NEWS,13.08.2012

An Impediment or an Opportunity for Peace?

 

There is an ongoing debate in and outside of Israel as to whether or not this is the right time to forge peace with the Palestinians in light of the regional upheavals and instability. The peace process, at this juncture, is hopelessly frozen while the expansion of the Israeli settlements and the continued internal Palestinian strife and factionalism increasingly dims the prospect of reaching an agreement. That said, the Arab Spring, which has triggered the rise of the Arab youth against their governments and has been accompanied by uncertainty, is not an impediment but an opportunity to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution. The reality on the ground strongly suggests that maintaining the status quo will be particularly detrimental to Israel.Those inside the Netanyahu government who suggest that now is not the right time to seek a peace agreement with the Palestinians because of the regional turmoil and the existential threats that Israel now faces are both misguided and disingenuous. On the contrary, given the threats from Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah and the potential consequences of a failed state in Syria, it is a particularly critical moment for Israel to forge peace with the Palestinians. By doing so, Israel would be in a position to focus on the vastly more serious threats emanating from its real adversaries and would prevent the rise of a Palestinian fifth column, should Israel become mired in these regional conflicts. To enhance their positions, those who oppose peace now offer three faulty arguments to justify their stance.First, the Palestinians cannot be trusted and Israel "correctly" points to the precedents of the partial disengagement from the West Bank between 1993 and 2000, the complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 and the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. From the Israeli perspective, all of these moments attest to the Palestinians' inability or unwillingness to forge a permanent peace, despite having ample opportunities.Second, due to Palestinian factionalism and infighting, there is no credible partner with whom Israel can negotiate as the Palestinians have been unable to sustain a unity government. The Netanyahu government is convinced that even if an agreement is reached, it will still prove transient.Third, there are extremist Palestinian groups, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others, along with non-Palestinian factions, including Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, that are vehemently antagonistic toward Israel and remain committed to its destruction.However, none of the three arguments above can pass careful scrutiny. These types of arguments are used as excuses and a cover for the Netanyahu government's deep conviction that the Jews have an inherent right to whole "land of Israel". This remains an indefatigable nonstarter to reaching a peace agreement that requires significant territorial concessions, including the conversion of Jerusalem to the capital of Israeli and Palestinian states. From the Netanyahu government's perspective, the conditions of no peace and no war that currently prevail are preferable to a compromise of the Jews' historical rights and through a strong and determined will, Israel will eventually triumph.In light of the reality on the ground, which both the Israelis and the Palestinians alike must face by virtue of their inevitable coexistence, Israel must act now because the passage of time may well be to its detriment, if not its very existence. There are three critical issues that increasingly work against Israel.Considering Israel's demographic situation, its evolutionary path has shifted radically as emigration from Israel over the past two decades (about one million) is roughly equal to the immigration into Israel for the same period. This, along with low birth rates relative to the Palestinian population, continues to erode the sustainability of Israel's national character as a Jewish state. Should this growing demographic imbalance between the Jewish and Palestinian populations continue, Israel will be forced to either establish a single state (an unacceptable proposition for them as it will instantly make the Jewish population a minority) or resort to apartheid policies that will be vehemently rejected by the international community.In recent years Israel has been fortunate that Gaza and the West Bank were generally quiet with limited resistance to the occupation and only marginal rocket attacks from Gaza that the Israeli military was able to handle with ease. Maintaining the occupation, however, and the continuance of the creeping expansion of the settlements, coupled with the uprisings of Arab youth against their own governments, now make it only a matter of time before the Palestinians will be inspired, if not forced, to rise against the occupation. They will not remain indefinitely passive, as they clearly see that the longer they wait, the more their land will be consumed, resulting in an irreversible reality on the ground that will deny the rise of an independent and viable state.Moreover, Israel will continue to face intensifying pressure from the international community due to the perpetuation of the status quo, which will dramatically increase Israel's isolation. For the United States and the European Union, who continue to be steadfast supporters of Israel, the lack of progress has a destabilizing effect on the region, which directly and indirectly impacts their national strategic interests and undermines Israel's national security. Israel should not be surprised if its closest allies, especially the U.S., decide to advance their own frameworks for peace largely based on prior Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in an attempt to save Israel from charting its own disastrous path.In a broader context, Israel's current enemies, specifically Iran and Hezbollah, will continue to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to their advantage. To counteract this encroaching threat, Israel can at least begin to neutralize its antagonists' positions by taking steps that open the door for a negotiated solution and normalization of relations with the Arab states by accepting the Arab Peace Initiative as a basis for negotiations. While this strategy may not initially and necessarily change the principle objection to Israel's very existence by actors such as Iran and Hezbollah, Israel could shift the geopolitical conditions in the region in its favor. As I was convincingly told time and time again by top Arab officials, the Arab states are prepared to move toward establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel once an Israeli-Palestinian peace is achieved. They cite the changing dynamics in the region in the wake of the Arab spring and the ensuing battle between Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Shiites led by Iran who seeks regional hegemony.Despite the complex situation that Israel finds itself in, the basic question remains: how much longer can it sustain its present course without experiencing horrific and self-inflicted wounds? Israel must face the inevitable now while it is still in a strong position to negotiate an agreement with the Palestinians, a population that has, and can continue to, withstand the test of time. Unlike the precipitous withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza, any agreement with the Palestinians should be made with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and should be based on a quid pro quo that would involve phased withdrawals from the West Bank over a few years in order to foster mutual trust and normalization of relations while ensuring Israel's national security.Set against the context of the Arab Spring, Israel remains an oasis of stability with its economic, military and technological advantages continuing to strengthen over time. The inability of the Palestinians to change the dynamics in their favor has deepened the Israelis' complacency while removing any sense of urgency to solve the conflict, as they remain intoxicated by their military prowess and the deceptive calm before the storm. Simply put, passively waiting for the region to achieve a modicum of stability while Israel further entrenches itself in the territories is a non-starter as the Arab upheavals are not a fading phenomenon and will remain an engine of change for years, if not decades, to come. The Palestinian's turn will come sooner than expected.I must emphasize that the Palestinians, by their own violent actions and hostile public utterances, have directly contributed to the Israelis' skepticism and deepening of their conviction that the Palestinians are not partners to be trusted nor are they a population with whom they can negotiate a lasting peace. That said, it is up to Israel not to allow past experiences to blur its vision for the future and it must now chart its own future course by ending the occupation under specific "rules of disengagement" with the Palestinian Authority. Israel must never abandon the principles of equality and human rights regardless of race, color or religion, as they are the very basis on which the state arose from the ashes of the Holocaust.Netanyahu will eventually have to answer to the Israeli public as to what he has achieved over the past four years. The Israelis must now determine whether or not Netanyahu has made the conflict with the Palestinians considerably worse since he took office in 2009 and what price Israel will have to pay for his misguided and ominous policies.

Greek economy shrinks 6.2%

The Greek economy, struggling in a fifth year of recession, shrank 6.2% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, official data showed on Monday.The economy contracted 6.5% in the first quarter, worse than the initially given 6.2%, according to revised figures issued in June.The Bank of Greece expects the economy to shrink 4.5% for 2012 as a whole, following a 6.9% drop last year.The country is relying on two financial rescue packages backed by the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank worth around €240bn for its economic survival.Last year, private creditors agreed to write-off more than €100bn in debt, roughly half the amount they were owed, as part of a second bailout programme.Harsh austerity measures and economic reforms linked to the aid agreements have taken their toll on the economy, with unemployment hitting record highs.The conservative-led coalition government has yet to finalise spending cuts of about €11.5bn in order to unlock its next aid installment worth some €31bn.

UK tourism slumps during Olympics

The Olympics brought less tourist money to recession-hit Britain than officials promised, a trade group said on Monday, with a majority of businesses reporting losses from last year A survey of more than 250 tour operators, hoteliers and visitor attractions found that tourist traffic fell all over Britain, not just London, said UK inbound, a leading trade association representing British tour operators said. The survey said 88% of British tourism-oriented businesses reported some losses during the games compared with the same period last year. Officials are still tallying up the total number of tourists who came to or avoided  London this summer. The capital normally sees about 1.5 million tourists on average in August, but UK inbound and other trade groups say a significant number have chosen to steer clear of London, and even the rest of Britain because they thought it would be too busy. The official visitor figures won't be available until September. Tourism officials say that international Olympics visitors to London, including athletes, officials and tourists, totalled about 300 000. Domestic spectators from Britain made up the majority of people visiting games venues Restaurants and shops have complained that these games visitors did not spend as much money on food and shopping as typical summer tourists. "The people who came to the Games really didn't do very much sightseeing, didn't do very much shopping, didn't do very much eating out,"said Miles Quest, a spokesperson for the British Hospitality Association.London's hotels have hit about 80% occupancy, not more than typical August rates, Quest added.Visa, the only credit card accepted at the Olympics, reported that international visitors to Britain spent more than £450m ($705m) on their cards during the first week of the games, up by 8% on the same time last year.Around £12.7ms were spent on Visa cards in London restaurants last week, an increase of almost 20% on a year ago.

NEWS,22.05.2012.

Deal on probe reached with Iran: UN

Despite some remaining differences, a deal has been reached with Iran that will allow the UN nuclear agency to restart a long-stalled probe into suspicions that Tehran has secretly worked on developing nuclear arms, the UN nuclear chief said on Tuesday.

 

The news from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Yukiya Amano, who returned from Tehran on Tuesday, comes just a day before Iran and six world powers meet in Baghdad for negotiations and could present a significant turning point in the heated dispute over Iran's nuclear intentions. The six nations hope the talks will result in an agreement by the Islamic Republic to stop enriching uranium to a higher level that could be turned quickly into the fissile core of nuclear arms.Iran denies it seeks nuclear arms and says its reactors are only for power and medical applications.By compromising on the IAEA probe, Iranian negotiators in Baghdad could argue that the onus was now on the other side to show some flexibility and temper its demands. Although Amano's trip and the talks in Baghdad are formally separate, Iran hopes progress with the IAEA can boost its chances on Wednesday in pressing the US and Europe to roll back sanctions that have hit Iran's critical oil exports and blacklisted the country from international banking networks.Differences no obstacleIt was unclear, though, how far the results achieved by Amano would serve that purpose, with him returning without the two sides signing the deal, despite his upbeat comments.After talks in Tehran between Amano and chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, "the decision was made... to reach agreement" on the mechanics of giving the IAEA access to sites, scientists and documents it seeks to restart its probe", Amano told reporters at Vienna airport after his one-day trip to Tehran.Amano said differences existed on "some details", without elaborating but added that Jalili had assured him that these "will not be an obstacle to reach agreement". He spoke of "an almost clean text" that will be signed soon, although he could not say when.Western diplomats are sceptical of Iran's willingness to open past and present activities to full perusal, believing it would only reveal what they suspect and Tehran denies - that the Islamic Republic has researched and developed components of a nuclear weapons programme. They say that Tehran's readiness to honour any agreement it has signed is the true test of its willingness to co-operateThe United States is among those sceptics. In a statement released soon after Amano's announcement, Robert A Wood, America's chief delegate to the nuclear agency, said Washington appreciated Amano's efforts but remained "concerned by the urgent obligation for Iran to take concrete steps to co-operate fully with the verification efforts of the IAEA, based on IAEA verification practices".Good intentions"We urge Iran to take this opportunity to resolve all outstanding concerns about the nature of its nuclear programme," said the statement. "Full and transparent co-operation with the IAEA is the first logical step."German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle also urged Iran to put professed good intentions into action."Enduring and substantial co-operation by Iran with the International Atomic Energy Agency to clear up the open questions surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme would be an important and at the same time overdue step in the right direction," he said in a statement.
On the Baghdad talks, "the aim is to make progress not just atmospherically but also on substance," he said, reflecting Western views that the feel-good effect achieved at a previous round in Istanbul last month must now be built upon with concrete steps aimed at reducing international concerns over Tehran's nuclear agenda.For the six powers - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - a main concern is Iran's production of uranium enriched to 20%, which is far higher than needed for regular energy-producing reactors but used for one Iran says it needs for medical research.The US and its allies fear the higher-enriched uranium could be quickly boosted to warhead-grade material.Israel against concessionsUS officials have said Washington will not backpedal from its stance that Iran must fully halt uranium enrichment. But speculation is increasing that the priorities have shifted to block the 20% enrichment and perhaps allow Iran to maintain lower-level nuclear fuel production - at least for now.Iranian officials could package such a scenario as a victory for their domestic audience. In Israel, it would likely be greeted with dismay and widen rifts between President Barack Obama's US administration and Israeli officials who keep open the threat of military action against Iran's nuclear sites.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned against concessions, saying world powers should make "clear and unequivocal demands" that Iran stop all of its nuclear enrichment activity.
"Iran wants to destroy Israel and it is developing nuclear weapons to fulfil that goal," Netanyahu said at a conference in Jerusalem. "Against this malicious intention, leading world powers need to display determination and not weakness. They should not make any concessions to Iran."Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator who met with Amano and will also be the lead envoy at the Baghdad talks, said his country hopes for a new beginning when the talks start on Wednesday."We hope that the talks in Baghdad will be a kind of dialogue that will give shape to ... co-operation," Jalili said after arriving in Baghdad late on Monday.More inspections As part of any agreement, Amano and his agency are focused on getting Iran to let agency experts to probe various high-profile Iranian sites, including the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran, where the agency believes Iran in 2003 ran explosive tests needed to set off a nuclear charge. The suspected blasts took place inside a pressure chamber.
Iran has never said whether the chamber existed, but describes Parchin as a conventional military site. Iran, however, has blocked IAEA requests for access to sites, scientists and documents needed for its investigation for more than four years.Amano's talks included Jalili as well as Iran's foreign minister and other officials including the head of Iran's nuclear agency, Fereidoun Abbasi.Iranian lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahtpisheh saids on Monday that Tehran will likely accept more inspections of Parchin "if it feels there is good will within the [IAEA]".But Falahtpisheh warned that this new openness will likely come with expectations that the West would in return ease international sanctions on Iran.Flexibility"In opening up to more inspections, Iran aims at lowering the crisis over its nuclear case," he said. "But if the sanctions continue, Iran would stop this."A political analyst in Tehran, Hamid Reza Shokouhi, said Iran is carefully watching to see if the West shows more "flexibility and pays attention to Iranian demands" during Amano's trip."Then Iran will show flexibility, too," Shokouhi said.
But some Iranian media was critical of Amano and the IAEA, possibly reflecting internal divisions on how far to go compromise on nuclear issues.In a sign of ebbing market worries, oil prices have steadily fallen since Iran and world powers resumed talks in April in Istanbul. Fears of supply disruptions because of military conflict or Iranian shipping blockades helped drive prices above $106 a barrel earlier this year. Oil rose to slightly above $92 per barrel on Monday in New York.

NEWS,30.01.2012.

Iran will stop oil sales to 'some countries'

Iran has sent conflicting signals in a dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions, vowing to stop oil exports soon to "some" countries but postponing a parliamentary debate on a proposed halt to such sales to the European Union. The Islamic Republic declared itself optimistic about a visit by UN nuclear experts that began today but also warned the inspectors to be "professional" or see Tehran reducing cooperation with the world body on atomic matters. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection delegation will seek to advance efforts to resolve a row about nuclear work which Iran says is for making electricity but the West suspects is aimed at seeking a nuclear weapon. Tensions with the West rose this month when Washington and the European Union (EU) imposed the toughest sanctions yet in a drive to force Tehran to provide more information on its nuclear programme. The measures take direct aim at the ability of OPEC's second biggest oil exporter to sell its crude. In a remark suggesting Iran would fight sanctions with sanctions, Iran's oil minister said the Islamic state would soon stop exporting crude to "some" countries. Rostam Qasemi did not identify the countries but was speaking less than a week after the EU's 27 member states agreed to stop importing crude from Iran from July 1."Soon we will cut exporting oil to some countries," the state news agency IRNA quoted Qasemi as saying. Iranian lawmakers had been due to debate a bill today that could have cut off oil supplies to the EU in days, in a move calculated to hit ailing European economies before the EU-wide ban on took effect. But Iranian MPs postponed discussing the measure."No such draft bill has yet been drawn up and nothing has been submitted to the parliament. What exists is a notion by the deputies which is being seriously pursued to bring it to a conclusive end," Emad Hosseini, spokesman for parliament's Energy Committee, told Mehr. Iranian officials say sanctions have had no impact on the country.” Iranian oil has its own market, even if we cut our exports to Europe," oil minister Qasemi said. Another lawmaker, Mohammad Karim Abedi, said the bill would oblige the government to cut Iran's oil supplies to the European Union for five to 15 years, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. By turning the sanctions back on the EU, lawmakers hope to deny the bloc a six-month window it had planned to give those of its members most dependent on Iranian oil - including some of the most economically fragile in southern Europe - to adapt. The Mehr news agency quoted Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying during a trip to Ethiopia: "We are very optimistic about the outcome of the IAEA delegation's visit to Iran ... Their questions will be answered during this visit.” We have nothing to hide and Iran has no clandestine (nuclear) activities.” Striking a sterner tone, Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, warned the IAEA team to carry out a "logical, professional and technical" job or suffer the consequences.” This visit is a test for the IAEA. The route for further cooperation will be open if the team carries out its duties professionally," said Larijani, state media reported.” Otherwise, if the IAEA turns into a tool (for major powers to pressure Iran), then Iran will have no choice but to consider a new framework in its ties with the agency."Iran's parliament in the past has approved bills to oblige the government to review its level of cooperation with the IAEA. However, Iran's top officials have always underlined the importance of preserving ties with the watchdog body. Before departing from Vienna, IAEA Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts said he hoped the Islamic state would tackle the watchdog's concerns "regarding the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programme”. The head of the state-run National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) said late on Saturday that the export embargo would hit European refiners, such as Italy's Eni, that are owed oil from Iran as part of long-standing buy-back contracts under which they take payment for past oilfield projects in crude.

"The European companies will have to abide by the provisions of the buyback contracts," Ahmad Qalebani told the ISNA news agency. "If they act otherwise, they will be the parties to incur the relevant losses and will subject the repatriation of their capital to problems.” Italy’s Eni is owed $1.7-1.8 billion in oil for contracts it executed in Iran in 2000 and 2001 and has been assured by EU policymakers its buyback contracts will not be part of the European embargo, but the prospect of Iran acting first may put that into doubt.Eni declined to comment today. The EU accounted for 25% of Iranian crude oil sales in the third quarter of 2011. However, analysts say the global oil market will not be overly disrupted if parliament votes for the bill that would turn off the oil tap for Europe. Potentially more disruptive to the world oil market and global security is the risk of Iran's standoff with the West escalating into military conflict.Iran has repeatedly said it could close the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane if sanctions succeed in preventing it from exporting crude, a move Washington said it would not tolerate. The IAEA's visit may be an opportunity to defuse some of the tension. Director General Yukiya Amano has called on Iran to show a "constructive spirit" and Tehran has said it is willing to discuss "any issues" of interest to the UN agency, including the military-linked concerns. But Western diplomats, who have often accused Iran of using such offers of dialogue as a stalling tactic while it presses ahead with its nuclear programme, say they doubt Tehran will show the kind of concrete cooperation the IAEA wants. They say Iran may offer limited concessions and transparency to try to ease intensifying international pressure, but that this is unlikely to amount to the full cooperation required. The outcome could determine whether Iran will face further isolation or whether there are prospects for resuming wider talks between Tehran and the major powers on the nuclear row. Salehi said Iran "soon" would write a letter to the EU's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to discuss "a date and venue" for fresh nuclear talks.” Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in this letter, which may be sent in the coming days, also may mention other issues as well," Salehi said, without elaborating. The last round of talks in January 2011 between Jalili and Ashton, who represents major powers, failed over Iran's refusal to halt its sensitive nuclear work."The talks will be successful as the other party seems interested in finding a way out of this deadlock," Salehi said.

NEWS,26.01.2012.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad brushes off EU sanctions on Iran oil

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has brushed off the threat posed to the Iranian economy by tighter sanctions including a European oil embargo even as he demanded the resumption of talks on its nuclear ambitions.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's comments strengthened fears that Iran would unilaterally halt oil sales to Europe. Iran's hardline leader said sanctions would not damage an economy that has dramatically reduced its exposure to European trade in favour of Asian trade. Sanctions measures adopted by the EU on Monday raised the prospect that Iran would loose some of its main markets for oil exports. European foreign ministers embraced the embargo to increase pressure on Iran to return to negotiations over its nuclear programme. But the Iranian leader claimed the measure would only hurt the European economy. "There was a time when 90 per cent of our trade was with the Europeans. It has now dropped to 10 per cent. We didn't call for this. Cut it (trade) and let's see who will incur the loss," he said. "It is the West that needs Iran and the Iranian nation will not lose from the sanctions." The comments strengthened fears that Iran would unilaterally halt oil sales to Europe, upending a compromise struck in Brussels that allowed Greece and Spain and other exposed economies to continue taking Iranian supplies for six months. A bill to be brought before parliament on Sunday would ban the sale of oil to Europe, a move that would disrupt the continent's most vulnerable economies. "All European countries that made Iran the target of their sanctions will not be able to buy even one drop of oil from Iran and oil taps will be turned off to them so that they will not play with fire again," said Nasser Soudani, an MP. Mr Ahmadinejad painted Iran as the wronged party in the dispute, claiming it was open to talks with Europeans and permanent members of the Security Council. "They claim that Iran doesn't want negotiations but it isn't so," he said. "Every time they seek pretexts and as we approach talks they issue resolutions so that perhaps negotiations don't take place." However Germany and Israel claim Iran has not sincerely responded to its demands that the talks be held with preconditions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Iran to "accept the outstretched hand of the international community" in a phone call. Gulf officials issued fresh assurances to international markets that the flow of oil from the region can continue even if Iran carries out its threat to disrupt the Straits of Hormuz. "Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region," said Dahi Khalfan, Dubai's chief of police. "We in the Gulf have cards in our hands that allow us to marginalise the role of the strait and undermine its importance." "We tell Iran if you try to close this place, we will open the other gates and nullify the importance of the Strait of Hormuz," he added. Carl-Henric Svanberg, the chairman of BP, said there should be no need for European countries to tap strategic oil reserves after the embargo cuts off supplies from Iran at midyear. "Generally the industry, including all the oil-producing nations, has shown the capability of adjusting for moments of up and down and I think that's what you're going to see this time as well," Mr Svanberg said

NEWS,23.01.2012

Iran calls EU oil ban 'psychological warfare'

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton holds a news conference at the end of a European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels January 23, 2012 - Source: Reuters
Iran has accused Europeans of waging "psychological warfare" after the EU banned imports of Iranian oil, joining the United States in new sanctions aimed at preventing Tehran from getting nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic, which denies trying to build an atom bomb, scoffed at efforts to choke its oil exports, as Asia lines up to buy what Europe scorns. Some Iranians also renewed threats to stop Arab oil from leaving the Gulf and warned they might strike US targets worldwide if Washington used force to break any Iranian blockade of a strategically vital shipping route. Yet in three decades of confrontation between Tehran and the West, bellicose rhetoric and the undependable armoury of sanctions have become so familiar that the benchmark Brent crude oil price edged only 0.8% higher, and some of that was due to unrelated currency factors.” If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed," Mohammad Kossari, deputy head of parliament's foreign affairs and national security committee, told Fars news agency a day after US, French and British warships sailed back into the Gulf."If America seeks adventures after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will make the world unsafe for Americans in the shortest possible time," Kossari added, referring to an earlier US pledge to use its fleet to keep the passage open.The United States, which imposed its own sanctions against Iran's oil trade and central bank on December 31, welcomed the EU move, as did Israel which has warned it might attack Iran if sanctions do not deflect Tehran from a course that some analysts argue could potentially give Iran a nuclear bomb next year.US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a statement with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: "This new, concerted pressure will sharpen the choice for Iran's leaders and increase their cost of defiance of basic international obligations."

Calls for talks

Germany, France and Britain used the EU sanctions as a cue for a joint call to Tehran to renew long-suspended negotiations on its nuclear programme. Russia, like China a powerful critic of the Western approach, said talks might soon be on the cards.Iran, however, said new sanctions made that less likely. It is a view shared by some in the West who caution that such tactics risk hardening Iranian support for a nuclear programme that also seems to be subject to a covert "war" of sabotage and assassinations widely blamed on Israeli and Western agents. European Union foreign ministers who agreed an anticipated ban on imports of Iranian crude at a meeting in Brussels were so anxious not to penalise the ailing economies of Greece, Italy and others to whom Iran is a major oil supplier that the EU embargo will not take full effect until July 1. And the strategy will be reviewed in May to see if it should go ahead.Curbing Iran's oil exports is a double-edged sword, as Tehran's own response to the embargo clearly showed.Loss of revenue is painful for a clerical establishment that faces an awkward electoral test at a time of galloping inflation which is hurting ordinary people. But since Iran's Western-allied Arab neighbours are struggling to raise their own output to compensate, the curbs on Tehran's exports have driven up oil prices and raised costs for recession-hit Western industries.A member of Iran's influential Assembly of Experts, former intelligence minister Ali Fallahian, said Tehran should respond to the delayed-action EU sanctions by stopping sales to the bloc immediately, denying the Europeans time to arrange alternative supplies and damaging their economies with higher oil prices."The best way is to stop exporting oil ourselves before the end of this six months and before the implementation of the plan," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted him as saying.

"Psychological warfare"

"European Union sanctions on Iranian oil is psychological warfare," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. "Imposing economic sanctions is illogical and unfair but will not stop our nation from obtaining its rights.” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told the official IRNA news agency that the more sanctions were imposed on Tehran "the more obstacles there will be to solve the issue”. Iran’s oil ministry issued a statement saying the sanctions did not come as a shock. "The oil ministry has from long ago thought about it and has come up with measures to deal with any challenges," it said, according to IRNA.Mehmanparast said: "The European countries and those who are under American pressure, should think about their own interests. Any country that deprives itself from Iran's energy market, will soon see that it has been replaced by others.” China, Iran's biggest customer, has resisted US pressure to cut back its oil imports, as have other Asian economies to varying degrees. India's oil minister said today sanctions were forcing Iran to sell more cheaply and that India planned to take full advantage of that to buy as much as it could.The EU measures include an immediate ban on all new contracts to import, purchase or transport Iranian crude and petroleum products. However, EU countries with existing contracts can honour them up to July 1, and there will be a review of the plans before then.EU officials said they also agreed to freeze the assets of Iran's central bank and ban trade in gold and other precious metals with the bank and state bodies.EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "I want the pressure of these sanctions to result in negotiations.” I want to see Iran come back to the table and either pick up all the ideas that we left on the table ... last year ... or to come forward with its own ideas." Iran has said it is willing to hold talks with Western powers, though there have been mixed signals on whether conditions imposed by both sides make new negotiations likely.

IAEA Inspectors visit 

The Islamic Republic insists it is enriching uranium only to produce electricity and for other civilian uses. The start this month of a potentially bomb-proof - and once secret - enrichment plant has deepened scepticism abroad, however.The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed plans for a visit next week by senior inspectors to try and clear up questions raised about the purpose of Iran's nuclear activities. Tehran is banned by international treaty from developing nuclear weaponry."The Agency team is going to Iran in a constructive spirit, and we trust that Iran will work with us in that same spirit," IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said in a statement announcing the December 29-31 visit.Iran, whose 'great power' ambitions face a setback from the difficulties of its Arab ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has powerful defenders in the form of Russia, which has built Iran a reactor, and China. Both permanent UN Security Council members argue that Western sanctions are counter-productive.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, classifying the EU embargo among "aggravating factors", said Moscow believed there was a good chance that talks between the six global powers and Iran could resume soon and that Russia would try to steer both Iran and the West away from further confrontation. His ministry issued an official statement expressing "regret and alarm": "What is happening here is open pressure and diktat, an attempt to 'punish' Iran for its intractable behaviour.” This is a deeply mistaken approach, as we have told our European partners more than once. Under such pressure Iran will not agree to any concessions or any changes in its policy."But that argument cuts no ice with the US administration, for which Iran - and Israel's stated willingness to consider unilateral military action against it - is a major challenge as President Barack Obama campaigns for re-election against Republican opponents who say he has been too soft on Tehran."We and the EU are looking at ways to increase the pressure on Iran not because we want to go to war, not because we are looking for a military resolution but because we are looking for a resolution that has been a problem for a decade," Ivo Daalder, the US ambassador to NATO said today in London.” We are ready at any time to sit down with them and have a serious conversation about how to resolve this issue through negotiations ... Let's just try to continue to go down this path. The alternatives are much more difficult."