Germany is unlikely to join eurozone stragglers, he added, but "could end up humming the 'things will get worse before they get better' tune still for some time."Trade surplus narrows The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus narrowed more than expected to €14.6bn from a downwardly revised 14.9bn in October. The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll was for it to narrow slightly to €15.0bn. Weakness in the European Union, where Germany sells roughly 60% of its exported goods, is weighing on exports. Sovereign debt crises have driven most of its partners to raise taxes and cut spending, weakening appetite for German goods, although demand from emerging markets has gone some way to compensating for that.A breakdown of the German trade data on an unadjusted basis showed exports to the eurozone slumped 5.7% on the year, even as exports to countries outside Europe rose 5.6%.The drop in imports raises questions about the ability of German consumers and companies to prop up growth during the eurozone crisis, as many had hoped, with unemployment on the rise and consumer morale deteriorating. Nonetheless, unemployment is close to a 20-year low and wages are rising for the first time in years. Purchasing managers' reports showed the private sector expanded for the first time in eight months in December, while the Ifo index showed morale at German businesses rising in November and December. The economy ministry played down the decline in manufacturing orders given strong October figures."Overall, demand seems to be stabilising. The slight improvement in sentiment indicators also points to this," said the ministry in a statement.Providing some reassurance about domestic demand, bookings from within Germany increased by 1.3%.However, foreign orders fell by 4.1%. While bookings from the eurozone inched up 0.2%, contracts from countries outside the currency union slumped by 6.5% after an 8% rise in October. "Demand for capital goods remains low in view of the weak economic environment in Europe, where there is significant overcapacity in many places," said Bernd Hartmann, head of investment research at VP Bank.

Eurozone jobless rate jumps to new high

Europe's unemployment numbers are rising to worrying new records with dire figures from Spain especially underlining a growing north-south divide, official data showed on Tuesday.The unemployment rate across the troubled eurozone hit 11.8% in November, up from 11.7% in October, with the number of people out of work in the 17-nation single currency area now nudging 19 million. The 19th rise in a row for the eurozone, home to some 330 million people, represented an increase of more than two million on the dole compared to a year ago. London-based IHS Global Insight analyst Howard Archer calculated the cumulative increase since April 2011 as 3.278 million out-of-work."The only crumb of comfort was that this was the smallest rise since August, although it did follow a particularly sharp rise of 220,000 in October," Archer said, adding that he expected the jobless rate to "move clearly above 12% during 2013."While the jobless numbers exceeded 26 million for the first time across the full 27-member European Union, which includes Britain and Poland, the EU as a whole recorded an unchanged 10.7-percent unemployment rate.Indeed, there were more jobless over the past year, according to Eurostat data, in the 17-nation eurozone where the number of newly unemployed was 2.015 million, compared to 2.012 million for the EU. Facing a bust property boom and riddled with bad debt in its banks, Spain recorded the highest unemployment rate of all the European countries - at 26.6%, worse even than bailed-out Greece. Among under-25s, both countries saw unemployment rates hovering around 57%.According to Eurostat figures seasonally-adjusted for comparative purposes, the November unemployment rate in key rival economies was 7.8% for the United States and 4.1% for Japan."2012 has been another very bad year for Europe in terms of unemployment and the deteriorating social situation," said European Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Laszlo Andor. Giving his annual report on employment trends, he said that "appropriate labour market reforms and improvements in the design of welfare systems" could make countries more resilient to economic shocks. But with a north-south divide between Germany and similar satellite economies faring far better than Europe's southern Mediterranean rim, Andor said it was "unlikely that Europe will see much socio-economic improvement in 2013.""A widening gap is emerging," Andor said, even between the north and south just of the eurozone. The Commission concluded there was a divergence between "countries that seem trapped in a downward spiral of falling output, fast-rising unemployment and eroding disposable incomes, and those that have so far shown good or at least some resilience."Southern and peripheral countries whose governments and companies face much higher interest rates or no access to market financing will continue to struggle, the Commission said, citing an over-allocation of lending during the construction boom of the last decade.

Italian jobless ranks swell

Italy's jobless rate remained at a record high in November while youth unemployment jumped to a new peak above 37%, data showed on Tuesday. Italy has been in a deep recession since the middle of 2011 and unemployment has risen steadily as businesses clamp down on staffing levels to cope with crumbling domestic demand. The plight of the unemployed and particularly young people will be a crunch issue at the election and outgoing Prime Minister Monti, who heads a centrist group, has been criticised by opponents on the left and right of hurting the economy in his efforts to fix public finances. Unemployment was stable in November at October's record high of 11.1%, national statistics institute ISTAT reported. Joblessness rose above 11% in October for the first time since the first quarter of 1999. Before January 2004 ISTAT only issued quarterly jobs data. November's rate was marginally below a forecast of a further rise to 11.2% in a Reuters survey of analysts, but it was up 1.8 percentage points from November 2011 when Monti was appointed to save Italy from a mounting debt crisis. The youth unemployment rate, referring to 15-24 year-olds, jumped for the third month running in November to 37.1%, its highest level since records began in 1992.Companies are reluctant to give new recruits regular contracts because strong job protection means it is hard to fire them. So young people tend to move from one temporary contract to the next, and opportunities have dried up in the recession. Monti sought to address the problem with a hotly contested labour reform passed last summer, but critics say that by making it more costly and complicated for firms to offer temporary contracts the reform discouraged hiring in the recession. "You always hope that if you put some effort in you will get something back," said 22 year-old Michele Andaloro as he lined up in search of work at one of Rome's largest job centres. "The next government needs to work for the future of young people and not behave like in the past." Analysts say the growing financial difficulties of families are also forcing more young people to look for work rather than study or live off family income. In a dismal series of records, the employment rate edged down in November to a 12-month low of 56.8%, while the male employment rate fell to 66.3%, the lowest since records began in 1992."The worst hit by the crisis are those in the industrial section and construction," an ISTAT spokesperson said.I talian industrial output is still more than 25% lower than its level of mid-2008, before the recession brought on by the global financial crisis. Analysts say the real challenge for Italy is to increase its chronically low rates of employment and participation in the labour market, which are among the lowest in the industrialised world, especially among women, the young and the elderly.

NEWS,08.11.2012

Draghi open to ECB rate cut

The euro zone economy shows little sign of recovering before the year-end despite easing financial market conditions, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said today, leaving open the possiblity of an interest rate cut in the months ahead.But after keeping rates on hold, Draghi said the ECB cannot do much more to help Greece with its debt burden and gave Spain none of the assurance it wants that ECB bond buying will lower its borrowing costs."The ECB is by and large done," Draghi told his monthly news conference when asked what the bank could do for Greece.The euro zone is grappling to find a formula to make Greek debt sustainable, with Germany and the International Monetary Fund at odds over the need for governments and the ECB to take a "haircut" on Greek bonds they hold to make the numbers add up.The ECB agreed earlier this year to hand over to euro zone governments profits on its Greek bonds but has refused to take a hit on the value of the paper, saying that would be "monetary financing" which it is prohibited from doing.The ECB held its main rate at 0.75%, deferring any cut while it waits for a cue to use its new bond-purchase plan. That wait may be prolonged after Spain completed its 2012 funding at affordable rates on capital markets on today.A  poll had given an 80% chance the ECB would hold its main rate, but most of the 73 analysts polled expect it will be cut to a new record low of 0.5% within the next few months.Draghi said ECB monetary policy is "very accommodative". He declined to comment when asked whether markets were right to expect a rate cut next month and said the policymaking Governing Council had not discussed what it would do next year.Economist Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said: "Draghi appeared to ease open the door to a cut in interest rates over the coming months and potentially as soon as December." Not everyone expects a cut that soon. "Our sense is that the ECB is firmly on hold," said JP Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi, though he added: "Next year, the ECB will act if growth disappoints more fundamentally." Describing "a picture of weaker economies" in the euro zone, Draghi said this would influence new ECB economic forecasts due next month. Inflation would remain above the ECB's target for the rest of the year, before falling below 2% in 2013."We certainly continue monitoring economic activity and we stand ready to act," he said." We stand ready to act with OMT (bond-purchase plan) once the prerequisites are in place. We also stand ready to act with the rest of standard, normal monetary policy instruments. "Recent survey evidence gave no sign of improvement towards the year-end and the risks surrounding the euro area remain on the downside, Draghi said. As he spoke, the euro fell against the dollar and hit a session low in early New York trade.Gloomy data this week indicated the euro zone economy will shrink in the fourth quarter, which the ECB could eventually respond to by cutting rates.Before making any decision to cut rates further, the ECB will focus on making sure that its looser policy reaches companies and households across the euro zone, a mechanism that has been broken by the bloc's debt crisis.The new bond-purchase plan - dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) is the ECB's designated tool for this but can only be activated once a euro zone government requests help from the bloc's rescue fund and accepts policy conditions and strict international supervision.So far no request has been made, but the announcement of the policy alone has calmed markets."We are ready to undertake OMTs which will help to avoid extreme scenarios, thereby clearly reducing concerns about the materialisation of destructive forces," Draghi said.Asked whether he could imagine an extreme scenario in which the bank began buying bonds without conditions, he said the answer was 'no'.Investors and euro zone policymakers have been urging Spain to seek aid but Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has so far held off a request, saying he wants assurances that ECB intervention would bring down Spain's debt costs.Draghi gave Rajoy no comfort."The Governing Council will take the final decision in total independence," he said of any decision on whether to use the OMT programme."In so doing, it cannot give any assurance ex ante".Spain sold 4.8 billion euros of debt including its first longer-term issue in 18 months on Thursday, enough to complete its 2012 financing programme and begin raising funds for next year. So there is little immediate pressure on that front.Yields on Spanish government bonds have dropped by around 2 percentage points since Draghi said in late July the ECB was ready to do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro" - a pledge that heralded the bond-buying plan.

Obama mulls new cabinet picks

US President Barack Obama, fresh from re-election and facing a new clash with congress, got back to work on Thursday, with an important item on his to-do list, stocking his new cabinet.Obama is expected to lose his heavyweights including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, for most if not all of his second four-year term.The president will also likely have to make changes to his White House staff with some senior aides, exhausted by a crisis-strewn four years, expected to move on and others shifting to different administration jobs.Speculation is already rife about who will replace Clinton, who has reiterated that she wants to reclaim a private life put on hold by decades in the spotlight of top level politics. Clinton has said she has no interest in another White House race, but the campaign blitz for Obama by her husband former president Bill Clinton, and the power couple's passion for politics, has sparked renewed speculation.Until Clinton makes her final decision known, the Democratic Party's other possible 2016 presidential candidates will likely hold their fire, as the former first lady would be a prohibitive favourite if she did run.UN ambassador Susan Rice, who has been close to Obama for years, has long been seen as a likely replacement for Clinton at the state department, despite being caught up in the furore over the raid in the US consulate in Benghazi.Another possible contender is John Kerry, chairperson of the senate foreign relations committee, whose stock rose in Obama world after he played Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Obama's practice dry runs for the presidential debates.Rice would be the second African American woman to hold the post after Condoleezza Rice, to whom she is not related. She is known at the United Nations for an assertive manner and not shy about pounding home the US point of view.A report in Russia's Kommersant newspaper on Thursday said that Moscow, with whom Rice has clashed heatedly over Syria, would prefer to see Kerry get the job, at a sensitive time between Obama and restored Russian President Vladimir Putin."It would be more difficult for Moscow to work with Washington" if Rice became secretary of state, the unnamed Russian official was quoted as saying.Kerry would have to step down from the senate, however, and there is concern that his Massachusetts perch could fall prey to Republican Scott Brown, who lost a race with Democrat Elizabeth Warren for the state's other senate seat.White House sources said that the usual timetable for replacing cabinet members  in plenty of time for confirmation by the Senate after the presidential inauguration in January could slip this time.Geithner and Panetta are key figures in the year-end budget and tax showdown looming with Republicans, and may not move on until the so-called "fiscal cliff" drama is resolved.Some insiders talk about White House chief of staff Jacob Lew, himself a budget specialist, as a possible successor for Geithner while others speculate that Obama may reach for someone with business credentials to improve his shaky standing with the corporate world.Panetta is expected to leave the administration at some point, but did not serve for the full four-year first term, having taken over just last year from Robert Gates, a holdover from the previous Bush administration.Also known as a budget specialist, Panetta may stay in place until expected spending reductions are factored in to the Pentagon's budgetary plan to return to his walnut farm in California's Carmel Valley.The current favourite to succeed him is Michele Flournoy, who served as under secretary of defence for policy early in Obama's first term.Her appointment may appeal to Obama's sense of history as she would be the first woman to hold the role.Should Flournoy not get the job, some defence analysts think that the current deputy defence secretary Ashton Carter could be in the frame.There may also be other cabinet departures. It is unclear whether Attorney General Eric Holder, a close associate of Obama who has had a bruising from Republicans, will stay on.Education Secretary Arne Duncan is expected to remain in place to pilot through congress Obama's reform programme, likely a highlight of his second term agenda.Obama may also have some shuffling to do at the White House, especially if Lew moves to Treasury. His political guru, David Plouffe, is expected to leave and there may be other high profile departures.The president sparked speculation on Tuesday when he said he wanted to sit down with Romney to work out how they could take the country forward.Obama's first term "Team of Rivals" approach of choosing former political foes like Clinton, modelled on that of his hero Abraham Lincoln, could apply in Romney's case, perhaps in a job like Commerce Secretary.However, it is unclear whether Romney would be prepared to swallow his pride and work for the man who vanquished him in a bitter White House campaign.

Iran not ruling out nuclear talks with US

Iran, reeling from international sanctions over its nuclear programme and facing four more years with Barack Obama as leader of arch-enemy the United States, does not rule out direct talks with Washington but says they will not come overnight.Obama's re-election drew an ambiguous response from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who dismissed the US elections as a "battleground for the capitalists," at a forum on democracy in Indonesia.Without directly commenting on Obama's victory, he lambasted democracy in the West as having "turned into the rule of a minority over the majority".But behind the flamboyant rhetoric, senior regime figures have expressed cautious signs of interest in the election of Obama, who four years ago famously "extended his hand" to Tehran and may be preparing to do so again.Not overnight An influential cleric among the ruling conservatives, judiciary chief Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, did not rule out Tehran and Washington coming "to the negotiating table" one day but warned it would not happen "overnight."Larijani said on Wednesday that "relations with the United States are not simple".The United States, which Tehran dubs the "Great Satan", severed diplomatic relations with Iran after the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, and the two have been in a tense stand-off ever since."Four years ago, Obama was elected on a platform for change and said he was extending his hand for co-operation with Iran, but he acted otherwise and unprecedented sanctions were imposed," Larijani said.Obama has rallied US allies against Iran, toughening sanctions, with Tehran's oil exports and access to world financial systems being key targets.The United States and other world powers, including Tehran's arch-enemy Israel, accuse Iran of using its nuclear programme to mask a drive for atomic weapons. Tehran denies that, saying it is for purely peaceful purposes.The last offer called for Iran to cease enriching uranium to purities of 20% - technically not far from the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon. It also wanted Iran to close its Fordo enrichment facility and to export existing stockpiles of 20% purity uranium.Iran rejected that, saying it did not offer sufficient relief from sanctions that have begun to cause real economic problems.Larijani's brother and international affairs adviser, Mohammad Javad Larijani, reiterated that negotiating with Washington "is not taboo," but any decision to renew contact "is a prerogative of the supreme leader"."If the interest of the regime requires it, we are prepared to negotiate with the Satan in the pits of hell," he said on Wednesday.A Western ambassador in Tehran said the regime "gives the impression of being willing to be more realistic in its negotiations with major powers, providing they offer it an honourable way out of the crisis".This could include, according to many Western diplomats in Iran, the revival of bilateral contact with the United States.Another European ambassador said "both sides have shown some interest (in such a revival), but the question is what the Iranians are going to ask for, and if Washington is willing to give it."In recent months, Washington has repeatedly expressed readiness for direct talks with Iran. Tehran has declined, saying its conditions were not met.Foreign ministry spokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast has said Iran "respects the vote of the American people".But "the wall of mistrust can only be reduced if the US government respects the will and the rights of the Iranian people and changes its past mistaken policies".The second European ambassador sees hope nonetheless."Whether it's nuclear talks or a possible resumption of dialogue with Washington, the Iranians are insisting on what they call the recognition of their rights as well as mutual respect," he said."The wording is vague enough to allow solutions if both parties are open to it," he added. "The re-election of Obama in any case opens a window of a few weeks or months to overcome the crisis."As it stands, a new round of talks between Iran and six world powers, the first since June, is expected by the end of the year, or in early 2013, analysts say.Mark Fitzpatrick, nuclear expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said "it's pretty clear that the United States and its European allies are gearing up to try again for diplomatic engagement. But the question is, what will be on the table? Iran won't be making concessions unless it gets some form of sanctions relief," he said.As put by Mark Hibbs, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "There is reason for some optimism, but it is guarded optimism because in the final analysis it depends on whether Iran will 'play.' If they won't, all bets are off."

Greece passes crucial austerity bill

 

Greece's parliament passed a crucial austerity bill early on Thursday in a vote so close that it left the coalition government reeling from dissent.The bill, which will further slash pensions and salaries, passed 153-128 in the 300-member Parliament. It came hours after rioters rampaged outside parliament during an 80 000-strong anti-austerity demonstration, clashing with police who responded with tear gas, stun grenades and water cannons.Approval of the cuts and tax increases worth €13.5bn ($17bn) over two years was a big step for Greek efforts to secure the next installment of its international rescue loans and stave off imminent bankruptcy.The country's international creditors have demanded that the bill and the 2013 budget, due to be voted on Sunday, pass before they consider releasing an already delayed €31.5bn installment from Greece's €240bn bailout. Without it, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras says Greece will run out of money on November 16."Greece made a big decisive and optimistic step today. A step toward recovery," Samaras said, adding that he was "very happy" with the result.Development and growth for the country, which faces a sixth year of a deep recession in 2013, will come "only with a lot of work, with coordinated action, with investments," he said.But the close vote was a major political blow to the three-party coalition government, which holds a total of 176 seats in Parliament. The result shows support for continued austerity three years into Greece's financial crisis is dwindling fast."The government now has very little margin to take measures like this again," said Dimitris Mardas, associate professor of economics at the University of Thessaloniki. "But unless it takes various obvious actions like limiting the black economy, addressing tax evasion and improving the country's investment framework, we may end up needing new measures. And then things will be very difficult."Straight after the vote, two of the three coalition parties  Samaras' conservatives and former finance minister Evangelos Venizelos' socialists  expelled a total of seven dissenting deputies from their ranks.Lawmakers from the third, the small Democratic Left, mostly abstained from the vote in accordance with their party's line. Leader Fotis Kouvelis had said he could not back labour reforms included in the bill.During hours of acrimonious debate in parliament, Samaras acknowledged that some of the measures in the bill were unfair, but insisted they were vital to avoid bankruptcy and Greece being forced out of the euro zone and back to its old currency, the drachma."This (bill) will finally rid the country of drachmophobia," he said."Many of these measures are fair and should have been taken years ago, without anyone asking us to," Samaras said. Others are unfair cutting wages and salaries and there is no point in dressing this up as something else." But, he said, the alternative was bankruptcy that would trigger financial chaos as the country would likely have to leave the 17-country euro bloc.The measures are for next year and 2014, and include new, deep pension cuts and tax hikes, a two-year increase in the retirement age to 67, and laws that will make it easier to fire and transfer civil servants who are currently guaranteed jobs for life.The reforms aim to lower public debts but will in the process also hurt the economy, which is set to enter a sixth year of recession with unemployment at a record 25%."You are throwing people onto to the street, people who need a few more years till they get their pensions," said Panagiotis Lafazanis of the main opposition Syriza, or Radical Left, party. "What will happen to them? Will they starve?"

NEWS,27.07.2012

US drought woes deepen

The drought in America's breadbasket is intensifying at an unprecedented rate, experts warned on Thursday, driving concern food prices could soar if crops in the world's key producer are decimated.The US Drought Monitor reported a nearly threefold increase in areas of extreme drought over the past week in the nine Midwestern states where three quarters of the country's corn and soybean crops are produced."That expansion of D3 or extreme conditions intensified quite rapidly and we went from 11.9% to 28.9% in just one week," Brian Fuchs, a climatologist and Drought Monitor author, said."For myself, studying drought, that's rapid. We've seen a lot of things developing with this drought that were unprecedented, especially the speed."Almost two thirds of the continental United States are now suffering drought conditions, the largest area recorded since the Drought Monitor project started in 1999."If you are following the grain prices here in the US, they are reflecting the anticipated shortages with a price increase," Fuchs said."In turn, you're going to see those price increases trickle into the other areas that use those grain crops: cattle feed, ethanol production and then food stuffs."In some rural areas, municipal water suppliers are talking about mandatory restrictions because they have seen such a dramatic drop in the water table that they fear being unable to fulfill deliveries to customers, Fuchs said."Things have really developed over the last two months and conditions have worsened just that quick and that is really unprecedented," he added."Definitely exports are going to suffer because there is going to be less available and the markets are already reflecting that."It's anticipated that this drought is going to persist through the next couple of months at least and conditions are not overly favorable to see any widespread improvement. "President Barack Obama's administration has opened up protected US land to help farmers and ranchers hit by the drought and encouraged crop insurance companies to forgo charging interest for a month.Officials have said the drought will drive up food prices since 78% of US corn and 11% of soybean crops have been hit and the United States is the world's biggest producer of those crops.The current drought has been compared to a 1988 crisis that cut production by 20% and cost the economy tens of billions of dollars.The US Department of Agriculture issued retail price forecasts Wednesday for 2013 and they already showed an impact from the drought, with consumers expected to pay between three and four percent more for their groceries."The 2013 numbers reflect higher-than-average inflation which is partly a function of the drought and the higher crop prices," said Ephraim Leibtag of the USDA's Economic Research Service."The drought effects are starting now at the farm and agricultural level."Those things take two to 12 months to work through the system. So you'll see some effects as early as the fall (autumn) in terms of the grocery stores and restaurants, certainly later in the year and into 2013."The full impact of the drought on food prices won't be known for months."It's too early to tell as we don't know how much of the crop is going to be lost and how much higher corn and soybean prices will go," Leibtag said."We are not forecasting major impacts on retail food at this point. If the drought gets worse or corn and soybean prices rise even more, that would start to have a bigger impact."Even before the last week, farmers were telling AFP they may have to cut their losses  chopping down fields of half-mature, earless corn to feed the stalks to cattle.Weather forecasters predicted no respite.

ECB chief vows total support for euro

 

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi vowed unconditional support for the beleaguered euro on Thursday, sending markets soaring orbit as traders eyed further action from the bank to shore up the eurozone.In apparently unscripted comments in London, the normally reserved Draghi said his institution was "ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me it will be enough".Stressing that the euro was "irreversible", Draghi said that part of his bank's remit was to keep sovereign debt levels under control when they hampered the proper functioning of interest rate policy.Analysts saw Draghi's comment as a hint the ECB could soon reintroduce its hotly contested programme of buying up the bonds of struggling eurozone countries that has lain dormant for several months.As Spanish borrowing costs soared over seven percent earlier this week  the level that forced Ireland, Portugal and Greece into bailouts  the bank has come under increasing pressure to restart the programme.And Draghi's hints had an immediate impact on borrowing costs, with Spain's shooting below the seven-percent mark and Italian costs plummeting to just above six percent.The comments also sent stock markets into euphoric mood and boosted the euro on the foreign exchange markets after several days of painful declines amid fresh speculation the eurozone might implode or Spain might need a bailout.ABN Amro economist Nick Kounis said that Draghi had "opened the door for a restart of the central bank's government bond purchase programme", untapped since February."The crisis response looks likely to focus on direct intervention in the government bond market," he added.And CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said that Draghi's remarks "suggest that the ECB may well do something about capping rising bond yields".Attention would now turn to Draghi's monthly news conference in Frankfurt on August 2 "to see if he means what he says", the analyst added.Since the eurozone sovereign debt crisis erupted more than two and a half years ago, the ECB has won praise as the only European institution that has acted quickly and decisively to stem the turmoil.It has cut interest rates to a record low level of 0.75% and flooded banks with more than €1 trillion of ultra-cheap loans in a bid to stimulate lending and get the economy moving again.ECB officials have never ceased to repeat that such measures are only temporary and merely meant to buy time for governments to tackle the root causes of the crisis - profligate spending.Draghi insisted again in his London speech that the ECB did not want to "supplement actions that have to be taken by governments"."That is not our job," he insisted.But the central bank chief did praise efforts taken by EU leaders to fight the flames saying that "progress has been extraordinary in the last six months".Meanwhile, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, on his first visit to Athens since the crisis began, urged Greece to deliver on its obligations if it wishes to remain in the eurozone."To maintain the trust of its European and international partners, the delays must end. Words are not enough, actions are more important," Barroso said after talks with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras."All heads of states and governments of the euro area have stated in the clearest possible terms that Greece will stay in the euro as long as commitments made are honoured," Barroso told his hosts.Samaras, who leads a three-party coalition government that campaigned on keeping Greece in the eurozone, said he was "determined to go ahead with structural changes and privatisations and implement the measures agreed on in order to reduce the deficit".But the key measure demanded by EU-IMF lenders, whose auditors are again in Athens inspecting government books, now includes €11.6bn in new spending cuts, which is certain to face stiff resistance by Greeks.The IMF said on Thursday that it expected discussions with Greek authorities over the country's bailout-supported programme to continue into September, longer than expected.

NEWS,21.07.2012

Spain's economy wobbles amid bailout

Concerns about Spain's crippling financial problems flared again Friday as even news that the country had been given the final go-ahead for a bank bailout loan of up to $122.9 billion failed to take the sting out of a further round of bad economic news.Earlier Friday, finance ministers from the 17 countries that use the euro unanimously approved the terms for a bailout loan for Spain's banks, which have been struggling under the weight of toxic loans and assets from the collapse of the country's property market. Investors have been shying away from Spain for months, worried that the country could not keep control of its deficit during a recession while supporting its stricken financial sector.Spain is the 17-country eurozone's fourth-biggest economy, and many market watchers fear that if it asked for a bailout, the rest of the region could not afford to foot the bill. The country and its banks were also locked in a vicious debt spiral, where the shaky banking system has been propped up by the indebted government so that the banks could buy more government debt. The loan facility agreed to on Friday was designed to break that spiral.The bank agreement came as Spain cut its growth forecast and the heavily indebted Valencia region asked for financial help. The news sent the country's borrowing costs soaring and its stock prices plummeting. In afternoon trading, Spain's main IBEX index was down almost 6 percent, while the interest rate on the country's 10-year bond - an indicator of investor confidence in a country's ability to manage its debt - was at 7.2 percent. This is a rate that many market watchers consider too high a price for a country to pay in the long term.Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro on Friday forecast Spain's recession will drag on into 2013.Unemployment, now at 24.4 percent, will remain about the same next year, Montoro said.Meanwhile, the economy will shrink 1.5 percent this year, a slight improvement from the 1.7 percent drop previously predicted, he added.The government this week passed painful austerity measures - tax increases and cuts to benefits, salaries and pensions - to reduce state debt and strengthen confidence in its finances.Spaniards staged huge anti-austerity protests in 80 cities and towns across the country Thursday.

After PFGBest, 'Crisis' In Commodities Trading Could Impact Everyday Consumers

Experts warn of a crisis in the commodities trade that could impact everyday consumers. First, there was a banking crisis. Now, after the collapse of Peregrine Financial Group, commodities markets may be on the brink of their own emergency, which could reach consumers at the gas pump or the grocery store.The high-profile failure of two commodities brokerage firms in less than a year led to a crisis of confidence among traders of commodity futures agreements to buy and sell basic goods like corn, wheat and oil. If this market stops functioning properly, experts warn, consumer prices could fluctuate wildly.“The futures industry had long been considered a very strong place to put your money,” said John Lothian, a registered futures adviser who runs an industry news and analysis service. The collapse of Peregrine, which does business as PFGBest, has “absolutely caused a crisis,” he said. “It’s going to take a while for the industry to restore its own confidence.”The crisis took root last October with the well-publicized collapse of commodities brokerage MF Global, which lost $1.6 billion in customer funds. That was followed, earlier this month, with the failure of Peregrine, which imploded just before the firm’s founder, Russell Wasendorf, admitted to taking more than $100 million in customer cash over two decades.The failures have caused some traders to lose faith in both of the industry’s regulatory bodies -- the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association -- and the brokerage firms themselves. “I don’t know where to put my money to trade,” George Papagiannis, a lawyer and futures trader who lost money with Peregrine and MF Global, told The Huffington Post shortly after the PFG collapse. “I love to trade, but I don’t trust any broker now. So I’m not going to until I’m sure there’s good oversight."This sentiment could be bad news for regular consumers of basic commodities like oil and corn. Brokerages like Peregrine provide a platform for trading futures contracts, agreements to buy or sell a commodity like oil or corn at a set price in the future. Often farmers will trade futures to protect crop prices from unforeseeable fluctuations for example, a glut of commodities that causes prices to fall.“A collapse of a firm means that those commercial market participants who have to intelligently hedge their purchases have less and less faith in [the firms] with whom they’re investing,” said Gene Guilford, president of the Independent Connecticut Petroleum Association, a nonprofit association of gas and fuel oil dealers. “What ends up happening with a lack of faith is retailers end up hedging less of their purchases and leaving them open to the vicissitudes of the marketplace.”If farmers or oil dealers pull out of the markets, then there’s nothing to buffer commodity prices against unexpected fluctuations, meaning the everyday price of oil or corn could dip or spike wildly for average consumers, according to Guilford. Futures-trading volume in the first half of 2012 was down nearly 10 percent from the same period last year, according to data from the Futures Industry Association, the industry’s main lobbying group. In June trading volume was down more than 15 percent from June 2011. “We’re not on the cusp of a problem, we’re in a problem,” said Michael Greenberger, former director of trading and markets at the CFTC and current professor at the University of Maryland School of Law. “Nobody wants to trade.”Since the Peregrine collapse, blame also also fallen on regulators for failing to spot that fraud, despite years of audits and the collapse of MF Global only months before. On Wednesday, CFTC chair Gary Gensler told the Senate Agriculture Committee that "the system failed to protect the customers of Peregrine," only days after the CFTC rushed approval of new rules designed to protect brokerage customers. Those rules include a requirement that brokers file daily reports on the state of segregated customer accounts.But the reforms might not address the root of the problem. According to Greenberger, federal regulators simply don’t have the resources to keep up with the brokerage firms, leaving the door wide open to fraud. “The system is weak because it’s not adequately supervised by the CFTC,” he said, adding that the CFTC is being “starved” for cash. In June, congressional Republicans voted to slash the CFTC budget by about 12 percent, or $25 million. Experts warn that without proper regulatory oversight, there’s little chance that confidence will return to the commodities markets. “It would be one thing if it were just one firm, MF Global," said Lynn Turner, former chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission, now managing director at consulting firm LitiNomics. “Now we've had a couple [of brokerage failures], and I can't help but feel there are others out there. But for the grace of God, this could happen again.”

NEWS,14.07.2012

JPMorgan Traders May Have Hidden Losses, Could Face Criminal Charges

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co said its traders may have deliberately hidden losses that have since climbed to $5.8 billion for the year, in a development that may result in criminal charges against traders at the bank.The losses came from bets on corporate debt now known as the "London Whale" trades made at JPMorgan's Chief Investment Office. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said that in the worst-case scenario the derivatives trades would lose another $1.7 billion, and that the bank has fixed the CIO problems.Investors cheered the bank for capping losses and taking steps to ensure it avoids similar bad bets in the future. JPMorgan's shares rose nearly 6 percent on Friday.Even with the trading losses, JPMorgan earned nearly $5 billion overall in the second quarter, thanks to its strong performance in areas such as mortgage lending.The trading losses may be mostly over, but with the disclosure that traders may have lied about their losses, regulatory and legal consequences will linger for some time. Blame for the problems at the CIO office may go further up the management chain to some of the most senior executives at the firm, lawyers said.A source said that federal criminal investigators are looking at people at JPMorgan in London, where the CIO's risky bets were placed. The criminal investigation began in earnest in the past few weeks after JP Morgan's internal investigation uncovered that CIO traders may have intentionally masked losses, the source said."I see little doubt that someone is going to get charged with fraud," said Bill Singer, a lawyer at Herskovits in New York who provides legal counsel to securities industry firms, and publishes the BrokeandBroker website.Authorities ranging from the FBI to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are probing the bank. The SEC could charge JPMorgan with weaknesses in oversight and internal controls, said James Cox, a securities law expert at Duke University."I think the SEC will continue to look at 'What exactly did Jamie Dimon know and when did he know it?'" Cox said.An internal review found that some of the CIO traders appear to have deliberately ignored the massive size of their trades - and the difficulty in liquidating them - when valuing their positions. The result was not reporting the full declines in the value of positions, which is forcing JPMorgan to restate its first-quarter results. The bank is cooperating with authorities.The trading losses and possible deception from traders are a black eye for Dimon, who was respected for keeping his bank consistently profitable during the financial crisis. Dimon, who has criticized regulators for meddling too much with banks, has lost credibility because of difficulties in his own house."How do we know there are not more roaches in the kitchen?" said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, referring to the maxim that seeing a single roach typically means there are far more hiding in the woodwork.The Chief Investment Office became infamous in May when JPMorgan said bad derivatives bets had triggered about $2 billion of paper losses, a figure that turned into $4.4 billion of actual losses in the second quarter.One trader in the CIO, Bruno Iksil, took big enough positions in the credit derivatives markets to earn the nickname "The London Whale." He made at least some of the big bets that caused trouble for the bank, and has since left JPMorgan, a source said on Friday.Ina Drew, who headed the CIO, has also left, and offered to give back as much of her pay as the bank was contractually entitled take back, said Dimon, whose pay could be taken back as well. A spokesman for the bank said JPMorgan had accepted Drew's offer.The bank said it had moved the bad trades from the CIO, which invests some of the company's excess funds, to its investment bank. JPMorgan was one of the inventors of credit derivatives, and its investment bank is one of the biggest traders of the product on Wall Street.The CIO will now focus on conservative investments, JPMorgan said. The bank has taken a number of other steps to prevent these types of losses from repeating, including changing the way it limits risk taking in the CIO's office."People feel good that the loss is largely contained at this point," said Nancy Bush, a banking analyst at independent research firm NAB Research.JPMorgan said later on Friday that its former CIO risk officer, Irvin Goldman, had resigned. Goldman "behaved with integrity and we wish him well," JPMorgan said.JPMorgan's shares rose $2.03 to close at $36.07 on the New York Stock Exchange.THE TEMPEST LEAVES THE TEAPOT The bank posted second-quarter net income of $4.96 billion, or $1.21 a share, compared with $5.43 billion, or $1.27 a share, a year earlier.The derivative loss after taxes reduced earnings per share by 69 cents, the company said.JPMorgan said it expected to file new, restated first-quarter results in the coming weeks, reflecting a $459 million reduction of income because of bad valuations on some of its trading positions. The bank found material problems with its financial controls during the period.The bank said its internal investigation combed through over a million emails, tens of thousands of taped conversations, and other evidence. It learned that some traders may have intended not to value their trading positions at the proper levels.In particular, the traders recorded the value of their trades at current market prices, rather than prices they would get if they liquidated their large positions, in an effort to avoid reporting their full paper losses.The bank made trades that were intended to protect it against the credit markets tanking, but allowed those positions to morph into bets on credit markets getting better.Friday's financial report came three months to the day after Dimon, 56, told stock analysts that news reports about Iksil and looming losses in London were a "tempest in a teapot."That remark, which Dimon told Congress last month was "dead wrong," added to the damage the loss has done to his reputation and his argument that his bank is not too big to be managed safely.A host of international regulators and agencies are probing the trading mishap. Besides the FBI and the SEC, they the UK's Financial Services Authority, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Treasury's Office for the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Libor Scandal May Hit U.S. Banks Harder Than Their British Counterparts

 

Barclays Plc and other UK banks may escape lighter than their U.S. rivals if shareholders seek damages in the wake of an interest rate-rigging scandal, because such cases are costlier and harder to win in Britain.Cases pursued in America by investors alleging they suffered a loss because of the wrongdoing of a financial institution, will often be deemed ineligible to be heard in U.S. courts when the bank in question is foreign, legal experts said.But if investors opt to take their cases to UK courts, they will find Britain's legal structures make such claims harder to win, costlier and riskier."Would we like to sue Barclays in the New York courts weknow well and we're very good at prosecuting in? Sure. But we're not going to because this is a UK situation," said Dominic Auld, a litigation expert at U.S. law firm Labaton Sucharow.Since Barclays admitted its role in manipulating the London interbank offered rate (Libor), lawyers on both sides of the Atlantic are taking calls from investors."I did take a call this morning from an institutional investor who is interested in looking at litigation both from a UK perspective and the U.S ... I expect there will be a good deal of similar interest," said Owen Watkins, a barrister in the corporate department of London law firm Lewis Silkin.More than a dozen banks are being investigated for their roles in setting Libor, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc , UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland..Morgan Stanley analysts have calculated the litigation risk to each of the 16 banks involved in setting Libor, an estimate of the rate at which banks could lend to each other and a benchmark for setting many other types of loans, at between $60 million to $1.1 billion. But lawyers say that while it was once commonplace for European investors to issue proceedings in the States, this transatlantic "legal tourism" was brought to an effective end in 2010 by a Supreme Court ruling in the United States.In a case brought against National Australia Bank, the court ruled U.S. securities laws do not have jurisdiction over so-called "F cubed" cases involving foreign investors and a foreign company traded on a non-U.S. market In the case of Barclays, only about 4 percent of its market capitalisation is traded in the U.S. in the form of American Depository Receipts. Any pursuit of meaningful damages from investment losses related to falls in Barclays' share price caused by the scandal will have to be carried out in Britain."Bringing proceedings here is not easy because there are various questions about causation. But most importantly Barclays would fight hard and you take a substantial risk in relation to costs that you would have to pay if you lost," said David Greene, senior partner at London-based law firm Edwin Coe.Furthermore, proceedings by institutional investors are rare and run against the traditions of the City of London financial district which had in part prompted disgruntled investors to make claims in the United States until it was halted by the F-cubed ruling."I don't think that sort of thing would be held in a UK court. I think they would just say the nature of the capital markets is shares go down as well as up. It's the guiding principle here," said one institutional investor who declined to be named because he is a major Barclays shareholder.