Showing posts with label opec. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opec. Show all posts

Friday, May 31, 2013

NEWS,31.05.2013



Opec set to hold oil output


OPEC ministers said they expected to keep oil output levels unchanged despite concern about demand in view of the weak economic outlook, as they started a crucial meeting in Vienna on Friday.
The 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), comprising nations from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, is mindful that cutting production could raise prices and boost their incomes but that this could also boomerang by hampering fragile global recovery.
The outlook for global economic growth, and demand for oil, has been clouded by the combined impact of Chinese inflationary pressures, the long-running eurozone sovereign debt crisis and uncertainty over policy for the US economy, Opec says.
Questioned about whether the cartel would seek to roll over its daily output target of 30 million barrels per day, Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said that this was likely.
"We are producing about 30 million barrels (per day). I think we will take the decision to maintain the situation," he told journalists at the start of the meeting in Vienna, where the cartel is headquartered.
He also expressed satisfaction with the current price level, noting: "$100 per barrel is good."
In reality, actual output exceeds 30 million mbpd.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei added: "There's nothing controversial (at this meeting), the levels of production being good and adequate to the market and the prices are appropriate."
Kuwait's OPEC governor Siham Abdulrazzak Razzouqi also said she expected no change, saying: "We think that the market is very stable."
"Supply and demand are in balance, prices are at a good level. Everything seems to be fine."
Even ahead of the meeting, there were indications that Opec - which pumps about 35% of global oil supplies would leave its official oil output ceiling at 30 mbpd, where it has stood since the end of 2011.
That OPEC produces above that level is partly thanks to a higher production from kingpin Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest producer in the cartel. It has also risen in recent times due to recovering production from Iraq and Libya.
"We are going to call for members to respect the ceiling," added Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, signalling concern about overproduction.
Meanwhile Iran, which in the run-up to the meeting had pushed for lower output, seemed to have joined the consensus for maintaining the status quo.
"I think the current ceiling is logical, rational, reasonable," he said Friday as Opec members began their meeting.
"At the closed-door session we will recommend (to member countries) to keep maintaining their production (and) not surplus," he said.
Iran has been hit by international oil sanctions over its controversial nuclear programme which has seen it drop from second to fifth largest OPEC producer in the last two years.
Opec countries have been generally satisfied with the price of $100 per barrel, although Algeria and Qatar on Friday appeared flexible on the price.
"We dont have any price target, we are following the market," Algerian Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi told journalists.
Ahead of Opec's ministerial meeting, Brent oil prices stood at $101.60 in late morning trading in London.
Demand is being contained by weak growth in many advanced economies and by the boom of oil and gas production from shale resources in North America.
Opec's Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri added that the cartel predicted an upswing in energy demand growth in the third and fourth quarter of this year.
However, he sounded a gloomy warning over the world economy.
"For demand growth, we have to look to the world economy. Some countries are fine, some countries are not really fine," El-Badri said.
"We have to watch out for demand ... because the United States has fiscal problems, China is also struggling with their inflation and, of course you know the problems of Europe."
Friday's gathering will also seek to identify the criteria under which members will decide their next secretary general at the next scheduled meet in December.

Record unemployment in the eurozone


Unemployment has reached a new high in the eurozone and inflation remains well below the European Central Bank's target, underscoring just how severe a challenge EU leaders face to revive the bloc's sickly economy.
Joblessness in the 17 nation currency area rose to 12.2% in April, statistics agency Eurostat said on Friday, marking a new record since the data series began in 1995.
With the eurozone also in its longest recession since its creation in 1999, consumer price inflation was far below the ECB's target of just below 2%, coming in at 1.4% in May, slightly above April's 1.2% rate.
That rise may quieten concerns about deflation, but the deepening unemployment crisis is a threat to the social fabric of the eurozone, with almost two-thirds of young Greeks unable to find work exemplifying southern Europe's threat of creating a 'lost generation'.
Economists and policy makers have expressed concern that the greatest threat to the unity of the eurozone is now social breakdown from the crisis, rather than market-driven factors.
In France, Europe's second largest economy, the number of jobless rose to a record in April, while in Italy, the unemployment rate hit its highest level in at least 36 years, with 40% of young people out of work.
Some economists expect the ECB, which meets on June 6, to act to revive the economy and go beyond another interest rate cut to consider a US-style money printing programme known as quantitative easing.
"We do not expect a strong recovery in the euro zone," said Nick Matthews, a senior economist at Nomura International in London. "It puts pressure on the ECB to deliver even more conventional and non conventional measures."
In the past, the euro zone has needed economic growth of around 1.5% to create new jobs, according to Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING. With the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasting this week that the euro zone economy would contract by 0.6% this year, unemployment is set to worsen long before it turns around.
"We do not see a stabilisation in unemployment before the middle of next year," said Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Economist at Credit Agricole in Paris. "The picture in France is still deteriorating."
5.6 million young jobless
ECB President Mario Draghi, whose bold decision-making helped protect the eurozone from break-up last year with a plan to buy the bonds of governments in trouble, has so far preferred to leave the onus on euro zone governments to reform.
A majority of economists polled by Reuters do not expect the ECB to cut its deposit or main refinancing rates in the coming months, although the OECD this week called for the bank to consider quantitative easing.
The Commission, the EU's executive, told governments this week they must focus on reforms to outdated labour and pension systems to regain Europe's lost business dynamism, a move to shift focus away from debilitating budget cuts towards growth.
EU leaders meeting at the end of June in Brussels are expected to put the problem of joblessness at the forefront of their summit.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who chairs the meetings, said last week youth unemployment was one of the most pressing issues for the 27-nation European Union as a whole.
Ministers from France, Italy and Germany, meeting in Paris this week, called on their counterparts to help tackle youth unemployment, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble describing it as a "battle for Europe's unity".
In April, 5.6 million people under 25 were unemployed in the European Union, with 3.6 million of those in the eurozone.
Even if governments take on unions and vested interests to enact reforms, they will take time to produce benefits.
The impact of the eurozone's debt and banking crises has been sapping confidence from companies and households.
Private consumption saved Germany from slipping into recession in the first three months of this year, but retail sales still fell unexpectedly in April because of the cold European winter.
Meanwhile, French consumer spending dropped again in February, falling by 0.2% after contracting in January. French household purchasing power contracted in 2012 for the first time since 1984.

N Korean farmers plant rice for bonuses


North Korean farmers knee deep in muddy paddies across the country have a new incentive during this year's crucial rice planting season: Possible bonuses that are part of an economic shift echoing ally China's steps three decades ago toward embracing capitalism.

Details about the changes are emerging nearly two months after the regime unveiled dual goals of building the economy and nuclear weapons in the first concrete economic policy laid out by leader Kim Jong-un, since he took power in December 2011.

Farmers say they have begun working under the new policies, which are designed to boost production by giving managers and workers financial incentives.

Foreign analysts say the moves to spur
North Korea's moribund economy suggest Pyongyang is taking cues from Beijing on how to incorporate free market ideas within its rigid socialist system.

The North's policy enshrining its provocative push to build atomic weapons as a national goal has complicated efforts to force
North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme and dominated international discussion about the country.

Pyongyang's economic priorities have drawn far less attention but some experts think important reforms could be unfolding.

Lifting living standards

Impoverished
North Korea suffers chronic food and power shortages and has not released economic data for decades.

South Korea's central bank estimates the North's gross national income, an indicator of the average standard of living, was $1 250 per person in 2011 compared with $23 400 for South Korea.

In the past, the North Korean state set workers' salaries. Under new measures announced on 1 April, the managers of farms, factories and other enterprises have been given leeway to set salaries and offer bonuses to workers who help drive up production.

"This is definitely significant," said John Delury, an assistant professor of Chinese studies at
Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea.

Providing material incentives and loosening central control over economic decision making are two key elements in the transition from a command economy to a market-based system, he said.

Also announced on 1 April: The reappointment of Pak Pong Ju as premier after his dismissal from the post in 2007. Pak was central to attempts at economic change more than a decade ago.

"You just wouldn't bring back Pak Pong Ju unless you were going to try readjusting economy policy. There would be no reason to do that," said Delury, calling it a strong sign of Kim Jong Un's interest in lifting living standards.

Economic reform

North Korea's policy changes find an echo in China's market reforms that have transformed it into a manufacturing powerhouse and world's second-largest economy, while also lifting several hundred million out of grinding poverty.

Beijing dismantled the centrally planned economy slowly. In the 1970s, it began allowing farmers to keep more of their harvests, giving them an incentive to grow more to sell on newly permitted free markets. Food production soared.

In the mid-'80s, the government gave state enterprises the authority to link bonuses and salaries to better performance. Those changes were mostly aimed at managers, but they cracked a communist-era preference for egalitarianism.

New rules in the early 1990s gave state enterprises full flexibility to set wages, widening the use of performance incentives. In that decade,
China truly broke away from its centralised "iron rice bowl" system of guaranteed employment and state-set incomes.

Delury and others cautioned that if the North is intent on economic reform, it is likely to be a fitful process.

"We have to be careful not to say: Aha, it's all change, it's finally here," he said. "The point is, and we see this from the Chinese case, this is a process that unfolds over time and there are starts and stops, too. But this is a strong signal of a push."

‘Greater profits’ 

AP reported last September that farmers were notified of upcoming management changes at collective farms that would put decision-making and responsibility for crops in the hands of local officials and give farmers the right to hold onto surpluses.

"Last year, we studied reasonable economic management methods in different fields of economic work, and introduced it to some units on a trial basis," Ri Ki Song, an economist from North Korea's Academy of Social Sciences, told AP this week.

North Korea formally announced the policy, and its expansion to include factories and other enterprises, a day after holding a plenary session of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party. Rodong Sinmun, the party paper, called it a "new strategic line".

Ri, however, dismissed characterisations of the changes as reform.

What's new, he said, is allowing managers to dole out goods and cash as incentives. In addition, after meeting a state quota, managers can set their employees' salaries and offer bonuses to those who help drive up production, he said.

The main goal: to encourage "greater profits" and solve
North Korea's chronic food shortage, Ri said.

‘Repay’ the state

Ri said North Koreans work hard, but the new incentives give them motivation to work even harder. "They are saying that higher salaries and shares will improve their life."

Political and military expert Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS in
Hawaii, noted that North Korea has rolled back past attempts at economic reform.

"The North Koreans have played reform games before and then just sort of pulled the rug out from under it," he said. Cossa cited NGOs as saying the military is pressuring farmers to donate their portion to the army.

Last year, a farmer's wife in Sariwon, south of
Pyongyang, told the AP she planned to donate any surplus harvest to the state as a token of her patriotism.

At the Tongbong farm in the eastern city of
Hamhung, farmers are in the midst of a busy rice planting season after a long, cold winter.

This year, things are being managed differently, said Kim Jong Jin, deputy chairperson of the farm's managing committee.

He said the state provided the farm with the rice seedlings, which farmers are now transplanting to paddies by hand. Farmers are on smaller teams that have direct responsibility over their plots.

After the rice is harvested, farmers must "repay" the state for the seeds. At Tongbong that means giving the state about 193kg of rice as payback for every 140kg of seedlings they received.

But any surplus can be kept by the team to sell, barter or distribute - a change from past policies that required farmers to turn all harvests over to the state.

"This encourages enthusiasm for production and we get more of what's produced," Kim said.

Police clash with Istanbul protesters


Riot police fired tear gas at hundreds of demonstrators on Friday, injuring at least a dozen people, in a bid to break up a four-day protest against a major construction project in Istanbul's iconic Taksim Square.
Several of the wounded were left lying on the ground unconscious after they were hit with large quantities of tear gas and pepper spray, while two people were hospitalised with injuries to the head, an AFP photographer witnessed.
Some protesters were also hurt when a scaffolding collapsed as they tried to escape the police intervention on the square.
Construction had began in November to pedestrianise the zone surrounding the famous square, a traditional gathering point for rallies and protests as well as a popular tourist destination.
The controversial project is aimed at easing the chronic congestion in the roads around the square.
Demonstrators have been trying to prevent workers from razing Taksim Excursion Park, which lies across from the square's centrepiece, the Ataturk monument. In place of the park, a shopping mall is to be built.
Critics say the project would turn the square into yet another soulless concrete commercial zone aimed at making money while driving away residents who use it as a meeting point.
Taksim Square has for decades been the rallying point for millions of Istanbul residents, as well as the political stage for demonstrators who pour in on a daily basis to make their views on different causes heard.

Notes to Obama, mayor had gun threats


A suspicious letter mailed to the White House and intercepted this week was similar to two threatening, poison-laced letters on the gun law debate sent to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, one of the nation's most potent gun-control advocates, officials said on Thursday.
Yet another letter became known publicly on Thursday, one tainted with the poison ricin and mailed to President Barack Obama from Spokane, Washington, the FBI said. Authorities have arrested a man in Spokane in connection with that letter, which was intercepted on May 22.
The Secret Service said the White House-bound letter similar to the ones Bloomberg was sent was intercepted by a White House mail screening facility. Two similar letters postmarked in Louisiana and sent to Bloomberg in New York and his gun control group in Washington contained traces of the deadly poison ricin.
It wasn't immediately clear whether the letter sent to Obama contained ricin. It was turned over to the FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force for testing and investigation.
The two Bloomberg letters, opened Friday in New York and Sunday in Washington, contained an oily pinkish-orange substance.
New York Police Department Commissioner Raymond Kelly said Thursday the same machine or computer had produced the two letters to Bloomberg and the similar one to Obama and that they may be identical. He referred specific questions to the FBI.
The FBI said in a statement that field tests on the letters were consistent with the presence of a biological agent, and the letters were turned over to an accredited laboratory for the kind of thorough analysis that is needed to verify a tentative finding. "More letters may be received," the statement said, without elaboration.
The body of the letter mailed to New York was addressed to "you" and referenced the gun control debate. Kelly said the unsigned letter says, in so many words: "Anyone who comes for my guns will be shot in the face." He refused to quote directly from the letter, saying he didn't want to do the author's bidding.
Second letter
Bloomberg has emerged as one of the country's most important gun-control advocates, able to press his case with both his public position and his private money.
The New York letter was opened at the city's mail facility in Manhattan in a biochemical containment box, which is a part of the screening process for mayor's office mail.
"In terms of the processes and procedures that are in place now we think they worked," Kelly said. "This is sort of an effect of the post-9/11 world that we live in that these checks and facilities are in place and the system worked."
The second letter was opened on Sunday by Mark Glaze, director of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, the Washington-based nonprofit Bloomberg started.
The letter Glaze opened tested positive for ricin initially. The other letter to Bloomberg at first tested negative but tested positive at a retest Wednesday.
The postal workers union, citing information it got in a Postal Service briefing, said the letters bore a Shreveport, Louisiana, postmark. Kelly would not comment on the origin of the letter.
Louisiana State Police spokesperson Julie Lewis said state authorities have deferred to the FBI and have not opened an investigation. The Shreveport postal center handles mail from Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas, so the letter could have come from any of those states, Lewis said.
The people who initially came into contact with the letters showed no symptoms of exposure to the poison, but three officers who later examined the New York letter experienced minor symptoms that have since abated, police said. The mayor visited the mailroom on Thursday but made no public comments on the topic.
Background checks
On Wednesday, he said he didn't know why they were sent.
One of the letters "obviously referred to our anti-gun efforts, but there's 12 000 people that are going to get killed this year with guns and 19 000 that are going to commit suicide with guns, and we're not going to walk away from those efforts", said Bloomberg, adding that he didn't feel threatened.
According to the federal Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, ricin is a poison found naturally in castor beans. Symptoms can include difficulty breathing, vomiting and redness on the skin depending on how the affected person comes into contact with the poison.
The letters were the latest in a string of toxin-laced missives, but authorities would not say whether the letters to Bloomberg and Obama were believed to be linked to any other recent case.
In Washington state, a 37-year-old was charged last week with threatening to kill a federal judge in a letter that contained ricin. On Thursday, the FBI said a suspicious letter containing ricin was mailed to Obama from Spokane on the same day similar ricin-tainted letters were mailed to the judge and to a post office. A fourth letter, sent to nearby Fairchild Air Force Base, continues to undergo testing, officials said.
About a month earlier, letters containing the substance were addressed to Obama, a US senator and a Mississippi judge. One of the letters postmarked in Memphis, Tennessee, was traced back to Tupelo, Mississippi, and a Mississippi man was arrested.
Bloomberg and Boston Mayor Thomas Menino founded Mayors Against Illegal Guns, which now counts more than 700 mayors nationwide as members.
It lobbies federal and state lawmakers, and it aired a spate of television ads this year urging Congress to expand background checks and pass other gun-control measures after the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.
The background check proposal failed in a Senate vote in April, and other measures gun-control advocates wanted including a ban on sales of military-style assault weapons have stalled.
Separately, Bloomberg also has made political donations to candidates who share his desire for tougher gun restrictions. His super PAC, Independence USA, put $2.2m into a Democratic primary this winter for a congressional seat in Illinois, for example. Bloomberg's choice, former state lawmaker Robin Kelly, won.

Hagel to discuss cyberthreat with Chinese


The United States must develop "rules of the road" with China and other countries to mitigate cyber threats, Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel said on Thursday.

The defence secretary spoke after a Pentagon report found that Chinese hackers have gained access to secret designs for a slew of sophisticated
US weapons programs, possibly jeopardising the American military's technological edge.

Officials say the breaches described in the Defence Science Board paper were part of a broad Chinese campaign of espionage against top
US defence contractors and government agencies.

"The
United States knows where many of these incursions come from," Hagel told reporters on his plane as he travelled to the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, an international security conference in Singapore.

"It's pretty hard to prove that they are directed by any specific enemy but we can tell where they come from and we've got to be honest about that."

Cyber security is set to be discussed for the first time at a meeting of Nato defence ministers next week.

"We've got to find ways, working with the Chinese, working with everybody, [to develop] rules of the road, some international understandings," Hagel said.

Relationship


The Pentagon chief said
Washington would press Beijing using both public diplomacy and private talks.

"I think it's always important when dealing with other nations that you use a very significant range of options," he added.

"I've rarely seen that public engagement resolves the problem but it's important that people state where they are on these issues."

During his stay in
Singapore through Monday, Hagel plans to hold multiple bilateral talks with his Asian counterparts.

He pointed to an "evolving" military-to-military relationship with
China.

The top US uniformed military officer, chairperson of the joint chiefs of staff General Martin Dempsey visited
Beijing in April and Hagel has invited his Chinese counterpart Chang Wanquan to Washington in August.

President Barack Obama is set to meet with new Chinese leader Xi Jingping next week in
California.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

NEWS,03.02.2013



Fiat boss eyes Chrysler merger in 2014


Fiat boss Sergio Marchionne said Sunday that he expected the merger of the Italian car giant and its US partner Chrysler will take place in 2014."We will succeed in doing it," he said in an interview with the editor of the Repubblica newspaper. "We and VEBA (the United Auto Workers pension fund a Chrysler shareholder) have different opinions on the value of Chrysler but we will resolve the problem in 2014."Macchione, who heads both companies, had said on January 30 that the ties between the two automakers were "irreversible" and would merge "as soon as I can afford it" but did not put date on the merger.Asked on Sunday if Fiat would keep its Turin headquarters Macchione said: "We are a big group present throughout the world, it will depend on access to financial markets and the choices of the Agnelli family" who founded Fiat.He had "not thought" about the future name of the new entity, he said.The deal will ultimately give Fiat a 65% stake in Chrysler and full ownership by 2015.Boosted by increased sales at Chrysler, the Italian giant on Wednesday reported a profitable 2012, announcing a fourth quarter net profit that rose to €388m from €265m the year before.The company said it was aiming for profits of between €1.2bn and €1.5bn this year.Fiat took a 20% stake in Chrysler in 2009 as the third largest US automaker emerged from a government-financed restructuring under bankruptcy protection.It has since steadily expanded its stake by purchasing shares owned by the US government and the VEBA fund.

Starbucks tax offer too little, too late


Despite pledging to pay millions of pounds in extra tax in Britain, Starbucks faces a battle to restore its reputation over its fiscal stance, with analysts saying the offer is "too little too late".With 760 Starbucks outlets dotting Britain, coffee lovers need not travel far to find the familiar green signage and grab a frothy latte or a flat white.But surveys suggest British consumers may be losing appetite for the US chain following the revelation last year that it has paid just £8.6m in British corporation tax since 1998, despite generating £3 billion in revenues.The revelations sparked a stream of negative publicity plus protests outside coffee shops which analysts say hit the brand hard, though Starbucks itself insists "UK customers have remained loyal".Under the weight of pressure from lawmakers and consumers, the company pledged in December to pay an additional £20m in corporation tax over two years.But Sarah Murphy, director of market researchers YouGov BrandIndex, said the offer "has done little to slow down negative sentiment surrounding the brand."BrandIndex has tracked public perception of the coffee giant over several months. Its "Buzz" index gives companies a score based on what people have been hearing about the brand, with zero representing equal levels of positive and negative.In early October Starbucks' Buzz score stood at +1.9, but this plummeted to -28.4 following the tax headlines, and reached -45.2 in mid-December."That was quite a significant decline," said Murphy, adding that measures of perceptions of Starbucks' quality and value also sank during that time.In November, Britain's parliamentary accounts committee grilled top executives from Google, Amazon and Starbucks over their tax affairs.The apparent peak in negativity surrounding Starbucks in December came after the committee's chairman Margaret Hodge slammed companies involved in tax avoidance schemes as "totally immoral".Since then, Murphy says the brand "does seem to be making a slow recovery", but that the company "did too little too late."Social media agency Yomego identified similar patterns. It tracked online conversation over the same period and found negative comments about Starbucks increasingly outweighed positive.Some 95% of comments on Starbucks UK's Facebook and Twitter pages made reference to tax evasion, analysts said.Yomego managing director Steve Richards said: "The outrage over tax avoidance can't help but have an impact on a company's reputation in social channels."The old adage that 'bad news travels fast' has never been more true. Now news has so many channels to travel through, with the potential to multiply as people comment on and share stories."But does negative chatter cause consumers to shop elsewhere?Restaurant manager Julia Stypik said she's "not a huge fan of Starbucks... There's much better coffee and plenty of competitors."However this did not stop her frequenting a busy London branch of the chain one lunch-hour.On the tax issue, she told AFP: "I think they have been very clever but this should end at some point. It's unfair. Everyone has to pay taxes. "Some critics argue Starbucks is being unfairly targeted; Britain needs to tighten up on loopholes which allow companies to pay less corporation tax by moving profits abroad. Starbucks has acknowledged paying no corporation tax for three years on sales worth £400m owing to fees paid to other parts of its business. Executives insist its British division is unprofitable.Despite operating within the law, the multinational has borne fierce criticism from lawmakers, including Prime Minister David Cameron who told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month that tax-avoiding companies must "wake up and smell the coffee".The swipe was ill-received by Starbucks, according to the Sunday Telegraph which claimed it threatened to pull £100m of British investment, though a source close to the company told AFP "no threat was made".A Starbucks spokesperson said: "Starbucks agrees with the prime minister that all businesses should pay their fair share."In the UK, we employ 9 000 people, contribute £300m a year to the economy and are foregoing tax deductions that will make the Exchequer at least £20m better off."Starbucks says it remains "fully committed" to opening 300 new stores and creating 5 000 new jobs by 2016.

Kuwait growth to slow - report


Oil-driven economic growth in the Gulf state of Kuwait is forecast to slow down this year and in 2014 as crude output is expected to remain flat, the National Bank of Kuwait said in a report Sunday.After Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a healthy 6.1% in real terms last year, thanks to continued strong oil income, it is forecast to drop to 3.2% in 2013 and to 2.5% in 2014, NBK said.Following a massive contraction of around 8% in 2009 due to the impact of the global financial crisis, Kuwait's economy gradually rebounded to grow by around 8% in 2011 as oil output and price remained high.Oil income in the OPEC member contributes an average of 95% to public revenues. Kuwait ended the past 13 fiscal years in the black and is forecast to post a huge budget surplus in the current fiscal year which ends on March 31.Oil GDP, which grew by 15% and 10% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, is expected to remain flat this year and contract by around 1.5% in 2014, according to the NBK report.But the bank revised upward expected non-oil GDP growth from 4% to 5% this year based on signs of greater determination by the authorities to implement large infrastructure projects.Most projects under a $110bn four-year development plan, that runs until 2014, have been stalled because of a political crisis in the emirate.The opposition has staged protests to demand the dissolution of parliament elected last month on the basis of an electoral law that was amended by the emir, claiming that the change is illegal and aimed at electing a rubber stamp body.But over the past few months, authorities either signed or gave the green light for mega projects worth around $40bn, mostly in the oil and power sectors.Inflation this year and next is expected to remain moderate at between 3-4%.Kuwait says it sits on around 10% of global oil reserves and pumps around 3.0 million barrels per day. It is estimated to have $400bn in foreign assets run by the sovereign wealth fund.The emirate has a native population of 1.2 million in addition to 2.6 million foreigners, mostly Asians and Arabs.

China's shortage threatens economy


China's demographic timebomb is ticking much louder with the first fall in its labour pool for decades, analysts say, highlighting the risk that the country grows old before it grows rich.The abundant supply of cheap workers in the world's most populous nation has created unprecedented cost efficiencies that underpinned its blistering economic expansion over the past 35 years, propelling the global economy forward.But now the inexorable consequences of the one-child policy imposed in the late 1970s are beginning to appear, and threaten to impact its future growth.China's working-age population, defined as 15-59, fell 3.45 million last year, official data showed earlier this month the first decline since 1963, after tens of millions died in a famine caused by the Great Leap Forward.The immediate effect may be small in a nation of 1.35 billion people, but the cumulative effects will accelerate over the coming decades.The number of people aged between 15 and 64 will drop by around 40 million between 2014 and 2030, said Wang Guangzhou, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a government think-tank --more than Poland's entire population."The population is aging so fast that we are running short of time to deal with it," said Li Jun, also of CASS, adding the family planning policy had exacerbated the problem.China's proportion of over-65-year-olds is projected to double from seven to 14% over only 26 years a key demographic measure that took the United States 69 years to complete."Undoubtedly it will substantially slow down China's potential growth rate," Yao Wei, an economist with Societe Generale in Hong Kong, told AFP.An ageing population not only means fewer people available to employ and higher labour costs, but investment a key driver of China's growth will be harder to maintain as families spend their savings on health care, she said.Chinese authorities maintain that controlling its population growth has been key to increasing its prosperity.But while China has risen to become the world's second-largest economy, on a per capita basis it still lags far behind the US and other developed countries.Industrial disputes have become more common in recent years, as workers demand higher pay and better working conditions on the back of growing awareness of their rights and the shortage of skilled staff.Multinational companies are looking to other developing economies with lower wages for further expansion, with some already moving production bases out of China to rivals such as Indonesia and Vietnam.In a survey of 514 Japanese manufacturers by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation last year, the number of respondents voting China as the top destination for overseas business fell by more than 10 percentage points on 2011.Economists said China must look to speed up the transformation of its economic model and move up the value chain.The golden period of the manufacturing industry, particularly those depending on exports, has gone," said Yao.At the same time, she said, the country was woefully underprepared to meet the burden of caring for the elderly."The fiscal situation is not prepared and the social security network is not complete," she said.By around 2060, every three Chinese workers will have to support two people above 60, compared with a ratio of five to one now, according to Li's projections.It is a crucial challenge for the ruling Communist Party, said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based analyst with research firm IHS Global Insight."Delivering growth and delivering social security to the general public are the key things for the state to (maintain) its legitimacy."Analysts said the medical services are increasingly expensive and hard to access, while the country's flagship public pension plans are crippled by problems including insolvency risks, difficulties in expanding coverage and mismanagement.A rural areas programme was introduced in 2009 to provide people from the countryside with their first ever state-subsided retirement scheme, but its payouts are particularly meagre in many areas as low as 55 yuan ($9) a month.The husband of Du Wenlan, a farmer from Chongqing, gets 80 yuan a month from the plan. She only buys new clothes once every three years, she said, and tries to save money by diluting their rice porridge."What can 80 yuan do?" she asked.On the streets of Beijing, Su Xu, 30, who works for a cosmetics company, told AFP: "I panic when I think about my retirement."

Why 'A players' matter


It's All About Who You Hire, How They Lead... and Other Essential Advice from a Self-Made Leader by Morton L MandelTHIS is an unusual book on leadership.It is the distilled wisdom of an American businessman and philanthropist, but that in itself is not unusual as there are literally thousands of books of this kind.There are three facts that make this book unusual. First, Mandel was described by the business guru, Peter Drucker, in a Forbes magazine article as one of the three businessmen he admired most. (The other two were Jack Welsh of General Electric and Andy Grove of Intel.)Second, his company, Premier Industrial Corporation, was the lead anecdote in a Business Week cover story on customer service, and superlative customer service is always the result of a business that is well managed.Finally, Mandel is a self-made dollar billionaire; his is a genuine story of rags to riches.The title of the book, “It is all about who you hire" encapsulates much of its wisdom. Great leaders have always had an undue impact on the organisations they lead, whether the organisation is a non-profit, a for-profit or a country.This position has led to Mandel insisting that only “A players” occupy leadership positions in his own companies, and in the many public benefit organisations he served and those he established with his own wealth.In a conversation with Mandel, Drucker asserted that you must always put your very best person into your greatest opportunity. When Mandel countered with the question: what if your best person is dentist and your greatest opportunity is a brass foundry, Drucker replied that the best person would fast realise what he could not do and fast find the right person to do it.This begs the question  what is an “A player?” Mandel has five criteria: intellect, values, passion, work ethic, and experience in this order.The complexity of modern business requires its leader to have intellectual firepower, that ability to analyse facts correctly, interrogate situations cleverly, apply thoughtful judgement, and make good decisions.Fortunately, there are many ways to see a person’s intellect and Mandel favours school and university grades because they are taken over long periods and therefore are more reliable than a quick test or flash of brilliance in an interview. Values are harder to discern, but how a candidate talks about their parents, teacher and role models does provide clues.Intellect and values without passion won’t get results you require from the leader. Passion, unlike values, is much easier to discern because you can feel it, hear, it see it. If you can feel it, so will the leader’s staff.The work ethic Mandel is referring to is not only the capacity to work long and work hard, but the way you engage with your work. The work ethic is the belief that work goes a long way in defining oneself.Experience comes last on this list of what you look for when you hire an “A player” because you can help an incumbent to have the relevant experience if he has the other four ingredients.“A players” will need to be paid well, but this is always a small investment for the type of return they are able create. A greater problem is keeping them; they will not stay long in a company or organisation which does not have a rich, deep and ethical culture.A deeply ethical culture is the created and maintained only through diligently enforcing and reinforcing ethical behaviour between staff, and between the company and its suppliers and customers. It requires the establishing codes of conduct that are taken seriously, and never giving in to the temptation to compromise even if the cost is high.Mandel recalls a hugely valuable deal his firm had worked hard to close. When it was secured, the representative of the customer company explained that a 5% consideration was required a veiled request for a “side payment.”There was no discussion as to whether Mandel’s company should accede to the request, so clear were the company's values to all. They don’t engage in dishonest practices, no matter the cost, so the deal was declined.The style of management practised and promoted by Mandel is the polar opposite of the laissez faire type, where the CEO hires his leaders and releases them to do as they will. It is also not a command and control style.Mandel stays on top of all issues to provide guidance and assistance so that both the decisions and the execution are superb.The managers we want out of our way are invariably the managers who we do not respect. These are not managers who are helping you to do your best work; rather, they want you to blindly execute their will.One of the techniques to achieve your personal best in your private life as well as your career is the “Factsbook.” This is a three-ring binder that every leader at every level has that contains minutes of every meeting you have with your manager, all your assignments, your progress in these assignments, and even a schedule of your meetings for the year.At the beginning of each meeting the notes from the last meeting are read aloud to the manager. This seemingly odd practice is of enormous value in keeping responsibilities clear and ensuring they are fulfilled. Consider this: how many times have decisions you and a staff member agreed should be done, not been carried out? Then read the chapter on Factbooks and start using them.The book covers a wide array of thoughts ranging from uncommonly high commitment to satisfying a customer to what to watch out for in mergers or acquisitions. Many of the lessons were learned from Mandel’s successes, but equally from failures or missteps. What Mandel stresses, as seen from having been there, is that there is no difference between running a for-profit and a not-for-profit organisation. The only difference is the measures of success.This book will enlighten you, remind you of things you already know, but perhaps don’t practice, and give you a perspective on doing business successfully. The approach works. Mandel proved it.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

NEWS,13.12.2012



Mild pick-up for US economy next year


The US economy is expected to remain sluggish next year, despite widespread expectations for more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday, a  poll showed.Most consensus forecasts for the first half of 2013 were downgraded to their lowest since  began polling for this period more than a year ago. The forecast for the current quarter was slashed again.That underscores a very fragile world economic outlook, given sharp slowdowns in many big emerging economies such as Brazil and India and only a tentative sign of re-emergence of China's economic growth engine."Too much of the global economy is stumbling to support export demand," said Carl Riccadonna, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank. "It's Europe, it's recession in Japan, (and) softer growth out of China for much of the year.""US exports are likely to pose a drag on growth in the current quarter, which is something we haven't see since the collapse in trade during the recession," he said.Much depends on whether politicians can sort out a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff", a series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts next year. Uncertainty around that has already damaged business confidence and curtailed hiring.Indeed, the poll showed growth is expected to have slowed to just 1.2% on an annualised basis in the quarter that ends this month, down sharply from 1.6% in the November poll, and well below the economy's potential.Weak exports have dragged on growth, not to mention superstorm Sandy, which hit the US east coast in October and shut down most of New York City and surrounding area for days, damaging business and infrastructure.The outlook for all of 2013 has been chopped to 1.9%, far below the Fed's September prediction of 2.5%-3.0%, and also the lowest consensus for 2013 polled so far this year.Despite a third round of bond purchases from the Federal Reserve to boost the jobs market, employment expectations remained tepid. The consensus for average monthly non-farm payrolls growth was mostly unchanged at 127 000 for the first three months of 2013. That comes despite a strong majority of forecasters, 47 of 51, expecting the central bank to buy more US Treasuries when its Operation Twist program expires at the end of December.The Fed is expected to buy $45bn of Treasuries every month in addition to the already-announced purchases of $40bn every month in mortgage-backed securities. But these new purchases will further expand the Fed's balance sheet.The poll also showed the Fed is likely to continue its monetary stimulus for at least a year, making for an additional $1 trillion of purchases. The Fed has bought bonds worth $2.3 trillion in two prior rounds of quantitative easing.A majority, 31 of 49, also expect the Fed eventually to adopt numerical thresholds for inflation and unemployment, similar to results of a survey taken last week.So far, markets have been sanguine that Washington will avoid the fiscal cliff. US stocks have erased all their losses after the November 6 presidential election and the S&P 500 is up almost 1% so far this month.But signs from lawmakers have been mixed with nothing concrete to indicate a deal will be reached by the end-of-the-year deadline.US House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner offered no signs of progress on Tuesday but said he remains hopeful that both sides would reach an agreement.But Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid said it would be difficult to get a deal before Christmas.If a deal is not reached it could lead to $600bn being sucked out of the economy in 2013 in what is essentially a self activating austerity program built into current law.


EU approves budget for 2013


EU lawmakers gave final approval on Thursday for a European Union budget of nearly €133bn ($172bn) for 2013, removing some uncertainty around the bloc's future funding after talks on spending for 2014-2020 broke down.The vote by the European Parliament in Strasbourg brought some clarity to EU finances at least for next year, and saw off a threat that some EU programmes, including the Erasmus student exchange scheme, would run out of money this year."We have managed to avoid a budgetary crisis on top of the economic crisis," Goran Farm, a Swedish socialist member of the European Parliament, said in a statement. However, doubt still surrounds the EU's long term spending plans. EU leaders were unable to reach a compromise last month on a proposed budget of some €1 trillion between 2014-2020. Under the 2013 deal, EU payments next year will be limited to a maximum of €132.84bn, which represents a just-above-inflation rise of 2.9% from the original budget agreed on for this year. The vote will also unlock an extra €6bn in spending for this year.The €6bn will fill a spending gap in research, education and employment programmes and means total EU spending in 2012 of €135bn, the highest level ever.About three-quarters of the EU's annual budget is spent on farm subsidies and funding for new motorways, bridges and other public infrastructure projects in poorer eastern and southern European member countries.EU leaders will hold further talks, possibly in February, to try to agree on the bloc's long-term funding.


EU, IMF agree to lend Greece €49bn


Eurozone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to release €49.1bn in aid to Greece by the end of March, with most of that sum flowing immediately, senior EU officials said on Thursday."Money will be flowing to Greece as early as next week," eurogroup chairman Juncker told a news conference after a meeting of ministers from the single currency bloc. "We are convinced the programme is back on a sound track."A eurogroup statement said €34.3 bn would be paid out in the coming days and the remainder in the first quarter of 2013.Agreement to release the funds hinged on the success of a debt buyback launched by Greece last week, which will enable Athens to retire nearly €20bn in bonds repurchased at a third of their face value from private holders.Juncker said he was not sure that additional measures would be needed to reach an agreed goal to bring Greece's debt down to 124 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020, but the bloc stood ready to take new steps if necessary.



Oil curbs spark new rivalry

 

A new rivalry at the top of the Opec oil group has emerged, pitting up-and-coming Iraq against undisputed cartel heavyweight Saudi Arabia. Having overtaken Iran as Opec's second biggest producer, a rejuvenated Iraq is beginning to worry Riyadh.At Wednesday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries the opening salvos were fired in the struggle over who takes responsibility for cutting output if oil prices, now at a comfortable $108 a barrel, start falling.After 20 years of war, sanctions and civil strife that left its oil industry in disarray, Iraq is in no mood to consider curtailing output, especially as it starts to take off."Iraq will never cut production," said Iraq's Opec governor Falah Alamri. "Some countries that have increased their production in the last two years - they should do so. This is a sovereign issue, not an Opec issue."That was a clear reference to Saudi Arabia, which this summer lifted output to a 30-year high above 10m barrels a day to prevent oil prices ballooning after Western sanctions on Iran halved its production.The view from Riyadh, said delegates at the meeting, is that Iraq should contribute to the next round of Opec supply curbs. If Saudi pushed that line there would be "dark days ahead" warned a senior Iraqi official, saying Baghdad would not even consider output restraints until 2014.Opec delegates said ministers agreed to retain its 30m bpd output target, but many market observers think supply restrictions may be needed sooner rather than later if producers want to prevent slow global growth sending prices tumbling. "Every additional barrel that Iraq produces reinforces its confidence and its expectations that higher production is achievable and it will negotiate on that basis," said Raad Alkadiri of Washington consultancy PFC Energy. "Now Opec is dealing with a much more confident Iraq and Baghdad is looking at regional politics and is less willing to compromise.""Iraq is impervious to arguments. It says that it was subject to sanctions for so long that it has a free pass to rebuild its economy," said Neil Atkinson, director of energy research at Datamonitor.Output from Opec is already down sharply from the highs of the summer when the Saudi surge took the 12-member group to nearly 32m bpd. Production in November was down to 30.8m bpd with Saudi easing to 9.5m bpd. But Opec may need to ease further to balance the market in the first half of next year when, demand depressed by a stagnant economy, its own forecasts indicate the requirement for Opec crude will come in at only 29.25m bpd."We're concerned by the drop in demand and the high level of stocks," said Algerian energy minister Youcef Yousfi."There is rising oil from places like the US and Iraqi output is rising quite sharply. There's a risk that we see a sharp drop in price next year," said Atkinson.Iraq risesThe world's fastest growing crude exporter, Iraq expects more gains next year as foreign companies push production towards the highest level ever, Iraqi oil minister Abdul-Kareem Luaibi told reporters on Sunday ahead of the Vienna meeting.Output began to rise in earnest in 2010 after Baghdad secured service contracts with companies such as BP, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell.Flows have now reached 3.4m bpd, up nearly a million bpd from when companies got down to work three years ago. Luaibi said output in 2013 is expected to average 3.7m bpd, just shy of an all-time high of 3.8m reached in 1979 with exports running at 2.9m bpd, including 250,000 bpd contributed by the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).The changing shape of Middle East politics after the US led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the 2011 Arab Spring plays into Opec dynamics."Political issues sit behind this rivalry," said PFC's Alkadiri. "Regional alliances are pitting Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran against each other."That was illustrated in Wednesday's meeting by a quarrel over the appointment as Opec's next secretary-general, the group's public face and head of its Vienna headquarters.Iran dropped its nomination to back Iraq's candidate against Saudi Arabia.Adding to the heat is the dramatic rise in oil output from the US, spurred by hydraulic fracturing of shale reserves.The US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday that US output will increase 760,000 bpd in 2012, the fastest pace since commercial oil production began in 1859.After years outside Opec's quota system because of low output, Iraq was brought into the fold a year ago when it set the 30m bpd target for all 12 producers. But unlike previous Opec deals no individual quotas were assigned.That suited Saudi Arabia, leaving it free to balance the markets by using its spare capacity as it saw fit. But in the event of a build in inventories that hits prices, Opec may need to restore quotas if it is to enforce a credible production cut. That is likely to prove very difficult, not just because of Iraq but because Iran is very unlikely to accept a quota anywhere near its sanctions-constrained production. Venezuela too could resist a lower quota after disputing independent estimates of its output for years."Quotas would become a big issue if we see a price drop and then everyone would have to come to the table," said Datamonitor's Atkinson. "That would cause enormous problems for Iran and Venezuela."Opec can only hope that a difficult decision is postponed by a continued stand-off between Western powers and Iran over Iran's nuclear programme, and the threat of Israeli military action, keeping oil prices high.That could mean a repeat of 2012, with oil prices supported in 2013 for fear of an attack on Iran, even if demand is poor and market fundamentals weaken."Lady luck has been a huge help for Opec because the macro numbers do not add up to 2012 being a successful year," said oil brokers PVM. "She has come in the form of geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties which have kept speculative interest in oil lively and stimulated stock building."