NEWS,13.02.2013

Many questions raised after nuke test

North Korea's underground nuclear test shows it is making big strides toward becoming a true nuclear power. But the test may also reveal key clues the secretive nation might have hoped to hide about how close, or how far away, it is from fielding a nuclear weapon capable of striking the US or its allies. Hoping to capitalise on a rare opportunity to gauge North Korea's nuclear capabilities, intelligence and military officials around the region are scrambling to glean data to answer three big questions: How powerful was the device Pyongyang tested, what sort of device was it, and what progress does the test indicate the nation has made.North Korea hailed on Tuesday's test as a "perfect" success, saying it used a device that was stronger and more advanced than those in its past two attempts. Add that to its successful rocket launch in December and the threat of a North Korea ready to strike at the US, which it sees as its arch-enemy, would appear to be more real than ever.But just how close is it?The main thing intelligence officials want to figure out is what kind of device was used. Was it a plutonium bomb, like the ones it tested in 2006 and 2009, or one that used highly enriched uranium?James Acton, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea's plutonium stockpile is small and it would be difficult and expensive for the North to produce more. But a test using highly enriched uranium, which is cheaper and easier to produce, would raise the threat that North Korea can expand its nuclear arsenal quickly."A highly enriched uranium test would be a significant development," he said. "Unfortunately, we don't yet have any evidence as to the device's design yield or whether it was made from plutonium or highly enriched uranium."Finding that out is a race against time.Joseph De Trani, former head of the National Counterproliferation Centre, predicted US intelligence would determine the size and composition of the nuclear device in one to three days based partly on radioactive elements released into the environment."Highly enriched uranium is something that degrades quickly, so you would have to collect within a 24-hour period," especially because the traces from an underground explosion will be minimal, he said.Neighbouring Japan may provide some of those answers.Its fighter jets were dispatched immediately after the test to collect atmospheric samples. Japan has also established land-based monitoring posts, including one on its northwest coast, to collect similar data.But experts caution such monitoring doesn't always work because test sites can be sealed to prevent tell-tale leaks. They also note that North Korea has proven it has the ability to mask its tests quite well. No radioactivity was detected after North Korea's test in 2009. The first indication of the latest test was seismic activity at the test site, which US officials estimated at roughly magnitude 5.1. That would be equivalent to a medium-sized earthquake. North Korea's two previous tests registered at magnitude 4.3 and 4.7.Working off that data, South Korean officials estimate the yield of the device a measure of how strong its explosion is in comparison to TNT - to be between 6 and 7 kilotons. The US has estimated it at "several kilotons”.Either way, it would be North Korea's biggest yield yet but far less than that of the weapon dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, which was about 20 kilotons."Because the depth of the test is not known and the geology of the test site is uncertain, translating the seismic magnitude into yield is difficult," said Acton, the Carnegie analyst. "My own back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a yield of between 4 and 15 kilotons."The size of the blast suggests it was, as North Korea claims, a success.North Korea's first test is largely believed to have fizzled, with a yield of less than 1 kiloton, and the second was between 2 and 7 kilotons."The first test almost failed. The second one showed they could basically do it. The third one showed that this is really working," said Won-Young Kim, a seismologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The final intelligence task will be confirming or debunking North Korea's claim that this time around it tested a smaller, more advanced bomb.That is important because if the North is to field a nuclear weapon on the tip of a long-range missile, it must be lightweight. Making this determination will also depend on what materials leaked from the test, which experts can use to understand what kind of a device was detonated and infer how it was designed.Experts have long been divided on whether North Korea has made much headway on clearing that hurdle, though the general consensus is they are not there yet. David Albright and Andrea Stricker, of the Institute for Science and International Security, said the latest test could be a measure of progress."Although more information is needed to make a sound assessment, this test could, as North Korea has stated, demonstrate this capability," they said in a statement. "ISIS has also assessed that North Korea still lacks the ability to deploy a warhead on an ICBM, although it shows progress at this effort."Even so, they stressed North Korea could be years away from having a credible nuclear weapon that it could launch at the US.They said North Korea will need to conduct missile flight tests with a re-entry vehicle and mock warhead, increase the explosive yield of its warheads, possibly working to make them smaller, and improve the reliability of both its warheads and missiles.

Sanctions cost Iran $40bn in 2012: IEA

Sanctions by the West on Iran succeeded in slashing Iran's oil export revenue by $40bn in 2012, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, as production last month hit a three-decade low point.The IEA, the oil monitoring and policy arm of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, said Iranian oil output fell to 2.65 million barrels per day (mbd) in January, down from the 3.7 mbd in late 2011 before the sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic by the US and European Union took effect.

Obama to pare tax breaks for big firms

President Barack Obama will renew his bid to curb tax breaks prized by corporations and the wealthiest Americans in a speech on Tuesday laying out his legislative agenda, but the proposals are sure to face familiar roadblocks from congressional Republicans. The president will propose to "reform our business tax code, (lower) the corporate tax rate with an even lower rate for manufacturers," and set a minimum tax on offshore earnings, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House ahead of the annual State of the Union address to Congress.Obama also will back tax reforms that close "loopholes for the wealthy," according to the summary.If the plan sounds familiar, it should, because the ideas largely mirror those Obama pitched in his address a year ago. Since then, he won re-election campaigning on tax fairness and Republicans lost congressional seats, but even the president's backers say they face a tough road."Unless Republicans have a real 'come to Jesus moment,' it is difficult to imagine them supporting many or any of these provisions," said Jim Manley, a former top adviser to Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.The speech comes as another fiscal crisis brews in a stand-off between the White House and congressional Republicans, this time over automatic spending cuts set to kick in on March 1. Obama and fellow Democrats back a mix of revenue and tailored spending cuts to avoid what is known as the "sequester," while Republicans oppose any tax increases. Democrats and Republicans both say they want a full-scale revamp of the US tax code - but they are far apart on how to get there. Republican Representative Dave Camp, who chairs the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, is working on a plan to revamp the tax code. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat, is also working on a proposal.But a full-scale tax code overhaul is a massive endeavor, and it has been somewhat crowded out by issues like immigration and gun control in recent weeks and months."It is not an issue that has much momentum behind it, but having people like the president and Dave Camp talking about it will help that," said Erik Smith, a former adviser to Obama who now advises companies at Blue Engine Media.Obama has also called for review of the corporate tax code - including lowering the top corporate tax rate to 28% from 35%, to be paid for by closing business tax breaks. Republicans back a lower corporate rate, but have resisted the idea of tackling it in isolation because many businesses file taxes through the individual side of the tax code and would be left out.

Obama proposes raising minimum wage

US President Barack Obama proposed on Tuesday to hike the minimum wage by more than 20%, invest $50bn on crumbling roads and bridges and spend $15bn on a construction jobs program in a bid to boost economic growth.In his annual State of the Union address, Obama urged Congress to support his plan, which would include tax and education reforms that the administration believes would help attract manufacturers back to the United States.The complete cost of the program would be offset by spending cuts and tax reforms that will be laid out in Obama's budget proposal in the weeks ahead, senior administration officials told reporters.The minimum wage increase would lift incomes for 15 million Americans and be done in stages, the officials said, noting that an increasing number of corporate chief executives support such a move.The officials said economic studies show increasing the minimum wage is effective at reducing poverty while reducing turnover costs for businesses.Obama is also proposing to raise the tipped minimum wage - the wage for jobs whose compensation includes gratuities - and have it indexed for inflation, a move, the officials noted, that was supported by Obama's 2012 Republican presidential opponent, Mitt Romney.As expected, Obama is announcing in the speech the start of free trade talks between the United States and the 27-nation European Union.As part of his push to give Americans skills to be competitive in a global economy, Obama proposed a new program to create universal access to pre-school for all 4-year-olds.

Scandal set to spur tougher food tests

European countries demanded more DNA testing of meat products and tougher labelling rules over a scandal involving horsemeat sold as beef that has shocked the public and raised concerns over the safety of the continent's food supply chains. Officials have said there is no risk to public health from the tainted foods. But the suspected fraud has caused particular outrage in Britain, where many view the idea of eating horsemeat with distaste, and exposed flawed food controls. Ministers from the worst-affected EU nations met in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss their response to the scandal, which erupted after tests in Ireland showed products labelled as beef contained up to 100% horsemeat."This is impacting on the integrity of the food chain, which is a really significant issue for a lot of countries. Now that we know this is a European problem, we need a European solution," Irish Farm Minister Simon Coveney told reporters as he arrived for the meeting.Britain's farm minister said the type of tests that revealed the problem should be carried out routinely in future."I would like to see DNA testing of processed meat products during process and as finished products established as soon as possible right across every member state," Owen Paterson said.Both ministers urged EU authorities to propose changes to labelling rules that would force producers to give the country of origin on processed meat products. Currently the requirement only applies to fresh beef, and will be extended to fresh lamb, pork and poultry from December 2014.The European Commission, which oversees EU labelling rules, said it was studying the option. But officials have warned privately that the complexity of supply chains would make this almost impossible to implement.EU and national authorities are still trying to uncover the source of the suspected fraud. "All those countries through which this meat product has passed of course are under suspicion," EU Health Commissioner Tonio Borg told a news briefing on Wednesday. "By the countries, I mean the companies in those countries which dealt with this meat product."He added that it would be unfair at this stage to point the finger at any organisation in particular.On 15 January routine tests by Ireland's Food Safety Authority found horsemeat in frozen beef burgers produced by firms in Ireland and Britain and sold in supermarket chains including Tesco, Britain's biggest retailer.Concerns grew last week when the British unit of frozen foods group Findus began recalling packets of beef lasagne on advice from its French supplier Comigel, after tests showed up to 100% of the meat in them was horse.The affair has since implicated operators and middlemen in a host of EU countries, from abattoirs in Romania and factories in Luxembourg to traders in Cyprus and food companies in France. Germany said it was investigating a consignment of beef lasagne sent from Luxembourg to an unnamed retailer in North Rhine-Westphalia on suspicion it might contain horsemeat.The first evidence that the labelling scandal could go beyond horsemeat also emerged, as upmarket British grocer Waitrose said its testing found that some of its frozen British beef meatballs might contain pork. The firm, part of the John Lewis Partnership, has withdrawn the product from sale.

Iran installs enrichment centrifuges

Iran said on Wednesday that it has begun installing a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment facility, a move that will allow it to vastly increase its pace of uranium enrichment in defiance of UN calls to halt such activities. Vice President Fereidoun Abbasi told the official IRNA news agency that the machines will only produce low-level enriched uranium, which is used to make nuclear fuel, but high-level enrichment makes it suitable for use in the core of a nuclear weapon.Abbasi said Iranian nuclear scientists began installing the advanced centrifuges at Natanz about a month ago."We've produced enough of these machines and are installing and starting them up gradually," Abbasi said.The announcement coincided with a new round of talks on Wednesday with senior International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors over allegations that Tehran might have carried out tests on triggers for atomic weapons. It also could affect negotiations planned later this month between Iran and six world powers.Iran has more than 10 000 centrifuges that are enriching uranium at Natanz, 225km southeast of Tehran. But the machines are of the old IR-1 type. Iran told the IAEA last month that it intended to install newer IR-2 centrifuges, machines that can produce more enriched uranium at a shorter period of time."The centrifuges installed at Natanz are first-generation machines based on old technology," the semi-official ISNA news agency quoted Abbasi as saying. "We were able to produce composite materials... We built centrifuge rotors from those materials which make the machines more durable. The new generation of centrifuges is more efficient."Abbasi said Iran would use the new machines to produce 5% level enriched uranium. The visit by the UN team, led by Herman Nackaerts, comes a day after Tehran raised prospects that the IAEA could be allowed to inspect Parchin, a military site where the agency suspects nuclear-related experiments were conducted.But Abbasi said no such visit was on the negotiating table."Parchin is not a nuclear site. We've said this repeatedly. There is no word about visiting Parchin or any other site," he said.Iran says the agency's suspicions are based on forged intelligence provided by the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, Britain's MI-6 and other intelligence agencies."Removing ambiguities requires evidence. If the agency has any documents related to ambiguities about Parchin, it is necessary that they give it to us," IRNA quoted Abbasi as saying.Iranian officials say they have bitter memories of permitting IAEA inspections at Parchin in the past, and replying to a long list of queries over its nuclear programme. Tehran says any new agency investigation must be governed by an agreement that lays out the scope of such a probe.Iran says it cannot allow its security to be compromised by allowing the IAEA access to non-nuclear facilities on the basis of suspicions raised by foreign intelligence agencies that Tehran considers enemies. Abbasi also criticised the IAEA for leaking information on Iran's nuclear programme.

NEWS, 26.05.2012.

I made Russia a freer country: Medvedev

 

President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that Russia had become a freer nation during his four-year term, citing the mass protests of recent months as evidence of change."Spring has come to us, both literally and figuratively. I congratulate you," Medvedev said in a live television interview, his last before he hands the presidency back to Vladimir Putin."Freedom," Medvedev sighed and smiled, "is such a unique feeling that everyone interprets differently."Freedom is a sense of self. And in this sense we've done a lot," he told a group of liberal journalists,who are usually sidelined for their sceptical stance towards the government.Medvedev's political mentor Putin, who became his prime minister after being barred by the constitution from serving more than two successive presidential terms, announced plans in September to return to the Kremlin in a job swap with his close ally.That announcement coupled with fraud-tainted parliamentary polls in December led to the largest protests since the Soviet era, when tens of thousands rallied in Moscow protesting Putin's comeback.Protests lose stingBoth Medvedev and Putin have in the past sought to stress that the protests were the hallmark of a democratic society, and introduced cosmetic political reforms that many analysts called a concession to protesters."Let's ask people who took to various squares whether they are free or not," Medvedev said."It is not important who they support: 'the white', 'the red' or 'the blue'. I am absolutely confident that the overwhelming majority of them will say: 'Yes, I am free because I stand here, I have my own position, I do not like a lot, or on the contrary, I like practically everything, don't you dare touch it. I am free'.""The current accelerated movement towards democracy will not lead to chaos," Medvedev added. "Society has matured."The nascent protest movement has lost much of its sting since Putin's crushing 4 March presidential victory, although it still hopes to muster another major demonstration in Moscow the day before Putin's 7 May inauguration.Medvedev defended his decision to cede the country's top job which has earned him mockery from the liberal opposition and many ordinary Russians calling him a mere seat-warmer incapable of promoting true reform.Hunger strike"We've achieved the political results we were hoping for," said Medvedev, who expects to be appointed prime minister when Putin moves back to the Kremlin."The decisions that were announced in September have been confirmed by political practice and it, as we know, is a criterion of truth.""We've thought it all up not to warm ourselves up but to receive a concrete political result. And we've received it, we've received a mandate to rule," he said.But the outgoing president also spoke disparagingly of the recent 40-day hunger strike by opposition politician Oleg Shein in the southern city of Astrakhan in protest at alleged violations in mayoral elections that he contested."I do not blame anyone. But 'Hunger Games' - I will remind you, is a rather mediocre Hollywood blockbuster, I don't know whether you've watched it or not, I have - whoever does it very often pursues a very obvious political goal."He defended his presidential decisions including the sacking of governors and the reform of the bloated police force, reiterating that Russia's most prominent prisoner Mikhail Khodorkovsky would not be allowed to walk free unless he asked for pardon."Without a request there cannot be a review. This is my firm position."Once Russia's richest man, Khodorkovsky is set to stay in jail until 2016 after being convicted in two fraud trials in what his supporters say is a case of personal vendetta on the part of Putin.

 

Iran: Enriched uranium traces a 'technical issue'

 

A top Iranian nuclear negotiator said that traces of enriched uranium discovered at an underground bunker came from a "routine technical issue," the country's official IRNA news agency reported Saturday.Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Tehran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, was responding to a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog that said it had found radioactive traces at an Iranian nuclear site. The uranium found had been enriched to a level that is slightly closer to the threshold needed for nuclear weapons than Iran's previous highest-known enrichment grade.The IAEA said in the confidential report obtained Friday by The Associated Press that it was asking Tehran for a full explanation about the traces. But the report was careful to avoid any suggestion that Iran was intentionally increasing the level of its uranium enrichment.Tehran said the find was a technical glitch, according to the report. Analysts and diplomats said Iran's version sounded plausible.The West suspects Iran is pursuing a weapons program. Tehran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is aimed at peaceful purposes like power generation and cancer treatment.Soltanieh said the report on Iran's nuclear activities was "historic evidence" that proved the peaceful nature of Iranian nuclear activities, while the uranium discovery was blown out of proportion for political reasons."This issue shows that some intend to damage the existing constructive cooperation between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency," he was quoted as saying.The higher the enrichment, the easier it becomes to re-enrich uranium to the 90 percent needed for weapons grade. As a result, the finding of traces at 27 percent at the Fordo enrichment plant in central Iran sparked international interest.Iran denies any plans to develop nuclear weapons, but has for years declined offers of reactor fuel from abroad, including more recent inducements of 20-percent material if it stops Aproducing at that level. The Islamic Republic says it wants to continue producing 20 percent uranium to fuel its research reactor and for medical purposes.But its refusal to accept foreign offers has increased fears Tehran may want to turn its enrichment activities toward producing such arms. The concerns have been fed by IAEA suspicions that Iran has experimented on components of an atomic arms program — suspicions Tehran also denies.The report cited a May 9 letter from Iranian officials suggesting any enrichment at 27 percent was inadvertent. The letter said the particles were produced "above the target value" and could have been for "technical reasons beyond the operator's control."But the IAEA report did detail some progress in talks between the U.N. nuclear agency and Iran that the agency hopes will relaunch a long-stalled probe into the suspicions that Tehran has worked on nuclear-weapons related experiments.Amano will handover the report on Iran's nuclear activities to the board of directors of the agency later in June.IRNA also reported that Iran's nuclear chief, Fereidoun Abbasi, said Saturday that Tehran will not open the Parchin site until the agency convinces the country it is necessary."If a visit to Parchin is to happen, they should convince us in advance. So far, no reason and evidence has been handed to us," Abbas was quoted as saying.After a short visit to Tehran last week, Amano said Iran and the agency will sign an agreement on inspection to the site, soon.

NEWS,17.05.2012.

Plans to strike Iran 'ready', says US Israel envoy

 

US plans for a possible military strike on Iran are ready and the option is "fully available", the US ambassador to Israel said, days before Tehran resumes talks with world powers which suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear arms.Like Israel, the United States has said it considers military force a last resort to prevent Iran using its uranium enrichment to make a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear programme is for purely civilian purposes."It would be preferable to resolve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure than to use military force," Ambassador Dan Shapiro said in remarks about Iran aired by Israel's Army Radio today."But that doesn't mean that option is not fully available - not just available, but it's ready. The necessary planning has been done to ensure that it's ready," said Shapiro, who the radio station said had spoken on Tuesday.The United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany have been using sanctions and negotiations to try to persuade Iran to curb its uranium enrichment, which can produce fuel for reactors, medical isotopes, and, at higher levels of purification, fissile material for warheads.New talks opened in Istanbul last month and resume on May 23 in Baghdad.Israel, which is widely assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, feels threatened by the prospect of its arch-foe Iran going nuclear and has hinted it could launch preemptive war.But many analysts believe the United States alone has the military clout to do lasting damage to Iran's nuclear programme.In January, Shapiro told an Israeli newspaper the United States was "guaranteeing that the military option is ready and available to the president at the moment he decides to use it".US lawmakers are considering additional legislation that would increase pressure on Iran, with further measures to punish foreign companies for dealing with Iran in any capacity.

Chinese boats seized by North Koreans in rare spat

 

North Korean officials have demanded payment before they will release Chinese fishing boats with a total of 29 men on board, Chinese media reported today, in a rare public spat between the neighbours and longtime allies.The Chinese owners of the boats said they were seized by a North Korean gunboat on May 8 in the Yellow Sea, between China and North Korea, the Beijing News reported.The owners said the vessels were fishing in Chinese waters. North Korea has not made any public comment on the case.The North Koreans holding the boats and sailors demanded payment of 1.2 million yuan ($NZ247,819) for releasing them, then cut their price to 900,000 yuan and set a deadline of today, Zhang Dechang, owner of one of the captured boats told the newspaper, which called the demand a "ransom".The 29 sailors who were on board the boats are now in North Korea, said one captured seaman in a call with an owner, the newspaper added.The Chinese government would not publicly confirm any details about the reported incident."China is maintaining close contact with North Korea through the relevant channels, and we hope this problem will be appropriately solved as soon as possible," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily briefing."We have also stated to North Korea that it should ensure the legitimate rights of Chinese ship personnel."China is the key economic and diplomatic backer of North Korea, seeing it as a buffer against US influence in the region. Beijing is a major supplier of food aid and oil to the North, which remains isolated by sanctions over its nuclear ambitions and rocket launches.China has been quietly pressing North Korea to scrap plans for a third nuclear test, sources with knowledge of closed-door talks between the countries have told Reuters.Pyongyang has sought to strengthen ties with Beijing through frequent visits and praise of their friendship, but the North can also be resentful about what it sees as infringements of its territory, and Chinese dominance of relations.It was unclear whether the seizure of the boats was authorised by the North Korean government, or was the initiative of local officials.The Chinese Foreign Ministry told the Beijing News the incident was a "fisheries case", and will be resolved as soon as possible.

NEWS,05.02.2012.

Iran launches new exercises

Iran has begun ground military exercises and defiantly warned that it could cut off oil exports to "hostile" European nations as tensions rise over suggestions that military strikes are an increasing possibility if sanctions fail to rein in the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Tehran has stepped up its rhetoric as international pressure mounts over allegations that it is seeking to develop atomic weapons, a charge it denies. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued stern warnings against any possible US or Israeli attacks against Tehran's nuclear facilities. Western forces also have boosted their naval presence in the Gulf led by the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. The new military manoeuvres came weeks after Iran rolled out its troops and arsenals in an unprecedented display of military readiness, with 10 days of naval manoeuvres that included the first threats to block Gulf oil tankers in early January. Ground forces also were sent on winter war games - against what a Tehran military spokesman called a "hypothetical enemy" - with US forces just over the border in Afghanistan. Plans for new Iranian naval games in the Persian Gulf off the country's southern coast have been in the works for weeks. Iranian state media reported the ground manoeuvres of the elite Revolutionary Guard started Saturday near Jiroft, 745 miles (1200 kms) south of the capital Tehran. No more details were available, but it appeared that they were small-scale exercises and not linked to the planned major naval manoeuvres near the Strait of Hormuz, the route for one-fifth of the world's crude oil. Iranian officials and lawmakers repeatedly have threatened to close the strait, which funnels down to a waterway no wider than 30 miles (50 kms) at the mouth of the Gulf, in retaliation for sanctions that affect Iran's oil exports. But they have as yet made no attempts to disrupt shipping through the waterway, and the US and other Western powers have warned they would respond swiftly to any attempts at a blockade. Washington and its allies fear Iran could use its uranium enrichment labs - which make nuclear fuel - to eventually produce weapons-grade material. Tehran insists it only seeks reactors for energy and medical research. So far, the West is relying primarily on the threat of economic sanctions to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. Tehran has claimed that the most recent move - EU sanctions approved on January 23, which include an oil embargo and the freezing of central bank assets - will be ineffective, while members of Iran's parliament say they have drafted a bill which would cut off the flow to Europe early, before it can find alternative suppliers. Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi also said on Saturday (local time) the Islamic Republic would "definitely" cut off oil to "hostile" European countries, without specifying which ones they were. However, he said Iran is moving toward reducing reliance on oil revenues, a hint that Tehran is preparing for the worst. Oil sales account for about 80 per cent of Iran's foreign revenues. Qassemi, the oil minister, reiterated Iran's argument that the EU oil embargo will not cripple Iran's economy, claiming that the country already has identified new customers to replace the loss in European sales that accounted for about 18 per cent of Iran's exports. "We've made the necessary planning to deal with that. We have friends in the world and will assist each other," he said. "We won't back down a single step under political pressures and won't give up our right position even if we can't sell a single barrel of oil." In contrast, he said, the ban would rebound on oil consumers. "If Iran's oil is totally deleted from the market, then a terrible tension will be created. The costs will be intolerable. The option of imposing a total ban on Iran's crude exports is unenforceable," he said. Qassemi also reinforced Iran's warning to Saudi Arabia and other fellow OPEC members against boosting production to offset any potential drop in Tehran's crude exports, saying the cartel should not be used as a political weapon against a member state.

Israel, for its part, has so far publicly backed the efforts by the US and European Union for tougher sanctions that target Iran's oil exports. But Israeli leaders have urged even harsher measures and warn that military action remains a clear option despite Western appeals to allow time for the economic pressures and isolation to bear down on Iran. Khamenei, in a nationally broadcast speech on Friday, staked out a hard line after suggestions by Israel that military strikes are an increasing possibility if sanctions fail to rein in Iran's nuclear program. He pledged to aid any nation or group that challenges Israel and said any military strikes would damage US interests in the Middle East "10 times" more than they would hurt Iran. The comments also may signal that Tehran's proxy forces - led by Lebanon's Islamic militant group Hezbollah - could be given the green light to revive attacks on Israel as the showdown between the rivals intensifies.

NEWS,08.01.2012

The battle for the Pacific

 America's shift in defence strategy to focus on the Far East has momentous significance for Europe and Asia. 

 

The Pentagon briefing room rarely hosts all of America’s service chiefs, let alone the president. Its use by Barack Obama to announce the conclusions of his defence review was designed to add a sense of drama – and the occasion certainly lived up to its billing. Future historians will probably conclude that this was the week when America’s entire foreign and defence strategy pivoted decisively away from Europe and towards the Pacific. More ominously, it might also mark the onset of a new, if concealed, arms race between the US and its aspiring rival, China. First things first: America’s military dominance will remain unchallenged for the foreseeable future. Mr Obama might have announced spending cuts of almost $500 billion over the next decade, but this amounts to a light trim for a defence machine with an annual budget of $650 billion, amounting to 45 per cent of all military expenditure in the world. America is not axing capabilities in the foolish fashion of British governments; rather, its power is being focused on the great strategic challenges of the next century. These can be simply summarised: the struggle for mastery in Asia, home of the world’s most populous countries and fastest-growing economies, and responding to sudden crises. To this end, the US will reduce its presence in Europe, cut 90,000 soldiers and bulk up in the Pacific, with new bases in Australia and elsewhere. As for other flashpoints, few will be surprised that the US policy stresses the goals of containing Iran and guaranteeing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On a purely military level, two points stand out. The US might be cutting its army, but it has ruled out reducing its fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, each of which packs more punch than the entire air forces of most countries. While China’s defence budget has recorded double-digit increases for the past decade, it has still launched only one carrier – an old Russian model of doubtful combat value. Second, Mr Obama stressed his determination to invest in “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”. Put simply, the US will seek to extend its lead in the most advanced combat systems: where scores of troops – and hundreds of support staff – might once have been required to dispatch a senior al-Qaeda operative, now one unmanned drone can do the job. America’s new course could well be shifted by a strategic shock akin to the September 11 attacks. Nevertheless, this plan will have momentous consequences for Europe and Asia alike. For decades, the US has underwritten the security of the Atlantic as well as the Pacific, effectively allowing Europe a free ride and permitting a string of Nato members the luxury of running down their defence budgets. This era is rapidly coming to a close. Yet with a few honourable exceptions, such as Britain and France, European powers have failed to fund their armed forces adequately, or deploy them when needed. Germany, in particular, must overcome the burden of its history and face up to the responsibilities that go with being the Continent’s leading economic power.
Mr Obama’s address studiously refrained from mentioning China, the country that probably has most at stake. Beijing’s leaders will now have to make far-reaching choices of their own. As events in Burma have shown, China’s “peaceful rise” has alarmed many of its neighbours: for most countries in the region, American power and values remain far more appealing. Moreover, China has grown rich largely thanks to trade, not least with the US. Faced with the net of containment that America is quietly laying across the Pacific, China will search for the Achilles’ heel of the US Navy, perfecting a new generation of missiles capable of destroying aircraft carriers from hundreds of miles away, working out how to cripple the internet, and how to blind the US satellite network, on which all its military assets now depend. 

Iran starts uranium enrichment facility is going operational in a move likely to increase tension between the Islamic state and the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Kayhan daily, which is close to Iran's ruling clerics, said Tehran has begun injecting uranium gas into sophisticated centrifuges at the Fordow facility near the holy city of Qom. "Kayhan received reports yesterday that shows Iran has begun uranium enrichment at the Fordo facility amid heightened foreign enemy threats," the paper said in a front-page report. Kayhan's manager is a representative of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's nuclear chief Fereidoun Abbasi said full scale work would start "soon" at Fordow. It was impossible to immediately reconcile the two reports. "The Fordow nuclear enrichment plant will be operational in the near future - 20 per cent, 3.5 per cent and four per cent enriched uranium can be produced at this site," said Mr Abbasi.Iran has said for months that it is preparing to conduct uranium enrichment at Fordow, a protected site deep inside a mountain near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom in central Iran. The United States and its allies say Iran is trying to build bombs, but Tehran insists its nuclear programme is aimed at generating power.The inauguration of the site could block fresh nuclear talks with major powers aimed at resolving Iran's nuclear row through diplomacy. Iran has called for talks on its nuclear programme with the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany (P5+1), which have been stalled for a year.Diplomats said Iran was believed to have begun feeding uranium gas into centrifuges in Fordow in late December as part of final preparations to use the machines for enrichment.Iran is already refining uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent - far more than the 3.5 percent level usually required to power nuclear energy plants - above ground at another location.Diplomats say it is moving this higher-grade enrichment to Fordow in an apparent bid to better protect the work against any enemy attacks. It also plans to sharply boost output capacity.The United States and Israel, Iran's arch foes, have not ruled out strikes against the Islamic state if diplomacy fails to resolve the dispute. Iran has been hit by four rounds of U.N. sanctions and the United States and the E.U. have imposed increasingly tight economic sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme.Iran disclosed the existence of Fordow to the IAEA only in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected it.