NEWS,28.09.2012

Netanyahu speech dampens war speculation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's UN speech about Iranian nuclear advances has dampened speculation in Israel that he could order a war this year.Analysing Thursday's address in which Netanyahu literally drew a "red line" on a cartoon bomb to show how close Iran was to building nuclear weaponry, commentators saw his deadline for any military action falling in early or mid-2013, well after US elections in November and a possible snap Israeli poll."The 'decisive year' of 2012 will pass without decisiveness," wrote Ofer Shelah of Maariv newspaper on Friday.Without explicitly saying so, Netanyahu implied Israel would attack Iran's uranium enrichment facilities if they were allowed to process potential weapons-grade material beyond his red line.Maariv and another mass-circulation Israeli daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, said spring (northern hemisphere) 2013 now looked like Netanyahu's target date, given his prediction that by then Iran may have amassed enough 20%-enriched uranium for a first bomb, if purified further.But the front pages of the liberal Haaretz and pro-government Israel Hayom newspapers cited mid-2013 - Netanyahu's outside estimate for when the Iranians would be ready to embark on the last stage of building such a weapon, which could take only "a few months, possibly a few weeks".Reluctant to eleborateIran, which denies it is seeking nuclear arms, said Netanyahu's speech made "baseless and absurd allegations" and that the Islamic Republic "reserves its full right to retaliate with full force against any attack". Israel is widely assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal.Israeli diplomats were reluctant to elaborate on Netanyahu's speech, saying its main aim was to illustrate the threat from Tehran.Asked on Israel's Army Radio whether Netanyahu had signalled he would strike in the spring if US and European Union sanctions fail to curb Iran's nuclear work, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said: "No, no, I would not go that far.""The prime minister clarified a message to the international community [that] if they want to prevent the next war, they must prevent a nuclear Iran," Lieberman added.Netanyahu's increasingly hawkish words on Iran in recent weeks and months strained relations with US President Barack Obama, who has resisted the calls to set Tehran an ultimatum while fending off charges by his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, that he is soft on Israel's security.Netanyahu praised Obama's resolve in his UN address, which the prime minister described as advancing their "common goal" - a strong signal that Israel would not blindside Washington with a unilateral attack on Iran.Netanyahu's political worriesIsrael Hayom pundit Dan Margalit said the speech constituted "an almost explicit acknowledgment that he [Netanyahu] is declaring a truce in the public argument between him and the president. At least, until after the [US] election".Netanyahu has political worries too, given deadlock in his coalition government over the 2013 budget which, if not ratified by December, could trigger an early Israeli election next year.In a broadcast editorial, Army Radio depicted war with Iran as no longer an imminent dilemma troubling the prime minister.Instead, the station said, Netanyahu would have to decide "whether he is going to elections sooner, in January, February, or maybe March, or whether he will be able to pass the budget, take care of the Iranian issue and then go to elections in October [2013] as scheduled".US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said this month that Washington would have "about a year" to stop Iran should it decide to cross the threshold of producing nuclear weaponry - a more expansive timeline than that put forward by Israel.That could spell fresh clashes between the allies over Tehran's continued 20% uranium enrichment, a process the Iranians say they need for medical isotopes but that also brings the fissile material much closer to weapons grade.An Israeli official briefed on the government's Iran strategy cautioned against interpreting dates Netanyahu gave at the United Nations as deadlines, saying the preparations had already been made for military strikes."When he says Iran will have a bomb by this-or-that point in time, that in no way means the war option must wait until then," the official said. "There are other considerations to the timing - operational and strategic."

Spain unveils price of banking rescue

Spain unveils on Friday the full cost of rescuing its stricken banks, seen by investors as one of the final steps before a looming sovereign bailout.An independent audit, to be released after markets close, will serve as the basis for the release of up to €100bn from a eurozone rescue loan agreed in June.It comes a day after Spain announced a tight-fisted budget for 2013, which squeezes out €39bn in austerity measures, sparing only retirement pensions, to rein in the public deficit.Broad, savage cuts including in education and health have sparked fierce protests, leading to clashes outside parliament this week between police and anti-austerity demonstrators.Analysts say Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is hoping the budget and banking audit will satisfy the conditions of any sovereign bailout, saving it the political humiliation of bowing to outside demands."The suspicion is that Rajoy is hoping these new measures will be enough to prevent the imposition of even tougher terms when Spain applies for its bailout," said a report by London-based foreign exchange firm Moneycorp."Whatever his citizens might have thought, investors were impressed by the prime minister's policy. They saw it as a step closer to the bailout which, they still believe, will solve the problems of Spain and the eurozone."The banking audit, led by US financial consultants Oliver Wyman, examines each of Spain's 14 major banking groups making up 90 percent of the struggling financial system.A huge swathe of the system is bogged down with bad loans from a 2008 property market collapse. Only a few, such as Santander, the eurozone's biggest in terms of market value, have solid balance sheets.The audit will also help to determine the price of toxic assets held by the banks, government sources said.A first group of banks, which have already been nationalised and whose capital requirements are expected to be confirmed by the audit, are to receive rescue money from November.Among them is state-rescued lender Bankia, the country's fourth biggest bank, whose request for more than €23bn in capital forced Madrid into the arms of its eurozone partners.Whatever the price tag placed on the rescue, Rajoy's right-leaning Popular Party government has stressed that not all the cash need come from the rescue loan; some may be able to find private financing.But signs are mounting that Madrid, despite all its manoeuvring, may end up picking up the tab for the financial sector rescue, boosting its overall debt level and heightening the urgency of a sovereign bailout.The rescue loan is to be funnelled through Spains's state-backed Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB).But Spain's government had hoped that a new European Stability Mechanism would eventually be empowered by Brussels to inject the loan directly, keeping the debt off Madrid's books.A June summit of European leaders had in fact agreed to set up a European banking union with a single supervisor by the year's end, allowing the ESM to take such action.On Tuesday, however, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland laid down a series of new conditions, and said the ESM should only act on new problem loans, not "legacy assets" such as those being dealt with in Spain.If Spain does formally request a broader sovereign bailout, it would become eligible to benefit from a bond-buying programme for troubled states that was outlined by the European Central Bank on September 6.Such a programme would curb Spain's borrowing costs but to qualify Madrid would have to formally apply for help from the ESM and submit to its conditions.As Spain's borrowing costs remain high, with the yield on 10-year bonds only just below six percent on Friday morning, the odds on a sovereign bailout seemed to be shortening daily.Political tensions are rising between Madrid and the northeastern Spanish region of Catalonia, an economically powerful state that has called snap elections on November 25 in a drive for more independence.The debt-struck region's parliament Thursday voted for referendum on Catalonia's "collective future". Spain's central government has vowed to thwart any attempt to hold a poll on Catalan independence. Investors fear these tensions could make it harder for Madrid to rein in deficits in the regions, which account for half of Spanish expenditure with responsibilities for health and education.The regions' debt situation is perilous, forcing many to apply for help from an €18bn central government liquidity fund. Castilla-La Mancha asked for €848m on Thursday, adding to earlier requests from Catalonia, Valencia, Andalusia and Murcia that already amount to a total of about €15bn.

NEWS,18.08.2012

Barclays 'Deeply Flawed,' Bank of England's Involvement 'Difficult To Justify': Parliamentary Report

 

Company culture at Barclays was "deeply flawed" and the Bank of England's hand in removing its chief executive Bob Diamond was hard to justify, a UK parliamentary report into the "disgraceful" rigging of Libor interest rates said on Saturday.Few emerge unscathed from the Treasury Select Committee's 300-page report and annexes, based on a string of high-profile hearings after Barclays was fined a record $453 million on June 27 for manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate or Libor."Such behaviour would only be possible if the management of the bank turned a blind eye to the culture of the trading floor," the report said."The standards and culture of Barclays, and banking more widely, are in a poor state," it said, adding it was unlikely the bank acted alone. Barclays is the first of several banks expected to be fined for rigging a rate which forms a reference point for home loans, credit cards and other financial transactions worth over $350 trillion globally.The report slammed the UK's Financial Services Authority (FSA) watchdog for being behind the curve, giving ammunition to London's critics by starting its own formal probe into Libor setting two years after U.S. authorities had kicked off theirs.It said the delay contributed to the perceived weakness of London in regulating financial markets and recommended many reforms, several of which are already being looked at elsewhere, such as criminal penalties and direct oversight.The FSA responded that its managing director Martin Wheatley will consider the report's findings in his government-commissioned review of Libor due to be published in September.The government also welcomed the report and would consider any necessary legislative changes called for by Wheatley.Barclays said it does not expect to agree with all the report but "we recognise that change is required, not least to restore stakeholder trust".The FSA and U.S. authorities are still probing HSBC , Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and several non-UK banks in connection with possible manipulation. Diamond, Barclays' Chairman Marcus Agius and Chief Operating Officer Jerry del Missier all quit in July.Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and FSA Chairman Adair Turner told lawmakers they did not demand that Diamond step down, but the report concluded that their intervention meant it was a "fait accompli".King and Turner stepped in following public outrage over Barclays after the rigging was disclosed in June.” The Governor's involvement is difficult to justify," the report said, dismissing King's defence the Bank would be regulating lenders anyway from 2013 when the FSA is scrapped The central bank must be made accountable to avoid such potential abuses of power, the report said.The Bank of England said in a statement it did not have any regulatory responsibility for Libor at the time and that King's meeting with Agius on the day he resigned was "fully justified"The report criticised Barclays' board for several failings and Diamond himself, saying his testimony to parliament was unforthcoming and selective in parts, and fell well short of the candour and frankness expected.Diamond said in a statement he had responded to questions from lawmakers "truthfully, candidly and based on information available to me. I categorically refute any suggestion to the contrary."A focus of the hearings was a conversation between Diamond and Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker in Oct. 2008 when markets were in meltdown after the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brother the previous month.They agreed that the conversation did not amount to directing Barclays to "low ball" its Libor rate submission in a bid to show it had no problem borrowing from other banks.The heavy public emphasis by Barclays on this conversation may have been a "smokescreen" to distract from more serious failings at the lender and made no fundamental difference to the bank's behaviour, the report said."Barclays did not need a nod, a wink or any signal from the Bank of England to lower artificially their Libor submissions. The bank was already well practised in doing this," it said.Tucker told the lawmakers that possible clues to dishonesty did not ring alarm bells at the time, suggesting "naivety" on the part of the BoE, the report added.Tucker has long been seen as a leading candidate to replace BoE Governor Mervyn King, who stands down next year, and while his grilling in the hearings was seen as setting back his chances, he escapes the trenchant criticism levied at other players.Turner, another candidate for the deputy governorship, also escapes uniformly bad criticism, the report saying the FSA was on the case in questioning Barclays' culture of risk taking.But the FSA's probe left unanswered whether senior figures from Whitehall, a reference to government, instructed Tucker to ask Barclays to low ball its Libor submissions.Evidence received by lawmakers suggested Whitehall simply wanted to know if government efforts to prop up the financial system were working and Barclays was safe, the report said."This was understandable given the fragility of the UK and international financial system in October 2008," it added.Libor is overseen by the British Bankers' Association (BBA), whose review in 2008 appears to have been "an opportunity missed to stop the attempted manipulation that was occurring" and the report questions whether the BBA should keep its role.

Juncker: Greece won't leave eurozone

Greece won't leave the 17-nation eurozone, Luxembourg's prime minister said, arguing in an interview published Saturday that an exit wouldn't be politically feasible and would carry unforeseeable risks.Greece has been kept afloat by international loans, but has fallen behind on implementing reforms and austerity measures demanded in exchange, fueling impatience in Germany and other prosperous nations and speculation about a possible euro exit.But Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who also chairs eurozone finance ministers' meetings, was quoted as saying in an interview with Austrian newspaper Tiroler Tageszeitung: "It will not happen unless Greece violates all the conditions and keeps to no agreements.""In the case of a total refusal by Greece regarding budget consolidation and structural reforms, one would have to deal with the question," he said, according to the report. "But because I assume that Greece will try to redouble its efforts and achieve the targets that have been set, there is no reason to assume that this exit scenario can become relevant."Juncker said an exit would be "technically," but not "politically" feasible and insisted: "We are not working on it."There's little enthusiasm among creditors such as Germany for granting Greece more time to fulfill the terms of its international aid packages or other concessions. Juncker said it wasn't possible to say whether Athens might be granted more time before a report next month from its debt inspectors, but he doesn't currently consider an extension "absolutely necessary."Germany's vice chancellor, Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, said recently that the idea of Greece leaving the euro has "lost its horror." A regional official with one of the country's governing parties, Bavarian state finance minister Markus Soeder, has called for Greece to leave the currency this year and argued that "an example must be made of Athens."There has been no such talk from Chancellor Angela Merkel or Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, though they also have shown little appetite for concessions."I have always said that we can help the Greeks, but we cannot responsibly throw money into a bottomless pit," Schaeuble said during an appearance Saturday at his ministry's annual open day.He conceded that "it is immensely difficult for the Greeks," and said that Germans shouldn't speak "disrespectfully" of other nations.

Heineken raises bid for Tiger brewer

Heineken NV has raised its offer of more than $6 billion for Fraser and Neave's (F&N) stake in the maker of Tiger beer as it tries to fend off a Thai rival, a source close to the situation said today.The Dutch brewer's revised offer for Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) of 53 Singapore dollars per share compares to its earlier bid of S$50 and a partial offer by the Thai billionaire's group of S$55 per APB share.Heineken, the world's third biggest brewer, is seeking control of Asia Pacific Breweries to gain a larger slice of one of the last beer markets that is still growing rapidly.But Heineken's efforts have been complicated by Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, Thailand's second-richest man, as he tries to expand his Thai Beverage empire in the Southeast Asian market.The source said Heineken had raised its offer for the 58% of APB which it does not already own. That includes the 40% of APB held by its long-time partner Fraser and Neave, a drinks and property conglomerate.But it was not clear the new offer would seal the deal, the source said. Both Heineken and F&N declined to comment.Sources had earlier said a sweetened offer could depend on F&N not accepting the partial Thai bid. It was not clear whether the new offer was conditional.ThaiBev recently became F&N's largest shareholder with 26.4%. Charoen's son-in-law, through his group Kindest Place, separately offered to buy F&N's direct 7.3% stake in APB at S$55 per share."Heineken's resolve to win APB seems to be very strong," said Andrew Chow, head of research at UOB Kay Hian in Singapore."APB has an extensive distribution network and breweries. Its Tiger brand is also strong in Asia."The Thais have said they want to work with Heineken, but sources close to the situation say it would not be keen to cooperate with a competitor.APB has had nearly 20% annual earnings growth over the last decade.The biggest brand APB brews is Heineken itself, accounting for 30 % of its volume, but it also makes Tiger, Bintang and Anchor and runs 30 breweries in countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia."Heineken just can't afford to lose," said one analyst who did not want to be quoted by name, although he said that even a higher offer could bring another bid from its rival - perhaps even as high as S$60."Still, it sounds like we are reaching the end-game," he said.Among Southeast Asian brewers, APB is the sixth-largest in terms of sales across the Asia Pacific region, behind San Miguel Corp of the Philippines in number one spot and ThaiBev in fourth, according to Euromonitor's latest data for 2011.Trading of APB and F&N shares in Singapore was suspended on Friday pending an announcement.Heineken had said its earlier offer of S$50 a share was a 45% premium to the price of APB shares before it made its bid and the F&N board had agreed to recommend the bid to its shareholders."Heineken wants full control of Asia Pacific Breweries, while Charoen wants a piece of that growth and is positioning himself to gain handsomely if Heineken wants to buy him out in the future," said an investment banking source in London.ABP shares have jumped from under S$35 in mid-July before stake building began to S$50.57 at Thursday's close. F&N shares, meanwhile, have risen from S$7.40 since mid-July to end at S$8.40 on Thursday. Both have hit record highs in recent weeks.The Heineken deal could prompt a breakup of F&N with Coca-Cola keeping an eye on its popular soft-drink 100PLUS, fruit juices, mineral water and dairy products unit, which could be hived off from the Singapore group's property assets.Goldman Sachs is advising F&N, while Citigroup and Credit Suisse are advisers to Heineken. Morgan Stanley and HSBC are advising the Thais.

NEWS,04.08.2012

Spain creeping towards full bailout

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy inched closer today to asking for an EU bailout for his country, but said he needed first to know what conditions would be attached and what form the rescue would take.His comments, at his first post-cabinet meeting news conference since taking office last December, came a day after the European Central Bank signalled it was preparing to buy Spanish and Italian bonds but only after EU bailout funds were triggered and countries had asked for help.A source said separately that Spain would not decide whether to apply for several weeks.Buying bonds and providing aid would all be designed to bring down what have been prohibitive borrowing costs in the indebted countries.Rajoy said he was ready to do what is best for Spain, going far further than he did on Thursday when, during a press appearance with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, Rajoy three times declined to say whether he would seek the aid."I will do, as I always do, what I believe to be in the best interest of the Spanish people," Rajoy said yesterday."We still don't know what these measures are," he said, reference to a comment by ECB President Mario Draghi that the bank was examining non-conventional measures to defend the euro."What I want to know is what these measures are, what they mean and whether they are appropriate and, in light of the circumstances, we will make a decision, but I have still not taken any decision," he said.A source familiar with Rajoy's thinking confirmed this possibility was actively looked at and that Rajoy was ready to bear the political cost of a request.In a letter to Herman Van Rompuy on Friday, Rajoy urged the president of the European Council to work towards creating a euro zone-wide banking and fiscal union as soon as possible.He said he believed that the outline for a single supervisory system for the banking sector should be ready before the end of this year.Rajoy added he believed granting the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent bailout fund, a banking licence that would allow it to tap almost unlimited funds from the European Central Bank (ECB)ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday said the fund was barred by European law from tapping the central bank for funding."In any case, whatever mechanism is put into place should be an umbrella mechanism, one that is applied equally to all the countries that meet its requirements," Rajoy said in the letter.Spain has already asked for aid for its stricken banks."People have said the main reason why he is not seeking help is because he is too proud. But this is not true. He requested an assistance for the banks because it was the adequate instrument to solve a specific problem. There is no opposition to do it again," the source said.An aid request would entail negotiating a memorandum of understanding with other euro zone countries and would likely bear strong conditionality, something Rajoy wants to discuss in detail before moving forward.Although Spain already complies with stringent EU and International Monetary Fund demands to reform its economy and has announced a package of 65 billion euros of tax hikes and spending cuts in July, the government fears it could now be asked to reform further the pension system.The measure is the last campaign pledge Rajoy has not been forced to break so far and could undermine even more the support for the government after it already fell sharply in recent weeks as hundreds of thousands of Spaniards took the streets to protests against austerity steps.A euro zone official told Reuters last week Spain had for the first time conceded at a meeting between Economy Minister Luis de Guindos and his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble it might need a full bailout worth 300 billion euros if it's borrowing costs remain unsustainably high.Rajoy's office however denied that talks on this issue had taken place.People who discussed the question with Rajoy explain that he may still hope to avoid making the request because he thinks by just knowing that the EU rescue funds and the ECB are geared up would be enough to shield Spain from market pressures."The thinking is that the instruments need to be in place and possibly the risk premium will go down so much that there will be no need to go any further," said one senior politician.

Euro Crisis 2012: Greece Reportedly Saved From Bankruptcy By European Central Bank

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has saved Greece from bankruptcy for the time being by securing it interim financing in the form of additional emergency loans from the Bank of Greece, German newspaper Die Welt said on Saturday.The ECB's Governing Council agreed at its meeting on Thursday to increase the upper limit for the amount of Greek short-term loans the Bank of Greece can accept in exchange for emergency loans, the newspaper said in an advance copy of the article due to appear in its Saturday edition.Until now the Bank of Greece could only accept T-Bills up to a limit of 3 billion euros ($3.70 billion) as collateral for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) but it has applied to have this limit increased to 7 billion euros, the daily said, citing central bank sources.The ECB Governing Council gave this wish the green light, the paper said.The move should enable the Greek government to access up to an extra 4 billion euros of funds, the paper said, adding that this should ensure the country keeps its head above water until the "troika" of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund decide on the disbursement of the next tranche of money from its aid program in September.The ECB declined to comment, the paper said.

NEWS,23.03.2012.

          Dmitry Rogozin Appointed Special Presidential Representative for Transnistria

On March 21, outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev appointed Dmitry Rogozin as Special Representative of the Russian President for Transnistria (“po Pridnestrovyu”). Undoubtedly, Medvedev acted at the behest of the incoming president, Vladimir Putin. On that same date, Putin – in the final days of his prime-ministerial tenure – appointed Rogozin as chairman of the Russian side of the Russia-Moldova inter-governmental cooperation commission. In the event that Medvedev and Putin swap places, Rogozin will be working for Medvedev on this commission and in the Russian government (Interfax, March 21, 22).Rogozin will continue serving as Russia’s deputy prime minister responsible for the armaments industry. In February 2011, then-president Medvedev appointed Rogozin as presidential special representative for missile-defense negotiations with the US and NATO (a position now about to devolve to president-elect Putin’s portfolio). Rogozin served as Russia’s envoy to NATO from January 2008 to December 2011 (under Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov, at least theoretically).Concurrent assignments, dual or even multiple, are not uncommon in the Russian government. Rogozin’s assignment to handle Transnistria, however, is highly unconventional (as is his character) and not immediately explicable. At one time in his variegated career, Rogozin had served as presidential special representative on matters of Kaliningrad Oblast (2002-2004). That oblast, like Transnistria, is a Russian-garrisoned exclave, a non-contiguous territory. (Transnistria is sometimes referenced as a de facto Kaliningrad on the Nistru River, despite the different legal status of the two territories). Rogozin’s Kaliningrad experience may have been a factor, but not a major one in the decision to appoint him as Putin’s representative on Transnistria.Rogozin’s “Transnistria” assignment will almost certainly cover both local issues and the international negotiating process. Announcing Rogozin’s appointment, the Kremlin’s press office cited Rogozin’s experience as an international negotiator in his previous postings. Rogozin’s “Moldova” assignment, on the other hand, seems confined to economic and social issues between Russia and right-bank Moldova, apparently excluding Transnistria (left-bank Moldova) from the purview of the Russia-Moldova inter-governmental commission. In line with Russia’s constitutional system, Rogozin will apparently be reporting to President Putin on Transnistria issues, and to Russia’s prime minister (possibly Medvedev who appointed him formally) on rump-Moldova issues. If so, Rogozin’s bifurcated appointment is designed to treat the two parts of Moldova separately from each other and institutionalize the country’s division. Inserting Rogozin into the negotiating process on Transnistria (or any issue) would be a recipe for its disruption. His track record at NATO is one of systematic confrontation, verbal aggression, and (while playing a relatively weak hand for Russia) seeking psychological ascendancy over Western counterparts through insulting behavior. While Putin himself resorts to such tactics from time to time, Rogozin did so methodically during his tenure at NATO. Moldova has reacted to Rogozin’s appointment with palpable confusion. Moldova’s Foreign Affairs Ministry “takes cognizance of [Russia’s] decision with surprise. On the one hand, it might confirm the importance that Russia assigns to the conflict-resolution process. On the other hand, this move was not discussed in advance with Moldova’s authorities. [Moldova] will seek appropriate clarifications” (Moldpres, March 22). For its part, Tiraspol has issued a self-assured statement welcoming Rogozin’s appointment and expressing confidence in his effectiveness (Olvia-press, March 22)The 5+2 negotiating format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, US, EU, Chisinau, Tiraspol) is the only format accepted by all sides as legitimate, but it has remained inactive from 2006 to 2011, and is not fully reactivated yet. Thus far, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry has handled the negotiations through mid-level diplomats, under supervision from State Secretary Grigory Karasin and Russia’s Security Council. Inserting Rogozin would change the level of institutional and personal authority over the negotiations on the Russian side.Outside the 5+2 format, Germany seeks a special role for itself in a would-be Russo-German bilateral format. Envisaged by Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Medvedev in their 2009 Meseberg Memorandum, this channel has not materialized in any shape other than informal contacts thus far. Apparently seeking to carve out a German role in these negotiations, German diplomats seek to nudge Chisinau into unilateral concessions in the 5+2 process, although Germany is not a member of that process. Inducing Moldovan concessions in 5+2 from outside 5+2 would distort that process; but might, at that price, qualify Berlin in Moscow’s eyes for starting together the Meseberg process. With Medvedev’s departure from office, and Medvedev’s sudden appointment of Rogozin as Putin’s special representative for Transnistria, the Meseberg process seems to be headed nowhere.During his posting as envoy to NATO, Rogozin occasionally boasted that he had personally fought in Transnistria against Moldovans in the 1992 armed conflict. This sounds exaggerated, but it is a fact that Rogozin visited Transnistria in 1992 (quite possibly also thereafter) in his capacity as a left-nationalist Russian politician. From the early 1990s until 2008, Rogozin was the leader of a whole series of ultra-nationalist organizations and parties, focusing on Russia’s “near abroad” and an empire-rebuilding agenda. These organizations included the Congress of Russian Communities (in two iterations), Rodina, and a few obscure and ephemeral ones. As a politician, Rogozin operated at times through “projects” of the authorities, at times on his own. His projects were serial failures until 2008, when Putin rescued him from the political gutter and appointed him as Russia’s envoy to NATO. That appointment was in itself a calculated insult to the Alliance.While Chisinau seems confused about the significance of Rogozin’s latest presidential appointment, Berlin must be wondering what may become of its Meseberg process if its fate comes to depend on Rogozin.