NEWS,13.08.2012

An Impediment or an Opportunity for Peace?

 

There is an ongoing debate in and outside of Israel as to whether or not this is the right time to forge peace with the Palestinians in light of the regional upheavals and instability. The peace process, at this juncture, is hopelessly frozen while the expansion of the Israeli settlements and the continued internal Palestinian strife and factionalism increasingly dims the prospect of reaching an agreement. That said, the Arab Spring, which has triggered the rise of the Arab youth against their governments and has been accompanied by uncertainty, is not an impediment but an opportunity to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution. The reality on the ground strongly suggests that maintaining the status quo will be particularly detrimental to Israel.Those inside the Netanyahu government who suggest that now is not the right time to seek a peace agreement with the Palestinians because of the regional turmoil and the existential threats that Israel now faces are both misguided and disingenuous. On the contrary, given the threats from Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah and the potential consequences of a failed state in Syria, it is a particularly critical moment for Israel to forge peace with the Palestinians. By doing so, Israel would be in a position to focus on the vastly more serious threats emanating from its real adversaries and would prevent the rise of a Palestinian fifth column, should Israel become mired in these regional conflicts. To enhance their positions, those who oppose peace now offer three faulty arguments to justify their stance.First, the Palestinians cannot be trusted and Israel "correctly" points to the precedents of the partial disengagement from the West Bank between 1993 and 2000, the complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 and the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. From the Israeli perspective, all of these moments attest to the Palestinians' inability or unwillingness to forge a permanent peace, despite having ample opportunities.Second, due to Palestinian factionalism and infighting, there is no credible partner with whom Israel can negotiate as the Palestinians have been unable to sustain a unity government. The Netanyahu government is convinced that even if an agreement is reached, it will still prove transient.Third, there are extremist Palestinian groups, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others, along with non-Palestinian factions, including Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, that are vehemently antagonistic toward Israel and remain committed to its destruction.However, none of the three arguments above can pass careful scrutiny. These types of arguments are used as excuses and a cover for the Netanyahu government's deep conviction that the Jews have an inherent right to whole "land of Israel". This remains an indefatigable nonstarter to reaching a peace agreement that requires significant territorial concessions, including the conversion of Jerusalem to the capital of Israeli and Palestinian states. From the Netanyahu government's perspective, the conditions of no peace and no war that currently prevail are preferable to a compromise of the Jews' historical rights and through a strong and determined will, Israel will eventually triumph.In light of the reality on the ground, which both the Israelis and the Palestinians alike must face by virtue of their inevitable coexistence, Israel must act now because the passage of time may well be to its detriment, if not its very existence. There are three critical issues that increasingly work against Israel.Considering Israel's demographic situation, its evolutionary path has shifted radically as emigration from Israel over the past two decades (about one million) is roughly equal to the immigration into Israel for the same period. This, along with low birth rates relative to the Palestinian population, continues to erode the sustainability of Israel's national character as a Jewish state. Should this growing demographic imbalance between the Jewish and Palestinian populations continue, Israel will be forced to either establish a single state (an unacceptable proposition for them as it will instantly make the Jewish population a minority) or resort to apartheid policies that will be vehemently rejected by the international community.In recent years Israel has been fortunate that Gaza and the West Bank were generally quiet with limited resistance to the occupation and only marginal rocket attacks from Gaza that the Israeli military was able to handle with ease. Maintaining the occupation, however, and the continuance of the creeping expansion of the settlements, coupled with the uprisings of Arab youth against their own governments, now make it only a matter of time before the Palestinians will be inspired, if not forced, to rise against the occupation. They will not remain indefinitely passive, as they clearly see that the longer they wait, the more their land will be consumed, resulting in an irreversible reality on the ground that will deny the rise of an independent and viable state.Moreover, Israel will continue to face intensifying pressure from the international community due to the perpetuation of the status quo, which will dramatically increase Israel's isolation. For the United States and the European Union, who continue to be steadfast supporters of Israel, the lack of progress has a destabilizing effect on the region, which directly and indirectly impacts their national strategic interests and undermines Israel's national security. Israel should not be surprised if its closest allies, especially the U.S., decide to advance their own frameworks for peace largely based on prior Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in an attempt to save Israel from charting its own disastrous path.In a broader context, Israel's current enemies, specifically Iran and Hezbollah, will continue to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to their advantage. To counteract this encroaching threat, Israel can at least begin to neutralize its antagonists' positions by taking steps that open the door for a negotiated solution and normalization of relations with the Arab states by accepting the Arab Peace Initiative as a basis for negotiations. While this strategy may not initially and necessarily change the principle objection to Israel's very existence by actors such as Iran and Hezbollah, Israel could shift the geopolitical conditions in the region in its favor. As I was convincingly told time and time again by top Arab officials, the Arab states are prepared to move toward establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel once an Israeli-Palestinian peace is achieved. They cite the changing dynamics in the region in the wake of the Arab spring and the ensuing battle between Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Shiites led by Iran who seeks regional hegemony.Despite the complex situation that Israel finds itself in, the basic question remains: how much longer can it sustain its present course without experiencing horrific and self-inflicted wounds? Israel must face the inevitable now while it is still in a strong position to negotiate an agreement with the Palestinians, a population that has, and can continue to, withstand the test of time. Unlike the precipitous withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza, any agreement with the Palestinians should be made with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and should be based on a quid pro quo that would involve phased withdrawals from the West Bank over a few years in order to foster mutual trust and normalization of relations while ensuring Israel's national security.Set against the context of the Arab Spring, Israel remains an oasis of stability with its economic, military and technological advantages continuing to strengthen over time. The inability of the Palestinians to change the dynamics in their favor has deepened the Israelis' complacency while removing any sense of urgency to solve the conflict, as they remain intoxicated by their military prowess and the deceptive calm before the storm. Simply put, passively waiting for the region to achieve a modicum of stability while Israel further entrenches itself in the territories is a non-starter as the Arab upheavals are not a fading phenomenon and will remain an engine of change for years, if not decades, to come. The Palestinian's turn will come sooner than expected.I must emphasize that the Palestinians, by their own violent actions and hostile public utterances, have directly contributed to the Israelis' skepticism and deepening of their conviction that the Palestinians are not partners to be trusted nor are they a population with whom they can negotiate a lasting peace. That said, it is up to Israel not to allow past experiences to blur its vision for the future and it must now chart its own future course by ending the occupation under specific "rules of disengagement" with the Palestinian Authority. Israel must never abandon the principles of equality and human rights regardless of race, color or religion, as they are the very basis on which the state arose from the ashes of the Holocaust.Netanyahu will eventually have to answer to the Israeli public as to what he has achieved over the past four years. The Israelis must now determine whether or not Netanyahu has made the conflict with the Palestinians considerably worse since he took office in 2009 and what price Israel will have to pay for his misguided and ominous policies.

Greek economy shrinks 6.2%

The Greek economy, struggling in a fifth year of recession, shrank 6.2% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, official data showed on Monday.The economy contracted 6.5% in the first quarter, worse than the initially given 6.2%, according to revised figures issued in June.The Bank of Greece expects the economy to shrink 4.5% for 2012 as a whole, following a 6.9% drop last year.The country is relying on two financial rescue packages backed by the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank worth around €240bn for its economic survival.Last year, private creditors agreed to write-off more than €100bn in debt, roughly half the amount they were owed, as part of a second bailout programme.Harsh austerity measures and economic reforms linked to the aid agreements have taken their toll on the economy, with unemployment hitting record highs.The conservative-led coalition government has yet to finalise spending cuts of about €11.5bn in order to unlock its next aid installment worth some €31bn.

UK tourism slumps during Olympics

The Olympics brought less tourist money to recession-hit Britain than officials promised, a trade group said on Monday, with a majority of businesses reporting losses from last year A survey of more than 250 tour operators, hoteliers and visitor attractions found that tourist traffic fell all over Britain, not just London, said UK inbound, a leading trade association representing British tour operators said. The survey said 88% of British tourism-oriented businesses reported some losses during the games compared with the same period last year. Officials are still tallying up the total number of tourists who came to or avoided  London this summer. The capital normally sees about 1.5 million tourists on average in August, but UK inbound and other trade groups say a significant number have chosen to steer clear of London, and even the rest of Britain because they thought it would be too busy. The official visitor figures won't be available until September. Tourism officials say that international Olympics visitors to London, including athletes, officials and tourists, totalled about 300 000. Domestic spectators from Britain made up the majority of people visiting games venues Restaurants and shops have complained that these games visitors did not spend as much money on food and shopping as typical summer tourists. "The people who came to the Games really didn't do very much sightseeing, didn't do very much shopping, didn't do very much eating out,"said Miles Quest, a spokesperson for the British Hospitality Association.London's hotels have hit about 80% occupancy, not more than typical August rates, Quest added.Visa, the only credit card accepted at the Olympics, reported that international visitors to Britain spent more than £450m ($705m) on their cards during the first week of the games, up by 8% on the same time last year.Around £12.7ms were spent on Visa cards in London restaurants last week, an increase of almost 20% on a year ago.

NEWS,18.06.2012

Greek leaders seek coalition, want to ease bailout

Greece's conservative leader has pushed for a new coalition government after a narrow election victory, pledging to soften the debt-laden country's punishing austerity programe despite opposition from Germany.A brief relief rally on international financial markets after Sunday's Greek vote quickly fizzled out as it became clear that Antonis Samaras's New Democracy had failed to win a convincing popular mandate to implement the deep spending cuts and tax increases demanded by the European Union and the IMF.Radical left-wing bloc SYRIZA and a host of smaller parties opposed to the punishing conditions attached to the $206 billion bailout won around half the votes cast, though fewer seats because the electoral system rewards the first placed party disproportionately.Samaras received a mandate to form a coalition government from the president today, but talks looked set to run into at least tomorrow. He said the country would meet its commitments under a bailout saving the country from bankruptcy and a dramatic exit from the euro zone.But Samaras added: "We will simultaneously have to make some necessary amendments to the bailout agreement, in order to relieve the people of crippling unemployment and huge hardships."Samaras met with SYRIZA's charismatic leader Alexis Tsipras, who ruled out joining the government, and with the third-placed PASOK Socialists, who did not commit. PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos said negotiations "must be wrapped up" on Tuesday.The small Democratic Left party indicated it would be ready to support Samaras if the bailout deal could be softened.Greece's economy is forecast to contract 5% this year after shrinking 7% last year. Protests regularly choke the centre of Athens, some hospitals are running short of medicines, thousands of businesses have closed and beggars and rough sleepers are multiplying.During the election campaign, Samaras called for cuts in taxes, hikes in unemployment benefits, pension rises and two more years to meet fiscal targets.But Germany, already irritated at what it sees as the slow pace of Greek reform, ruled out more than minor delays to some targets in the rescue package - Greece's second since 2010.Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking at a meeting of G20 leaders in Mexico, said any loosening of Greece's agreed reform pledges would be unacceptable and reiterated that Athens had to stick to the commitments it had already made.Germany says deal "not negotiable" Samaras voted in 2010 against the first $174 billion rescue because he thought it was too harsh. He now said Greece should have until 2016, not 2014, to meet fiscal targets set by under the bailout. Venizelos wants a further year to reform.German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the substance of the bailout agreement was "not negotiable", but he said creditors might be willing to offer some flexibility on timing for some of the targets, given the time lost in campaigning."We're ready to talk about the time frame as we can't ignore the lost weeks, and we don't want people to suffer because of that," he told German radio today.There was frustration in Berlin that Samaras had campaigned on a promise to renegotiate the bailout, given the scale of resistance among those stumping up the cash.European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen warned that extending the 2014 deadline for Greece to cut its budget deficit to below three percent of GDP would mean fresh money for Athens."I can only generally point out that if one is pressing to shift fiscal targets, one should be so honest to also say that as long as a country is running a primary deficit, extending the fiscal targets will automatically mean that there will be an additional external financing need," Asmussen said.With an emboldened SYRIZA bloc led by former communist student leader Tsipras at the head of a powerful opposition, the new government could face protests soon after taking office. SYRIZA almost doubled its share of the vote since a previous election on May 6, which produced stalemate.

US and EU haggle over trade barriers

The United States and the European Union, stung by past failures to liberalize trade, are struggling over how to tackle regulatory barriers in areas ranging from financial services to chemicals that pose the biggest obstacle to a transatlantic free trade pact.A joint US-EU working group is due to deliver interim recommendations this month on how to leverage one of the world's largest trade relationships to create more jobs on both sides of the Atlantic and bolster economic growth.Businesses both in the United States and Europe want Washington and Brussels to strike a deal that removes trade hurdles by requiring both to accept each other's consumer- and environmental-protection standards.They envision an agreement in which a car tested for safety in the United States would not have to be tested again in Europe, or a drug deemed safe by Brussels would not have to be approved by US government experts.There's a good chance the upcoming report from the team led by US Trade Representative Ron Kirk and European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht will be no more than a "stock-taking" of the talks so far, with the real meat of the recommendations in a final report near the end of the year.Peter Rashish, vice president for Europe and Eurasia at the US Chamber of Commerce, said he hopes for a forward-leaning document that sets the stage for ambitious talks that would begin when the final report is put out."We need a strong statement that a US-EU trade deal would be a big boost to jobs and growth, given the challenges both the US and the EU economy face right now," Rashish said.The United States and the EU have proven records of sealing bilateral free trade agreements, including deals each has struck with South Korea that some have suggested be used a template for a transatlantic pact.Also, tariffs on manufactured goods traded between the two economic blocs are generally low, and there are few sectors where dismantling the remaining tariffs would create political opposition to a pact. That has raised hopes a deal to eliminate the remaining duties could be struck quickly once talks begin.Drag on for years Even so, US and EU officials worry about launching negotiations that could drag on for years without success, such as the Doha round of world trade talks, which started in 2001 and never reached an agreement.A joint effort late in the administration of former President George W. Bush to eliminate European barriers to US poultry exports flopped so badly that the United States in frustration filed a case against the EU at the World Trade Organization."What you've got is a deep-seated suspicion on each side that the other side can't deliver," said Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, which represents major US exporters like Boeing, Caterpillar and Microsoft.Reinsch noted that the United States has disappointed the EU in recent talks on allowing foreign firms to bid on more US state and local government contracts."So there's this extensive poking around to figure what can be delivered," Reinsch said.Recent consultations have driven home how difficult it could be to address regulatory differences that impede trade in areas from food to chemicals to financial services, although both sides see a potentially big payoff from achieving that."What is really bothering companies on both sides of the Atlantic right now is not so much tariffs, but the duplication of regulatory requirements," a European official said.Those are harder to tackle because they involve regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration, the European Medicines Agency and the European Food Safety Authority that are outside the purview of typical trade agreements."I think the regulatory piece is certainly the most challenging and I think we have to agree on what success would look like on regulatory matters" within the 18 to 24 months both sides hope it will take to reach a deal, Rashish said.That would probably require a recognition that some issues will still need further work after an initial free trade agreement is signed, he said.The US Chamber of Commerce has proposed starting with areas, such as autos, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, where the two sides have comparable, high-level standards to protect consumers and the environment but different specific requirements for The idea would be that after determining that US and EU regulatory regimes produce similar levels of protection, agreements would be reached to recognize each other's requirements in those areas as essentially equivalent, thereby removing them as barriers to trade, and setting a foundation for moving into additional areas, Rashish said.