NEWS,13.02.2013

Many questions raised after nuke test

North Korea's underground nuclear test shows it is making big strides toward becoming a true nuclear power. But the test may also reveal key clues the secretive nation might have hoped to hide about how close, or how far away, it is from fielding a nuclear weapon capable of striking the US or its allies. Hoping to capitalise on a rare opportunity to gauge North Korea's nuclear capabilities, intelligence and military officials around the region are scrambling to glean data to answer three big questions: How powerful was the device Pyongyang tested, what sort of device was it, and what progress does the test indicate the nation has made.North Korea hailed on Tuesday's test as a "perfect" success, saying it used a device that was stronger and more advanced than those in its past two attempts. Add that to its successful rocket launch in December and the threat of a North Korea ready to strike at the US, which it sees as its arch-enemy, would appear to be more real than ever.But just how close is it?The main thing intelligence officials want to figure out is what kind of device was used. Was it a plutonium bomb, like the ones it tested in 2006 and 2009, or one that used highly enriched uranium?James Acton, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea's plutonium stockpile is small and it would be difficult and expensive for the North to produce more. But a test using highly enriched uranium, which is cheaper and easier to produce, would raise the threat that North Korea can expand its nuclear arsenal quickly."A highly enriched uranium test would be a significant development," he said. "Unfortunately, we don't yet have any evidence as to the device's design yield or whether it was made from plutonium or highly enriched uranium."Finding that out is a race against time.Joseph De Trani, former head of the National Counterproliferation Centre, predicted US intelligence would determine the size and composition of the nuclear device in one to three days based partly on radioactive elements released into the environment."Highly enriched uranium is something that degrades quickly, so you would have to collect within a 24-hour period," especially because the traces from an underground explosion will be minimal, he said.Neighbouring Japan may provide some of those answers.Its fighter jets were dispatched immediately after the test to collect atmospheric samples. Japan has also established land-based monitoring posts, including one on its northwest coast, to collect similar data.But experts caution such monitoring doesn't always work because test sites can be sealed to prevent tell-tale leaks. They also note that North Korea has proven it has the ability to mask its tests quite well. No radioactivity was detected after North Korea's test in 2009. The first indication of the latest test was seismic activity at the test site, which US officials estimated at roughly magnitude 5.1. That would be equivalent to a medium-sized earthquake. North Korea's two previous tests registered at magnitude 4.3 and 4.7.Working off that data, South Korean officials estimate the yield of the device a measure of how strong its explosion is in comparison to TNT - to be between 6 and 7 kilotons. The US has estimated it at "several kilotons”.Either way, it would be North Korea's biggest yield yet but far less than that of the weapon dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, which was about 20 kilotons."Because the depth of the test is not known and the geology of the test site is uncertain, translating the seismic magnitude into yield is difficult," said Acton, the Carnegie analyst. "My own back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a yield of between 4 and 15 kilotons."The size of the blast suggests it was, as North Korea claims, a success.North Korea's first test is largely believed to have fizzled, with a yield of less than 1 kiloton, and the second was between 2 and 7 kilotons."The first test almost failed. The second one showed they could basically do it. The third one showed that this is really working," said Won-Young Kim, a seismologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The final intelligence task will be confirming or debunking North Korea's claim that this time around it tested a smaller, more advanced bomb.That is important because if the North is to field a nuclear weapon on the tip of a long-range missile, it must be lightweight. Making this determination will also depend on what materials leaked from the test, which experts can use to understand what kind of a device was detonated and infer how it was designed.Experts have long been divided on whether North Korea has made much headway on clearing that hurdle, though the general consensus is they are not there yet. David Albright and Andrea Stricker, of the Institute for Science and International Security, said the latest test could be a measure of progress."Although more information is needed to make a sound assessment, this test could, as North Korea has stated, demonstrate this capability," they said in a statement. "ISIS has also assessed that North Korea still lacks the ability to deploy a warhead on an ICBM, although it shows progress at this effort."Even so, they stressed North Korea could be years away from having a credible nuclear weapon that it could launch at the US.They said North Korea will need to conduct missile flight tests with a re-entry vehicle and mock warhead, increase the explosive yield of its warheads, possibly working to make them smaller, and improve the reliability of both its warheads and missiles.

Sanctions cost Iran $40bn in 2012: IEA

Sanctions by the West on Iran succeeded in slashing Iran's oil export revenue by $40bn in 2012, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as production last month hit a three-decade low point.The IEA, the oil monitoring and policy arm of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, said Iranian oil output fell to 2.65 million barrels per day (mbd) in January, down from the 3.7 mbd in late 2011 before the sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic by the US and European Union took effect.

Obama to pare tax breaks for big firms

President Barack Obama will renew his bid to curb tax breaks prized by corporations and the wealthiest Americans in a speech on Tuesday laying out his legislative agenda, but the proposals are sure to face familiar roadblocks from congressional Republicans. The president will propose to "reform our business tax code, (lower) the corporate tax rate with an even lower rate for manufacturers," and set a minimum tax on offshore earnings, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House ahead of the annual State of the Union address to Congress.Obama also will back tax reforms that close "loopholes for the wealthy," according to the summary.If the plan sounds familiar, it should, because the ideas largely mirror those Obama pitched in his address a year ago. Since then, he won re-election campaigning on tax fairness and Republicans lost congressional seats, but even the president's backers say they face a tough road."Unless Republicans have a real 'come to Jesus moment,' it is difficult to imagine them supporting many or any of these provisions," said Jim Manley, a former top adviser to Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.The speech comes as another fiscal crisis brews in a stand-off between the White House and congressional Republicans, this time over automatic spending cuts set to kick in on March 1. Obama and fellow Democrats back a mix of revenue and tailored spending cuts to avoid what is known as the "sequester," while Republicans oppose any tax increases. Democrats and Republicans both say they want a full-scale revamp of the US tax code - but they are far apart on how to get there. Republican Representative Dave Camp, who chairs the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, is working on a plan to revamp the tax code. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat, is also working on a proposal.But a full-scale tax code overhaul is a massive endeavor, and it has been somewhat crowded out by issues like immigration and gun control in recent weeks and months."It is not an issue that has much momentum behind it, but having people like the president and Dave Camp talking about it will help that," said Erik Smith, a former adviser to Obama who now advises companies at Blue Engine Media.Obama has also called for review of the corporate tax code - including lowering the top corporate tax rate to 28% from 35%, to be paid for by closing business tax breaks. Republicans back a lower corporate rate, but have resisted the idea of tackling it in isolation because many businesses file taxes through the individual side of the tax code and would be left out.

Obama proposes raising minimum wage

US President Barack Obama proposed on Tuesday to hike the minimum wage by more than 20%, invest $50bn on crumbling roads and bridges and spend $15bn on a construction jobs program in a bid to boost economic growth.In his annual State of the Union address, Obama urged Congress to support his plan, which would include tax and education reforms that the administration believes would help attract manufacturers back to the United States.The complete cost of the program would be offset by spending cuts and tax reforms that will be laid out in Obama's budget proposal in the weeks ahead, senior administration officials told reporters.The minimum wage increase would lift incomes for 15 million Americans and be done in stages, the officials said, noting that an increasing number of corporate chief executives support such a move.The officials said economic studies show increasing the minimum wage is effective at reducing poverty while reducing turnover costs for businesses.Obama is also proposing to raise the tipped minimum wage - the wage for jobs whose compensation includes gratuities - and have it indexed for inflation, a move, the officials noted, that was supported by Obama's 2012 Republican presidential opponent, Mitt Romney.As expected, Obama is announcing in the speech the start of free trade talks between the United States and the 27-nation European Union.As part of his push to give Americans skills to be competitive in a global economy, Obama proposed a new program to create universal access to pre-school for all 4-year-olds.

Scandal set to spur tougher food tests

European countries demanded more DNA testing of meat products and tougher labelling rules over a scandal involving horsemeat sold as beef that has shocked the public and raised concerns over the safety of the continent's food supply chains. Officials have said there is no risk to public health from the tainted foods. But the suspected fraud has caused particular outrage in Britain, where many view the idea of eating horsemeat with distaste, and exposed flawed food controls. Ministers from the worst-affected EU nations met in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss their response to the scandal, which erupted after tests in Ireland showed products labelled as beef contained up to 100% horsemeat."This is impacting on the integrity of the food chain, which is a really significant issue for a lot of countries. Now that we know this is a European problem, we need a European solution," Irish Farm Minister Simon Coveney told reporters as he arrived for the meeting.Britain's farm minister said the type of tests that revealed the problem should be carried out routinely in future."I would like to see DNA testing of processed meat products during process and as finished products established as soon as possible right across every member state," Owen Paterson said.Both ministers urged EU authorities to propose changes to labelling rules that would force producers to give the country of origin on processed meat products. Currently the requirement only applies to fresh beef, and will be extended to fresh lamb, pork and poultry from December 2014.The European Commission, which oversees EU labelling rules, said it was studying the option. But officials have warned privately that the complexity of supply chains would make this almost impossible to implement.EU and national authorities are still trying to uncover the source of the suspected fraud. "All those countries through which this meat product has passed of course are under suspicion," EU Health Commissioner Tonio Borg told a news briefing on Wednesday. "By the countries, I mean the companies in those countries which dealt with this meat product."He added that it would be unfair at this stage to point the finger at any organisation in particular.On 15 January routine tests by Ireland's Food Safety Authority found horsemeat in frozen beef burgers produced by firms in Ireland and Britain and sold in supermarket chains including Tesco, Britain's biggest retailer.Concerns grew last week when the British unit of frozen foods group Findus began recalling packets of beef lasagne on advice from its French supplier Comigel, after tests showed up to 100% of the meat in them was horse.The affair has since implicated operators and middlemen in a host of EU countries, from abattoirs in Romania and factories in Luxembourg to traders in Cyprus and food companies in France. Germany said it was investigating a consignment of beef lasagne sent from Luxembourg to an unnamed retailer in North Rhine-Westphalia on suspicion it might contain horsemeat.The first evidence that the labelling scandal could go beyond horsemeat also emerged, as upmarket British grocer Waitrose said its testing found that some of its frozen British beef meatballs might contain pork. The firm, part of the John Lewis Partnership, has withdrawn the product from sale.

Iran installs enrichment centrifuges

Iran said on Wednesday that it has begun installing a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment facility, a move that will allow it to vastly increase its pace of uranium enrichment in defiance of UN calls to halt such activities. Vice President Fereidoun Abbasi told the official IRNA news agency that the machines will only produce low-level enriched uranium, which is used to make nuclear fuel, but high-level enrichment makes it suitable for use in the core of a nuclear weapon.Abbasi said Iranian nuclear scientists began installing the advanced centrifuges at Natanz about a month ago."We've produced enough of these machines and are installing and starting them up gradually," Abbasi said.The announcement coincided with a new round of talks on Wednesday with senior International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors over allegations that Tehran might have carried out tests on triggers for atomic weapons. It also could affect negotiations planned later this month between Iran and six world powers.Iran has more than 10 000 centrifuges that are enriching uranium at Natanz, 225km southeast of Tehran. But the machines are of the old IR-1 type. Iran told the IAEA last month that it intended to install newer IR-2 centrifuges, machines that can produce more enriched uranium at a shorter period of time."The centrifuges installed at Natanz are first-generation machines based on old technology," the semi-official ISNA news agency quoted Abbasi as saying. "We were able to produce composite materials... We built centrifuge rotors from those materials which make the machines more durable. The new generation of centrifuges is more efficient."Abbasi said Iran would use the new machines to produce 5% level enriched uranium. The visit by the UN team, led by Herman Nackaerts, comes a day after Tehran raised prospects that the IAEA could be allowed to inspect Parchin, a military site where the agency suspects nuclear-related experiments were conducted.But Abbasi said no such visit was on the negotiating table."Parchin is not a nuclear site. We've said this repeatedly. There is no word about visiting Parchin or any other site," he said.Iran says the agency's suspicions are based on forged intelligence provided by the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, Britain's MI-6 and other intelligence agencies."Removing ambiguities requires evidence. If the agency has any documents related to ambiguities about Parchin, it is necessary that they give it to us," IRNA quoted Abbasi as saying.Iranian officials say they have bitter memories of permitting IAEA inspections at Parchin in the past, and replying to a long list of queries over its nuclear programme. Tehran says any new agency investigation must be governed by an agreement that lays out the scope of such a probe.Iran says it cannot allow its security to be compromised by allowing the IAEA access to non-nuclear facilities on the basis of suspicions raised by foreign intelligence agencies that Tehran considers enemies. Abbasi also criticised the IAEA for leaking information on Iran's nuclear programme.